U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Tamalak wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 9:10 am
watchnerd wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 8:50 am
Tamalak wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 8:42 am
atdharris wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 8:27 am A terrible jobs report means that stocks should soar today.
Not that I'm complaining but why???
The Fed would be more likely to keep interest rates low longer.
What a horrible reason to go up.. the stock market would prefer to remain sick because the medicine tastes good :oops:
Pecunia non olet!
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Didn't NFP miss bigly? I see consensus of 978K, forecast 950K...and actual only 266K.

Is this another "bad news is good news" situation?
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 10:56 am Didn't NFP miss bigly? I see consensus of 978K, forecast 950K...and actual only 266K.

Is this another "bad news is good news" situation?
ALL economic news is good news. Because it actually doesn’t matter.

Only thing that’s bad is taper talk!
MindBogler
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MindBogler »

I'm not typically much for prognosticating, but I can't help but feel like we're experiencing a melt-up right now.
sailaway
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by sailaway »

MindBogler wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 11:15 am I'm not typically much for prognosticating, but I can't help but feel like we're experiencing a melt-up right now.
Shush, none of that, unless you are really Forester. I have RSUs vesting in a few weeks.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

anoop wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 11:13 am
Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 10:56 am Didn't NFP miss bigly? I see consensus of 978K, forecast 950K...and actual only 266K.

Is this another "bad news is good news" situation?
ALL economic news is good news. Because it actually doesn’t matter.

Only thing that’s bad is taper talk!
Well...I think Chair Powell said something along the lines of, he wants to see 1M jobs added for months or something like that. 266K is good in that we had a job gain, but it fell very short of what the Chair is looking for.
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

MindBogler wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 11:15 am I'm not typically much for prognosticating, but I can't help but feel like we're experiencing a melt-up right now.
This is not a melt up. NASDAQ is far from its ATH. Maybe when S&P500 hits 5000 and is still going up 2% every day.
MindBogler
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MindBogler »

sailaway wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 11:17 am
MindBogler wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 11:15 am I'm not typically much for prognosticating, but I can't help but feel like we're experiencing a melt-up right now.
Shush, none of that, unless you are really Forester. I have RSUs vesting in a few weeks.
Melt up can go on for a really long time. Look at the '98-'00 period.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

The market felt high back in early 2020 when the S&P was 3,300.

Then it felt high when after the crash it recovered so quickly back to previous all-time highs.

Then every increase since has felt high.

For those of you who have been investing for a few decades, does the market always feel high when it's rising? I can't imagine a time when the market is at an all-time high and not feeling like the market is high and "due" for a crash.

I think this is what burns market timers. They see their portfolios at all time highs, think a crash is imminent and then sell. Imagine doing that in 1996 or anytime over the last seven or so years.
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watchnerd
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:31 pm The market felt high back in early 2020 when the S&P was 3,300.

Then it felt high when after the crash it recovered so quickly back to previous all-time highs.

Then every increase since has felt high.

For those of you who have been investing for a few decades, does the market always feel high when it's rising? I can't imagine a time when the market is at an all-time high and not feeling like the market is high and "due" for a crash.

I think this is what burns market timers. They see their portfolios at all time highs, think a crash is imminent and then sell. Imagine doing that in 1996 or anytime over the last seven or so years.
Yes, it always feels too high to me in bull markets.

I hate them.
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Tamalak
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Tamalak »

S&P is up about 25-30% since early 2020. That's a pretty high gains for a 1-year timeframe. So feeling like the market is scarily high isn't unwarrented here I think. This is far from average.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

CurlyDave wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 9:47 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 9:37 am
...I hope inflation doesn't bubble up in a surprising way that would be enough to force the Fed's hand to make a sudden withdrawal of that medicine, if the market is such a junkie for it.
I don't think that is going to happen. For thousands of years governments have recognized that inflation is the debtor's friend, and most governments are debtors.

