U.S. stocks in free fall

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cos
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by cos »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 2:20 pm You do you, but I'd be concerned if I were slashing equities to pay bills. You mentioned quarterly rebalancing, which seems to imply you have some fixed income? Why aren't you paying bills out of fixed income :confused
To continuously maintain my desired asset allocation, of course! You're correct that I have some fixed income (TMF), but I guess I should have explicitly stated that I rebalance with inflows and outflows in addition to rebalancing quarterly. Sometimes I buy/sell UPRO, sometimes I buy/sell TMF. Whatever keeps my allocation where I want it. I set my desired allocation, and the automation takes care of the rest. Market movements are typically much larger than these flows, though, so manual quarterly rebalancing is necessary to really keep things in check.

Looking over my transaction history, it seems like I'm more often selling UPRO and buying TMF in the current market environment. However, since I was already near my desired allocation, when the market went up yesterday, I ended up selling UPRO to fund my expenses, and when it went back down today, I ended up buying it back with the new income. This rarely happens which is why I felt inspired to post about it in the first place!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

cos wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 3:33 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 2:20 pm You do you, but I'd be concerned if I were slashing equities to pay bills. You mentioned quarterly rebalancing, which seems to imply you have some fixed income? Why aren't you paying bills out of fixed income :confused
To continuously maintain my desired asset allocation, of course! You're correct that I have some fixed income (TMF), but I guess I should have explicitly stated that I rebalance with inflows and outflows in addition to rebalancing quarterly. Sometimes I buy/sell UPRO, sometimes I buy/sell TMF. Whatever keeps my allocation where I want it. I set my desired allocation, and the automation takes care of the rest. Market movements are typically much larger than these flows, though, so manual quarterly rebalancing is necessary to really keep things in check.

Looking over my transaction history, it seems like I'm more often selling UPRO and buying TMF in the current market environment. However, since I was already near my desired allocation, when the market went up yesterday, I ended up selling UPRO to fund my expenses, and when it went back down today, I ended up buying it back with the new income. This rarely happens which is why I felt inspired to post about it in the first place!
Thanks for the explanation. It makes sense now. Your method is different from mine in that I already have enough cash out to pay bills coming my way, as I'm not a big fan of expenses dictating my rebalancing. Once I start withdrawing, I'd be nudging my AA via withdrawals but I'm not there yet.
Last edited by Marseille07 on Tue May 04, 2021 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 »

Visitor76 wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 12:20 pm
abuss368 wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 11:50 am
Ajcorpus wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 10:51 am NASDAQ down 2.5%?! What gives. I thought tech crushed earnings last two weeks.
International down more than US! Run!

Tony
The market is freaking out over Yellen's comments on their need to raise interest rates to prevent the economy from "overheating".
I know. In many respects the 10 year Treasury has been steadily increasing over the past year.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pokebowl »

It was a RBD for the majority of my portfolio. On the other hand, my dogecoin holdings are now up over 25,000% since I threw a couple bucks at it way back when :greedy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by UpperNwGuy »

It was a normal down day for my portfolio. I have up days and down days. Haven't had a really bad day since March 2020.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lazynovice »

Looks like Yellen is softening her statement...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-polic ... t-economy/

Let’s see what happens tomorrow. Of course I bought international so I did not benefit from this misunderstanding as others likely did.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

lazynovice wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 5:47 pm Looks like Yellen is softening her statement...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-polic ... t-economy/

Let’s see what happens tomorrow. Of course I bought international so I did not benefit from this misunderstanding as others likely did.
So, now that we have the Bloomberg headline, "Yellen Clarifies Inflation Remark, Sees No Need for Fed to Hike" will everything reverse tomorrow from what happened today?
"I think we may see a return to full employment next year." -- Janet Yellen, March 23rd 2021
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

Robot Monster wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 5:51 pm
So, now that we have the Bloomberg headline, "Yellen Clarifies Inflation Remark, Sees No Need for Fed to Hike" will everything reverse tomorrow from what happened today?
Futures as of now don’t seem inclined to reverse. They’re flat right now.

