Today was a Really Bad Day

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livesoft
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Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by livesoft » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:28 pm

I am asked all the time "How can one tell if a day is a Really Bad Day?"

Did anybody have any problems realizing that today was a Really Bad Day? Do you now know how to tell if a day is a Really Bad Day or not?
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Snowjob
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Post by Snowjob » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:31 pm

I typically just need to look at the portfolio and take my blood preasure :o

Buddtholomew
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Post by Buddtholomew » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:32 pm

Definitely one of the worst days in the market I have personally witnessed in sometime. The question is whether the day was poor enough to warrant some equity purchases.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.

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Boglenaut
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Post by Boglenaut » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:32 pm

Just waiting for Taylor's "Stay the Course" post.

In the meantime, I probabably hit a bunch of rebalancing triggers. I'll check tonight. Good thing I had just rebalanced into bonds the day before this started... even though it seems trivial compared to the drop.

centrifuge41
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Post by centrifuge41 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:33 pm

Yes, today seemed like a really bad day. I can't recall off the top of my head, but this might have been the biggest open to close drop in the S&P 500 since the flash crash.

GLD and SLV were down too. SLV was down over 7%. It looks like bonds are probably the best diversifier. Total Bond ETF was up 0.6% while long term bond ETF was up 2%.

john94549
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by john94549 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:34 pm

livesoft wrote:I am asked all the time "How can one tell if a day is a Really Bad Day?"

Did anybody have any problems realizing that today was a Really Bad Day? Do you now know how to tell if a day is a Really Bad Day or not?
Any day above ground is a really good day. Other days, you're just keeping score. I actually bought some equities today, since sentiment was so negative. I'm a bit of a contrarian, and my re-balance band went off in any event.

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simplesimon
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Post by simplesimon » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:34 pm

centrifuge41 wrote:Yes, today seemed like a really bad day. I can't recall off the top of my head, but this might have been the biggest open to close drop in the S&P 500 since the flash crash.

GLD and SLV were down too. SLV was down over 7%. It looks like bonds are probably the best diversifier. Total Bond ETF was up 0.6% while long term bond ETF was up 2%.
I believe the flash crash recovered to about -3% on the day.

I think this is the biggest single day drop since October 2008 from what I remember.

Edit: Yahoo Finance says December 2008.
Last edited by simplesimon on Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Sam I Am
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Post by Sam I Am » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:36 pm

Message deleted.
Last edited by Sam I Am on Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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tnhooper45
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by tnhooper45 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:36 pm

john94549 wrote:
livesoft wrote:I am asked all the time "How can one tell if a day is a Really Bad Day?"

Did anybody have any problems realizing that today was a Really Bad Day? Do you now know how to tell if a day is a Really Bad Day or not?
Any day above ground is a really good day. Other days, you're just keeping score. I actually bought some equities today, since sentiment was so negative. I'm a bit of a contrarian, and my re-balance band went off in any event.
Nice post John

chaz
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Post by chaz » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:36 pm

Goood day to rebalance.
Chaz | | “Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen | | http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page

hlfo718
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Post by hlfo718 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:37 pm

Still dollar costing into my equity side so I dumped more than normal into three Vanguard funds. Considering this happened pretty much the same time last year where the market went from +10% to -10% and finished up close to 20%, maybe is not so bad. Off course we won't know until year end.

no_name
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Post by no_name » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:37 pm

Sam I Am wrote:It was a bad day. :shock:

But, since I didn't have to sell anything, it wasn't a real bad day.

For some, I'm sure, it was a REALLY, BAD DAY.

Rick
NAH! In every bad situation, there is an opportunity to be made!

Atilla
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Post by Atilla » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:37 pm

I love Really Bad Days. :D

flowerbuyer
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Post by flowerbuyer » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:39 pm

As long as I am on this side of the grass, it's a good day. :lol:

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baw703916
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Post by baw703916 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:39 pm

Anybody know if tomorrow will be a worse day?
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.

Wannaretireearly
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Post by Wannaretireearly » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:40 pm

I rebalanced today. Problem is I tend to over compensate and buy more equities than my AA/IPS suggests on days like this, so its not really 'rebalancing'.

Oh well, hopefully I can reign in my instincts as I get older...I'm sure I'm not the only one :)

YDNAL
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by YDNAL » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:40 pm

livesoft wrote:Did anybody have any problems realizing that today was a Really Bad Day? Do you now know how to tell if a day is a Really Bad Day or not?
Tomorrow may be a Really Badder Day!... or a Really Better Day!

Anyone investing long-term - while working - should continue accumulating one paycheck at a time.
Landy | Be yourself, everyone else is already taken -- Oscar Wilde

xerty24
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Post by xerty24 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:41 pm

When they start closing stock exchanges due to the drop (Italy), that's a good hint it's a Really Bad Day.

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kenyan
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Post by kenyan » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:42 pm

I rebalanced today. It actually would've come earlier, but this recent string of market losses came during a time when my bond allocation rose according to my IPS.

mikep
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Post by mikep » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:47 pm

Yes.. nice side effect of this is lower mortgage rates.. just locked another 15 year 3.625% no cost refinance with NMA.

