Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

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JonnyDVM
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by JonnyDVM »

EXTRA!!! EXTRA!! READ ALL ABOUT IT!!

“Novices lose money on volatile, speculative investment”

Good gravy. What a headline! This has never happened before.
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watchnerd
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

JonnyDVM wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 2:38 pm EXTRA!!! EXTRA!! READ ALL ABOUT IT!!

“Novices lose money on volatile, speculative investment”

Good gravy. What a headline! This has never happened before.
The data was far more interesting than the headline.

The fact that the data even exists is interesting -- it's a level of insights that is hard to get in the stock market, outside of private brokerage records.

Since you can see how long people in the market have owned BTC, that has interesting implications for EMH.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

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“Experience is the best teacher, and the worst experiences teach the best lessons.”

― Jordan Peterson
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Texanbybirth »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 2:41 pm
JonnyDVM wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 2:38 pm EXTRA!!! EXTRA!! READ ALL ABOUT IT!!

“Novices lose money on volatile, speculative investment”

Good gravy. What a headline! This has never happened before.
The data was far more interesting than the headline.

The fact that the data even exists is interesting -- it's a level of insights that is hard to get in the stock market, outside of private brokerage records.

Since you can see how long people in the market have owned BTC, that has interesting implications for EMH.
+1

This is why blockchain technology (aside from any discussion of cryptocurrency) is exciting in my industry. It will take a long time to implement, but I really hope analysis like the kind above is possible for other asset classes (equities, fixed income, commodities, even derivatives).
“The strong cannot be brave. Only the weak can be brave; and yet again, in practice, only those who can be brave can be trusted, in time of doubt, to be strong.“ - GK Chesterton
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watchnerd
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

Texanbybirth wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 2:51 pm

+1

This is why blockchain technology (aside from any discussion of cryptocurrency) is exciting in my industry. It will take a long time to implement, but I really hope analysis like the kind above is possible for other asset classes (equities, fixed income, commodities, even derivatives).
I read this:
SOPR measures the net profit/loss position of bitcoin outstanding.
And my reaction was...WAIT...WHAT?

You can tell how much of the market is sitting on a profit???

I'm still thinking over the implications of that.

Nothing like that exists in the regular stock market.

You might be able to infer some guesses from the futures market, but there is nothing at all that tells me how long the shares of a given stock have been held for every stock out there.
Last edited by watchnerd on Mon May 17, 2021 3:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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HomerJ
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by HomerJ »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 2:41 pm
JonnyDVM wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 2:38 pm EXTRA!!! EXTRA!! READ ALL ABOUT IT!!

“Novices lose money on volatile, speculative investment”

Good gravy. What a headline! This has never happened before.
The data was far more interesting than the headline.

The fact that the data even exists is interesting -- it's a level of insights that is hard to get in the stock market, outside of private brokerage records.

Since you can see how long people in the market have owned BTC, that has interesting implications for EMH.
Okay, I see your point. That is good data to have.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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OohLaLa
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by OohLaLa »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 3:02 pm [...]
SOPR measures the net profit/loss position of bitcoin outstanding.
And my reaction was...WAIT...WHAT?

You can tell how much of the market is sitting on a profit???

I'm still thinking over the implications of that.

Nothing like that exists in the regular stock market.

You might be able to infer some guesses from the futures market, but there is nothing at all that tells me how long the shares of a given stock have been held for every stock out there.
Yup, imagine me being able to see you brokerage activity, with timestamps and volume of your transactions. :twisted:
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 3:02 pm
Texanbybirth wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 2:51 pm

+1

This is why blockchain technology (aside from any discussion of cryptocurrency) is exciting in my industry. It will take a long time to implement, but I really hope analysis like the kind above is possible for other asset classes (equities, fixed income, commodities, even derivatives).
I read this:
SOPR measures the net profit/loss position of bitcoin outstanding.
And my reaction was...WAIT...WHAT?

You can tell how much of the market is sitting on a profit???

I'm still thinking over the implications of that.

Nothing like that exists in the regular stock market.

