Today was a Really Bad Day

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Shikoku
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by Shikoku » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:59 pm

We made two records today for DOW. a) Largest intraday point drops (1,597.08). b) Largest daily point losses (1,175.21). Very interesting time to live!

List of largest daily changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... al_Average
Last edited by Shikoku on Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"I don't worry too much about pointing fingers at the past. I operate on the theory that every saint has a past, every sinner has a future." -- Warren Buffett

tesuzuki2002
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by tesuzuki2002 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:00 pm

stlutz wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:12 pm
If I remember the definition correctly, I don't think today quite qualifies--doesn't it have to be a 2.5% drop? :wink:
Bingo!

ankylosaurus
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by ankylosaurus » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:26 pm

Yes it was. My child has a classmate who just found out that his mother has 1 year to live. The boy is 5 years old, one of 4 children, in the nicest family. So sad. That's a bad day. Whatever the market did today seems not to matter by comparison.

inbox788
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by inbox788 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:27 pm

Shikoku wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:59 pm
We made two records today for DOW. a) Largest intraday point drops (1,597.08). b) Largest daily point losses (1,175.21). Very interesting time to live!

List of largest daily changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... al_Average
Imagine if we made the other list, higher percentage drop. Even the twentieth place is nearly 7% drop! It might be worse if circuit breakers kick in and a bigger drop happens over several days.

freeflowme
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by freeflowme » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:46 pm

bg5 wrote:
Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:46 am
Gents,

It is very difficult to time the market. There is nothing wrong with having a little cash set aside for the right opportunities. Now this will make some of you laugh. I threw 50K into VTSAX on Thursday. The very next day the DOW drops over 600 pts and has one of the worst days we have seen in 7 or 8 years.

Some will say....BG5 your an idiot and you knew a correction was coming. Maybe they have a point....but those same people were probably saying the same thing a few months ago when the DOW was 19,000.

Case in point is you cannot time the market.....those who do usually get bit by a SNAKE. I have another 30-40K parked in a money market account for the market and I will probably wait a bit to see what happens here in the next few weeks.

Bottom line is even the true professionals cannot time it right. Play the stock market for the long hall and go on and enjoy the things in life that matter. Early on in my life I was jumping in and out......guess what....If I had just stayed the course I would be in alot better shape.

With that being said I am doing fine in life but trying to time the market is just to darn tough.

My 50K investment is down around $1500......big deal .....life goes on and I am confident in 10-20 years that investment will be doing just fine.

Cheers and best of luck to everyone out there!
Early on I read (I think in Money magazine) that you can do one of three things:

(1) Invest early in the year
(2) Invest evenly throughout the year
(3) Try to time the market

They demonstrated that over time doing #1 will earn you more money than the other options.

So, I've always parked some cash and dumped it in the market every January when the new tax year begins. In years where the market's been doing well leading into January, I fear that it'll decline right after. Having 20k or whatever one day and having it be worth 18k or honestly even a penny less the very next day makes me feel sick. I hate thinking about how hard I worked for each of those dollars. I know it'll correct itself in time, but waiting until it's worth over 20k again feels painstaking. Maybe the market'll be down in the next few months when my next infusion of cash is available to go in and I can happen to buy low this time and average things out.

Tl; dr - I know things'll work themselves out, but waiting for them to do so sucks.

WhyAmeriprise
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by WhyAmeriprise » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:18 pm

Today was just what I needed to re-open the dialog with the Financial Advisor.
I reiterated that if the market was correcting downwards, that it made no sense to stay in a proprietary account with proprietary subaccounts. If the market will bounce back from the "minor bump", then why wouldn't I want to maximize the bouncing back by not having the variable annuity overhead?
The Financial Advisor fired back a comment that the RoR didn't matter if I didn't have enough saved. I talked about apples, got oranges.

Moment of clarity - he defends the variable annuity because it's a proprietary account with proprietary subaccounts. I think he knows that if I even start to look at SPS, that at that point I can go anywhere. (I have, and even in the SPS disclosure, Ameriprise puts it in writing that if you're not an active trader, that SPS might not be the right product)

I thought about it, and on the train ride home I called HQ and gave them the instruction to surrender the variable annuity product, with the proceeds being transferred into the existing all-cash Roth IRA. Ameriprise says that the funds will be in the "parent" Roth IRA by Thursday.
I'm either going to do Vanguard direct, or do Merrill Edge using Vanguard ETFs. I talk to Merrill Edge on Wednesday night. I may pay a couple of $6.95 trade fees to put the money to work, but there will be enough transferred so that future purchases will not incur fees.

Today was a bad day for financial returns, and I'm not looking forward to tomorrow, but today was what I needed to sell off the Ameriprise RAVA, against the FA's wishes, but I will be free to enjoy the upside without his headwind!

student
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by student » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:27 pm

WhyAmeriprise wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:18 pm
I'm either going to do Vanguard direct, or do Merrill Edge using Vanguard ETFs. I talk to Merrill Edge on Wednesday night. I may pay a couple of $6.95 trade fees to put the money to work, but there will be enough transferred so that future purchases will not incur fees.
When you open a new account, they will give you some free trades to start with. If it is not in the offer, ask for it.

mikeshep
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by mikeshep » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:32 pm

I had accumulated 1.9m at the high several months ago...
Am down about 55k in a week's time as of the Monday close
Ratio since 2009 of about 40% equity/55% bond funds.

