Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Seems those sitting on the sidelines fearful of whatever missed a 2% plus up day today.
It is not about timing the market, it is about time in the market.
It is not about timing the market, it is about time in the market.
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
Wow - I didn't even realize it was such a good day. There was a small part of me that was fearful for my portfolio, and fantasizing about different "plays"-- I think in part because I live in DC and really hear the noise. Relatively speaking, I think I did well to not get agitated and feel comfortable with my AA. Glad I stayed put.
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
Not if you sold Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (VFINX) on 09/18/2013 at $159.74. My projected NAV is $155.85 today - still 2.44% for compensation for "time out of the market."dickenjb wrote:Seems those sitting on the sidelines fearful of whatever missed a 2% plus up day today.
It is not about timing the market, it is about time in the market.
Seriously, we should hold the Asset Allocation that corresponds to our Ability & Need to take risk - the risk that we are also Willing (psychological) to take.
Landy |
Be yourself, everyone else is already taken -- Oscar Wilde
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
ok you made me look. Not what I would have expected. Across the pond equities are not doing to bad either. Just give it some time and a RBD will show up!
"Out of clutter, find simplicity” Albert Einstein
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
I must say that I get upset if I miss a RGD. It makes me much more annoyed than losing money on a RBD. And since good days often occur temporally near RBDs, I am always adding to equities on RBDs so that I don't miss a RGD.
At all times I am fully invested in my asset allocation plan. But see my footnote, too.
At all times I am fully invested in my asset allocation plan. But see my footnote, too.
-
- Posts: 13356
- Joined: Tue Mar 23, 2010 1:45 pm
- Location: Reading, MA
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
A 2% uptick after recent downticks of about the same is nothing to get excited about.
Just relax, folks...
Just relax, folks...
Attempted new signature...
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
Today was a prime example of just letting things ride. There were posts of "market crashing" and "what to do now", or...etc. Frankly, I was able to do a monthly investment at a low point (based on recency) a few days ago, but it was pure luck. I was planning another investment today if things got worse, but they didn't, so, no investment. Looking at the past, RGDs outnumber RBDs, and missing the RGDs will kill an investment plan.
Greg
Greg
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
Manufactured crises are but manufactured noise. Tune them out, and hope your 401K contributions fund on a particularly bad day for the Market (hint: more shares). Murphy's Law: My wife's contribs always seem to hit on Mr. Market's up days. I went back a year or so, and she is truly snake-bit in that regard.
Last time she made out like a bandit was in March, 2009. Her employer match hit on March 9, 2009. Look it up. It was the market low. Shares bought that day have done quite nicely.
Last time she made out like a bandit was in March, 2009. Her employer match hit on March 9, 2009. Look it up. It was the market low. Shares bought that day have done quite nicely.
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!! Lions and tigers and bears!!
Shutdowns, defaults, and gridlock, oh my!! Shutdowns, defaults and gridlock!!
Pulled up my portfolio on Quicken. The numbers are almost identical to market close on Friday. The end of the world came and went and the markets refused to panic.
Stay the course.
Shutdowns, defaults, and gridlock, oh my!! Shutdowns, defaults and gridlock!!
Pulled up my portfolio on Quicken. The numbers are almost identical to market close on Friday. The end of the world came and went and the markets refused to panic.
Stay the course.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
You _should_ be afraid of missing a really good day.
In fact, you should be terrified of doing so.
It doesn't take missing very many really good days to RUIN EVERYTHING.
In fact, you should be terrified of doing so.
It doesn't take missing very many really good days to RUIN EVERYTHING.
70/30 AA for life, Global market cap equity. Rebalance if fixed income <25% or >35%. Weighted ER< .10%. 5% of annual portfolio balance SWR, Proportional (to AA) withdrawals.
-
- Posts: 3278
- Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 11:13 am
- Location: San Diego
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
remember those charts though, if you miss the 10 best days AND the 10 worst days you end up with similar results than if you just stayed in the market.
But to be honest we hadn't had enough recent bad days for me to need to rebalance to do anything about this RGD, so I just heard it on the radio and said "oh <expletive> i just stayed the course this whole time!"
But to be honest we hadn't had enough recent bad days for me to need to rebalance to do anything about this RGD, so I just heard it on the radio and said "oh <expletive> i just stayed the course this whole time!"
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
It would take some spectacular market timing to miss the good days without missing their nearby bad days. And not surprisingly, those bad days help cancel out the good days.
See also the ol' Bogleheads missing days thread: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 10&t=60207
See also the ol' Bogleheads missing days thread: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 10&t=60207
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
The problem is that many people pull out of the market AFTER a bad day and get back in AFTER a good day.Easy Rhino wrote:remember those charts though, if you miss the 10 best days AND the 10 worst days you end up with similar results than if you just stayed in the market.
