Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

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Nathan Drake
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Nathan Drake »

anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 1:24 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 1:07 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 1:03 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 12:46 pm
RJC wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:36 am My 100% VTSAX and EF two-fund portfolio has been good to me. High savings rate with a simple, efficient asset allocation is what matters most IMO.

One more year until we reach our number at this rate. :beer
Would hate to reach the number and call it quits only to be so highly concentrated into two asset classes incredibly overpriced/valued that your SORR is extremely high. You can't rely on savings rate when you are no longer earning income.

What was good for you in the very recent past may not be so in the future.
International equities is not going to save your butt, bonds might. You need some bonds to help avoid SORR.

With enough bonds by retirement SORR is never going to be an issue.
International equities could "save his butt". The type of SORR risk we are discussing is not short term market shocks that correlate market performance. It's the long-term divergence of returns. Again, 2000-2009 was a horrible period for US TSM only investors. It was quite fine for international or SCV.

Bonds, I'm afraid, are unlikely to save you either given where we currently stand. That's a huge risk for someone investing in this two fund portfolio when yields are so ridiculously low. Yields were a lot higher during the early 00s which made the SORR not quite so bad.

But yes....if you have enough bonds and your SWR is obscenely low, maybe this strategy will work fine. I would rather not have a 2% SWR or less when a more diversified portfolio will be more in line with historical averages.
2000-2009 was not great for any US TSM or Int'l. While it is true that Int'l had a CAGR that 2% higher, it was not gangbusters.

While Bond yields are low, they are not zero. I Bonds pay a nice 3.54% APY now. Long term treasuries pay over 2% for someone who has saved a fortune and expects to live another 30+ years, bonds can help avoid SORR.

I am not against international, but I think ones asset allocation to bonds will have a greater importance when trying to avoid SORR than your US to Int'l equity ratio. To say otherwise is overselling the diversification value of international equities.
It is not overselling the benefits. You can look through prior periods with greater CAGR (60-70s, example). The delta will not be knowable in advance

If inflation is running 2%, bonds yield just in line with inflation, and US TSM has negative real rates of return, having a portion of your portfolio that has higher expected returns (due to lower valuations), will be important to hold.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 »

anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 1:24 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 1:07 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 1:03 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 12:46 pm
RJC wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:36 am My 100% VTSAX and EF two-fund portfolio has been good to me. High savings rate with a simple, efficient asset allocation is what matters most IMO.

One more year until we reach our number at this rate. :beer
Would hate to reach the number and call it quits only to be so highly concentrated into two asset classes incredibly overpriced/valued that your SORR is extremely high. You can't rely on savings rate when you are no longer earning income.

What was good for you in the very recent past may not be so in the future.
International equities is not going to save your butt, bonds might. You need some bonds to help avoid SORR.

With enough bonds by retirement SORR is never going to be an issue.
International equities could "save his butt". The type of SORR risk we are discussing is not short term market shocks that correlate market performance. It's the long-term divergence of returns. Again, 2000-2009 was a horrible period for US TSM only investors. It was quite fine for international or SCV.

Bonds, I'm afraid, are unlikely to save you either given where we currently stand. That's a huge risk for someone investing in this two fund portfolio when yields are so ridiculously low. Yields were a lot higher during the early 00s which made the SORR not quite so bad.

But yes....if you have enough bonds and your SWR is obscenely low, maybe this strategy will work fine. I would rather not have a 2% SWR or less when a more diversified portfolio will be more in line with historical averages.
2000-2009 was not great for any US TSM or Int'l. While it is true that Int'l had a CAGR that 2% higher, it was not gangbusters.

While Bond yields are low, they are not zero. I Bonds pay a nice 3.54% APY now. Long term treasuries pay over 2% for someone who has saved a fortune and expects to live another 30+ years, bonds can help avoid SORR.

I am not against international, but I think ones asset allocation to bonds will have a greater importance when trying to avoid SORR than your US to Int'l equity ratio. To say otherwise is overselling the diversification value of international equities.
I agree. International appears to rise and fall with US anymore. Often falls more than US. At one time it may have been different.

Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by 1789 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 12:55 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 12:49 pm
1789 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 12:38 pm
RJC wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:36 am My 100% VTSAX and EF two-fund portfolio has been good to me. High savings rate with a simple, efficient asset allocation is what matters most IMO.

One more year until we reach our number at this rate. :beer
This is our strategy as well. Glad to see its working for you.
Hi 1789 -

You have a winning strategy. Your portfolio will never be below average!

Bogleheads are learning and it is exciting to see the number of posts moving to a simple strategy as Mr. Bogle recommended!

Best.
Tony
Your portfolio will never be below average! Except when it underperforms and is below average.

Why do you keep spouting something that is demonstrably false?
It is a bet that US would do better over my investing timeframe 30 years or so. Since it is a bet it may or may not hold true. Having some international is not a bad idea imo. Everyone should decide on their own for their portfolio.
"My conscience wants vegetarianism to win over the world. And my subconscious is yearning for a piece of juicy meat. But what do i want?" (Andrei Tarkovsky)
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by anon_investor »

1789 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 2:05 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 12:55 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 12:49 pm
1789 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 12:38 pm
RJC wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:36 am My 100% VTSAX and EF two-fund portfolio has been good to me. High savings rate with a simple, efficient asset allocation is what matters most IMO.

One more year until we reach our number at this rate. :beer
This is our strategy as well. Glad to see its working for you.
Hi 1789 -

You have a winning strategy. Your portfolio will never be below average!

Bogleheads are learning and it is exciting to see the number of posts moving to a simple strategy as Mr. Bogle recommended!

Best.
Tony
Your portfolio will never be below average! Except when it underperforms and is below average.