Of course, it’s more than 14 hours until the market opens tomorrow morning.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by chris319 »

I'm going bargain hunting!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Visitor76 »

Stinky wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 6:00 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 5:51 pm
So, now that we have the Bloomberg headline, "Yellen Clarifies Inflation Remark, Sees No Need for Fed to Hike" will everything reverse tomorrow from what happened today?
Futures as of now don’t seem inclined to reverse. They’re flat right now.

Of course, it’s more than 14 hours until the market opens tomorrow morning.
Futures are steadily rising. Let's hope today was an isolated incident and not a trend... historically May tends to be a down month.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corp_sharecropper »

Not a bad day thanks to my small cap value, leveraged treasuries, commodities, and liquid alts/managed futures. It's not Boglehead canon, that's for sure, but I think bogleheads would do well to have a more open mind, at least for some slice of the pie, beyond TSM equities/bonds, which of course has a tailwind of 40 years of recency bias.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by OohLaLa »

Visitor76 wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 9:12 pm
Stinky wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 6:00 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 5:51 pm
So, now that we have the Bloomberg headline, "Yellen Clarifies Inflation Remark, Sees No Need for Fed to Hike" will everything reverse tomorrow from what happened today?
Futures as of now don’t seem inclined to reverse. They’re flat right now.

Of course, it’s more than 14 hours until the market opens tomorrow morning.
Futures are steadily rising. Let's hope today was an isolated incident and not a trend... historically May tends to be a down month.
We just need Yellen and JPow to hold hands while chanting the Latin incantation to undo her dark work of today: "inflatio nullo, intereso nullo, redit dominantur!!!" *all the glass at NYSE shatters* :mrgreen:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by csmath »

Visitor76 wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 9:12 pm
Stinky wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 6:00 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 5:51 pm
So, now that we have the Bloomberg headline, "Yellen Clarifies Inflation Remark, Sees No Need for Fed to Hike" will everything reverse tomorrow from what happened today?
Futures as of now don’t seem inclined to reverse. They’re flat right now.

Of course, it’s more than 14 hours until the market opens tomorrow morning.
Futures are steadily rising. Let's hope today was an isolated incident and not a trend... historically May tends to be a down month.
Source? I don't think this is true. It sounds like something that gets repeated so many times that it becomes "known".

For example, according to https://www.yardeni.com/pub/stmktreturns.pdf:
  • Since 1928 the S&P500 has been up 54 years and down 39
  • Average % change since 1929 has been -0.1% (not convincing)
According to http://moneychimp.com/features/monthly_returns.htm:
  • Since 1950 the S&P500 has been up 42 years and down 29
  • Average % change since 1950 has been +0.17% (not convincing)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ricchan »

I didn't know this until I looked it up just now, but the "sell in May and go away" adage refers to the 6-month period from May to October. Apparently you're supposed to buy back in November.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lazynovice »

Ricchan wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 9:57 pm I didn't know this until I looked it up just now, but the "sell in May and go away" adage refers to the 6-month period from May to October. Apparently you're supposed to buy back in November.
Bad advice in almost every year of the last 20 from what I can tell.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocktrader »

Volatility continues but look at the timing of OP and look at where the market is today. Doesn't matter if you were investing in things like penny stocks or large-caps, the last year alone has been incredible. Now, I'm not one to "time the market" but when you get big dips, more times than not, they usually are opportunities to at the very least, take a starter or teaser position in my opinion.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Hyperchicken »

What's up, bear gang. Amazingly, I had to dig down to page 3 of the forum to find this thread.

As of this moment, S&P is down 0.65%, and NASDAQ is down 2.3%. Looks like proper free fall is shaping up!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

A good opportunity to buy the dip in my opinion. NASDAQ -2.23% is juicy.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ApeAttack »

Hyperchicken wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 1:34 pm What's up, bear gang. Amazingly, I had to dig down to page 3 of the forum to find this thread.

