I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

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cj2018
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by cj2018 »

**Yawn**

Wake me up when all the International funds such as VT or VTIAX start being priced in some "International" currencies other than the good old USD :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag

Till then, I sleep very well being 100% US only :)
cj2018
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by cj2018 »

In fact, I find it very amusing people actually care so much about allocation to international funds as US-domicile investors.

Like, you are spending USD to buy stuff that's priced in USD. Non-US people are either restricted in buying these funds priced in USD all together (e.g. China), or they have to convert whatever currencies they own to USD first before they can purchase these "international fund" funds. So at the end of the day, the VT/VTIAX of the world are still products Made In The USA, right?
typical.investor
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by typical.investor »

cj2018 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:14 am **Yawn**

Wake me up when all the International funds such as VT or VTIAX start being priced in some "International" currencies other than the good old USD :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag

Till then, I sleep very well being 100% US only :)
Does this mean a or b for you?

a) when funds traded in the US start using a different currency (i.e. the USD ceases to exist)
-or-
b) that you don't understand currency and don't realize VT and VTIAX equivalents do trade in other countries in other currencies (such as GBP and EUR).

It doesn't matter what currency of VT or VTIAX or any fund is. All that matters is the currency exposure of the underlying holdings.

Anyway, go back to sleep. You seem tired.
typical.investor
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by typical.investor »

cj2018 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:24 am In fact, I find it very amusing people actually care so much about allocation to international funds as US-domicile investors.
I believe you don't understand how currencies work.
cj2018 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:24 amLike, you are spending USD to buy stuff that's priced in USD. Non-US people are either restricted in buying these funds priced in USD all together (e.g. China), or they have to convert whatever currencies they own to USD first before they can purchase these "international fund" funds.
No they don't. Many can purchase funds denominated in their home currencies.
cj2018 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:24 amSo at the end of the day, the VT/VTIAX of the world are still products Made In The USA, right?
No. VT/VTIAX convert USD to buy the underlying stocks.

You can buy a foreign made automobile at a dealership in the US using USD too. You are saying that makes it Made In The USA. By that definition, of things sold in the US, what isn't?
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empb
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by empb »

These threads... What can you tell people that believe the US is both lower risk and will generate higher returns?
cj2018
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by cj2018 »

typical.investor wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:24 am
cj2018 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:14 am **Yawn**

Wake me up when all the International funds such as VT or VTIAX start being priced in some "International" currencies other than the good old USD :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag

Till then, I sleep very well being 100% US only :)
Does this mean a or b for you?

a) when funds traded in the US start using a different currency (i.e. the USD ceases to exist)
-or-
b) that you don't understand currency and don't realize VT and VTIAX equivalents do trade in other countries in other currencies (such as GBP and EUR).

It doesn't matter what currency of VT or VTIAX or any fund is. All that matters is the currency exposure of the underlying holdings.

Anyway, go back to sleep. You seem tired.

I meant a.

What do VT/VTIAX equivalents have to do with my points? I'm not following your logic.

I thought everyone here is discussing international funds such as VT/VTIAX which are the products of Vanguard and they are priced in USD.
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QuestioningWanderer
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by QuestioningWanderer »

cj2018 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:14 am **Yawn**

Wake me up when all the International funds such as VT or VTIAX start being priced in some "International" currencies other than the good old USD :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag

Till then, I sleep very well being 100% US only :)
Sounds like home country bias to me.

Look:
- We know we cannot pick stocks.
- We know we cannot pick sectors.
- We know we cannot pick mutual funds.
- But when it comes to geography, we suddenly gain magical ability to pick the outperforming locales!

Does that make any sense :confused :confused :confused
Always question status quo.
Marseille07
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by Marseille07 »

QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:51 am
cj2018 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:14 am **Yawn**

Wake me up when all the International funds such as VT or VTIAX start being priced in some "International" currencies other than the good old USD :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag

Till then, I sleep very well being 100% US only :)
Sounds like home country bias to me.

Look:
- We know we cannot pick stocks.
- We know we cannot pick sectors.
- We know we cannot pick mutual funds.
- But when it comes to geography, we suddenly gain magical ability to pick the outperforming locales!

Does that make any sense :confused :confused :confused
Yes, because your premises are incorrect. No one said we can't do those things. It's just that doing them while beating passive investing is *difficult*, but certainly not impossible.
typical.investor
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by typical.investor »

cj2018 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:35 am
typical.investor wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:24 am
cj2018 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:14 am **Yawn**

Wake me up when all the International funds such as VT or VTIAX start being priced in some "International" currencies other than the good old USD :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag

Till then, I sleep very well being 100% US only :)
Does this mean a or b for you?

a) when funds traded in the US start using a different currency (i.e. the USD ceases to exist)
-or-
b) that you don't understand currency and don't realize VT and VTIAX equivalents do trade in other countries in other currencies (such as GBP and EUR).

