U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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lazynovice
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lazynovice »

Marseille07 wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:19 pm
lazynovice wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:24 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 10:25 am
anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:00 am Mostly in cash since early 2008, so a little over 13 years. I don’t have a budget, but I do save a lot.

The 25% was referring to the 401k. Someone else clarified that when we were discussing last time. My outside 401k grew a bit because of bonus/RSU earlier in the year.

Wiki would be all good if I could get the central bank manipulation out of my head.
The whole notion of Bogleheads is to ignore the news and stay invested. The central bank may be manipulating, maybe not. It doesn't matter.
My take is a little different in that Bogleheads assume an efficient market and Central Bank manipulation works against that. But if the Central Bank is manipulating it is doing so to keep the market functioning for your protection, so it should be considered an advantage. Some of their actions will make you money and some will lose you money. We saw that from 2008-2015.
So...what would you advise the poster above who is running a 10/90(cash) portfolio and said they can't get the central bank manipulation out of their head? Not saying 10/90 is wrong but it's quite diverged from a recommend set of AA selections.
I do not believe the Fed will let the stock market or the bond market crash. They do appear to be fine with letting returns on cash fall to near zero. I would not be in cash.

If you have so much cash, that you don’t care if inflation hits, then stay in cash. Otherwise invest you must.
“I didn’t want my sailboat to be in the driveway when I died.” Nomadland
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

lazynovice wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:24 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:19 pm
lazynovice wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:24 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 10:25 am
anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:00 am Mostly in cash since early 2008, so a little over 13 years. I don’t have a budget, but I do save a lot.

The 25% was referring to the 401k. Someone else clarified that when we were discussing last time. My outside 401k grew a bit because of bonus/RSU earlier in the year.

Wiki would be all good if I could get the central bank manipulation out of my head.
The whole notion of Bogleheads is to ignore the news and stay invested. The central bank may be manipulating, maybe not. It doesn't matter.
My take is a little different in that Bogleheads assume an efficient market and Central Bank manipulation works against that. But if the Central Bank is manipulating it is doing so to keep the market functioning for your protection, so it should be considered an advantage. Some of their actions will make you money and some will lose you money. We saw that from 2008-2015.
So...what would you advise the poster above who is running a 10/90(cash) portfolio and said they can't get the central bank manipulation out of their head? Not saying 10/90 is wrong but it's quite diverged from a recommend set of AA selections.
I do not believe the Fed will let the stock market or the bond market crash. They do appear to be fine with letting returns on cash fall to near zero. I would not be in cash.

If you have so much cash, that you don’t care if inflation hits, then stay in cash. Otherwise invest you must.
I think the sad part is that what has happened to corporations is now coming to individuals.

Just like leverage has been the name of the game for the business world and you can't remain in business without leverage (either you go out of business or get bought by some other business engaging in leverage), the same is happening with individual investors. If you don't trade options, you will fall behind inflation despite the market going up. At least that's what I think is going on.
lazynovice
Posts: 1870
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lazynovice »

anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:53 pm
lazynovice wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:24 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:19 pm
lazynovice wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:24 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 10:25 am

The whole notion of Bogleheads is to ignore the news and stay invested. The central bank may be manipulating, maybe not. It doesn't matter.
My take is a little different in that Bogleheads assume an efficient market and Central Bank manipulation works against that. But if the Central Bank is manipulating it is doing so to keep the market functioning for your protection, so it should be considered an advantage. Some of their actions will make you money and some will lose you money. We saw that from 2008-2015.
So...what would you advise the poster above who is running a 10/90(cash) portfolio and said they can't get the central bank manipulation out of their head? Not saying 10/90 is wrong but it's quite diverged from a recommend set of AA selections.
I do not believe the Fed will let the stock market or the bond market crash. They do appear to be fine with letting returns on cash fall to near zero. I would not be in cash.

If you have so much cash, that you don’t care if inflation hits, then stay in cash. Otherwise invest you must.
I think the sad part is that what has happened to corporations is now coming to individuals.

