When to invest in select SeekingAlpha Alpha Picks?

[finguy47]

I'm a subscriber to SeekingAlpha.com's Alpha Picks. They've assembled a portfolio of stocks that substantially beats the SP500 (for the same timeframe). Alpha Picks started in Summer 2022, I believe. They come out with two new picks every month. They remove past picks whenever their quantitative elements meet certain thresholds. Overall, they suggest their own Alpha Picks portfolio follows a buy and hold strategy.

So, now I'm ready to start a sub-portfolio (about 9% of my whole portfolio) of Alpha Picks but I was wondering if I should just buy "tomorrow" or wait for some other entry criteria (e.g., "buy on the dip"). I ask because some of the specific stocks have already had a nice run-up but are still "quant" rated as Strong Buy - for example, SMCI.

What do you think?

[rkhusky]

I don’t do individual stocks, especially ones that are pushed on the Internet.

[ehh]

What do you think?

I think Bogleheads is the wrong place to ask this question. I don't know where people go for stock picking/market timing guidance. Sorry I am not more helpful.

[RetiredAL]

"When to invest in select SeekingAlpha Alpha Picks?"

IMO, NEVER!

[KlangFool]

Never.

Been there and done that. Lost a lot of money in learning that lesson.

KlangFool

[bendix]

All these websites, be it seekingalpha or macrotrends or... they´re all leading their readers on thin ice. Sure, they´re serving a market and meeting a demand, but chances these stocks will help you outperform the market are very, very, very, very slim. If they could, they´d run an actively managed fund and not some website with 2nd hand market data and uncredentialed analysis and investment advise.

You may not believe it, but this is probably one of the worst things you can do to your money. Better dollar-cost-average into a broad fund of your liking.

[Elysium]

Oh boy! There's a flurry of these posts, we must be near some sort of an all time top, like may be S&P 5000

I am tempted to sell everything and go to cash. But I know better, so will sit tight and watch anything that will unfurl.

[CedarWaxWing]

My guess is that they make most of their money by convincing people to pay them for their newsletter.

After their putting stock A on the list influences others to buy A after they already owned it. To some/many subscribers, the stocks' being newly put on the list is as inspiring as a news report stating that a given stock beat its earnings last quarter.

Paid subscribers and even the free subscribers may be nudging those stock up... but not for long.

[muffins14]

I believe it is a chimpanzee and a dart board

[toddthebod]

I'm a subscriber to SeekingAlpha.com's Alpha Picks. They've assembled a portfolio of stocks that substantially beats the SP500 (for the same timeframe).

How is it these guys aren't a bunch of billionaires by now?

[arcticpineapplecorp.]

there are two things you wrote that gave me pause. can you tell me what's wrong with the following:

They've assembled a portfolio of stocks that substantially beats the SP500 (for the same timeframe).

beats or has beaten?

do you understand the difference?

because a strategy has beaten the S&P500 over a past timeframe, does this automatically mean they will do so in every future timeframe?

if not, what if they don't when you need them to the most?

why would you gamble with underperformance when the market's return is there (guaranteed) for the taking?

Alpha Picks started in Summer 2022, I believe.

do you consider 1 and 1/2 years a solid long term track record when it comes to an investing strategy?

i wouldn't personally.

best of luck. it sounds like you're going to need it.

[Mike Scott]

I would not do this. However, if you are intent on buying into their program then you should follow whatever advice they give you.

[stilllurking]

Should they not be the ones to tell you when to get in an out? I would hope they could put their money where their posts say.

[finguy47]

Thanks everyone. Almost complete agreement from everyone that replied.

[Peculiar_Investor]

Thanks everyone. Almost complete agreement from everyone that replied.

Are you at all surprised given the tagline here is "Investing Advice Inspired by Jack Bogle".

[Hoosier CPA]

Thanks everyone. Almost complete agreement from everyone that replied.

Although virtually all academic evidence shows that the vast majority of stock pickers cannot beat the market over the long run, it seems many of us need to learn this the hard way. I did but with little money involved early on and I studied equity investing in college and should have known better.

[arcticpineapplecorp.]

Thanks everyone. Almost complete agreement from everyone that replied.

Are you at all surprised given the tagline here is "Investing Advice Inspired by Jack Bogle".

It's certainly not "Investing Advice Inspired by Seeking Alpha"

[akrizzle88]

Probably not the best forum to get advice on a stock picking service - but here is a decent review I found:

GL!


https://realworldinvestor.com/alpha-picks-review/

[Wanderingwheelz]

Simply clicking on seekingalpha.com is admitting you’re not serious about investing. Any action past that is risking financial suicide.

[doobiedoo]

I'm a subscriber to SeekingAlpha.com's Alpha Picks. They've assembled a portfolio of stocks that substantially beats the SP500 (for the same timeframe).

How is it these guys aren't a bunch of billionaires by now?

+1
I probably read 20-30 articles/news items on Seeking Alpha every day.
I do occasionally get a good idea from an author. But I ignore portfolios and don't pay for subscriptions.
If somebody could really pick stock winners, why would they share them with you? They would just invest in their stocks and get filthy rich.

[Rocinante Rider]

I think most Bogleheads would agree that the best way for you to make money related to SeekingAlpha would be by cancelling your subscription.

[doobiedoo]

I'm a subscriber to SeekingAlpha.com's Alpha Picks. They've assembled a portfolio of stocks that substantially beats the SP500 (for the same timeframe).

How is it these guys aren't a bunch of billionaires by now?

+1
I probably read 20-30 articles/news items on Seeking Alpha every day.
I do occasionally get a good idea from an author. But I ignore portfolios and don't pay for subscriptions.
If somebody could really pick stock winners, why would they share them with you? They would just invest in their stocks and get filthy rich.

For example, these SA users first got me to consider buying the following stocks:

Code: Select all

Visa   [V]     ChuckXX,
Chubb  [CB]    Jim Sloan,
Cintas [CTAS]  Chuck Walston and Buyandhold 2012.

[BitTooAggressive]

I'm a subscriber to SeekingAlpha.com's Alpha Picks. They've assembled a portfolio of stocks that substantially beats the SP500 (for the same timeframe). Alpha Picks started in Summer 2022, I believe. They come out with two new picks every month. They remove past picks whenever their quantitative elements meet certain thresholds. Overall, they suggest their own Alpha Picks portfolio follows a buy and hold strategy.

So, now I'm ready to start a sub-portfolio (about 9% of my whole portfolio) of Alpha Picks but I was wondering if I should just buy "tomorrow" or wait for some other entry criteria (e.g., "buy on the dip"). I ask because some of the specific stocks have already had a nice run-up but are still "quant" rated as Strong Buy - for example, SMCI.

What do you think?

I have a system for picking the next power ball winning numbers. The only thing is I am not allowed to use it for myself but I am allowed to sell it to you.

[Fat Tails]

You can try it. Use a small percentage of your portfolio. Don't do it in a taxable account as that will surely underperform a buy and hold.

But why wouldn’t a hedge fund, with its vast staff of PhDs, software coders, and traders be doing this with leverage? Beating the s&p 500 with a higher Sharpe ratio is the holy grail of investing.

Please let us know how it works out.