U.S. stocks in free fall

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Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

I'm liking my 20% bond allocation today. Nice to see it not falling at the same time equities do, even if for just a day.
thoughtware
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thoughtware »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 11:55 am I'm liking my 20% bond allocation today. Nice to see it not falling at the same time equities do, even if for just a day.
VGLT, as much as its been thrashed on this forum lately, it sure looks sweet today.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid »

It is interesting to see the "Soar" and the "Free Fall" threads at the top of the Bogleheads forum today, number one and number two. NAZZ is up and most everything else down, particularly Small-Cap.
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Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

thoughtware wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 12:01 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 11:55 am I'm liking my 20% bond allocation today. Nice to see it not falling at the same time equities do, even if for just a day.
VGLT, as much as its been thrashed on this forum lately, it sure looks sweet today.

:sharebeer
Ignore the noise. No reason not to hold that fund if your goal is long term and you want a ballast for equity declines.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

nedsaid wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 12:05 pm It is interesting to see the "Soar" and the "Free Fall" threads at the top of the Bogleheads forum today, number one and number two. NAZZ is up and most everything else down, particularly Small-Cap.
Wow, according to Morningstar at this moment, large growth is up 1.51% and small value down 3.10% today. Wonder what the biggest single day difference is among the highest and lowest performing sector.
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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 12:07 pm
nedsaid wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 12:05 pm It is interesting to see the "Soar" and the "Free Fall" threads at the top of the Bogleheads forum today, number one and number two. NAZZ is up and most everything else down, particularly Small-Cap.
Wow, according to Morningstar at this moment, large growth is up 1.51% and small value down 3.10% today. Wonder what the biggest single day difference is among the highest and lowest performing sector.
We have seen the tug of war between Large Growth and Small Value for months now. I think this might be a sign of change in market leadership, the market has been lead by Large Growth, High Tech, and FAANG plus Microsoft for a long time now. I think what we are seeing is reaction to a disappointing jobs report. A slow growth economy seems to favor the Large Growth and Tech stocks. If it looks like the economy (and inflation) are picking up then Value does better. So the market is trying to decide whether economic recovery will be strong or if it will be relatively weak.
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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid »

The NASDAQ is up 149.35, the S&P 500 up 6.46, and the Dow down 140.6. So Value and probably Small Value is in free fall and Large Cap Growth and the NAZZ are soaring.
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mtmingus
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mtmingus »

Commodity got slaughtered today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

i guess it’s roaring 20’s sentiment?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

mtmingus wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 3:31 pm Commodity got slaughtered today.
Yes. My Vanguard Commodity Strategy Fund went -2.66%. It's a little below 1% of my total portfolio, and I added a little bit today. I plan on rebalancing into it if it continues to go down.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by firebirdparts »

Commodities are not a "thing". Steel is going up and up. Lumber is going down and down. Not sure about bacon. Supply and demand forces for bacon, lumber, and steel are not closely connected.

But Gold yesterday. Holy cow. I wonder if gold ever dropped that much in one day before. Don't care enough to research that, though.

I would post some more but I have to go saw off a catalytic converter.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by csan »

firebirdparts wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:15 am Commodities are not a "thing". Steel is going up and up. Lumber is going down and down. Not sure about bacon. Supply and demand forces for bacon, lumber, and steel are not closely connected.

But Gold yesterday. Holy cow. I wonder if gold ever dropped that much in one day before. Don't care enough to research that, though.

I would post some more but I have to go saw off a catalytic converter.
How/where does one view commodities by these types categories?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fanmail »

Futures down sharply this morning. Can’t find reason yet.
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firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by firebirdparts »

How/where does one view commodities by these types categories?
For what it's worth, I don't try to make it actionable. If I want to see current prices of things I don't follow, I just google them.

I work in the chemicals industry, in products that are not traded using futures. I have lots of exposure at work to the prices of commodities that are tradable. We buy a lot of this stuff. What i have learned from this is that our forecasting is generally not working. We have vast financial incentives to forecast well, and we can't. I have subscriptions to outside people who forecast all sorts of products including the ones we make. They can't do it either.

Based on that, I don't speculate in them. I don't feel like they're subject to general ideas like "these might do well during inflation." When times are bad, prices go down, it seems to me like, but I'm not going to short them.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Pre-market is looking ugly. Hold on!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

Does the Fed normally even talk about possible changes to the rates 18-24 months out? Seems bizarre to me.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave »

ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:55 am Does the Fed normally even talk about possible changes to the rates 18-24 months out? Seems bizarre to me.
I have seen it called "jawboning", and it is an attempt to move markets without actually doing anything.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:55 am Does the Fed normally even talk about possible changes to the rates 18-24 months out? Seems bizarre to me.
Not that I can remember. I guess Powell did not want to catch markets off guard in 2023 if the Fed is forced to raise rates.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

CurlyDave wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 8:41 am
ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:55 am Does the Fed normally even talk about possible changes to the rates 18-24 months out? Seems bizarre to me.
I have seen it called "jawboning", and it is an attempt to move markets without actually doing anything.
My friend says this is actually their game - they influence the markets without setting policies, and change the policies as the last resort.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 9:20 am
...My friend says this is actually their game - they influence the markets without setting policies, and change the policies as the last resort.
Well, they should feel free to influence them in an upward direction any time they want.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by firebirdparts »