Just like leverage has been the name of the game for the business world and you can't remain in business without leverage (either you go out of business or get bought by some other business engaging in leverage), the same is happening with individual investors. If you don't trade options, you will fall behind inflation despite the market going up. At least that's what I think is going on.
Which investors? I don’t trade in options. I am not falling behind inflation. I have no leverage. Not even a mortgage. I may not be beating people with leverage or options but I have more than enough.
“I didn’t want my sailboat to be in the driveway when I died.” Nomadland
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

lazynovice wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:58 pm
anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:53 pm
lazynovice wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:24 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:19 pm
lazynovice wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:24 pm

My take is a little different in that Bogleheads assume an efficient market and Central Bank manipulation works against that. But if the Central Bank is manipulating it is doing so to keep the market functioning for your protection, so it should be considered an advantage. Some of their actions will make you money and some will lose you money. We saw that from 2008-2015.
So...what would you advise the poster above who is running a 10/90(cash) portfolio and said they can't get the central bank manipulation out of their head? Not saying 10/90 is wrong but it's quite diverged from a recommend set of AA selections.
I do not believe the Fed will let the stock market or the bond market crash. They do appear to be fine with letting returns on cash fall to near zero. I would not be in cash.

If you have so much cash, that you don’t care if inflation hits, then stay in cash. Otherwise invest you must.
I think the sad part is that what has happened to corporations is now coming to individuals.

Just like leverage has been the name of the game for the business world and you can't remain in business without leverage (either you go out of business or get bought by some other business engaging in leverage), the same is happening with individual investors. If you don't trade options, you will fall behind inflation despite the market going up. At least that's what I think is going on.
Which investors? I don’t trade in options. I am not falling behind inflation. I have no leverage. Not even a mortgage. I may not be beating people with leverage or options but I have more than enough.
I think that's what happens in the next 10 years. Market will keep going up but not enough to keep up with inflation.
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Godot
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Godot »

anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:53 pm


If you don't trade options, you will fall behind inflation despite the market going up. At least that's what I think is going on.
What are you talking about?
"If by Godot I had meant God I would have said God, and not Godot." | ― Samuel Beckett
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:00 pm I think that's what happens in the next 10 years. Market will keep going up but not enough to keep up with inflation.
This doesn't make sense. If option buyers are winning, 1x underlying is also winning. Plus, the option *sellers* are losing.
Options do not increase the winners.

As far as inflation, it's possible equities might not keep up with inflation. However, in that case it's unlikely bonds / cash would, either.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:00 pm
lazynovice wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:58 pm
anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:53 pm
lazynovice wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:24 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:19 pm

So...what would you advise the poster above who is running a 10/90(cash) portfolio and said they can't get the central bank manipulation out of their head? Not saying 10/90 is wrong but it's quite diverged from a recommend set of AA selections.
I do not believe the Fed will let the stock market or the bond market crash. They do appear to be fine with letting returns on cash fall to near zero. I would not be in cash.

If you have so much cash, that you don’t care if inflation hits, then stay in cash. Otherwise invest you must.
I think the sad part is that what has happened to corporations is now coming to individuals.

Just like leverage has been the name of the game for the business world and you can't remain in business without leverage (either you go out of business or get bought by some other business engaging in leverage), the same is happening with individual investors. If you don't trade options, you will fall behind inflation despite the market going up. At least that's what I think is going on.
Which investors? I don’t trade in options. I am not falling behind inflation. I have no leverage. Not even a mortgage. I may not be beating people with leverage or options but I have more than enough.
I think that's what happens in the next 10 years. Market will keep going up but not enough to keep up with inflation.
You were completely wrong about the last 10 years, so don't get mad if I ignore this new prediction.

Also, you should recognize by now that you (and the rest of us) are not good at predicting the future, so maybe you should stop making market moves based on weak predictions.

And anyway, if you DO believe your own prediction and you think inflation is going through the roof, why are you 90% in cash?
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

HomerJ wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:24 pm
anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:00 pm
lazynovice wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:58 pm
anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:53 pm
lazynovice wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:24 pm

I do not believe the Fed will let the stock market or the bond market crash. They do appear to be fine with letting returns on cash fall to near zero. I would not be in cash.

If you have so much cash, that you don’t care if inflation hits, then stay in cash. Otherwise invest you must.
I think the sad part is that what has happened to corporations is now coming to individuals.

