2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

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FNK
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2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by FNK »

It's time to prove again that the smartest investors are unable to tell the future. Here's a free-form addition to the more formalized contests (the hedge fund contest and S&P predictions).

What's your 2014 prediction?

Rules:
  • Interesting is better than boring. "Markets will trade" is boring.
  • Measurable is better than not. "The Euro/Dollar exchange rate will hit 1:1" is measurable.
  • Relevant is better than irrelevant. This is an investing forum, and rules still apply!
  • Multiple entries are allowed, but dilute your interestingness equity.
  • Early is better than late. Make your entries before New Year.
In a year, let's check in and see who got the most interesting investing prediction that turned out to be true.

I'll start with:

US Inflation will exceed 2.5%.
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VictoriaF
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by VictoriaF »

Bitcoins will be selling between $200 and $300. At the moment, the exchange rate 1 BTC = $640.57999 USD.

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)
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VictoriaF
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by VictoriaF »

Jack Bogle will win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)
MnD
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by MnD »

I'll limit my prognostication to the three-fund portfolio in 2014.....

Total Bond Market will have another negative return year in 2014 - the first back to back calendar year decline for the fund and the underlying Aggregate Bond Index.
The 2014 decline in TBM will be greater than the 2013 decline.
Total Stock Market Fund will return between +10% and +20%.
Total International Stock Fund will return between +20% and +30%.
You read it here first! :mrgreen:
70/30 AA for life, Global market cap equity. Rebalance if fixed income <25% or >35%. Weighted ER< .10%. 5% of annual portfolio balance SWR, Proportional (to AA) withdrawals.
larrydmsn
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by larrydmsn »

Emerging Markets stocks will outperform US stocks, just to vindicate my thus far futile rebalancing into EM this year :)
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Boglenaut
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by Boglenaut »

MnD wrote:I'll limit my prognostication to the three-fund portfolio in 2014.....

Total Bond Market will have another negative return year in 2014 - the first back to back calendar year decline for the fund and the underlying Aggregate Bond Index.
The 2014 decline in TBM will be greater than the 2013 decline.
Total Stock Market Fund will return between +10% and +20%.
Total International Stock Fund will return between +20% and +30%.
You read it here first! :mrgreen:
This is very plausible. But say TSM between 0 and +10%.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by dewey »

Small caps will not exceed the 2014 return of TSM.
“The only freedom that is of enduring importance is freedom of intelligence…” John Dewey
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InvestorNewb
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by InvestorNewb »

International will outperform domestic.
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by abuss368 »

International equity funds will outperform the US.

The International REIT fund will pay a larger dividend in the first three quarters.

The Total Bond Index benchmark will be updated finally!

International bonds will continue to be avoided by most investors!
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by cfs »

Leaders, good morning/afternoon/evening

Thanks for asking.

And just for the fun of it, here is this for those playing in the Wall Street Casino.

Financials (VFH) will be Vanguard's top ETF in 2014, with Health Care (VHT) finishing a distant second.

Muchas Gracias and have a Merry Christmas.
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by Leeraar »

GLD, SPDR Gold Trust (ETF), now at 116, will end 2014 at 100.

L.
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camaro327
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by camaro327 »

Okay, how about:

S&P hits 2,000 sometime in 2014.
10 year treasury at 3.5% by year end.
Short term fed funds rate still at 0% by year end.
Longtimelurker
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by Longtimelurker »

International will return > 20%
US Equities will return 8% - 15%
Total Bond Market will return 0%
REIT's will return 0%

All in nominal terms.
Stay the course. If you can't resist greed, and fear is proven to be 2x as strong, you are doomed as an investor.
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czeckers
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by czeckers »

I predict something unexpected will happen that will result in an unanticipated change in the direction of the markets.

Not very interesting I know.
The Espresso portfolio: | | 20% US TSM, 20% Small Value, 10% US REIT, 10% Dev Int'l, 10% EM, 10% Commodities, 20% Inter-term US Treas | | "A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step."
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Chan_va
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by Chan_va »

Glass half empty view

We will have a black swan event (is that a contradiction in terms?), with at least 3 daily swings of +- 5%.

