Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

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livingthedream17
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Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by livingthedream17 »

First off, I recognize this is a very good problem to have :D. I'm just not really sure where to go from here. One of my taxable brokerage holdings (ENPH) is up +28075.96% for a cost basis close to $175k cost of $618 and balance of close to $175k.

I have followed the Boglehead and FIRE investing philosophies for most of my adult life. My spouse and I max out our 401k, ROTH IRAs, HSAs and contribute to our child's 529 along with an additional $1500/mo into taxable brokerage (VTSAX). Over the years I have dabbled in some stocks with some extra money for fun. Yes, I know this doesn't really fly with bogleheads but it's kind of a fun hobby of mine making small bets. Somehow I came across ENPH back in 2015, bought at $6 and then doubled down in 2017 at $0.95! I've taken my original investment and some long term gains to help towards my house down payment

Our total investment balance is at about 18x spending and I'm hoping I can early retire in 7-10 years (I'm 38 now). I'm looking for suggestions or strategies on what to do with this. I don't mind the volatility since we don't need the money and the wife says to just keep holding. Let it ride??
Last edited by livingthedream17 on Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
Tamalak
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by Tamalak »

My policy is that you only buy individual stocks over index funds if you have a concrete reason to believe the stock is underpriced. And then you sell as soon as you no longer have a concrete reason to believe the stock is underpriced (no matter if the stock has gone up or down in the process).

It looks like you were just doing this 'for fun', but this is no longer a 'fun' amount of money. So I would sell immediately!

I don't understand your numbers though. If you bought 175k worth of something that went up by x280, you would have 50 million! Maybe it's x28?
Last edited by Tamalak on Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
MattB
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by MattB »

My first response would be to sell your position and diversify your gains into something like VTSAX. But you haven't posted enough information to support a firm judgement.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by TheTimeLord »

livingthedream17 wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:51 am First off, I recognize this is a very good problem to have :D. I'm just not really sure where to go from here. One of my taxable brokerage holdings (ENPH) is up +28075.96% for a cost basis close to $175k.

I have followed the Boglehead and FIRE investing philosophies for most of my adult life. My spouse and I max out our 401k, ROTH IRAs, HSAs and contribute to our child's 529 along with an additional $1500/mo into taxable brokerage (VTSAX). Over the years I have dabbled in some stocks with some extra money for fun. Yes, I know this doesn't really fly with bogleheads but it's kind of a fun hobby of mine making small bets. Somehow I came across ENPH back in 2015, bought at $6 and then doubled down in 2017 at $0.95! I've taken my original investment and some long term gains to help towards my house down payment

Our total investment balance is at about 18x spending and I'm hoping I can early retire in 7-10 years (I'm 38 now). I'm looking for suggestions or strategies on what to do with this. I don't mind the volatility since we don't need the money and the wife says to just keep holding. Let it ride??
So you have just short of $50 million in ENPH stock? I would sell all but $1 million (or sell all), build a 20 year TIPS ladder to cover my expenses then slowly DCA the rest into a portfolio. Also, pay off your mortgage.
livingthedream17 wrote: Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:00 pm I'm about to refinance my mortgage and I'm looking for suggestions on which rate/lender credit I should choose. The loan cost estimate (A+B+C) is $4152.

Current mortgage:

Orig balance - $360,000
Rate - 3.75%
Curr balance - $353,604

Refinance rate, lender credit:

2.75%, $944
2.875, $3152
2.99%, $5009

We fully intend to live at this house into retirement (30+ years). Which rate option would you choose?
Last edited by TheTimeLord on Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:09 am, edited 2 times in total.
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mikep
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by mikep »

If you make charitable contributions, look into donating it or using a donor advised fund.
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by AlohaBill »

Congratulations!
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by greenspam »

If you don’t want to sell right away, but then again you don’t want to risk losing all that profit, perhaps consider a protective put as an ‘insurance policy’:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pr ... e%20months.
as always, | peace, | greenie.
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

if you didn't have your investment today would you immediately go out and buy this stock in the amount of money that you currently own at it's current price?

if the answer is no, then why are you holding it?

if the answer is yes, then why aren't you buying more?
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HomerJ
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by HomerJ »

I think he means he has 175k in it now... not that his cost basis is 175k

OP, how much do you have in total? How big a percentage of your portfolio is this?