Why do you keep spouting something that is demonstrably false?
It is a bet that US would do better over my investing timeframe 30 years or so. Since it is a bet it may or may not hold true. Having some international is not a bad idea imo. Everyone should decide on their own for their portfolio.
Well said. :sharebeer
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by SteadyOne »

Does it make sense to use Stable Fund as a component of a bond part or instead of it? I have vanguard index bond fund as well as stable value fund that pays 1.42%.

+ all inside 401k
Last edited by SteadyOne on Sat May 08, 2021 2:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by 1789 »

SteadyOne wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 2:15 pm Does it make sense to use Stable Fund as a component of a bond part or instead of it? I have vanguard index bond fund as well as stable value fund that pays 1.42%.
To me, it is a good idea if stable value is inside a 401k/IRAs.
"My conscience wants vegetarianism to win over the world. And my subconscious is yearning for a piece of juicy meat. But what do i want?" (Andrei Tarkovsky)
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 12:49 pm Hi 1789 -

You have a winning strategy. Your portfolio will never be below average!

Bogleheads are learning and it is exciting to see the number of posts moving to a simple strategy as Mr. Bogle recommended!

Best.
Tony
Mr. Tony, perhaps you missed this post above. If the goal is "simplicity," then adding an international fund to Vanguard Balanced Index solves the "we only want 2 funds" requirement. If the investor intentionally wants to eschew international equities, then Balanced Index (1 fund) or TSM + TBM (2 funds) solves that requirement.

Precisely what to you mean by "your portfolio will never be below average?" If you mean the individual funds (TSM, TBM, or indexed international equities fund) then it's axiomatic that they track their benchmarks and hardly worth mentioning.

But average is a statistical term. When you state "Both the Two Fund Portfolio and the Three Fund Portfolio will never be below average" to what set of funds have you compared these portfolios? What was the average 5- or 10- year returns for those portfolios? Which database did you consult to determine the average returns for those funds?


"I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meager and unsatisfactory kind; it may be the beginning of knowledge, but you have scarcely, in your thoughts, advanced to the stage of science, whatever the matter may be." Sir William Thomson, Baron Kelvin
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by RJC »

abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 1:56 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 1:24 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 1:07 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 1:03 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 12:46 pm

Would hate to reach the number and call it quits only to be so highly concentrated into two asset classes incredibly overpriced/valued that your SORR is extremely high. You can't rely on savings rate when you are no longer earning income.

What was good for you in the very recent past may not be so in the future.
International equities is not going to save your butt, bonds might. You need some bonds to help avoid SORR.

With enough bonds by retirement SORR is never going to be an issue.
International equities could "save his butt". The type of SORR risk we are discussing is not short term market shocks that correlate market performance. It's the long-term divergence of returns. Again, 2000-2009 was a horrible period for US TSM only investors. It was quite fine for international or SCV.

Bonds, I'm afraid, are unlikely to save you either given where we currently stand. That's a huge risk for someone investing in this two fund portfolio when yields are so ridiculously low. Yields were a lot higher during the early 00s which made the SORR not quite so bad.

But yes....if you have enough bonds and your SWR is obscenely low, maybe this strategy will work fine. I would rather not have a 2% SWR or less when a more diversified portfolio will be more in line with historical averages.
2000-2009 was not great for any US TSM or Int'l. While it is true that Int'l had a CAGR that 2% higher, it was not gangbusters.

While Bond yields are low, they are not zero. I Bonds pay a nice 3.54% APY now. Long term treasuries pay over 2% for someone who has saved a fortune and expects to live another 30+ years, bonds can help avoid SORR.

I am not against international, but I think ones asset allocation to bonds will have a greater importance when trying to avoid SORR than your US to Int'l equity ratio. To say otherwise is overselling the diversification value of international equities.
I agree. International appears to rise and fall with US anymore. Often falls more than US. At one time it may have been different.

Tony
Just to clarify, we will reach FI in about a year but won't retire for another 15 years. By then I will glide bonds in or comparable fixed income to a comfortable allocation.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 »

SteadyOne wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 2:15 pm Does it make sense to use Stable Fund as a component of a bond part or instead of it? I have vanguard index bond fund as well as stable value fund that pays 1.42%.

+ all inside 401k
I think that is fine. Fixed income can include cash, CDs, Stable Value, bonds, etc.

Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Northern Flicker »

absolute zero wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:46 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:11 pm This is obvious, but one can incorporate international funds in a two-fund portfolio by using Vanguard Balanced Fund (60/40) and an international fund. https://tinyurl.com/yvp7n9v9
That’s right. There are many ways to build a simple 2 fund portfolio that don’t involve completely ditching 6,000 of the 9,000 investable equities around the world. The argument that holding 100% of equities in VTSAX is done “in the name of simplicity” is false.
Portfolios should be designed at the asset class level, then asset classes should be inplemented with fund products. It is never an optimal strategy to start with the premise of using N funds for some N. A US-only strategy might be implemented with 3 funds (S&P500, S&P Extended Market, total US bond index), 2 funds (total stock market index plus total US bond index) or 1 fund (balanced index fund) but they are just different implementations of the same portfolio.
My postings are my opinion, and never should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular investment.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by absolute zero »

Northern Flicker wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:26 pm
absolute zero wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:46 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:11 pm This is obvious, but one can incorporate international funds in a two-fund portfolio by using Vanguard Balanced Fund (60/40) and an international fund. https://tinyurl.com/yvp7n9v9
That’s right. There are many ways to build a simple 2 fund portfolio that don’t involve completely ditching 6,000 of the 9,000 investable equities around the world. The argument that holding 100% of equities in VTSAX is done “in the name of simplicity” is false.
Portfolios should be designed at the asset class level, then asset classes should be inplemented with fund products. It is never an optimal strategy to start with the premise of using N funds for some N. A US-only strategy might be implemented with 3 funds (S&P500, S&P Extended Market, total US bond index), 2 funds (total stock market index plus total US bond index) or 1 fund (balanced index fund) but they are just different implementations of the same portfolio.
“It is never an optimal strategy to start with the premise of using N funds for some N.”