TSM will end near flat on the year in real terms, with inflation rising.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by FillorKill »

The real rate on Ibonds will increase.
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Cosmo
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by Cosmo »

It will be confirmed in 2014 that beer actually tastes great and is not less filling.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by englishgirl »

I'm going to win a bunch of money. Somehow. A giant check is going to find its way to me, and I'm going to be very happy with it. :D

Oh, and stocks will gain 20%.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by Fallible »

englishgirl wrote:I'm going to win a bunch of money. Somehow. A giant check is going to find its way to me, and I'm going to be very happy with it. :D

Oh, and stocks will gain 20%.
As predictions go, this is the best I've seen. And I'll take it further: the check won't bounce and it will arrive early January, in time to buy low (sort of) in a market about to soar that 20 percent (or more). I will then spend the entire year abroad.
:moneybag
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
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Cut-Throat
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by Cut-Throat »

I will catch lots of Big Fish in 2014.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by Leeraar »

There will be an unexpected downturn. CAPE metrics will then be rejiggered and recalibrated and CAPE adherents will continue to claim that it has always worked, to at least two decimal places.

L.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")
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ram
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by ram »

1. Intt stocks will do better than US stocks.
2.EM will do better than total Intt.
Ram
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by joe8d »

VictoriaF wrote:Bitcoins will be selling between $200 and $300. At the moment, the exchange rate 1 BTC = $640.57999 USD.

Victoria
Some enterprising Boglehead will developed the "Boglehead Buck" to compete with Bitcoins :D
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by cheese_breath »

Some prognosticator will hit it right, and the financial talking heads will fall all over him with praises. He will write a book on his methodology, and it will sell millions of copies even through he was wrong the preceding nine years.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by stlutz »

The returns of the VG Smallcap Value fund will once again trail the Smallcap Growth fund.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by livesoft »

Emerging markets stocks will lose money in 2014. That is VWO/VEIEX will have negative return for 2014. But some folks will still make money in it by buying on the dips.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by VictoriaF »

joe8d wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:Bitcoins will be selling between $200 and $300. At the moment, the exchange rate 1 BTC = $640.57999 USD.

Victoria
Some enterprising Boglehead will developed the "Boglehead Buck" to compete with Bitcoins :D
That would definitely buck the trend.

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)
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JoMoney
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by JoMoney »

Some sort of "flash crash" "flash freeze" or large scale market anomaly blamed on electronic automated trading...
Growth will continue to outperform Value.
Large will begin to outperform Small.
Some people will buy into "stories" that tell them they can capitalize on this if they would just pick the right "factor" exposure that explains the performance (in hindsight).
U.S. will continue to outperform broad international, Emerging Markets will be especially volatile.
Bond Funds with duration longer than a year or two will be net losers (on a notional marked to market basis).
Energy and Technology will be good sectors, precious metals/mining and real estate not so good...
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
letsgobobby
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by letsgobobby »

TSM will be negative for the year (same as my prediction last year. You can see how good I am at this game.)
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by obgyn65 »

10-year CD rates will exceed 3.5%.
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Re: 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST Registration

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Bogleheads:

On January 1st, Bogleheads can register for the 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST.

Happy Holiday!
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by mike143 »

The S hits the fan.
Nothing is free, someone pays...You can't spend your way to financial freedom.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by TheTimeLord »

Emerging Markets will trail Developed Markets in 2014.
The difference between the top and the bottom of the S&P will be at least 20%, but will end the year up double digits. My guess around 15%.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by pkcrafter »

Ok, Ok, I'm whispering because this is the real deal and I don't want to spread it around too much. I got the straight scoop yesterday right at Christmas dinner. There was a guy at the dinner who works for Ken Fisher Investments and he knows a guy who actually knows Ken Fisher. So it's the straight scoop. Can you believe I was just lucky enough to be there? The guy says...

shhhh...the guy glances around the room, leans in and says in a low voice, there will be a correction followed by a rise of 16-17%. Load up, he says!

