POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.

Will the Black Friday market (S&P500) close in the Green or Red?

Poll ended at Sat Nov 30, 2013 7:14 pm

Very Green: X > 1%
8
11%
Green: 0% < X < 1%
38
54%
Yellow: X = 0%
12
17%
Red: -1% < X < 0%
11
15%
Very Red: -5% < X < -1%
1
1%
CRASH! X < -5%
1
1%
 
Total votes: 71

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VictoriaF
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POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by VictoriaF » Thu Nov 28, 2013 7:14 pm

So what do you think is going to happen tomorrow to S&P500?

Victoria
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by pjstack » Thu Nov 28, 2013 7:22 pm

Is there a prize??
pjstack

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VictoriaF
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by VictoriaF » Thu Nov 28, 2013 7:29 pm

pjstack wrote:Is there a prize??
Some bragging rights if you tell us today what you think will happen tomorrow, and you are right.

Victoria
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by Ged » Thu Nov 28, 2013 7:32 pm

VictoriaF wrote:So what do you think is going to happen tomorrow to S&P500?

Victoria
At the end of the day it will be a decimal number.

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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by VictoriaF » Thu Nov 28, 2013 7:34 pm

Ged wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:So what do you think is going to happen tomorrow to S&P500?

Victoria
At the end of the day it will be a decimal number.
Won't it be transmitted as a binary?

Victoria
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by livesoft » Thu Nov 28, 2013 8:12 pm

So who looked at the futures market and saw what is happening, then voted?
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by The Wizard » Thu Nov 28, 2013 8:13 pm

The futures markets are quite fickle from what I've seen.
Short session tomorrow, S&P will end up fractionally, way less than 1%...
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by joe8d » Thu Nov 28, 2013 8:14 pm

Low volume days are usually positive.
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by Ged » Thu Nov 28, 2013 8:17 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
Ged wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:So what do you think is going to happen tomorrow to S&P500?

Victoria
At the end of the day it will be a decimal number.
Won't it be transmitted as a binary?

Victoria
A binary representation of a decimal number.

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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by sometimesinvestor » Thu Nov 28, 2013 9:01 pm

livesoft wrote:So who looked at the futures market and saw what is happening, then voted?
I looked at Japan which was down a little and the Hang Seng which was upa littlemore and then went with thats its usually an up day historically though not so much recently. In the 20th century betting the day after Thanks giving was up was a pretty good bet.

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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by tim1999 » Thu Nov 28, 2013 9:06 pm

Up 2 points.

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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by gkaplan » Thu Nov 28, 2013 9:38 pm

Some options missing from this poll:

I don't know.

I don't care.

I don't know, and I don't care.

What's Black Friday?
Gordon

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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by pennstater2005 » Thu Nov 28, 2013 9:41 pm

I just heard the term today, "Brown Thursday". Seriously :oops:
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by Jim180 » Thu Nov 28, 2013 11:02 pm

As I cast my vote the futures are pointing higher.

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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by JoMoney » Thu Nov 28, 2013 11:23 pm

I voted Yellow 0%... but really I think that's highly unlikely. I think it will be a relatively low-volume day with almost no real change +/- < 0.20%
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by umfundi » Thu Nov 28, 2013 11:33 pm

So, I decide to rebalance, and the whole world cares? My trades have been submitted, and I have a stern admonishment from Vanguard they cannot be changed.

I think the market will be down slightly, since few are paying attention. Let's say, -28.3 on the Dow.

I do wish someone would do some data mining to correlate the Detroit Lions' performance in the Thursday Thanksgiving football game to the market on the next day, Friday. Lions' score, opponents' score, margin of loss (or victory) ... There has to be something that fits. Number on the winning quarterback's jersey?

Keith :P
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by fishnskiguy » Fri Nov 29, 2013 12:03 am

My SWAG: Dow up 19.0, S&P down .75.

But who knows?

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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by cheese_breath » Fri Nov 29, 2013 12:13 am

Darn, it's already tomorrow. Am I too late to vote? The markets haven't opened yet, at least not in the U.S.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by Kalo » Fri Nov 29, 2013 1:08 am

On the one hand, it's going to be a light volume day. On the other hand, China is flying war planes over the islands being disputed by Japan, S Korea, others(?), with the US taking a side against China.

I predict a moderate up day, or a drastic down day, with the possibility of a flat day.

My official prediction is green and that's how I'm voting.

