Crypto mania !

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watchnerd
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

nisiprius wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 7:18 pm
watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:16 pm...But I think it's not the same as it used to be. The existence of crypto ETFs alone changes things...
What crypto ETFs? None in the US yet, or did the SEC just approve one?
No "true" ETFs in the US, although 4-5 in the pipe.

Canada is already operational and trading crypto ETFs.

But I can (and do) buy the Greyscale trust BTC and ETH funds, which trade like ETFs, even though they're not really ETFs. But nor are they mutual funds.

The AUM of the BTC and ETH trusts combined is ~$50B right now.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by claypigeon »

Gadget wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:43 pm
claypigeon wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 2:17 pm There are other third generation coins out there. I like algorand as well. But if I had to pick one coin to dominate the future it’s ADA / cardano
Your technical analysis of ADA is spot on. I'll play devil's advocate though.

I don't really see any convincing reasons for DeFi, Dapps, and NFTs to move from ETH to ADA unless the ethereum 2.0 merge fails. If that happens, I do think Cardano could be the next best option. But it seems like a big if.

Charles Hoskinson, the leader of Cardano, is also kind of a polarizing figure. I'm not a huge fan of him, but I could see how some could be. But I feel like he is one Youtube video away from causing a mass exodus from his platform just based on his political like rants.

Currently, the programming language for Cardano is terrible. Even if they implement smart contracts, I wouldn't want to have to develop on some weird language no one uses.

Part of the reason Cardano is able to have such cheap transaction costs is because no one is using the network. ETH would be pennies per transaction too if it had the usage Cardano did.

Projects like Matic are more of a threat to Cardano to me. Because Matic allows anyone to utilize and transact on the main ethereum network for pennies. If that is the case and Matic side chain support via Uniswap and other DeFi projects gains usage, what does Cardano have to offer?

If we're going purely off technicals, look at Harmony One. They have smart contracts, DeFi exchanges (ViperSwap), and they have one of the best implementations of sharding. Their transaction times are lightning quick. But no one uses ONE, so how inflated are their technicals? Would it have scaling issues if it became the giant that is Ethereum?

In my opinion, ADA is best suited as a downside hedge to a large bet on ETH. Like maybe if you had a bunch of ETH validators, you'd want some ADA before the ETH 2.0 merge just in case it fails.

To be fair, I used to have some ADA. I sold it all after reporting bugs that you can't use ADA on any of the main wallets with a hardware wallet and passphrase enabled. That seems like a capital offense on usability. It's been months, and they still haven't bothered to fix that bug, even though they said on reddit they are aware. I also got turned off on Hoskinsons rants.

Sorry for the delayed reply. And thank you for playing Devils advocate.

And agreed fully. So much of this relies on ethereum transitioning to proof of stake.

My personal investment situation is weird which likely reflects my strategy but I simply want to transfer whatever liquid cash I’d otherwise carry in my physical wallet or store at home into an income producing, liquid asset. And then hopefully, eventually transfer our 6 month emergency fund to something income producing rather than letting it sit in the bank for next to no interest. I’m not confident enough yet on using stable coins for this and am happy to take the volatility risk plus 5-6% APR over the 8-10% APR we can get from staking certain stable coins.

For all our other investments, I’m a set it and forget it index ETF with an internationally diversified, all value, heavy small cap value, tilt and am happy with what the market gives me.

To your points though Charles can be a jerk but reminds me of a less charismatic Elon Musk. So far he’s been able to straddle that “jerk” line without being so callous as to knock away much support. The small bugs you mention are very relevant and reflect poorly. I’ve looked into operating a node for the 340 ADA profit and it seems less than expected rewards go to smaller node operators. That too hasn’t been fixed. I did see some workarounds to get it on ledger nano x as a hardware wallet.

I’ll take a look at Matic and harmony one.

To use my video game analogy though, I do feel cardano is pivoting towards coexisting with ethereum. And not just in name only or through interoperability. The Africa deal with Ethiopia will be huge to get people into their “walled garden”. And their partnership with world mobile. Get enough people to adopt to tech using the blockchain and why wouldn’t they use ADA? They’re targeting the bankless whereas most coins are targeting the banked and developing tech to roll out to the bankless. Though there are quite a few coins on the ethereum network that do target the bankless.

We can debate Xbox one X vs PlayStation 5 but I have a PlayStation VR headset for my PS4, and with basically equivalent systems if not a slight edge to Xbox, I’m still upgrading to a PS5 when I can justify it (I have gotten a bunch but can’t justify holding a $500 system when I can put it on Facebook marketplace for $725 and get a sale that night). Now if Xbox had a workaround where my PSVR worked on it by using a piece of free hardware I had to plug in and take out every time, I still don’t know if Od go xbox. I’m happy to see other coins based on the ethereum network that help the unbanked but don’t want to go in and out of these every time I’d do a transaction. We’ll see what happens but it’s an exciting time.

I do agree 100% for mass investing purposes, ADA is best served as a hedge to ethereum. But for holding small amounts, I think the risk justifies the reward. If I could stake on ethereum with the thousand dollars or so of ADA I have, I’d transition over but 32 eth is a lot of money to not have in the market. It’s interesting to see those making the holding crypto as 2% of market portfolio comments as you’d need a lot of money to stake eth using that model. I’m sure there are workarounds but coinbase is at least showing your stake is locked for now so that won’t work for my particular purpose but may work well for others
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by ChinchillaWhiplash »

nisiprius wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 7:18 pm
watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:16 pm...But I think it's not the same as it used to be. The existence of crypto ETFs alone changes things...
What crypto ETFs? None in the US yet, or did the SEC just approve one?
This comes close https://grayscale.com/products/grayscal ... -cap-fund/
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by nisiprius »