I agree.

But since many in this thread claim that the benefits of the portfolio described in the OP come from its extremely low fund count (and associated simplicity) I think it’s worth pointing out that if an investor IS obsessed with holding only 2 funds in their portfolio, they can easily do so while still achieving global diversification. That was the purpose of my post.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Northern Flicker »

Jack Bogle's preferred implementation of the 2-asset-class market portfolio was with 1 fund (vbiax).
My postings are my opinion, and never should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular investment.
Nathan Drake
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Nathan Drake »

absolute zero wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:34 pm
Northern Flicker wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:26 pm
absolute zero wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:46 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:11 pm This is obvious, but one can incorporate international funds in a two-fund portfolio by using Vanguard Balanced Fund (60/40) and an international fund. https://tinyurl.com/yvp7n9v9
That’s right. There are many ways to build a simple 2 fund portfolio that don’t involve completely ditching 6,000 of the 9,000 investable equities around the world. The argument that holding 100% of equities in VTSAX is done “in the name of simplicity” is false.
Portfolios should be designed at the asset class level, then asset classes should be inplemented with fund products. It is never an optimal strategy to start with the premise of using N funds for some N. A US-only strategy might be implemented with 3 funds (S&P500, S&P Extended Market, total US bond index), 2 funds (total stock market index plus total US bond index) or 1 fund (balanced index fund) but they are just different implementations of the same portfolio.
“It is never an optimal strategy to start with the premise of using N funds for some N.”

I agree.

But since many in this thread claim that the benefits of the portfolio described in the OP come from its extremely low fund count (and associated simplicity) I think it’s worth pointing out that if an investor IS obsessed with holding only 2 funds in their portfolio, they can easily do so while still achieving global diversification. That was the purpose of my post.
If simplicity is the goal, then the best bet is a bog standard target date fund. Includes bonds, equities (foreign and international). The truly one fund portfolio.

This two fund portfolio as described in this thread is performance chasing, period. Been a long bull market in US stocks and bonds. That dance eventually ends whenever things get overvalued.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Nathan Drake wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:06 pm
absolute zero wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:34 pm
Northern Flicker wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:26 pm
absolute zero wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:46 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:11 pm This is obvious, but one can incorporate international funds in a two-fund portfolio by using Vanguard Balanced Fund (60/40) and an international fund. https://tinyurl.com/yvp7n9v9
That’s right. There are many ways to build a simple 2 fund portfolio that don’t involve completely ditching 6,000 of the 9,000 investable equities around the world. The argument that holding 100% of equities in VTSAX is done “in the name of simplicity” is false.
Portfolios should be designed at the asset class level, then asset classes should be inplemented with fund products. It is never an optimal strategy to start with the premise of using N funds for some N. A US-only strategy might be implemented with 3 funds (S&P500, S&P Extended Market, total US bond index), 2 funds (total stock market index plus total US bond index) or 1 fund (balanced index fund) but they are just different implementations of the same portfolio.
“It is never an optimal strategy to start with the premise of using N funds for some N.”

I agree.

But since many in this thread claim that the benefits of the portfolio described in the OP come from its extremely low fund count (and associated simplicity) I think it’s worth pointing out that if an investor IS obsessed with holding only 2 funds in their portfolio, they can easily do so while still achieving global diversification. That was the purpose of my post.
If simplicity is the goal, then the best bet is a bog standard target date fund. Includes bonds, equities (foreign and international). The truly one fund portfolio.

This two fund portfolio as described in this thread is performance chasing, period. Been a long bull market in US stocks and bonds. That dance eventually ends whenever things get overvalued.
Agreed. Simplicity is the justification used for performance chasing and lack of diversification.

Further, most people have various account types, rollovers, spouse plans, etc. and have to hold multiple funds in multiple accounts anyway, so it's not like holding international stocks in one of those accounts is any more difficult than holding U.S.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:06 pm
absolute zero wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:34 pm
Northern Flicker wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:26 pm
absolute zero wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:46 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:11 pm This is obvious, but one can incorporate international funds in a two-fund portfolio by using Vanguard Balanced Fund (60/40) and an international fund. https://tinyurl.com/yvp7n9v9
That’s right. There are many ways to build a simple 2 fund portfolio that don’t involve completely ditching 6,000 of the 9,000 investable equities around the world. The argument that holding 100% of equities in VTSAX is done “in the name of simplicity” is false.
Portfolios should be designed at the asset class level, then asset classes should be inplemented with fund products. It is never an optimal strategy to start with the premise of using N funds for some N. A US-only strategy might be implemented with 3 funds (S&P500, S&P Extended Market, total US bond index), 2 funds (total stock market index plus total US bond index) or 1 fund (balanced index fund) but they are just different implementations of the same portfolio.
“It is never an optimal strategy to start with the premise of using N funds for some N.”

I agree.

But since many in this thread claim that the benefits of the portfolio described in the OP come from its extremely low fund count (and associated simplicity) I think it’s worth pointing out that if an investor IS obsessed with holding only 2 funds in their portfolio, they can easily do so while still achieving global diversification. That was the purpose of my post.
If simplicity is the goal, then the best bet is a bog standard target date fund. Includes bonds, equities (foreign and international). The truly one fund portfolio.

This two fund portfolio as described in this thread is performance chasing, period. Been a long bull market in US stocks and bonds. That dance eventually ends whenever things get overvalued.
Not really. The beauty and simplicity of Jack Bogle’s Two Fund Portfolio is Total Stock and Total Bond. Many Bogleheads are learning that the portfolio will never be below average and are choosing to simplify. It is an encouraging trend.

The awesome books “Bogle on Mutual Funds” and Common Sense on Investing” explained in-depth the reasons. Check out the chapters called “Acres of Diamonds” and also “Global Investing”.