It doesn't matter what currency of VT or VTIAX or any fund is. All that matters is the currency exposure of the underlying holdings.

Anyway, go back to sleep. You seem tired.

I meant a.

What do VT/VTIAX equivalents have to do with my points? I'm not following your logic.
equivalents hold the same stocks
cj2018 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:35 am I thought everyone here is discussing international funds such as VT/VTIAX which are the products of Vanguard and they are priced in USD.
Fund denomination is irrelevant. Whether VT is sold on an exchange that uses USD or and equivalent is sold on an exchange in another currency, the exposure is the same.
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QuestioningWanderer
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by QuestioningWanderer »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:54 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:51 am
cj2018 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:14 am **Yawn**

Wake me up when all the International funds such as VT or VTIAX start being priced in some "International" currencies other than the good old USD :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag

Till then, I sleep very well being 100% US only :)
Sounds like home country bias to me.

Look:
- We know we cannot pick stocks.
- We know we cannot pick sectors.
- We know we cannot pick mutual funds.
- But when it comes to geography, we suddenly gain magical ability to pick the outperforming locales!

Does that make any sense :confused :confused :confused
Yes, because your premises are incorrect. No one said we can't do those things. It's just that doing them while beating passive investing is *difficult*, but certainly not impossible.
I was referring to "boglehead" forum members.

This isn't really a forum for people who believe in narrative of stock picking possibility.

Therefore in context of Boglehead narrative that we don't have any additional, insight knowledge on how to pick stocks, sectors, mutual funds, what knowledge do we suddenly gain to determine that US will outperform that the rest of the market does not possess?
Always question status quo.
Marseille07
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by Marseille07 »

QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:05 am This isn't really a forum for people who believe in narrative of stock picking possibility.

Therefore in context of Boglehead narrative that we don't have any additional, insight knowledge on how to pick stocks, sectors, mutual funds, what knowledge do we suddenly gain to determine that US will outperform that the rest of the market does not possess?
That's fair, but I think the angle you're coming from is still strange.

US holders probably believe that the US will continue to do fine, or at least on par with ex-US. But this is different than *knowing* US will outperform. No one is making such a claim as far as I know.
JBTX
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by JBTX »

Beensabu wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:56 pm
JBTX wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:29 pm
Beensabu wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:28 pm
JBTX wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:22 pm
Beensabu wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:06 pm

Good idea.

I hereby challenge you to a duel.

Let us argue about this particular topic, quite contentiously.

Which side do you want to be on?
https://youtu.be/ohDB5gbtaEQ
LOL. Before I clicked on the link, I was like "Is it Monty Python? Please be Monty Python..."
No you didn't.
Oh yes I did, and you can't prove otherwise.
Yes I can.
typical.investor
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by typical.investor »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:24 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:05 am This isn't really a forum for people who believe in narrative of stock picking possibility.

Therefore in context of Boglehead narrative that we don't have any additional, insight knowledge on how to pick stocks, sectors, mutual funds, what knowledge do we suddenly gain to determine that US will outperform that the rest of the market does not possess?
That's fair, but I think the angle you're coming from is still strange.

US holders probably believe that the US will continue to do fine, or at least on par with ex-US. But this is different than *knowing* US will outperform. No one is making such a claim as far as I know.
There is little difference between claiming you *know* the US will outperform and you *know* the US will do fine or at least on par with ex-US. Nobody can *know* either.

It's a historical fact that the US suffered a debilitating civil war and it is a certainty that US stocks will *not* do as well as ex-US should another occur. Perhaps you don't see that as even a potential risk, but you'd have to keep your eyes closed at recent events to dismiss the possibility out-of-hand.

Note: there is simply no political commentary here. To posit that the US alone is free from country risk is simply absurd.
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by Valuethinker »

tvubpwcisla wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:55 am I have decided to exclude international funds from my portfolio. I have watched a lot of videos about Mr. Bogle and he also excluded them and saw no reason to own any. What are your thoughts on either including or excluding international from your portfolio?
I just want to say that I deeply regret following John Bogle's advice.

I am underweight international, and it has really hurt.

The US market has shot away compared to the UK market ;-).
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by visualguy »

empb wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:34 am These threads... What can you tell people that believe the US is both lower risk and will generate higher returns?
What you say to them is "congratulations on doing so well for so long with your investment". :greedy I don't see the point in arguing with people who have had great long-term success with their strategy.
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tvubpwcisla
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by tvubpwcisla »

Great discussion. It sounds like whether you include international in your investment strategy or you do not, you will most likely end up just fine.
Stay invested my friends.
acegolfer
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by acegolfer »

IMO, having anywhere between 0% to 50% in international is perfectly fine. To me, it's a personal choice (similar to how much to allocate to bonds).
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JonnyDVM
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by JonnyDVM »

tvubpwcisla wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 5:51 am Great discussion. It sounds like whether you include international in your investment strategy or you do not, you will most likely end up just fine.
Sure. If by “just fine” you mean having to work an extra decade or so along with the sting of being embarrassed about your very very wrong internet posts which live on forever.
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
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QuestioningWanderer
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by QuestioningWanderer »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:24 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:05 am This isn't really a forum for people who believe in narrative of stock picking possibility.