My advice is that a good gambler needs to "know when to walk away (and know when to run)"

Seriously, at some point one has to take some winnings or you really just shouldn't be a gambler at all.

It's got a 200 PE ratio today, it went up 50% in the past month... seems like a good time to sell at least half and lock in SOME gains

It's a solar company that sells the micro-inverters for homes... good business maybe if the current bill passes... but it's next 10 years of growth are already baked into the price...

It's up to you... how will you feel if drops 50% if that bill doesn't pass and you threw away $85,000?
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by TomatoTomahto »

Congrats. I wish that I had invested in ENPH when I bought their panels, battery, controller, etc., but that is not something I do. I also missed TSLA :oops:

Btw, you're welcome :D
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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livingthedream17
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by livingthedream17 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:02 am
livingthedream17 wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:51 am First off, I recognize this is a very good problem to have :D. I'm just not really sure where to go from here. One of my taxable brokerage holdings (ENPH) is up +28075.96% for a cost basis close to $175k.

I have followed the Boglehead and FIRE investing philosophies for most of my adult life. My spouse and I max out our 401k, ROTH IRAs, HSAs and contribute to our child's 529 along with an additional $1500/mo into taxable brokerage (VTSAX). Over the years I have dabbled in some stocks with some extra money for fun. Yes, I know this doesn't really fly with bogleheads but it's kind of a fun hobby of mine making small bets. Somehow I came across ENPH back in 2015, bought at $6 and then doubled down in 2017 at $0.95! I've taken my original investment and some long term gains to help towards my house down payment

Our total investment balance is at about 18x spending and I'm hoping I can early retire in 7-10 years (I'm 38 now). I'm looking for suggestions or strategies on what to do with this. I don't mind the volatility since we don't need the money and the wife says to just keep holding. Let it ride??
So you have just short of $50 million in ENPH stock? I would sell all but $1 million (or sell all), build a 20 year TIPS ladder to cover my expenses then slowly DCA the rest into a portfolio. Also, pay off your mortgage.
livingthedream17 wrote: Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:00 pm I'm about to refinance my mortgage and I'm looking for suggestions on which rate/lender credit I should choose. The loan cost estimate (A+B+C) is $4152.

Current mortgage:

Orig balance - $360,000
Rate - 3.75%
Curr balance - $353,604

Refinance rate, lender credit:

2.75%, $944
2.875, $3152
2.99%, $5009

We fully intend to live at this house into retirement (30+ years). Which rate option would you choose?
I wish! I have 600 shares with a total cost of $618. That number (+28075.96) was copy/pasted right from Vanguard's capital gains view.
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canadianbacon
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by canadianbacon »

Congratulations. I would sell.
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Topic Author
livingthedream17
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by livingthedream17 »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:11 am I think he means he has 175k in it now... not that his cost basis is 175k

OP, how much do you have in total? How big a percentage of your portfolio is this?

My advice is that a good gambler needs to "know when to walk away (and know when to run)"

Seriously, at some point one has to take some winnings or you really just shouldn't be a gambler at all.

It's got a 200 PE ratio today, it went up 50% in the past month... seems like a good time to sell at least half and lock in SOME gains

It's a solar company that sells the micro-inverters for homes... good business maybe if the current bill passes... but it's next 10 years of growth are already baked into the price...

It's up to you... how will you feel if drops 50% if that bill doesn't pass and you threw away $85,000?
Yes, thank you for correcting me. Total investment balance is 1.25M. I agree about knowing when to walk away. I'm thinking I at least sell a portion and move it directly into VTSAX.
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by fisher0815 »

livingthedream17 wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:51 am First off, I recognize this is a very good problem to have :D. I'm just not really sure where to go from here. One of my taxable brokerage holdings (ENPH) is up +28075.96% for a cost basis close to $175k.

