The most depressing financial newsletter ever
- jeffyscott
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The most depressing financial newsletter ever
In GMO's quarterly letter Jeremy Grantham's piece is titled "Welcome to Dystopia! Entering a long-term and politically dangerous food crisis"
This piece points out all the ways we are doomed, with a time frame of a few decades (food, conventional energy, metals) to a few centuries (boil the planet, even if all energy use is converted to renewable sources or fusion). Anyway, he gives this one-line summary of his advice: "I am very bearish on the problems we humans face and, sadly, very bullish on resources."
He particularly recommends "forestry and farms". He does not really explain how he invests in these, it seems that one would just have to buy up land that can be used to grow crops and trees. While I own a natural resources fund, I am far too lazy to get into buying up tracts of land.
I did find this: http://seekingalpha.com/article/777681- ... ood-crisis
which mentions "rumors for a couple of years about a REIT that invests in farmland". My guess would be that this will become available to the retail investor about the time a bubble has developed.
This piece points out all the ways we are doomed, with a time frame of a few decades (food, conventional energy, metals) to a few centuries (boil the planet, even if all energy use is converted to renewable sources or fusion). Anyway, he gives this one-line summary of his advice: "I am very bearish on the problems we humans face and, sadly, very bullish on resources."
He particularly recommends "forestry and farms". He does not really explain how he invests in these, it seems that one would just have to buy up land that can be used to grow crops and trees. While I own a natural resources fund, I am far too lazy to get into buying up tracts of land.
I did find this: http://seekingalpha.com/article/777681- ... ood-crisis
which mentions "rumors for a couple of years about a REIT that invests in farmland". My guess would be that this will become available to the retail investor about the time a bubble has developed.
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Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
How about guns and ammo, if you buy his projections?
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
Jeremy has been a permadoomer for years, IMO. But according to the CXO Advisory "Guru Grades" list, he's only 49% accurate. If you're depressed, read Ken Fisher, he's a lot more cheerful and 64% accurate!
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/
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Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
I presume that what you mean here is to buy guns and ammo and give them to your neighbors, who are also your very good friends. If you just buy them for yourself, well, the bad guys can buy them as well and can gang up on you.ResNullius wrote:How about guns and ammo, if you buy his projections?
If Grantham is right, I'd invest in bicycle parts. Bicycles are going to be the only way to get around and human powered machinery is going to be the only way to make anything.
Personally, I find Grantham a refreshing counterbalance to the "the next big thing" crowd.
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
I'm not aware there is any global food crisis, except in the very poorest countries, which will always be the case.
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
Humans will adapt, I suppose we will all become vegitarians and abandon ethonol, and that would give us another several hundred years or so on the food front. Hydrocarbons? who knows, we could be more efficeint with how we use our resources and not make decisions based on the current market price of those fuels. No matter what, its going to a very complex world to navigate in the future.
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
Abandon ethanol? What would I drink with my vegetarian food?Snowjob wrote:Humans will adapt, I suppose we will all become vegitarians and abandon ethonol...
That's what I do: I drink, and I know things. --Tyrion Lannister
- jeffyscott
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Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
Yes, clearly there must be no shortage in the US, given that we turn 40% of our corn crop into fuel. He is referring to a global food crisis and he does say "the main contributor to reducing the food imbalance between supply and demand is once again likely to be price: more of the poor will eat less and some, regrettably, will eat nothing". He basically seems to be saying that the impact on the wealthy countries would result from the destabilization of those that do have a food crisis.yobria wrote:I'm not aware there is any global food crisis, except in the very poorest countries, which will always be the case.
I guess this summer's drought may give us a preview of what we may expect from a further rise in food prices.
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
When I was at UC in the late sixties, I took a class called "The Population Bomb."
People, the class synopsis said, were breeding like ghetto rats. Disaster was going to hit no later than the 1980s. Food would run out; there would be riots, famine, pestilence. Also massive population loss.
Didn't quite pan out that way.
"Club of Rome" type projections seem to be highly scientific, with lots of graphs and equations to undergird the predictions of The Final Days. Amazingly enough, the line charts and rows of numbers don't seem to make the predictions accurate.
People, the class synopsis said, were breeding like ghetto rats. Disaster was going to hit no later than the 1980s. Food would run out; there would be riots, famine, pestilence. Also massive population loss.