Kalo
"When people say they have a high risk tolerance, what they really mean is that they are willing to make a lot of money." -- Ben Stein/Phil DeMuth - The Little Book of Bullet Proof Investing.

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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by dewey » Fri Nov 29, 2013 1:37 am

gkaplan wrote:Some options missing from this poll:

I don't know.

I don't care.

I don't know, and I don't care.

What's Black Friday?
+1. Very good.
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by VictoriaF » Fri Nov 29, 2013 9:18 am

umfundi wrote:So, I decide to rebalance, and the whole world cares? My trades have been submitted, and I have a stern admonishment from Vanguard they cannot be changed.

I think the market will be down slightly, since few are paying attention. Let's say, -28.3 on the Dow.

I do wish someone would do some data mining to correlate the Detroit Lions' performance in the Thursday Thanksgiving football game to the market on the next day, Friday. Lions' score, opponents' score, margin of loss (or victory) ... There has to be something that fits. Number on the winning quarterback's jersey?

Keith :P
The pre-opening Bogleheads Equities Expectation Poll, BEEP, is currently favorable to your trade. The correlation with Detroit Lions will become apparent at the closing.

Cheers,
Victoria
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by Cosmo » Fri Nov 29, 2013 9:36 am

VictoriaF wrote:So what do you think is going to happen tomorrow to S&P500?

Victoria
Didn't you know that the term "Black Friday" is offensive to some?? The politically correct term is "Moron-American Friday".

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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by sperry8 » Fri Nov 29, 2013 11:46 am

Cosmo wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:So what do you think is going to happen tomorrow to S&P500?

Victoria
Didn't you know that the term "Black Friday" is offensive to some?? The politically correct term is "Moron-American Friday".
LOL! :sharebeer
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by cheese_breath » Fri Nov 29, 2013 12:25 pm

Cosmo wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:So what do you think is going to happen tomorrow to S&P500?

Victoria
Didn't you know that the term "Black Friday" is offensive to some?? The politically correct term is "Moron-American Friday".
Us morons is offensive by that. :twisted:
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by VictoriaF » Fri Nov 29, 2013 1:01 pm

And the answer is .... Yellow! X=0% for all practical purposes.

Victoria
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by livesoft » Fri Nov 29, 2013 1:18 pm

It almost seems like lots of orders to sell rebalance out of equities were kept by fund managers until the last few minutes of the session when they said, "Uh-oh, we better do these exchanges that folks asked for."

Or maybe those managers at Vanguard did sell early in the day and then drove prices lower at the end, so that all shareholders got lower after-close NAV and the Vanguard managers got a bonus?
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by umfundi » Fri Nov 29, 2013 1:37 pm

umfundi wrote: I think the market will be down slightly, since few are paying attention. Let's say, -28.3 on the Dow.
That's not the winning prediction?

I have downloaded all the Thanksgiving Day football scores, and the DJIA history for the day after. My newsletter will be announced shortly. :P

Keith
Déjà Vu is not a prediction

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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by umfundi » Fri Nov 29, 2013 1:41 pm

livesoft wrote:It almost seems like lots of orders to sell rebalance out of equities were kept by fund managers until the last few minutes of the session when they said, "Uh-oh, we better do these exchanges that folks asked for."

Or maybe those managers at Vanguard did sell early in the day and then drove prices lower at the end, so that all shareholders got lower after-close NAV and the Vanguard managers got a bonus?
So, the livesoft theory is that since people rebalance on Black Friday, the market direction will be the opposite of the YTD trend? Sounds quite plausible to me!

Keith
Déjà Vu is not a prediction

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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by VictoriaF » Fri Nov 29, 2013 1:53 pm

Today feels like the top of a roller-coaster. There was a long slow thrilling rise. There is a momentary hesitation at the top. And pretty soon it will rush down, at which time we'll raise our arms and yell Ahhhhhh at the top of our voices.

Victoria
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by Buckeye » Fri Nov 29, 2013 2:04 pm

ooops nevermind...closed early today.
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by VictoriaF » Fri Nov 29, 2013 2:07 pm

WARNING:

At the market close there were 8 yellows. At the moment, there are 10. Watch out for the fakes!

Victoria
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by SpringMan » Fri Nov 29, 2013 2:09 pm

S&P 500 -0.08%
Dow -0.07%
Nasdaq +0.37%

Two reds and a green, hindsight is 20-20.
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by VictoriaF » Fri Nov 29, 2013 2:10 pm

SpringMan wrote:S&P 500 -0.08%
Dow -0.07%
Nasdaq +0.37%

Two reds and a green, hindsight is 20-20.
The poll was about S&P500. 0.08 is practically 0, don't you think?