Just like leverage has been the name of the game for the business world and you can't remain in business without leverage (either you go out of business or get bought by some other business engaging in leverage), the same is happening with individual investors. If you don't trade options, you will fall behind inflation despite the market going up. At least that's what I think is going on.
Which investors? I don’t trade in options. I am not falling behind inflation. I have no leverage. Not even a mortgage. I may not be beating people with leverage or options but I have more than enough.
I think that's what happens in the next 10 years. Market will keep going up but not enough to keep up with inflation.
You were completely wrong about the last 10 years, so don't get mad if I ignore this new prediction.

Also, you should recognize by now that you (and the rest of us) are not good at predicting the future, so maybe you should stop making market moves based on weak predictions.

And anyway, if you DO believe your own prediction and you think inflation is going through the roof, why are you 90% in cash?
Talking 401k only --

I was going to go from 0 to 100% but I got all kinds of advice here on how that ends badly. And so I went with 25%. Market is up 10% since then.
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

This is fed strategy for dealing with inflation - a 4 stage strategy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:33 pm Talking 401k only --

I was going to go from 0 to 100% but I got all kinds of advice here on how that ends badly. And so I went with 25%. Market is up 10% since then.
Not sure who said it'll end badly. Every lump sum vs DCA thread I've seen, the LS camp is more vocal.
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Marseille07 wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:36 pm
anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:33 pm Talking 401k only --

I was going to go from 0 to 100% but I got all kinds of advice here on how that ends badly. And so I went with 25%. Market is up 10% since then.
Not sure who said it'll end badly. Every lump sum vs DCA thread I've seen, the LS camp is more vocal.
I think they were concerned I was trying to time the market, getting in at an all time high and exit at the first sign of a drop. So the advice was to pick an asset allocation I would be comfortable with regardless of how big a correction we might see. Which is the boglehead way. But IMO it doesn’t account for the manipulated market we are in.

Something to think about —

Why is private equity bidding and paying over market for houses when prices are at an all time high (nominal terms), acting as though the market is at a bottom?
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:47 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:36 pm
anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:33 pm Talking 401k only --

I was going to go from 0 to 100% but I got all kinds of advice here on how that ends badly. And so I went with 25%. Market is up 10% since then.
Not sure who said it'll end badly. Every lump sum vs DCA thread I've seen, the LS camp is more vocal.
I think they were concerned I was trying to time the market, getting in at an all time high and exit at the first sign of a drop. So the advice was to pick an asset allocation I would be comfortable with regardless of how big a correction we might see. Which is the boglehead way. But IMO it doesn’t account for the manipulated market we are in.

Something to think about —

Why is private equity bidding and paying over market for houses when prices are at an all time high (nominal terms), acting as though the market is at a bottom?
? Nobody is acting as though the market is at a bottom. Everyone knows the P/E is quite high right now (though I think P/E on its own is misleading).

Now, if you are comfortable with 10/90 then let's not go any further. It doesn't make sense for you to go more aggressive then panic sell later.
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Marseille07 wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:53 pm
anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:47 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:36 pm
anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:33 pm Talking 401k only --

I was going to go from 0 to 100% but I got all kinds of advice here on how that ends badly. And so I went with 25%. Market is up 10% since then.
Not sure who said it'll end badly. Every lump sum vs DCA thread I've seen, the LS camp is more vocal.
I think they were concerned I was trying to time the market, getting in at an all time high and exit at the first sign of a drop. So the advice was to pick an asset allocation I would be comfortable with regardless of how big a correction we might see. Which is the boglehead way. But IMO it doesn’t account for the manipulated market we are in.

Something to think about —

Why is private equity bidding and paying over market for houses when prices are at an all time high (nominal terms), acting as though the market is at a bottom?
? Nobody is acting as though the market is at a bottom. Everyone knows the P/E is quite high right now (though I think P/E on its own is misleading).

Now, if you are comfortable with 10/90 then let's not go any further. It doesn't make sense for you to go more aggressive then panic sell later.
I was talking about the way private equity is behaving with respect to housing. The last time they behaved this way was when housing was at bottom when they were scooping up short sales and REOs for all cash offers.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 5:15 pm I was talking about the way private equity is behaving with respect to housing. The last time they behaved this way was when housing was at bottom when they were scooping up short sales and REOs for all cash offers.
I'm not following how those factors come into your investing. If you want to find reasons not to invest, you can always find something.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:33 pm
HomerJ wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:24 pm
anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:00 pm
lazynovice wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:58 pm
anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:53 pm

I think the sad part is that what has happened to corporations is now coming to individuals.