I have followed the Boglehead and FIRE investing philosophies for most of my adult life. My spouse and I max out our 401k, ROTH IRAs, HSAs and contribute to our child's 529 along with an additional $1500/mo into taxable brokerage (VTSAX). Over the years I have dabbled in some stocks with some extra money for fun. Yes, I know this doesn't really fly with bogleheads but it's kind of a fun hobby of mine making small bets. Somehow I came across ENPH back in 2015, bought at $6 and then doubled down in 2017 at $0.95! I've taken my original investment and some long term gains to help towards my house down payment

Our total investment balance is at about 18x spending and I'm hoping I can early retire in 7-10 years (I'm 38 now). I'm looking for suggestions or strategies on what to do with this. I don't mind the volatility since we don't need the money and the wife says to just keep holding. Let it ride??
Did you recognized the stock was up like today on Nov 19, 2021 ?
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livingthedream17
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by livingthedream17 »

Yes, its a hobby so I follow it pretty closely
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by Dottie57 »

Bottle of champagne/prosecco and sell.
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greenspam
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by greenspam »

…Perhaps the bigger question is, how do you plan to retire in 7 years at age 45 with only 1.25MM currently invested ?
as always, | peace, | greenie.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by TheTimeLord »

livingthedream17 wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:15 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:02 am
livingthedream17 wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:51 am First off, I recognize this is a very good problem to have :D. I'm just not really sure where to go from here. One of my taxable brokerage holdings (ENPH) is up +28075.96% for a cost basis close to $175k.

I have followed the Boglehead and FIRE investing philosophies for most of my adult life. My spouse and I max out our 401k, ROTH IRAs, HSAs and contribute to our child's 529 along with an additional $1500/mo into taxable brokerage (VTSAX). Over the years I have dabbled in some stocks with some extra money for fun. Yes, I know this doesn't really fly with bogleheads but it's kind of a fun hobby of mine making small bets. Somehow I came across ENPH back in 2015, bought at $6 and then doubled down in 2017 at $0.95! I've taken my original investment and some long term gains to help towards my house down payment

Our total investment balance is at about 18x spending and I'm hoping I can early retire in 7-10 years (I'm 38 now). I'm looking for suggestions or strategies on what to do with this. I don't mind the volatility since we don't need the money and the wife says to just keep holding. Let it ride??
So you have just short of $50 million in ENPH stock? I would sell all but $1 million (or sell all), build a 20 year TIPS ladder to cover my expenses then slowly DCA the rest into a portfolio. Also, pay off your mortgage.
livingthedream17 wrote: Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:00 pm I'm about to refinance my mortgage and I'm looking for suggestions on which rate/lender credit I should choose. The loan cost estimate (A+B+C) is $4152.

Current mortgage:

Orig balance - $360,000
Rate - 3.75%
Curr balance - $353,604

Refinance rate, lender credit:

2.75%, $944
2.875, $3152
2.99%, $5009

We fully intend to live at this house into retirement (30+ years). Which rate option would you choose?
I wish! I have 600 shares with a total cost of $618. That number (+28075.96) was copy/pasted right from Vanguard's capital gains view.
Then the value of your ENPH holding is $175k and your cost basis is $618.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by muffins14 »

Sell, diversify
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by Shallowpockets »

You are anchored now into the profits you have on this stock. Any deviation downward will cause regret. Sure, you may tolerate some downside, but it is still now a perceived loss in your mind. You may say otherwise, but inside, not so much.
How much more could it go up.
Don’t fly too close to the sun.
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livingthedream17
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by livingthedream17 »

greenspam wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:24 am …Perhaps the bigger question is, how do you plan to retire in 7 years at age 45 with only 1.25MM currently invested ?
Note: I said 7-10 years

We'd like to spend about 80k/year so 30x would be $2.4M, but I'd feel more comfortable at 3M.

1.25M over 10 years with a 7% annualized return = about $2.5M without additional contributions.