I would encourage you to read these books if you have not already done so! Jack Bogle knows more about investing then any of us EVER will.

Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:10 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:06 pm
absolute zero wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:34 pm
Northern Flicker wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:26 pm
absolute zero wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:46 pm

That’s right. There are many ways to build a simple 2 fund portfolio that don’t involve completely ditching 6,000 of the 9,000 investable equities around the world. The argument that holding 100% of equities in VTSAX is done “in the name of simplicity” is false.
Portfolios should be designed at the asset class level, then asset classes should be inplemented with fund products. It is never an optimal strategy to start with the premise of using N funds for some N. A US-only strategy might be implemented with 3 funds (S&P500, S&P Extended Market, total US bond index), 2 funds (total stock market index plus total US bond index) or 1 fund (balanced index fund) but they are just different implementations of the same portfolio.
“It is never an optimal strategy to start with the premise of using N funds for some N.”

I agree.

But since many in this thread claim that the benefits of the portfolio described in the OP come from its extremely low fund count (and associated simplicity) I think it’s worth pointing out that if an investor IS obsessed with holding only 2 funds in their portfolio, they can easily do so while still achieving global diversification. That was the purpose of my post.
If simplicity is the goal, then the best bet is a bog standard target date fund. Includes bonds, equities (foreign and international). The truly one fund portfolio.

This two fund portfolio as described in this thread is performance chasing, period. Been a long bull market in US stocks and bonds. That dance eventually ends whenever things get overvalued.
Agreed. Simplicity is the justification used for performance chasing and lack of diversification.

Further, most people have various account types, rollovers, spouse plans, etc. and have to hold multiple funds in multiple accounts anyway, so it's not like holding international stocks in one of those accounts is any more difficult than holding U.S.
Not really! It is all in what flavor icing one likes. You have your strategy and I’m and happy you do. Others prefer the Jack Bogle and Warren Buffett Two Fund Portfolio. There is no one size fits all. The good part is the portfolio will never be below average!

We all have choices.

Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Nathan Drake
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Nathan Drake »

abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:12 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:06 pm
absolute zero wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:34 pm
Northern Flicker wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:26 pm
absolute zero wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:46 pm

That’s right. There are many ways to build a simple 2 fund portfolio that don’t involve completely ditching 6,000 of the 9,000 investable equities around the world. The argument that holding 100% of equities in VTSAX is done “in the name of simplicity” is false.
Portfolios should be designed at the asset class level, then asset classes should be inplemented with fund products. It is never an optimal strategy to start with the premise of using N funds for some N. A US-only strategy might be implemented with 3 funds (S&P500, S&P Extended Market, total US bond index), 2 funds (total stock market index plus total US bond index) or 1 fund (balanced index fund) but they are just different implementations of the same portfolio.
“It is never an optimal strategy to start with the premise of using N funds for some N.”

I agree.

But since many in this thread claim that the benefits of the portfolio described in the OP come from its extremely low fund count (and associated simplicity) I think it’s worth pointing out that if an investor IS obsessed with holding only 2 funds in their portfolio, they can easily do so while still achieving global diversification. That was the purpose of my post.
If simplicity is the goal, then the best bet is a bog standard target date fund. Includes bonds, equities (foreign and international). The truly one fund portfolio.

This two fund portfolio as described in this thread is performance chasing, period. Been a long bull market in US stocks and bonds. That dance eventually ends whenever things get overvalued.
Not really. The beauty and simplicity of Jack Bogle’s Two Fund Portfolio is Total Stock and Total Bond. Many Bogleheads are learning that the portfolio will never be below average and are choosing to simplify. It is an encouraging trend.

The awesome books “Bogle on Mutual Funds” and Common Sense on Investing” explained in-depth the reasons. Check out the chapters called “Acres of Diamonds” and also “Global Investing”.

I would encourage you to read these books if you have not already done so! Jack Bogle knows more about investing then any of us EVER will.

Tony
Below average according to what metric? investing in only US stocks and US bonds? Ok, well yes, by that definition they will never be "below average" per that benchmark. But they could have a sustained period of downright awful performance that could have easily been diversified away with a better benchmark to value it against.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Triple digit golfer »

I was flipping through "Common Sense on Mutual Funds" today and it says something along the lines that an investor should decide for him or herself how much to allocate to international stocks. Even Bogle himself was not nearly as dogmatic as some posters make him out to have been.

I think Bogle would say to stick to whatever strategy you choose.

What do you all think Bogle would approve more of?

A) Holding a 3 fund portfolio and staying the course.

B) Holding a 3 fund portfolio and abandoning course and selling international after a decade of U.S. outperformance.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:37 pm I was flipping through "Common Sense on Mutual Funds" today and it says something along the lines that an investor should decide for him or herself how much to allocate to international stocks. Even Bogle himself was not nearly as dogmatic as some posters make him out to have been.

I think Bogle would say to stick to whatever strategy you choose.

What do you all think Bogle would approve more of?

A) Holding a 3 fund portfolio and staying the course.

B) Holdinf a 3 fund portfolio and abandoning course and selling international after a decade of U.S. outperformance.
It works for you, than awesome! Check out one of Mr. Bogle’s last interviews on YouTube. He states 40% to international stocks is too much and international bonds are not necessarily. He goes on to say international is not necessary.

Tony
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Triple digit golfer »

abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:39 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:37 pm I was flipping through "Common Sense on Mutual Funds" today and it says something along the lines that an investor should decide for him or herself how much to allocate to international stocks. Even Bogle himself was not nearly as dogmatic as some posters make him out to have been.

I think Bogle would say to stick to whatever strategy you choose.

What do you all think Bogle would approve more of?

A) Holding a 3 fund portfolio and staying the course.

B) Holdinf a 3 fund portfolio and abandoning course and selling international after a decade of U.S. outperformance.
It works for you, than awesome! Check out one of Mr. Bogle’s last interviews on YouTube. He states 40% to international stocks is too much and international bonds are not necessarily. He goes on to say international is not necessary.

