Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?

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dickenjb
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Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?

Post by dickenjb »

Seems those sitting on the sidelines fearful of whatever missed a 2% plus up day today.

It is not about timing the market, it is about time in the market.
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Kevin21
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by Kevin21 »

Wow - I didn't even realize it was such a good day. There was a small part of me that was fearful for my portfolio, and fantasizing about different "plays"-- I think in part because I live in DC and really hear the noise. Relatively speaking, I think I did well to not get agitated and feel comfortable with my AA. Glad I stayed put.
YDNAL
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by YDNAL »

dickenjb wrote:Seems those sitting on the sidelines fearful of whatever missed a 2% plus up day today.

It is not about timing the market, it is about time in the market.
Not if you sold Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (VFINX) on 09/18/2013 at $159.74. My projected NAV is $155.85 today - still 2.44% for compensation for "time out of the market." :)

Seriously, we should hold the Asset Allocation that corresponds to our Ability & Need to take risk - the risk that we are also Willing (psychological) to take.
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Jay69
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by Jay69 »

ok you made me look. Not what I would have expected. Across the pond equities are not doing to bad either. Just give it some time and a RBD will show up!
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livesoft
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by livesoft »

I must say that I get upset if I miss a RGD. It makes me much more annoyed than losing money on a RBD. And since good days often occur temporally near RBDs, I am always adding to equities on RBDs so that I don't miss a RGD.

At all times I am fully invested in my asset allocation plan. But see my footnote, too.
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The Wizard
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by The Wizard »

A 2% uptick after recent downticks of about the same is nothing to get excited about.
Just relax, folks...
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gks
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by gks »

Today was a prime example of just letting things ride. There were posts of "market crashing" and "what to do now", or...etc. Frankly, I was able to do a monthly investment at a low point (based on recency) a few days ago, but it was pure luck. I was planning another investment today if things got worse, but they didn't, so, no investment. Looking at the past, RGDs outnumber RBDs, and missing the RGDs will kill an investment plan.

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john94549
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by john94549 »

Manufactured crises are but manufactured noise. Tune them out, and hope your 401K contributions fund on a particularly bad day for the Market (hint: more shares). Murphy's Law: My wife's contribs always seem to hit on Mr. Market's up days. I went back a year or so, and she is truly snake-bit in that regard.

Last time she made out like a bandit was in March, 2009. Her employer match hit on March 9, 2009. Look it up. It was the market low. Shares bought that day have done quite nicely.
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nedsaid
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by nedsaid »

Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!! Lions and tigers and bears!!

Shutdowns, defaults, and gridlock, oh my!! Shutdowns, defaults and gridlock!!

Pulled up my portfolio on Quicken. The numbers are almost identical to market close on Friday. The end of the world came and went and the markets refused to panic.

Stay the course.
A fool and his money are good for business.
MnD
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by MnD »

You _should_ be afraid of missing a really good day.
In fact, you should be terrified of doing so.
It doesn't take missing very many really good days to RUIN EVERYTHING. 8-)

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Easy Rhino
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by Easy Rhino »

remember those charts though, if you miss the 10 best days AND the 10 worst days you end up with similar results than if you just stayed in the market.

But to be honest we hadn't had enough recent bad days for me to need to rebalance to do anything about this RGD, so I just heard it on the radio and said "oh <expletive> i just stayed the course this whole time!"
livesoft
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by livesoft »

It would take some spectacular market timing to miss the good days without missing their nearby bad days. And not surprisingly, those bad days help cancel out the good days.

See also the ol' Bogleheads missing days thread: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 10&t=60207
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Luke Duke
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by Luke Duke »

Easy Rhino wrote:remember those charts though, if you miss the 10 best days AND the 10 worst days you end up with similar results than if you just stayed in the market.

But to be honest we hadn't had enough recent bad days for me to need to rebalance to do anything about this RGD, so I just heard it on the radio and said "oh <expletive> i just stayed the course this whole time!"
The problem is that many people pull out of the market AFTER a bad day and get back in AFTER a good day.
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HomerJ
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by HomerJ »

john94549 wrote:Last time she made out like a bandit was in March, 2009. Her employer match hit on March 9, 2009. Look it up. It was the market low. Shares bought that day have done quite nicely.
My wife got a big bonus the first week of March 2009, which we invested 100% in stocks (Rebalancing our existing bond money into stocks during that crash was very hard, but investing NEW money 100% into stocks was easy).

