AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

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mortfree
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Re: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

Post by mortfree » Tue May 08, 2018 7:16 pm

The 75 million Shares were bought during the first quarter of 2018.

Purchases are done quietly so as not to influence the share price higher.

I could be wrong about the above but that is my take on how these things occur with BRK

Riley15
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Re: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

Post by Riley15 » Wed May 09, 2018 8:32 am

roymeo wrote:
Tue May 08, 2018 6:32 pm
Wouldn't paying less than the current market-price for a lot of shares...change the market-price?
Not true! Market prices are only set for shares traded on the open exchanges. Non-open market transactions or transactions between private parties are non directly setting market prices.

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roymeo
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Re: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

Post by roymeo » Wed May 09, 2018 6:29 pm

Riley15 wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 8:32 am
roymeo wrote:
Tue May 08, 2018 6:32 pm
Wouldn't paying less than the current market-price for a lot of shares...change the market-price?
Not true! Market prices are only set for shares traded on the open exchanges. Non-open market transactions or transactions between private parties are non directly setting market prices.
Touche!
The sewer system is a form of welfare state. | -- "Libra", Don DeLillo

Valuethinker
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Re: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

Post by Valuethinker » Thu May 10, 2018 12:13 am

Riley15 wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 8:32 am
roymeo wrote:
Tue May 08, 2018 6:32 pm
Wouldn't paying less than the current market-price for a lot of shares...change the market-price?
Not true! Market prices are only set for shares traded on the open exchanges. Non-open market transactions or transactions between private parties are non directly setting market prices.
Even using a Dark Pool, why would a fund manager accept a meaningful discount to market price for a holding of that size in a highly liquid stock?

You can sometimes see big discounts when someone is selling a large percentage of an illiquid stock. Apple is not that.

Valuethinker
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Re: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

Post by Valuethinker » Thu May 10, 2018 12:14 am

mortfree wrote:
Tue May 08, 2018 7:16 pm
The 75 million Shares were bought during the first quarter of 2018.

Purchases are done quietly so as not to influence the share price higher.

I could be wrong about the above but that is my take on how these things occur with BRK
Sec filings will tell you average price paid for a disclosable stake.

Riley15
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Re: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

Post by Riley15 » Thu May 10, 2018 8:56 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 12:13 am
Riley15 wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 8:32 am
roymeo wrote:
Tue May 08, 2018 6:32 pm
Wouldn't paying less than the current market-price for a lot of shares...change the market-price?
Not true! Market prices are only set for shares traded on the open exchanges. Non-open market transactions or transactions between private parties are non directly setting market prices.
Even using a Dark Pool, why would a fund manager accept a meaningful discount to market price for a holding of that size in a highly liquid stock?

You can sometimes see big discounts when someone is selling a large percentage of an illiquid stock. Apple is not that.
Apple is definitely highly liquid stock but I would imagine putting that many shares up for sale at one time would negatively affect the price without a direct buyer, of course it could be done over several weeks/months.

Isn't it also possible that Berkshire bought the shares directly from Apple at a discounted price from their share inventory? The ones also used for employee stock options.

Broken Man 1999
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Re: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Thu May 10, 2018 8:57 am

Heads up! Apple is going to decline today, as I have an open order to sell half my Apple stock IF it reaches $190/share. :D

If it hits $190, that is about a doubling of my purchase price of $93.55 in 2016. Might continue up even more, might go down. Unlike Mr Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway, my holding time isn't "forever".

I always remember the saying, "bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered."

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven than I shall not go. " -Mark Twain

mortfree
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Re: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

Post by mortfree » Thu May 10, 2018 11:15 am

Broken Man 1999 wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 8:57 am
Heads up! Apple is going to decline today, as I have an open order to sell half my Apple stock IF it reaches $190/share. :D

If it hits $190, that is about a doubling of my purchase price of $93.55 in 2016. Might continue up even more, might go down. Unlike Mr Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway, my holding time isn't "forever".

I always remember the saying, "bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered."

Broken Man 1999
good call!

I'm sitting over here saying oink, oink! holding since 2007 or so.

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Nicolas
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Re: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

Post by Nicolas » Thu May 10, 2018 6:02 pm

Broken Man 1999 wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 8:57 am
Heads up! Apple is going to decline today, as I have an open order to sell half my Apple stock IF it reaches $190/share. :D

If it hits $190, that is about a doubling of my purchase price of $93.55 in 2016. Might continue up even more, might go down. Unlike Mr Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway, my holding time isn't "forever".

I always remember the saying, "bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered."

Broken Man 1999
It hit $190 — did your order execute?
De gustibus non est disputandum.

Freefun
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Re: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

Post by Freefun » Thu May 10, 2018 6:12 pm

Bought some in 2008 around $12. Not sure why I didn't buy more. Oh yeah- I'm not that smart.
Remember when you wanted what you currently have?

Valuethinker
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Re: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

Post by Valuethinker » Thu May 10, 2018 10:07 pm

Riley15 wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 8:56 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 12:13 am
Riley15 wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 8:32 am
roymeo wrote:
Tue May 08, 2018 6:32 pm
Wouldn't paying less than the current market-price for a lot of shares...change the market-price?
Not true! Market prices are only set for shares traded on the open exchanges. Non-open market transactions or transactions between private parties are non directly setting market prices.
Even using a Dark Pool, why would a fund manager accept a meaningful discount to market price for a holding of that size in a highly liquid stock?

You can sometimes see big discounts when someone is selling a large percentage of an illiquid stock. Apple is not that.
Apple is definitely highly liquid stock but I would imagine putting that many shares up for sale at one time would negatively affect the price without a direct buyer, of course it could be done over several weeks/months.

Isn't it also possible that Berkshire bought the shares directly from Apple at a discounted price from their share inventory? The ones also used for employee stock options.
If Apple sold Buffet treasury stock they would have to disclose it because it would dilute existing shareholders (Sec rules might allow a de minimus issue without immediate disclosure).

If Buffet waited around until a big line on offer then its overhang might depress the share price until the market saw that a trade had gone through. Stock would likely then bounce back up as overhang had cleared. But on a liquid stock Buffet would not get a huge discount bearing in mind the size he is buying.

jminv
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Re: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

Post by jminv » Fri May 11, 2018 1:04 am

I sold my AAPL off last year. I was getting a bit put off on their new growth engine primarily being price rises on an already expensive product rather than growth from selling to new customers and that they hadn’t done much interesting recently (future growth). I share the last concern with GOOGL as well. I like how AAPL is able to price discriminate to the extent they do so and I do think the iwatch has potential as a mass market medical device. Company throws off a ton of cash which I’m sure is major reason buffet and co got interested. It is a moaty business but one that needs continual reinvestment and acquisitions to stay ahead of the pack and buy out emerging competition in order to not end up like RIM or Nokia. There are attractive elements to the business.

Broken Man 1999
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Re: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Fri May 11, 2018 9:45 am

Nicolas wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 6:02 pm
Broken Man 1999 wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 8:57 am
Heads up! Apple is going to decline today, as I have an open order to sell half my Apple stock IF it reaches $190/share. :D

If it hits $190, that is about a doubling of my purchase price of $93.55 in 2016. Might continue up even more, might go down. Unlike Mr Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway, my holding time isn't "forever".

I always remember the saying, "bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered."

Broken Man 1999
It hit $190 — did your order execute?
Yep, at 1:21PM I received a text message that my order was executed.

Some of my Microsoft shares are next up to sell. Not where I want to be, yet.

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven than I shall not go. " -Mark Twain

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