Ron Paul's portfolio

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livesoft
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Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by livesoft » Wed Dec 21, 2011 5:09 pm

http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2011/1 ... portfolio/
At our request, William Bernstein, an investment manager at Efficient Portfolio Advisors in Eastford, Conn., reviewed Rep. Paul’s portfolio as set out in the annual disclosure statement. Mr. Bernstein says he has never seen such an extreme bet on economic catastrophe. ”This portfolio is a half-step away from a cellar-full of canned goods and nine-millimeter rounds,” he says.
So who on this forum has a similar portfolio? 'Fess up now! :)

And a quote from the Comments:
Mr. Arkadin wrote:
Vanguard s&P 500 index 10 year annualized return: 2.71%. Vanguard Precious Metal and Mining Index 10 year annualized return: 18.30%. Based on that, I would say that Mr. Bernstein and Co’s portfolio’s are one step away from canned goods and 9mm rounds in terms of effectiveness, and Ron Paul is the second coming of Warren Buffett. You can do better than this, WSJ!
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bertilak
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by bertilak » Wed Dec 21, 2011 5:16 pm

I wonder if Rep Paul reads The Dines Report.
May neither drought nor rain nor blizzard disturb the joy juice in your gizzard. -- Squire Omar Barker, the Cowboy Poet

hicabob
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by hicabob » Wed Dec 21, 2011 5:22 pm

from the referenced blog ... "The remainder of Rep. Paul’s portfolio – fully 64% of his assets – is entirely in gold and silver mining stocks"

- that explains his advocacy of a return to a gold backed currency :wink:

Manbaerpig
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by Manbaerpig » Wed Dec 21, 2011 5:27 pm

[uncouth personal attack removed by Mod]


poking fun at the popular perception of Ron Paul is anything but

edited by mbp
Last edited by Manbaerpig on Thu Dec 22, 2011 1:13 am, edited 1 time in total.

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CaliJim
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by CaliJim » Wed Dec 21, 2011 5:27 pm

I'm biting my tongue. It is hard not to talk about politics......

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bertilak
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by bertilak » Wed Dec 21, 2011 5:29 pm

hicabob wrote:from the referenced blog ... "The remainder of Rep. Paul’s portfolio – fully 64% of his assets – is entirely in gold and silver mining stocks"

- that explains his advocacy of a return to a gold backed currency :wink:
Although not a Ron Paul fan, I give him the benefit of the doubt on this. I think both his portfolio and his policy preference are based on the same honestly held opinion. My only evidence? He seems sincere to me. Lots of people are sincere about lots of things I don't agree with.
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bob90245
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by bob90245 » Wed Dec 21, 2011 5:42 pm

Another bit that speaks to Paul's lack of confidence in a growing economy...
The Wall Street Journal's personal-finance blog wrote:... about 21% of Rep. Paul’s holdings are in real estate and roughly 14% in cash. But he owns no bonds or bond funds and has only 0.1% in stock funds. Furthermore, the stock funds that Rep. Paul does own are all “short,” or make bets against, U.S. stocks. One is a “double inverse” fund that, on a daily basis, goes up twice as much as its stock benchmark goes down.
Ignore the market noise. Keep to your rebalancing schedule whether that is semi-annual, annual or trigger bands.

jginseattle
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by jginseattle » Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:35 pm

It appears unlikely that Ron Paul is a Boglehead.

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nisiprius
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by nisiprius » Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:42 pm

Well, I would certainly question this combination:

"One [of his holdings] is a 'double inverse' fund that, on a daily basis, goes up twice as much as its stock benchmark goes down,"

combined with

"Rep. Paul appears to be a strict buy-and-hold investor who rarely trades."

If he handles the double inverse fund that way, then I would submit that in that part of his portfolio, he is screwing up, and must not have read the Prospectus, or the boldfaced cautions in the website description, or FINRA's warnings about leveraged ETFs.