You might be able to infer some guesses from the futures market, but there is nothing at all that tells me how long the shares of a given stock have been held for every stock out there.
Yeah definitely. Following on-chain analysts on Twitter is quite fun. When it comes to stock technical analysis, it is all just lines on a chart voodoo nonsense (looking for "head and shoulders" patterns, etc). But on-chain analysis shows a lot of interesting stuff that you can't see in stock markets, like when a "whale" (meaning a large holder) moves a whole bunch of coin to a major exchange, it's a pretty good signal that some selling is about to happen (and when you see a huge amount shifted from an exchange to another wallet, a signal that a whale is moving coin into cold storage). And you can see it in real time.

I even saw reports earlier today on specific trades in various altcoins that Mark Cuban was making, just by looking at activity on his ETH wallet. Crazy stuff.
Last edited by txhill on Mon May 17, 2021 3:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

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OohLaLa wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 3:07 pm
Yup, imagine me being able to see you brokerage activity, with timestamps and volume of your transactions. :twisted:
Some have been saying that the crypto markets are inefficient -- perhaps because they're so volatile, or there is so much [expletive removed by admin LadyGeek] pumping.

But if I can potentially see the activity of almost every coin and actor in the market, it may be the opposite:

Crypto may be hyper-efficient.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

txhill wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 3:10 pm

I even saw reports earlier today on specific trades in various altcoins that Mark Cuban was making, just by looking at activity on his ETH wallet. Crazy stuff.
Amazing.

Active managers and hedge funds often go to great lengths to try to hide from the stock market when they're trying to establish a position.

This level of transparency means they're going to have to have oodles of wallets to scatter their trades across to remain stealthy.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by decapod10 »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 3:17 pm
txhill wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 3:10 pm

I even saw reports earlier today on specific trades in various altcoins that Mark Cuban was making, just by looking at activity on his ETH wallet. Crazy stuff.
Amazing.

Active managers and hedge funds often go to great lengths to try to hide from the stock market when they're trying to establish a position.

This level of transparency means they're going to have to have oodles of wallets to scatter their trades across to remain stealthy.
You can "shadow trade" your favorite crypto luminary if you want to just by watching their wallet, people do this in NFTs as well. However, they often have both public facing wallets and private wallets if they want to try to hide some moves they are making.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 3:11 pm
OohLaLa wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 3:07 pm
Yup, imagine me being able to see you brokerage activity, with timestamps and volume of your transactions. :twisted:
Some have been saying that the crypto markets are inefficient -- perhaps because they're so volatile, or there is so much [expletive removed by admin LadyGeek] pumping.

But if I can potentially see the activity of almost every coin and actor in the market, it may be the opposite:

Crypto may be hyper-efficient.
Well to be fair, additional disclosure through trades made on the blockchain does not necessarily mean greater disclosure overall--and we probably do see a lot less disclosure in crypto generally than in other markets, and potentially more forms of misleading info. So maybe crypto has the potential to be more efficiently traded than other securities, but it's definitely not there yet.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Gadget »

HomerJ wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 2:08 pm
Is it fun that a bunch of newer market entrants have realized significant losses? Continually pumping up crypto is dangerous and will hurt a lot of people in the end who cannot afford the losses.
I don't disagree with your sentiment, but this is true of all investing and stocks. /r/wsb bans crypto talk, and they find plenty of ways to lose all their money in the stock market. This scenario isn't exclusive to crypto. If you pay attention to growth tech stocks, many are down 50% or more in recent weeks.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by HomerJ »

Gadget wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 3:53 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 2:08 pm
Is it fun that a bunch of newer market entrants have realized significant losses? Continually pumping up crypto is dangerous and will hurt a lot of people in the end who cannot afford the losses.
I don't disagree with your sentiment, but this is true of all investing and stocks. /r/wsb bans crypto talk, and they find plenty of ways to lose all their money in the stock market. This scenario isn't exclusive to crypto. If you pay attention to growth tech stocks, many are down 50% or more in recent weeks.
Sure, but at least HERE, on Bogleheads.org, in the past, we tried to educate and protect new investors from making those mistakes.

