2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

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nisiprius
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by nisiprius » Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:52 pm

I didn't so so well, huh? :)

Put down 12579.10 for me. Again. (Yes, five digits before the decimal point, and yes, I know it's the S&P, not the Dow).

Added: I have received a request to "Please edit your guess to no more than a 100% increase." So I am changing that. Accordingly, my entry is changed to:

2579.10
Last edited by nisiprius on Tue Jan 01, 2013 5:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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HighFive
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by HighFive » Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:52 pm

1486.10

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Boglenaut
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Boglenaut » Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:53 pm

nisiprius wrote:I didn't so so well, huh? :)

Put down 12579.10 for me. Again. (Yes, five digits before the decimal point, and yes, I know it's the S&P, not the Dow).
:oops:

We should base the Boglehead performance on Median and not mean this year to account for Outliers.

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by muddyglass » Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:54 pm

1509.68

PedsDoc
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by PedsDoc » Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:55 pm

1597.33

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JamesSFO
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by JamesSFO » Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:55 pm

1500.00 even (a touch more than 5% return)

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Austintatious » Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:58 pm

1567.0

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by chaz » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:01 pm

1569.22
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Tortoise » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:04 pm

1490. Only a 4.5% gain this year.
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by gotherelate » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:05 pm

1691.47

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Mel Lindauer » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:07 pm

1313.13 in 2013! (Sure hope I'm wrong.)
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by BHCadet » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:08 pm

1655.53

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by monkatca » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:10 pm

1607.82 :happy

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:11 pm

1471.01

I used my scientific calculator for more accuracy.
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by jimbojones » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:12 pm

1384.04

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Dovahkiin » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:13 pm

1540.41

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by kd2008 » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:14 pm

1515.15

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by DR » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:18 pm

1611.06

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by EyeYield » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:20 pm

1522.77
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by AQ » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:20 pm

1456.78

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by IlikeJackB » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:22 pm

1739.96. 22% gain for 2013. :moneybag
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by AlohaBill » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:25 pm

1645.8348

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by livelife » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:26 pm

1682.13

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Johm221122 » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:27 pm

1600.00

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by vital15 » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:27 pm

1428.10

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by mudfud » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:29 pm

Just realized that I came in second for 2012. Alas, no prizes for that! :wink: (not really complaining--in another fluke I somehow won the "Lazy Portfolio Smackdown" on this board a couple of years ago.)

My guess for 2013: 1631.56

Best wishes to all,

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by shipwreck » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:32 pm

1511.77

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by pjstack » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:33 pm

My carefully calculated prediction is 1568.82.
pjstack

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Walleye12 » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:39 pm

1517.22

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Don Christy
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Don Christy » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:42 pm

1718.19
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by JDaniels » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:44 pm

1563.11
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Igglesman » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:54 pm

1603.52

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Norris » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:55 pm

1514.

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Fat-Tailed Contagion » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:56 pm

1312.11

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by potto0213 » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:58 pm

My guess is 1624.13

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Cash » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:58 pm

1622.43

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by maverick1968 » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:59 pm

1570.13

Fraction part added to honor the new year.

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by nodenuff2 » Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:00 pm

1580.21
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Rick Ferri » Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:02 pm

I'm going with my usual 20% over the market year-end close:

1,711.44

Go big or go home! :D

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johnz1001
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by johnz1001 » Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:13 pm

1486.11

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by stan1 » Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:14 pm

1514.00

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by bmelikia » Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:15 pm

1586.19
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by jayhawker_bobstl » Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:27 pm

1524.3
----------------- | jayhawker_bobstl

Silence Dogood
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Silence Dogood » Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:29 pm

1550.00
Last edited by Silence Dogood on Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by nhdean » Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:31 pm

1601.39

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runner26
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by runner26 » Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:36 pm

1503.10

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stickman731
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by stickman731 » Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:36 pm

1530.60

dhc
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by dhc » Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:41 pm

pjstack wrote:My carefully calculated prediction is 1568.82.
Rats, I was getting hopeful this far down the page when no one had taken that yet...

Let's make mine 1568 even.

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Rick Ferri
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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Rick Ferri » Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:45 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:Bogleheads:

Last January, we had 396 Bogleheads forecast where the S&P 500 Index would be at the end of 2012. Their guesses ranged from 12579 to 600. The Index closed at 1426.20 for a gain of 12.4% (16% if dividends were included). The average Boglehead guess was 1384. Fourteen of Wall Street "experts" did worse with their average forecast of 1368.

http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/con ... index.html
Taylor,

Sorry to throw water on the New Year's party, but I looked again at last year's results and have to point out an obvious error in the numbers. It appears that the decimal point of one Boglehead guess was misplaced. Guess 12579.1 should have been 1257.91. After correcting this error, the average for the 396 Bogleheads' was 1355.38. This was below the average expert's guess of 1367.71.

Rick Ferri
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.

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Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by phantom » Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:46 pm

1371.12

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