U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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namajones
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by namajones »

Is there a "bond yields continue to soar" thread somewhere?

:wink:
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Stinky wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:56 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:20 am History may judge October 11 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Haven’t I heard that somewhere before?

Sounds familiar ……. :twisted:
Heh - maybe he was right.
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:13 pm
Stinky wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:56 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:20 am History may judge October 11 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Haven’t I heard that somewhere before?

Sounds familiar ……. :twisted:
Heh - maybe he was right.
This guy calls for a meltdown everyday without fail (parody). I think it might be a bot account.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Logan_JH1
drk
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by drk »

namajones wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:10 pm Is there a "bond yields continue to soar" thread somewhere?

:wink:
Two attempts in the last few years: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=340276 (Feb 2021) and viewtopic.php?t=294453 (2019). Of course, bonds are still off their 2021 lows and way off their 2018 lows.
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Yesterdaysnews
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

The market is no fun anymore…. Time to tune out for a few years….
H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 4:14 pm The market is no fun anymore…. Time to tune out for a few years….
if you need your fix seeing price keeps going up, maybe switch to gasoline price? see how much more you pay at the pump each week :mrgreen: it oughta be fun
Time is the ultimate currency. My ultimate wealth is the full control of how I spend my time.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

anoop wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:00 am with the bond market closed today, i predict it's going to be sideways today. there cannot possibly be notable movement in either direction without movement in the debt market.
If the bond market was closed today, why did my bond funds change in price? (Of course, they went down)

(Serious question)
It's a GREAT day to be alive! - Travis Tritt
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Stinky wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:30 pm
anoop wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:00 am with the bond market closed today, i predict it's going to be sideways today. there cannot possibly be notable movement in either direction without movement in the debt market.
If the bond market was closed today, why did my bond funds change in price? (Of course, they went down)

(Serious question)
Alas, I don't know. Are you sure it's not showing the change in price from Friday?
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:13 pm
Stinky wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:56 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:20 am History may judge October 11 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Haven’t I heard that somewhere before?

Sounds familiar ……. :twisted:
Heh - maybe he was right.
No worries. 4350 is the new 4400.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

anoop wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:42 pm
Stinky wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:30 pm
anoop wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:00 am with the bond market closed today, i predict it's going to be sideways today. there cannot possibly be notable movement in either direction without movement in the debt market.
If the bond market was closed today, why did my bond funds change in price? (Of course, they went down)

(Serious question)
Alas, I don't know. Are you sure it's not showing the change in price from Friday?
Just checked, and that’s not the answer.

One of my bond funds, VSCSX (Vanguard Short Corporates) closed at $22.38 on Friday 10/8. Tonight it’s showing a price of $22.35 on Vanguard website.
It's a GREAT day to be alive! - Travis Tritt
thenextguy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by thenextguy »

Stinky wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:57 pm
anoop wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:42 pm
Stinky wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:30 pm
anoop wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:00 am with the bond market closed today, i predict it's going to be sideways today. there cannot possibly be notable movement in either direction without movement in the debt market.
If the bond market was closed today, why did my bond funds change in price? (Of course, they went down)

(Serious question)
Alas, I don't know. Are you sure it's not showing the change in price from Friday?
Just checked, and that’s not the answer.

One of my bond funds, VSCSX (Vanguard Short Corporates) closed at $22.38 on Friday 10/8. Tonight it’s showing a price of $22.35 on Vanguard website.
Maybe it shows the results of after hours trading from Friday?
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

H-Town wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 5:03 pm
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 4:14 pm The market is no fun anymore…. Time to tune out for a few years….
if you need your fix seeing price keeps going up, maybe switch to gasoline price? see how much more you pay at the pump each week :mrgreen: it oughta be fun
Arizona approved online sports gambling starting Sept 9th... Who needs to watch the stock market anymore?

Ravens just covered my 3-leg parlay tonight... Woo-hoo!