They certainly influenced TMF in an upward direction.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by newyorker »

Anyone know what caused market drop today?
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

newyorker wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:05 am Anyone know what caused market drop today?
Jim Bullard, St. Louis fed president, floated the idea of a late 2022 rate hike.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

newyorker wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:05 am Anyone know what caused market drop today?
Maybe it doesn't matter? See:
I suggest not wasting a lot of time and thought about whether the market go up or down over a day or any other short period of time. Whether it soars or tanks over the short term is of little concern to me. I believe a key to long term investing success is simply to keep your focus only on the long term and to assume that today's market activity like almost all daily market news is just noise, not actionable. Financial media obsesses with the details of day to day market action--why it happens that way, how long it will last--and market volatility up or down provides them a constant source of grist for their mill.

I suggest spending your attention and focus instead on getting and keeping a solid investment plan and a diversified portfolio that is suited to you, paying as little attention as possible to financial media and news. The media creates stories not primarily to inform the investing public of important events, but instead to create either fear or excitement emotional hooks that will keep you reading or watching it. Financial corporate and media output is ultimately self-serving designed to maintains the flow of advertising and investment dollars its pockets. True, valid, and timeless investing insight are rare commodities in financial media, a needle lost the in haystack of noise.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

newyorker wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:05 am Anyone know what caused market drop today?
Weeding out the TINA investors. They're scurrying back going back into bonds??
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

lostdog wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:17 am
newyorker wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:05 am Anyone know what caused market drop today?
Weeding out the TINA investors. They're scurrying back going back into bonds??
Oh goodness, poor TINA is on her fainting couch. Seriously, though, this is just short-term market action. How often have we seen the market get scared by something, rethink things, and then once again march higher? Not saying this will happen. Just saying it's possible.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

atdharris wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:14 am
newyorker wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:05 am Anyone know what caused market drop today?
Jim Bullard, St. Louis fed president, floated the idea of a late 2022 rate hike.
That's interesting, I don't know why president Bullard said that which contradicts what Chair Powell said a couple of days ago.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nisiprius »

newyorker wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:05 am Anyone know what caused market drop today?
It's rarely a useful question. The usual answer is either "nobody knows" or "those who talk don't know and those who know don't talk." People want reasons, and the demand creates a supply of "reasons." Both Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Jeremy Siegel have given examples of the foolishness of reported "reasons."

In 'The Black Swan', Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote:
One day in December 2003, when Saddam Hussein was captured, Bloomberg News flashed the following headline at 13:01: U.S. Treasuries Rise; Hussein Capture May Not Curb Terrorism. ... Half an hour later, they had to issue a new headline. As these U.S. Treasury bonds fell in price (they fluctuate all day long, so there was nothing special about that), Bloomberg News had a new reason for the fall: Saddam's capture (the same Saddam). At 13:31 they issued the next bulletin: U.S. Treasuries Fall; Hussein Capture Boosts Allure of Risky Assets. So it was the same capture (the cause) explaining one event and its exact opposite.
In 'Stocks for the Long Run,' Jeremy Siegel wrote:
On November 15, 1991, when the Dow fell more than 120 points, or nearly 4 percent, Investor's Business Daily ran an article about the market entitled "Dow Plunges 120 in a Scary Stock Sell-Off: Biotechs, Programs, Expiration and Congress Get the Blame." In contrast, the London-based Financial Times published a front-page article by a New York writer entitled "Wall Street Drops 120 Points on Concern at Russian Moves." What is interesting is that such news, specifically that Russian government had suspended oil licenses and taken over the gold supplies, was not mentioned even once in the Investor's Business Daily article!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Jags4186 »

newyorker wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:05 am Anyone know what caused market drop today?
More sellers than buyers
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:24 am
atdharris wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:14 am
newyorker wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:05 am Anyone know what caused market drop today?
Jim Bullard, St. Louis fed president, floated the idea of a late 2022 rate hike.
That's interesting, I don't know why president Bullard said that which contradicts what Chair Powell said a couple of days ago.
My interpretation is that Bullard is saying if we get surprising inflation, rates could lift next year. The Fed is not expecting it, so the present expectation is still for a 2023 hike, not 2022.

From Bloomberg article, "Bullard Says High Inflation May Call for Fed Liftoff Next Year" link

Quoting Bullard:
For those on the FOMC who don’t currently anticipate beginning to raise rates next year, “they’re most likely associated with a forecast that says that the inflation will go back down below 2% during that year, and then the committee wouldn’t be oriented toward raising rates at that point,” he said.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tamalak »

I'd happily take a few weeks like this to get TINA out of the picture!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:33 am
Marseille07 wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:24 am
atdharris wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:14 am
newyorker wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:05 am Anyone know what caused market drop today?
Jim Bullard, St. Louis fed president, floated the idea of a late 2022 rate hike.
That's interesting, I don't know why president Bullard said that which contradicts what Chair Powell said a couple of days ago.
My interpretation is that Bullard is saying if we get surprising inflation, rates could lift next year. The Fed is not expecting it, so the present expectation is still for a 2023 hike, not 2022.