ChinchillaWhiplash wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 8:13 pm
nisiprius wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 7:18 pm
watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:16 pm...But I think it's not the same as it used to be. The existence of crypto ETFs alone changes things...
What crypto ETFs? None in the US yet, or did the SEC just approve one?
This comes close https://grayscale.com/products/grayscal ... -cap-fund/
No, it doesn't come close. It is not an ETF--that it, not regulated under the Investment Company Act of 1940. It is a registered security that brokerages can legally trade. It's not even the equivalent of a listed stock--it trades in as an OTC (over-the-counter) security. You don't even need to go to the prospectus for that, it's right on the website--at the bottom in small grey print:
The shares of each Product are not registered under the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”), the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (except for Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and Grayscale Ethereum Trust), the Investment Company Act of 1940, or any state securities laws.
And judging from the postings about it, it has characteristics that are very different from an ETF like trading at discounts and premiums that would be unthinkable for an ETF.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by ChinchillaWhiplash »

nisiprius wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 10:11 pm
ChinchillaWhiplash wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 8:13 pm
nisiprius wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 7:18 pm
watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:16 pm...But I think it's not the same as it used to be. The existence of crypto ETFs alone changes things...
What crypto ETFs? None in the US yet, or did the SEC just approve one?
This comes close https://grayscale.com/products/grayscal ... -cap-fund/
No, it doesn't come close. It is not an ETF--that it, not regulated under the Investment Company Act of 1940. It is a registered security that brokerages can legally trade. It's not even the equivalent of a listed stock--it trades in as an OTC (over-the-counter) security. You don't even need to go to the prospectus for that, it's right on the website--at the bottom in small grey print:
The shares of each Product are not registered under the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”), the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (except for Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and Grayscale Ethereum Trust), the Investment Company Act of 1940, or any state securities laws.
And judging from the postings about it, it has characteristics that are very different from an ETF like trading at discounts and premiums that would be unthinkable for an ETF.
Well, maybe not the formal definition of an ETF. It is a fund that holds the top 70% of crypto currencies and trades like a stock, as in it has an OTC ticker symbol and you can buy and sell the shares. I see it as a weird hybrid fund. But that might be the closest you can currently get to an actual ETF of crypto for a while.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Prahasaurus »

The USA is one of the very few countries without a crypto ETF. Canada has a handful. Based on general comments here, it's clear there are many misconceptions around crypto ("Tulips!"), but the situation has improved greatly over the past six months. Education is key.

Fortunately, we should see crypto ETFs for US investors very soon. There is a possibility we'll have ETFs for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well. Exciting times as crypto goes more and more mainstream!
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

Bitcoin ETP listed on Deutsche Boerse started trading today:

https://www.coindesk.com/deutsche-boers ... itcoin-etp
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Toons »

Top99% wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:50 pm
Toons wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:23 pm Easy Come
Easy Go :wink:
Easy Go and _FAST_ Go is what I learned the hard way when the Tech Bubble popped and ~$2.5m disappeared before my eyes in less than 15 minutes. Greed can turn into fear with startling quickness. I suspect a new generation will be learning about this fairly soon but I won't try and predict when soon will be.
Bingo :wink:
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Jags4186 »

In the last 2 weeks I’ve had the following people ask me about crypto:

Mom
Aunt & Uncle
Sister-in-law and Brother-in-law
Two separate coworkers

It’s also been a topic of conversation amongst my group of friends.


Hard to think we’re not nearing a top.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Blueskies123 »

Grayscale is not an ETF. Think of it as a closed-end fund that can sell at premiums or discounts, sometimes substantially. Right now the Bitcoin fund is selling at an 18% discount.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

Jags4186 wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 10:07 am In the last 2 weeks I’ve had the following people ask me about crypto:

Mom
Aunt & Uncle
Sister-in-law and Brother-in-law
Two separate coworkers

It’s also been a topic of conversation amongst my group of friends.


Hard to think we’re not nearing a top.
The learning curve might slow people down.

If they're already using Robinhood, it's not a big deal.

But if they're already using a traditional brokerage, they may not bother with the hassle of setting up another account somewhere else, like Coinbase.

And Coinbase isn't good if you want to get into meme coins (Doge, Shiba).
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Blueskies123 »

Jags4186 wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 10:07 am In the last 2 weeks I’ve had the following people ask me about crypto:

Mom
Aunt & Uncle
Sister-in-law and Brother-in-law
Two separate coworkers

It’s also been a topic of conversation amongst my group of friends.


Hard to think we’re not nearing a top.
That is one way to think of it, another way to think of it is that there are no USA ETFs currently, and once they do become available a large pool of money will become available to invest. Other considerations are an uptick in inflation or a declining dollar.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Blueskies123 »

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 10:12 am
Jags4186 wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 10:07 am In the last 2 weeks I’ve had the following people ask me about crypto:

Mom
Aunt & Uncle
Sister-in-law and Brother-in-law
Two separate coworkers

It’s also been a topic of conversation amongst my group of friends.


Hard to think we’re not nearing a top.
The learning curve might slow people down.

If they're already using Robinhood, it's not a big deal.

But if they're already using a traditional brokerage, they may not bother with the hassle of setting up another account somewhere else, like Coinbase.

And Coinbase isn't good if you want to get into meme coins (Doge, Shiba).
There is like zero learning curve with Coinbase or Grayscale. Unless of course, you cannot operate a smartphone.
You can buy Grayscale thru a broker.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

Blueskies123 wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 10:18 am

There is like zero learning curve with Coinbase or Grayscale. Unless of course, you cannot operate a smartphone.
You can buy Grayscale thru a broker.
Oh, I agree, Coinbase and Grayscale aren't hard.

But the survey data from Gemini shows people over 55 not interested and not very willing to bother.

I don't think we've neared a top until orthodox Bogleheads start adding it.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Blueskies123 »

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 10:22 am
Blueskies123 wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 10:18 am

There is like zero learning curve with Coinbase or Grayscale. Unless of course, you cannot operate a smartphone.
You can buy Grayscale thru a broker.
Oh, I agree, Coinbase and Grayscale aren't hard.

But the survey data from Gemini shows people over 55 not interested and not very willing to bother.
I agree 100%, and a lot of those people have money to invest once there are real ETFs in the market. I am 67 and no one my age knows anything about Crypto, which why I think we are still early in the adoption cycle. Of course there will be many huge swings so I am prepared to see 50% to 80% swings until it settles down.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by OohLaLa »

I think a lot of folks are underestimating how convoluted the crypto environment is.

We are far from mass adoption, because:
- There are plenty of new concepts to understand before being able to transact in a flexible manner (wallets, exchanges, fees of different operations on different networks etc.)
- There are plenty of actors (brokers, proper exchanges in decentralized and centralized form, different projects) which cause a lot of confusion. Add on top of that that not all services are available worldwide, with restrictions in different jurisdictions.
- Fees can easily become exorbitant for any small investors. The swings in fees and the differences between different networks + exchanges/ brokers can be significant. You're getting nickeled-and-dimed (or quartered-and-dollared, when you look at certain fees :shock:) almost every step of the way.

