Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your age?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.

On the chart, my current age and asset allocation are:

Lower than A
15
4%
Closest to A, ultraconservative
22
6%
Closest to B, conservative
46
13%
Closest to C, conservative-moderate
76
21%
Closest to D, moderate
69
19%
Closest to E, moderate-aggressive
65
18%
Closest to F, aggressive
37
10%
Closest to G ultra-aggressive
16
4%
Higher than G
20
5%
Other (please post explanation)
2
1%
 
Total votes: 368

User avatar
Topic Author
nisiprius
Advisory Board
Posts: 41044
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:33 am
Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry

Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your age?

Post by nisiprius » Thu Oct 31, 2013 4:25 pm

This has been done before but I think this is a new twist. Lines B, D, and F are model glide slopes that Morningstar uses to benchmark target-date funds. Morningstar calls B "conservative," D, "moderate," and F "aggressive." I have interpolated lines C and E halfway between their neighbors. I have extrapolated A by taking line B and subtracting half the difference between B and D, and I have extrapolated G similarly.

Find your age on the X axis, go vertically upward, and find the curve that is closest to your current stock allocation percentage. In calculating your stock allocation, DO NOT include the present value of Social Security, annuities, or pensions. Generally speaking, include assets for which you receive regular statements that state a current market value in dollars--that is to say, brokerage holdings, mutual funds, 401(k) plans. If you have assets that are about as risky as stocks, you can count them as stocks.

This isn't really about Morningstar's methodology; I'm just using their curves as a way to normalize for age, in a way that might be a little better than comparing them to a linear age-in-bonds curve.

Image
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

User avatar
ofcmetz
Posts: 2453
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:09 pm
Location: Louisiana

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by ofcmetz » Thu Oct 31, 2013 4:52 pm

Him 34 and her 37. We have about 57% in equity. Looks like we are super extra ultra conservative.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.

FillorKill
Posts: 1007
Joined: Sat Aug 06, 2011 7:01 am

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by FillorKill » Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:00 pm

My target equates to B but I'm close to C which is near the top of my rather wide band. I hadn't ever thought of this as conservative.

umfundi
Posts: 3361
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2011 5:26 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by umfundi » Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:03 pm

Age 63, I am moderate-aggressive.

Over time, on your chart, I intend to become more aggressive.

In other words, I am not planning to drop my stock allocation much in the future.

Keith
Déjà Vu is not a prediction

columbia
Posts: 2670
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2013 5:30 am

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by columbia » Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:04 pm

45 and 80%.
I generally considered that to be on the aggressive side....Interesting.
If you leave your head in the sand for too long, you might get run over by a Jeep.

User avatar
Topic Author
nisiprius
Advisory Board
Posts: 41044
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:33 am
Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by nisiprius » Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:06 pm

ofcmetz wrote:Him 34 and her 37. We have about 57% in equity. Looks like we are super extra ultra conservative.
Well, remember Adrian Neno's rule? He didn't think anyone should be over 50% ever.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

User avatar
Jake46
Posts: 748
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:16 am
Location: Fort Collins, Colorado

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by Jake46 » Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:08 pm

Age 66, conservative-moderate.

User avatar
smiley
Posts: 102
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2012 7:24 am

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by smiley » Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:13 pm

columbia wrote:45 and 80%.
I generally considered that to be on the aggressive side....Interesting.
i guess age in bonds (close to where I am) is ultra-conservative.

:happy

User avatar
Sheepdog
Posts: 5557
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 3:05 pm
Location: Indiana, retired 1998 at age 65

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by Sheepdog » Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:23 pm

You don't go far enough for old fa.. like me
“One moment of patience may ward off great disaster. One moment of impatience may ruin a whole life.” — Chinese Proverb

bullspooker
Posts: 48
Joined: Tue May 22, 2012 5:13 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by bullspooker » Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:28 pm

Interesting that at my age (36), the difference between conservative (me at 25% bonds) and aggressive is not very large as it is with a person that is older; I think that may alter the results.

gkaplan
Posts: 7034
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 8:34 pm
Location: Portland, Oregon

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by gkaplan » Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:30 pm

Aggressive – Age 70, Equity/Fixed Income=60/40
Gordon

User avatar
Garco
Posts: 728
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2013 2:04 am

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by Garco » Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:31 pm

Charts with choices like this aren't as informative as they might be, since I suspect a majority of posters here have more than a 2-category portfolio. I've got significant money in 5 classes: stocks, real estate, bonds, stable value, and cash. I'm 50% stocks, but far from 50% bonds.