Seriously though, it's funny how "the first taste is free"... They basically gave away $100 the first few weeks (they had two bets where if either team scored ONE point, you won the bet - max $50 bet.), but now they expect to hook us...

My wife cashed out her free $100... I'm still playing with house money... For how long I wonder? :)
Last edited by HomerJ on Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Nicolas
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas »

Stinky wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:30 pm
anoop wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:00 am with the bond market closed today, i predict it's going to be sideways today. there cannot possibly be notable movement in either direction without movement in the debt market.
If the bond market was closed today, why did my bond funds change in price? (Of course, they went down)

(Serious question)
Maybe they wrote off some bonds as worthless today. Or maybe there’s something in those funds that aren’t strictly bonds. Do those funds do securities lending? Check your prospectus. There could be a number of things that affect fund price absent the markets.
You never miss your water till your well runs dry.
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

tomorrow not looking good with apple's announcement.
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

So far future is only slightly negative.
drk
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by drk »

anoop wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:57 pm tomorrow not looking good with apple's announcement.
I think this news was pretty expected. Looks like AAPL is down 2% after hours.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

anoop wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:57 pm tomorrow not looking good with apple's announcement.
I missed it. Something regarding Apple announced?
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:50 pm
anoop wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:57 pm tomorrow not looking good with apple's announcement.
I missed it. Something regarding Apple announced?
The "news" is that chip shortages may impact iPhone production.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

CurlyDave wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 6:07 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:50 pm
anoop wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:57 pm tomorrow not looking good with apple's announcement.
I missed it. Something regarding Apple announced?
The "news" is that chip shortages may impact iPhone production.
Awesome...thank you :beer
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 6:22 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 6:07 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:50 pm
anoop wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:57 pm tomorrow not looking good with apple's announcement.
I missed it. Something regarding Apple announced?
The "news" is that chip shortages may impact iPhone production.
Awesome...thank you :beer
That's not too earth shattering given that there are chips in the iPhone.

And I just saw another article about the death of the 60/40 in Bloomberg today. These are fascinating.
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

are any of you guys high net worth?

any truth to this? (only 10-15 seconds, don't watch the rest)
https://youtu.be/GAoiPz7UZ7o?t=1126
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

anoop wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 6:34 pm are any of you guys high net worth?

any truth to this? (only 10-15 seconds, don't watch the rest)
https://youtu.be/GAoiPz7UZ7o?t=1126
1. Nobody knows nothing.

2. Many years ago a very large brokerage house got into big trouble by telling large investors to sell, while telling small ones to buy. Does anyone remember this? Who was the brokerage?
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
mikejuss
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mikejuss »

CurlyDave wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 6:42 pm
anoop wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 6:34 pm are any of you guys high net worth?

any truth to this? (only 10-15 seconds, don't watch the rest)
https://youtu.be/GAoiPz7UZ7o?t=1126
1. Nobody knows nothing.

2. Many years ago a very large brokerage house got into big trouble by telling large investors to sell, while telling small ones to buy. Does anyone remember this? Who was the brokerage?
Bear Stearns?
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

anoop wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 6:34 pm are any of you guys high net worth?

any truth to this? (only 10-15 seconds, don't watch the rest)
https://youtu.be/GAoiPz7UZ7o?t=1126
It sort of depends on where one is getting their investment advice. VIX is still above 2019 level and there's plenty of risk in the market. Some of the advices will be shorting the market as a hedge position. No advisor/bank will be dumb enough to tell the clients to take a 100% short position but they will tell them to move some of asset to short to cover for potential short term risk. It's not BH type advice but investors can listen to determine their own course of action depending on their risk tolerance.
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

CurlyDave wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 6:42 pm 2. Many years ago a very large brokerage house got into big trouble by telling large investors to sell, while telling small ones to buy. Does anyone remember this? Who was the brokerage?
Goldman did something like that. They were shorting the CDOs that they were selling to investors. Of course, from Goldman's point of view, they were just hedge against subprime on their book, but that's not how critics sees it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldman_S ... ent_(2010)
lazynovice
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lazynovice »