Victoria
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by Ed 2 » Fri Nov 29, 2013 2:11 pm

Buckeye wrote:S&P 500 should close up just over 1%. About 1826.
say's who? God?

I love when Bogleheads trying time the market. :)
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by Leif » Fri Nov 29, 2013 2:15 pm

You should have given a range for yellow. What are the chances that the market would close at EXACTLY 0%?

Plus today is a half day trading. Looks like that was not understood based on the poll closing time.

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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by SpringMan » Fri Nov 29, 2013 2:17 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
SpringMan wrote:S&P 500 -0.08%
Dow -0.07%
Nasdaq +0.37%

Two reds and a green, hindsight is 20-20.
The poll was about S&P500. 0.08 is practically 0, don't you think?

Victoria
Sure but the OP defined RED as
Red: -1% < X < 0%
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by VictoriaF » Fri Nov 29, 2013 2:24 pm

SpringMan wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:
SpringMan wrote:S&P 500 -0.08%
Dow -0.07%
Nasdaq +0.37%

Two reds and a green, hindsight is 20-20.
The poll was about S&P500. 0.08 is practically 0, don't you think?

Victoria
Sure but the OP defined RED as
Red: -1% < X < 0%
I thought of giving a range for yellow, something like -0.1 < X < +0.1, but I then I decided that it would indicate unnecessary precision. The colors Green/Yellow/Red are more in the spirit of the poll.

And lest you think I am being defensive, I myself did not vote for Yellow. I voted for Green to help Keith.

Victoria
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by pezblanco » Fri Nov 29, 2013 2:31 pm

Ed 2 wrote:
Buckeye wrote:S&P 500 should close up just over 1%. About 1826.
say's who? God?

I love when Bogleheads trying time the market. :)
It's not timing the market, it's strategic over-rebalancing due to us having attained 75% of our goals but be warned, it's only for the most sophisticated and experienced of investors ...... like us.

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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by baw703916 » Fri Nov 29, 2013 2:43 pm

Well, the S&P and Dow are down, but my portfolio is up slightly (due to small cap and international). So it's a little confusing.

I plan to stay the course at least until Monday. ;)
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.

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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by Leif » Fri Nov 29, 2013 2:44 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
The poll was about S&P500. 0.08 is practically 0, don't you think?

Victoria
I agree close, but the programmer in me would not allow me to accept it.

What is the saying, close only applies for horseshoes and handgrenades?

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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by VictoriaF » Fri Nov 29, 2013 2:45 pm

baw703916 wrote:Well, the S&P and Dow are down, but my portfolio is up slightly (due to small cap and international). So it's a little confusing.

I plan to stay the course at least until Monday. ;)
Hi Brad,

You have to specify the Monday.

Victoria
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by Ed 2 » Fri Nov 29, 2013 3:25 pm

pezblanco wrote:
Ed 2 wrote:
Buckeye wrote:S&P 500 should close up just over 1%. About 1826.
say's who? God?

I love when Bogleheads trying time the market. :)
It's not timing the market, it's strategic over-rebalancing due to us having attained 75% of our goals but be warned, it's only for the most sophisticated and experienced of investors ...... like us.
Oh yea?! You make call it any way you want.I would't dispute your sophistication as an investor BUT you may not remember how on this forum let say in 2010 when most of this humble forum members were posting only about bond funds and how " not save to buy stocks now". We all are humans and behave like ones most of the time. I personally am following Jacks advise "time is your friend,impulse is your enemy". Never done " strategic over-rebalancing " ,just dollar cost averaging into Index Funds by adding new money according my AA.
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by Kalo » Fri Nov 29, 2013 4:25 pm

Leif wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:
The poll was about S&P500. 0.08 is practically 0, don't you think?

Victoria
I agree close, but the programmer in me would not allow me to accept it.

What is the saying, close only applies for horseshoes and handgrenades?
And in dancing.

:shock:

Kalo
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by nisiprius » Fri Nov 29, 2013 5:00 pm

VictoriaF wrote:Today feels like the top of a roller-coaster. There was a long slow thrilling rise. There is a momentary hesitation at the top. And pretty soon it will rush down, at which time we'll raise our arms and yell Ahhhhhh at the top of our voices.