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kingsnake
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Post by kingsnake » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:48 pm

I bought 3K of VSS today from cash in the MM. No more cash to invest at this time...next paycheck please.

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sclaus
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Post by sclaus » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:49 pm

It is time for me to learn the joys of tax loss harvesting.

chaz
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Post by chaz » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:49 pm

kenyan wrote:I rebalanced today. It actually would've come earlier, but this recent string of market losses came during a time when my bond allocation rose according to my IPS.
I rebalanced today also.
Chaz | | “Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen | | http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page

Wannaretireearly
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Post by Wannaretireearly » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:51 pm

mikep wrote:Yes.. nice side effect of this is lower mortgage rates.. just locked another 15 year 3.625% no cost refinance with NMA.
mikep, was the only cost incurred the $300 app fee? I'm going to have to wait 30 days I believe to refi again, as my loan just closed...

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Lbill
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Post by Lbill » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:53 pm

Knock off another couple thousand from the DOW and it might be worth owning stocks again. Today was a nice start - now I'd like to see some followthrough before the dip-buyers emerge from the woodwork again. Drive a wooden stake through their hearts. . .
"Life can only be understood backward; but it must be lived forward." ~ Søren Kierkegaard | | "You can't connect the dots looking forward; but only by looking backwards." ~ Steve Jobs

AndroAsc
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Post by AndroAsc » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:54 pm

Hmm... how is this a bad day? I'm only seeing a discount of less than 10% from the peak price using a 1-mth history....

mikep
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Post by mikep » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:55 pm

Wannaretireearly wrote:
mikep wrote:Yes.. nice side effect of this is lower mortgage rates.. just locked another 15 year 3.625% no cost refinance with NMA.
mikep, was the only cost incurred the $300 app fee? I'm going to have to wait 30 days I believe to refi again, as my loan just closed...
Yes, but that is refunded at closing. The real costs are $82 recording fee and whatever junk fees from my old loan such as payoff fax fee etc... which usually add up to about $100. Break even is about 3-4 months or so.

You can try another lender - firstib, amerisave, and penfed are all BH-popular choices.

However, today's pricing for me was all the same - so for simplicity I went with NMA since they had my old file and it was a ~10 min call to get it going.
Last edited by mikep on Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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bob90245
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by bob90245 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:55 pm

livesoft wrote:I am asked all the time "How can one tell if a day is a Really Bad Day?"

Did anybody have any problems realizing that today was a Really Bad Day? Do you now know how to tell if a day is a Really Bad Day or not?
If you're still accumulating, its not really a bad day. However, if you are retired (are you retired livesoft?), and you are following the 4% SWR, today's drop is the equivalent to what you might have already spent year to date.
Ignore the market noise. Keep to your rebalancing schedule whether that is semi-annual, annual or trigger bands.

Ben24
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Post by Ben24 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:59 pm

I dont view it as a bad day. If we go into another recession, itll be the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Plus, i probably have .01% as much money in the market as the rest of you. Today is a tremendous first hand experience of this risk involved with equities, with just enough of my money involved to make me take notice.
Last edited by Ben24 on Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

john94549
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Post by john94549 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:59 pm

Folks, a few rules I follow:

(a) Don't fret about your retirement account, so long as you are age-appropriate. If you are age-appropriate, by definition, a stock market plunge won't wipe you out. Indeed, it probably won't impact you much at all;

(b) If you have money in "Mr. Market", then observe your re-balance bands, as frightful as that might seem. The best "investment" my wife ever made was her employer match on her 401K on March 9, 2009 (I kid you not; the match hit on the exact day the market hit bottom); and

(c) keep a year's worth of emergency funds in a savings account and (if retired) fifteen years' worth of living expenses (above and beyond social security, pensions, etc.) in a CD ladder.

Then, sleep well and spoil the grandchildren.

Wannaretireearly
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Post by Wannaretireearly » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:00 pm

mikep wrote:
Wannaretireearly wrote:
mikep wrote:Yes.. nice side effect of this is lower mortgage rates.. just locked another 15 year 3.625% no cost refinance with NMA.
mikep, was the only cost incurred the $300 app fee? I'm going to have to wait 30 days I believe to refi again, as my loan just closed...
Yes, but that is refunded at closing. The real costs are $82 recording fee and whatever junk fees from my old loan such as payoff fax fee etc... which usually add up to about $100. Break even is about 3-4 months or so.

You can try another lender - firstib, amerisave, and penfed are all BH-popular choices.

However, today's pricing for me was all the same - so for simplicity I went with NMA since they had my old file and it was a ~10 min call to get it going.
Thanks mikep...

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SVariance1
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by SVariance1 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:01 pm

livesoft wrote:I am asked all the time "How can one tell if a day is a Really Bad Day?"

