Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

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Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by AnimalCrackers » Fri Feb 15, 2013 5:41 pm

"Rachel Fox isn’t an ordinary 16-year-old. She's already graduated from high school and has been a working Hollywood actress for years, appearing in shows like Desperate Housewives as evil Kayla Scavo and in the film Dream House with Daniel Craig and Naomi Watts. When she’s not on set she can often be found on stage, singing and playing guitar in an indie rock band.

That would be a packed schedule for most of us, but Rachel has another activity that’s a real passion. For the last year-and-a-half she’s been actively day-trading stocks with her own money. She says she's been racking up stellar returns, claiming a 30.4% gain in 2012, versus the benchmark S&P 500 which gained 13% for last year."

Full story: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout ... 23005.html

Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by FillorKill » Fri Feb 15, 2013 5:56 pm

From the article:

"Her methodology for stock picking isn’t going to be in one of her mom’s textbooks anytime soon. For the vast majority of her trades she’s going strictly by her gut instinct and technicals, or stock charts".

^^^ How could that possibly go awry?

Beardstown lady is my guess. But anytime I get a chance to pick 'Beardstown lady' for any reason I do. :happy
Last edited by FillorKill on Fri Feb 15, 2013 6:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by nisiprius » Fri Feb 15, 2013 5:56 pm

AnimalCrackers wrote:Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?
You left out a possibility. As Tom Paine put it: "is it more probable that nature should go out of her course, or that a man should tell a lie?"
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by nisiprius » Fri Feb 15, 2013 6:04 pm

Dogs of the Dow: Long Term Investing Strategies for 2013

The whole idea of "long term strategies for 2013" is... interesting. I take it that "long-term investors" are supposed to adopt a new strategy every year. Or does she mean one or more new strategies? She says:
I just came across a very cool investing strategy that seems like an excellent option for investors who want steady income from their long-term investments via a combination of steady stock price increases and dividend payments.

The strategy is called Dogs of the Dow. It’s easy to comprehend and even simpler to execute...
Dogs of the Dow! What a clever idea. I hope not too many people know about it or it might stop working...
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by AnimalCrackers » Fri Feb 15, 2013 6:04 pm

nisiprius wrote:
AnimalCrackers wrote:Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?
You left out a possibility. As Tom Paine put it: "is it more probable that nature should go out of her course, or that a man should tell a lie?"
What possible motivation would a teen celebrity blogger have to lie? :)

(I did inadvertently overlook that possibility. I assume I was distracted by her mad stock-picking skilz, yo.)
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by ruralavalon » Fri Feb 15, 2013 6:12 pm

"Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?"

I don't know.

But I think we should celebrate that at 16 she is paying attention to her money, and not just blowing her money and wasting her life. "Rachel Fox isn’t an ordinary 16-year-old."
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by Alex Frakt » Fri Feb 15, 2013 6:22 pm

BBL wrote:From the article:

"Her methodology for stock picking isn’t going to be in one of her mom’s textbooks anytime soon. For the vast majority of her trades she’s going strictly by her gut instinct and technicals, or stock charts".

^^^ How could that possibly go awry?
I found the next line more interesting for what it tells us about the financial media.
She tries to ignore the news flow that fundamental players live off
I'm picturing Benjamin Graham barking out trades as he watches the CNBC news scroll.

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by pkcrafter » Fri Feb 15, 2013 6:22 pm

And as they say, But wait, there's more! Ms. Fox has her own financial website complete with market information, and in fact she is so good that she is providing investing advice. See Information Basics on her website. Beardstown lady? No, no, much more credible, she's a Tinseltown lady. Do not confuse Ms. Fox with Fox Business News. :oops:


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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by chaz » Fri Feb 15, 2013 6:33 pm

http://foxonstocks.com/

She has a crystal ball.
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by Rick Ferri » Fri Feb 15, 2013 6:36 pm

I knew a barber who had a better track record in the late 1990s. He lost it all in the tech wreck.

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by cjackson0 » Fri Feb 15, 2013 6:53 pm

Luck.

Next question, please. :D
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by minesweep » Fri Feb 15, 2013 7:01 pm

The article is 9 hours old and it already has 950 comments posted.