Across all accounts, we contribute $6500 monthly on average.

Same calc with our additional contributions gets us to $2.7M at 7 years, or $3.6M at 10 years.
stoptothink
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by stoptothink »

greenspam wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:24 am …Perhaps the bigger question is, how do you plan to retire in 7 years at age 45 with only 1.25MM currently invested ?
Not that I'd do it, but many people retire ~45 with $1.25M (or less) invested. OP's invested assets could easily double (or more) in 7yrs.
realclemsongrad
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by realclemsongrad »

livingthedream17 wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:51 am First off, I recognize this is a very good problem to have :D. I'm just not really sure where to go from here. One of my taxable brokerage holdings (ENPH) is up +28075.96% for a cost basis close to $175k cost of $618 and balance of close to $175k.

I have followed the Boglehead and FIRE investing philosophies for most of my adult life. My spouse and I max out our 401k, ROTH IRAs, HSAs and contribute to our child's 529 along with an additional $1500/mo into taxable brokerage (VTSAX). Over the years I have dabbled in some stocks with some extra money for fun. Yes, I know this doesn't really fly with bogleheads but it's kind of a fun hobby of mine making small bets. Somehow I came across ENPH back in 2015, bought at $6 and then doubled down in 2017 at $0.95! I've taken my original investment and some long term gains to help towards my house down payment

Our total investment balance is at about 18x spending and I'm hoping I can early retire in 7-10 years (I'm 38 now). I'm looking for suggestions or strategies on what to do with this. I don't mind the volatility since we don't need the money and the wife says to just keep holding. Let it ride??
Congratulations that is amazing feat. What got you interested in ENPH? Did you buy their products? Just curious on what got you going in this direction.

Time to open that Champaign bottle!!
av111
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by av111 »

livingthedream17 wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:20 am Yes, its a hobby so I follow it pretty closely
When the company was down, you bought more . When it went up you did not sell. Either way you got a tiger by the tail. If you sell and it goes up you will have a lot of regret. If you don't sell and it goes down you will hate it. So 50% chance to win and 50% chance to lose. Stock will move independently of your desires

Sell when you need money
AV111
jjj_22
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by jjj_22 »

Sell it, obviously.

This seems like more a humblebrag than a question.
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livingthedream17
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by livingthedream17 »

realclemsongrad wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:49 am
livingthedream17 wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:51 am First off, I recognize this is a very good problem to have :D. I'm just not really sure where to go from here. One of my taxable brokerage holdings (ENPH) is up +28075.96% for a cost basis close to $175k cost of $618 and balance of close to $175k.

I have followed the Boglehead and FIRE investing philosophies for most of my adult life. My spouse and I max out our 401k, ROTH IRAs, HSAs and contribute to our child's 529 along with an additional $1500/mo into taxable brokerage (VTSAX). Over the years I have dabbled in some stocks with some extra money for fun. Yes, I know this doesn't really fly with bogleheads but it's kind of a fun hobby of mine making small bets. Somehow I came across ENPH back in 2015, bought at $6 and then doubled down in 2017 at $0.95! I've taken my original investment and some long term gains to help towards my house down payment

Our total investment balance is at about 18x spending and I'm hoping I can early retire in 7-10 years (I'm 38 now). I'm looking for suggestions or strategies on what to do with this. I don't mind the volatility since we don't need the money and the wife says to just keep holding. Let it ride??
Congratulations that is amazing feat. What got you interested in ENPH? Did you buy their products? Just curious on what got you going in this direction.

Time to open that Champaign bottle!!
Thanks! In 2015 when oil prices fell significantly, I made a small investment in COP. After the investment, I felt some guilt for investing in this company so I decided to pair it with a solar investment and I fortunately came across ENPH.

One thing I am considering is using the profits to pay for solar for my house.
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nisiprius
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by nisiprius »

Unfortunately, the mere fact that it's up doesn't help you decide what to do.

The traditional advice is: pretend you didn't own the stock and had $175,000 in cash. Would you buy this stock today? Or would you do something different with the $175,000?