Stinky wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:57 pm
anoop wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:42 pm
Stinky wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:30 pm
anoop wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:00 am with the bond market closed today, i predict it's going to be sideways today. there cannot possibly be notable movement in either direction without movement in the debt market.
If the bond market was closed today, why did my bond funds change in price? (Of course, they went down)

(Serious question)
Alas, I don't know. Are you sure it's not showing the change in price from Friday?
Just checked, and that’s not the answer.

One of my bond funds, VSCSX (Vanguard Short Corporates) closed at $22.38 on Friday 10/8. Tonight it’s showing a price of $22.35 on Vanguard website.
I never figured it out either but the seemed to recover today.
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drk
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by drk »

Stinky wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:30 pm If the bond market was closed today, why did my bond funds change in price? (Of course, they went down)

(Serious question)
Presumably it's because of the need to meet fund redemptions despite the lack of liquidity. I'm sure alex_686 could tell us the real answer, though.
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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney »

drk wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:13 pm
Stinky wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:30 pm If the bond market was closed today, why did my bond funds change in price? (Of course, they went down)

(Serious question)
Presumably it's because of the need to meet fund redemptions despite the lack of liquidity. I'm sure alex_686 could tell us the real answer, though.
I was under the impression that there was no real "bond market" as in some central place where bonds were traded. There was just various finanancial firms, banks, brokerages, etc... and they all had bond dealers that sorta' created their own market(s), kind of like currency markets. Since the banks were closed/limited, perhaps it just means part of "the market" for bonds was closed, but that doesn't stop other entities from trading in them.
https://www.financialpipeline.com/trading-bonds/
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rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

I need some more soaring. If I use the 5.9% increase in social security as a measure of inflation for 2021, then any return above that is positive for me. That makes real returns look pretty sad this year compared to last year. I'm glad I reduced my bond exposure other than maxing out on I Bonds.

Come on. Let's soar some more tomorrow.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Tapering coming this year: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ma ... 002296.cms

They kind of have to, since they can't hike before they're done tapering.
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

rockstar wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:05 pm I need some more soaring. If I use the 5.9% increase in social security as a measure of inflation for 2021, then any return above that is positive for me. That makes real returns look pretty sad this year compared to last year. I'm glad I reduced my bond exposure other than maxing out on I Bonds.

Come on. Let's soar some more tomorrow.
Future is green but that probably means the session will end in red. :oops:
nzahir
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nzahir »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:10 pm Tapering coming this year: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ma ... 002296.cms

They kind of have to, since they can't hike before they're done tapering.
Why can't they start the taper this Nov or Dec (should end around half way in 2022) and do rate hikes in early 2022?
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

nzahir wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:49 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:10 pm Tapering coming this year: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ma ... 002296.cms

They kind of have to, since they can't hike before they're done tapering.
Why can't they start the taper this Nov or Dec (should end around half way in 2022) and do rate hikes in early 2022?
I am not sure if there are technical reasons why they can't. I would certainly love to see tapering and hiking at the same time, but the markets probably won't like that.
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whodidntante
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante »

anoop wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:17 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:13 pm
Stinky wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:56 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:20 am History may judge October 11 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Haven’t I heard that somewhere before?

Sounds familiar ……. :twisted:
Heh - maybe he was right.
This guy calls for a meltdown everyday without fail (parody). I think it might be a bot account.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Logan_JH1
I dig the handle.
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

jarjarM wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:38 pm
rockstar wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:05 pm I need some more soaring. If I use the 5.9% increase in social security as a measure of inflation for 2021, then any return above that is positive for me. That makes real returns look pretty sad this year compared to last year. I'm glad I reduced my bond exposure other than maxing out on I Bonds.