Even the ancient Romans had government sponsored inflation. They called it "debasing the currency" and it involved making coins with less gold and more copper in the alloy -- this is because the printing press was yet to be invented.
You may very well be right! But all the same, just for the record...

In Powell's own words:

"We do not seek inflation that substantially exceeds 2 percent, nor do we seek inflation above 2 percent for a prolonged period," Powell said in a five-page response to a March 24 letter in which the Florida Republican raised concerns about rising inflation and the U.S. central bank's bond-buying program. link

"We understand our job we will do our job and we are focused as you seen for many years We have been focused on inflation "deviating" below 2%, and we used our tools aggressively to put it back up at 2% if we do see inflation moving materially above 2% persistent way the risks of inflation expectation drifting up then we will use our tools to guide inflation and expectation back down to 2% no one should doubt that we will do that this is not what we expect but no one should doubt that in the event we will be prepared to use our tools."
YouTube video link
Begins at the 4:30 mark.
"I think we may see a return to full employment next year." -- Janet Yellen, March 23rd 2021
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Tamalak wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:35 pm S&P is up about 25-30% since early 2020. That's a pretty high gains for a 1-year timeframe. So feeling like the market is scarily high isn't unwarrented here I think. This is far from average.
Look at 1982-2000. A 19 year period of phenomenal returns, more than 15% nominal and almost 12% real.

From 2009 to now, which is only 12 years, we're at about the same nominal return and a couple points higher in real returns. So we could have another several good years in the tank (8-10% real) and still not even beat what happened in that time period.
surfstar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by surfstar »

Tamalak wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:35 pm S&P is up about 25-30% since early 2020. That's a pretty high gains for a 1-year timeframe. So feeling like the market is scarily high isn't unwarrented here I think. This is far from average.
Last 10 years (total return): https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns

2020 18.40
2019 31.49
2018 -4.38
2017 21.83
2016 11.96
2015 1.38
2014 13.69
2013 32.39
2012 16.00
2011 2.11

So, you could say that its been this high of a return 20% of the time in the last 10 years.
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Looking forward to 4300+ next week.
Hyperchicken
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Hyperchicken »

Stock market always feels high, by the very definition of how it is priced.

It is always right at the brink of where it almost makes no sense to buy into it because of how high it is priced.

The only time it does not feel high is when it is crashing and burning, and everyone is legitimately scared to buy.
lazynovice
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lazynovice »

Hyperchicken wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:59 pm Stock market always feels high, by the very definition of how it is priced.

It is always right at the brink of where it almost makes no sense to buy into it because of how high it is priced.

The only time it does not feel high is when it is crashing and burning, and everyone is legitimately scared to buy.
But even then we say “Am I catching a falling knife?”
“I didn’t want my sailboat to be in the driveway when I died.” Nomadland
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

lazynovice wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:13 pm
Hyperchicken wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:59 pm Stock market always feels high, by the very definition of how it is priced.

It is always right at the brink of where it almost makes no sense to buy into it because of how high it is priced.

The only time it does not feel high is when it is crashing and burning, and everyone is legitimately scared to buy.
But even then we say “Am I catching a falling knife?”
That is outdated. The fed catches all falling knives and throws them back up in the air for us.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

Keep in mind between 1982-2000, interest rates were much higher than they are today. So while we saw 12% real returns, I'd argue this market isn't as impressive as the one from 1982-2000. Now if rates were 5-6%, then sure.

I'm just going to remain invested and not worry whether the market is too high or not. I'd hate to be someone that cashes out now and we're at S&P 4500 by summer's end and I'm sitting here holding cash.
lazynovice
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lazynovice »

anoop wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:18 pm
lazynovice wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:13 pm
Hyperchicken wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:59 pm Stock market always feels high, by the very definition of how it is priced.

It is always right at the brink of where it almost makes no sense to buy into it because of how high it is priced.