Didn't quite pan out that way.
"Club of Rome" type projections seem to be highly scientific, with lots of graphs and equations to undergird the predictions of The Final Days. Amazingly enough, the line charts and rows of numbers don't seem to make the predictions accurate.
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
I agree. Rising prices create tremendous incentives for intelligent people to find innovative solutions. The cycle of incentives driving innovation has repeated throughout history. Grantham and the "Club of Rome" types sees a world with 7 billion mouths to feed, but others see 7 billion brains motivated to find solutions.steve roy wrote:"Club of Rome" type projections seem to be highly scientific, with lots of graphs and equations to undergird the predictions of The Final Days. Amazingly enough, the line charts and rows of numbers don't seem to make the predictions accurate.
Will we always be able to innovate our resource scarcity problems away? Maybe not. There will probably come a time when Jeremy Grantham, or his XXth century equivalent, will turn out to be correct. Nevertheless, it is far easier to see the challenges on the horizon than it is to predict the solutions that people will come up with. The Granthams of history don't have a very good track record.
I'm certainly not going to tilt my portfolio to overweight $8000 per acre Iowa farmland (or canned goods and ammo) based on his analysis.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful." - George E. P Box
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
Yep, no doubt about it, we're all going to die, me sooner than most of you. Oh well.
pjstack
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
Abandon ethanol? Are you crazy? Depressing news like this makes most people reach for more ethanol - for instance flavored with juniper berries and with a little vermouth mixed in, served with an olive. Besides, ethanol is 8 kcal/gram so during food shortages it could come in handy.Snowjob wrote:Humans will adapt, I suppose we will all become vegitarians and abandon ethonol,
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
Isn't this news about 45 years old? Some of us here lived it.
Hmm, where have I heard that term?When I was at UC in the late sixties, I took a class called "The Population Bomb."
[Paul R.] Ehrlich became well-known after publication of his controversial 1968 book The Population Bomb. In the years since many of Ehrlich's predictions have proven incorrect, but he stands by his general thesis that the human population is too large and is a direct threat to human survival and the environment of the planet. He is also known for the famous Simon–Ehrlich wager, a bet about the trend of prices for certain metals that he made in 1980 with, and lost to, economist Julian Simon.
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
Quiz time: How old is this quote?
"The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man".
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
214 years.sscritic wrote:Quiz time: How old is this quote?"The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man".
That's what I do: I drink, and I know things. --Tyrion Lannister
- nisiprius
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Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
Another challenge. When was this written?
The writer finds very considerable reason for believing that, within a period to be estimated by weeks and months rather than by aeons, there has been a fundamental change in the conditions under which life, not simply human life but all self-conscious existence, has been going on since its beginning.... If his thinking has been sound, then this world is at the end of its tether. The end of everything we call life is close at hand and cannot be evaded.... He will do his best to indicated why he has succumbed to so stupendous a proposition.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
Maybe bogleheads should invest in drug companies that make anti-depressants.
- backofbeyond
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Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
HG Wells Time Machine 1895nisiprius wrote:Another challenge. When was this written?The writer finds very considerable reason for believing that, within a period to be estimated by weeks and months rather than by aeons, there has been a fundamental change in the conditions under which life, not simply human life but all self-conscious existence, has been going on since its beginning.... If his thinking has been sound, then this world is at the end of its tether. The end of everything we call life is close at hand and cannot be evaded.... He will do his best to indicated why he has succumbed to so stupendous a proposition.
The question isn't at what age I want to retire, it is at what income. - George Foreman
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
I believe it is Mind At The End Of Its Tether (1945)backofbeyond wrote:HG Wells Time Machine 1895nisiprius wrote:Another challenge. When was this written?The writer finds very considerable reason for believing that, within a period to be estimated by weeks and months rather than by aeons, there has been a fundamental change in the conditions under which life, not simply human life but all self-conscious existence, has been going on since its beginning.... If his thinking has been sound, then this world is at the end of its tether. The end of everything we call life is close at hand and cannot be evaded.... He will do his best to indicated why he has succumbed to so stupendous a proposition.
Marked by the times.
