Have I purchased too early?

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Quarantine
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Have I purchased too early?

Post by Quarantine » Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:19 pm

I had some cash that I've accumulated for about 6 months and decided to invest in VSS (Vanguard FTSE All Wld Ex USSml Cap) 2 weeks ago. This was a week before the deadline for the debt ceiling. I thought about holding off the purchase for a bit just in case the market plunges and I can get a bargain, but then remembered what the posts here mention about market timing and decided to just do it.

I'm investing for the long-term so these huge drops in the market shouldn't bother me. But I'm just a bit disappointed that I've purchased it at a somewhat high price.

I know I'm missing some kinda logic here in my thinking (I also know that none of us could predict the future), but I'm kicking myself at missing this huge bargain of an opportunity. Any way to make me feel better? >_>

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fishnskiguy
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Re: Have I purchased too early?

Post by fishnskiguy » Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:23 pm

Quarantine wrote:I had some cash that I've accumulated for about 6 months and decided to invest in VSS (Vanguard FTSE All Wld Ex USSml Cap) 2 weeks ago. This was a week before the deadline for the debt ceiling. I thought about holding off the purchase for a bit just in case the market plunges and I can get a bargain, but then remembered what the posts here mention about market timing and decided to just do it.

I'm investing for the long-term so these huge drops in the market shouldn't bother me. But I'm just a bit disappointed that I've purchased it at a somewhat high price.

I know I'm missing some kinda logic here in my thinking (I also know that none of us could predict the future), but I'm kicking myself at missing this huge bargain of an opportunity. Any way to make me feel better? >_>
Three fingers of a good bourbon might do the trick. :lol:

Chris
Trident D-5 SLBM- "When you care enough to send the very best."

JasonR
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Post by JasonR » Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:25 pm

Research tax loss harvesting.

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tc101
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Post by tc101 » Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:27 pm

Three fingers of a good bourbon might do the trick.
Excellent advice. I may hire you as my investment adviser.
. | The most important thing you should know about me is that I am not an expert.

Quarantine
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Post by Quarantine » Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:28 pm

JasonR wrote:Research tax loss harvesting.
Unfortunately I'm not based in the States, and my country does not impose any capital gains tax, so I don't think it would be applicable to me? Or.. does it?

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rob
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Post by rob » Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:37 pm

tc101 wrote:
Three fingers of a good bourbon might do the trick.
Excellent advice. I may hire you as my investment adviser.
lol agree... My old dentist had a similar cure for teething babies.... a shot of brandy... rub some of the kids gums and drink the rest - repeat as necessary :-)
| Rob | Its a dangerous business going out your front door. - J.R.R.Tolkien

Ben24
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Post by Ben24 » Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:42 pm

Im in the same boat. I bought vb @ 80. Its down big. Very big, 24% in one month. Lucky it was a very small purchase. If we go into a recession im lookin at 60-70% losses at least. I will hold it through it all though.

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monkey_business
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Post by monkey_business » Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:48 pm

tc101 wrote:
Three fingers of a good bourbon might do the trick.
Excellent advice. I may hire you as my investment adviser.
Also a great way to reduce your risk tolerance :P

Quarantine
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Post by Quarantine » Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:50 pm

Ben24 wrote:Im in the same boat. I bought vb @ 80. Its down big. Very big, 24% in one month. Lucky it was a very small purchase. If we go into a recession im lookin at 60-70% losses at least. I will hold it through it all though.
Yeah kinda kicking myself at that. I guess a little market timing (cue horror gasps) doesn't hurt. >_>

That said, I'll be holding it through like you and read/watch/listen as little as I can about the market.

Bourbon's not my thing - might go for wine instead. ;)

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norookie
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Post by norookie » Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:58 pm

:? DCA
" Wealth usually leads to excess " Cicero 55 b.c

John2525
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Post by John2525 » Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:03 pm

Anybody know if tomorrow would be a good day to buy the vanguard small cap index?

Quarantine
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Post by Quarantine » Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:07 pm

norookie wrote::? DCA
I can't really DCA. Pasting this from another topic I posted a few days ago:

Because I'm not from the States, and adding in fresh money every month would be costly in terms of bank fees etc, I decided to accumulate the extra money I have and invest every 6 months.

John - I'd say now is a good time compared to my purchase 2 weeks ago.

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MekongTrader
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Re: Have I purchased too early?

Post by MekongTrader » Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:29 pm

Quarantine wrote:I had some cash that I've accumulated for about 6 months and decided to invest in VSS (Vanguard FTSE All Wld Ex USSml Cap) 2 weeks ago. This was a week before the deadline for the debt ceiling. I thought about holding off the purchase for a bit just in case the market plunges and I can get a bargain, but then remembered what the posts here mention about market timing and decided to just do it.

I'm investing for the long-term so these huge drops in the market shouldn't bother me. But I'm just a bit disappointed that I've purchased it at a somewhat high price.