The only time it does not feel high is when it is crashing and burning, and everyone is legitimately scared to buy.
But even then we say “Am I catching a falling knife?”
That is outdated. The fed catches all falling knives and throws them back up in the air for us.
“But it’s different this time”
“I didn’t want my sailboat to be in the driveway when I died.” Nomadland
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

lazynovice wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:21 pm
anoop wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:18 pm
lazynovice wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:13 pm
Hyperchicken wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:59 pm Stock market always feels high, by the very definition of how it is priced.

It is always right at the brink of where it almost makes no sense to buy into it because of how high it is priced.

The only time it does not feel high is when it is crashing and burning, and everyone is legitimately scared to buy.
But even then we say “Am I catching a falling knife?”
That is outdated. The fed catches all falling knives and throws them back up in the air for us.
“But it’s different this time”
Actually it's the same as the last 10 years.
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:37 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 9:47 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 9:37 am
...I hope inflation doesn't bubble up in a surprising way that would be enough to force the Fed's hand to make a sudden withdrawal of that medicine, if the market is such a junkie for it.
I don't think that is going to happen. For thousands of years governments have recognized that inflation is the debtor's friend, and most governments are debtors.

Even the ancient Romans had government sponsored inflation. They called it "debasing the currency" and it involved making coins with less gold and more copper in the alloy -- this is because the printing press was yet to be invented.
You may very well be right! But all the same, just for the record...

In Powell's own words:

"We do not seek inflation that substantially exceeds 2 percent, nor do we seek inflation above 2 percent for a prolonged period," Powell said in a five-page response to a March 24 letter in which the Florida Republican raised concerns about rising inflation and the U.S. central bank's bond-buying program. link

"We understand our job we will do our job and we are focused as you seen for many years We have been focused on inflation "deviating" below 2%, and we used our tools aggressively to put it back up at 2% if we do see inflation moving materially above 2% persistent way the risks of inflation expectation drifting up then we will use our tools to guide inflation and expectation back down to 2% no one should doubt that we will do that this is not what we expect but no one should doubt that in the event we will be prepared to use our tools."
YouTube video link
Begins at the 4:30 mark.
There have been many times when actual government policy has diverged greatly from stated policy. And quite possibly for good reasons.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
txhill
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by txhill »

anoop wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:18 pm
lazynovice wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:13 pm
Hyperchicken wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:59 pm Stock market always feels high, by the very definition of how it is priced.

It is always right at the brink of where it almost makes no sense to buy into it because of how high it is priced.

The only time it does not feel high is when it is crashing and burning, and everyone is legitimately scared to buy.
But even then we say “Am I catching a falling knife?”
That is outdated. The fed catches all falling knives and throws them back up in the air for us.
This is exactly it. All those memes that say "stonks only go up" really do have it right.
dogagility
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility »

txhill wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:28 pm
anoop wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:18 pm
lazynovice wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:13 pm
Hyperchicken wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:59 pm Stock market always feels high, by the very definition of how it is priced.

It is always right at the brink of where it almost makes no sense to buy into it because of how high it is priced.

The only time it does not feel high is when it is crashing and burning, and everyone is legitimately scared to buy.
But even then we say “Am I catching a falling knife?”
That is outdated. The fed catches all falling knives and throws them back up in the air for us.
This is exactly it. All those memes that say "stonks only go up" really do have it right.
Since 1871, Baby! :moneybag :moneybag :beer
The more flexibility you have the less you need to know what happens next. -- Morgan Housel
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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey »

Keep on soaring, U.S. stocks (in my Two Fund Portfolio)! :beer
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Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

CurlyDave wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:25 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:37 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 9:47 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 9:37 am
...I hope inflation doesn't bubble up in a surprising way that would be enough to force the Fed's hand to make a sudden withdrawal of that medicine, if the market is such a junkie for it.
I don't think that is going to happen. For thousands of years governments have recognized that inflation is the debtor's friend, and most governments are debtors.