Tony
Not necessary in what context?

Even if they're not necessary, does that mean they are to be avoided or sold off after a decade of under performance?
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by 1789 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:37 pm I was flipping through "Common Sense on Mutual Funds" today and it says something along the lines that an investor should decide for him or herself how much to allocate to international stocks. Even Bogle himself was not nearly as dogmatic as some posters make him out to have been.

I think Bogle would say to stick to whatever strategy you choose.

What do you all think Bogle would approve more of?

A) Holding a 3 fund portfolio and staying the course.

B) Holding a 3 fund portfolio and abandoning course and selling international after a decade of U.S. outperformance.
Changing a strategy is generally bad idea after underperformance. Let it be international or factors. But if one switches thinking it was a bad decision to hold from beginning, i think its OK to switch to something and then stay the course. Changing back and forth will cause failure in the long run for sure.
"My conscience wants vegetarianism to win over the world. And my subconscious is yearning for a piece of juicy meat. But what do i want?" (Andrei Tarkovsky)
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:44 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:39 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:37 pm I was flipping through "Common Sense on Mutual Funds" today and it says something along the lines that an investor should decide for him or herself how much to allocate to international stocks. Even Bogle himself was not nearly as dogmatic as some posters make him out to have been.

I think Bogle would say to stick to whatever strategy you choose.

What do you all think Bogle would approve more of?

A) Holding a 3 fund portfolio and staying the course.

B) Holdinf a 3 fund portfolio and abandoning course and selling international after a decade of U.S. outperformance.
It works for you, than awesome! Check out one of Mr. Bogle’s last interviews on YouTube. He states 40% to international stocks is too much and international bonds are not necessarily. He goes on to say international is not necessary.

Tony
Not necessary in what context?

Even if they're not necessary, does that mean they are to be avoided or sold off after a decade of under performance?
Why simple! Please go to www.YouTube.com and search! I have watched and it is awesome. You will learn much.

Tony
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by anon_investor »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:44 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:39 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:37 pm I was flipping through "Common Sense on Mutual Funds" today and it says something along the lines that an investor should decide for him or herself how much to allocate to international stocks. Even Bogle himself was not nearly as dogmatic as some posters make him out to have been.

I think Bogle would say to stick to whatever strategy you choose.

What do you all think Bogle would approve more of?

A) Holding a 3 fund portfolio and staying the course.

B) Holdinf a 3 fund portfolio and abandoning course and selling international after a decade of U.S. outperformance.
It works for you, than awesome! Check out one of Mr. Bogle’s last interviews on YouTube. He states 40% to international stocks is too much and international bonds are not necessarily. He goes on to say international is not necessary.

Tony
Not necessary in what context?

Even if they're not necessary, does that mean they are to be avoided or sold off after a decade of under performance?
I
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 »

anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:58 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:44 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:39 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:37 pm I was flipping through "Common Sense on Mutual Funds" today and it says something along the lines that an investor should decide for him or herself how much to allocate to international stocks. Even Bogle himself was not nearly as dogmatic as some posters make him out to have been.

I think Bogle would say to stick to whatever strategy you choose.

What do you all think Bogle would approve more of?

A) Holding a 3 fund portfolio and staying the course.

B) Holdinf a 3 fund portfolio and abandoning course and selling international after a decade of U.S. outperformance.
It works for you, than awesome! Check out one of Mr. Bogle’s last interviews on YouTube. He states 40% to international stocks is too much and international bonds are not necessarily. He goes on to say international is not necessary.

Tony
Not necessary in what context?

Even if they're not necessary, does that mean they are to be avoided or sold off after a decade of under performance?
I
Did your response not post?

Tony
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Triple digit golfer »

abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:59 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:58 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:44 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:39 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:37 pm I was flipping through "Common Sense on Mutual Funds" today and it says something along the lines that an investor should decide for him or herself how much to allocate to international stocks. Even Bogle himself was not nearly as dogmatic as some posters make him out to have been.

I think Bogle would say to stick to whatever strategy you choose.

What do you all think Bogle would approve more of?

A) Holding a 3 fund portfolio and staying the course.

B) Holdinf a 3 fund portfolio and abandoning course and selling international after a decade of U.S. outperformance.
It works for you, than awesome! Check out one of Mr. Bogle’s last interviews on YouTube. He states 40% to international stocks is too much and international bonds are not necessarily. He goes on to say international is not necessary.

Tony
Not necessary in what context?

Even if they're not necessary, does that mean they are to be avoided or sold off after a decade of under performance?
I
Did your response not post?

Tony
J
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 »

I have a very good friend of the family. Never believed in international because there was too many good opportunities here.

Anyway he would own:
* S&P 500
* US High Dividend
* US REITs
* Healthcare
* Technology
* Bond fund

He was hugely successful! How successful? Retired to Aspen, CO!

He once showed me his dividend income from this strategy. I was amazed. He lives from those dividends.

Should I have considered telling him he was wrong, he did not know what he was doing, go back to work, etc because he did not hold international?

It can be done.

Tony
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by anon_investor »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:03 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:59 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:58 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:44 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:39 pm

It works for you, than awesome! Check out one of Mr. Bogle’s last interviews on YouTube. He states 40% to international stocks is too much and international bonds are not necessarily. He goes on to say international is not necessary.

Tony
Not necessary in what context?

Even if they're not necessary, does that mean they are to be avoided or sold off after a decade of under performance?
I
Did your response not post?

Tony
J
Do you mean to write emergency fund? :twisted:
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 »

anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:08 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:03 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:59 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:58 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:44 pm

Not necessary in what context?

Even if they're not necessary, does that mean they are to be avoided or sold off after a decade of under performance?
I
Did your response not post?