Additional advice is consider, not just the stock itself, but your personal situation. Can you use $175,000? Is $175,000 an amount that you are willing to gamble?

The fact that you only paid $618 is wonderful, but it is worth $175,000 now, and you are not risking any less today just because you once paid so little for it.

Personally, given that I am not a person who lives for the excitement of taking financial risk, I'd sell it, and make a mental note to a) congratulate myself on my good fortune, and b) make a firm resolution not to feel regret if you miss out on further gains. You could worry that you are missing out on another 280X increase, i.e. $49 million, and that is possible--but no more likely than the first 280X.

You will find too many stories of people who "made fortunes" taking bold gambles but were unable to keep them. Well, actually you are more likely to hear those stories at the time when they had just made that fortune.
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greenspam
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by greenspam »

livingthedream17 wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:47 am
greenspam wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:24 am …Perhaps the bigger question is, how do you plan to retire in 7 years at age 45 with only 1.25MM currently invested ?
Note: I said 7-10 years

We'd like to spend about 80k/year so 30x would be $2.4M, but I'd feel more comfortable at 3M.

1.25M over 10 years with a 7% annualized return = about $2.5M without additional contributions.

Across all accounts, we contribute $6500 monthly on average.

Same calc with our additional contributions gets us to $2.7M at 7 years, or $3.6M at 10 years.
Hmmmm… 7% annualized return with 8% inflation 😬 anyhow congrats & good luck 🍀 I hope it works out for you

Ps also see my earlier post here about protective puts as insurance…
Last edited by greenspam on Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:25 am, edited 3 times in total.
as always, | peace, | greenie.
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by Valuethinker »

livingthedream17 wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:51 am First off, I recognize this is a very good problem to have :D. I'm just not really sure where to go from here. One of my taxable brokerage holdings (ENPH) is up +28075.96% for a cost basis close to $175k cost of $618 and balance of close to $175k.

I have followed the Boglehead and FIRE investing philosophies for most of my adult life. My spouse and I max out our 401k, ROTH IRAs, HSAs and contribute to our child's 529 along with an additional $1500/mo into taxable brokerage (VTSAX). Over the years I have dabbled in some stocks with some extra money for fun. Yes, I know this doesn't really fly with bogleheads but it's kind of a fun hobby of mine making small bets. Somehow I came across ENPH back in 2015, bought at $6 and then doubled down in 2017 at $0.95! I've taken my original investment and some long term gains to help towards my house down payment

Our total investment balance is at about 18x spending and I'm hoping I can early retire in 7-10 years (I'm 38 now). I'm looking for suggestions or strategies on what to do with this. I don't mind the volatility since we don't need the money and the wife says to just keep holding. Let it ride??
Sell.

I was a dot com millionaire (in pound sterling so $2m in those days). This was in 1999-2000. I did not sell when I could, and eventually sold for less than $50k equivalent. There are others here who were in similar situations (may have had better outcomes). I was probably richer in 2000 than I am in 2022.

Sell, pay the tax, reinvest. It's "bunce" in Yorkshire-speak. Kismet in east coast American. Unforeseen upside.

The Gods of investing have granted you a great boon. You went to the casino and you won.

I usually suggest people split this over 2 tax years. I am not sure I'd wait 4 months so. Maybe for the last 1/3rd of it.

Sell. Just sell. It's not money when it's sitting in a single stock. It cannot be counted as part of your retirement plans or life goals.

(If you really cannot face the "regret" if this thing does a Tesla. Then sell 2/3rds. Then you can ride the last $50k or so).
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livingthedream17
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by livingthedream17 »

greenspam wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:08 am If you don’t want to sell right away, but then again you don’t want to risk losing all that profit, perhaps consider a protective put as an ‘insurance policy’:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pr ... e%20months.
Thank you for this! I'm reading up on it...
illumination
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by illumination »

Absolutely sell it. At the very least, put a stop loss on it or sell a large portion and take the gains off the table. Take the tax hit.