Just like leverage has been the name of the game for the business world and you can't remain in business without leverage (either you go out of business or get bought by some other business engaging in leverage), the same is happening with individual investors. If you don't trade options, you will fall behind inflation despite the market going up. At least that's what I think is going on.
Which investors? I don’t trade in options. I am not falling behind inflation. I have no leverage. Not even a mortgage. I may not be beating people with leverage or options but I have more than enough.
I think that's what happens in the next 10 years. Market will keep going up but not enough to keep up with inflation.
You were completely wrong about the last 10 years, so don't get mad if I ignore this new prediction.

Also, you should recognize by now that you (and the rest of us) are not good at predicting the future, so maybe you should stop making market moves based on weak predictions.

And anyway, if you DO believe your own prediction and you think inflation is going through the roof, why are you 90% in cash?
Talking 401k only --

I was going to go from 0 to 100% but I got all kinds of advice here on how that ends badly. And so I went with 25%. Market is up 10% since then.
Well, I thought you were talking about 100% of your entire portfolio.

Just go 50/50 and be done with it. Invest for the long-run. Stop changing it and second-guessing yourself. Best decision I ever made.

I'm ALWAYS right... If stocks go up, I'm smart because I have 50% in stocks. If stocks go down, I'm smart because I have 50% in bonds.

50/50 means you're not taking a position and guessing which way stocks are going to go.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
rchmx1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

All of the sudden futures inexplicable exceptionally green. EMT in action. :confused
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

rchmx1 wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 3:01 am All of the sudden futures inexplicable exceptionally green. EMT in action. :confused
Yes, I’m seeing that too.

Wonder what happened?
It's a GREAT day to be alive! - Travis Tritt
Blue456
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Blue456 »

So what happened? We no longer worry about inflation?
z3r0c00l
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

Blue456 wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 6:09 am So what happened? We no longer worry about inflation?
Lumber is dropping fast.
100% Global Stocks / Ibond Emergency Fund
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Wow. Was I wrong last night.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

lostdog wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:29 am Wow. Was I wrong last night.
Yes. Once again the “futures indicator” has failed us. :twisted:
It's a GREAT day to be alive! - Travis Tritt
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Stinky wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:54 am
lostdog wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:29 am Wow. Was I wrong last night.
Yes. Once again the “futures indicator” has failed us. :twisted:
:sharebeer
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Stinky wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:54 am
lostdog wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:29 am Wow. Was I wrong last night.
Yes. Once again the “futures indicator” has failed us. :twisted:
Futures are instruments on their own. They aren't indicators. People putting real money into them and trying to make money.
As I called last night, SPX futures were down because of Asia (Nikkei went -3%) because they were following our Friday's session (-1.33%).

The trend has to stop somewhere and it did, by US premarket.
Nathan Drake
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

HomerJ wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:47 pm
anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:33 pm
HomerJ wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:24 pm
anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:00 pm
lazynovice wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:58 pm

Which investors? I don’t trade in options. I am not falling behind inflation. I have no leverage. Not even a mortgage. I may not be beating people with leverage or options but I have more than enough.
I think that's what happens in the next 10 years. Market will keep going up but not enough to keep up with inflation.
You were completely wrong about the last 10 years, so don't get mad if I ignore this new prediction.

Also, you should recognize by now that you (and the rest of us) are not good at predicting the future, so maybe you should stop making market moves based on weak predictions.

And anyway, if you DO believe your own prediction and you think inflation is going through the roof, why are you 90% in cash?
Talking 401k only --

I was going to go from 0 to 100% but I got all kinds of advice here on how that ends badly. And so I went with 25%. Market is up 10% since then.
Well, I thought you were talking about 100% of your entire portfolio.

Just go 50/50 and be done with it. Invest for the long-run. Stop changing it and second-guessing yourself. Best decision I ever made.

I'm ALWAYS right... If stocks go up, I'm smart because I have 50% in stocks. If stocks go down, I'm smart because I have 50% in bonds.