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Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
Correct. Although there might be something subtle in backofbeyond's smiley, since it's hard to believe he'd get the correct writer but the wrong work. I did include the word "tether" in the part I quoted as a clue.gabylon wrote:I believe it is Mind At The End Of Its Tether (1945) Marked by the times.backofbeyond wrote:HG Wells Time Machine 1895
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
Here's one of the write-ups of the "Great Horse-Manure Crisis of 1894":
http://www.thefreemanonline.org/columns ... s-of-1894/
http://www.thefreemanonline.org/columns ... s-of-1894/
Since then there has been a lot about paradigm shift published.Writing in the Times of London in 1894, one writer estimated that in 50 years every street in London would be buried under nine feet of manure.
Last edited by livesoft on Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:13 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
nisiprius wrote:Another challenge. When was this written?The writer finds very considerable reason for believing that, within a period to be estimated by weeks and months rather than by aeons, there has been a fundamental change in the conditions under which life, not simply human life but all self-conscious existence, has been going on since its beginning.... If his thinking has been sound, then this world is at the end of its tether. The end of everything we call life is close at hand and cannot be evaded.... He will do his best to indicated why he has succumbed to so stupendous a proposition.
According to your post, Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:26 pm.
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
That's when it was copied and pasted, not when it was written.SP-diceman wrote:According to your post, Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:26 pm.nisiprius wrote:Another challenge. When was this written?The writer finds very considerable reason for believing that, within a period to be estimated by weeks and months rather than by aeons, there has been a fundamental change in the conditions under which life, not simply human life but all self-conscious existence, has been going on since its beginning.... If his thinking has been sound, then this world is at the end of its tether. The end of everything we call life is close at hand and cannot be evaded.... He will do his best to indicated why he has succumbed to so stupendous a proposition.
Or are you thinking about when when was this written written?
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
sscritic, I think that one went right over your head.
pinelson:
pinelson:
Shaken, not stirred.Abandon ethanol? Are you crazy? Depressing news like this makes most people reach for more ethanol - for instance flavored with juniper berries and with a little vermouth mixed in, served with an olive.
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
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Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
Reminds me a lot of some of the Y2K frenzy. I was living in Alaska in 1999 and vividly recall being invited to a friends house for a big Christmas dinner in 1999. My friends neighbor was also there for dinner and he spent the whole evening warning us about being prepared for the worst. They guy had spent about 100 grand building a massive fallout shelter stocked with a year's supply of food and fuel and all manner of exotic arms. People were going to be rioting in the street he was telling us and we're all going to have to arm ourselves to protect our own.
Alaska does tend to attract those types but I remember thinking. Who's going to be rioting? All these neighbors of yours who would drop anything their doing in a second to help you out, to search for a lost kid in the wilderness? Or a lost fishing boat? All these good people are suddenly going to go zombie on Jan 1? Of course we all woke up Jan 1 and nothing happened. I always wondered what came of that guy. I never saw him again.
In any event, the world is just too depressing if you can't be optimistic about the future. I have kids and I teach kids. A lot of them are a lot smarter than we ever were. One can go back in time and pick just about any date and find reason to be optimistic or pessimistic. People had a lot more reason to be pessimistic in say 1939 or 1917 or 1862. Yet we came through all those times better and brighter than before. I have a hard time believing we are reaching the end of history due to problems with traditional energy use.
In any event, the efficient market theory would suggest all these things are already being properly valued based on these potential future scenarios. So I'm still happy with my index funds and asset allocation. I think it's a better argument for planning one's future life around these possible scenarios rather than one's portfolio. Chose a place to live that isn't likely to run out of water or bake into a desert wasteland in 25 years. Don't choose to live in a sprawling exurban setting where one must fight 10 miles of traffic to buy a loaf of bread. Find a profession that won't vanish if gas reaches $10/gallon. Etc. etc.
Alaska does tend to attract those types but I remember thinking. Who's going to be rioting? All these neighbors of yours who would drop anything their doing in a second to help you out, to search for a lost kid in the wilderness? Or a lost fishing boat? All these good people are suddenly going to go zombie on Jan 1? Of course we all woke up Jan 1 and nothing happened. I always wondered what came of that guy. I never saw him again.