Therefore in context of Boglehead narrative that we don't have any additional, insight knowledge on how to pick stocks, sectors, mutual funds, what knowledge do we suddenly gain to determine that US will outperform that the rest of the market does not possess?

US holders probably believe that the US will continue to do fine, or at least on par with ex-US. But this is different than *knowing* US will outperform. No one is making such a claim as far as I know.
That is literally just home country bias.

US investors think US is special, because they were randomised in it.

It's basically stock picking. You pick only US stocks.
Always question status quo.
Da5id
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by Da5id »

QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:12 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:24 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:05 am This isn't really a forum for people who believe in narrative of stock picking possibility.

Therefore in context of Boglehead narrative that we don't have any additional, insight knowledge on how to pick stocks, sectors, mutual funds, what knowledge do we suddenly gain to determine that US will outperform that the rest of the market does not possess?

US holders probably believe that the US will continue to do fine, or at least on par with ex-US. But this is different than *knowing* US will outperform. No one is making such a claim as far as I know.
That is literally just home country bias.

US investors think US is special, because they were randomised in it.

It's basically stock picking. You pick only US stocks.
Narrative -- Bogle and Buffett say, US is better in ways X,Y,Z (that aren't priced in apparently), lack of comfort with other countries -- together with recent strong US outperformance --> confidence that US will outperform forever.

Mind you there are plenty of biases to go around. Probably if someone presented a good case for investing only in US stocks confirmation bias would cause those of us who buy some international to not accept it.

But yeah, I don't never not get the US only rationale either personally (OK, double negative title of thread is kinda wacky).
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by David Jay »

z3r0c00l wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 8:49 amis helmed by a CEO with a 8-byte attention span.
Any yet one of his firms is the first company to operate reusable rockets and carry humans into space. Imagine what he could do with an 8-word attention span...
Last edited by David Jay on Wed Jun 16, 2021 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by Marseille07 »

typical.investor wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 2:18 am There is little difference between claiming you *know* the US will outperform and you *know* the US will do fine or at least on par with ex-US. Nobody can *know* either.

It's a historical fact that the US suffered a debilitating civil war and it is a certainty that US stocks will *not* do as well as ex-US should another occur. Perhaps you don't see that as even a potential risk, but you'd have to keep your eyes closed at recent events to dismiss the possibility out-of-hand.

Note: there is simply no political commentary here. To posit that the US alone is free from country risk is simply absurd.
Nobody said they *know* on either agenda though, is what I'm saying. I acknowledge that the US holders *think* US will do fine or at least on par with ex-US. But thinking so is very different than claiming to know so.
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by cjking »

Da5id wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:40 pm
MorgansRun wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:35 pm My international exposure is S&P index companies who do business outside of the US. I'm sure there are many, but what's the flaw in that logic?
Japanese investor before the bubble burst "My international exposure is Nikkei companies who do business outside of Japan. I'm sure there are many, but what's the flaw in that logic?"
Quoting this reply to support it.

One reason owning GM might give you an utterly different expected return than owning Toyota is that the amount of investment money chasing up the prices of US-listed shares might be very different to the amount of investment money chasing Japanese-listed ones. You may say "efficient markets blah blah", but in response I say look at how many US investors on this site think it's OK to shun the rest of the world. A lot of money is not free to go to where the best prices are.
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by Nathan Drake »

cjking wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:10 am
Da5id wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:40 pm
MorgansRun wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:35 pm My international exposure is S&P index companies who do business outside of the US. I'm sure there are many, but what's the flaw in that logic?
Japanese investor before the bubble burst "My international exposure is Nikkei companies who do business outside of Japan. I'm sure there are many, but what's the flaw in that logic?"
Quoting this reply to support it.

One reason owning GM might give you an utterly different expected return than owning Toyota is that the amount of investment money chasing up the prices of US-listed shares might be very different to the amount of investment money chasing Japanese-listed ones. You may say "efficient markets blah blah", but in response I say look at how many US investors on this site think it's OK to shun the rest of the world. A lot of money is not free to go to where the best prices are.
That concept may be true but it also has limits, and risks a huge correction on the other side

Indeed, most of the outperformance is driven by a speculative mirage and not fundamentals. Reality tends to eventually hit home
TN_Boy
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by TN_Boy »

QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:12 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:24 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:05 am This isn't really a forum for people who believe in narrative of stock picking possibility.