As of this moment, S&P is down 0.65%, and NASDAQ is down 2.3%. Looks like proper free fall is shaping up!
Is it time to panic sell yet?
Just another lazy index investor who recently found out about I-Bonds (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm).
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

This is a weird market. I understand the "re-opening" trade and all, but a lot of these re-opening stocks are now higher than they were before the pandemic and we have no idea how the demand will actually rebound. And you're seeing some great tech companies sell off pretty hard as if we won't be using tech in this brave new world.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thenextguy »

atdharris wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 1:43 pm This is a weird market. I understand the "re-opening" trade and all, but a lot of these re-opening stocks are now higher than they were before the pandemic and we have no idea how the demand will actually rebound. And you're seeing some great tech companies sell off pretty hard as if we won't be using tech in this brave new world.
People finally started looking at valuations.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

thenextguy wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 1:56 pm
atdharris wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 1:43 pm This is a weird market. I understand the "re-opening" trade and all, but a lot of these re-opening stocks are now higher than they were before the pandemic and we have no idea how the demand will actually rebound. And you're seeing some great tech companies sell off pretty hard as if we won't be using tech in this brave new world.
People finally started looking at valuations.


According to Bloomberg, Nasdaq is selling off because of inflation angst.
"I think we may see a return to full employment next year." -- Janet Yellen, March 23rd 2021
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

Late day melt down on the S&P.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 1:36 pm A good opportunity to buy the dip in my opinion. NASDAQ -2.23% is juicy.
You inspired me to rebalance into my China ETF, FLCH, as it was down the same juicy amount.
"I think we may see a return to full employment next year." -- Janet Yellen, March 23rd 2021
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Robot Monster wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 3:06 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 1:36 pm A good opportunity to buy the dip in my opinion. NASDAQ -2.23% is juicy.
You inspired me to rebalance into my China ETF, FLCH, as it was down the same juicy amount.
Yeah the trick is to just buy up whichever assets that got cheaper. Of course, *eventually* the cheaper assets would have to make a rebound.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Broken Man 1999 »

Ha!

Everything in the red except my GE stock, it squeezed out a $.05/share gain. So my 1000 shares of GE offset my other holdings losses by $50. Whew! Glad I had some safe ballast in my portfolio.

Yee Haw!

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

Bloomberg just reported, "Asia Stocks to Track U.S. Slide on Inflation Angst".

"The run-up in raw materials is intensifying debate ahead of a U.S. CPI report Wednesday that is forecast to show a strong gain in April. The year-on-year reading will be amplified by the pandemic shock a year earlier, but it plays into a broader market concern that the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates sooner than current guidance suggest to contain inflation." link

"Japan’s Nikkei 225 falls 2.2% after U.S. stocks decline overnight" link
Last edited by Robot Monster on Mon May 10, 2021 8:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

Well, my alts (crypto, gold) are green today at least....
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pokebowl »

Inflation appears to be the driving factor of the week's freakout, at least until Wednesday.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

pokebowl wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 5:45 pm Inflation appears to be the driving factor of the week's freakout, at least until Wednesday.
what happens on Wed?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ApeAttack »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:05 pm
pokebowl wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 5:45 pm Inflation appears to be the driving factor of the week's freakout, at least until Wednesday.
what happens on Wed?
Inflation will the driving factor in a 2% gain in SPY.
Just another lazy index investor who recently found out about I-Bonds (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm).
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

SPX futures already -0.5%. Could be another ugly day.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:05 pm
pokebowl wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 5:45 pm Inflation appears to be the driving factor of the week's freakout, at least until Wednesday.
what happens on Wed?
CPI due Wednesday is 3.6 % consensus, 2.9 % to 3.8 % consensus range. link
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JonnyDVM »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:56 pm SPX futures already -0.5%. Could be another ugly day.
Getting my buying gloves ready
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

JonnyDVM wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 9:09 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:56 pm SPX futures already -0.5%. Could be another ugly day.
Getting my buying gloves ready
Nikkei -2.75% for some reason. I know they follow us but we weren't that bad...
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by anoop »

Those who are selling -- where are they putting their money?? 30-year bonds??
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by anoop »