People can hand-wave these points away, because they've found a good workaround or combo for themselves, but that misses the point entirely: there are no one-stop shop solutions with mass accessibility, good pricing, flexibility (features and coin choice) and ease of use. Your average person is not going to dig this deep.

Most of the people out there are not tech-savy, and not financially literate, which is a really bad combination in the crypto finance space. I fit the profile of someone who should pick this up real easy: I have experience with traditional investment and I know my way around tech. Yet, I still find the learning curve relatively steep. Now, take a look at something like Youtube and Reddit posts, and you'll see people are completely lost and just grasping at the first functional solution, without knowing basic things like how to fund accounts, put in orders, move funds, how taxation works etc.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by runninginvestor »

OohLaLa wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:03 am I think a lot of folks are underestimating how convoluted the crypto environment is.

We are far from mass adoption, because:

- There are plenty of new concepts to understand before being able to transact in a flexible manner (wallets, exchanges, fees of different operations on different networks etc.)
- There are plenty of actors (brokers, proper exchanges in decentralized and centralized form, different projects) which cause a lot of confusion. Add on top of that that not all services are available worldwide, with restrictions in different jurisdictions.
- Fees can easily become exorbitant for any small investors. The swings in fees and the differences between different networks + exchanges/ brokers can be significant. You're getting nickeled-and-dimed (or quartered-and-dollared, when you look at certain fees :shock:) almost every step of the way.

People can hand-wave these points away, because they've found a good workaround or combo for themselves, but that misses the point entirely: there are no one-stop shop solutions with mass accessibility, good pricing, flexibility (features and coin choice) and ease of use. Your average person is not going to dig this deep.

Most of the people out there are not tech-savy, and not financially literate, which is a really bad combination in the crypto finance space. I fit the profile of someone who should pick this up real easy: I have experience with traditional investment and I know my way around tech. Yet, I still find the learning curve relatively steep. Now, take a look at something like Youtube and Reddit posts, and you'll see people are completely lost and just grasping at the first functional solution, without knowing basic things like how to fund accounts, put in orders, move funds, how taxation works etc.
I agree. I think people need to go back a few years ago and remember when credit card switched from swiping to inserting a chip. The amount of people I saw complain about that, how slow and messy the rollout was with businesses switching payment methods, really makes me doubt how fast crypto transacting would be able to hit the masses. and that was just going from swiping to inserting a card that you already had...
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by YRT70 »

txhill wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:29 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:17 pm
OohLaLa wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:15 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:58 pm In all seriousness ... this is not a good time to be buying crypto. There are defined cycles and this bull market is well underway. Things are going to get insane but we have less than a year left in the cycle. You will wind up paying short-term capital gains on anything that really appreciates. I wanted to avoid the short term capital gains back in 2018 and a considerable amount of paper profits evaporate. I just continued to hold and buy add to my position during the bear market. This is where you will be able to make life changing amounts of money. Research and find good projects during bear markets. Do it when no one is talking about crypto at all.

And, when cycles end ... alts never really come back. Alts are doing well now but many of the old coins are nowhere near their BTC value from 4-5 years ago.

This is the most useful Twitter thread that you will ever find about this space:

https://twitter.com/SecretsOfCrypto/sta ... 98720?s=20
Yeah, there seem to be cycles strongly tied to the underlying tech (ex: BTC halving). I tried to bring this clear pattern up here, previously, but the only response I received is ridicule, by someone equating it with voodoo and traditional tech analysis (which I don't care about), completely bypassing the uniquenesss of it.

Thanks for the link and thanks for sharing how you dealt with the cycles (adding in during the bear), as it relates to important questions circling in my head: "How do I allocate funds to this, long-term? Simply add it to your total portfolio AA and rebalance regularly? Set aside a set amount and ride it out, no matter what? Should I try to simply jump off temporarily, when we get close to September 1st 2021, even if it means losing out on potential returns during a change from downtrend to uptrend?"

I know that the cycles aren't everything, as other material changes can take place and affect the course of things, but it's hard to ignore something so in your face.
There are clear cycles with this. There always were and there always will be. Look at that Twitter link. It tells you how to play things as coins rotate. You want to be overexposed to BTC when the cycle ends.
Thanks for the Twitter link. A lot of food for thought since my plan was just to keep buying ETH no matter what. Now I don't know what to do! Maybe have to rethink my approach--I have no interest in playing with alts other than Ether (if that's even considered an alt). It's clear crypto still goes through cycles although the fact that it is so predictable is really bizarre--surely with more institutional money / trading focus on the space the cycles would be different over time. But it sure seems like we are heading toward another peak / crash soon...
Slight correction, not trying to be flippant but good to keep in mind imo: It's clear crypto has been going through cycles in the past. It has been quite predictable. Whether the future will be similar is a huge guess. With the instream of serious institutional money, as you mention, things may become different.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by HomerJ »

The REAL problem for mass-adoption is that there is no mainstream REASON to use crypto-currency.

The only thing you can do with it now is trade.

The only reason most people are buying it is because they think it will make them rich.

Are you guys hoping we can get all normal people involved to keep the pyramid scheme going for a while longer and make you richer?

Or maybe the crypto community should come up with a few real-world applications that would be useful for the average Joe and they could generate some riches the right way.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by txhill »

YRT70 wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:32 am
txhill wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:29 pm Thanks for the Twitter link. A lot of food for thought since my plan was just to keep buying ETH no matter what. Now I don't know what to do! Maybe have to rethink my approach--I have no interest in playing with alts other than Ether (if that's even considered an alt). It's clear crypto still goes through cycles although the fact that it is so predictable is really bizarre--surely with more institutional money / trading focus on the space the cycles would be different over time. But it sure seems like we are heading toward another peak / crash soon...
Slight correction, not trying to be flippant but good to keep in mind imo: It's clear crypto has been going through cycles in the past. It has been quite predictable. Whether the future will be similar is a huge guess. With the instream of serious institutional money, as you mention, things may become different.
Definitely. Any truly predictable pattern will be arbitraged away, at least in a sufficiently efficient market. 100% not sure whether that will happen this cycle or way in the future or what...
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by bogledogle »

OohLaLa wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:03 am I think a lot of folks are underestimating how convoluted the crypto environment is.