Even the ancient Romans had government sponsored inflation. They called it "debasing the currency" and it involved making coins with less gold and more copper in the alloy -- this is because the printing press was yet to be invented.
You may very well be right! But all the same, just for the record...

In Powell's own words:

"We do not seek inflation that substantially exceeds 2 percent, nor do we seek inflation above 2 percent for a prolonged period," Powell said in a five-page response to a March 24 letter in which the Florida Republican raised concerns about rising inflation and the U.S. central bank's bond-buying program. link

"We understand our job we will do our job and we are focused as you seen for many years We have been focused on inflation "deviating" below 2%, and we used our tools aggressively to put it back up at 2% if we do see inflation moving materially above 2% persistent way the risks of inflation expectation drifting up then we will use our tools to guide inflation and expectation back down to 2% no one should doubt that we will do that this is not what we expect but no one should doubt that in the event we will be prepared to use our tools."
YouTube video link
Begins at the 4:30 mark.
There have been many times when actual government policy has diverged greatly from stated policy. And quite possibly for good reasons.
Maybe it's not so much just the stated policy, as it is the level of assurances Powell is giving that they're going to stick to that policy.
"I think we may see a return to full employment next year." -- Janet Yellen, March 23rd 2021
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watchnerd
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

txhill wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:28 pm
This is exactly it. All those memes that say "stonks only go up" really do have it right.
Putting this one in the "let's revisit this post in 5 years" pile. ;)
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Third Son
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Third Son »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:31 pm The market felt high back in early 2020 when the S&P was 3,300.

Then it felt high when after the crash it recovered so quickly back to previous all-time highs.

Then every increase since has felt high.

For those of you who have been investing for a few decades, does the market always feel high when it's rising? I can't imagine a time when the market is at an all-time high and not feeling like the market is high and "due" for a crash.

I think this is what burns market timers. They see their portfolios at all time highs, think a crash is imminent and then sell. Imagine doing that in 1996 or anytime over the last seven or so years.
I never looked until the year before I retired. That's the beauty of indexing and ignoring.
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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:31 pm
For those of you who have been investing for a few decades, does the market always feel high when it's rising? I can't imagine a time when the market is at an all-time high and not feeling like the market is high and "due" for a crash.

I think this is what burns market timers. They see their portfolios at all time highs, think a crash is imminent and then sell. Imagine doing that in 1996 or anytime over the last seven or so years.
Sure it can feel high, but I never act on those feelings, as they are usually wrong. Because the market is a leading indicator you can only say for sure after the fact.

An equally good question is how do people feel after a 30-40% drop: do you feel things are on sale? Or are you in the FUD mindset? I was dumbfounded last March when you could buy up stocks a >=35% discount from two weeks prior, and they were like “Nahhhh not good enough for me.” People can be just as greedy in crashes as they can in up markets. Secondly, IPSes can be ignored to people’s peril on the downside just as they can be in the upside — the very time they help you the most.

Here’s the deal: crashes are going to happen. Get over it. People should stop trying to control things they have no control over, let things happen and follow your plan (IPS, AA etc).
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

mrspock wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 5:22 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:31 pm
For those of you who have been investing for a few decades, does the market always feel high when it's rising? I can't imagine a time when the market is at an all-time high and not feeling like the market is high and "due" for a crash.

I think this is what burns market timers. They see their portfolios at all time highs, think a crash is imminent and then sell. Imagine doing that in 1996 or anytime over the last seven or so years.
Sure it can feel high, but I never act on those feelings, as they are usually wrong. Because the market is a leading indicator you can only say for sure after the fact.

An equally good question is how do people feel after a 30-40% drop: do you feel things are on sale? Or are you in the FUD mindset? I was dumbfounded last March when you could buy up stocks a >=35% discount from two weeks prior, and they were like “Nahhhh not good enough for me.” People can be just as greedy in crashes as they can in up markets. Secondly, IPSes can be ignored to people’s peril on the downside just as they can be in the upside — the very time they help you the most.

