My argument is that the outperformance of US stocks is driven by an advantage in tech megacaps. This advantage seems to be increasing, and these companies are just gaining more power, wealth, and marketshare. Perhaps more importantly: the US as a nation is a world-leader in technology, and its advantage as a nation (specifically, of US tech hotspots like Silicon Valley) also seems to be only increasing.vineviz wrote:
These are the factors that drove the US's unique outperformance of the past decade, and for this outperformance to end in our time, these factors must change substantially.
I'm not necessarily seeking a confirmation, but I am seeking what I asked for: a plausible scenario to explain how the US and US-based megacaps may lose their current global dominance.
Obviously nothing is forever, but if we can't envision such a scenario happening within our lifetime, then that should affect our investing strategy.