...But I do seem to recall that the title of this post was "In defense of the EMH". So I had better get around to defending it! What I want to defend is the idea behind the EMH. Even if the data rejected every single EMH, the idea would still be incredibly useful for the average person.
Let's call this idea the Random Markets Idea, or RMI.
The RMI - the general idea behind the various EMHs - is a good baseline for the personal investor (and probably for the pension fund manager too). It works pretty darn well. There are plenty of other areas in which market inefficiency/predictability may matter - financial regulation, corporate compensation, etc. - but you won't typically need to worry about those. You'll be better off treating the market as if it's more-or-less unpredictable and random.
Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
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http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.se/2013/ ... f-emh.html :
In general, sure, more-or-less unpredictable. In specific circumstances, beware! *allsop wrote:http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.se/2013/ ... f-emh.html
...You'll be better off treating the market as if it's more-or-less unpredictable and random.
* I know, a little dated.
Landy | Be yourself, everyone else is already taken -- Oscar Wilde