Come on. Let's soar some more tomorrow.
Future is green but that probably means the session will end in red. :oops:
Futures are horrible indicators. All it takes is one Fed president interview and the whole market buckles. The day to day is pretty nuts.
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

anoop wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:17 pm This guy calls for a meltdown everyday without fail (parody). I think it might be a bot account.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Logan_JH1
That dude is having waaaaaaaaaay too much fun for that to be a bot account. I'm having fun watching him have fun. What a fantastic use of Twitter.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Beensabu wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:10 pm
anoop wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:17 pm This guy calls for a meltdown everyday without fail (parody). I think it might be a bot account.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Logan_JH1
That dude is having waaaaaaaaaay too much fun for that to be a bot account. I'm having fun watching him have fun. What a fantastic use of Twitter.
I'm following that account for the entertainment. :beer
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

rockstar wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:02 pm Futures are horrible indicators. All it takes is one Fed president interview and the whole market buckles. The day to day is pretty nuts.
They're not indicators...futures are trading instruments of their own. They aren't predicting how the regular session would perform tomorrow (they would certainly influence the premarket trading).
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by grabiner »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:27 am
rockstar wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:02 pm Futures are horrible indicators. All it takes is one Fed president interview and the whole market buckles. The day to day is pretty nuts.
They're not indicators...futures are trading instruments of their own. They aren't predicting how the regular session would perform tomorrow (they would certainly influence the premarket trading).
But they are the best indicators we have of how the market will open. If S&P futures are trading at 3000 at midnight, then traders expect the S&P to open tomorrow at 3000, whether it closed today at 2900 or 3100. (Presumably, this large change reflects some news that happened in the evening, such as a market boom in Japan or a natural disaster.) The expected value may be off because of news that happens before the morning opening, but it's just as likely to be off in either direction.
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anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

grabiner wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:49 am But they are the best indicators we have of how the market will open. If S&P futures are trading at 3000 at midnight, then traders expect the S&P to open tomorrow at 3000, whether it closed today at 2900 or 3100. (Presumably, this large change reflects some news that happened in the evening, such as a market boom in Japan or a natural disaster.) The expected value may be off because of news that happens before the morning opening, but it's just as likely to be off in either direction.
Money never sleeps is the bottom line. International markets, futures, premarket trading etc etc are all happening before the S&P500 regular session open.
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

rockstar wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:05 pm I need some more soaring.

...

Come on. Let's soar some more tomorrow.
You're selling shares tomorrow?
VBIAX and chill (in taxable)
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Futures are a pleasant shade of green this morning. :moneybag
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CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Stinky wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 6:22 am Futures are a pleasant shade of green this morning. :moneybag
Not only futures. Mr. Market likes something.

We are well off ATHs, but hope springs eternal in the Curly Family Portfolio.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

Banks are showing strong earnings. If earnings continue to outperform, perhaps the market is not trading at too high of a valuation when you look forward to 2022
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

CurlyDave wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:57 am
Stinky wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 6:22 am Futures are a pleasant shade of green this morning. :moneybag
Not only futures. Mr. Market likes something.

We are well off ATHs, but hope springs eternal in the Curly Family Portfolio.
S&P is at 97% of ATH, Nasdaq at 96%.

Back when I was in school, those kinds of grades were "A". If not "A+". :D
It's a GREAT day to be alive! - Travis Tritt
Keenobserver
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

I have this crazy strategy of doing nothing cause I know nothin...as a matter of fact no one does..working.fine for me
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Please no taper down today.
Vtsax100
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Vtsax100 »

I told you all the soaring will continue past November when my bonus comes. No way Im going to be able to pick up a truck load of VTSAX on sale!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Candor »

Remember folks there is nothing to worry about. We have an amazingly prescient personal guarantee the S&P top of 4800 won't be reached until November. The soaring is just getting warmed up!
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Epicurus
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