We are far from mass adoption, because:
- There are plenty of new concepts to understand before being able to transact in a flexible manner (wallets, exchanges, fees of different operations on different networks etc.)
- There are plenty of actors (brokers, proper exchanges in decentralized and centralized form, different projects) which cause a lot of confusion. Add on top of that that not all services are available worldwide, with restrictions in different jurisdictions.
- Fees can easily become exorbitant for any small investors. The swings in fees and the differences between different networks + exchanges/ brokers can be significant. You're getting nickeled-and-dimed (or quartered-and-dollared, when you look at certain fees :shock:) almost every step of the way.

People can hand-wave these points away, because they've found a good workaround or combo for themselves, but that misses the point entirely: there are no one-stop shop solutions with mass accessibility, good pricing, flexibility (features and coin choice) and ease of use. Your average person is not going to dig this deep.

Most of the people out there are not tech-savy, and not financially literate, which is a really bad combination in the crypto finance space. I fit the profile of someone who should pick this up real easy: I have experience with traditional investment and I know my way around tech. Yet, I still find the learning curve relatively steep. Now, take a look at something like Youtube and Reddit posts, and you'll see people are completely lost and just grasping at the first functional solution, without knowing basic things like how to fund accounts, put in orders, move funds, how taxation works etc.

I second this. The Crypto ecosystem is too complex to navigate for folks who are not in the thick of it.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

YRT70 wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:32 am
Slight correction, not trying to be flippant but good to keep in mind imo: It's clear crypto has been going through cycles in the past. It has been quite predictable. Whether the future will be similar is a huge guess. With the instream of serious institutional money, as you mention, things may become different.
Rarely are exploitable patterns allowed to stay in place for long in efficient markets.

The more people know a pattern generates alpha, the less effective it gets over time.

Whatever pattern matching and cyclical investing alpha has worked in the past will get chiseled away by algos as more institutional money enters the space.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by GR8FUL-D »

Blueskies123 wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 10:27 am I agree 100%, and a lot of those people have money to invest once there are real ETFs in the market. I am 67 and no one my age knows anything about Crypto, which why I think we are still early in the adoption cycle. Of course there will be many huge swings so I am prepared to see 50% to 80% swings until it settles down.
With regards to whether or not crypto is overbought, that prices rise and fall in identifiable patterns, and that we are at the end of a bull run in crypto and a significant dip in prices should be reasonably expected sometime between now and the end of the year:

The general consensus seems to be that it's only a matter of time (and likely sooner rather than later) until crypto ETFs get approved in the United States. Assuming that ETFs do get approved, is it not a given that as soon as they are approved, a TON of money will get thrown them, and as a result prices of many coins (especially btc and eth) will automatically dramatically increase?

Or is the above (to use a poker or chess analogy) simply "Level 1" thinking?

Additionally, occasionally people make comments about "What happens if the U.S. government bans crypto?" I can't see that happening now, but if ETFs are approved, doesn't that essentially eliminate the possibility of any type of government-enforced crypto ban?

If crypto ETFs get approved, under what conditions would crypto prices NOT go higher??
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by banook »

HomerJ wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:35 am The REAL problem for mass-adoption is that there is no mainstream REASON to use crypto-currency.

The only thing you can do with it now is trade.

The only reason most people are buying it is because they think it will make them rich.

Are you guys hoping we can get all normal people involved to keep the pyramid scheme going for a while longer and make you richer?

Or maybe the crypto community should come up with a few real-world applications that would be useful for the average Joe and they could generate some riches the right way.
I think there may be numerous reasons to use it, but agree mass-adoption may be further than we think.

It isn't true that the only thing you can do with it is "trade" - unless a trade is payment for service/labor rendered. You can store data on file coin. You can "tip" or pay for "free" internet content (which might have been free in the past) with Brave Attention Token without having to go through the set up of TransferWise or PayPal. Although PayPal - you can certainly pay with crypto (I have done that for international web developers who prefer that method of payment). The remark may be - we already have a place to store data, we already have a way to pay or send money with through the banking system. Yes, but having used both - crypto is easier for me internationally, certainly with the many easy UIs and DeFi apps - and those are developing fast. So I guess, the easiest answer is to try it and see and compare. If you try it and hate it, well then you're probably right in your stance. If you don't have a use case for it now, then you are probably right in your stance.

There's major competition and collaboration afoot in this space, and competition is good for product development, innovation, and possible adoption. I'm not claiming it will happen. All devs could suddenly get bored and go to another sector. Or be incentivized to do that. The market will rule eventually.
Last edited by banook on Wed May 12, 2021 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Prahasaurus »

HomerJ wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:35 am The REAL problem for mass-adoption is that there is no mainstream REASON to use crypto-currency.

The only thing you can do with it now is trade.

The only reason most people are buying it is because they think it will make them rich.

Are you guys hoping we can get all normal people involved to keep the pyramid scheme going for a while longer and make you richer?
I'm not trading my dollars (USDC) on Aave. I'm depositing them. And earning an annual equivalent of [checks current rate] 11.84% !!! Let me repeat, right now I am earning 11.84% on my dollar deposits. There is over 18 billion USD at Aave right now, earning interest.
Or maybe the crypto community should come up with a few real-world applications that would be useful for the average Joe and they could generate some riches the right way.
How about replacing the local bank that is ripping you off, paying you .1% and laughing in your face? I would say that's a great real world application!

Good news is Aave's founder let it slip today that institutions are playing around on Aave, experimenting with it, learning. Aave created a safe space for them to test. It's just a mater of time before more companies and financial institutions start integrating to Aave directly. So perhaps soon your bank will off this option, too!
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

GR8FUL-D wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:48 am

With regards to whether or not crypto is overbought, that prices rise and fall in identifiable patterns, and that we are at the end of a bull run in crypto and a significant dip in prices should be reasonably expected sometime between now and the end of the year:
You might be right and I have no idea of the future.

But I would be surprised if a durable, exploitable, identifiable market pattern is allowed to persist perpetually.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

Prahasaurus wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:54 am
Good news is Aave's founder let it slip today that institutions are playing around on Aave, experimenting with it, learning. Aave created a safe space for them to test. It's just a mater of time before more companies and financial institutions start integrating to Aave directly. So perhaps soon your bank will off this option, too!
"Let it slip" -- like he did it by accident?

C'mon....

