What was your 2012 return?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.

What was your overall 2012 return?

Negative Return
1
0%
0-4.9%
10
2%
5-7.4%
21
4%
7.5-9.9%
85
15%
10-12.4%
143
26%
12.5-14.9%
149
27%
15-17.4%
82
15%
17.5-19.9%
22
4%
20-24.9%
8
1%
25-29.9%
0
No votes
>30%
1
0%
I don't know and I don't care
33
6%
That's rude to ask
3
1%
 
Total votes: 558

baldbull
Posts: 19
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 11:09 am

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by baldbull »

I was up 17.9%

Vanguard Index
Utilizing a mild Merrimans buy and hold vanguard index portfolio.

I was 80% Various Equity Domestic and International indexs
10% Reits
5% short term bonds
5% high yield corp


I have a long term horizon but I am still going to up bond exposure to 20% at some point in 2013. I know I have too much allocated but equities...paid off last year but I have felt the bite in the past.
spotty_dog
Posts: 93
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2012 9:06 am

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by spotty_dog »

XIRR gave me 10.9% across all our retirement-directed investments. (Left cash emergency fund out of it). About 70/30 (sliced and diced), still very non-Bogleish with dozens of funds and common stocks and etc. Hoping that simplifying will help with next year's returns. I think my benchmark should be something like Fidelity's Freedom fund 2030, which returned about 13.4%. Likewise, the kids' college funds that are in essentially 3-fund portfolios (a bit more aggressive than our retirement savings) returned 13.1%. So we have room to improve.

Also found that we put about 24% of gross income into retirement investments (taxable and tax-deferred), 6% into college savings, and 14% into paying down the principal balance on the mortgage (lump sum, not including monthly payments to principal). Since committing to a high saving rate is our priority right now, and maximizing the return on our investments is secondary, I'm pretty pleased with this.
64415
Posts: 199
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 8:32 pm

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by 64415 »

IRRC was 16.28% on an 80:20 portfolio. International is 40%, and there is an aggressive tilt to small and value.
livesoft
Posts: 85971
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:00 pm

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by livesoft »

I'm impressed with the number of votes plus the fact that many people seemed to figure out how to use XIRR() or other software to calculate a return. I think this is quite different from previous years.
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letsgobobby
Posts: 12073
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2009 1:10 am

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by letsgobobby »

Translation: we need a new poll question:

How did you calculate your 2012 return?

1. XIRR
2. IRR
3. BLM (Beardstown Ladies Method)
4. Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, etc told me in a little pie chart or bar graph
5. I guessed
6. I added (5% in my IRA and 5% in my 401k = 10%)
7. Other
Rodc
Posts: 13601
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:46 am

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by Rodc »

. Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, etc told me in a little pie chart or bar graph
I checked Fidelity against XIRR once and got the same answer, so if I want to know for a time period that Fidelity covers I just use that.
We live a world with knowledge of the future markets has less than one significant figure. And people will still and always demand answers to three significant digits.
64415
Posts: 199
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 8:32 pm

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by 64415 »

I have found it interesting to compare the time weighted returns with the time and dollar weighted returns (ie, the internal rate of return). Especially since I periodically raid my taxable accounts to buy farmground. It is a good way to quantify how well you are hardwired to "buy low and sell high".
Sriracha
Posts: 524
Joined: Mon May 31, 2010 12:14 pm

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by Sriracha »

letsgobobby wrote:6. I added (5% in my IRA and 5% in my 401k = 10%)
:!: :D
Don't reach for yield.
MKP
Posts: 228
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 7:56 pm

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by MKP »

15.9% 401K using all domestic stock index funds
13% in Roth using domestic/intl index funds
9% in Roth for bond funds.

So the blended total on the year was 13.1% bonds/stock were 50/50 for much of the year, but by year end I got it down to 70/30, and now it is 80/20 (which is where it always should have been, but part of my emfund was in bonds-since I had to make my contributions).
btenny
Posts: 5694
Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2007 6:47 pm

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by btenny »

I find my returns for 2012 are low compared to many of you. In the 6% range for 40% stock portfolio. But my portfolio is not totally Boglehead in setup as it includes a lot of oil single stocks that I have owned for a long time plus a good dose of cash and short term bond funds instead of Total Bond market or other Intermediate term funds. Net net these factors have lowered my returns this year but raised it in other years. Overall my 10 year returns are quite good relative to all the Lazy portfolios.

So I am wondering what others 10 year returns are? Can someone rebuild this survey with 5 year and 10 year numbers?
Thoughts? Comments?