JonnyDVM wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 9:09 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:56 pm SPX futures already -0.5%. Could be another ugly day.
Getting my buying gloves ready
I will buy more only after a 50% drop (which is never gonna happen) or the gains on my current investment are up 20% (looking for that to happen before the end of the year).
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

anoop wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 9:39 pm Those who are selling -- where are they putting their money?? 30-year bonds??
RE and crypto.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by anoop »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 10:06 pm
anoop wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 9:39 pm Those who are selling -- where are they putting their money?? 30-year bonds??
RE and crypto.
Crypto fell so not sure that holds. RE very possible. But if we hyperinflate, how will people pay to maintain their properties? They aren’t going to find renters that can keep up.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

anoop wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 10:12 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 10:06 pm
anoop wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 9:39 pm Those who are selling -- where are they putting their money?? 30-year bonds??
RE and crypto.
Crypto fell so not sure that holds. RE very possible. But if we hyperinflate, how will people pay to maintain their properties? They aren’t going to find renters that can keep up.
We probably won't hyperinflate: "hyperinflation is rapidly rising inflation, typically measuring more than 50% per month."
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by anoop »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 10:14 pm
anoop wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 10:12 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 10:06 pm
anoop wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 9:39 pm Those who are selling -- where are they putting their money?? 30-year bonds??
RE and crypto.
Crypto fell so not sure that holds. RE very possible. But if we hyperinflate, how will people pay to maintain their properties? They aren’t going to find renters that can keep up.
We probably won't hyperinflate: "hyperinflation is rapidly rising inflation, typically measuring more than 50% per month."
Not now. That will take 5-10 years to happen according to Burry’s tweets about how we are going Weimar.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

Robot Monster wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 8:41 pm
watchnerd wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:05 pm
pokebowl wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 5:45 pm Inflation appears to be the driving factor of the week's freakout, at least until Wednesday.
what happens on Wed?
CPI due Wednesday is 3.6 % consensus, 2.9 % to 3.8 % consensus range. link
Versus a year ago when everything was depressed....

Nothing to see here, folks.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 7eight9 »

Ricchan wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 9:57 pm I didn't know this until I looked it up just now, but the "sell in May and go away" adage refers to the 6-month period from May to October. Apparently you're supposed to buy back in November.
St. Leger's Day (September 15) is the proper day to come back.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by anoop »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 10:35 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 8:41 pm
watchnerd wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:05 pm
pokebowl wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 5:45 pm Inflation appears to be the driving factor of the week's freakout, at least until Wednesday.
what happens on Wed?
CPI due Wednesday is 3.6 % consensus, 2.9 % to 3.8 % consensus range. link
Versus a year ago when everything was depressed....

Nothing to see here, folks.
Ordinarily I would have agreed, but every company is complaining of it (has never happened in the last decade as far as I recall), and there’s the whole labor shortage thing with companies announcing raises. The commodity spike has been spectacular and unless the fed crashes the markets, I don't think commodities will drop.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

Look out below!

Futures are pointing to a rough day for equities.

Really rough!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by livesoft »

I haven't noticed an RBD since 4/20 when AVUV dropped and then went up about 10% in about 2 weeks. It would be nice to have another RBD soon-ish.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town »

Yeah it would be nice. I don’t mind another “healthy” 20-40% drop. Those drops are good for long term return.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LINY »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 10:06 pm
anoop wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 9:39 pm Those who are selling -- where are they putting their money?? 30-year bonds??
RE and crypto.
Could these tech workers be liquidating RSUs in order to overbid on homes?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by smalliebigs »

I didn't believe, so early in my investing timeline, would I actually see the benefits of buying VTI. Every once in a while, looking at NASDAQ or QQQ, I think, "should I have weighted more into tech stocks? Tech is everywhere in our lives, right?"

I'm glad I stuck to VTI. Everything corrects itself back to the mean.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

I don't think this is a period of prolonged tech dragging down the market. Arguably the most successful companies in the world are tech companies and they continue to grow. This hurts right now, but it won't last forever. There will be a rotation back to tech, probably once we hit correction territory.
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