I'm not that naive.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by hilink73 »

k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:58 pm
OohLaLa wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:51 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:44 pm Just keep things simple and limited to the blue chips - ETH and BTC. Set regular weekly buys for yourself with money that you are comfortable losing.

You won't make insane gains with ETH and BTC like you can with new alts, but these two are a safe bet (or as safe as you can get in this space).

I adopted this strategy 4 years ago and I am currently contemplating retiring.
I'm afraid us folks late to the party won't get the chance to contemplate like you, anytime soon. haha :wink:

Congrats on the gains, btw! Good to have the freedom to ask that kind of question. :beer
In all seriousness ... this is not a good time to be buying crypto. There are defined cycles and this bull market is well underway. Things are going to get insane but we have less than a year left in the cycle. You will wind up paying short-term capital gains on anything that really appreciates. I wanted to avoid the short term capital gains back in 2018 and a considerable amount of paper profits evaporate. I just continued to hold and buy add to my position during the bear market. This is where you will be able to make life changing amounts of money. Research and find good projects during bear markets. Do it when no one is talking about crypto at all.

And, when cycles end ... alts never really come back. Alts are doing well now but many of the old coins are nowhere near their BTC value from 4-5 years ago.

This is the most useful Twitter thread that you will ever find about this space:

https://twitter.com/SecretsOfCrypto/sta ... 98720?s=20
Thanks for the link.
That's very interesting.

I'm mainly holding ETH since 2016 through highs and lows (and just sold some a few days ago).
I've also got some minor positions in BTC and Alt-Coins (very small comapred to my ETH position).

The question is always: at what stage are we now? :-)
And what Alts to buy (if any)? :-D


(Edited)
Last edited by hilink73 on Wed May 12, 2021 12:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by JonnyDVM »

hilink73 wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:08 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:58 pm
OohLaLa wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:51 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:44 pm Just keep things simple and limited to the blue chips - ETH and BTC. Set regular weekly buys for yourself with money that you are comfortable losing.

You won't make insane gains with ETH and BTC like you can with new alts, but these two are a safe bet (or as safe as you can get in this space).

I adopted this strategy 4 years ago and I am currently contemplating retiring.
I'm afraid us folks late to the party won't get the chance to contemplate like you, anytime soon. haha :wink:

Congrats on the gains, btw! Good to have the freedom to ask that kind of question. :beer
In all seriousness ... this is not a good time to be buying crypto. There are defined cycles and this bull market is well underway. Things are going to get insane but we have less than a year left in the cycle. You will wind up paying short-term capital gains on anything that really appreciates. I wanted to avoid the short term capital gains back in 2018 and a considerable amount of paper profits evaporate. I just continued to hold and buy add to my position during the bear market. This is where you will be able to make life changing amounts of money. Research and find good projects during bear markets. Do it when no one is talking about crypto at all.

And, when cycles end ... alts never really come back. Alts are doing well now but many of the old coins are nowhere near their BTC value from 4-5 years ago.

This is the most useful Twitter thread that you will ever find about this space:

https://twitter.com/SecretsOfCrypto/sta ... 98720?s=20
Thanks for the link.
That's very interesting.

I'm mainly holding ETH since 2016 through highs and lows (and just sold some a few days ago).
I've also got some minor positions in BTC and Alt-Coins (very small comapred to my ETH position).

The question is always: at what stage are we now? :-)
Well, people like me that were ardent anti-crypto are starting to flip and get in on the fun. So realistically, that probably means we’re close to collapse.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by TimeTheMarket »

Crypto is definitely not a bubble. :P https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/12/new-cry ... debut.html
This new cryptocurrency has people buzzing — its market value is at $35 billion in just 3 days
Raised $120 in funding and:
On Monday, the market value skyrocketed to over $90 billion (at a price of around $731), but within minutes the price fell, hitting as low as $18 billion (priced at about $146).
Username is not serious :)
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by OohLaLa »

hilink73 wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:08 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:58 pm [...]
This is the most useful Twitter thread that you will ever find about this space:
https://twitter.com/SecretsOfCrypto/sta ... 98720?s=20
Thanks for the link.
That's very interesting.

I'm mainly holding ETH since 2016 through highs and lows (and just sold some a few days ago).
I've also got some minor positions in BTC and Alt-Coins (very small comapred to my ETH position).

The question is always: at what stage are we now? :-)
I read the rest of the Twitter thread last night, and you can find in there:
- certain facts
- an interesting approach to trading crypto
- a lot of things that appear obvious, thanks to them being already in the past

No word on how to actually time the different described actions when it's all taking place in the present, though. I would say it's worth testing out, without going all-in on the approach. The cycle results seem to be getting diluted after each one, which is to be expected, and the appearance of things like funds (ETFs, CEFs) along with more institutional interest, will definitely dampen this even further.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by sid hartha »

HomerJ wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:35 am The REAL problem for mass-adoption is that there is no mainstream REASON to use crypto-currency.

The only thing you can do with it now is trade.

The only reason most people are buying it is because they think it will make them rich.

Are you guys hoping we can get all normal people involved to keep the pyramid scheme going for a while longer and make you richer?

Or maybe the crypto community should come up with a few real-world applications that would be useful for the average Joe and they could generate some riches the right way.
Does it need to get mass adoption? I mean not everyone plays the lottery but enough do that it exists. To me crypto is just another thing people can gamble on like lottery tickets etc.
Last edited by sid hartha on Wed May 12, 2021 12:33 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by nisiprius »

ChinchillaWhiplash wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 10:39 pmWell, maybe not the formal definition of an ETF.
There's nothing "formal" about it. It is not an ETF. ETFs have specific protections for investors. Just as a hedge fund is not a mutual fund, and an OTC stock is not a listed stock, GBTC is not an ETF. The difference may not matter if Greyscale is honest and if nothing too unusual happens.
It is a fund...
It is not a fund.
I see it as a weird hybrid fund.
It is not a fund. That is why it is called "Grayscale Bitcoin Trust," not "Grayscale Bitcoin Fund" or "Greyscale Bitcoin ETF."
Prahasaurus wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 11:43 pmThe USA is one of the very few countries without a crypto ETF.
In other words, there are currently no US crypto ETFs.
Fortunately, we should see crypto ETFs for US investors very soon.
If I had to guess, I would not be surprised if we do see them, but I wish crypto fans would quit jumping the gun.