Until recently.

Now we're full of crypto bulls who mention 10x gains at least 5 times in most posts with a minor throwaway near the end (Oh but it's risky).
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Texanbybirth »

HomerJ wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 4:02 pm
Gadget wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 3:53 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 2:08 pm
Is it fun that a bunch of newer market entrants have realized significant losses? Continually pumping up crypto is dangerous and will hurt a lot of people in the end who cannot afford the losses.
I don't disagree with your sentiment, but this is true of all investing and stocks. /r/wsb bans crypto talk, and they find plenty of ways to lose all their money in the stock market. This scenario isn't exclusive to crypto. If you pay attention to growth tech stocks, many are down 50% or more in recent weeks.
Sure, but at least HERE, on Bogleheads.org, in the past, we tried to educate and protect new investors from making those mistakes.

Until recently.

Now we're full of crypto bulls who mention 10x gains at least 5 times in most posts with a minor throwaway near the end (Oh but it's risky).
+1, well said mostly. (I'm at least not down 50%...yet.)
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by starboi »

Doge is still up 6.81% over the last 7 days.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by TheCaterer »

HomerJ wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 4:02 pm Now we're full of crypto bulls who mention 10x gains at least 5 times in most posts with a minor throwaway near the end (Oh but it's risky).
It's amazing how many inaccurate claims you managed to stuff into one sentence.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

HomerJ wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 4:02 pm

Now we're full of crypto bulls who mention 10x gains at least 5 times in most posts with a minor throwaway near the end (Oh but it's risky).
This too shall pass when the crypto markets crash and wipe people out when the music stops.

Then much schadenfreude will ensue.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Gadget »

HomerJ wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 4:02 pm
Gadget wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 3:53 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 2:08 pm
Is it fun that a bunch of newer market entrants have realized significant losses? Continually pumping up crypto is dangerous and will hurt a lot of people in the end who cannot afford the losses.
I don't disagree with your sentiment, but this is true of all investing and stocks. /r/wsb bans crypto talk, and they find plenty of ways to lose all their money in the stock market. This scenario isn't exclusive to crypto. If you pay attention to growth tech stocks, many are down 50% or more in recent weeks.
Sure, but at least HERE, on Bogleheads.org, in the past, we tried to educate and protect new investors from making those mistakes.

Until recently.

Now we're full of crypto bulls who mention 10x gains at least 5 times in most posts with a minor throwaway near the end (Oh but it's risky).
I'm just of the camp that this is America, and I'm free to lose my money however I want. It's up to me to manage risk. I come to bogleheads to learn about the risks and compare different options. Believe it or not, I'm also maxing my I bonds and EE bonds yearly...

No one here is suggesting to jump into crypto with a significant percent of your net worth. I'm not sure where you're seeing all these crypto bulls yoloing everything into crypto and posting 10x gains.

And since you love looking at crypto gains, I'm at about 3.5x on my ETH. And a measly 1.6x on my BTC. Even with the recent crash, and not including any staked ETH returns or BTC lending returns.

If all my crypto goes to zero, I'll still be able to retire easily. Maybe just not as early or as lavishly.

If I was near retirement, I wouldn't be investing this much in crypto. If at all. But I've got years left, and I can take additional risks. If I were to take over my parents portfolio (who are about to retire), I'd be putting them in 0 crypto.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Kookaburra »

I hope crypto keeps falling until they’re properly valued, i.e., worth as much as Chuck E Cheese tokens.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by langlands »

Kookaburra wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 7:41 pm I hope crypto keeps falling until they’re properly valued, i.e., worth as much as Chuck E Cheese tokens.
Seems like you've made your mind up pretty quickly about crypto as an investment? I think only a week ago you were asking whether there was a crypto ETF.

viewtopic.php?p=5994354#p5994354
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by JonnyDVM »

I legitimately feel like this dip is a golden opportunity to make an outsized gain in a very short window of time... and yet I’m struggling to compell myself to put any more money in.