Rodc
Posts: 13601
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:46 am

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by Rodc » Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:34 pm

Before or after I pretend my pension is a bond?

:)

I use real dollars and not pretend dollars so I said D.

If I used pretend dollars it would be more like A.
We live a world with knowledge of the future markets has less than one significant figure. And people will still and always demand answers to three significant digits.

User avatar
grabiner
Advisory Board
Posts: 27147
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 11:58 pm
Location: Columbia, MD

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by grabiner » Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:40 pm

Technically, I am closer to F (age 45 and 90% stock); practically, I am above line G because I am a serious slice-and-dicer and my portfolio has the risk of 100% stock.
Wiki David Grabiner

curmudgeon
Posts: 2057
Joined: Thu Jun 20, 2013 11:00 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by curmudgeon » Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:40 pm

I don't have much use for bonds in the current market conditions, but I'm carrying enough cash to pull me down to G :wink: because I'm retaining some extra flexibility right now. I don't really think of investments as two-dimensional, though. In my case I've got an RE dimension in addition (though it's not currently as regionally diversified as I'd like).

nodenuff2
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 4:08 pm
Location: Deep South

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by nodenuff2 » Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:41 pm

63 and 50% moderate. Just an average boglehead. Right in the sweet spot.
2014 No. 42 2015 No.342 2016 No. 6 2017 238 2018 no. 175 2019 no. 144 6 year average 157.83. Proves I am just an average investor.What do I know? "Good bless America land that I love..."

User avatar
leonidas
Posts: 433
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 8:58 am
Location: Mansfield Township, NJ

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by leonidas » Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:45 pm

43 yo with 46 in equities 5 in gold and the rest in bonds/cash. I have always considered myself moderate - conservative with investing.

Bracket
Posts: 417
Joined: Sun Mar 10, 2013 7:50 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by Bracket » Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:51 pm

At age 37 and 80% equities I would have classified my portfolio as aggressive. This says I'm conservative-moderate.
OK.

Quickfoot
Posts: 1166
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2013 1:03 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by Quickfoot » Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:53 pm

Age 32, 80% equity, closest to conservative. I'm not sure I'd ever call 80% equity conservative :).

IlliniDave
Posts: 2325
Joined: Fri May 17, 2013 7:09 am

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by IlliniDave » Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:57 pm

I am nearest to"moderate", somewhat surprising as Bogle, Ferri, and Bernstein all would consider me right at the aggressive limit (70%) of what's prudent for my age (based on their published works).

And, I did not annuitize any future fixed income in my calculation. If I did that, I'd be roughly ultraconservative. :wink: Time to rebalance into stocks!
Don't do something. Just stand there!

jeff1949
Posts: 794
Joined: Mon Mar 05, 2007 10:43 am
Location: Salem, OR

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by jeff1949 » Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:03 pm

After 58 votes it looks like a pretty decent bell curve.

dmd
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:58 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by dmd » Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:06 pm

39 and I'm currently at about 23% bonds which looks like about C. I am actually not comfortable with my current allocation; it feels too aggressive.

User avatar
zaboomafoozarg
Posts: 2118
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:34 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:13 pm

75/25 at 30 is ultra-conservative? Weird.

User avatar
GTF
Posts: 53
Joined: Thu Jun 20, 2013 8:13 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by GTF » Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:27 pm

We are 60/40. I am 65 and (F) aggressive. DW is 48 and she is (C) conservative-moderate.
Blended we are moderate.

User avatar
cheese_breath
Posts: 9561
Joined: Wed Sep 14, 2011 7:08 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by cheese_breath » Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:31 pm

I chose C, but I'm really about C 1/2, halfway between C & D.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

User avatar
obgyn65
Posts: 770
Joined: Sun May 06, 2012 9:11 am

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by obgyn65 » Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:37 pm

I am 48 and chose A. I am almost exclusively in CDs. I don't like taking risks.
"The two most important days in someone's life are the day that they are born and the day they discover why." -John Maxwell

User avatar
Kalo
Posts: 534
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 1:01 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by Kalo » Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:39 pm

I'm 53 yo and between 70% and 75% equities, the rest Short-term Bond. So that puts me at E, Moderate-Aggressive by this chart. Like many of the other posters, I would have guessed I was more aggressive than this suggests. That's because of the glide paths.