1) It hasn't happened yet. When and if it does happen, I'm sure I'll learn about from a thread here in BH. And when and if it does happen, I will be glad to say "there is a US crypto ETF." But it hasn't happened now.

2) I don't have time now to pull up examples but people have been saying variations on "we will have crypto ETFs for US investors very soon" for seven years.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by bogledogle »

Prahasaurus wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:54 am
I'm not trading my dollars (USDC) on Aave. I'm depositing them. And earning an annual equivalent of [checks current rate] 11.84% !!! Let me repeat, right now I am earning 11.84% on my dollar deposits. There is over 18 billion USD at Aave right now, earning interest.
So, help me understand how this works out for the borrower. I looked up on aave.com that you can get 11.81 for your deposits ass a lender and the borrower pays 14.53% variable or 21.53% fixed.

Who pays that much and what is the utility - car loans, personal loans, real estate? Aren't banks cheaper than Aave?
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by hilink73 »

OohLaLa wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:18 pm
hilink73 wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:08 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:58 pm [...]
This is the most useful Twitter thread that you will ever find about this space:
https://twitter.com/SecretsOfCrypto/sta ... 98720?s=20
Thanks for the link.
That's very interesting.

I'm mainly holding ETH since 2016 through highs and lows (and just sold some a few days ago).
I've also got some minor positions in BTC and Alt-Coins (very small comapred to my ETH position).

The question is always: at what stage are we now? :-)
I read the rest of the Twitter thread last night, and you can find in there:
- certain facts
- an interesting approach to trading crypto
- a lot of things that appear obvious, thanks to them being already in the past

No word on how to actually time the different described actions when it's all taking place in the present, though. I would say it's worth testing out, without going all-in on the approach. The cycle results seem to be getting diluted after each one, which is to be expected, and the appearance of things like funds (ETFs, CEFs) along with more institutional interest, will definitely dampen this even further.
Yes, good point. (As always, the secret sauce isn't available, lol).
Good article nonetheless, as I never looked at cycles, just bought and hold.

Now, before reading this article my current plan was
1) buying some Alts for a few grand and ride the wave
2) continue holding my ETH until the next cycle

After reading, I'm thinking about selling more ETH (at the top), but I know that getting back into the market (having bought at $12, before the DAO debacle, hehe) will be much more difficult psychologically, I guess.


So, maybe I just sell some more and follow through with the Alts.

A list of Alts with price against BTC would be helpful.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by HomerJ »

Prahasaurus wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:54 am
HomerJ wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:35 am The REAL problem for mass-adoption is that there is no mainstream REASON to use crypto-currency.

The only thing you can do with it now is trade.

The only reason most people are buying it is because they think it will make them rich.

Are you guys hoping we can get all normal people involved to keep the pyramid scheme going for a while longer and make you richer?
I'm not trading my dollars (USDC) on Aave. I'm depositing them. And earning an annual equivalent of [checks current rate] 11.84% !!! Let me repeat, right now I am earning 11.84% on my dollar deposits. There is over 18 billion USD at Aave right now, earning interest.
Or maybe the crypto community should come up with a few real-world applications that would be useful for the average Joe and they could generate some riches the right way.
How about replacing the local bank that is ripping you off, paying you .1% and laughing in your face? I would say that's a great real world application!

Good news is Aave's founder let it slip today that institutions are playing around on Aave, experimenting with it, learning. Aave created a safe space for them to test. It's just a mater of time before more companies and financial institutions start integrating to Aave directly. So perhaps soon your bank will off this option, too!
There you go again, comparing AAVE with a FDIC-insured savings account. Either you don't understand the risks behind AAVE, or you do understand them, but you keep pushing people to take those risks while pretending they are as safe as FDIC-insured accounts.

This is why I think your posts are dangerous. Because either you don't understand something very basic and shouldn't posting on crypto at all. Or you do understand it, but are pushing a false narrative to pump up crypto and make yourself richer.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by txhill »

HomerJ wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:37 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:54 am
HomerJ wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:35 am The REAL problem for mass-adoption is that there is no mainstream REASON to use crypto-currency.

The only thing you can do with it now is trade.

The only reason most people are buying it is because they think it will make them rich.

Are you guys hoping we can get all normal people involved to keep the pyramid scheme going for a while longer and make you richer?
I'm not trading my dollars (USDC) on Aave. I'm depositing them. And earning an annual equivalent of [checks current rate] 11.84% !!! Let me repeat, right now I am earning 11.84% on my dollar deposits. There is over 18 billion USD at Aave right now, earning interest.
Or maybe the crypto community should come up with a few real-world applications that would be useful for the average Joe and they could generate some riches the right way.
How about replacing the local bank that is ripping you off, paying you .1% and laughing in your face? I would say that's a great real world application!

Good news is Aave's founder let it slip today that institutions are playing around on Aave, experimenting with it, learning. Aave created a safe space for them to test. It's just a mater of time before more companies and financial institutions start integrating to Aave directly. So perhaps soon your bank will off this option, too!
There you go again, comparing AAVE with a FDIC-insured savings account. Either you don't understand the risks behind AAVE, or you do understand them, but you keep pushing people to take those risks while pretending they are as safe as FDIC-insured accounts.

This is why I think your posts are dangerous. Because either you don't understand something very basic and shouldn't posting on crypto at all. Or you do understand it, but are pushing a false narrative to pump up crypto and make yourself richer.
He's merely pointing out to you for the 15th time that Aave is an example of a real world application. Whether you think it's worth the risk is up to you, maybe you view it more like a payday loan or a junk bond type of investment--not worth the risk. But billions of dollars are transacted on that single DeFi app alone. Ethereum generates tremendous revenue through DeFi and NFTs and it's a young space still. It's silly to keep repeating that there is "no mainstream reason" to use cryptocurrency still when there are obvious counterexamples already and probably more to come.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by JonnyDVM »

bogledogle wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:31 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:54 am
I'm not trading my dollars (USDC) on Aave. I'm depositing them. And earning an annual equivalent of [checks current rate] 11.84% !!! Let me repeat, right now I am earning 11.84% on my dollar deposits. There is over 18 billion USD at Aave right now, earning interest.
So, help me understand how this works out for the borrower. I looked up on aave.com that you can get 11.81 for your deposits ass a lender and the borrower pays 14.53% variable or 21.53% fixed.