Therefore in context of Boglehead narrative that we don't have any additional, insight knowledge on how to pick stocks, sectors, mutual funds, what knowledge do we suddenly gain to determine that US will outperform that the rest of the market does not possess?

US holders probably believe that the US will continue to do fine, or at least on par with ex-US. But this is different than *knowing* US will outperform. No one is making such a claim as far as I know.
That is literally just home country bias.

US investors think US is special, because they were randomised in it.

It's basically stock picking. You pick only US stocks.
I have plenty of international stocks and despite the relative underperformance I'm happy with that choice; I like the extra diversification. Sometimes diversification works in the wrong direction ....

That said, actually the US *is* and has been "special." It's not just home country bias.

1) Largest economy in the world
2) US dollar is the world's dominant reserve currency.
3) The "business environment" in terms of property rights, flow of capital, accounting transparency, taxation etc is pretty good
4) During the 20th century the US became the world's dominant military power (as it grew into the worlds largest economy).
5) While becoming the dominant military and economic power, it managed to avoid being devastated by world wars.

Note that the strength of the US currency is part of the more recent outperformance.

Because of 1) to 3) I think a US based investor is not doing anything stupid holding only US stocks. But if you live in a country that doesn't have those attributes (like basically all non-US investors), you are probably unwise holding only home country stocks.
apex84
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by apex84 »

Interestingly, US GDP as a share of global GDP is likely shrinking.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/u-s-sh ... over-time/

FWIW, I hold a global portfolio with some home country bias (60/40 US/ex-US). I see little reason to try to predict what the world will look like 10, 20, 30, 40 years from now.
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QuestioningWanderer
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by QuestioningWanderer »

TN_Boy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:45 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:12 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:24 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:05 am This isn't really a forum for people who believe in narrative of stock picking possibility.

Therefore in context of Boglehead narrative that we don't have any additional, insight knowledge on how to pick stocks, sectors, mutual funds, what knowledge do we suddenly gain to determine that US will outperform that the rest of the market does not possess?

US holders probably believe that the US will continue to do fine, or at least on par with ex-US. But this is different than *knowing* US will outperform. No one is making such a claim as far as I know.
That is literally just home country bias.

US investors think US is special, because they were randomised in it.

It's basically stock picking. You pick only US stocks.
I have plenty of international stocks and despite the relative underperformance I'm happy with that choice; I like the extra diversification. Sometimes diversification works in the wrong direction ....

That said, actually the US *is* and has been "special." It's not just home country bias.

1) Largest economy in the world
2) US dollar is the world's dominant reserve currency.
3) The "business environment" in terms of property rights, flow of capital, accounting transparency, taxation etc is pretty good
4) During the 20th century the US became the world's dominant military power (as it grew into the worlds largest economy).
5) While becoming the dominant military and economic power, it managed to avoid being devastated by world wars.

Note that the strength of the US currency is part of the more recent outperformance.

Because of 1) to 3) I think a US based investor is not doing anything stupid holding only US stocks. But if you live in a country that doesn't have those attributes (like basically all non-US investors), you are probably unwise holding only home country stocks.
None of that is special knowledge the rest of the market doesn't know already.

Also, China is largest economy in world now.
Always question status quo.
lostdog
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by lostdog »

by Cheez-It Guy » Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:10 pm

"Never is a long time. But I don't regret it yet. I don't really care to make money by betting against my home country anyway."

by roth evangelist » Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:02 pm

"I'm investing for the next 70+ years so I feel like I would be taking a considerable amount of risk with zero international. I feel like the 40% of the total world index is too much, so I've settled on about 25% for the time being."


If you look closely, investing for some is based on a hunch, betting and personal ideologies. New investors, please look closely to some of the comments that come from the US only crowd and pay attention.
TN_Boy
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by TN_Boy »

QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:55 am
TN_Boy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:45 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:12 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:24 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:05 am This isn't really a forum for people who believe in narrative of stock picking possibility.

Therefore in context of Boglehead narrative that we don't have any additional, insight knowledge on how to pick stocks, sectors, mutual funds, what knowledge do we suddenly gain to determine that US will outperform that the rest of the market does not possess?

US holders probably believe that the US will continue to do fine, or at least on par with ex-US. But this is different than *knowing* US will outperform. No one is making such a claim as far as I know.
That is literally just home country bias.

US investors think US is special, because they were randomised in it.

It's basically stock picking. You pick only US stocks.
I have plenty of international stocks and despite the relative underperformance I'm happy with that choice; I like the extra diversification. Sometimes diversification works in the wrong direction ....

That said, actually the US *is* and has been "special." It's not just home country bias.