Tony
J
Do you mean to write emergency fund? :twisted:
What about emergency funds? I would dilute that and buy even more Total Stock!

Tony
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 »

I always tell folks “buy as much Total Stock as possible until it hurts. Then find a way to buy even more”.

Receiving a “thank you for that” sometime in the future makes it all worthwhile!

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Triple digit golfer »

This thread has become comical. Its entire premise is based on past performance.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by anon_investor »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:42 pm This thread has become comical. Its entire premise is based on past performance.
It is still more reasonable than the many crypto FOMO threads that keep popping up.

Why is international "required"? I don't think it is.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Nathan Drake »

anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:50 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:42 pm This thread has become comical. Its entire premise is based on past performance.
It is still more reasonable than the many crypto FOMO threads that keep popping up.

Why is international "required"? I don't think it is.
Diversification is the closest thing to a free lunch when it comes to investing.

“Required”? No.

Does it optimize and reduce idiosyncratic risk? Yes

The OP’s position is comical in how ignorant it is in the historical record. If that’s what allows him to sleep at night, by all means...but don’t try and sway others to your cause without being honest about its shortcomings
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by anon_investor »

Nathan Drake wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 9:06 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:50 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:42 pm This thread has become comical. Its entire premise is based on past performance.
It is still more reasonable than the many crypto FOMO threads that keep popping up.

Why is international "required"? I don't think it is.
Diversification is the closest thing to a free lunch when it comes to investing.

“Required”? No.

Does it optimize and reduce idiosyncratic risk? Yes

The OP’s position is comical in how ignorant it is in the historical record. If that’s what allows him to sleep at night, by all means...but don’t try and sway others to your cause without being honest about its shortcomings
Historically international has performed much worse than US long term. So I am not sure the OP is ignoring the historical record.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Nathan Drake »

anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 9:09 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 9:06 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:50 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:42 pm This thread has become comical. Its entire premise is based on past performance.
It is still more reasonable than the many crypto FOMO threads that keep popping up.

Why is international "required"? I don't think it is.
Diversification is the closest thing to a free lunch when it comes to investing.

“Required”? No.

Does it optimize and reduce idiosyncratic risk? Yes

The OP’s position is comical in how ignorant it is in the historical record. If that’s what allows him to sleep at night, by all means...but don’t try and sway others to your cause without being honest about its shortcomings
Historically international has performed much worse than US long term. So I am not sure the OP is ignoring the historical record.

False. Only in the most recent past has international performed much worse. And investors today are not investing for the returns of yesterday.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by DSBH »

If an investor has a portfolio consisting of only Total Bond Index, could that portfolio be considered “diversified”? Or must the portfolio have International Bonds and/or US/International equities in order to be considered “điversified”?
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Nathan Drake »

DSBH wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 9:13 pm If an investor has a portfolio consisting of only Total Bond Index, could that portfolio be considered “diversified”? Or must the portfolio have International Bonds and/or US/International equities in order to be considered “điversified”?
The purpose of bonds is different than equities in a portfolio. I think international should absolutely be included in the equity portion, but bonds don’t serve much added value since the purpose is more about stability than growth
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 »

Portfolio Visualizer

Start Jan 1986 with $100,000

Total Stock - $3,987,000

International - $1,196,000

Now the response is historically a) Japan and b) 2000 - 2010

Ok....

2000 - 2010

Total Stock - $114,000

International - $139,000

I never looked that up before. I thought the way everyone talks it was much better outperformance by international. Now I am even more disappointed.

Now the icing....

Total Stock - $114,000

International - $139,000

Total Bond - $192,000

Wow! The Jack Bogle and Warren Buffett Two Fund Portfolio is a winner!

😂🤣😂😆

Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Northern Flicker »

abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 9:50 pm Portfolio Visualizer

Start Jan 1986 with $100,000

Total Stock - $3,987,000

International - $1,196,000

Now the response is historically a) Japan and b) 2000 - 2010

Ok....

2000 - 2010

Total Stock - $114,000

International - $139,000

I never looked that up before. I thought the way everyone talks it was much better outperformance by international. Now I am even more disappointed.

Now the icing....

Total Stock - $114,000

International - $139,000

Total Bond - $192,000

Wow! The Jack Bogle and Warren Buffett Two Fund Portfolio is a winner!

😂🤣😂😆

Tony
If you want to base your strategy on a backtest, you may as well consider a longer backtest. TEPLX is a globally diversified equity fund with higher fees than an index fund. Here is a comparison with the S&P500:

http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D
My postings are my opinion, and never should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular investment.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Da5id »

abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 9:50 pm
Now the response is historically a) Japan and b) 2000 - 2010

...

Wow! The Jack Bogle and Warren Buffett Two Fund Portfolio is a winner!

😂🤣😂😆

Tony
Your rather content free post raises Japan but then doesn't address it as far as I can tell? And seems to feel it is somehow making points beyond the incessant refrain of "Yay 2 fund. Bogle. Buffett. Yay." Repeat as needed.

US+bonds is fine. I don't personally think it is the best advice, but it is fine. But I also think that people who switch to it now (dumping international) in response to the IMO rather vapid cheerleading of this thread are being driven towards performance chasing by posts like the one above. Look at the graphs below and where we are, and ponder. Note that I'm not predicting that Int'l will beat US over any particular time frame, or over the long haul. Not knowable IMO. I am saying that switching from int'l after a long period of US outperformance and after a period of US earnings multiple growth is probably a bad idea and smacks of the worst sort of market timing.