Who pays that much and what is the utility - car loans, personal loans, real estate? Aren't banks cheaper than Aave?
You use the money to buy other cryptocurrency. No bank is going to lend you money for that.
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by HomerJ »

txhill wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:47 pm He's merely pointing out to you for the 15th time that Aave is an example of a real world application. Whether you think it's worth the risk is up to you, maybe you view it more like a payday loan or a junk bond type of investment--not worth the risk. But billions of dollars are transacted on that single DeFi app alone. Ethereum generates tremendous revenue through DeFi and NFTs and it's a young space still. It's silly to keep repeating that there is "no mainstream reason" to use cryptocurrency still when there are obvious counterexamples already and probably more to come.
That's not an application.

It's exactly like buying a junk bond with a high interest rate and corresponding high risk.

The ability to buy a junk bond is not a real-world application that will influence mass-adoption
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by New Providence »

JohnDindex wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 1:49 pm I happen to have 3 friends who are financial advisors. All 3 of them have told me a similar story in the last 30 days.
How did you end up with 3 friends who are financial advisors? Do you guys all work for the same firm? Maybe the 3 of them are talking about the same clients as supposed to different clients.

It is a pretty big coincidence the 3 to them have crypto clients. And even bigger coincidence that they told you the same story within the same period of time.

Uhm...are you being literal here or did you take poetic license with the truth to illustrate your point?
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by txhill »

HomerJ wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:52 pm
txhill wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:47 pm He's merely pointing out to you for the 15th time that Aave is an example of a real world application. Whether you think it's worth the risk is up to you, maybe you view it more like a payday loan or a junk bond type of investment--not worth the risk. But billions of dollars are transacted on that single DeFi app alone. Ethereum generates tremendous revenue through DeFi and NFTs and it's a young space still. It's silly to keep repeating that there is "no mainstream reason" to use cryptocurrency still when there are obvious counterexamples already and probably more to come.
That's not an application.

It's exactly like buying a junk bond with a high interest rate and corresponding high risk.

The ability to buy a junk bond is not a real-world application that will influence mass-adoption
Mass adoption can come from a lot of corners. Easily obtainable high interest loans is just one example (look at how many keep high credit card balances, or look at payday loans, pawn shops, junk bonds). But NFTs are a growing example too especially for the entertainment industry, which currently is a huge middleman money sink. Just having a savings account that will pay more than nothing simply because the costs associated with it are far lower than banks that have to pay salaries of tellers and leases on brick and mortar locations that few ever visit. These are all incremental improvements on existing things that people use and want--and none of that covers potential other use cases we haven't fully explored yet (virtual worlds and NFT gaming etc.).
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Prahasaurus »

HomerJ wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:37 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:54 am
HomerJ wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:35 am The REAL problem for mass-adoption is that there is no mainstream REASON to use crypto-currency.

The only thing you can do with it now is trade.

The only reason most people are buying it is because they think it will make them rich.

Are you guys hoping we can get all normal people involved to keep the pyramid scheme going for a while longer and make you richer?
I'm not trading my dollars (USDC) on Aave. I'm depositing them. And earning an annual equivalent of [checks current rate] 11.84% !!! Let me repeat, right now I am earning 11.84% on my dollar deposits. There is over 18 billion USD at Aave right now, earning interest.
Or maybe the crypto community should come up with a few real-world applications that would be useful for the average Joe and they could generate some riches the right way.
How about replacing the local bank that is ripping you off, paying you .1% and laughing in your face? I would say that's a great real world application!

Good news is Aave's founder let it slip today that institutions are playing around on Aave, experimenting with it, learning. Aave created a safe space for them to test. It's just a mater of time before more companies and financial institutions start integrating to Aave directly. So perhaps soon your bank will off this option, too!
There you go again, comparing AAVE with a FDIC-insured savings account. Either you don't understand the risks behind AAVE, or you do understand them, but you keep pushing people to take those risks while pretending they are as safe as FDIC-insured accounts.

This is why I think your posts are dangerous. Because either you don't understand something very basic and shouldn't posting on crypto at all. Or you do understand it, but are pushing a false narrative to pump up crypto and make yourself richer.
Homer, one of your recent posts showed you don't really understand how crypto wallets work, something that is basic to crypto. No problem, it's fine, there is a learning curve, nothing to be ashamed about. But even though you don't understand that, now you are an expert on Aave and associated risks? How?

Show me where I wrote "FDIC" in my post? You are once again arguing with ghosts here (ironically, Aave means "ghost" in Finnish)... I'm sure the institutions that are testing now on Aave are doing their own due diligence. And when your bank offers you the option to earn more interest through Aave (something that might happen sooner than you think!), you can always say no.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

JonnyDVM wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:47 pm

You use the money to buy other cryptocurrency. No bank is going to lend you money for that.
You might be able to game it with a cash advance from your CC to your checking account, then transfer to the crypto exchange, then get AAVE loan on top of that.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by JonnyDVM »

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 1:01 pm
JonnyDVM wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:47 pm

You use the money to buy other cryptocurrency. No bank is going to lend you money for that.
You might be able to game it with a cash advance from your CC to your checking account, then transfer to the crypto exchange, then get AAVE loan on top of that.
That’s a great idea! Why didn’t I think of that !
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by JonnyDVM »

Prahasaurus wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:59 pm
HomerJ wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:37 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:54 am
HomerJ wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:35 am The REAL problem for mass-adoption is that there is no mainstream REASON to use crypto-currency.

The only thing you can do with it now is trade.

The only reason most people are buying it is because they think it will make them rich.

Are you guys hoping we can get all normal people involved to keep the pyramid scheme going for a while longer and make you richer?
I'm not trading my dollars (USDC) on Aave. I'm depositing them. And earning an annual equivalent of [checks current rate] 11.84% !!! Let me repeat, right now I am earning 11.84% on my dollar deposits. There is over 18 billion USD at Aave right now, earning interest.
Or maybe the crypto community should come up with a few real-world applications that would be useful for the average Joe and they could generate some riches the right way.
How about replacing the local bank that is ripping you off, paying you .1% and laughing in your face? I would say that's a great real world application!

Good news is Aave's founder let it slip today that institutions are playing around on Aave, experimenting with it, learning. Aave created a safe space for them to test. It's just a mater of time before more companies and financial institutions start integrating to Aave directly. So perhaps soon your bank will off this option, too!
There you go again, comparing AAVE with a FDIC-insured savings account. Either you don't understand the risks behind AAVE, or you do understand them, but you keep pushing people to take those risks while pretending they are as safe as FDIC-insured accounts.