1) Largest economy in the world
2) US dollar is the world's dominant reserve currency.
3) The "business environment" in terms of property rights, flow of capital, accounting transparency, taxation etc is pretty good
4) During the 20th century the US became the world's dominant military power (as it grew into the worlds largest economy).
5) While becoming the dominant military and economic power, it managed to avoid being devastated by world wars.

Note that the strength of the US currency is part of the more recent outperformance.

Because of 1) to 3) I think a US based investor is not doing anything stupid holding only US stocks. But if you live in a country that doesn't have those attributes (like basically all non-US investors), you are probably unwise holding only home country stocks.
None of that is special knowledge the rest of the market doesn't know already.

Also, China is largest economy in world now.
I wasn't making a statement about what the market knew. I was pointing that the US, obviously, has been a special case over the last 100 years or so. Will it continue to be "special?" I don't know. That's why I hold international stocks.

China is not the world's largest economy.
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by Dottie57 »

atdharris wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:03 am I include them because I have no idea if/when they will outperform US markets again. However, I limit my exposure to 20% total spread throughout my accounts.
Same reason here. Am at 30% international
Robot Monster
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by Robot Monster »

TN_Boy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:06 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:55 am Also, China is largest economy in world now.
China is not the world's largest economy.
Funny, I did a search on this and found:
From 2020, "China Is Now the World’s Largest Economy. We Shouldn’t Be Shocked." link
From 2021, "New chart shows China could overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy earlier than expected" link

Not surprised there's confusion about this point.
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TN_Boy
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by TN_Boy »

Robot Monster wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:15 am
TN_Boy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:06 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:55 am Also, China is largest economy in world now.
China is not the world's largest economy.
Funny, I did a search on this and found:
From 2020, "China Is Now the World’s Largest Economy. We Shouldn’t Be Shocked." link
From 2021, "New chart shows China could overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy earlier than expected" link

Not surprised there's confusion about this point.
Fair enough.

I'm working off this (and similar links).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... _(nominal)

As the first article you linked points out, when you adjust for PPP, you get a different answer. Though I'm not sure PPP is always the preferable metric.
ckangas
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by ckangas »

Da5id wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:20 am Probably if someone presented a good case for investing only in US stocks confirmation bias would cause those of us who buy some international to not accept it.
Maybe.

If I thought holding EM and developed did not add diversification, I'd happily hold 100% US.
The taxes for tax advantaged accounts for things like dividends is better, and the funds tend to be better for the US. And all of the regular home country bias and convenience of holding what others are holding.

That being said, I'm not sure how one could ever demonstrate or prove it. Although I'd likely accept a strong model, rationale, and historical results.
Nathan Drake
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by Nathan Drake »

TN_Boy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:45 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:12 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:24 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:05 am This isn't really a forum for people who believe in narrative of stock picking possibility.

Therefore in context of Boglehead narrative that we don't have any additional, insight knowledge on how to pick stocks, sectors, mutual funds, what knowledge do we suddenly gain to determine that US will outperform that the rest of the market does not possess?

US holders probably believe that the US will continue to do fine, or at least on par with ex-US. But this is different than *knowing* US will outperform. No one is making such a claim as far as I know.
That is literally just home country bias.

US investors think US is special, because they were randomised in it.

It's basically stock picking. You pick only US stocks.
I have plenty of international stocks and despite the relative underperformance I'm happy with that choice; I like the extra diversification. Sometimes diversification works in the wrong direction ....

That said, actually the US *is* and has been "special." It's not just home country bias.

1) Largest economy in the world
2) US dollar is the world's dominant reserve currency.
3) The "business environment" in terms of property rights, flow of capital, accounting transparency, taxation etc is pretty good
4) During the 20th century the US became the world's dominant military power (as it grew into the worlds largest economy).
5) While becoming the dominant military and economic power, it managed to avoid being devastated by world wars.

Note that the strength of the US currency is part of the more recent outperformance.

Because of 1) to 3) I think a US based investor is not doing anything stupid holding only US stocks. But if you live in a country that doesn't have those attributes (like basically all non-US investors), you are probably unwise holding only home country stocks.
Japan had 1) and 3) in the 80s and that wasn’t enough to protect you from a prolonged period of very poor performance

I think it’s completely foolish to have a 100% portfolio based on a single country

The fact that the US is all these great things ignores that it’s already priced in, the price you pay does matter, and that other countries can change, and even the risks of the US can change

The world is such a dynamic place and by creating these binary classifications is backwards looking mindset that has no great basis in evaluating future investment opportunities
NYCPete
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by NYCPete »

TropikThunder wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:30 pm Funny part, I guess OP didn’t want to have a discussion, they just wanted to kick the beehive and go elsewhere.
That's kind of OP's M.O. Starts a thread with a question posed, or some vague yet mildly controversial statement that implies they're looking for a discussion. The thread gets to dozens or sometimes hundreds of replies, with many directly addressing the OP's question or asking clarifying questions in return. More often than not, OP is nowhere to be seen and never, ever posts a reply. They've done it on inflation, the indexes, whether this is the worst time to be passively invested, technical indicators, and a host of other topics. No responses even to threads that have pages and pages of replies. As a matter of fact, they've even got another thread started just in the last day on how work from home plays into the current market. When they created that post, they still had not yet responded to this one. (They now have)

The threads usually contain some interesting insights from other BH contributors, so it's not like there's nothing one can get out of it. But their post history suggests your observation is accurate.