Not quite the same story, but I had a really good friend that worked for a penny stock company that became something of a meme stock. He had been compensated heavily in stock, held close to a million shares. He eventually quit the company and basically thought it was the ultimate pump and dump, had very questionable ethics, etc. Stock went from something like 5 cents a share to $9 in under a year after he had left. Life changing money. But what he do?

He held on to much of it, and it went down over 90% off of its high. He knew the company was absurdly over valued (held a very senior position) but he thought he could squeeze out just a bit more. I BEGGED him to sell as he had told me the stories of what shysters these people were in management. The company is headed to zero now in my opinion. He's sick about it. But it was like he couldn't handle the idea of him selling and it going higher later. Yet just a few months before, he would have done almost anything just to have gotten his money back, much less profit millions.
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by Atgard »

Congratulations! While the 100% logical thing to do is sell it all (even if you believe in picking stocks that are low, you already did that and it's no longer "low"), another perfectly reasonable approach is to sell most of it, lock in a nice chunk of amazing gains, and keep a small amount as play money, where if it somehow goes up another 1000%+, you are still quite happy... but if it goes back down, no big deal since you already are way ahead of the game.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by Triple digit golfer »

I would recommend the same thing I always do, and that is to not hold any individual stocks.

Whether you've made a killing or lost your shirt is irrelevant here. I view my portfolio as a big bucket of cash and ask myself how I want that bucket of cash invested. At no point would I say I want to hold an individual stock.

So, sell it, but not because it's gone up or any other reason besides the fact that I don't recommend holding individual stocks.
chassis
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by chassis »

livingthedream17 wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:51 am First off, I recognize this is a very good problem to have :D. I'm just not really sure where to go from here. One of my taxable brokerage holdings (ENPH) is up +28075.96% for a cost basis close to $175k cost of $618 and balance of close to $175k.

I have followed the Boglehead and FIRE investing philosophies for most of my adult life. My spouse and I max out our 401k, ROTH IRAs, HSAs and contribute to our child's 529 along with an additional $1500/mo into taxable brokerage (VTSAX). Over the years I have dabbled in some stocks with some extra money for fun. Yes, I know this doesn't really fly with bogleheads but it's kind of a fun hobby of mine making small bets. Somehow I came across ENPH back in 2015, bought at $6 and then doubled down in 2017 at $0.95! I've taken my original investment and some long term gains to help towards my house down payment

Our total investment balance is at about 18x spending and I'm hoping I can early retire in 7-10 years (I'm 38 now). I'm looking for suggestions or strategies on what to do with this. I don't mind the volatility since we don't need the money and the wife says to just keep holding. Let it ride??

Well done. Sell a portion and stay invested with them. They are in the solar and battery world which is going through big transformation and growth.

You may already know this - posters on this site, especially high post count posters, skew far right on the life experience bell curve (more than twice your age) and far left on the risk tolerance bell curve. This isn’t good or bad, simply information to take into account.
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Watty
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by Watty »

If you would not buy that much stock today at the current price then sell it.

It is that simple.


You will have to pay long term capital gains taxes but even if you hold the stock for another five+ years you will still have to pay capital gains taxes. There is even a risk that there could be a capital gains tax rate increase and you could pay higher taxes when you eventually sell it.

Deferring paying the capital gains taxes is not the same as avoiding them.

One exception is that if you support a charity or church then you could give them shares of the stock instead of cash, or you could set up a donor advised fund for future donations.
ModifiedDuration
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by ModifiedDuration »

This company went from nothing to a $30 billion market cap.

Revenue of under $2 billion on their solar micro-converters and batteries and net income of a couple of hundred million.

This company would have to continue to grow very, very quickly to justify this stock price.

Sell it.
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Wiggums
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by Wiggums »

My friend put $9,000 on AOL before the dot com bubble. The stock rose and split many times. He showed me his online account. I congratulated him for having 1.3M. I recommended that he sell immediately sell and put the money into US treasuries. He watched the stock crash and burn instead.