This is why I think your posts are dangerous. Because either you don't understand something very basic and shouldn't posting on crypto at all. Or you do understand it, but are pushing a false narrative to pump up crypto and make yourself richer.
Homer, one of your recent posts showed you don't really understand how crypto wallets work, something that is basic to crypto. No problem, it's fine, there is a learning curve, nothing to be ashamed about. But even though you don't understand that, now you are an expert on Aave and associated risks? How?

Show me where I wrote "FDIC" in my post? You are once again arguing with ghosts here (ironically, Aave means "ghost" in Finnish)... I'm sure the institutions that are testing now on Aave are doing their own due diligence. And when your bank offers you the option to earn more interest through Aave (something that might happen sooner than you think!), you can always say no.
Hey. Leave Homer alone. He’s concerned about a system paying out high levels of interest so that people can leverage themselves borrowing at even higher rates to turn around and buy risky assets. Pretty strait forward- if the borrowers default the whole system collapses. And the higher the rate the higher the likelihood of default. As I see it a massive default is a very, very, real possibility. Now in the meantime, I’ll just sit quietly and take in AAVE gains with shifty eyes on the lookout for the first hint of a rattle in this system.
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txhill
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by txhill »

I felt a little manic when I first bought some crypto, then a bit more manic when I started buying considerable amounts of crypto a few months ago. And now I can really feel the mania surging through my veins.

The top must be close!
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watchnerd
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

txhill wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 1:09 pm I felt a little manic when I first bought some crypto, then a bit more manic when I started buying considerable amounts of crypto a few months ago. And now I can really feel the mania surging through my veins.

The top must be close!
You bought too much. ;)

I'm emotionally assuming I'm going to lose six figures in crypto in the near term.
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Prahasaurus
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Prahasaurus »

txhill wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 1:09 pm I felt a little manic when I first bought some crypto, then a bit more manic when I started buying considerable amounts of crypto a few months ago. And now I can really feel the mania surging through my veins.

The top must be close!
There is no longer a "top" in the traditional sense. You are still thinking 2018, when the primary crypto was Bitcoin, a "commodity" like asset like gold, and few used or understood stablecoins. And plus we had the ICO boom and the need for all those projects that purchased ETH for their ICO to dump ETH to pay their employees. It was a very unique time.

Yes, there will be pull backs, some quite big, but you won't see an 80% fall like before, at least with Ethereum (no idea on meme coins like Bitcoin). There is too much utility now. The only thing that can change my opinion is a black swan event, e.g traditional financial markets tanking in a big way, some crazy geopolitical event, etc.

Relax and enjoy the ride. And you don't own enough ETH...
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txhill
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by txhill »

Prahasaurus wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 1:16 pm
txhill wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 1:09 pm I felt a little manic when I first bought some crypto, then a bit more manic when I started buying considerable amounts of crypto a few months ago. And now I can really feel the mania surging through my veins.

The top must be close!
There is no longer a "top" in the traditional sense. You are still thinking 2018, when the primary crypto was Bitcoin, a "commodity" like asset like gold, and few used or understood stablecoins. And plus we had the ICO boom and the need for all those projects that purchased ETH for their ICO to dump ETH to pay their employees. It was a very unique time.

Yes, there will be pull backs, some quite big, but you won't see an 80% fall like before, at least with Ethereum (no idea on meme coins like Bitcoin). There is too much utility now. The only thing that can change my opinion is a black swan event, e.g traditional financial markets tanking in a big way, some crazy geopolitical event, etc.

Relax and enjoy the ride. And you don't own enough ETH...
I think you're right that the cycles will be less pronounced going forward. But in some ways I suspect that Wall Street's increased involvement in crypto this cycle means they'll abandon ship even faster than retail alone would at the first sign of trouble. I have to admit I had a long term view of crypto when I got into it but I'm starting to think increasingly about the short term...
watchnerd wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 1:14 pm You bought too much. ;)

I'm emotionally assuming I'm going to lose six figures in crypto in the near term.
Almost assuredly too much. I'm in pretty deep at this point :)
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HomerJ
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by HomerJ »

Prahasaurus wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:59 pm
HomerJ wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:37 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:54 am
HomerJ wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:35 am The REAL problem for mass-adoption is that there is no mainstream REASON to use crypto-currency.

The only thing you can do with it now is trade.

The only reason most people are buying it is because they think it will make them rich.

Are you guys hoping we can get all normal people involved to keep the pyramid scheme going for a while longer and make you richer?
I'm not trading my dollars (USDC) on Aave. I'm depositing them. And earning an annual equivalent of [checks current rate] 11.84% !!! Let me repeat, right now I am earning 11.84% on my dollar deposits. There is over 18 billion USD at Aave right now, earning interest.
Or maybe the crypto community should come up with a few real-world applications that would be useful for the average Joe and they could generate some riches the right way.
How about replacing the local bank that is ripping you off, paying you .1% and laughing in your face? I would say that's a great real world application!

Good news is Aave's founder let it slip today that institutions are playing around on Aave, experimenting with it, learning. Aave created a safe space for them to test. It's just a mater of time before more companies and financial institutions start integrating to Aave directly. So perhaps soon your bank will off this option, too!
There you go again, comparing AAVE with a FDIC-insured savings account. Either you don't understand the risks behind AAVE, or you do understand them, but you keep pushing people to take those risks while pretending they are as safe as FDIC-insured accounts.

This is why I think your posts are dangerous. Because either you don't understand something very basic and shouldn't posting on crypto at all. Or you do understand it, but are pushing a false narrative to pump up crypto and make yourself richer.
Homer, one of your recent posts showed you don't really understand how crypto wallets work, something that is basic to crypto. No problem, it's fine, there is a learning curve, nothing to be ashamed about. But even though you don't understand that, now you are an expert on Aave and associated risks? How?

Show me where I wrote "FDIC" in my post? You are once again arguing with ghosts here (ironically, Aave means "ghost" in Finnish)... I'm sure the institutions that are testing now on Aave are doing their own due diligence. And when your bank offers you the option to earn more interest through Aave (something that might happen sooner than you think!), you can always say no.
Not writing FDIC when talking about the .1% bank account is the POINT.

You didn't write FDIC in your post on purpose because then people would recognize the false comparison you were making.

The false comparison that you make every single day on these boards.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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