It’s hard when that little voice in the back of your head tells you the floor is potentially $0
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Kookaburra »

langlands wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 8:17 pm
Kookaburra wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 7:41 pm I hope crypto keeps falling until they’re properly valued, i.e., worth as much as Chuck E Cheese tokens.
Seems like you've made your mind up pretty quickly about crypto as an investment? I think only a week ago you were asking whether there was a crypto ETF.

viewtopic.php?p=5994354#p5994354
I sure did! That post was very helpful. I ain’t touching it with a 10-foot pole.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by JonnyDVM »

Kookaburra wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 8:24 pm
langlands wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 8:17 pm
Kookaburra wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 7:41 pm I hope crypto keeps falling until they’re properly valued, i.e., worth as much as Chuck E Cheese tokens.
Seems like you've made your mind up pretty quickly about crypto as an investment? I think only a week ago you were asking whether there was a crypto ETF.

viewtopic.php?p=5994354#p5994354
I sure did! That post was very helpful. I ain’t touching it with a 10-foot pole.
You sound like me 6 months ago until fomo became unbearable and I went full “if you can’t beat them, join them” mode. I realized, at the end of the day, I don’t care about the underlying fundamentals. I’m just trying to make money. That’s what we’re all trying to do right? Take some money, and turn it into more money.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by HomerJ »

JonnyDVM wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 8:31 pmI’m just trying to make money. That’s what we’re all trying to do right? Take some money, and turn it into more money.
Sure, but making the wrong move means you take some money and flush it down the toilet.

Which means it takes you even longer to make more money.

Sometimes the right move is not to play.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

JonnyDVM wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 8:23 pm I legitimately feel like this dip is a golden opportunity to make an outsized gain in a very short window of time... and yet I’m struggling to compell myself to put any more money in.

It’s hard when that little voice in the back of your head tells you the floor is potentially $0
Don't think about the gain.

Assume the money will be flushed down the toilet and lost.

Where do you start to feel sick at the loss to 0?

$100?
$100,000?

Or maybe just stay out entirely this time -- it's late in the game.

Full disclosure:

My original buy-in at market weight relative to our portfolio was about ~$100k.

It's now lost about -$16,000.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Kookaburra »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 8:53 pm
JonnyDVM wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 8:23 pm I legitimately feel like this dip is a golden opportunity to make an outsized gain in a very short window of time... and yet I’m struggling to compell myself to put any more money in.

It’s hard when that little voice in the back of your head tells you the floor is potentially $0
Don't think about the gain.

Assume the money will be flushed down the toilet and lost.

Where do you start to feel sick at the loss to 0?

$100?
$100,000?

Or maybe just stay out entirely this time -- it's late in the game.

Full disclosure:

My original buy-in at market weight relative to our portfolio was about ~$100k.

It's now lost about -$16,000.
Can you tax-loss harvest that loss and re-buy it immediately without the wash sale rule for stocks?
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by vwgrrc »

decapod10 wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 6:45 pm
RobLyons wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 6:42 pm Elon is just pumping and dumping like it's his day job. And people are making / losing money off meme coins. It's fascinating to me this whole crypto movement. Can't wait to see what happens in the upcoming years. Will it tank? Will it blow up?
It will be an interesting movie one way or another, no matter what happens
Well - Even though I have only been in the crpyto space for about 4 years. I can confidently tell you it has being doing EXCATLY that in the past decade. Just pull up the chart. You won't find too much sideway movement :sharebeer
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Prahasaurus »

txhill wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 6:04 pm Yeah I bet the actual reason is a lot simpler than 4D chess. He probably just has narcissistic personality disorder and he found that he cannot control bitcoin or take credit for it, but he CAN control Dogecoin (and get credit for Dogecoin's rise). And he can't handle getting called out for being wrong on some very simple crypto attributes. Simple as that. So he's rage quitting BTC in favor of DOGE. Probably that's the same underlying reason for why he called the lead rescuer of the kids from the Thai caves a "pedo"--because that diver and others actually saved the kids while his hilariously stupid submersible stunt was a total failure. Just a narcissist lashing out.
Does Tesla have a functioning Finance Department and CFO? What is his opinion on all of this? Tesla puts 10% of their cash reserves in Bitcoin, a bold and risky move (some would say reckless). They claim it's to counteract fiat debasement, currency hedge, long term investors in crypto, will start to accept BTC as payment, etc., etc. Ok. And now, just weeks later, the CEO is trashing Bitcoin on Twitter? As if they never did any due diligence?