Another friend worked for Lucent Technologies. He didn’t want to sell because a small portion ($5,000) of his 401k was taxable. We watched his company stock fall below a dollar.

I was lucky enough to survive the media and telecom stock bubble burst. Waited 20 years for the account to recover. Never again. Congratulations on your good fortune. I don’t have play money.
Investors need to be better informed about the costs they pay. “High fund fees can be hazardous to your wealth in the same way that high calories can be hazardous for your health.”
helloeveryone
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by helloeveryone »

livingthedream17 wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:51 am First off, I recognize this is a very good problem to have :D. I'm just not really sure where to go from here. One of my taxable brokerage holdings (ENPH) is up +28075.96% for a cost basis close to $175k cost of $618 and balance of close to $175k.

I have followed the Boglehead and FIRE investing philosophies for most of my adult life. My spouse and I max out our 401k, ROTH IRAs, HSAs and contribute to our child's 529 along with an additional $1500/mo into taxable brokerage (VTSAX). Over the years I have dabbled in some stocks with some extra money for fun. Yes, I know this doesn't really fly with bogleheads but it's kind of a fun hobby of mine making small bets. Somehow I came across ENPH back in 2015, bought at $6 and then doubled down in 2017 at $0.95! I've taken my original investment and some long term gains to help towards my house down payment

Our total investment balance is at about 18x spending and I'm hoping I can early retire in 7-10 years (I'm 38 now). I'm looking for suggestions or strategies on what to do with this. I don't mind the volatility since we don't need the money and the wife says to just keep holding. Let it ride??
I would sell and have only 5-10% as "play money" for your hobby of making small bets. You made a small bet, you won - now sell all but the % of play money you are willing to play with. The gains that your play money achieved - deploy as you see fit within your financial life. ie - fund you child's 529, buy 10k + 10k in I-Bonds, pay down the house etc....
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by sixtyforty »

You could set two stop losses, one higher and one lower. If the first stop loss hits and you sell 50% you still have another 50% that can ride. Move the stops if the stock rises . At least this way you are giving the stock a chance. I would not enter the stop losses into the system. I would make "mental stop losses" and if the stock "closes" below those points, sell, this avoids getting whipsawed. Anyway, congrats and good luck.
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" - Leonardo Da Vinci
Walkure
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by Walkure »

livingthedream17 wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:47 am
greenspam wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:24 am …Perhaps the bigger question is, how do you plan to retire in 7 years at age 45 with only 1.25MM currently invested ?
Note: I said 7-10 years

We'd like to spend about 80k/year so 30x would be $2.4M, but I'd feel more comfortable at 3M.

1.25M over 10 years with a 7% annualized return = about $2.5M without additional contributions.

Across all accounts, we contribute $6500 monthly on average.

Same calc with our additional contributions gets us to $2.7M at 7 years, or $3.6M at 10 years.
$6500 X 84 months (7 years) = $546,000. Even if you ignore growth on contributions going forward, that plus the ~$2.5m from growth on your existing savings should put you around $3.1m in 7 years.
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JoeRetire
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by JoeRetire »

livingthedream17 wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:51 am Our total investment balance is at about 18x spending and I'm hoping I can early retire in 7-10 years (I'm 38 now). I'm looking for suggestions or strategies on what to do with this. I don't mind the volatility since we don't need the money and the wife says to just keep holding. Let it ride??
How important is the 7-10 year time frame?
How much sway does the wife's opinion hold?
How lucky do you feel?
This is gonna be my time. Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this: The Summer of George!
CWhea1775
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by CWhea1775 »

Ask yourself which you'd hate worse, holding on to your stock and watching it go to zero, or selling your stock and watching it go up another 1,000%.
uglymcmuffin
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by uglymcmuffin »

I’ve only been on bogleheads for a week, but most of these responses are already not surprising. If OP doesnt need the money what is the harm in keeping it and letting it ride? I’m also crippled into holding stuff way too long and not selling, and I can never seem to summon enough strength to sell. There is always a new excuse - I never want to pay capital gains, when the market is high its too high to rebuy index funds, when the market is low, its too low to sell.