My FA advises doing nothing. Hope he's right.
Last edited by mikeshep on Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:45 am, edited 2 times in total.

fanmail
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by fanmail » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:33 pm

Tuesday early indications are another RBD. Prices subject to change.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by Doom&Gloom » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:40 pm

ankylosaurus wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:26 pm
Yes it was. My child has a classmate who just found out that his mother has 1 year to live. The boy is 5 years old, one of 4 children, in the nicest family. So sad. That's a bad day. Whatever the market did today seems not to matter by comparison.
No, it didn't. Thanks for the reminder.

z3r0c00l
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by z3r0c00l » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:46 pm

Shikoku wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:59 pm
We made two records today for DOW. a) Largest intraday point drops (1,597.08). b) Largest daily point losses (1,175.21). Very interesting time to live!

List of largest daily changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... al_Average
Was telling everyone today that nominal decline doesn't mean anything with markets so high. This isn't even close to the top 20 worst days, can't get too excited yet.

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Wildebeest
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by Wildebeest » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:59 pm

Every day is a really bad day, if you do not have any money saved to invest.

I count myself lucky that we have money in the stock market and we have no payday loans, credit card debt etc and that if I take the day to day approach I can make myself miserable ( if I have a tendency to see the glass half empty). If I take the 20 year approach or 40 year approach, today, tomorrow or next year or the next 5 years do not matter. ( Unless we are in the equivalent of 1917 Russia's stock market / Black Swan).

Stay the course. Invest you must, if you want to become financial independent. Invest through the lows will work so much better.
The Golden Rule: One should treat others as one would like others to treat oneself.

stocknoob4111
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by stocknoob4111 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:02 pm

DOW Futures are down -600 again... [(removed) --admin LadyGeek] This does not appear to be a pullback but a full on crash, perhaps 30-40% we will see...

mikeshep
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by mikeshep » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:10 pm

and so. if you've got a conservative 60/40 FI to Equity port. ... are you gonna 'do anything' ?

what would THAT be?

ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by ImUrHuckleberry » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:19 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:02 pm
DOW Futures are down -600 again... [(removed) --admin LadyGeek] This does not appear to be a pullback but a full on crash, perhaps 30-40% we will see...
Or perhaps not, who knows?

JC565
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by JC565 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:04 pm

Today was a great day!! Buy buy buy! :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag but I'm young so different perspective

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gilgamesh
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by gilgamesh » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:25 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:02 pm
DOW Futures are down -600 again... [(removed) --admin LadyGeek] This does not appear to be a pullback but a full on crash, perhaps 30-40% we will see...
If DOW drops another 600 points, the current chain of losses can finally be called a correction right? We would have reached a loss of 10% from high... Do corrections always lead to bear markets for us to worry about a 20% loss? Don't think so - not always...30-40%? That's even less known....crash is a single day 10% loss, still unknown.

I don't have enough data to tell me, even if we have a market correction that will be followed by a crash or 30-40% loss...corrections happen about once a year, others don't always follow it...extrapolating from a potential correction to all else is unfounded.

It can be a correction or not that bad...or it may lead to a bear market, may lead to a crash of 10% in a day or an overall loss of 30-40% or even more...or it can stop tomorrow and go up two digits for 2018...just don't know...but luckily we are bogleheads, so our AA/life plan is designed for all of these eventualities, right?
Last edited by gilgamesh on Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.

fanmail
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by fanmail » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:30 pm

Dow futures are now over 13% off the highs.

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Gort
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by Gort » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:43 pm

I have everthing in tax-deferred IRA with VSMGX (Life Strategy Moderate Growth) for past 10 years. Will keep it there for the next 30 (if I live that long). Sleeping well and doing other things besides thinking about the market.

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whodidntante
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by whodidntante » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:13 am

Feels good, doesn't it?

Keepcalm
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by Keepcalm » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:18 am

I only invest what I can afford to lose and what I will not need for another 20+ years, so I see this situation as more of an opportunity than anything. I'm also 100% equities (domestic).

However I know not everyone is 31 and I hope everyone ends up ok on the other end of whatever this is.

Times like these you really begin to see how much these forums mean to you. For me anyway, it's nice being around the community when volatility really shows its face. Like weathering out a zombie apocalypse together.