Image

Image

I don't personally see the reason to make all-in bets on US outperformance. Why gamble on outperformance? Just "Buy the haystack".
Last edited by Da5id on Sat May 08, 2021 10:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Da5id »

Northern Flicker wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 10:20 pm If you want to base your strategy on a backtest, you may as well consider a longer backtest. TEPLX is a globally diversified equity fund with higher fees than an index fund. Here is a comparison with the S&P500:

http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D
While I'm not with abuss on his highly repetitive cheerleading, I'm highly dubious about the value of the comparison. Cherry picking an active world fund (that includes US stocks) that beat VTI over the last ~50 years is all well and good. But this fund:

Has a manager who is only had the fund for 2 years
Has a 1.06% expense ratio
Has a 5.5% sales load
Has a 52% turnover

I wouldn't wish this mess on anybody. If I were a betting man, I'd bet against it beating a combination of VTI and VXUS over the next 10 years after fees. Not a boglehead kind of fund at all. If you must pick an active fund, surely this isn't the one...
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 »

Northern Flicker wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 10:20 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 9:50 pm Portfolio Visualizer

Start Jan 1986 with $100,000

Total Stock - $3,987,000

International - $1,196,000

Now the response is historically a) Japan and b) 2000 - 2010

Ok....

2000 - 2010

Total Stock - $114,000

International - $139,000

I never looked that up before. I thought the way everyone talks it was much better outperformance by international. Now I am even more disappointed.

Now the icing....

Total Stock - $114,000

International - $139,000

Total Bond - $192,000

Wow! The Jack Bogle and Warren Buffett Two Fund Portfolio is a winner!

😂🤣😂😆

Tony
If you want to base your strategy on a backtest, you may as well consider a longer backtest. TEPLX is a globally diversified equity fund with higher fees than an index fund. Here is a comparison with the S&P500:

http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D
Global fund? With US in it? Are you comparing that to US only?

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by vineviz »

abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 1:56 pm
I agree. International appears to rise and fall with US anymore. Often falls more than US. At one time it may have been different.
It doesn’t seem this way to anyone who looks at the data.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Nathan Drake »

Da5id wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 10:30 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 9:50 pm
Now the response is historically a) Japan and b) 2000 - 2010

...

Wow! The Jack Bogle and Warren Buffett Two Fund Portfolio is a winner!

😂🤣😂😆

Tony
Your rather content free post raises Japan but then doesn't address it as far as I can tell? And seems to feel it is somehow making points beyond the incessant refrain of "Yay 2 fund. Bogle. Buffett. Yay." Repeat as needed.

US+bonds is fine. I don't personally think it is the best advice, but it is fine. But I also think that people who switch to it now (dumping international) in response to the IMO rather vapid cheerleading of this thread are being driven towards performance chasing by posts like the one above. Look at the graphs below and where we are, and ponder. Note that I'm not predicting that Int'l will beat US over any particular time frame, or over the long haul. Not knowable IMO. I am saying that switching from int'l after a long period of US outperformance and after a period of US earnings multiple growth is probably a bad idea and smacks of the worst sort of market timing.

Image

Image

I don't personally see the reason to make all-in bets on US outperformance. Why gamble on outperformance? Just "Buy the haystack".
This further indicates to me that valuations are some of the only metrics in investing that resemble a (not so perfect) physical law such as gravity.

International stocks had an enormous run that considerably outperformed US stocks during one of the worst periods to be a US investor, even coinciding with the infamous “death of equities article”. P/E for international was sky high, and followed with a huge unwinding in speculative valuations. After which, international and US were fairly correlated in P/E until 2009, where we have now seen a dramatic speculative shift in the opposite direction.

“Nobody knows nothing” should give any investor that puts all their eggs in one basket pause, given the chart posted
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Northern Flicker »

Da5id wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 10:39 pm
Northern Flicker wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 10:20 pm If you want to base your strategy on a backtest, you may as well consider a longer backtest. TEPLX is a globally diversified equity fund with higher fees than an index fund. Here is a comparison with the S&P500:

http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D
While I'm not with abuss on his highly repetitive cheerleading, I'm highly dubious about the value of the comparison. Cherry picking an active world fund (that includes US stocks) that beat VTI over the last ~50 years is all well and good. But this fund:

Has a manager who is only had the fund for 2 years
Has a 1.06% expense ratio
Has a 5.5% sales load
Has a 52% turnover

I wouldn't wish this mess on anybody. If I were a betting man, I'd bet against it beating a combination of VTI and VXUS over the next 10 years after fees. Not a boglehead kind of fund at all. If you must pick an active fund, surely this isn't the one...
I wasn't trying to recommend that fund at all. I used it because it is a globally diversified equity fund with performance data going back to its founding in 1954, providing an opportunity for a much longer comparison.

I'm pretty sure its ER was higher than 1.06% back then. That would be a further barrier to beating the S&P500, so an inexpensive global index fund likely would have trounced the S&P500 even more over the period.

If a retail investor in the US wanted int'l equity diversification before the early 1990's, it was not an easy thing to achieve. VGTSX, the original share class for VXUS, was founded in 1996. VEIEX, the original share class for VWO, was founded in 1994. I'm not sure when the first MSCI EAFE index fund was created, possibly 1992. Before the early 1990's US retail investors investing in non-US equities or non-US equity funds was a rarety. Templeton funds were possibly the only practical way retail investors in the US could do so for almost 4 decades starting with the founding of TEPLX in 1954.
My postings are my opinion, and never should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular investment.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Triple digit golfer »

abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 9:50 pm Portfolio Visualizer

Start Jan 1986 with $100,000

Total Stock - $3,987,000

International - $1,196,000

Now the response is historically a) Japan and b) 2000 - 2010

Ok....

2000 - 2010

Total Stock - $114,000

International - $139,000

I never looked that up before. I thought the way everyone talks it was much better outperformance by international. Now I am even more disappointed.

Now the icing....

Total Stock - $114,000

International - $139,000

Total Bond - $192,000

Wow! The Jack Bogle and Warren Buffett Two Fund Portfolio is a winner!