Here’s the deal: crashes are going to happen. Get over it. People should stop trying to control things they have no control over, let things happen and follow your plan (IPS, AA etc).
I totally agree. I stick to my 80/20 AA regardless of market conditions. I was just talking about how it feels, not acting on any impulses. I've been buying a lot of bonds lately because my portfolio keeps trending stock heavy. I think I'm about 80.5/19.5 now. I'll keep contributing to whatever is low and rebalance if bands are triggered.
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anon_investor
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anon_investor »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 6:35 pm
mrspock wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 5:22 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:31 pm
For those of you who have been investing for a few decades, does the market always feel high when it's rising? I can't imagine a time when the market is at an all-time high and not feeling like the market is high and "due" for a crash.

I think this is what burns market timers. They see their portfolios at all time highs, think a crash is imminent and then sell. Imagine doing that in 1996 or anytime over the last seven or so years.
Sure it can feel high, but I never act on those feelings, as they are usually wrong. Because the market is a leading indicator you can only say for sure after the fact.

An equally good question is how do people feel after a 30-40% drop: do you feel things are on sale? Or are you in the FUD mindset? I was dumbfounded last March when you could buy up stocks a >=35% discount from two weeks prior, and they were like “Nahhhh not good enough for me.” People can be just as greedy in crashes as they can in up markets. Secondly, IPSes can be ignored to people’s peril on the downside just as they can be in the upside — the very time they help you the most.

Here’s the deal: crashes are going to happen. Get over it. People should stop trying to control things they have no control over, let things happen and follow your plan (IPS, AA etc).
I totally agree. I stick to my 80/20 AA regardless of market conditions. I was just talking about how it feels, not acting on any impulses. I've been buying a lot of bonds lately because my portfolio keeps trending stock heavy. I think I'm about 80.5/19.5 now. I'll keep contributing to whatever is low and rebalance if bands are triggered.
Why not just always contribute 80/20 and rebalance when a band hits? One less action to take (deciding what is underweight). SIMPLICITY!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Turned out to be an excellent week. I wasn't expecting it to be honest.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 6:58 pm Turned out to be an excellent week. I wasn't expecting it to be honest.
Those are the best kind!
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

txhill wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:28 pm
All those memes that say "stonks only go up" really do have it right.
I think that you are “the anti-Forester” of this Forum. :D
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Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

anon_investor wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 6:45 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 6:35 pm
mrspock wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 5:22 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:31 pm
For those of you who have been investing for a few decades, does the market always feel high when it's rising? I can't imagine a time when the market is at an all-time high and not feeling like the market is high and "due" for a crash.

I think this is what burns market timers. They see their portfolios at all time highs, think a crash is imminent and then sell. Imagine doing that in 1996 or anytime over the last seven or so years.
Sure it can feel high, but I never act on those feelings, as they are usually wrong. Because the market is a leading indicator you can only say for sure after the fact.

An equally good question is how do people feel after a 30-40% drop: do you feel things are on sale? Or are you in the FUD mindset? I was dumbfounded last March when you could buy up stocks a >=35% discount from two weeks prior, and they were like “Nahhhh not good enough for me.” People can be just as greedy in crashes as they can in up markets. Secondly, IPSes can be ignored to people’s peril on the downside just as they can be in the upside — the very time they help you the most.

Here’s the deal: crashes are going to happen. Get over it. People should stop trying to control things they have no control over, let things happen and follow your plan (IPS, AA etc).
I totally agree. I stick to my 80/20 AA regardless of market conditions. I was just talking about how it feels, not acting on any impulses. I've been buying a lot of bonds lately because my portfolio keeps trending stock heavy. I think I'm about 80.5/19.5 now. I'll keep contributing to whatever is low and rebalance if bands are triggered.
Why not just always contribute 80/20 and rebalance when a band hits? One less action to take (deciding what is underweight). SIMPLICITY!
I do it with a spreadsheet. Oh wait, isn't eliminating spreadsheets part of SIMPLICITY?

