madsinger monthly report (November 2013)

[madsinger]

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their November 2013 returns, 2013 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2003, 2008 and 2010 (14 years 11 months, 10 years 11 months, 5 years 11 months, 3 years 11 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 59/5/3/33 stock/REIT/PM/bond.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                     CAGR    CAGR     CAGR     CAGR
                    Nov     YTD      since   since    since    since
                    2013    2013     2010    2008     2003     1999
Hot Hands          4.22%   40.31%   17.55%   3.07%   12.90%   12.59%
Sheltered Sam      1.52%   22.17%   13.15%   4.75%   10.56%    7.47%
VFINX              3.03%   28.93%   15.35%   5.77%    8.89%    4.43%
                  
Newsletter G       2.66%   31.00%   14.29%   5.81%   10.91%    9.57%
Newsletter G-IND   2.33%   27.60%   15.11%   5.59%   10.44%    6.21%
s&d                0.84%   17.24%   11.31%   5.18%   10.02%    7.51%
3 fund             1.53%   18.73%   10.91%   4.74%    9.26%    5.71%
LS G               1.58%   19.22%   11.53%   3.95%    8.46%    4.98%

Code: Select all

Newsletter CG      2.50%   27.30%   13.44%   5.91%    9.89%    7.84%
Wellington         1.93%   17.93%   11.46%   6.51%    9.12%    7.40%
coffeehouse        0.74%   13.53%   10.65%   6.19%    8.83%    7.18%
STAR               1.48%   16.23%   10.69%   5.75%    8.50%    6.68%
LS MG              1.14%   13.82%    9.86%   4.23%    7.60%    5.15%
                  
Newsletter Inc     1.82%   17.20%   11.42%   6.02%    7.60%    5.52%
Wellesley          0.78%    8.31%    9.87%   7.24%    7.35%    6.93%
LS CG              0.67%    8.54%    7.77%   4.02%    6.39%    4.99%
                  
madsinger          1.20%   15.97%   10.62%   5.08%      

[midareff]

very interesting, thanks for sharing.

[madsinger]

Another strong month for US stocks, with most categories up around 3% for the month. Internationals ranged from up (Europe 1%) to flat (Pacific 0%) to negative (Emerging market down -2%). Bonds were down (Total Bond -0.35%). REITs and Precious Metals fell hard for the month (-5.2% and -6.7% respectively). Portfolios holding these "specials" felt the blow (yup...I'm talking to YOU, madsinger!)

Portfolios holding mostly US stocks fared the best, everything else trailed accordingly.

All in all, a pretty strong year of returns so far, but the range of returns seems much larger this year than in past years, due to the widely varying returns of the asset classes this year. This feels like one of those years where "the index" (i.e. S&P 500) is bound to look pretty strong against most other diversified portfolios.

-Brad.

[gkaplan]

Good year for small-caps.

[jmndu99]

Thanks once again for keeping this up Brad.

Jim

[investor]

Thanks Brad.

Wellington still doing just fine.

investor

[Robert T]

Good year for small-caps.

Very good year for US Small Caps so far. YTD returns through to end Nov. 2013

Vanguard TSM = 28.2%
Vanguard Small Cap = 34.3%
Bridgeway Ultra-Small Company Market (BRSIX) = 48.4%

For US Value:

iShares S&P 600 Value = 36.3%
Powershares Fundamental Pure Small Value = 40.3%

And for Weiner's 'growth' portfolio. Must be heavily tilted to US. And from earlier threads, the funds he likes did fairly well this year:

Capital opportunity= 39.8%
Selected Value = 38.0%
Dividend growth = 29.2%
Healthcare = 36.9%

Not the time to now load up on US smallcaps - GMO expected 7-yr real returns for US small = -4.2%, for US large = -1.3%, compared to non-US developed mkt small = +1.0%, and non-US developed mkt large = +1.4%. Obviously no guarantees.

Stay the course.

Robert
.

[bengal22]

Thanks for the data. I use the coffeehouse and 3 fund portfolio(as well as the Vanguard Target 2015) to benchmark my portfolio.

who dey?

[cfs]

Thanks Brad, I have looked forward to this monthly report for years, and I see the madsinger portfolio ahead of the W2D2 (Wellington/Wellesley Dynamic Duo). //fig//

[LadyGeek]

Also, thanks. The Vanguard STAR fund (VGSTX) was my first and only retirement fund until I got talked out of it by an Ameriprise Advisor, circa 2008. Fast forward a few years, I'm back in Vanguard with a 3-fund portfolio (+TIPS) and a target retirement fund. I would have done just fine if I had left things alone...