😂🤣😂😆

Tony
Yawn. Performance chasing. Classic behavioral pitfall.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Anon9001 »

Interesting that US SCV has lower correlation to US Market than Ex-US stocks. Probably due to US Large Caps being multinationals and Ex-US Large Caps being multinationals whereas US SCV is more tied to US Economy.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by BabaWawa »

abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:39 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:37 pm I was flipping through "Common Sense on Mutual Funds" today and it says something along the lines that an investor should decide for him or herself how much to allocate to international stocks. Even Bogle himself was not nearly as dogmatic as some posters make him out to have been.

I think Bogle would say to stick to whatever strategy you choose.

What do you all think Bogle would approve more of?

A) Holding a 3 fund portfolio and staying the course.

B) Holding a 3 fund portfolio and abandoning course and selling international after a decade of U.S. outperformance
.
It works for you, than awesome! Check out one of Mr. Bogle’s last interviews on YouTube. He states 40% to international stocks is too much and international bonds are not necessarily. He goes on to say international is not necessary.

Tony
Tony won't answer this question. This 33 page thread is an exhaustive effort to convince people to abandon their international allocation and rewrite their investment plan. I am convinced the answer is A, staying the course is the most important Bogleheads principle of investing.

Whether it's Taylor trying desperately to convinced me to abandon my chosen SCV allocation that I've held for almost 15 years or Tony telling me my international allocation is a mistake, their unBoglehead-like efforts to get folks to abandon their plan is not working for me.

Why is this thread still going? It's things like this that have me asking why I bother to keep coming back to this forum, when I'll just be bombarded with such relentless "noise". Fortunately there are lots of other fresh, interesting, and pertinent posts on subjects that matter like estate planning, tax efficiency and where to buy a watch.
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anon_investor
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by anon_investor »

BabaWawa wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 6:35 am
abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:39 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:37 pm I was flipping through "Common Sense on Mutual Funds" today and it says something along the lines that an investor should decide for him or herself how much to allocate to international stocks. Even Bogle himself was not nearly as dogmatic as some posters make him out to have been.

I think Bogle would say to stick to whatever strategy you choose.

What do you all think Bogle would approve more of?

A) Holding a 3 fund portfolio and staying the course.

B) Holding a 3 fund portfolio and abandoning course and selling international after a decade of U.S. outperformance
.
It works for you, than awesome! Check out one of Mr. Bogle’s last interviews on YouTube. He states 40% to international stocks is too much and international bonds are not necessarily. He goes on to say international is not necessary.

Tony
Tony won't answer this question. This 33 page thread is an exhaustive effort to convince people to abandon their international allocation and rewrite their investment plan. I am convinced the answer is A, staying the course is the most important Bogleheads principle of investing.

Whether it's Taylor trying desperately to convinced me to abandon my chosen SCV allocation that I've held for almost 15 years or Tony telling me my international allocation is a mistake, their unBoglehead-like efforts to get folks to abandon their plan is not working for me.

Why is this thread still going? It's things like this that have me asking why I bother to keep coming back to this forum, when I'll just be bombarded with such relentless "noise". Fortunately there are lots of other fresh, interesting, and pertinent posts on subjects that matter like estate planning, tax efficiency and where to buy a watch.
How is that any different than people who demand everyone else have international equities? Many BHs have been US equities only for decades. If stay the course is paramount, then staying US equities only makes sense.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Triple digit golfer »

anon_investor wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 6:40 am
BabaWawa wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 6:35 am
abuss368 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:39 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:37 pm I was flipping through "Common Sense on Mutual Funds" today and it says something along the lines that an investor should decide for him or herself how much to allocate to international stocks. Even Bogle himself was not nearly as dogmatic as some posters make him out to have been.

I think Bogle would say to stick to whatever strategy you choose.

What do you all think Bogle would approve more of?

A) Holding a 3 fund portfolio and staying the course.

B) Holding a 3 fund portfolio and abandoning course and selling international after a decade of U.S. outperformance
.
It works for you, than awesome! Check out one of Mr. Bogle’s last interviews on YouTube. He states 40% to international stocks is too much and international bonds are not necessarily. He goes on to say international is not necessary.

Tony
Tony won't answer this question. This 33 page thread is an exhaustive effort to convince people to abandon their international allocation and rewrite their investment plan. I am convinced the answer is A, staying the course is the most important Bogleheads principle of investing.

Whether it's Taylor trying desperately to convinced me to abandon my chosen SCV allocation that I've held for almost 15 years or Tony telling me my international allocation is a mistake, their unBoglehead-like efforts to get folks to abandon their plan is not working for me.

Why is this thread still going? It's things like this that have me asking why I bother to keep coming back to this forum, when I'll just be bombarded with such relentless "noise". Fortunately there are lots of other fresh, interesting, and pertinent posts on subjects that matter like estate planning, tax efficiency and where to buy a watch.
How is that any different than people who demand everyone else have international equities? Many BHs have been US equities only for decades. If stay the course is paramount, then staying US equities only makes sense.
Where I have a problem is when people tell new forum members who are selecting their first investments to "own the haystack" and proceed to recommend a U.S. total market index fund only. That is highly misleading. It excludes almost half of the world's market capitalization and far more than half of the world's companies, yet makes the investor feel as if they're owning all stocks.

At least explain that international funds are out there and explain why they should be excluded. Not just "Choose two funds because Jack Bogle said so and you'll never be below average, come see this 30+ page thread and come high five me."

Explain that Vanguard, Fidelity, BlackRock, JP Morgan, State Street, and every other firm out there recommends on average about 40% of equities in international stocks and that you are specifically advising that they hold none.
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Anon9001
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Anon9001 »

Most likely there will be no difference between Two Fund and Three Fund portfolios long term due to both US and Ex-US stock indexes being invested majority multi-nationals. The correlations between them seem to back up my assumption as they are higher than the correlation between US Stocks and US SCV.
Last edited by Anon9001 on Sun May 09, 2021 8:07 am, edited 5 times in total.
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