In any event, the world is just too depressing if you can't be optimistic about the future. I have kids and I teach kids. A lot of them are a lot smarter than we ever were. One can go back in time and pick just about any date and find reason to be optimistic or pessimistic. People had a lot more reason to be pessimistic in say 1939 or 1917 or 1862. Yet we came through all those times better and brighter than before. I have a hard time believing we are reaching the end of history due to problems with traditional energy use.
In any event, the efficient market theory would suggest all these things are already being properly valued based on these potential future scenarios. So I'm still happy with my index funds and asset allocation. I think it's a better argument for planning one's future life around these possible scenarios rather than one's portfolio. Chose a place to live that isn't likely to run out of water or bake into a desert wasteland in 25 years. Don't choose to live in a sprawling exurban setting where one must fight 10 miles of traffic to buy a loaf of bread. Find a profession that won't vanish if gas reaches $10/gallon. Etc. etc.
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
There's 100+ years of nat gas. 200+ years of coal. 1000s of years of uranium and thorium. Seems like we have plenty of conventional energy resources, even if we can't get renewables to take up the slack for decades.
We waste a lot of food. Not just on ethanol, but on inefficient distribution, over-eating, and even meat production. If push comes to shove, it seems no one needs to starve, though some changes in what we drive and what we eat may be necessary.
Environmental damage does seem to be a real threat. We should take steps to avoid this. That said, lots of energy can to some extent get around some of the negatives. For example, we can make fresh water by several processes if we have energy. We can move inland to avoid rising seas. Not good news, but not Soylent Green either.
What does worry me: self-inflicted economic disasters, wars especially involving bio-weapons or nuclear weapons, etc.
We waste a lot of food. Not just on ethanol, but on inefficient distribution, over-eating, and even meat production. If push comes to shove, it seems no one needs to starve, though some changes in what we drive and what we eat may be necessary.
Environmental damage does seem to be a real threat. We should take steps to avoid this. That said, lots of energy can to some extent get around some of the negatives. For example, we can make fresh water by several processes if we have energy. We can move inland to avoid rising seas. Not good news, but not Soylent Green either.
What does worry me: self-inflicted economic disasters, wars especially involving bio-weapons or nuclear weapons, etc.
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Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
Have you checked his fallout shelter?texasdiver wrote:...guy had spent about 100 grand building a massive fallout shelter stocked with a year's supply of food and fuel and all manner of exotic arms. ... I always wondered what came of that guy. I never saw him again.
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Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
LOL! I needed a chuckle. Funny thread. It's hotter than fire where I am right now. [political comment removed by admin LadyGeek] Besides you can't grow corn on a scorched earth. Farmland has burned up. As well as, quite a few houses from wildfires.
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Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
I was listening to the Marc Levin show last night on the way home from work; last night's host was a lady from a radio station in some valley of California (can't remember the name of her town ). The and the callers-in were discussing something called Agenda21. Apparently the powers that be are strategizing to get everyone to move from the suburbs back to the cities (it will become too expensive to live in the burbs, so people will flee to the cities), where the powers that be will spread the wealth. Anyone ever hear anything about this? Is this the reason I'm reading some warnings on this site?
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Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
After reading this thread, I'm gonna go pop open a nice cold one, sit down, put my feet up and watch the Olympics!
Enough of the gloom and doom! Snap out of it, bogleheads!
BTW, GMO is advocating going long on timber, funny, I'm going short - having two more trees taken down in the next few weeks.
Enough of the gloom and doom! Snap out of it, bogleheads!
BTW, GMO is advocating going long on timber, funny, I'm going short - having two more trees taken down in the next few weeks.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
If I might be frank, if you hear a radio program that sounds like a conspiracy and it goes on about the "powers that be", then it likely is a conspiracy theory. There may be some underlying nuggets of truth (there is a UN non-binding, voluntary plan called Agenda 21 for sustainable development that's been around for two decades for example), but once you hear people trying to scare you, stop listening to them. Fear is a great way to get people to act irrationally and acting irrationally is rarely good for your wallet.Jane61 wrote:I was listening to the Marc Levin show last night on the way home from work; last night's host was a lady from a radio station in some valley of California (can't remember the name of her town ). The and the callers-in were discussing something called Agenda21. Apparently the powers that be are strategizing to get everyone to move from the suburbs back to the cities (it will become too expensive to live in the burbs, so people will flee to the cities), where the powers that be will spread the wealth. Anyone ever hear anything about this? Is this the reason I'm reading some warnings on this site?