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by MoonOrb » Fri Feb 15, 2013 7:03 pm

Sheesh, she's sixteen. Cut her some slack. I think it's super cool that a sixteen year old is interested in investing. I didn't let go of the idea of buying individual stocks until I was thirty (although not that i was day trading, yikes :| )

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by larryswedroe » Fri Feb 15, 2013 7:28 pm

I just met with a hedge fund manager who recently shut his fund down--took his chips off the table and went home. He recognized that his great run was likely luck and he knew it would run out some day.
Now his son, with a large trust now, first tried his hand at Las Vegas as poker player. That did not work (and there is real skill in long term there, though short term can be luck). Then his next try was day trading. And that failed. Best thing that ever happened to him as he is now thinking about getting real job. If he would have been successful he would have thought it was skill went it almost certainly would have been luck. The lessons were cheap because they happened early. There is virtually zero chance this girl has skill. With the large numbers of people trying some will randomly succeed. Those that do are sure it's skill. Those that fail often attribute it to bad luck. That's just human nature.

Best wishes
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by pennstater2005 » Fri Feb 15, 2013 7:32 pm

Oh lord I actually watched most of that interview online today. I couldn't look away :oops:
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by chaz » Fri Feb 15, 2013 9:33 pm

minesweep wrote:The article is 9 hours old and it already has 950 comments posted.

Mike
I posted a comment.
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by Fallible » Fri Feb 15, 2013 10:14 pm

larryswedroe wrote:...There is virtually zero chance this girl has skill. With the large numbers of people trying some will randomly succeed. Those that do are sure it's skill. Those that fail often attribute it to bad luck. That's just human nature. ...
Re skill vs. luck, I wish the interviewer had asked her (or maybe I just missed it) what role she thinks luck is playing in her success. My guess is she knows it plays some role, but doesn't yet appreciate how much.
Last edited by Fallible on Fri Feb 15, 2013 10:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by beammeupscotty » Fri Feb 15, 2013 10:18 pm

This reminds me of a Shia Labeouf day-trading story from a few years back. Gee, I wonder what happened to his ostensibly hot hand since then? Good thing he didn't quit his day job.

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by bottlecap » Sat Feb 16, 2013 8:40 am

nisiprius wrote:Dogs of the Dow: Long Term Investing Strategies for 2013

The whole idea of "long term strategies for 2013" is... interesting. I take it that "long-term investors" are supposed to adopt a new strategy every year. Or does she mean one or more new strategies? She says:
I just came across a very cool investing strategy that seems like an excellent option for investors who want steady income from their long-term investments via a combination of steady stock price increases and dividend payments.

The strategy is called Dogs of the Dow. It’s easy to comprehend and even simpler to execute...
Dogs of the Dow! What a clever idea. I hope not too many people know about it or it might stop working...
Lol. Her trading results, even if correct, begin November 30, 2011. Big deal!

It's great that she's interested, but unfortunately she's got it all wrong, as does her Mom. The good news is that she'll have plenty of time to recover once she's lost a bundle by the time she's 20.

JT

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by tim1999 » Sat Feb 16, 2013 9:17 am

Sorry to get all market-timey, but isn't this one of the historical signs of a market top? When kids are successful traders?

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by William4u » Sat Feb 16, 2013 1:05 pm

This is just a gambler who has gambling habits. I've met gamblers who think they are overall up in winnings, but in reality they are down. Such gamblers have selective memories: they remember the wins but no so much the losses, and so they think that gambling makes them income (when it is just an expensive habit).

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by tfb » Sat Feb 16, 2013 1:13 pm

Cherokee8215 wrote:Sorry to get all market-timey, but isn't this one of the historical signs of a market top? When kids are successful traders?
IIRC day trading stories ran for a while before the market top. So maybe there are still quite a few puffs left.
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by gvsucavie03 » Sat Feb 16, 2013 2:31 pm

Cherokee8215 wrote:Sorry to get all market-timey, but isn't this one of the historical signs of a market top? When kids are successful traders?
Exactly.... folks coming in chasing the rainbow are going to get their heads taken off. No principle... just dumb luck.

This has so many long-term negative consequences it just makes me cringe.

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by hoppy08520 » Sat Feb 16, 2013 3:16 pm

Cherokee8215 wrote:Sorry to get all market-timey, but isn't this one of the historical signs of a market top? When kids are successful traders?
That, and the fact that there seem to be quite a few posts from new users asking for advice about "getting my cash back into the market" after sitting on the sidelines since the sold out at the bottom in 2009. Sell low, buy high. Time for another correction.

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by nisiprius » Sat Feb 16, 2013 8:50 pm

William4u wrote:This is just a gambler who has gambling habits. I've met gamblers who think they are overall up in winnings, but in reality they are down. Such gamblers have selective memories: they remember the wins but no so much the losses, and so they think that gambling makes them income (when it is just an expensive habit).
Some friends of mine came back from a weekend at Atlantic City, saying that they'd won.