Best,
Peter
To the extent that a fool knows his foolishness, | He may be deemed wise | A fool who considers himself wise | Is indeed a fool. | | Buddha
atdharris
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by atdharris »

TN_Boy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:06 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:55 am
TN_Boy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:45 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:12 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:24 am


US holders probably believe that the US will continue to do fine, or at least on par with ex-US. But this is different than *knowing* US will outperform. No one is making such a claim as far as I know.
That is literally just home country bias.

US investors think US is special, because they were randomised in it.

It's basically stock picking. You pick only US stocks.
I have plenty of international stocks and despite the relative underperformance I'm happy with that choice; I like the extra diversification. Sometimes diversification works in the wrong direction ....

That said, actually the US *is* and has been "special." It's not just home country bias.

1) Largest economy in the world
2) US dollar is the world's dominant reserve currency.
3) The "business environment" in terms of property rights, flow of capital, accounting transparency, taxation etc is pretty good
4) During the 20th century the US became the world's dominant military power (as it grew into the worlds largest economy).
5) While becoming the dominant military and economic power, it managed to avoid being devastated by world wars.

Note that the strength of the US currency is part of the more recent outperformance.

Because of 1) to 3) I think a US based investor is not doing anything stupid holding only US stocks. But if you live in a country that doesn't have those attributes (like basically all non-US investors), you are probably unwise holding only home country stocks.
None of that is special knowledge the rest of the market doesn't know already.

Also, China is largest economy in world now.
I wasn't making a statement about what the market knew. I was pointing that the US, obviously, has been a special case over the last 100 years or so. Will it continue to be "special?" I don't know. That's why I hold international stocks.

China is not the world's largest economy.
Even if China is going to be larger than the US, their economy does not work the same. Despite all the growth in the last decade, emerging markets have not kept up with the US at all.
Nathan Drake
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by Nathan Drake »

atdharris wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:20 pm
TN_Boy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:06 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:55 am
TN_Boy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:45 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:12 am
That is literally just home country bias.

US investors think US is special, because they were randomised in it.

It's basically stock picking. You pick only US stocks.
I have plenty of international stocks and despite the relative underperformance I'm happy with that choice; I like the extra diversification. Sometimes diversification works in the wrong direction ....

That said, actually the US *is* and has been "special." It's not just home country bias.

1) Largest economy in the world
2) US dollar is the world's dominant reserve currency.
3) The "business environment" in terms of property rights, flow of capital, accounting transparency, taxation etc is pretty good
4) During the 20th century the US became the world's dominant military power (as it grew into the worlds largest economy).
5) While becoming the dominant military and economic power, it managed to avoid being devastated by world wars.

Note that the strength of the US currency is part of the more recent outperformance.

Because of 1) to 3) I think a US based investor is not doing anything stupid holding only US stocks. But if you live in a country that doesn't have those attributes (like basically all non-US investors), you are probably unwise holding only home country stocks.
None of that is special knowledge the rest of the market doesn't know already.

Also, China is largest economy in world now.
I wasn't making a statement about what the market knew. I was pointing that the US, obviously, has been a special case over the last 100 years or so. Will it continue to be "special?" I don't know. That's why I hold international stocks.

China is not the world's largest economy.
Even if China is going to be larger than the US, their economy does not work the same. Despite all the growth in the last decade, emerging markets have not kept up with the US at all.
The preceding decade saw huge multiples expansion in 00-09

EM vastly outperformed US during this time period, valuations got stretched.

Sounds similar to where US is looking right now, while it may be a great time to invest in EM
atdharris
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by atdharris »

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:20 pm
atdharris wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:20 pm
TN_Boy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:06 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:55 am
TN_Boy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:45 am

I have plenty of international stocks and despite the relative underperformance I'm happy with that choice; I like the extra diversification. Sometimes diversification works in the wrong direction ....

That said, actually the US *is* and has been "special." It's not just home country bias.

1) Largest economy in the world
2) US dollar is the world's dominant reserve currency.
3) The "business environment" in terms of property rights, flow of capital, accounting transparency, taxation etc is pretty good
4) During the 20th century the US became the world's dominant military power (as it grew into the worlds largest economy).
5) While becoming the dominant military and economic power, it managed to avoid being devastated by world wars.