I remain wholeheartedly unconvinced by glide paths. How many people do you recall in 2008 saying "not to worry. I'm on a glide path!"

I tend to lean more toward the idea that one should get their basic needs satisfied via TIPS or SPIA and separate that out from the remaining portfolio. This should be done at some point near retirement or earlier if one is so inclined. Then it won't really matter what is done with the remainder of the portfolio, call it what you will (fun money, luxury living money, etc).

With the remainder of the portfolio, AA won't be so critical as you won't starve if it goes south and therefore one should be more comfortable with downturns and less likely to bail at the bottom.

During the accumulation phase, the most important thing is staying the course. But also there is always the remote possibility of unexpected events (like long stretches of poor stock performance). If I had it to do over again, I would have gone 60/40 from the start of the accumulation phase and stayed with that. Admittedly this is disingenuous given the fact that I'm not even that conservative now. Can I plead "do as I say, not as I do?"

Glide paths could go terribly wrong, putting you into a much more conservative stance just when the markets start back up from a long trough. I just don't get it. I'd much rather keep re-balancing to a static AA for the entire investing lifetime, maybe going a little more conservative near the retirement threshold.

Kalo
"When people say they have a high risk tolerance, what they really mean is that they are willing to make a lot of money." -- Ben Stein/Phil DeMuth - The Little Book of Bullet Proof Investing.

rnitz
Posts: 276
Joined: Thu May 10, 2007 12:47 pm
Location: San Diego

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by rnitz » Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:44 pm

Age 55, and 60% equities (by Nisi's definition) - result: moderate. However, I just retired last month so my "investment age" seems older to me. My wife tells me I make up for this by acting so immaturely... :D

User avatar
mickeyd
Posts: 4784
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 3:19 pm
Location: Deep in the Heart of South Texas

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by mickeyd » Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:47 pm

We have an AA of 60/40 (age 69/65). I consider that moderate. Does that chart say that I'm really ultra aggressive :?:
Part-Owner of Texas | | “The CMH-the Cost Matters Hypothesis -is all that is needed to explain why indexing must and will work… Yes, it is that simple.” John C. Bogle

madbrain
Posts: 5530
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 5:06 pm
Location: San Jose, California

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by madbrain » Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:58 pm

37 years old and 63% in equities, which puts me exactly on the line for "ultra-conservative". I dare say, it's probably the first time in my life I have ever been called ultraconservative by anyone !

If I count my 11% of junk bonds as equities, then I'm a little above the "conservative" line .

letsgobobby
Posts: 12073
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2009 1:10 am

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by letsgobobby » Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:00 pm

Agree with the others, and pardon my french, but the definitions are wack. 78% stocks for a 40 year old is conservative-moderate? Some folks have already forgotten...

Gecko10x
Posts: 147
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2013 8:10 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by Gecko10x » Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:06 pm

I chose the first option, as I'm 50/50 and 33.
However, my risk is far higher than that would imply, since my equities are VERY tilted.

I agree with others that the descriptions are quite odd.

leo383
Posts: 481
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2007 9:36 pm
Location: Durham, NC

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by leo383 » Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:31 pm

I am 45, and at 80/20, that makes me "moderate" according to the chart.

We must be nearing a big correction if 80/20 at the age of 45 (or really any age) is considered moderate.

User avatar
G12
Posts: 1534
Joined: Mon Apr 16, 2007 2:35 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by G12 » Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:34 pm

I am 50 and chose C which includes direct investment in a small business, commercial and residential investment RE, + the public equity in my portfolio. I don't consider it all that conservative, either.

User avatar
Topic Author
nisiprius
Advisory Board
Posts: 41044
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:33 am
Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by nisiprius » Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:37 pm

letsgobobby wrote:Agree with the others, and pardon my french, but the definitions are wack. 78% stocks for a 40 year old is conservative-moderate? Some folks have already forgotten...
Just to be clear: the designations as "conservative," "moderate," and "aggressive" are Morningstar's, not mine.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

jbh42
Posts: 45
Joined: Wed Mar 28, 2012 4:57 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by jbh42 » Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:48 pm

nisiprius , since you started this poll, where do you stand?

jginseattle
Posts: 765
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 7:33 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by jginseattle » Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:49 pm

Moderate.