Edit: By the way, was the guest Inga Barks? She's a central valley on-again/off-again conservative radio host whose audience does tend to like conspiracy theories like this.
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
Farms have gone up quite a bit from the last time you looked. There was a 160 acres around here that sold recently for $200/CSR point (camontgo wrote:I'm certainly not going to tilt my portfolio to overweight $8000 per acre Iowa farmland (or canned goods and ammo) based on his analysis.
CSR=Corn Suitability Rating). It had a CSR of 70, a good productive tract that will get 200 bushels of corn per acre, but certainly not a showcase farm. Purchased by a farmer who paid cash. No potential for residential or commercial development. If a farm has any prospects at being tilled, the minumum going price is $100 per CSR point. As an example, the most highly erodible ground with steep class D and E slopes that should be in CRP (Conservation Reserve Program, ie set aside program) might carry a CSR of 40. Such a farm will now sell for 4,000 to 5000 per acre.
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
In the mid 1980's my family considered 140 bushels per acre on corn to be a very good crop, and this was on good productive ground with a CSR averaging 70 and no irrigation required. Due to the advances in seed technology that same land now produces 180 bushels per acre in an average year and 200-220 in a great year. We have been very impressed with the drought and heat resistance of the hybrids this year. Despite a 90 percent reduction in rainfall during the most critical stages of pollination and merciless 100 degree days for weeks on end, these phenomenal hybrids would just not give up. We might actually see 120 bushels to the acre. These same conditions 25 years ago would have resulted in a complete crop failure.jeffyscott wrote:
Yes, clearly there must be no shortage in the US, given that we turn 40% of our corn crop into fuel. He is referring to a global food crisis and he does say "the main contributor to reducing the food imbalance between supply and demand is once again likely to be price: more of the poor will eat less and some, regrettably, will eat nothing". He basically seems to be saying that the impact on the wealthy countries would result from the destabilization of those that do have a food crisis.
I guess this summer's drought may give us a preview of what we may expect from a further rise in food prices.
Give the geniuses in agronomic sciences at Iowa State, Purdue, etc enough funding and you will feed the world. A generation ago an Iowan named Norman Borlaug saved hundreds of millions in Africa from starvation with his genius. Not everyone wants to use their intellectual gifts to get rich in meaningless investment banking shenanigans following a "Liar's Poker" how to manual. Never underestimate the power of the human mind when guided and inspired by compassion and a belief in a higher power.
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Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
Regarding "geniuses", Grantham does report what he calls "The one piece of hopeful news for food". Some sort of genetic engineering project that it is thought would increase the productivity of wheat and rice plants by up to 50%.
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
putting the photosynthesis gene from corn into wheat & rice. Its more efficient.
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Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
What are you going to do? Shoot starving people?ResNullius wrote:How about guns and ammo, if you buy his projections?
And all these 'guns and ammo' types never think the other guy will also have a gun. And what will all these guys do when their ammo factory has been out of business for a few years. Cartoon fantasies.
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
Well, stock up on re-loading equipment and gunpowder! Reloading is relatively easy.VennData wrote:ResNullius wrote: And all these 'guns and ammo' types never think the other guy will also have a gun. And what will all these guys do when their ammo factory has been out of business for a few years. Cartoon fantasies.
But your point is well taken. It will probably be a better move to cooperate with your neighbors rather than try to shoot them! (They might shoot back!)
Back when things were really tough (the Depression) armed gangs weren't roaming the countryside trying to take over farms.
pjstack
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Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
Exactly. In a complete societal and economic melt down the people who will do the best are those in self-sustaining communities. Like for example, the Amish. Where everyone in the community has different skills to bring to the table. It won't be the survivalist hiding out in his compound.pjstack wrote:Well, stock up on re-loading equipment and gunpowder! Reloading is relatively easy.VennData wrote:ResNullius wrote: And all these 'guns and ammo' types never think the other guy will also have a gun. And what will all these guys do when their ammo factory has been out of business for a few years. Cartoon fantasies.
But your point is well taken. It will probably be a better move to cooperate with your neighbors rather than try to shoot them! (They might shoot back!)
Back when things were really tough (the Depression) armed gangs weren't roaming the countryside trying to take over farms.
Re: The most depressing financial newsletter ever
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