Note that the strength of the US currency is part of the more recent outperformance.

Because of 1) to 3) I think a US based investor is not doing anything stupid holding only US stocks. But if you live in a country that doesn't have those attributes (like basically all non-US investors), you are probably unwise holding only home country stocks.
None of that is special knowledge the rest of the market doesn't know already.

Also, China is largest economy in world now.
I wasn't making a statement about what the market knew. I was pointing that the US, obviously, has been a special case over the last 100 years or so. Will it continue to be "special?" I don't know. That's why I hold international stocks.

China is not the world's largest economy.
Even if China is going to be larger than the US, their economy does not work the same. Despite all the growth in the last decade, emerging markets have not kept up with the US at all.
The preceding decade saw huge multiples expansion in 00-09

EM vastly outperformed US during this time period, valuations got stretched.

Sounds similar to where US is looking right now, while it may be a great time to invest in EM
I am invested in EM in all of my accounts so I'd welcome it doing well, but I'll believe it when I see it.
UpperNwGuy
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by UpperNwGuy »

I just topped off my international to bring it back up to 20% of equities. It keeps dropping below the 20% target as it loses the race with US equities. I keep waiting for that coming "decade of international outperformance" that the theoreticians here on bogleheads keep promising us.
Da5id
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by Da5id »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:48 pm I just topped off my international to bring it back up to 20% of equities. It keeps dropping below the 20% target as it loses the race with US equities. I keep waiting for that coming "decade of international outperformance" that the theoreticians here on bogleheads keep promising us.
If your basis for owning something is in any large part because of posts by some stranger in bogleheads rather than believing in it yourself, perhaps you should reconsider your strategy? I own international, but not because of what people post or have "promised" me. At most a post in bogleheads should make you investigate an idea. IMO of course.
UpperNwGuy
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by UpperNwGuy »

Da5id wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:53 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:48 pm I just topped off my international to bring it back up to 20% of equities. It keeps dropping below the 20% target as it loses the race with US equities. I keep waiting for that coming "decade of international outperformance" that the theoreticians here on bogleheads keep promising us.
If your basis for owning something is in any large part because of posts by some stranger in bogleheads rather than believing in it yourself, perhaps you should reconsider your strategy? I own international, but not because of what people post or have "promised" me. At most a post in bogleheads should make you investigate an idea. IMO of course.
Oh, don't worry. I don't invest based on what I read here on bogleheads. I have my own opinions, and they've been formed after lots of my own research. My comment above was a bit tongue in cheek because the market weight crowd keeps promising something that never seems to happen. I've always distrusted the theoreticians. For my personal portfolio, I don't consider it a hardship to invest in nominal bonds, even though they don't keep up with inflation, so it is even less of a hardship for me to invest in international as it is beating inflation even though it isn't beating US equities.
NiceUnparticularMan
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by NiceUnparticularMan »

Da5id wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:53 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:48 pm I just topped off my international to bring it back up to 20% of equities. It keeps dropping below the 20% target as it loses the race with US equities. I keep waiting for that coming "decade of international outperformance" that the theoreticians here on bogleheads keep promising us.
If your basis for owning something is in any large part because of posts by some stranger in bogleheads rather than believing in it yourself, perhaps you should reconsider your strategy? I own international, but not because of what people post or have "promised" me. At most a post in bogleheads should make you investigate an idea. IMO of course.
For me, the comforting thought is I just keep buying more productive assets around the world for cheap.

And that is consistent with my own philosophy.

Predictions about upcoming price changes based on valuation assessments? Not so much my thing.
visualguy
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by visualguy »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:48 pm I just topped off my international to bring it back up to 20% of equities. It keeps dropping below the 20% target as it loses the race with US equities. I keep waiting for that coming "decade of international outperformance" that the theoreticians here on bogleheads keep promising us.
Even if a significant period of ex-US outperformance comes, there's no realistic hope of it coming anywhere near to catching up with US in long-term returns since it's so far behind. There would need to be some huge crash in the US, while ex-US flourishes. I wouldn't hold my breath...
willyd123
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by willyd123 »

To me this is a buy signal bigly
z3r0c00l
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by z3r0c00l »

David Jay wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:39 am
z3r0c00l wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 8:49 amis helmed by a CEO with a 8-byte attention span.
Any yet one of his firms is the first company to operate reusable rockets and carry humans into space. Imagine what he could do with an 8-word attention span...
Reusable manned spacecraft like the space shuttle circa 1981?
100% Global Stocks / Ibond Emergency Fund
User avatar
Beensabu
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by Beensabu »