I didn't cross-examine them, but it gradually transpired that they'd won--on Saturday. And they'd lost--on Sunday. And their Sunday losses exceeded their Saturday gains. However, on Saturday they'd been following their system. On Sunday they "outsmarted themselves" and departed from the system. Now that they understand the mistake they made on Sunday, they will be able to avoid it in future, so, in their minds, it shouldn't really count.
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by nedsaid » Sat Feb 16, 2013 9:47 pm

I wouldn't use this as a market indicator. I don't hear co-workers talking about day trading or even talking much about the stock market. I think this is an isolated story. Many people are still pretty scared from 2008-2009 and 2000-2002 before that.

I find that people crow about their successes but don't talk about their failures. I am dubious about her claim of a 30 percent return. I want to see her tax return and her brokerage statement before believing that claim.

So stay the course. Now that the market has been flat for 13 years now, the talk of an overheated market seems ridiculous to me.
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by nisiprius » Sat Feb 16, 2013 9:59 pm

nedsaid wrote:I am dubious about her claim of a 30 percent return.
Yes and no. I'm dubious, too, but it's perfectly plausible as a short-term rate of return by someone pursuing aggressive investing in individual risky issues.

Now, take me, for example. I proved my manhood on January 25th by bellying up to the post office counter and demanding "Forever" stamps. "A booklet?" says the clerk. I gave him a look of withering contempt. Not a booklet, I sneered, not a sheet, no sir, what sort of piker do you take me for? I'm grabbing for the brass ring, going all in. I, sir, demand a full roll. After nervously consulting his superior, he reluctantly complied. It cost me $45, almost everything I had in my wallet. But I was acting on secret information I get from a source known to a few insiders as the Wall Street Journal, which said they were about to raise the price.

Just one week later, that roll was worth $46.

That's a gain of 2.22% in seven days, or 213.6% annualized.

I have another move planned, but I won't reveal the details ahead of time because it might move the market. I'll tell you only thing: it involves CVS Extra Bucks.
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by magician » Sat Feb 16, 2013 10:14 pm

nisiprius wrote:Yes and no. I'm dubious, too, but it's perfectly plausible as a short-term rate of return by someone pursuing aggressive investing in individual risky issues.

Now, take me, for example. I proved my manhood on January 25th by bellying up to the post office counter and demanding "Forever" stamps. "A booklet?" says the clerk. I gave him a look of withering contempt. Not a booklet, I sneered, not a sheet, no sir, what sort of piker do you take me for? I'm grabbing for the brass ring, going all in. I, sir, demand a full roll. After nervously consulting his superior, he reluctantly complied. It cost me $45, almost everything I had in my wallet. But I was acting on secret information I get from a source known to a few insiders as the Wall Street Journal, which said they were about to raise the price.

Just one week later, that roll was worth $46.

That's a gain of 2.22% in seven days, or 213.6% annualized.
CFA Institute's Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS) prohibit annualizing returns for holding periods of less than one year.

;)
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by LazyNihilist » Sun Feb 17, 2013 12:35 pm

magician wrote: CFA Institute's Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS) prohibit annualizing returns for holding periods of less than one year.

;)

Interesting, it makes sense. But on the same note, I would prefer the PayDay loans advertise their APR, despite them being short term. That would show how much they actually profit from the really desperate and needy people.
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by momar » Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:14 pm

Cherokee8215 wrote:Sorry to get all market-timey, but isn't this one of the historical signs of a market top? When kids are successful traders?
It is just getting started. The real gains are yet to come.
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by VictoriaF » Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:15 pm

...
Last edited by VictoriaF on Tue Feb 19, 2013 7:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by Default User BR » Sun Feb 17, 2013 3:17 pm

nisiprius wrote:Just one week later, that roll was worth $46.

That's a gain of 2.22% in seven days, or 213.6% annualized.
You made a huge mistake by paying cash. The post office accepts credit cards. Had you paid with a rewards card, you would have added to your returns.


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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by White Coat Investor » Sun Feb 17, 2013 5:29 pm

Do you know any 16 year olds who know how to accurately calculate an investment return? Hopefully whatever her brokerage is telling her is accurate (even if it isn't post-fee or post-tax.) Being able to calculate an accurate return is a surprisingly rare skill among investors.