The funds appear to be
Rydex Dynamic Nasdaq-100 2X (RYVYX)
Rydex Inverse S&P 500 Strategy (RYURX)

Rydex has these cautions right on the web page describing the funds. The parts that I am quoting are parts they put in boldface:
These Funds should be utilized only by investors who (a) understand the risks associated with the use of leverage, (b) understand the consequences of seeking daily leveraged investment results, (c) understand the risk of shorting, and (d) intend to actively monitor and manage their investments....

Due to the compounding of daily returns, leveraged and inverse Funds’ returns over periods other than one day will likely differ in amount and possibly direction from the benchmark return for the same period....

Investors should monitor their leveraged and inverse Funds’ holdings consistent with their strategies, as frequently as daily.
That's not a meaningless pro forma warning. Let's look at what happened from 5/9/2009 to today. During that time, an investment of $10,000 in Vanguard Five Hundred Index shrunk to $9,063, a loss of about $1,000. What might a foolish investor expect a buy-and-hold investment in the Rydex Inverse S&P 500 fund to do? Gain about $1,000, of course. What really happened?

Image
Instead doing the opposite of the S&P 500 fund and gaining $1,000, it lost $1,644--more than the S&P 500 fund lost.

These inverse and leveraged funds are no good for buy-and-hold investors. Just as the fund companies say, they are for investors who intend to "monitor their leveraged and inverse Funds’ holdings consistent with their strategies, as frequently as daily." That is to say, market timers.
Last edited by nisiprius on Wed Dec 21, 2011 8:00 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Manbaerpig
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by Manbaerpig » Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:45 pm

I assume it's 0.1% of his portfolio (or less) in that double-inverse fund...

say he's worth $5m... we're talking about $5k here, tops...

most here advocate "do watcha like" with up to ~5%.... this is 1/50 of that amount (to him)...


also if he's been in gold since "at least 2002", who is laughing now eh?
Last edited by Manbaerpig on Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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baw703916
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by baw703916 » Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:46 pm

Well, it doesn't resemble my portfolio very much.

It is substantially larger, though, so I'm not sure I am really qualified to criticize his investing acumen.

Brad
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market timer
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by market timer » Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:47 pm

Doesn't surprise me that he gets about as much credit for his investing acumen as he does for his understanding of the true causes of our current malaise.

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market timer
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by market timer » Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:51 pm

Here's something I don't understand. This man has been a Congressman for decades, a physician before that, and has held what appears to be great bet on gold. Why then is he only worth $2.44-5.46 milllion? It always shocks me how little these public figures are worth. Do most of them have a secret stash overseas?

Leesbro63
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by Leesbro63 » Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:52 pm

I'd bet he's worth alot more than $5M

gulliver
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by gulliver » Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:54 pm

I don't know Ron Paul personally but I bet if he were a member of this forum he would respectfully ask, "no politics, please!"

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alec
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by alec » Wed Dec 21, 2011 8:58 pm

market timer wrote:Doesn't surprise me that he gets about as much credit for his investing acumen as he does for his understanding of the true causes of our current malaise.
did the link to his portfolio work for anyone ? I want to look at those mining cos.
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FafnerMorell
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by FafnerMorell » Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:10 pm

Ron Paul's investments were made largely pre-2002. I know some folks don't follow the news but gold has actually UP in value since 2002. By quite a bit. I've seen elsewhere that his ROI over the past 10 years has been over 500%. While I'm not a gold-owner, I'd be hesitant to argue with that success so far.

It's suprising to find that facts don't matter to so many folks when it comes to politics. Perhaps that's what they're not a proper Boglehead topic.
It's a bit disgraceful of livesoft, who I'd normally respect, to make such a biased and oblivious to the facts original post.

