Long-term, are you bullish or bearish on the U.S. dollar?

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Will the greenback strengthen or weaken?

Strengthen
3
21%
Strengthen
3
21%
Weaken
4
29%
Weaken
4
29%
 
Total votes: 14

newbie001
Posts: 402
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Post by newbie001 »

Long term, I'm extremely bearish on the US economy. But I'm agnostic on US stocks, since the larger companies get so much revenue from overseas now. Also agnostic on the dollar, since I don't remotely understand currency valuation, its relationship to interest rates, etc. Even if you think the U.S. is in permanent decline, as I do, "there is a great deal of ruin in a nation."
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Zander
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Post by Zander »

The US Dollar is the tallest midget in the circus.
newbie001
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Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2008 1:50 am

Post by newbie001 »

Zander wrote:The US Dollar is the tallest midget in the circus.

Ha, true. Simpson and Bowles in testimony before some congressional committee called the U.S. "the best-looking horse in the glue factory."
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frugalhen
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Post by frugalhen »

Zander wrote:The US Dollar is the tallest midget in the circus.
lol, or the cleanest dirty shirt! Well stated!
"get out and live, you are dead an awfully long time" - Jimmy Demaret
rylemdr
Posts: 352
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2011 6:10 am

Post by rylemdr »

Whether you're a bull or a bear, just remember not to be a hog :)
HongKonger
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Location: Deep in the Balkans

Post by HongKonger »

allsop wrote:
Edit: A couple of decades ago I met an English gentleman living in Germany and he said he thought that England had the administration and the attitudes as if they still where an Empire. Once they shed that they would be much better off.
Whilst here in the former British colony of Hong Kong, the growing eradication of British style administration is increasingly mourned by the man on the street.
Valuethinker
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Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am

Post by Valuethinker »

allsop wrote:
Valuethinker wrote: What is left is tatters. The Commonwealth, a talking shop. Our former colony in America far surpassed us, and the Indian one on the horizon.
All nations have their zenith. Once upon a time Sweden was a major power engaged in various brutal wars in Europe. Before that Norwegian Vikings made their mark on your island, and according to legends stole all the beautiful women with everlasting effects :-)

I'd say that UK have done very well after being dethroned as an empire, despite the hardships of two WW.

Edit: A couple of decades ago I met an English gentleman living in Germany and he said he thought that England had the administration and the attitudes as if they still where an Empire. Once they shed that they would be much better off.
There is a longlasting disdain of industry (over trade and finance) that has hurt our economy very badly.

Gentlemen become bankers or lawyers. And engineers are seen as slightly geeky and not serious.

In any area like advertising, media, finance where a slightly piratical approach is favoured, Brits excel.

Building cars? We are one of the largest car makers in Europe, but we do it for Japanese and German companies (and Indian, now).

German construction skills and techniques are about 30 years ahead.
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Amigo7
Posts: 27
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2011 11:52 am

Post by Amigo7 »

Valuethinker wrote:
RisingSun wrote:
umfundi wrote:To paraphrase Winston Churchill (he was speaking about democracy):

The dollar is the worst investment you can make.

Except for the alternatives.

(I also heard that Churchill said, the Americans always do the right thing. But only after trying every other option.)

Keith

That was 65 years ago. Times have changed. We live in a totally different environment now. Seems that a lot of financial analysts are predicting a very different economic future for America. When Churchill made those statements, China wasn't even on the economic map.
In my lifetime:

- America was doomed, USSR was going to take over the world

- America was doomed, the beatniks were taking over, and the military would stage a coup to restore order, and end democracy

- America was doomed, the Ay-rabs with their oil were going to take over the world, Americans would freeze in the dark

- America was doomed, Germany was the future superpower

- America was doomed, Japan would be the world's largest economy and most powerful country, Japan would remilitarize and dominate Asia

- Dollar was doomed, Euro would surpass the dollar as the world's currency of denomination

- America will be overrun by Mexicans, take up Sharia Law, have hyperinflation, China will dominate the world.....

In other words, I've heard this one a few times before, I remain, shall we say, just a little bit sceptical...

Readers should be aware than in 1900 both Britain and Germany had (serious) plans drawn up to invade the USA. Of course in the 1920s the US drew up war plans to invade Canada, and they probably exist somewhere still...

PS 'Rising Sun' is deeply ironic as a nick, because of course the 'Rising Sun' that was going to buy up America in the 1980s was.... Japan.

How did that one work out, then?
Sounds like someone that has seen many moons come and go over this great land ...
Topic Author
RisingSun
Posts: 15
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2011 7:05 am

Post by RisingSun »

I just noticed that UUP (FOREX ETF that is bullish on the greenback) has $926 million in assets, whereas UDN (FOREX ETF that is bearish on the greenback) has only $149 million in assets. Guess most investors are bullish.
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baw703916
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Location: Seattle

Post by baw703916 »

Valuethinker wrote: In any area like advertising, media, finance where a slightly piratical approach is favoured, Brits excel.
I couldn't help be reminded of the Monty Python short film Crimson Permanent Assurance. :wink:
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.
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