50/50 means you're not taking a position and guessing which way stocks are going to go.
Stocks and bonds can also move down over long periods of time

A 50/50 Portfolio of US stocks and bonds may both feature highly negative real rates of return over a decade or more
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 10:13 am
HomerJ wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:47 pm
anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:33 pm
HomerJ wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:24 pm
anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:00 pm
I think that's what happens in the next 10 years. Market will keep going up but not enough to keep up with inflation.
You were completely wrong about the last 10 years, so don't get mad if I ignore this new prediction.

Also, you should recognize by now that you (and the rest of us) are not good at predicting the future, so maybe you should stop making market moves based on weak predictions.

And anyway, if you DO believe your own prediction and you think inflation is going through the roof, why are you 90% in cash?
Talking 401k only --

I was going to go from 0 to 100% but I got all kinds of advice here on how that ends badly. And so I went with 25%. Market is up 10% since then.
Well, I thought you were talking about 100% of your entire portfolio.

Just go 50/50 and be done with it. Invest for the long-run. Stop changing it and second-guessing yourself. Best decision I ever made.

I'm ALWAYS right... If stocks go up, I'm smart because I have 50% in stocks. If stocks go down, I'm smart because I have 50% in bonds.

50/50 means you're not taking a position and guessing which way stocks are going to go.
Stocks and bonds can also move down over long periods of time

A 50/50 Portfolio of US stocks and bonds may both feature highly negative real rates of return over a decade or more
Well, yeah if inflation goes through the roof... (but there are inflation-protected bonds now too).

Otherwise intermediate-term bonds will not feature highly negative real rates of returns over a decade or more.

If we hit a bad decade (always possible), I'll be very happy I have the 50% in bonds, which was my point. I didn't say bond funds always gain money, I'm saying if stocks are in a bull market, they make enough to make me happy, and if the stocks are a decade long bear market, I'll be happy I have the bonds (which may also be down, but they won't be anywhere near as much down as stocks can be).

But yes, a 50/50 portfolio can lose money over a decade. So can a 10/90 stocks/cash portfolio. Especially if we're talking about inflation.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
dogagility
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility »

anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:53 pm Just like leverage has been the name of the game for the business world and you can't remain in business without leverage (either you go out of business or get bought by some other business engaging in leverage), the same is happening with individual investors. If you don't trade options, you will fall behind inflation despite the market going up. At least that's what I think is going on.
Of course just my opinion but... you read too much financial porn for your own good, Anoop.
The more flexibility you have the less you need to know what happens next. -- Morgan Housel
dogagility
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility »

anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:41 pm This is fed strategy for dealing with inflation - a 4 stage strategy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak
Riiiigggghhhttt... :shock: :oops: :twisted:
The more flexibility you have the less you need to know what happens next. -- Morgan Housel
Nathan Drake
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:21 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 10:13 am
HomerJ wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:47 pm
anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:33 pm
HomerJ wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:24 pm

You were completely wrong about the last 10 years, so don't get mad if I ignore this new prediction.

Also, you should recognize by now that you (and the rest of us) are not good at predicting the future, so maybe you should stop making market moves based on weak predictions.

And anyway, if you DO believe your own prediction and you think inflation is going through the roof, why are you 90% in cash?
Talking 401k only --

I was going to go from 0 to 100% but I got all kinds of advice here on how that ends badly. And so I went with 25%. Market is up 10% since then.
Well, I thought you were talking about 100% of your entire portfolio.

Just go 50/50 and be done with it. Invest for the long-run. Stop changing it and second-guessing yourself. Best decision I ever made.

I'm ALWAYS right... If stocks go up, I'm smart because I have 50% in stocks. If stocks go down, I'm smart because I have 50% in bonds.

50/50 means you're not taking a position and guessing which way stocks are going to go.
Stocks and bonds can also move down over long periods of time

A 50/50 Portfolio of US stocks and bonds may both feature highly negative real rates of return over a decade or more
Well, yeah if inflation goes through the roof... (but there are inflation-protected bonds now too).

Otherwise intermediate-term bonds will not feature highly negative real rates of returns over a decade or more.

If we hit a bad decade (always possible), I'll be very happy I have the 50% in bonds, which was my point. I didn't say bond funds always gain money, I'm saying if stocks are in a bull market, they make enough to make me happy, and if the stocks are a decade long bear market, I'll be happy I have the bonds (which may also be down, but they won't be anywhere near as much down as stocks can be).