But to be honest we hadn't had enough recent bad days for me to need to rebalance to do anything about this RGD, so I just heard it on the radio and said "oh <expletive> i just stayed the course this whole time!"
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
My wife got a big bonus the first week of March 2009, which we invested 100% in stocks (Rebalancing our existing bond money into stocks during that crash was very hard, but investing NEW money 100% into stocks was easy).john94549 wrote:Last time she made out like a bandit was in March, 2009. Her employer match hit on March 9, 2009. Look it up. It was the market low. Shares bought that day have done quite nicely.
That bonus is worth 2.5x today. Pure luck that we invested it all that week.
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (VFINX) on 10/10/2013 at $156.16. I was off 0.2%YDNAL wrote:Not if you sold Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (VFINX) on 09/18/2013 at $159.74. My projected NAV is $155.85 today - still 2.44% for compensation for "time out of the market."dickenjb wrote:Seems those sitting on the sidelines fearful of whatever missed a 2% plus up day today.
It is not about timing the market, it is about time in the market.
Seriously, we should hold the Asset Allocation that corresponds to our Ability & Need to take risk - the risk that we are also Willing (psychological) to take.
See, even guessing NAVs *after* you know what happened can be challenging - I should have at least guessed above $156.
Landy |
Be yourself, everyone else is already taken -- Oscar Wilde
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
But not those people reading this forum.Luke Duke wrote:The problem is that many people pull out of the market AFTER a bad day and get back in AFTER a good day.
Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Yup. It the list of the top 100 investment concerns I have, missing a Really Good Day is probably either #99 or #100dickenjb wrote:Seems those sitting on the sidelines fearful of whatever missed a 2% plus up day today.
It is not about timing the market, it is about time in the market.
Andy
-
- Posts: 5561
- Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 7:21 pm
Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
The meaningful stock market moves are so rapid that the only way to profit is to already be there when the lightning strikes. This recent 2% move was an excellent reminder.
Dave
Dave
Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
.
I think that everyone should stop to think a bit what OP is asking: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Before yesterday, Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (VFINX) was down 4.3% since September 18th.
I think that everyone should stop to think a bit what OP is asking: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Before yesterday, Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (VFINX) was down 4.3% since September 18th.
- There have been 20 days above yesterday so far in 2013 - all really good days using OP's same criteria.
- And, 63 other days above 10/9/2013. Are these *semi-* really good days ?
Code: Select all
Date Price
09/18/2013 $159.74
09/19/2013 $159.47
09/17/2013 $157.82
08/02/2013 $157.79
08/05/2013 $157.57
09/20/2013 $157.57
08/01/2013 $157.53
09/16/2013 $157.15
09/23/2013 $156.83
08/08/2013 $156.77
08/06/2013 $156.68
09/26/2013 $156.59
08/13/2013 $156.53
09/24/2013 $156.44
07/22/2013 $156.43
09/11/2013 $156.33
09/13/2013 $156.27
10/01/2013 $156.27
08/09/2013 $156.24
10/02/2013 $156.19
10/10/2013 $156.16
07/23/2013 $156.14
08/07/2013 $156.13
07/19/2013 $156.12
07/26/2013 $156.08
08/12/2013 $156.06
09/25/2013 $156.01
09/27/2013 $155.96
07/25/2013 $155.95
10/04/2013 $155.89
07/18/2013 $155.86
09/12/2013 $155.84
09/10/2013 $155.83
08/14/2013 $155.75
07/30/2013 $155.57
07/31/2013 $155.57
07/24/2013 $155.55
07/29/2013 $155.50
07/15/2013 $155.20
07/17/2013 $155.06
09/30/2013 $155.02
07/12/2013 $154.98
10/03/2013 $154.79
09/09/2013 $154.69
07/16/2013 $154.62
10/07/2013 $154.56
07/11/2013 $154.51
05/21/2013 $154.26
05/17/2013 $154.10
05/20/2013 $153.99
08/23/2013 $153.80
08/15/2013 $153.55
05/28/2013 $153.46
05/15/2013 $153.29
08/26/2013 $153.18
08/22/2013 $153.17
09/06/2013 $153.16
09/05/2013 $153.13
08/16/2013 $153.05
05/22/2013 $153.01
05/30/2013 $152.99
09/04/2013 $152.94
06/18/2013 $152.89
Landy |
Be yourself, everyone else is already taken -- Oscar Wilde
Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
There is no symmetry between RBD's and RGD's.
How many days in 2013 were below the last RBD? Search the forum to get the date of the previous "official" RBD in 2013.