I know I'm missing some kinda logic here in my thinking (I also know that none of us could predict the future), but I'm kicking myself at missing this huge bargain of an opportunity. Any way to make me feel better? >_>
You say that you are 'disappointed' that you have purchased at a somewhat high price.

I am somewhat in the same boat. As per my target allocation I had to rebalance last Friday and bought VTI and VEU. In hindsight I could be 'disappointed' because if I would have bought today I'd have paid almost 7% less. Looking at how Asian markets are zooming down right now, my Friday purchases may even cause more 'disappointment'.

I cannot be 'disappointed' when investing in the stock market and I have to keep all feelings and emotions out of it.

On the contrary it is alright to be 'disappointed' when I book a 2-week beach holiday and it rains throughout the stay. This is where 'disappointment' is deserved.

I knew that investing in the stock market is very dangerous and I risk loosing a lot of money. As such I always assume worst-case scenario. This market freefall can easily be -30%. Or 50%, doesn't matter, I'm prepared. Last night I ran a scenario if this drop is 50% and how I'd do in $-terms. Not pretty but hey, I knew all along what it can be like. It's really all about risk tolerance.

As such, don't sweat over it and stay the course.

Good luck

MT
Last edited by MekongTrader on Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Trader007
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Post by Trader007 » Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:29 pm

Could be a bounce but long term (years) it´s not a time for buy and hold.

GammaPoint
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Post by GammaPoint » Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:32 pm

Trader007 wrote:Could be a bounce but long term (years) it´s not a time for buy and hold.
How do you figure?

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daytona084
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Re: Have I purchased too early?

Post by daytona084 » Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:35 pm

MekongTrader wrote:
I cannot be 'disappointed' when investing in the stock market and I have to keep all feelings and emotions out of it.

On the contrary it is alright to be 'disappointed' when I book a 2-week beach holiday and it rains throughout the stay. This is where 'disappointment' is deserved.

I knew that investing in the stock market is very dangerous and I risk loosing a lot of money. As such I always assume worst-case scenario. This market freefall can easily be -30%. Or 50%, doesn't matter, I'm prepared. Last night I ran a scenario if this drop is 50% and how I'd do in $-terms. Not pretty but hey, I knew all along what it can be like. It's really all about risk tolerance.

As such, don't sweat over it and stay the course.

Good luck

MT
Good post! Thanks!

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Trader007
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Post by Trader007 » Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:41 pm

GammaPoint wrote:
Trader007 wrote:Could be a bounce but long term (years) it´s not a time for buy and hold.
How do you figure?
Cycles and this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjFQLGVIJak

Avo
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Post by Avo » Tue Aug 09, 2011 1:28 am

Trader007 wrote:
GammaPoint wrote:
Trader007 wrote:Could be a bounce but long term (years) it´s not a time for buy and hold.
How do you figure?
Cycles and this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjFQLGVIJak
Wow, I'm just amazed that your video is of peak-oil doommeister Richard Heinberg. I'm in the camp that thinks that resource depletion is a very serious problem, but Heinberg is WAY over the top. See, e.g.,

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/200 ... nberg.html

for some choice quotes from Heinberg.

Quarantine
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Re: Have I purchased too early?

Post by Quarantine » Tue Aug 09, 2011 2:34 am

MekongTrader wrote:
Quarantine wrote:I had some cash that I've accumulated for about 6 months and decided to invest in VSS (Vanguard FTSE All Wld Ex USSml Cap) 2 weeks ago. This was a week before the deadline for the debt ceiling. I thought about holding off the purchase for a bit just in case the market plunges and I can get a bargain, but then remembered what the posts here mention about market timing and decided to just do it.

I'm investing for the long-term so these huge drops in the market shouldn't bother me. But I'm just a bit disappointed that I've purchased it at a somewhat high price.

I know I'm missing some kinda logic here in my thinking (I also know that none of us could predict the future), but I'm kicking myself at missing this huge bargain of an opportunity. Any way to make me feel better? >_>
You say that you are 'disappointed' that you have purchased at a somewhat high price.

I am somewhat in the same boat. As per my target allocation I had to rebalance last Friday and bought VTI and VEU. In hindsight I could be 'disappointed' because if I would have bought today I'd have paid almost 7% less. Looking at how Asian markets are zooming down right now, my Friday purchases may even cause more 'disappointment'.

I cannot be 'disappointed' when investing in the stock market and I have to keep all feelings and emotions out of it.

On the contrary it is alright to be 'disappointed' when I book a 2-week beach holiday and it rains throughout the stay. This is where 'disappointment' is deserved.

I knew that investing in the stock market is very dangerous and I risk loosing a lot of money. As such I always assume worst-case scenario. This market freefall can easily be -30%. Or 50%, doesn't matter, I'm prepared. Last night I ran a scenario if this drop is 50% and how I'd do in $-terms. Not pretty but hey, I knew all along what it can be like. It's really all about risk tolerance.

As such, don't sweat over it and stay the course.