How do you guys do it? Has anyone in the forum due to laze / negligence accidentally found themselves with millions in capital gains in a single stock? What strategy did you use to sell and diversify it? I feel like by nature, very few people here would have ever let their portfolios get that far out of hand. And for the minority… we ended up going down with the ship and not selling.. somebody has the have a middle ground success story.

Is there a forum that is the opposite of bogleheads? Like a bizarro bogleheads that just invests in individual stocks? Maybe i can read some horror stories or something over there to scare me straight.
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JoeRetire
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by JoeRetire »

uglymcmuffin wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:13 pmIf OP doesnt need the money what is the harm in keeping it and letting it ride?
There's no harm.
And there's no harm in selling.

If you don't need the money, you can always do whatever makes you happy.
Is there a forum that is the opposite of bogleheads? Like a bizarro bogleheads that just invests in individual stocks? Maybe i can read some horror stories or something over there to scare me straight.
Certainly. There are plenty. A quick Google search might help you.
This is gonna be my time. Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this: The Summer of George!
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by stoptothink »

JoeRetire wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:16 pm
uglymcmuffin wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:13 pmIf OP doesnt need the money what is the harm in keeping it and letting it ride?
There's no harm.
And there's no harm in selling.

If you don't need the money, you can always do whatever makes you happy.
Is there a forum that is the opposite of bogleheads? Like a bizarro bogleheads that just invests in individual stocks? Maybe i can read some horror stories or something over there to scare me straight.
Certainly. There are plenty. A quick Google search might help you.
The OP might not "need it", but they aren't "wealthy" (at least by the standards of this board) and cashing out now would have a non-trivial impact on their ability to reach their early retirement goal. How would they feel if $175k went to zero? I know, I was heavily invested in real estate in '08 - fortunately I was only in my mid-20's. If it were me, I'd cash out most of it and let maybe 10% ride. I'm comfortable taking moonshots with maybe 2% of our portfolio; ours is in crypto.
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HomerJ
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by HomerJ »

CWhea1775 wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 2:48 pm Ask yourself which you'd hate worse, holding on to your stock and watching it go to zero, or selling your stock and watching it go up another 1,000%.
It's already a $30 billion company.... 1000% MORE would make it a $3 trillion company... tied with Apple as the largest company in the world...

He should sell a large chunk and start looking for another $600 investment.. it's supposed to be a play account.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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squirrel1963
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by squirrel1963 »

This somewhat similar to what happened to me, I used play money to buy TSLA at around $42 and sold it at around $820.
When I sold, the TSLA holding came to be about 20% of our total net worth, so I decided the possible reward of holding it more wasn't worth the risk of losing a significant portion of our total net worth.

I got lucky though, it could just as easily gone the other way, so my recommendation would be to always sell once the amount of play money becomes serious money.

The key reasoning here what is more valuable to you compared to your total net worth? 14% of guaranteed winnings or the chance of these guaranteed winnings becoming a higher portion but a significant risk of becoming a lot less? If you are okay with the idea of losing all the play money gains then don't sell otherwise hold.
| LMP | safe portfolio: TIPS ladder + I-bonds + Treasuries | risky portfolio: US stocks / US REIT / International stocks |
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by an_asker »

Tamalak wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:57 am [...]
It looks like you were just doing this 'for fun', but this is no longer a 'fun' amount of money. So I would sell immediately!
[...]
...the wife says to just keep holding.
Wife trumps Bogleheads!
an_asker
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by an_asker »

JoeRetire wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:16 pm [...]If you don't need the money, you can always do whatever makes your wife happy.
[...]
Fixed it for you :-)
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JoeRetire
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by JoeRetire »

stoptothink wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:22 pm The OP might not "need it", but they aren't "wealthy" (at least by the standards of this board) and cashing out now would have a non-trivial impact on their ability to reach their early retirement goal.
Perhaps we have different definitions of "need it".
This is gonna be my time. Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this: The Summer of George!
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