That bonus is worth 2.5x today. Pure luck that we invested it all that week.
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by YDNAL »

YDNAL wrote:
dickenjb wrote:Seems those sitting on the sidelines fearful of whatever missed a 2% plus up day today.

It is not about timing the market, it is about time in the market.
Not if you sold Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (VFINX) on 09/18/2013 at $159.74. My projected NAV is $155.85 today - still 2.44% for compensation for "time out of the market." :)

Seriously, we should hold the Asset Allocation that corresponds to our Ability & Need to take risk - the risk that we are also Willing (psychological) to take.
Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (VFINX) on 10/10/2013 at $156.16. I was off 0.2% :D

See, even guessing NAVs *after* you know what happened can be challenging - I should have at least guessed above $156.
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livesoft
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by livesoft »

Luke Duke wrote:The problem is that many people pull out of the market AFTER a bad day and get back in AFTER a good day.
But not those people reading this forum.
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Wagnerjb
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?

Post by Wagnerjb »

dickenjb wrote:Seems those sitting on the sidelines fearful of whatever missed a 2% plus up day today.

It is not about timing the market, it is about time in the market.
Yup. It the list of the top 100 investment concerns I have, missing a Really Good Day is probably either #99 or #100 :D
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?

Post by Random Walker »

The meaningful stock market moves are so rapid that the only way to profit is to already be there when the lightning strikes. This recent 2% move was an excellent reminder.

Dave
YDNAL
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?

Post by YDNAL »

.

I think that everyone should stop to think a bit what OP is asking: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?

Before yesterday, Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (VFINX) was down 4.3% since September 18th.
  1. There have been 20 days above yesterday so far in 2013 - all really good days using OP's same criteria.
  2. And, 63 other days above 10/9/2013. Are these *semi-* really good days ?
Sorted by Price:

Code: Select all

Date	      Price
09/18/2013	$159.74 
09/19/2013	$159.47 
09/17/2013	$157.82 
08/02/2013	$157.79 
08/05/2013	$157.57 
09/20/2013	$157.57 
08/01/2013	$157.53 
09/16/2013	$157.15 
09/23/2013	$156.83 
08/08/2013	$156.77 
08/06/2013	$156.68 
09/26/2013	$156.59 
08/13/2013	$156.53 
09/24/2013	$156.44 
07/22/2013	$156.43 
09/11/2013	$156.33 
09/13/2013	$156.27 
10/01/2013	$156.27 
08/09/2013	$156.24 
10/02/2013	$156.19 
10/10/2013	$156.16 
07/23/2013	$156.14 
08/07/2013	$156.13 
07/19/2013	$156.12 
07/26/2013	$156.08 
08/12/2013	$156.06 
09/25/2013	$156.01 
09/27/2013	$155.96 
07/25/2013	$155.95 
10/04/2013	$155.89 
07/18/2013	$155.86 
09/12/2013	$155.84 
09/10/2013	$155.83 
08/14/2013	$155.75 
07/30/2013	$155.57 
07/31/2013	$155.57 
07/24/2013	$155.55 
07/29/2013	$155.50 
07/15/2013	$155.20 
07/17/2013	$155.06 
09/30/2013	$155.02 
07/12/2013	$154.98 
10/03/2013	$154.79 
09/09/2013	$154.69 
07/16/2013	$154.62 
10/07/2013	$154.56 
07/11/2013	$154.51 
05/21/2013	$154.26 
05/17/2013	$154.10 
05/20/2013	$153.99 
08/23/2013	$153.80 
08/15/2013	$153.55 
05/28/2013	$153.46 
05/15/2013	$153.29 
08/26/2013	$153.18 
08/22/2013	$153.17 
09/06/2013	$153.16 
09/05/2013	$153.13 
08/16/2013	$153.05 
05/22/2013	$153.01 
05/30/2013	$152.99 
09/04/2013	$152.94 
06/18/2013	$152.89
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livesoft
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?

Post by livesoft »

There is no symmetry between RBD's and RGD's.

How many days in 2013 were below the last RBD? Search the forum to get the date of the previous "official" RBD in 2013.
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YDNAL
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?

Post by YDNAL »

livesoft wrote:There is no symmetry between RBD's and RGD's.