Victoria
Beware the human desire for drama. From 7/31/1982 to 4/30/1983, the stock market gained 60% in just 9 months and then... didn't crash. Maybe not a "permanently high plateau," to echo Irving Fisher's poorly chosen words of 1929, but "plateau" seems fair. A slow gentle decline, a slow gentle rise, and then a good climb for about 3 years.

Image

But, you say, what about 1987, bwahahahaha? Well, what about it? 1987 was stunning for the sharpness of the drop, but even in the intermediate term, it only lost one year's gains... it made it back in a couple of years... and then comes the the Great Bull Market of the 1990s.

Image

The point is: no, you just don't know. Really, you don't.
A spectacular climb may be followed by more of the same, e.g. the three years after Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" speech at the end of 1996.
Or, by a crash, as in 2008.
Or, by nothing more than a "correction."
Or, as in 1983, by pretty much a plateau.

I certainly don't want more of the same, like everyone else I'm getting nervous. 20% per year can't go on very long. Perhaps it's crazy optimism even to hope for a non-dramatic end. But it's happened before, and it's possible.
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by chaz » Fri Nov 29, 2013 5:31 pm

The close was mixed.
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by VictoriaF » Fri Nov 29, 2013 6:14 pm

Leif wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:
The poll was about S&P500. 0.08 is practically 0, don't you think?

Victoria
I agree close, but the programmer in me would not allow me to accept it.

What is the saying, close only applies for horseshoes and handgrenades?
The programer in you should have objected to the discontinuities at +1% and -1%. I did not want to add the = sign, because it would look clumsy. Zeros have some family resemblance to Horseshoes and Handgrenades.

Victoria
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by VictoriaF » Fri Nov 29, 2013 6:18 pm

Kalo wrote:
Leif wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:
The poll was about S&P500. 0.08 is practically 0, don't you think?

Victoria
I agree close, but the programmer in me would not allow me to accept it.

What is the saying, close only applies for horseshoes and handgrenades?
And in dancing.

:shock:

Kalo
Today, S&P danced around the yesterday's close and returned to where it started.

Victoria
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by VictoriaF » Fri Nov 29, 2013 6:20 pm

chaz wrote:The close was mixed.
But the mix was close to zero.

Victoria
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by VictoriaF » Fri Nov 29, 2013 6:33 pm

nisiprius wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:Today feels like the top of a roller-coaster. There was a long slow thrilling rise. There is a momentary hesitation at the top. And pretty soon it will rush down, at which time we'll raise our arms and yell Ahhhhhh at the top of our voices.

Victoria
Beware the human desire for drama. From 7/31/1982 to 4/30/1983, the stock market gained 60% in just 9 months and then... didn't crash. Maybe not a "permanently high plateau," to echo Irving Fisher's poorly chosen words of 1929, but "plateau" seems fair. A slow gentle decline, a slow gentle rise, and then a good climb for about 3 years.

Image

But, you say, what about 1987, bwahahahaha? Well, what about it? 1987 was stunning for the sharpness of the drop, but even in the intermediate term, it only lost one year's gains... it made it back in a couple of years... and then comes the the Great Bull Market of the 1990s.

Image

The point is: no, you just don't know. Really, you don't.
A spectacular climb may be followed by more of the same, e.g. the three years after Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" speech at the end of 1996.
Or, by a crash, as in 2008.
Or, by nothing more than a "correction."
Or, as in 1983, by pretty much a plateau.

I certainly don't want more of the same, like everyone else I'm getting nervous. 20% per year can't go on very long. Perhaps it's crazy optimism even to hope for a non-dramatic end. But it's happened before, and it's possible.
Nisi,

Thanks. Your charts look like bunny slopes with the only black diamond in 1987, and even that diamond is nothing to write home about. Where is the action? Where is the suspense? If we are to stay the course, it should be an exciting course.

Victoria
Last edited by VictoriaF on Fri Nov 29, 2013 6:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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JoMoney
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Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

Post by JoMoney » Fri Nov 29, 2013 6:33 pm

nisiprius wrote:...Beware the human desire for drama. From 7/31/1982 to 4/30/1983, the stock market gained 60% in just 9 months and then... didn't crash. Maybe not a "permanently high plateau," to echo Irving Fisher's poorly chosen words of 1929, but "plateau" seems fair. A slow gentle decline, a slow gentle rise, and then a good climb for about 3 years...
Something I find interesting about that time period is that in marked an inflection point on the return on the "size premium". Large-Caps had a 60% run-up, but Small-Caps had a 100% increase leading up to that point. Investors who got in at those lofty heights never really saw much of a "strong and persistent premium".
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