But yes, a 50/50 portfolio can lose money over a decade. So can a 10/90 stocks/cash portfolio. Especially if we're talking about inflation.
I simply think the risk of both happening is very high right now for a US heavy investor. Unlike the early 00s, yields have nowhere to go down so they won’t provide as much protection on the upside of equities crashing. The SORR scenarios look a lot worse where we are at today

An investor that’s more balanced in terms of diversification across equities will not have as much risk in my view
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:50 am
HomerJ wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:21 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 10:13 am
HomerJ wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:47 pm
anoop wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:33 pm
Talking 401k only --

I was going to go from 0 to 100% but I got all kinds of advice here on how that ends badly. And so I went with 25%. Market is up 10% since then.
Well, I thought you were talking about 100% of your entire portfolio.

Just go 50/50 and be done with it. Invest for the long-run. Stop changing it and second-guessing yourself. Best decision I ever made.

I'm ALWAYS right... If stocks go up, I'm smart because I have 50% in stocks. If stocks go down, I'm smart because I have 50% in bonds.

50/50 means you're not taking a position and guessing which way stocks are going to go.
Stocks and bonds can also move down over long periods of time

A 50/50 Portfolio of US stocks and bonds may both feature highly negative real rates of return over a decade or more
Well, yeah if inflation goes through the roof... (but there are inflation-protected bonds now too).

Otherwise intermediate-term bonds will not feature highly negative real rates of returns over a decade or more.

If we hit a bad decade (always possible), I'll be very happy I have the 50% in bonds, which was my point. I didn't say bond funds always gain money, I'm saying if stocks are in a bull market, they make enough to make me happy, and if the stocks are a decade long bear market, I'll be happy I have the bonds (which may also be down, but they won't be anywhere near as much down as stocks can be).

But yes, a 50/50 portfolio can lose money over a decade. So can a 10/90 stocks/cash portfolio. Especially if we're talking about inflation.
I simply think the risk of both happening is very high right now for a US heavy investor. Unlike the early 00s, yields have nowhere to go down so they won’t provide as much protection on the upside of equities crashing. The SORR scenarios look a lot worse where we are at today

An investor that’s more balanced in terms of diversification across equities will not have as much risk in my view
VT(WAX) and chill. :beer
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

OK back to soaring. Heading to the gym. Are we looking at a melt up at the end?
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

lostdog wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:59 am OK back to soaring. Heading to the gym. Are we looking at a melt up at the end?
Just the thought of you going to the gym has caused a lot of soaring this morning. Are you going to pump the iron or just treadmill it? We need the iron for a real melt up.

NASDAQ is trailing today -- totally out of character. Have you noticed any NASDAQ-specific workout routines?
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Ajcorpus
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Ajcorpus »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:08 pm
lostdog wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:59 am OK back to soaring. Heading to the gym. Are we looking at a melt up at the end?
Just the thought of you going to the gym has caused a lot of soaring this morning. Are you going to pump the iron or just treadmill it? We need the iron for a real melt up.

NASDAQ is trailing today -- totally out of character. Have you noticed any NASDAQ-specific workout routines?
I had to laugh at that comment ! NASDAQ-specific routines lol ! That must be a tech heavy routine...
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:08 pm
lostdog wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:59 am OK back to soaring. Heading to the gym. Are we looking at a melt up at the end?
Just the thought of you going to the gym has caused a lot of soaring this morning. Are you going to pump the iron or just treadmill it? We need the iron for a real melt up.

NASDAQ is trailing today -- totally out of character. Have you noticed any NASDAQ-specific workout routines?
:greedy :confused :sharebeer :oops: :-D
Keenobserver
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

So glad you guys convinced me to put majority of my investments in a simple index fund. Daily market monkey business is no longer getting nearly as much attention as it used to. I would like to keep it that way.
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:08 pm
lostdog wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:59 am OK back to soaring. Heading to the gym. Are we looking at a melt up at the end?
Just the thought of you going to the gym has caused a lot of soaring this morning. Are you going to pump the iron or just treadmill it? We need the iron for a real melt up.