Tesla is starting to look like a clown company, run by another unstable genius more interested in himself than his company. Just so bizarre...
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

Kookaburra wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 9:29 pm

Can you tax-loss harvest that loss and re-buy it immediately without the wash sale rule for stocks?
90% of it is held in tax-sheltered Roth.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Flyer24 »

Stay focused on investing, please. An off-topic post about Elon Musk was deleted.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by iamlucky13 »

I have it on good authority (a friend who works for Elon) that cryptocurrencies are not in free fall. It's all part of brilliant strategy to make these
currencies more accessible to the common man.

I believe his post to his social media account more or less asserting the above was intended to be serious. I like him as a friend, but he's a good example of how the personality cult dynamic works.

So fear not, just like Henry Ford paid his workers more so they could afford to buy his cars and grow the market, Musk is manipulating crypto currencies so the rest of us can afford vacations on Mars. :beer

I guess that means this is the time to invest. Yet somehow, I don't feel putting my money in any of these currencies.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Prahasaurus »

Ethereum announces Q1 results*:

https://draecomino.substack.com/p/ether ... 21-results

Worldwide — May 17, 2021 — Ethereum (DEX: $ETH), the world’s leading decentralized, open source blockchain reported financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2021.

Total transaction fees, also known as network revenue, increased 200x to $1.7 billion in Q1 2021, compared with $8 million in Q1 2020. For the month of April, Ethereum generated annualized revenue run rate of $8.6 billion—comparable to AWS in 2015.

......

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) total value locked increased 64x to 52 billion in Q1 2021, compared with $0.8 billion in Q1 2020.

Stablecoin value on Ethereum increased 5x to $41.9 billion at quarter end Q1 2021, compared with $7.1 billion at quarter end Q1 2020.


Stellar results from the Ethereum team! You can read more at the link.






















*Obviously Ethereum does not issue financial statements or press releases. This is tongue in cheek. But the numbers are real.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by decapod10 »

Kookaburra wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 9:29 pm
Can you tax-loss harvest that loss and re-buy it immediately without the wash sale rule for stocks?
My understanding is that the wash sale rule only applies to securities, and cryptocurrencies are not considered securities by the IRS so the wash sale rule does not apply. I'm not a tax expert though.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by HomerJ »

Prahasaurus wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 10:58 pm For the month of April, Ethereum generated annualized revenue run rate of $8.6 billion—comparable to AWS in 2015.
This is dreck.

So we're supposed to assume that the growth of Ethereum will match AWS from 2015-2021 because it has the same numbers as AWS in 2015?

Such a weird disingenuous statistic.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Prahasaurus »

HomerJ wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 11:27 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 10:58 pm For the month of April, Ethereum generated annualized revenue run rate of $8.6 billion—comparable to AWS in 2015.
This is dreck.

So we're supposed to assume that the growth of Ethereum will match AWS from 2015-2021 because it has the same numbers as AWS in 2015?

Such a weird disingenuous statistic.
Absolutely not. The growth in Ethereum will be much higher.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by iamlucky13 »

Prahasaurus wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 10:58 pm Total transaction fees, also known as network revenue, increased 200x to $1.7 billion in Q1 2021, compared with $8 million in Q1 2020.

....

This is tongue in cheek. But the numbers are real.
Mind-blowing.

A coworker mentioned last year that he was investing in a friend's efforts to build a small cluster and get in on the mining. That made more sense to me than investing in the currencies themselves. I can appreciate the value of processing transactions more easily than buying the currency. And the worst case value loss, rather than being $0, is the value of the used computing hardware.
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watchnerd
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

iamlucky13 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:50 am And the worst case value loss, rather than being $0, is the value of the used computing hardware.
Used computing hardware - electricity costs.

