2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

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1682.7
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

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1234.12
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

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1511.56
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1565.64
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1567.89
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by 6miths »

englishgirl wrote:
Rick Ferri wrote:We've already gone around about this.When this board makes claims that the average Boglehead outguessed the average expert, let's be somewhat accurate in our claim. If we're not, then we're no better than Wall Street salespeople.
Wait...are you assuming that we're being serious with our guesses?
+1

I thought that the one of the points of being a Boglehead was being able to admit that I have absolutely no idea what the market is going to do in the next year and not expect to be laughed at by all those who know exactly what is going to happen! Do I need to join a new club? :D
'It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so!' Mark Twain
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by 555 »

tadamsmar wrote:
"Registration ends 12:00 pm ET January 10, 2013"
"Does 12 PM = 12 noon?"
It's one minute before 12:01 pm.
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grabiner
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by grabiner »

We seem to be full of bulls; I'll be a bear for this contest.

1248.16
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

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1369.14

I've got 12 months of my newsletter already typed up and ready to sell, just need to swap in the dates.
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1588.0
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1606.40
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by tadamsmar »

Rick Ferri wrote: We've already gone around about this.When this board makes claims that the average Boglehead outguessed the average expert, let's be somewhat accurate in our claim. If we're not, then we're no better than Wall Street salespeople.

You can guess whatever you want for whatever reason you want. My intent is to make the Boglehead average relevant so that the comparison to experts will also be relevant and useful. That's why I suggested eliminating the highest 5% and lowest 5%, and then averaging the middle 90%.
Due to game theory considerations, contestants are trying to maximize their likelihood of winning the contest will not be trying to make the most accurate guess. A less accurate guess that falls in a larger gap between other guesses might be preferable to a more accurate guess.

As for the experts, they might have "game theory" motives as well, like maximizing the attention they get rather than accuracy.
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1298.72
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1600.01
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tadamsmar
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by tadamsmar »

tadamsmar wrote:
Rick Ferri wrote: We've already gone around about this.When this board makes claims that the average Boglehead outguessed the average expert, let's be somewhat accurate in our claim. If we're not, then we're no better than Wall Street salespeople.

You can guess whatever you want for whatever reason you want. My intent is to make the Boglehead average relevant so that the comparison to experts will also be relevant and useful. That's why I suggested eliminating the highest 5% and lowest 5%, and then averaging the middle 90%.
Due to game theory considerations, contestants are trying to maximize their likelihood of winning the contest will not be trying to make the most accurate guess. A less accurate guess that falls in a larger gap between other guesses might be preferable to a more accurate guess.

As for the experts, they might have "game theory" motives as well, like maximizing the attention they get rather than accuracy.
For example, this year's winner fell in a 3.57 point gap, whereas the gap above was 0.05 and the gap below was 0.28.
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

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1440.45
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1244.74
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

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1648.68
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1516.02
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1508.43
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1394.81
BH contests: 2020 #253 of 664 | 19 #233 of 645 | 18 #150 of 493 | 17 #516 of 647 | 16 #121 of 610 | 15 #18 of 552 | 14 #225 of 503 | 13 #383 of 433 | 12 #366 of 410 | 11 #113 of 369 | 10 #53 of 282
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1,622.22 :sharebeer
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1555.55
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Post by Sbashore »

Ok here goes:

1601.58
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1515.33
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1472.40
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1526.13
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by kenyan »

tadamsmar wrote:
Due to game theory considerations, contestants are trying to maximize their likelihood of winning the contest will not be trying to make the most accurate guess. A less accurate guess that falls in a larger gap between other guesses might be preferable to a more accurate guess.
That was basically my outlook - no clue what the market will do, so I just went away from the crowd. Didn't go so far as to see where the large gaps were; it's not worth my time. Last year, this strategy put me somewhere around #200.
Retirement investing is a marathon.
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by l2ridehd »

During the year a high of 1621.43, a low of 1221.86 and a year end final of 1516.17. So lots of volatility up and down but overall a decent year.
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1710.53
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1,523.27 :sharebeer
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1757.066.
Looking forward to the autographed book.
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1503.65
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1426.XX
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1350.00
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by grabiner »

tadamsmar wrote:Due to game theory considerations, contestants are trying to maximize their likelihood of winning the contest will not be trying to make the most accurate guess. A less accurate guess that falls in a larger gap between other guesses might be preferable to a more accurate guess.

As for the experts, they might have "game theory" motives as well, like maximizing the attention they get rather than accuracy.
Game theory is certainly my motivation. I'm usually a bear in the competition, projecting a 10% loss. If I actually expected the S&P to lose 10% this year, I wouldn't be invested in stocks.
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1529.8 :wink:
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1597.79
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1543.21
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1427.45
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Rick Ferri »

grabiner wrote:
tadamsmar wrote:Due to game theory considerations, contestants are trying to maximize their likelihood of winning the contest will not be trying to make the most accurate guess. A less accurate guess that falls in a larger gap between other guesses might be preferable to a more accurate guess.

As for the experts, they might have "game theory" motives as well, like maximizing the attention they get rather than accuracy.
Game theory is certainly my motivation. I'm usually a bear in the competition, projecting a 10% loss. If I actually expected the S&P to lose 10% this year, I wouldn't be invested in stocks.
I guess 20% over the close every year and that makes me a gamer as well.

Rick Ferri
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.
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1557.77
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1634 ~~ 8-)
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1487.8
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