JBTX wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:45 am
Beensabu wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:56 pm
JBTX wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:29 pm
Beensabu wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:28 pm
JBTX wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:22 pm

https://youtu.be/ohDB5gbtaEQ
LOL. Before I clicked on the link, I was like "Is it Monty Python? Please be Monty Python..."
No you didn't.
Oh yes I did, and you can't prove otherwise.
Yes I can.
No you can't.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next."
Da5id
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by Da5id »

willyd123 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:21 pm To me this is a buy signal bigly
While I don't believe in acting on such signals, I have to say the "time to go all in on US stocks" or "time to abandon my SCV tilt" type threads are probably leading indicators of some sort.
GoldenFinch
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by GoldenFinch »

I really don’t think it makes too much of a difference whether you include international or not. I do have some, but I don’t really care about it one way or the other. Just stay the course with what you like and go on a hike or something. (That’s my new philosophy. Stay the course, and hike.)
Nathan Drake
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by Nathan Drake »

visualguy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:09 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:48 pm I just topped off my international to bring it back up to 20% of equities. It keeps dropping below the 20% target as it loses the race with US equities. I keep waiting for that coming "decade of international outperformance" that the theoreticians here on bogleheads keep promising us.
Even if a significant period of ex-US outperformance comes, there's no realistic hope of it coming anywhere near to catching up with US in long-term returns since it's so far behind. There would need to be some huge crash in the US, while ex-US flourishes. I wouldn't hold my breath...
This is fallacious reasoning. ExUS could simply perform better with compounded higher returns for a long period of time. A US crash isn’t required.

And of course it’s highly dependent on your personal investment horizon. An investor that had been 100% US only since the 90s enjoyed 2 out of 3 those decades with out performance. Starting and ending dates.

But if that investor looks at their portfolio with glee and says “Nice! I have finally reached a 4% SWR! I can retire on 60/40 US only portfolio” and both bonds and US stocks proceed to return negative real returns for the next 10-15 years collectively (due to overvaluation of both assets), they will be in an absolutely disastrous retirement scenario. Meanwhile, if during the same timeframe exUS has significant real returns, this investor has put themselves in a an unfortunate position due to lack of adequate diversification and a failure to appreciate risk.

But of course the reasonable among us aren’t 100% anything, so our bets are hedged either way.
TN_Boy
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Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

Post by TN_Boy »

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:20 am
TN_Boy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:45 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:12 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:24 am
QuestioningWanderer wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:05 am This isn't really a forum for people who believe in narrative of stock picking possibility.

Therefore in context of Boglehead narrative that we don't have any additional, insight knowledge on how to pick stocks, sectors, mutual funds, what knowledge do we suddenly gain to determine that US will outperform that the rest of the market does not possess?

US holders probably believe that the US will continue to do fine, or at least on par with ex-US. But this is different than *knowing* US will outperform. No one is making such a claim as far as I know.
That is literally just home country bias.

US investors think US is special, because they were randomised in it.

It's basically stock picking. You pick only US stocks.
I have plenty of international stocks and despite the relative underperformance I'm happy with that choice; I like the extra diversification. Sometimes diversification works in the wrong direction ....

That said, actually the US *is* and has been "special." It's not just home country bias.

1) Largest economy in the world
2) US dollar is the world's dominant reserve currency.
3) The "business environment" in terms of property rights, flow of capital, accounting transparency, taxation etc is pretty good
4) During the 20th century the US became the world's dominant military power (as it grew into the worlds largest economy).
5) While becoming the dominant military and economic power, it managed to avoid being devastated by world wars.

Note that the strength of the US currency is part of the more recent outperformance.

Because of 1) to 3) I think a US based investor is not doing anything stupid holding only US stocks. But if you live in a country that doesn't have those attributes (like basically all non-US investors), you are probably unwise holding only home country stocks.
Japan had 1) and 3) in the 80s and that wasn’t enough to protect you from a prolonged period of very poor performance

I think it’s completely foolish to have a 100% portfolio based on a single country

The fact that the US is all these great things ignores that it’s already priced in, the price you pay does matter, and that other countries can change, and even the risks of the US can change

The world is such a dynamic place and by creating these binary classifications is backwards looking mindset that has no great basis in evaluating future investment opportunities
As I said, I personally find the extra diversification international equities give me attractive and I'm a US based investor.

I did not think Japan's economy ever got bigger than the US economy, even back in the 80s bubble days, but perhaps I don't remember correctly.

And while I remember all the articles about how great Japan was back in the 80s, I do not consider Japan in the 80s comparable to the US.

Point 2) is important, just like 4) is important. US population much larger than Japan, US much greater natural resources, US much stronger immigration etc.

The US has clearly been "special." Whether this "specialness" will continue is a matter of speculation and we care about forward returns, not backward ones.

While I disagree with a US only portfolio, even for a US investor, I don't think it is completely foolish.
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