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by tfb » Sun Feb 17, 2013 5:41 pm

I like this assessment on LTR (scroll down to Q&A #4):

http://www.longtermreturns.com/2013/02/ ... l-fox.html

Ms. Fox has a good PR team.
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by umfundi » Sun Feb 17, 2013 5:45 pm

Default User BR wrote:
nisiprius wrote:Just one week later, that roll was worth $46.

That's a gain of 2.22% in seven days, or 213.6% annualized.
You made a huge mistake by paying cash. The post office accepts credit cards. Had you paid with a rewards card, you would have added to your returns.
Brian
Bah! Paper profits. Please report your real return, based on a full accounting of your redemption of each of your USPS mini-bonds.

Which line of Schedule D is used to report the gain?

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by cjackson0 » Sun Feb 17, 2013 9:28 pm

kalons wrote:This reminds me of a Shia Labeouf day-trading story from a few years back. Gee, I wonder what happened to his ostensibly hot hand since then? Good thing he didn't quit his day job.
I wish he would :D
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by tfb » Sun Feb 17, 2013 10:22 pm

Here's a different 16-year-old girl:

Is This 16-Year-Old Stock Picker the Next Buffett?

Not an actress, but more prudent with fundamental analysis!
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by fidelio » Sun Feb 17, 2013 10:48 pm

years ago during one of the bull fevers i had a physician friend who explained to me one day that he would no longer have to practice medicine, as he was successfully day trading. he'd gotten a t-1 line, new desktops and displays, the whole deal. then one day he lost $40k. when his wife fund out, he disconnected the t-1 line and went back to hanging around by the pool on weekends.

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by LazyNihilist » Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:37 am

tfb wrote:Here's a different 16-year-old girl:

Is This 16-Year-Old Stock Picker the Next Buffett?

Not an actress, but more prudent with fundamental analysis!

OK something is seriously wrong. 16 year old girls are giving out investment advice and getting tons of press.
I constantly preach Bogleheads philosophy @ my office and people think I am mad. :?
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by Joe S. » Mon Feb 18, 2013 8:01 am

There have been other actors who have bragged about their day trading skills in the past. Josh Broslin was talking about his daytrading skills in 2008, near the market bottom.

When actors talk about their stock market successes, it hard to tell if they are Beardstown ladies or outright liars. Actors will do anything for publicity. Lucille Balle used to claim she could hear radio stations on her tooth fillings.


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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by Jeff7 » Mon Feb 18, 2013 10:14 am

LazyNihilist wrote:OK something is seriously wrong. 16 year old girls are giving out investment advice and getting tons of press.
I constantly preach Bogleheads philosophy @ my office and people think I am mad. :?
"Costs matter" - everywhere else, it seems. There's always the push to take costs out of products to improve profitability, or to improve our price points.
"Mutual fund costs? But we're getting a financial advisor out of the deal, and his pledged protection against the mean old Department of Labor! Either way, it's "only" costing less than 2%, so it doesn't really matter anyway."
:oops:

I'm hesitant to even bring up the idea of index funds here though, at least to anyone outside of upper management. I have the feeling that a lot of folks here are in the "gold is the only worthwhile investment" group, or the "<Company>-owner's-pick financial advisor would never steer us wrong!" group, and that I'd meet considerable opposition. Never know though, I could be mistaken on that.

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by stemikger » Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:30 am

Although this is not the Boglehead way, I'm very impressed with this young lady. She found her passion and who knows she may be able to make it work. She is very intelligent and did state in the interview that she knows the dfference between investing and day trading. I think it's great that she is into this at such a young age.
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by BuckyBadger » Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:09 pm

Wait! Isn't the second "reader question" fron this link: http://www.longtermreturns.com/2013/02/ ... l-fox.html

word for word what was posted on a thread here recently? I KNOW that I just read that on bogleheads...

Anyone else think it soudns familiar?

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by William4u » Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:19 pm

nisiprius wrote:Some friends of mine came back from a weekend at Atlantic City, saying that they'd won.

I didn't cross-examine them, but it gradually transpired that they'd won--on Saturday. And they'd lost--on Sunday. And their Sunday losses exceeded their Saturday gains. However, on Saturday they'd been following their system. On Sunday they "outsmarted themselves" and departed from the system. Now that they understand the mistake they made on Sunday, they will be able to avoid it in future, so, in their minds, it shouldn't really count.
I've heard this gambling story many times. Confirmatory bias is a widespread psychological trait.