In all seriousness, I do have my 401k contributions at 80/20 because it's a pain to switch it regularly. Taxable contributions are in the amount of whatever is left in checking at each pay period, so the amounts vary each week. If I need stocks, it goes to Vanguard. If I need bonds/cash, it either goes into savings or into taxable stocks and then a transfer is done in a tax deferred account from stocks to bonds.

Complication is the master key to financial insecurity!
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anon_investor
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anon_investor »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 8:09 pm
anon_investor wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 6:45 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 6:35 pm
mrspock wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 5:22 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:31 pm
For those of you who have been investing for a few decades, does the market always feel high when it's rising? I can't imagine a time when the market is at an all-time high and not feeling like the market is high and "due" for a crash.

I think this is what burns market timers. They see their portfolios at all time highs, think a crash is imminent and then sell. Imagine doing that in 1996 or anytime over the last seven or so years.
Sure it can feel high, but I never act on those feelings, as they are usually wrong. Because the market is a leading indicator you can only say for sure after the fact.

An equally good question is how do people feel after a 30-40% drop: do you feel things are on sale? Or are you in the FUD mindset? I was dumbfounded last March when you could buy up stocks a >=35% discount from two weeks prior, and they were like “Nahhhh not good enough for me.” People can be just as greedy in crashes as they can in up markets. Secondly, IPSes can be ignored to people’s peril on the downside just as they can be in the upside — the very time they help you the most.

Here’s the deal: crashes are going to happen. Get over it. People should stop trying to control things they have no control over, let things happen and follow your plan (IPS, AA etc).
I totally agree. I stick to my 80/20 AA regardless of market conditions. I was just talking about how it feels, not acting on any impulses. I've been buying a lot of bonds lately because my portfolio keeps trending stock heavy. I think I'm about 80.5/19.5 now. I'll keep contributing to whatever is low and rebalance if bands are triggered.
Why not just always contribute 80/20 and rebalance when a band hits? One less action to take (deciding what is underweight). SIMPLICITY!
I do it with a spreadsheet. Oh wait, isn't eliminating spreadsheets part of SIMPLICITY?

In all seriousness, I do have my 401k contributions at 80/20 because it's a pain to switch it regularly. Taxable contributions are in the amount of whatever is left in checking at each pay period, so the amounts vary each week. If I need stocks, it goes to Vanguard. If I need bonds/cash, it either goes into savings or into taxable stocks and then a transfer is done in a tax deferred account from stocks to bonds.

Complication is the master key to financial insecurity!
That sounds too confusing. Just VTSAX and chill in taxable, and keep your 3 fund portfolio in your 401k and rebalance once you hit bands. You have a cash allocation? Sounds like an emergency fund in disguise! :twisted: :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

anon_investor wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 10:15 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 8:09 pm
anon_investor wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 6:45 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 6:35 pm
mrspock wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 5:22 pm

Sure it can feel high, but I never act on those feelings, as they are usually wrong. Because the market is a leading indicator you can only say for sure after the fact.

An equally good question is how do people feel after a 30-40% drop: do you feel things are on sale? Or are you in the FUD mindset? I was dumbfounded last March when you could buy up stocks a >=35% discount from two weeks prior, and they were like “Nahhhh not good enough for me.” People can be just as greedy in crashes as they can in up markets. Secondly, IPSes can be ignored to people’s peril on the downside just as they can be in the upside — the very time they help you the most.

Here’s the deal: crashes are going to happen. Get over it. People should stop trying to control things they have no control over, let things happen and follow your plan (IPS, AA etc).
I totally agree. I stick to my 80/20 AA regardless of market conditions. I was just talking about how it feels, not acting on any impulses. I've been buying a lot of bonds lately because my portfolio keeps trending stock heavy. I think I'm about 80.5/19.5 now. I'll keep contributing to whatever is low and rebalance if bands are triggered.
Why not just always contribute 80/20 and rebalance when a band hits? One less action to take (deciding what is underweight). SIMPLICITY!
I do it with a spreadsheet. Oh wait, isn't eliminating spreadsheets part of SIMPLICITY?