I then asked him how much the correction would be and he gave the look, and I knew I had gone too far. I can't tell you, he said flatly. Oh, he knew all right, it was just that he could not give out any more information. But, hey, I got the most important tip.

cheers,

Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by Leeraar »

pkcrafter wrote:Ok, Ok, I'm whispering because this is the real deal and I don't want to spread it around too much. I got the straight scoop yesterday right at Christmas dinner. There was a guy at the dinner who works for Ken Fisher Investments and he knows a guy who actually knows Ken Fisher. So it's the straight scoop. Can you believe I was just lucky enough to be there? The guy says...

shhhh...the guy glances around the room, leans in and says in a low voice, there will be a correction followed by a rise of 16-17%. Load up, he says!

I then asked him how much the correction would be and he gave the look, and I knew I had gone too far. I can't tell you, he said flatly. Oh, he knew all right, it was just that he could not give out any more information. But, hey, I got the most important tip.

cheers,

Paul
I hope he did not get your name. Fisher's sales people are very tenacious.

L.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by technovelist »

Gold bullion will outperform TSM.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by MassInvestor »

Barrick will hit 40 by the year's end.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by Leeraar »

On December 26 2014 there will be a blizzard of messages on the Bogleheads Forums: "Why did my Vanguard fund drop in value?"

L.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")
IMD801
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by IMD801 »

Savings account rates will exceed 1% in 2014
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by Mill »

China will experience a real estate bubble burst like we did in 2008.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by SP-diceman »

Market prices will fluctuate.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by countdown »

Leeraar wrote:
On December 26 2014 there will be a blizzard of messages on the Bogleheads Forums: "Why did my Vanguard fund drop in value?"

L


Realize this is a fun prediction thread, but I have to say that this is the third thread to contain 'piling on' sarcasm at the expense of new investors reaching out to Bogleheads for information and education about dividends and distributions.
It sure must be nice to have never had a learning curve.

Perhaps those too cool and experienced to tolerate such newbies should seek a more elite club where the riff-raff aren't allowed in.
Sorry, but the mean spirited sarcasm chills good faith questions, and really offends the spirit of this site, John Bogle's work, as well as the good work of Taylor, Mel, and many, many other generous people on this site.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by SP-diceman »

Yield will be the new black.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by Call_Me_Op »

Yield on the 10 year treasury will be higher.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by seamonkey »

"Stay the course" will become a popular internet / social media meme.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by peppers »

The Siri of Finance will top 20,000.
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by sscritic »

peppers wrote:The Siri of Finance will top 20,000.
Not if I can help it. :)

[ "I can't help myself" Four Tops]
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by peppers »

sscritic wrote:
peppers wrote:The Siri of Finance will top 20,000.
Not if I can help it. :)
lol
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by noyopacific »

pkcrafter wrote:Ok, Ok, I'm whispering . . . There was a guy at the dinner who works for Ken Fisher Investments . . . Can you believe I was just lucky enough to be there? The guy says... (Ken F says) there will be a correction followed by a rise of 16-17%. Load up, he says! Paul
This friend of Ken Fisher's employee's, friend spilled the beans on MY PREDICTION . . .

#1 To make it even better, I'm advising that my followers go to 100% equities as soon as the market corrects by 10% and then return to their normal age-based bond allocations after a subsequent gain of 20%
#2 The Consumer Price Index (inflation) will increase over 4% in 2014
#3 Global demand will cause the price of oil to increase by more than 10%
#4 Income investors will rediscover utility stocks & utility funds (VPU currently yielding 3.7%) as an alternative to bonds & TIP's. (And VPU will beat the S&P500 in 2014)
#5 A cure will be discovered for Metabolic Syndrome (obesity, type II diabetes, hypertension and high cholesterol) the cure will be based on a simple diet and exercise program.
The information contained herein, while not guaranteed by us, has been obtained from from sources which have not in the past proved particularly reliable.
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Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Post by garlandwhizzer »

US equities will have a positive year but not as strong as last year.
EMs will do better this year than last year.
Bonds will have another lackluster year in general and Corporates will outperform Treasuries and TIPS.
US small cap outperformance relative to large caps will decline or disappear next year.
All predictions, including these, should be viewed skeptically. The trouble with predictions, as Yogi Berra said, is the future.

Garland Whizzer
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