Cuzz35
Posts: 441
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:14 pm
Location: Marietta, GA

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by Cuzz35 » Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:50 pm

Ultraconservative. Age 27 75/25. I'm planning to stick with this allocation until 45-50.

User avatar
englishgirl
Posts: 2481
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 5:34 pm
Location: FL

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by englishgirl » Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:56 pm

Having kept my AA more or less static for a few years, and yet having been unable to keep my age static, I find I have now moved from ultraconservative to merely conservative. Another 5 years or so and I'll become conservative-moderate. Oh the thrill.
Sarah

User avatar
Riceman
Posts: 213
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:50 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by Riceman » Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:57 pm

Above G, 100/0 at age 30. But from age ~40, my plan is to move onto the E path.

Case59
Posts: 164
Joined: Fri Dec 30, 2011 12:31 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by Case59 » Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:01 pm

61, aggressive.
"Most quotations on the internet are incorrect."-Mark Twain

Amishman
Posts: 310
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2007 8:08 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by Amishman » Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:05 pm

42, Ultra Aggressive, 100% Equities

michaelsieg
Posts: 586
Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2013 11:02 am

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by michaelsieg » Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:09 pm

Ended up being ultraconservative as well...never expected that. I am 48, have about 45% in equities.

Texas hold em71
Posts: 595
Joined: Sat May 18, 2013 11:09 am

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by Texas hold em71 » Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:14 pm

rnitz wrote:Age 55, and 60% equities (by Nisi's definition) - result: moderate. However, I just retired last month so my "investment age" seems older to me.. :D
Good point. We are "conservative" but we intend to retire earlier than 65. I remember before 2008, everything I read was telling me 120- age in equities. I was glad later that I wasn't that high. I guess I will continue to get rich slowly. I need my sleep.

dad2000
Posts: 649
Joined: Fri Feb 03, 2012 7:04 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by dad2000 » Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:19 pm

Late 40s, and apparently moderate conservative, though I don't think there is anything conservative about my AA.

I have 60% equities, 30% fixed income, 5% REIT, 5% CCF. My equities are 65% US, 35% non-US, with a moderate SV tilt.

Bradley
Posts: 486
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 2:41 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by Bradley » Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:29 pm

65 years old and 70% equity in investment portfolios.

Equity in, and Income from commercial real estate and profit sharing from passive ownership in a business makes this an appropriate allocation for me and my family.
You can sum up any active fund manager’s presentation at an investor conference in one sentence: “We’re doing well, all things considered.”

User avatar
Dale_G
Posts: 3372
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 5:43 pm
Location: Central Florida - on the grown up side of 83

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by Dale_G » Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:33 pm

Age 76, 71% equities. 16% above "ultraaggressive" for me, but only moderate for the heirs.

And, I am letting the equity percentage creep up.

Dale
Volatility is my friend

User avatar
joe8d
Posts: 4429
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 8:27 pm
Location: Buffalo,NY

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by joe8d » Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:39 pm

Age 71. 50/50 and intend to continue stay at that ratio.
All the Best, | Joe

ourbrooks
Posts: 1575
Joined: Fri Nov 13, 2009 4:56 pm

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by ourbrooks » Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:43 pm

Here we go with the totally meaningless Morningstar glidepath curves again. I'm now absolutely certain that they were drawn by a staff writer who had a deadline and have no analysis of any kind whatsoever behind them.

As recent results by Wade Pfau, Mike Kitches and others have shown, for the best chance of having enough money, you should be really following a U shaped equity allocation, high starting out, lowest at retirement and increasing throughout retirement. The kinds of curves shown in the Morningstar charts should really be called "risk increasing paths" since they actually increase the risk of running out of money relative to a more optimal strategy.

RNJ
Posts: 828
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2013 9:06 am

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

Post by RNJ » Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:49 pm

I'm 49, spouse is 42. Used the average and, with a 67% allocation to equities, we are conservative - moderate.

Other variables:

1) Planning to semi-retire in 12-13 years. In all likelihood we will continue to work but at 15-20% of what we are currently making; accumulation phase will essentially be over.

2) Portfolio is tilted heavily towards small and value.

Interesting poll!

Post Reply