Which might net to 0.

And you have to worry about the usable life of the rig for protocols like Ethereum that will switch to PoS.
Last edited by watchnerd on Tue May 18, 2021 1:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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decapod10
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by decapod10 »

iamlucky13 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:50 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 10:58 pm Total transaction fees, also known as network revenue, increased 200x to $1.7 billion in Q1 2021, compared with $8 million in Q1 2020.

....

This is tongue in cheek. But the numbers are real.
Mind-blowing.

A coworker mentioned last year that he was investing in a friend's efforts to build a small cluster and get in on the mining. That made more sense to me than investing in the currencies themselves. I can appreciate the value of processing transactions more easily than buying the currency. And the worst case value loss, rather than being $0, is the value of the used computing hardware.
Mining Ether will come to an end likely within a year, so it's not a good investment at this point. "Stakers" will take over this function, but the biggest cost is not the hardware, it's the 32 ETH that you must deposit in order to run a node.

Not sure how profitable mining Bitcoin or other currencies are.
decapod10
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by decapod10 »

watchnerd wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:56 am
iamlucky13 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:50 am And the worst case value loss, rather than being $0, is the value of the used computing hardware.
Used computing hardware - electricity costs.

Which might net to 0.
Internet access also, it may require a lot of data. Running an Ether 2.0 node often blows through people's data caps. You typically need to pay for unlimited data.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Prahasaurus »

decapod10 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 1:01 am
watchnerd wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:56 am
iamlucky13 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:50 am And the worst case value loss, rather than being $0, is the value of the used computing hardware.
Used computing hardware - electricity costs.

Which might net to 0.
Internet access also, it may require a lot of data. Running an Ether 2.0 node often blows through people's data caps. You typically need to pay for unlimited data.
https://ethereum.org/en/developers/docs ... d-clients/

Assume around 1 - 1.5TB of data usage per month if you run a full node.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Northern Flicker »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 3:17 pm
txhill wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 3:10 pm

I even saw reports earlier today on specific trades in various altcoins that Mark Cuban was making, just by looking at activity on his ETH wallet. Crazy stuff.
Amazing.

Active managers and hedge funds often go to great lengths to try to hide from the stock market when they're trying to establish a position.

This level of transparency means they're going to have to have oodles of wallets to scatter their trades across to remain stealthy.
That assumes that cryptocurrencies continue to be a speculation beyond the short-term. I think it is quite possible they will stabilize at some point, and hedge funds will lose interest.
My postings are my opinion, and never should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular investment.
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OohLaLa
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by OohLaLa »

If your friend just wants to get in on the action, can't he just allocate some coins to a staking pool and avoid the main complications?:
- infrastructure costs
- electricity + bandwidth costs
- huge front-loaded cost (32 ETH)

Unless he's interested in learning about the whole process, then this seems like a better trade-off. If you want to work on staking, in more general terms, just go for something more affordable.

Back on topic... I am down approx 30% on BTC and up approx 8.5% on ETH. I thought we were supposed to be crypto-millionaires. :( :mrgreen:
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watchnerd
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

OohLaLa wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 1:45 am

Back on topic... I am down approx 30% on BTC and up approx 8.5% on ETH. I thought we were supposed to be crypto-millionaires. :( :mrgreen:
That's in 2025. ;)

(if you believe stock to flow, and I'm high skeptical)

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/ ... low-model/
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HanSolo
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by HanSolo »

Gadget wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 3:53 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 2:08 pm Is it fun that a bunch of newer market entrants have realized significant losses? Continually pumping up crypto is dangerous and will hurt a lot of people in the end who cannot afford the losses.
I don't disagree with your sentiment, but this is true of all investing and stocks.
That's not really true. When in investing in common stocks of companies, you become part owner of the various businesses. People who buy stocks may overpay and get burnt sometimes, but some of them did their due diligence and knew they were overpaying and by approximately how much (e.g., by looking at book value and other metrics). For example, it could be argued that Buffett overpaid for BNSF, but he knew by how much, and decided that BNSF was still worth it. At least he knew he wasn't overpaying by a million percent, and there's no way to be certain of that with crypto.

