S&P beats 421 Boglehead guesses [2013 Contest]

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Post Reply
User avatar
Topic Author
ray.james
Posts: 1389
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 4:08 am

S&P beats 421 Boglehead guesses [2013 Contest]

Post by ray.james »

I stumbled upon Taylor 2013 contest thread and am surprised to see that the S&P 500 Index beats all Bogleheads and expert guesses :)

http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/con ... fault.aspx
Ain't we all happy? :D

edit: Forum thread: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 0&t=113686 (i guess this can be merged there)
Last edited by ray.james on Fri Nov 22, 2013 2:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
an_asker
Posts: 2742
Joined: Thu Jun 27, 2013 2:15 pm

Re: S&P beats 411 bogleheads guess [2013 contest]

Post by an_asker »

Huh? Just because the top number is 1798 means nothing!
stingray5688
Posts: 195
Joined: Fri Nov 09, 2012 12:58 pm

Re: S&P beats 411 bogleheads guess [2013 contest]

Post by stingray5688 »

i think we are holding out for nisiprius to win :greedy :greedy :greedy
"Don't be emotional about investing. So even a first investment should not be exciting." - livesoft
User avatar
Imperabo
Posts: 1109
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2008 1:00 am

Re: S&P beats 411 bogleheads guess [2013 contest]

Post by Imperabo »

Average Boglehead = 1532
Experts = 1526

At least we're closer than the experts. How did the dart throwing monkey do?
stylebox
Posts: 41
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2012 7:48 pm

Re: S&P beats 411 bogleheads guess [2013 contest]

Post by stylebox »

Imperabo wrote: At least we're closer than the experts. How did the dart throwing monkey do?
The S&P is the dart-throwing monkey.
Sriracha
Posts: 522
Joined: Mon May 31, 2010 12:14 pm

Re: S&P beats 421 bogleheads guess [2013 contest]

Post by Sriracha »

If my shot in the dark had been right, there'd be a lot of threads wondering if we'd hit the low already or if investing more now would be like catching the falling knife...
Don't reach for yield.
User avatar
EternalOptimist
Posts: 829
Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:21 pm
Location: New York

Re: S&P beats 421 bogleheads guess [2013 contest]

Post by EternalOptimist »

This is what is called a "good problem"
"When nothing goes right....go left"
User avatar
nisiprius
Advisory Board
Posts: 42184
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:33 am
Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry

Re: S&P beats 421 bogleheads guess [2013 contest]

Post by nisiprius »

ray.james wrote:...I stumbled upon Taylor 2013 contest thread and am surprised to see that the S&P 500 Index beats all Bogleheads and expert guesses :)...
What do you mean? My entry was 2579.10. They are listed in order of accuracy, not size; closest first. At the moment there are a number of Bogleheads who are somewhat closer than I am. But I am highest.
stingray5688 wrote:i think we are holding out for nisiprius to win :greedy :greedy :greedy
Thank you, thank you. :)

Actually, if I recall correctly, my original entry was way higher than that, but Taylor asked me to change it because it was so high that it was distorting the average for the entire group.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Benn1950
Posts: 79
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2009 8:49 pm
Location: Brick, NJ

Re: S&P beats 421 Bogleheads guess [2013 Contest]

Post by Benn1950 »

I will gladly give up my 14th place if nispirius could be ultimate winner

:sharebeer
FRANK2009
Posts: 426
Joined: Thu Dec 13, 2007 6:16 pm

Re: S&P beats 421 Bogleheads guess [2013 Contest]

Post by FRANK2009 »

Just proves Mr. Bogle is right-"Nobody knows nothing".
User avatar
Topic Author
ray.james
Posts: 1389
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 4:08 am

Re: S&P beats 421 bogleheads guess [2013 contest]

Post by ray.james »

nisiprius wrote:
ray.james wrote:...I stumbled upon Taylor 2013 contest thread and am surprised to see that the S&P 500 Index beats all Bogleheads and expert guesses :)...
What do you mean? My entry was 2579.10. They are listed in order of accuracy, not size; closest first. At the moment there are a number of Bogleheads who are somewhat closer than I am. But I am highest.

Sorry, I read the data wrong. Even then, I can hardly see 10 members above today's S&P. I will gladly take your win :D
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
User avatar
momar
Posts: 1359
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2011 12:51 pm

Re: S&P beats 421 Bogleheads guess [2013 Contest]

Post by momar »

Did they shut down the market for the rest of the year?
"Index funds have a place in your portfolio, but you'll never beat the index with them." - Words of wisdom from a Fidelity rep
SP-diceman
Posts: 3968
Joined: Sun Oct 05, 2008 9:17 am

Re: S&P beats 421 Bogleheads guess [2013 Contest]

Post by SP-diceman »

Prices have reached “what looks to be a permanently high plateau.”
:happy
dickenjb
Posts: 2941
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2010 1:11 pm
Location: Philadelphia PA

Re: S&P beats 421 Bogleheads guess [2013 Contest]

Post by dickenjb »

FRANK2009 wrote:Just proves Mr. Bogle is right-"Nobody knows nothing".
You beat me to it.
Post Reply