Did anybody have any problems realizing that today was a Really Bad Day? Do you now know how to tell if a day is a Really Bad Day or not?
I am not sure why but your post put a smile on my face. I couldn't tell whether this was a serious post or not. Yes today was a bad day. I am sure I will be getting calls about it.
Mike

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paco sabio
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Post by paco sabio » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:01 pm

Great day to make an IRA to Roth IRA cinversion

JasonR
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Post by JasonR » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:03 pm

sclaus wrote:It is time for me to learn the joys of tax loss harvesting.
I actually had the chance to TLH today using specific share identification through Vanguard customer service. I'm a mutual fund guy. Went well.

effillus
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Post by effillus » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:03 pm

Did some rebalancing today. Definitely blood on the street.

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fredflinstone
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Post by fredflinstone » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:08 pm

I am really frightened. I am going to sell all my equities tomorrow.

(I kid.)

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Sheepdog
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Post by Sheepdog » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:17 pm

Even though I live off my investments and have for 13 years, I am past the time of panic. I set it so that I have enough in MM and/or short term bond funds, I don't have to sell any stock containing funds for at least 3 years. That is comforting.
Jim
Just because it isn't your fault doesn't mean it isn't your responsibility....Josh Reid Jones

richard
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Post by richard » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:21 pm

List of really bad days for the S&P 500. Today was the 27th worst since 1950 in percentage terms

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/ ... ff-48.html

wilson08
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Post by wilson08 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:22 pm

Like 1987, doomsday at the time but
eventually just a blimp on the chart.


Wilson

sunnyday
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Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Post by sunnyday » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:23 pm

livesoft wrote:I am asked all the time "How can one tell if a day is a Really Bad Day?"

Did anybody have any problems realizing that today was a Really Bad Day? Do you now know how to tell if a day is a Really Bad Day or not?
Today was a very good day for a margarita!

Wannaretireearly
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Post by Wannaretireearly » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:30 pm

richard wrote:List of really bad days for the S&P 500. Today was the 27th worst since 1950 in percentage terms

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/ ... ff-48.html
wow, 2008 was a really rough year, even though we know that!
I see 2008 listed something like 14 times in the top 30!

We would be really unlucky to see a year like that again anytime soon....

fishndoc
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Post by fishndoc » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:35 pm

My wife was talking with a friend who sells and is very knowledgable about the real estate market - she thinks today is the "nail in the coffin" for the hoped-for recovery in the housing market.

So, might even be an even worse day if your livelihood depends on selling houses.
" Successful investing involves doing just a few things right, and avoiding serious mistakes." - J. Bogle

JasonR
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Post by JasonR » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:37 pm

wilson08 wrote:Like 1987, doomsday at the time but
eventually just a blimp on the chart.


Wilson
Things will get better--1988 turned out to be a goodyear.

richard
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Post by richard » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:40 pm

fishndoc wrote:My wife was talking with a friend who sells and is very knowledgable about the real estate market - she thinks today is the "nail in the coffin" for the hoped-for recovery in the housing market.
Housing prices are still generally above long-term trend, although different areas are in different conditions.
fishndoc wrote:So, might even be an even worse day if your livelihood depends on selling houses.
You may care more about the volume of sales than the prices at which house are sold (obviously there's some inter-relation).

MWCA
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Post by MWCA » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:43 pm

I had a fantastic lunch with a beautiful lady. Wasnt so bad. :)
We are all worms. But I believe that I am a glow-worm.

Gordon
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Stocks on sale

Post by Gordon » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:47 pm

Would you guys buy tomorrow or wait a few more days?????


Gordon

raisin mountaineer
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Really bad day helping me with balancing

Post by raisin mountaineer » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:49 pm

I moved a considerable sum into my G Fund (TSP) on Monday. I still had a ways to go to move enough into bonds or bond-like funds to achieve the balance I am looking for, but it looks like the stock market may be doing it for me.

Am actually feeling a great deal of relief that I pushed "send" late Friday afternoon, after trepidation that I might have done exactly the wrong thing. Could have easily gone the other way.

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empb
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Post by empb » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:51 pm

JasonR wrote:
wilson08 wrote:Like 1987, doomsday at the time but
eventually just a blimp on the chart.


Wilson
Things will get better--1988 turned out to be a goodyear.
The moderation team doesn't take to kindly to poking fun at other members. Tread lightly.

:)

JasonR
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Post by JasonR » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:54 pm

empb wrote:
JasonR wrote:
wilson08 wrote:Like 1987, doomsday at the time but
eventually just a blimp on the chart.


Wilson
Things will get better--1988 turned out to be a goodyear.
The moderation team doesn't take to kindly to poking fun at other members. Tread lightly.

:)
excellent!

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fredflinstone
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Post by fredflinstone » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:56 pm

empb wrote:
JasonR wrote:
wilson08 wrote:Like 1987, doomsday at the time but
eventually just a blimp on the chart.


Wilson
Things will get better--1988 turned out to be a goodyear.
The moderation team doesn't take to kindly to poking fun at other members. Tread lightly.

:)
I for one am tired of all the jokes.

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