How many days in 2013 were below the last RBD? Search the forum to get the date of the previous "official" RBD in 2013.
I don't keep track of this nonsense, but w.r.t. Vanguard VFINX, and since I ran some quick numbers:

1. There have been 4 days over 1.5% negative change in 2013.

Code: Select all

Date	      Price	   Change
06/20/2013	$147.03 	-2.49%
04/15/2013	$143.17 	-2.29%
02/25/2013	$137.49 	-1.83%
08/27/2013	$150.75 	-1.59%
2. And 13 others above 1%.

Code: Select all

04/17/2013	$143.13 	-1.43%
05/31/2013	$150.80 	-1.43%
08/15/2013	$153.55 	-1.41%
06/19/2013	$150.78 	-1.38%
06/05/2013	$148.84 	-1.35%
03/21/2013	$142.40 	-1.27%
02/20/2013	$139.66 	-1.24%
06/24/2013	$144.94 	-1.21%
10/08/2013	$152.70 	-1.20%
09/20/2013	$157.57 	-1.19%
02/04/2013	$137.95 	-1.15%
04/03/2013	$143.21 	-1.04%
06/11/2013	$150.46 	-1.01%
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heyyou
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?

Post by heyyou »

Good times, bad times,
You know I've had my share,
My balance always fluctuates
But now I don't seem to care.

My apologies to the band named Led Zeppelin.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by TheTimeLord »

YDNAL wrote:
dickenjb wrote:Seems those sitting on the sidelines fearful of whatever missed a 2% plus up day today.

It is not about timing the market, it is about time in the market.
Not if you sold Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (VFINX) on 09/18/2013 at $159.74. My projected NAV is $155.85 today - still 2.44% for compensation for "time out of the market." :)

Seriously, we should hold the Asset Allocation that corresponds to our Ability & Need to take risk - the risk that we are also Willing (psychological) to take.
+1
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Namashkar
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by Namashkar »

livesoft wrote: Thu Oct 10, 2013 3:36 pm I must say that I get upset if I miss a RGD. It makes me much more annoyed than losing money on a RBD. And since good days often occur temporally near RBDs, I am always adding to equities on RBDs so that I don't miss a RGD.

At all times I am fully invested in my asset allocation plan. But see my footnote, too.
Is this a RGD to sell bonds since the Intermediate bonds ETF is up about .60% as of 2pm?
HEDGEFUNDIE
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE »

EDV up 2% today.

In case anyone needed even more reason to go long in bonds.
DoctorPhysics
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?

Post by DoctorPhysics »

Looks like a RGD and a RBD rolled into one.

Time in market, thanks for reiterating this today.
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by livesoft »

Namashkar wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:29 pmIs this a RGD to sell bonds since the Intermediate bonds ETF is up about .60% as of 2pm?
I definitely think so and will sell some of the intermediate bonds that I bought a couple weeks ago in a rebalancing move.

Added after market close: VBTLX (Vanguard Total US Bond Index) was reportedly up 0.73% today. That kind of single day gain is extremely rare I think.
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Dwayne
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?

Post by Dwayne »

Thank you all for refreshing this post. I took the opportunity to rebalance from Vanguard Total Bond (VBTLX) into Vanguard Total Stock (VTSAX) and Total International Stock (VTIAX) today. It wasn't a large percentage of my portfolio (~1.5%) but it's nice when I can 'sell high' and 'buy low' all at once.

Dwayne
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by Namashkar »

livesoft wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:39 pm
Namashkar wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:29 pmIs this a RGD to sell bonds since the Intermediate bonds ETF is up about .60% as of 2pm?
I definitely think so and will sell some of the intermediate bonds that I bought a couple weeks ago in a rebalancing move.

Added after market close: VBTLX (Vanguard Total US Bond Index) was reportedly up 0.73% today. That kind of single day gain is extremely rare I think.
I did sell VBTLX and will do rebalancing to my AA plan soon, most probably tomorrow.
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?

Post by Tamalak »

Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Yup.

My fear of the ship sinking is less than my fear of the ship leaving without me.. so I always stay invested :sharebeer
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Re: Anyone afraid of missing an RGD?

Post by AnalogKid22 »

The Wizard wrote: Thu Oct 10, 2013 5:17 pm A 2% uptick after recent downticks of about the same is nothing to get excited about.
Just relax, folks...
Exactly. Anyone getting excited about a 1-2% increase in one day should be prepared to be extremely upset about a 20%+ decrease. Corrections are part of investing and any RGD can be completely wiped out by a RBD the day after.
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