Thanks,
Bill
livesoft
Posts: 85971
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:00 pm

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by livesoft »

I would think 5 and 10 year numbers would be even less trustworthy.
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dhc
Posts: 98
Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2012 7:58 pm

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by dhc »

Rodc wrote:
. Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, etc told me in a little pie chart or bar graph
I checked Fidelity against XIRR once and got the same answer, so if I want to know for a time period that Fidelity covers I just use that.
Fidelity says my 2012 return was about twice what it was according to XIRR. Not quite sure what to make of that...maybe they counted employer match as earnings?
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Ketawa
Posts: 2521
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:11 am
Location: DC

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by Ketawa »

16.64% on an 80/20 portfolio with a healthy dose of small value tilt. However, in August I decided to commit to a heavier tilt, in September I decided to shift to market weights for domestic/intl split, and I started tax-adjusting my asset allocation in December. My asset allocation is tax-adjusted while my XIRR calculations are not. So who really knows?

EDIT - I noticed I'm well above all the lines for my stock/bond split. I'm guessing it's because I increased my international holdings in August. I also dropped REITs then in favor of a higher small value tilt and because there's a lot of REITs already in VBR, my largest holding (about 25% of portfolio).
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baw703916
Posts: 6681
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2007 1:10 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by baw703916 »

I'm too lazy to put together a spreadsheet to run XIRR on. So I'll just take the numbers from the TSP, Vanguard, and ETrade, although I have no idea if they are all using the same methodology. I'm also too lazy to take a weighted average of the different accounts, but eyeballing it, it's probably in the 12.5% - 14.9% range for a 75/25 portfolio with some size and value tilts.

It's kind of useless information, though. Not actionable.
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.
anjou
Posts: 164
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2007 11:55 am

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by anjou »

2012 was a very good year, especially in comparison to the previous years. My 70% stock / 30% bond portfolio returned 13.2% last year. Blended benchmark index return was 13%. With an expense ratio of 0.15%, I guess I was able to beat the index by 0.35%. 2012 CPI just released shows it to be 2.1%. So my real return was 11.1%.

Nice to see folks doing well. Keep it up!

Best wishes.
Anjou.
Rodc
Posts: 13601
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:46 am

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by Rodc »

dhc wrote:
Rodc wrote:
. Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, etc told me in a little pie chart or bar graph
I checked Fidelity against XIRR once and got the same answer, so if I want to know for a time period that Fidelity covers I just use that.
Fidelity says my 2012 return was about twice what it was according to XIRR. Not quite sure what to make of that...maybe they counted employer match as earnings?
Interesting. I'll have to recheck.

Ok, checked: XIRR says 13.63%, fidelity said 13.8%. Don't know how they differ in dealing with things like February has 28 days not 30.41 days, etc. That is, one or the other may have a little bit more approximation error than the other.

They clearly counted match as invested dollars, not earnings.

Close enough for my purposes.
We live a world with knowledge of the future markets has less than one significant figure. And people will still and always demand answers to three significant digits.
wander
Posts: 4419
Joined: Sat Oct 04, 2008 9:10 am

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by wander »

I really don't know my 2012 return, but I know my portfolio is all time high.
rustymutt
Posts: 4001
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2009 11:03 am

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by rustymutt »

One thing missing from this thread is how much risk you took to get your return. I'm at 60/40 allocation, and 60/40 US/International with in this. I invest in US short, and intermediate term bonds, and TIPs both short and long.
Our combined return was over 9%. Risk does play a big part in returns.
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singletond
Posts: 27
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2010 6:15 pm
Location: San Antonio Texas

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by singletond »

15.8% Data from Vanguard, about 90% VG stock index funds broadly diversified across domestic and int.
livesoft
Posts: 85971
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:00 pm

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by livesoft »

rustymutt wrote:One thing missing from this thread is how much risk you took to get your return.
Many folks have noted their stock:bond ratios. Also the benchmarks chart earlier in the thread notes this as well:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 2#p1568552

And bigfoot48 charted responses here: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 0#p1570010
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c00kie
Posts: 102
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 3:31 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by c00kie »

Would this give me a fairly accurate rate of return?

(Ending Value - Beginning Value - Current Year Contributions) / Ending Value = Rate of Return
appreviated EV - BV - CYC / EV = RR

EV = $100,000 BV = $80,000 CYC = $7,000

(100,000 - 80,000 - 7,000) / 100,000 = 13% Rate of Return

It seems to me that if the current year's contributions (CYC) are less than 5% of the Beginning Value, then this computation would be fairly accurate. The higher the percent of CYC compared to BV the lesser the accuracy.