From Bloomberg article, "Bullard Says High Inflation May Call for Fed Liftoff Next Year" link

Quoting Bullard:
For those on the FOMC who don’t currently anticipate beginning to raise rates next year, “they’re most likely associated with a forecast that says that the inflation will go back down below 2% during that year, and then the committee wouldn’t be oriented toward raising rates at that point,” he said.
Thank you. I love the language some of those officials use :D You have to read carefully to exactly understand what they're saying.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:37 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:33 am
Marseille07 wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:24 am
atdharris wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:14 am
newyorker wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:05 am Anyone know what caused market drop today?
Jim Bullard, St. Louis fed president, floated the idea of a late 2022 rate hike.
That's interesting, I don't know why president Bullard said that which contradicts what Chair Powell said a couple of days ago.
My interpretation is that Bullard is saying if we get surprising inflation, rates could lift next year. The Fed is not expecting it, so the present expectation is still for a 2023 hike, not 2022.

From Bloomberg article, "Bullard Says High Inflation May Call for Fed Liftoff Next Year" link

Quoting Bullard:
For those on the FOMC who don’t currently anticipate beginning to raise rates next year, “they’re most likely associated with a forecast that says that the inflation will go back down below 2% during that year, and then the committee wouldn’t be oriented toward raising rates at that point,” he said.
Thank you. I love the language some of those officials use :D You have to read carefully to exactly understand what they're saying.
Kathy Jones, Chief Fixed Income Strategist for Schwab, tweeted that: "Fed struggling with communications/signaling = volatility"
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

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Jags4186 wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:26 am
newyorker wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:05 am Anyone know what caused market drop today?
More sellers than buyers
There’s always an equal number of sellers and buyers. :twisted:

But today, sellers are more motivated to sell than buyers are to buy.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ksualum »

You know it's funny. We forget how historically bad the fed has been at predicting inflation, and probably more importantly how hard it is to predict period.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

newyorker wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:05 am Anyone know what caused market drop today?
Few market gurus can adequately answer that question, but all of them can predict what the market will do in the coming weeks.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by KineticSync »

My megacorp 401k deposit happens every other Monday. Just once, just one time, I'd like to see some of this jawboning happen on a Monday so I have a fair shot at a dip.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

ksualum wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:53 am You know it's funny. We forget how historically bad the fed has been at predicting inflation, and probably more importantly how hard it is to predict period.
The purpose of jawboning isn't to be correct. They aren't even trying to predict inflation, even though they sound like they are. It is all about influencing the economy without taking drastic measures.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MishkaWorries »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:59 am
ksualum wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:53 am You know it's funny. We forget how historically bad the fed has been at predicting inflation, and probably more importantly how hard it is to predict period.
The purpose of jawboning isn't to be correct. They aren't even trying to predict inflation, even though they sound like they are. It is all about influencing the economy without taking drastic measures.
The feds just turned the stove knob a little tweak. The frogs feel a little change in water temperature but they'll settle back down again real soon.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Beensabu »

newyorker wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:05 am Anyone know what caused market drop today?
It's a quadruple witching day. Not my terminology.
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ksualum
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ksualum »

well, this still does beat the daily 5% drops we had at the beginning of the pandemic . . . . It could be worse
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

ksualum wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 12:37 pm well, this still does beat the daily 5% drops we had at the beginning of the pandemic . . . . It could be worse
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

Next hour could be bloody
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Let's back up the truck! Where's Tony?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lazynovice »

Beensabu wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 12:16 pm
newyorker wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:05 am Anyone know what caused market drop today?
It's a quadruple witching day. Not my terminology.
Thanks for the reminder. Those are supposed to be magic days for meme stocks and that does not appear to be happening.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lazynovice »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:57 pm Let's back up the truck! Where's Tony?
I backed up but a little more like a Civic than a truck. Had a little more than I needed in bonds and bought some ITOT. All these talks of rate hikes have had my bond funds on a roll lately. Go figure. Seems like the bond market is reading the futures dates but the stock market just heard “rate hike”
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

lazynovice wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 2:13 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:57 pm Let's back up the truck! Where's Tony?
I backed up but a little more like a Civic than a truck. Had a little more than I needed in bonds and bought some ITOT. All these talks of rate hikes have had my bond funds on a roll lately. Go figure. Seems like the bond market is reading the futures dates but the stock market just heard “rate hike”
I think the markets are still digesting the messaging from Chair Powell & president Bullard. Personally I don't even understand why 10Y is crashing after the Fed indicated 2 hikes in 2023. I just keep backing up my tricycle though.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

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Backing up my backpack...
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bltkmt »

Jags4186 wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:26 am
newyorker wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:05 am Anyone know what caused market drop today?
More sellers than buyers
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

mtmingus wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 2:22 pm Backing up my backpack...
Don’t fill it with rocks. You might tip over backwards. :twisted:

Rather, fill it with light, airy stocks that are certain to rise when equities resume their normal “soaring”.
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