retired@50 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:47 pm
Rom wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:33 pm
One thing that I find interesting is that a 1% difference in return on investment makes very little difference in time to retire: for example using this
Early Retirement Calculator with a 5% return on investment, time to retire is 12.4 years, but with a 6% return on investment, time to retire is 11.9 years. This initially fooled me into thinking that return on investment doesn't make much difference. But if you look at wealth growth after retirement using the table from the article that you linked, the effect becomes much more obvious.
This raises the question of what someone's goals are for investing.
If an investor's only goal is to become financially independent (that is, annual return on investment covers annual expenses), then annual fees wouldn't matter nearly as much, as long as they investor is able to maintain financial independence. But, if an investor also wants to see significant wealth growth after retirement, then obviously annual fees matter significantly.
Would you agree with that conclusion?
No.
To become financially independent while paying a higher annual fee would require more savings (dollars) committed to the portfolio. This means either working longer or saving a higher percentage of wages while working. So, you have to consider the additional years of work, or reduced standard of living from reduced spending during the accumulation phase.
In my book, every dollar spent on costs is a dollar not available for achieving financial independence sooner, or for enjoying a higher standard of living.
If you happen to wind up with too much money, you can always give some away to charity. I'd rather direct my charitable giving as I see fit, rather than have those dollars spent on costs (either during accumulation or during retirement).
Regards,
Some thoughts:
1. Expense ratios are deceptively small numbers. How much difference could 1% or 2% make? The answer is that it shows up when compounding over long periods of time. It's not that big a difference over 10 years. But extend that to 30-40 years or a lifetime of investing and the differences are huge. The reason is compounding.
2. The financial independence calculator is attempting to show the impact of a high savings rate on financial independence. With a 60% savings rate, the target is reached based primarily on savings alone. The high savings rate also reduces the expenses required to support a lifestyle.
This is not the appropriate calculator to use to see the effect of expenses on long-term returns. You should use a compound interest calculator, set the timeframe to 40 years, and use two different rates of return.
3. Returns are not promised to you. Sometimes the stock market has great returns. Sometimes it has terrible returns. We can't predict the actual returns in advance. Instead, we're projecting an average for the returns. This is where the discussion of whether or not an ESG fund has a better return than a vanilla index comes in. Does an ESG strategy have a negative or positive impact on returns, and by how much? OP doesn't want to discuss that issue, but the point is that we don't know until the time period has passed what the impact of the strategy choice was.
4. HOWEVER, expenses ARE guaranteed. The people running the fund are not doing it for free. The expenses in the expense ratio are taken out regardless of whether the market is up or down. We can ABSOLUTELY PREDICT what the impact of a 2% expense ratio is. Simply reduce the long-term compounded return by 2%. The question then becomes whether or not the return of the ESG funds will overcome the difference in expense ratios. Or the real question to you (since that's unknowable) is if the difference between the two expense ratios is small enough to be acceptable.
5. Hopefully, one does not achieve early financial independence in 12 years, then immediately keel over and die. The desire is a long and healthy life. In that case, your investment lifetime (before and after achieving FI) could be 40-50 years or more. THAT's the number you should be using to see the impact of the expenses. Having high expenses might be overcome by a 60% savings rate in a 12 year period, but over a 50 year compounding period the reverse is true.
6. There is a point at which expense ratios are small enough that they don't matter. But I believe that's at the level of 0.03% versus 0%, not comparing 0.03% to 2%. Go to the actual ESG fund you're considering, and use that expense ratio for comparison. Despite discussions of 1% and 2% expense ratios being tossed around, I think the actual numbers are smaller. According to ETF.COM,
What is the average ESG fund expense ratio?
With 50 ETFs traded on the U.S. markets, ESG ETFs have total assets under management of $195.25B. The average expense ratio is 0.41%. ESG ETFs can be found in the following asset classes: Equity.