NASDAQ is trailing today -- totally out of character. Have you noticed any NASDAQ-specific workout routines?
Pumped iron and then elliptical. I saw the Nasdaq was trailing. I gave it my hardest.
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

lostdog wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 2:40 pm
...Pumped iron and then elliptical. I saw the Nasdaq was trailing. I gave it my hardest.
You gave it your best. If there is going to be a melt up, now is the time.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Pointing up with 4 minutes to go.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
dru808
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dru808 »

Killin it :sharebeer :moneybag
sptm | vigi | xbt/eth
mr_brightside
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mr_brightside »

nice day after all the red of last week

-----------------------------------
Kookaburra
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Kookaburra »

It’s days like today why I’m much happier to be in equities than in Dog Money!
RetiredAL
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by RetiredAL »

Broken Man 1999 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 5:34 pm
RetiredAL wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 5:20 pm
Broken Man 1999 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:35 pm Oh no, I am down $10,000 today, the sky is falling!!

Broken Man 1999
Oh dear, DW and I are down $8K today. But ytd, we are up $110K after withdrawals, so I am still happy!

So do we laugh together at poor chicken little?
I think we might be having chicken tonight!

Your point is exactly how I feel about things. The market isn't a sprint, but a decades-long marathon. But, even the short run YTD has been excellent. No complaints here, none.

Broken Man 1999
Pole vault day!
lazynovice
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lazynovice »

Kookaburra wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 5:58 pm It’s days like today why I’m much happier to be in equities than in Dog Money!
This took me a second until I got it and laughed out loud.
“I didn’t want my sailboat to be in the driveway when I died.” Nomadland
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

lazynovice wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:05 pm
Kookaburra wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 5:58 pm It’s days like today why I’m much happier to be in equities than in Dog Money!
This took me a second until I got it and laughed out loud.
It only took you a second? I took a lot longer and still don't get it! Is it a dyslexic reference to gold, which is sometimes called "God's Money"?
"Picking an AA and sticking with it will get you much better off than any strategy that relies on pontificating on the market." -- our favorite golfer
lazynovice
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lazynovice »

Robot Monster wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 8:26 am
lazynovice wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:05 pm
Kookaburra wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 5:58 pm It’s days like today why I’m much happier to be in equities than in Dog Money!
This took me a second until I got it and laughed out loud.
It only took you a second? I took a lot longer and still don't get it! Is it a dyslexic reference to gold, which is sometimes called "God's Money"?
I don’t want to get the thread locked. I believe it is a reference to dogecoin.
“I didn’t want my sailboat to be in the driveway when I died.” Nomadland
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

A much better morning for fans of QQQ and the 'DAQ.

Starting to soar a little, while the S&P is diving.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

CurlyDave wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 8:39 am A much better morning for fans of QQQ and the 'DAQ.

Starting to soar a little, while the S&P is diving.
It’s just a nice, placid day. S&P and Nasdaq up a little, hovering near record highs.

All is well with the world.
It's a GREAT day to be alive! - Travis Tritt
nigel_ht
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nigel_ht »

Stinky wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:23 am
CurlyDave wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 8:39 am A much better morning for fans of QQQ and the 'DAQ.

Starting to soar a little, while the S&P is diving.
It’s just a nice, placid day. S&P and Nasdaq up a little, hovering near record highs.

All is well with the world.
Hmmm...I'm debating whether this is deliberate attempt to generate a buy the dip opportunity (which would naturally fail) or an honest tempting of fate (which will naturally case the market to crater)...
livesoft
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by livesoft »

nigel_ht wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:54 am Hmmm...I'm debating whether this is deliberate attempt to generate a buy the dip opportunity (which would naturally fail) or an honest tempting of fate (which will naturally case the market to crater)...
The dip was last Friday in small-cap [value]. It was over yesterday afternoon after the 3% gain.
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Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Really strange markets. Traders freaked out after FOMC and now buying up as if nothing happened... :shock:
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:15 am Really strange markets. Traders freaked out after FOMC and now buying up as if nothing happened... :shock:
Last Friday I wrote, "How often have we seen the market get scared by something, rethink things, and then once again march higher?" link

Not saying I predicted this would happen, just not surprised it did.
"Picking an AA and sticking with it will get you much better off than any strategy that relies on pontificating on the market." -- our favorite golfer
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