Good luck

MT
Thanks for this piece of valuable advice MT, appreciate it! I'm still thankful for you for giving me great pointers when I just got started here about 6 months ago. :)

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MekongTrader
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Re: Have I purchased too early?

Post by MekongTrader » Tue Aug 09, 2011 2:43 am

Quarantine wrote:
MekongTrader wrote:
Quarantine wrote:I had some cash that I've accumulated for about 6 months and decided to invest in VSS (Vanguard FTSE All Wld Ex USSml Cap) 2 weeks ago. This was a week before the deadline for the debt ceiling. I thought about holding off the purchase for a bit just in case the market plunges and I can get a bargain, but then remembered what the posts here mention about market timing and decided to just do it.

I'm investing for the long-term so these huge drops in the market shouldn't bother me. But I'm just a bit disappointed that I've purchased it at a somewhat high price.

I know I'm missing some kinda logic here in my thinking (I also know that none of us could predict the future), but I'm kicking myself at missing this huge bargain of an opportunity. Any way to make me feel better? >_>
You say that you are 'disappointed' that you have purchased at a somewhat high price.

I am somewhat in the same boat. As per my target allocation I had to rebalance last Friday and bought VTI and VEU. In hindsight I could be 'disappointed' because if I would have bought today I'd have paid almost 7% less. Looking at how Asian markets are zooming down right now, my Friday purchases may even cause more 'disappointment'.

I cannot be 'disappointed' when investing in the stock market and I have to keep all feelings and emotions out of it.

On the contrary it is alright to be 'disappointed' when I book a 2-week beach holiday and it rains throughout the stay. This is where 'disappointment' is deserved.

I knew that investing in the stock market is very dangerous and I risk loosing a lot of money. As such I always assume worst-case scenario. This market freefall can easily be -30%. Or 50%, doesn't matter, I'm prepared. Last night I ran a scenario if this drop is 50% and how I'd do in $-terms. Not pretty but hey, I knew all along what it can be like. It's really all about risk tolerance.

As such, don't sweat over it and stay the course.

Good luck

MT
Thanks for this piece of valuable advice MT, appreciate it! I'm still thankful for you for giving me great pointers when I just got started here about 6 months ago. :)
No problem lah

MT 8-)

Quarantine
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Re: Have I purchased too early?

Post by Quarantine » Tue Aug 09, 2011 2:49 am

MekongTrader wrote:No problem lah

MT 8-)
Ah, the ubiquitous Malaysian and at once confusing "lah". :lol:

wriggly
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Re: Have I purchased too early?

Post by wriggly » Tue Aug 09, 2011 2:56 am

Quarantine wrote:
I'm investing for the long-term so these huge drops in the market shouldn't bother me. But I'm just a bit disappointed that I've purchased it at a somewhat high price.

I know I'm missing some kinda logic here in my thinking (I also know that none of us could predict the future), but I'm kicking myself at missing this huge bargain of an opportunity. Any way to make me feel better? >_>
Get used to it. Whenever you add money, you'll look a week later and kick yourself for missing a cheaper price, or high-five yourself for getting in before the rise. This will occur whatever the magnitude of the change. Sometime you win, sometimes you lose.

If you look two weeks later, you'll often have the opposite effect. Unfortunately this time is not one of those times.

Print off a multi-decade graph of the stockmarket including dividends and see how no matter when you bought, even if it was a peak at the time, it was a great deal 20 years later, and often sooner than that.

Quarantine
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Re: Have I purchased too early?

Post by Quarantine » Tue Aug 09, 2011 5:33 am

wriggly wrote:
Quarantine wrote:
I'm investing for the long-term so these huge drops in the market shouldn't bother me. But I'm just a bit disappointed that I've purchased it at a somewhat high price.

I know I'm missing some kinda logic here in my thinking (I also know that none of us could predict the future), but I'm kicking myself at missing this huge bargain of an opportunity. Any way to make me feel better? >_>
Get used to it. Whenever you add money, you'll look a week later and kick yourself for missing a cheaper price, or high-five yourself for getting in before the rise. This will occur whatever the magnitude of the change. Sometime you win, sometimes you lose.

If you look two weeks later, you'll often have the opposite effect. Unfortunately this time is not one of those times.

Print off a multi-decade graph of the stockmarket including dividends and see how no matter when you bought, even if it was a peak at the time, it was a great deal 20 years later, and often sooner than that.
Thank you. :) I should definitely bookmark this topic and return to this whenever I have the same doubts again.

Default User BR
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Re: Have I purchased too early?

Post by Default User BR » Tue Aug 09, 2011 12:33 pm

Quarantine wrote:I'm investing for the long-term so these huge drops in the market shouldn't bother me. But I'm just a bit disappointed that I've purchased it at a somewhat high price.
I finally got around to working up a real portfolio, bringing in nearly 100k from the sidelines to implement it -- in the summer of 2007. So don't tell me your tales of bad timing.



Brian

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