If you make an assertion about "all investing", remember that Buffett, and other like-minded people, are also investors (in perhaps a truer sense of the word than what you meant).
watchnerd wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 4:29 pm This too shall pass when the crypto markets crash and wipe people out when the music stops.

Then much schadenfreude will ensue.
There will probably be some of that. But it's only one side of the story. Not everyone wishes ill on his fellow man. If the massive crash happens sooner rather than later, and this dissuades people who never played the game from getting into it at all, then some people may actually be happy that it prevented their neighbor, their garbage man, etc., from putting their life savings at risk in a casino-like atmosphere.
JonnyDVM wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 8:31 pm You sound like me 6 months ago until fomo became unbearable and I went full “if you can’t beat them, join them” mode. I realized, at the end of the day, I don’t care about the underlying fundamentals. I’m just trying to make money. That’s what we’re all trying to do right? Take some money, and turn it into more money.
The answer to your question is "no". Not everyone is trying to make money without working for it. There are some who, when they invest, their main objective is capital preservation, not growth of assets. They just want to save what they earned. Unfortunately, savings accounts are not known to maintain one's purchasing power in the long run, and some people get into equities because they tend to help maintain that.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Prahasaurus »

HanSolo wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 3:29 am
Gadget wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 3:53 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 2:08 pm Is it fun that a bunch of newer market entrants have realized significant losses? Continually pumping up crypto is dangerous and will hurt a lot of people in the end who cannot afford the losses.
I don't disagree with your sentiment, but this is true of all investing and stocks.
That's not really true. When in investing in common stocks of companies, you become part owner of the various businesses. People who buy stocks may overpay and get burnt sometimes, but some of them did their due diligence and knew they were overpaying and by approximately how much (e.g., by looking at book value and other metrics).
How is that different from AAVE? It's a governance token! You can compare market cap multiples to banks, as Aave will one day replace traditional banks, if they can continue to innovate and grow.

Same with UNI token, another governance token, and Coinbase is a great comparison. I made that comparison in December, showed that the revenue that UNI generates justifies a similar market cap multiple to Coinbase, and came up with a 40 USD UNI token (it was trading at 3.50 or so at the time).

The biggest mistake people make here when discussing "crypto" is lumping everything into one basket, not understanding the differences in tokens. It's similar to lumping stocks with bonds with commodities.
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SuperSaver
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by SuperSaver »

Prahasaurus wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 4:18 am
HanSolo wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 3:29 am
Gadget wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 3:53 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 2:08 pm Is it fun that a bunch of newer market entrants have realized significant losses? Continually pumping up crypto is dangerous and will hurt a lot of people in the end who cannot afford the losses.
I don't disagree with your sentiment, but this is true of all investing and stocks.
That's not really true. When in investing in common stocks of companies, you become part owner of the various businesses. People who buy stocks may overpay and get burnt sometimes, but some of them did their due diligence and knew they were overpaying and by approximately how much (e.g., by looking at book value and other metrics).
How is that different from AAVE? It's a governance token! You can compare market cap multiples to banks, as Aave will one day replace traditional banks, if they can continue to innovate and grow.

Same with UNI token, another governance token, and Coinbase is a great comparison. I made that comparison in December, showed that the revenue that UNI generates justifies a similar market cap multiple to Coinbase, and came up with a 40 USD UNI token (it was trading at 3.50 or so at the time).

The biggest mistake people make here when discussing "crypto" is lumping everything into one basket, not understanding the differences in tokens. It's similar to lumping stocks with bonds with commodities.
Would you care to update your asset allocation you shared back on Xmas 2020?