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by ObliviousInvestor » Mon Feb 18, 2013 3:22 pm

BuckyBadger wrote:Wait! Isn't the second "reader question" fron this link: http://www.longtermreturns.com/2013/02/ ... l-fox.html

word for word what was posted on a thread here recently? I KNOW that I just read that on bogleheads...

Anyone else think it soudns familiar?
This happens to me on a regular basis. People post a question here on Bogleheads, and they email me the exact same question. Seeking input from multiple sources makes sense to me.
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by Akiva » Mon Feb 18, 2013 3:24 pm

larryswedroe wrote:I just met with a hedge fund manager who recently shut his fund down--took his chips off the table and went home. He recognized that his great run was likely luck and he knew it would run out some day.

Now his son, with a large trust now, first tried his hand at Las Vegas as poker player. That did not work (and there is real skill in long term there, though short term can be luck). Then his next try was day trading. And that failed. Best thing that ever happened to him as he is now thinking about getting real job. If he would have been successful he would have thought it was skill went it almost certainly would have been luck. The lessons were cheap because they happened early. There is virtually zero chance this girl has skill. With the large numbers of people trying some will randomly succeed. Those that do are sure it's skill. Those that fail often attribute it to bad luck. That's just human nature.
Well, at least both the guy in your story and the girl in this article tried day trading instead of some longer term trading system. Statistically, being able to distinguish skill from dumb luck is easier if you have higher turnover and more volatility (which you can get from leverage). If you trade 10x a day for 252 days (average trading year) that's 2520 data points per instrument you trade. If you only traded quarterly, then you'd need 630 years of data on your strategy to have the save amount of data...

NB: Most people's instincts from looking at this kind of data are wrong, and I've seen plenty of academic papers use poorly constructed models or bad estimation techniques when testing for skill vs luck. So I'm not suggesting that people take up day trading. I'm just observing that if you think you have the skill to beat markets, you'll have an easier time getting enough data to disprove your theory if you trade more frequently and focus on volatile instruments. So in a sense both of these people are/were being decidedly more rational than "buy and hold" investors who try to pick individual stocks.

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by Akiva » Mon Feb 18, 2013 3:28 pm

LazyNihilist wrote:
tfb wrote:Here's a different 16-year-old girl:

Is This 16-Year-Old Stock Picker the Next Buffett?

Not an actress, but more prudent with fundamental analysis!

OK something is seriously wrong. 16 year old girls are giving out investment advice and getting tons of press.
I constantly preach Bogleheads philosophy @ my office and people think I am mad. :?
Well that they are 16 year olds is surprising, but they they are girls isn't. Studies have shown that women investors tend to do better than men. So assuming that women have some slight edge on men and that some random number of people are going to try this as kids, then we'd expect an abnormally high percent of the "lucky" ones to be women.

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by BuckyBadger » Mon Feb 18, 2013 4:12 pm

ObliviousInvestor wrote:
BuckyBadger wrote:Wait! Isn't the second "reader question" fron this link: http://www.longtermreturns.com/2013/02/ ... l-fox.html

word for word what was posted on a thread here recently? I KNOW that I just read that on bogleheads...

Anyone else think it soudns familiar?
This happens to me on a regular basis. People post a question here on Bogleheads, and they email me the exact same question. Seeking input from multiple sources makes sense to me.
I agree -- I wasn't implying anything nefarious.

I was intending to see if anyone else remembered the thread because I was interested in seeing how the advice compared. I feel like there was some additional information that came out later in the thread that wasn't mentioned in the Fox on Stocks comments, but I couldn't remember the thread exactly...

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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by tfb » Mon Feb 18, 2013 4:17 pm

BuckyBadger wrote:I was intending to see if anyone else remembered the thread because I was interested in seeing how the advice compared. I feel like there was some additional information that came out later in the thread that wasn't mentioned in the Fox on Stocks comments, but I couldn't remember the thread exactly...
That thread is here: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 1&t=111093
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Re: Luck, skill, or Beardstown Lady?

Post by nisiprius » Mon Feb 18, 2013 6:53 pm

The sad thing is that this is probably a bright girl with an intelligent curiosity about investing, and instead of allowing it to take a healthy course, someone has decided that if she were a natural investing genius that would be something that could be promoted to enhance her career and make more money for her managers... and for firms like

Image

So instead of being led to greater understanding, they are inflating the natural ego of the sixteen-year-old and leading her to believe she's a genius.

The contact information in the blog is a media firm, Plastick Media, in Hollywood; "We build brands on the web."

I don't have a great store of sympathy to expend on financially exploited child actors, but I hope this don't work out too badly for her.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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