2008 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

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Taylor Larimore
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2008 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Hi Bogleheads:

We are pleased to announce our seventh annual Boglehead Contest to see who can outguess the best Wall Street Gurus forecasting the S&P 500 Index price on December 31, 2008.

In 2007 we had 309 participants with guesses ranging from 950 to 1844. Our winner was Larry Schellhase from L.A., California who forecast a year-end price of 1467 -- virtually identical to the actual price of 1468.

It is notible that our Bogleheads average guess (1489) was better than the professional "Experts" (1539). You can view the final 2007 Contest results here:

http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/con ... x2007.html

For 2008, we have 12 Wall Street forecasts. All expect the S&P index to be up in the year ahead:

GUESS
1700 Bear Stearns
1700 HSBC
1680 Strategas
1675 Goldman
1675 Citigroup
1650 Credit Suisse
1630 Lehman
1625 Banc of America
1600 AG Edwards
1590 JP Morgan
1590 Wachovia
1525 Morgan Stanley

Think you can beat Wall Street experts? Here is your chance. If you win the contest, your prize will be our updated "Bogleheads' Guide to Investing" and your choice of any book written by our mentor, Jack Bogle.

THE RULES:
1. Guess the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2008.
2. Only one guess (no percentages)..
3. Registration closes midnight January, 10, 2008.
4. In event of ties, the first guess wins.
5. Winner must post an acknowledgement on the Diehard or Boglehead forum by January 10, 2009 (to confirm username), otherwise the runner-up will be selected.
6. Post your guess in a Reply below.

You can monitor your guess here:

http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/contest

Happy New Year and Good Luck!
Taylor & Mel
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Wed Jan 02, 2008 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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goosecat
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Post by goosecat »

1661
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mudfud
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Post by mudfud »

1601
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MarilynDennison
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Post by MarilynDennison »

1657
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Mel Lindauer
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Mel's Guess

Post by Mel Lindauer »

1616.16
TimDex
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TimDex's guess

Post by TimDex »

1321

Tim
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jeffyscott
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Post by jeffyscott »

1477
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MWCA
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Post by MWCA »

1347
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United
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Post by United »

1616, about a 10% gain.
snowbound
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Post by snowbound »

1572
"When someone you love becomes a memory, the memory becomes a treasure"
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SuzyC
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Post by SuzyC »

1575
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Cb
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Post by Cb »

1570
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murfields
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Post by murfields »

1636
"Nobody wants to have in his cash holdings a definite number of pieces of money; he wants to keep a cash holdings of a definite amount of purchasing power"
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chuck-b
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Guess

Post by chuck-b »

1572.91
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DelrayDave
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Guess

Post by DelrayDave »

1569
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BigFoot48
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Post by BigFoot48 »

1567.89

same as this year
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 14-time loser
ruud
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Post by ruud »

1542
gkaplan
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Post by gkaplan »

1212.70
Gordon
Display
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Boglehead Contest

Post by Display »

1590
Charles
dandetour
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Post by dandetour »

1540
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theduke
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Post by theduke »

1630
donocash
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Post by donocash »

1362
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Ariel
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Post by Ariel »

1424
Do what you will, the capital is at hazard ... - Justice Samuel Putnam (1830), as quoted by John Bogle (1994)
rb313
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Post by rb313 »

1539
BearFodder
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2008 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by BearFodder »

1331
James4639
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Post by James4639 »

1310
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JMacDonald
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Post by JMacDonald »

Hi,
My guess is 1526.72.
Best Wishes, | Joe
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jjkthunder
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Post by jjkthunder »

Happy New Year

SP500 will be 1553
GLI...................Jack | | You can call me anything you want but please don't call me NORMAL
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mickeyd
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Post by mickeyd »

For 2008, we have 12 Wall Street forecasts. All expect the S&P index to be up in the year ahead:

GUESS
1700 Bear Stearns
1700 HSBC
1680 Strategas
1675 Goldman
1675 Citigroup
1650 Credit Suisse
1630 Lehman
1625 Banc of America
1600 AG Edwards
1590 JP Morgan
1590 Wachovia
1525 Morgan Stanley
Weak field Taylor. How about some tough competition for 2008? :lol:

I will have to give my official 2008 forecast some more thought though.
Last edited by mickeyd on Tue Jan 01, 2008 5:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Part-Owner of Texas | | “The CMH-the Cost Matters Hypothesis -is all that is needed to explain why indexing must and will work… Yes, it is that simple.” John C. Bogle
mptfan
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Post by mptfan »

1583.52
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bilperk
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Post by bilperk »

my guess:

1503.67

best,
Bill
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Ariel
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Re: 2008 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Ariel »

Taylor Larimore wrote: For 2008, we have 12 Wall Street forecasts. All expect the S&P index to be up in the year ahead:

GUESS
1700 Bear Stearns
1700 HSBC
1680 Strategas
1675 Goldman
1675 Citigroup
1650 Credit Suisse
1630 Lehman
1625 Banc of America
1600 AG Edwards
1590 JP Morgan
1590 Wachovia
1525 Morgan Stanley

Taylor & Mel
It's very interesting just how high these predictions are. The lowest of the 12 is almost 4% above 2007 end of year. Add in dividends at about 1.8%, even the low analyst is predicting a 5.5% or so gain. The second lowest predicts up around 8.3%, which makes a 10% gain with dividends included. The median prediction is 1640, which makes a gain of about 13.5% with dividends. And the top two predictions are expecting about 17.5% with dividends included.

It sounds very bullish! :shock: Or maybe they want to sell something? :twisted: I think I will be a little extra cautious!! 8)
Do what you will, the capital is at hazard ... - Justice Samuel Putnam (1830), as quoted by John Bogle (1994)
Oddibe McDowell
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Post by Oddibe McDowell »

1592
Last edited by Oddibe McDowell on Tue Jan 01, 2008 5:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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mdrileynyc
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boglehead contest

Post by mdrileynyc »

1551
haban01
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Contest

Post by haban01 »

Hello Taylor-

S & P 500 will close in New York on December 31st 2008 at 4pm with a good year for market returns.

My Guess: 1614.80


Best Wishes & Happy New Year
Eric | | "Stay the Course" | "Press on Regardless"
mmg
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Post by mmg »

1574
sport
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Post by sport »

1500

Jeff
harland
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Post by harland »

1556 seems like a good number.
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tetractys
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Post by tetractys »

I'll guess 1668. Thats 13.6 percent which alchemically adds up to 10.
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Rick Ferri
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Post by Rick Ferri »

1702.1

Go big or go home!

Rick Ferri
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CABob
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1543.21

Post by CABob »

My guess is 1543.21.

Bob
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White Coat Investor
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Post by White Coat Investor »

1684
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
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stratton
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Post by stratton »

1556.46

Paul
diasurfer
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Post by diasurfer »

1564
Singapore
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1439

Post by Singapore »

Since the "pros" are so bullish... and so often wrong... I'm being a contrarian by predicting a slightly down year at 1439.

Paul
retiredtom
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Post by retiredtom »

My guess 1555.55
Herring123
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Post by Herring123 »

Longtime lurker, first time contest participant... My guess is 1602
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Justin618
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Post by Justin618 »

1378

Happy New Years
mur44
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Very, Very Bullish 2008

Post by mur44 »

1924
alindog31
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Post by alindog31 »

1479
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