How many days in 2013 were below the last RBD? Search the forum to get the date of the previous "official" RBD in 2013.
Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
I don't keep track of this nonsense, but w.r.t. Vanguard VFINX, and since I ran some quick numbers:livesoft wrote:There is no symmetry between RBD's and RGD's.
How many days in 2013 were below the last RBD? Search the forum to get the date of the previous "official" RBD in 2013.
1. There have been 4 days over 1.5% negative change in 2013.
Code: Select all
Date Price Change
06/20/2013 $147.03 -2.49%
04/15/2013 $143.17 -2.29%
02/25/2013 $137.49 -1.83%
08/27/2013 $150.75 -1.59%
Code: Select all
04/17/2013 $143.13 -1.43%
05/31/2013 $150.80 -1.43%
08/15/2013 $153.55 -1.41%
06/19/2013 $150.78 -1.38%
06/05/2013 $148.84 -1.35%
03/21/2013 $142.40 -1.27%
02/20/2013 $139.66 -1.24%
06/24/2013 $144.94 -1.21%
10/08/2013 $152.70 -1.20%
09/20/2013 $157.57 -1.19%
02/04/2013 $137.95 -1.15%
04/03/2013 $143.21 -1.04%
06/11/2013 $150.46 -1.01%
Landy |
Be yourself, everyone else is already taken -- Oscar Wilde
Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Good times, bad times,
You know I've had my share,
My balance always fluctuates
But now I don't seem to care.
My apologies to the band named Led Zeppelin.
You know I've had my share,
My balance always fluctuates
But now I don't seem to care.
My apologies to the band named Led Zeppelin.
- TheTimeLord
- Posts: 12092
- Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
+1YDNAL wrote:Not if you sold Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (VFINX) on 09/18/2013 at $159.74. My projected NAV is $155.85 today - still 2.44% for compensation for "time out of the market."dickenjb wrote:Seems those sitting on the sidelines fearful of whatever missed a 2% plus up day today.
It is not about timing the market, it is about time in the market.
Seriously, we should hold the Asset Allocation that corresponds to our Ability & Need to take risk - the risk that we are also Willing (psychological) to take.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
Is this a RGD to sell bonds since the Intermediate bonds ETF is up about .60% as of 2pm?livesoft wrote: ↑Thu Oct 10, 2013 3:36 pm I must say that I get upset if I miss a RGD. It makes me much more annoyed than losing money on a RBD. And since good days often occur temporally near RBDs, I am always adding to equities on RBDs so that I don't miss a RGD.
At all times I am fully invested in my asset allocation plan. But see my footnote, too.
-
- Posts: 4801
- Joined: Sun Oct 22, 2017 2:06 pm
Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
EDV up 2% today.
In case anyone needed even more reason to go long in bonds.
In case anyone needed even more reason to go long in bonds.
-
- Posts: 237
- Joined: Sun Jun 07, 2015 12:50 pm
Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Looks like a RGD and a RBD rolled into one.
Time in market, thanks for reiterating this today.
Time in market, thanks for reiterating this today.
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
I definitely think so and will sell some of the intermediate bonds that I bought a couple weeks ago in a rebalancing move.
Added after market close: VBTLX (Vanguard Total US Bond Index) was reportedly up 0.73% today. That kind of single day gain is extremely rare I think.
Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Thank you all for refreshing this post. I took the opportunity to rebalance from Vanguard Total Bond (VBTLX) into Vanguard Total Stock (VTSAX) and Total International Stock (VTIAX) today. It wasn't a large percentage of my portfolio (~1.5%) but it's nice when I can 'sell high' and 'buy low' all at once.
Dwayne
Dwayne
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
I did sell VBTLX and will do rebalancing to my AA plan soon, most probably tomorrow.livesoft wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:39 pmI definitely think so and will sell some of the intermediate bonds that I bought a couple weeks ago in a rebalancing move.
Added after market close: VBTLX (Vanguard Total US Bond Index) was reportedly up 0.73% today. That kind of single day gain is extremely rare I think.
Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Yup.Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
My fear of the ship sinking is less than my fear of the ship leaving without me.. so I always stay invested
- AnalogKid22
- Posts: 474
- Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 8:26 pm
- Location: Babylon, but I'd love to spend a night in Zion
Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?
Exactly. Anyone getting excited about a 1-2% increase in one day should be prepared to be extremely upset about a 20%+ decrease. Corrections are part of investing and any RGD can be completely wiped out by a RBD the day after.The Wizard wrote: ↑Thu Oct 10, 2013 5:17 pm A 2% uptick after recent downticks of about the same is nothing to get excited about.
Just relax, folks...