In all seriousness, I do have my 401k contributions at 80/20 because it's a pain to switch it regularly. Taxable contributions are in the amount of whatever is left in checking at each pay period, so the amounts vary each week. If I need stocks, it goes to Vanguard. If I need bonds/cash, it either goes into savings or into taxable stocks and then a transfer is done in a tax deferred account from stocks to bonds.

Complication is the master key to financial insecurity!
That sounds too confusing. Just VTSAX and chill in taxable, and keep your 3 fund portfolio in your 401k and rebalance once you hit bands. You have a cash allocation? Sounds like an emergency fund in disguise! :twisted: :beer
I love reading the many Bogleheads who simply say “VTSAX and chill” or “VTI is a modern marvel”.

Add a simple bond fund and you are good to go.

Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

anon_investor wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 10:15 pm
That sounds too confusing. Just VTSAX and chill in taxable, and keep your 3 fund portfolio in your 401k and rebalance once you hit bands. You have a cash allocation? Sounds like an emergency fund in disguise! :twisted: :beer
I agree that spreadsheets are a waste of time and not needed. Owning a simple portfolio or Two or Three Funds is enough. Vanguard’s website and statements provide more information than a stay the course total market investor could use.

Years ago I maintained many spreadsheets. Reviewing data is many different ways. I soon realized it was a waste of time and did not go anything.

All spreadsheets have been thrown in the circular file and purged!

Jack Bogle “Simplicity is the master key to financial success.”

Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Kookaburra »

abuss368 wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 10:35 pm
anon_investor wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 10:15 pm
That sounds too confusing. Just VTSAX and chill in taxable, and keep your 3 fund portfolio in your 401k and rebalance once you hit bands. You have a cash allocation? Sounds like an emergency fund in disguise! :twisted: :beer
I agree that spreadsheets are a waste of time and not needed. Owning a simple portfolio or Two or Three Funds is enough. Vanguard’s website and statements provide more information than a stay the course total market investor could use.

Years ago I maintained many spreadsheets. Reviewing data is many different ways. I soon realized it was a waste of time and did not go anything.

All spreadsheets have been thrown in the circular file and purged!

Jack Bogle “Simplicity is the master key to financial success.”

Tony
Agreed. Less spreadsheets, more trucks with big beds to back up!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

Kookaburra wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 10:40 pm
abuss368 wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 10:35 pm
anon_investor wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 10:15 pm
That sounds too confusing. Just VTSAX and chill in taxable, and keep your 3 fund portfolio in your 401k and rebalance once you hit bands. You have a cash allocation? Sounds like an emergency fund in disguise! :twisted: :beer
I agree that spreadsheets are a waste of time and not needed. Owning a simple portfolio or Two or Three Funds is enough. Vanguard’s website and statements provide more information than a stay the course total market investor could use.

Years ago I maintained many spreadsheets. Reviewing data is many different ways. I soon realized it was a waste of time and did not go anything.

All spreadsheets have been thrown in the circular file and purged!

Jack Bogle “Simplicity is the master key to financial success.”

Tony
Agreed. Less spreadsheets, more trucks with big beds to back up!
Love it.
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Forester
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

On the subject of rebalancing; at the end Q2 I will be 60/40, which will see me through the quite-probable 40% to 60% bear market which will likely unfold from Q3 2021 until around 2023. When I detect the market has bottomed & levelled out I might increase risk.

It would be unfair to label anyone 100% stocks as "greedy" however perhaps "optimistic" is a better label.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jason2459 »

Thanks Forester for the predictions. :beer :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Forester wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 12:00 amWhen I detect the market has bottomed & levelled out I might increase risk.
If you are as bad at detecting the bottom as you are the top, I don't think you're going make any extra money with this strategy.