The computation would be closest to accurate if the CYC were made at the end of the year, close to accurate if the CYC where made through out the year and the least accurate (but still fairly accurate) if the CYC were made at the beginning of the year.

Am I missing anything major?

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White Coat Investor
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Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by White Coat Investor »

Why be fairly accurate when XIRR is so easy?

What you're missing is the date of the contributions. If your contribution size pales in comparison to your portfolio size, then yes, you're probably pretty close using that method. If your contributions constitute any decent percentage of your portfolio, then your return could be pretty far off?
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
porcupine
Posts: 1267
Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2010 11:05 am

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by porcupine »

c00kie wrote:Would this give me a fairly accurate rate of return?

(Ending Value - Beginning Value - Current Year Contributions) / Ending Value = Rate of Return
appreviated EV - BV - CYC / EV = RR

EV = $100,000 BV = $80,000 CYC = $7,000

(100,000 - 80,000 - 7,000) / 100,000 = 13% Rate of Return

It seems to me that if the current year's contributions (CYC) are less than 5% of the Beginning Value, then this computation would be fairly accurate. The higher the percent of CYC compared to BV the lesser the accuracy.

The computation would be closest to accurate if the CYC were made at the end of the year, close to accurate if the CYC where made through out the year and the least accurate (but still fairly accurate) if the CYC were made at the beginning of the year.

Am I missing anything major?

Cookie
Here is your equation, slightly modified...

If most contributions were at the end of the year (or if you just want a back of the envelope non-Boglehead figure) ...

(Ending Value - Beginning Value - Current Year Contributions) / Beginning Value = Rate of Return
appreviated (EV - BV - CYC) / BV = RR

If most contributions were at the beginning of the year ...

(Ending Value - Beginning Value - Current Year Contributions) / (Beginning Value + Current Year Contributions) = Rate of Return
appreviated (EV - BV - CYC) / (BV + CYC) = RR

If contributions were throughout the year ...

(Ending Value - Beginning Value - Current Year Contributions) / (Beginning Value + Current Year Contributions/2) = Rate of Return
appreviated (EV - BV - CYC) / (BV + CYC/2) = RR

- Porcupine
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kenyan
Posts: 3015
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Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by kenyan »

kenyan wrote:15.5% using numbers my brokerages are giving me rather than XIRR (don't keep track of every contribution, they're too frequent).

75/25, S&D.
Well, I went and did an XIRR calculation using quarterly contributions (selecting the midpoint of the quarter) rather than breaking it down by every single contribution date. Should be quite close to reality, since all of these are regular weekly or monthly contributions. My return was actually 15.8%.

Edited for some contributions I missed previously.
Retirement investing is a marathon.
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c00kie
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Location: Chicago

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by c00kie »

Thank-you Porcupine.

That's what I'm looking for. An easy way to determine my rate of return.
I'm very willing to give up a bit of accuracy for ease of computation.

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scrabbler1
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Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2009 1:39 pm

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Post by scrabbler1 »

c00kie wrote:Would this give me a fairly accurate rate of return?

(Ending Value - Beginning Value - Current Year Contributions) / Ending Value = Rate of Return
appreviated EV - BV - CYC / EV = RR

EV = $100,000 BV = $80,000 CYC = $7,000

(100,000 - 80,000 - 7,000) / 100,000 = 13% Rate of Return

It seems to me that if the current year's contributions (CYC) are less than 5% of the Beginning Value, then this computation would be fairly accurate. The higher the percent of CYC compared to BV the lesser the accuracy.

The computation would be closest to accurate if the CYC were made at the end of the year, close to accurate if the CYC where made through out the year and the least accurate (but still fairly accurate) if the CYC were made at the beginning of the year.

Am I missing anything major?

Cookie
Besdies the suggestions porcupine posted, what if your investments paid out dividends and cap gain distributions (a.k.a. realized gains) which were not reinvested (it appears you assume they are reinvested in your equation)?

My formula is (realized gains + unrealized gains + dividends) / starting value = rate of return.

Unrealized gains is the change in investment value excluding any new purchases or redemptions.

I do this on a monthly basis and convert to a factor form (add 1) so I can multiply 12 consecutive monthly changes to get an annual change. Multiply 60 consecuive monthly changes and raise it to the 1/5 power and I can get an annualized 5-year change.
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