BTC - 40% - 40k USD
ETH - 20% - 20k USD
REN - 10% - 10k USD
SNX - 10% - 10k USD
AAVE - 10% - 10k USD
UNI - 10% - 10k USD

I feel like we are all following the ETHerd to some extent.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by JonnyDVM »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 8:53 pm
JonnyDVM wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 8:23 pm I legitimately feel like this dip is a golden opportunity to make an outsized gain in a very short window of time... and yet I’m struggling to compell myself to put any more money in.

It’s hard when that little voice in the back of your head tells you the floor is potentially $0
Don't think about the gain.

Assume the money will be flushed down the toilet and lost.

Where do you start to feel sick at the loss to 0?

$100?
$100,000?

Or maybe just stay out entirely this time -- it's late in the game.

Full disclosure:

My original buy-in at market weight relative to our portfolio was about ~$100k.

It's now lost about -$16,000.
Here’s the thing- I don’t like to be wrong. So if I say “this is going to make money” and it flops, the sting of being wrong hurts worse than the hard financial loss. As of now I’m using this as a way to entertain myself with a relatively small amount of fun money. If it goes to zero it’s going to be humiliating, but the impact on my life is 0%. I’m a long way from incorporating crypto into my portfolio as a long term buy and hold investment.

Speaking of not being wrong AAVE now over $650. BING-BONG
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by sweetnpsycho »

Prahasaurus wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 4:18 am How is that different from AAVE? It's a governance token! You can compare market cap multiples to banks, as Aave will one day replace traditional banks, if they can continue to innovate and grow.

Same with UNI token, another governance token, and Coinbase is a great comparison. I made that comparison in December, showed that the revenue that UNI generates justifies a similar market cap multiple to Coinbase, and came up with a 40 USD UNI token (it was trading at 3.50 or so at the time).

The biggest mistake people make here when discussing "crypto" is lumping everything into one basket, not understanding the differences in tokens. It's similar to lumping stocks with bonds with commodities.
Please explain how the tokens are like equity. What happens when you own the majority of AAVE tokens? Do AAVE token holders earn in AAVE tokens or in ether or in $?
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Prahasaurus »

SuperSaver wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 5:50 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 4:18 am
HanSolo wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 3:29 am
Gadget wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 3:53 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 2:08 pm Is it fun that a bunch of newer market entrants have realized significant losses? Continually pumping up crypto is dangerous and will hurt a lot of people in the end who cannot afford the losses.
I don't disagree with your sentiment, but this is true of all investing and stocks.
That's not really true. When in investing in common stocks of companies, you become part owner of the various businesses. People who buy stocks may overpay and get burnt sometimes, but some of them did their due diligence and knew they were overpaying and by approximately how much (e.g., by looking at book value and other metrics).
How is that different from AAVE? It's a governance token! You can compare market cap multiples to banks, as Aave will one day replace traditional banks, if they can continue to innovate and grow.

Same with UNI token, another governance token, and Coinbase is a great comparison. I made that comparison in December, showed that the revenue that UNI generates justifies a similar market cap multiple to Coinbase, and came up with a 40 USD UNI token (it was trading at 3.50 or so at the time).

The biggest mistake people make here when discussing "crypto" is lumping everything into one basket, not understanding the differences in tokens. It's similar to lumping stocks with bonds with commodities.
Would you care to update your asset allocation you shared back on Xmas 2020?


BTC - 40% - 40k USD
ETH - 20% - 20k USD
REN - 10% - 10k USD
SNX - 10% - 10k USD
AAVE - 10% - 10k USD
UNI - 10% - 10k USD

I feel like we are all following the ETHerd to some extent.
That was not my asset allocation at the time. I just said that I thought if you invested 100k in the coins above that over 5 years that 100k would be worth 1 million. Actually, it would already be worth 500k USD today, less than six months later, so almost there!

Since then, all of the coins are up a lot, and my thinking has changed a bit. I still think all of those projects should do very well long term, but I'm less bullish on BTC, more bullish on ETH. I also think UNI has gone up a lot (10x), and so upside from here is less than, say, AAVE.

But please don't buy anything on my advice, there are major risks, and it's also possible all of these projects will crash and burn. Make sure you really understand what you're getting yourself into...
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