"To know thyself is the beginning of wisdom."
-Socrates
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

We're on pace for a 33% year; it's a bit too hot in my opinion. I don't change anything though.
APX32
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by APX32 »

Forester wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 12:00 am On the subject of rebalancing; at the end Q2 I will be 60/40, which will see me through the quite-probable 40% to 60% bear market which will likely unfold from Q3 2021 until around 2023. When I detect the market has bottomed & levelled out I might increase risk.

It would be unfair to label anyone 100% stocks as "greedy" however perhaps "optimistic" is a better label.
Thank you for all that you’ve done this year Forester. I just checked the numbers, on January 1, 2021, my entire investment portfolio totaled 1,000,007. I had just joined the two comma club. Today, 5/7/2021, the totals read 1,300,051, a gain of 30% in just 5 months. A good chunk of the gains has come from crypto, bitcoin and ethereum to be exact. You recall how many times you called the top on bitcoin followed by a massive plunge that has yet to materialize?

The rest of the gains have come up from the Boglehead portion of my portfolio, plus some other trades that turned out well. A two year bear market you say?

:moneybag :moneybag
:sharebeer
40% SPY | 10% GLD | 10% BTC/ETH | 40% Cash
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

abuss368 wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 10:35 pm
anon_investor wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 10:15 pm
That sounds too confusing. Just VTSAX and chill in taxable, and keep your 3 fund portfolio in your 401k and rebalance once you hit bands. You have a cash allocation? Sounds like an emergency fund in disguise! :twisted: :beer
I agree that spreadsheets are a waste of time and not needed. Owning a simple portfolio or Two or Three Funds is enough. Vanguard’s website and statements provide more information than a stay the course total market investor could use.

Years ago I maintained many spreadsheets. Reviewing data is many different ways. I soon realized it was a waste of time and did not go anything.

All spreadsheets have been thrown in the circular file and purged!

Jack Bogle “Simplicity is the master key to financial success.”

Tony
Lots of things are a waste of time. That alone isn't reason not to do them. In fact, what constitutes a waste of time is completely subjective. One might say that 24,000 posts espousing "simplicity" and pushing a two fund, less than optimally diversified portfolio on an investing forum is a waste of time, yet we still see that here.

Imagine how empty this board would be if everybody still used spreadsheets and held an extra fund!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

I like spreadsheets.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

Kookaburra wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 10:40 pm
abuss368 wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 10:35 pm
anon_investor wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 10:15 pm
That sounds too confusing. Just VTSAX and chill in taxable, and keep your 3 fund portfolio in your 401k and rebalance once you hit bands. You have a cash allocation? Sounds like an emergency fund in disguise! :twisted: :beer
I agree that spreadsheets are a waste of time and not needed. Owning a simple portfolio or Two or Three Funds is enough. Vanguard’s website and statements provide more information than a stay the course total market investor could use.

Years ago I maintained many spreadsheets. Reviewing data is many different ways. I soon realized it was a waste of time and did not go anything.

All spreadsheets have been thrown in the circular file and purged!

Jack Bogle “Simplicity is the master key to financial success.”

Tony
Agreed. Less spreadsheets, more trucks with big beds to back up!
Even my rock ship finds spreadsheets to be a waste of time!

Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

atdharris wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:19 pm I'm just going to remain invested and not worry whether the market is too high or not. I'd hate to be someone that cashes out now and we're at S&P 4500 by summer's end and I'm sitting here holding cash.
Exactly, one could easily miss out on another 50-100% and not get the chance to buy the dip ever again. That would hurt me more than having to ride out a decade of poor returns.
100% Global Stocks / Ibond Emergency Fund
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

abuss368 wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 10:31 pm I love reading the many Bogleheads who simply say “VTSAX and chill” or “VTI is a modern marvel”.

Add a simple bond fund and you are good to go.
Yes. My version of this is "VBIAX and chill" (Balanced Index Fund).
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