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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by clevername » Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:22 pm

market timer wrote:Here's something I don't understand. This man has been a Congressman for decades, a physician before that, and has held what appears to be great bet on gold. Why then is he only worth $2.44-5.46 milllion? It always shocks me how little these public figures are worth. Do most of them have a secret stash overseas?
Well, the article says that's his investment portfolio. He could have a house worth $5million somewhere without necessarily having to report it. I'm not saying this is the case but it's possible. The article mentioned 21% of his portfolio being in real estate but that could just mean REITs and not actual deeds to property.

livesoft
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by livesoft » Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:48 pm

FafnerMorell wrote:It's a bit disgraceful of livesoft, who I'd normally respect, to make such a biased and oblivious to the facts original post.
LOL! I expressed no personal opinion in the OP. I had QUOTES from each side of the opinion spectrum, too. :) You cannot get much more factual than that: Those people really did factually write and say those things.
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by brick-house » Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:54 pm

markettimer wrote:
Here's something I don't understand. This man has been a Congressman for decades, a physician before that, and has held what appears to be great bet on gold. Why then is he only worth $2.44-5.46 milllion? It always shocks me how little these public figures are worth. Do most of them have a secret stash overseas?
The man knows the definition of enough...
Doesn't surprise me that he gets about as much credit for his investing acumen as he does for his understanding of the true causes of our current malaise.
+1 :idea:

Since he has enough, he can bet that Military Keynesianism is rapidly running out of steam... :sharebeer
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VictoriaF
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by VictoriaF » Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:59 pm

gulliver wrote:I don't know Ron Paul personally but I bet if he were a member of this forum he would respectfully ask, "no politics, please!"
Ron Paul's job is politics. And so is his son's.

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momar
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by momar » Wed Dec 21, 2011 10:39 pm

market timer wrote:Here's something I don't understand. This man has been a Congressman for decades, a physician before that, and has held what appears to be great bet on gold. Why then is he only worth $2.44-5.46 milllion? It always shocks me how little these public figures are worth. Do most of them have a secret stash overseas?
market timer wrote:Doesn't surprise me that he gets about as much credit for his investing acumen as he does for his understanding of the true causes of our current malaise.
One possible answer to your question was provided by your previous reply.
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Mrs.Feeley
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by Mrs.Feeley » Wed Dec 21, 2011 11:45 pm

market timer wrote:Here's something I don't understand. This man has been a Congressman for decades, a physician before that, and has held what appears to be great bet on gold. Why then is he only worth $2.44-5.46 milllion? It always shocks me how little these public figures are worth. Do most of them have a secret stash overseas?
I find that quite extraordinary too. A local paper did a story on our then-U.S. senator's financial disclosures and omigosh, the man was worth--brace yourself--$350K including the equity in his house! For a man nearing retirement--does the Senate have a pension? I don't think so--that didn't seem good. Although the paper seemed to think that made him one of the rich and privileged, which just tells you what newspaper reporters earn these days. Admittedly some of these politicos have enviable nest-eggs, but either they don't come from their salaries as elected officials or they must not be good at budgeting. Personal budgeting that is. :wink: Or maybe all the spiffy clothes, great haircuts, and plane trips back to their home state destroy any hopes of a personal budget.

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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by ilmartello » Wed Dec 21, 2011 11:59 pm

senators and congressmen do have pensions actually.....

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Mrs.Feeley
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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by Mrs.Feeley » Thu Dec 22, 2011 12:15 am

ilmartello wrote:senators and congressmen do have pensions actually.....
I had no idea. Do they have to serve a specified number of terms in order to be vested? :wink:

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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by Silence Dogood » Thu Dec 22, 2011 12:31 am

ilmartello wrote:senators and congressmen do have pensions actually.....
Apparently (according to Wikipedia) Ron Paul does not participate in the Congressional pension program.

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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by Epsilon Delta » Thu Dec 22, 2011 12:50 am

CaliJim wrote:I'm biting my tongue. It is hard not to talk about politics......
Your restrain is appreciated. I'll also extend my appreciation to the legions who bit even harder and didn't post at all. :sharebeer

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Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

Post by ilmartello » Thu Dec 22, 2011 1:17 am

Mrs.Feeley wrote:
ilmartello wrote:senators and congressmen do have pensions actually.....
I had no idea. Do they have to serve a specified number of terms in order to be vested? :wink:
actually, yes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_pension

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