Gnirk
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by Gnirk » Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:46 am

We're retired, and since we have no "new money" to add to our portfolios, these wild roller-coaster rides aren't much fun. Looks like we just have to hold tight and hang on! Today, I'm down 4% overall for my portfolio from the high, and at the high was only 38% equities.

ivk5
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by ivk5 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:03 am

WhyAmeriprise wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:18 pm
Today was a bad day for financial returns, and I'm not looking forward to tomorrow, but today was what I needed to sell off the Ameriprise RAVA, against the FA's wishes, but I will be free to enjoy the upside without his headwind!
Congrats on your liberation! :sharebeer

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triceratop
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by triceratop » Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:25 am

Great news: my portfolio lost today the amount my car is worth. Now granted, the car is a 2001 civic with nearly 300,000 miles on it, but I'll take what I can get. I was worried I was splurging and had bought too much car until yesterday's (and today's, judging based on future markets) decline. :D
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

nps
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by nps » Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:19 am

bg5 wrote:
Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:46 am
Case in point is you cannot time the market.....those who do usually get bit by a SNAKE. I have another 30-40K parked in a money market account for the market and I will probably wait a bit to see what happens here in the next few weeks.
How is that not timing? You have money to invest but are waiting to see what happens. What outcome are you waiting for?
freeflowme wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:46 pm
Early on I read (I think in Money magazine) that you can do one of three things:

(1) Invest early in the year
(2) Invest evenly throughout the year
(3) Try to time the market

They demonstrated that over time doing #1 will earn you more money than the other options.

So, I've always parked some cash and dumped it in the market every January when the new tax year begins.
I suspect they looked at (1) because that's when the clock resets on tax advantaged contributions and possibly because it's also when many people receive bonuses, but not because January is more significant than any other month. Otherwise, it's no different than (3). Is your cash parked because you are waiting for tax advantaged space to open up, or because you think timing your investment at the beginning of the year will earn you more money?

freeflowme
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by freeflowme » Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:49 am

nps wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:19 am
freeflowme wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:46 pm
Early on I read (I think in Money magazine) that you can do one of three things:

(1) Invest early in the year
(2) Invest evenly throughout the year
(3) Try to time the market

They demonstrated that over time doing #1 will earn you more money than the other options.

So, I've always parked some cash and dumped it in the market every January when the new tax year begins.
I suspect they looked at (1) because that's when the clock resets on tax advantaged contributions and possibly because it's also when many people receive bonuses, but not because January is more significant than any other month. Otherwise, it's no different than (3). Is your cash parked because you are waiting for tax advantaged space to open up, or because you think timing your investment at the beginning of the year will earn you more money?
The former. I think they demonstrated that, on average, investing a lump as early as you’re able will earn you more than investing in equal contributions throughout the year, simply by virtue of getting more money in the market sooner, not because January happens to be a particularly advantageous month or anything. Of course some years you dump it in on January 2 and it happens to be buying high, other years the market might grow every single day for the rest of the year. Since that be predicted, still best to just get in early - on average that’ll earn you the most (again this is my recollection of that article that has informed most of my contributions - perhaps it’s flawed).

EDIT: I totally took for granted that, yes, I’m thinking with regards to tax-advantages accounts, as that’s all I’ve ever invested in, otherwise it wouldn’t make sense to wait to invest. But, yeah, with regard to new year’s contribution limits...

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tennisplyr
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by tennisplyr » Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:49 am

Shikoku wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:59 pm
We made two records today for DOW. a) Largest intraday point drops (1,597.08). b) Largest daily point losses (1,175.21). Very interesting time to live!

List of largest daily changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... al_Average
These ONLY exist because we have record high indices.....put things in perspective.
Those who move forward with a happy spirit will find that things always work out.

vested1
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by vested1 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:16 am

I've been surprisingly calm during this recent drop, retired two years ago last week. We rebalanced to 60/40 stocks to bonds, and crossed a significant milestone about 2 weeks ago now. No plan to change AA. The previous milestone, once passed, is now a new goal. We're still up nearly twice what we've withdrawn since the beginning of retirement.

Although we have no "dry powder" to pour into stocks I suppose we could rebalance into a higher stock percentage, but we won't do that either because I consider that market timing. Some here don't, but I wonder if they are retired. Having withdrawals from same-as-cash to meet expenses for the next 4.5 years until age 70 and final SS filing makes temporary dips more academic than anything else. We couldn't do that without my wife's pension, or our fortune of having been born at precisely the right time to avoid the changes to SS rules that took effect in 2016.

My IPS says that since our expenses & discretionary will be met at my age 70 with pension and SS, even if our retirement savings are cut in half by my age 70 our plan will still work. It would even work if retirement savings went to zero by then. This isn't meant to be a gloat, but merely an example of the advantages of making a plan for the worst case scenario.

I can see a justification for nervousness by those who don't create a contingency plan that takes a 50% drop in equities into account, or who rely entirely on withdrawals from their portfolio. But then again, that anxiety is what VPW (Variable Percentage Withdrawal) helps to alleviate.

andypanda
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by andypanda » Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:20 am

I checked my taxable account balance at 5:45 this morning while I waited on the coffee to brew. It was the same as it was on 12/15/17 and I was really happy with that balance then and it's still a nice balance now.

Sure, I'd like the $160k back that it's dropped in the past week, but it's still up very nicely from 12 months ago. So there's only one thing to do...

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