Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Have a question about your personal investments? No matter how simple or complex, you can ask it here.
Post Reply
Topic Author
Neus
Posts: 424
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:12 am
Location: a Developing country in Asia with Low Cost of Living and Tax Treaty with USA

Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by Neus »

So I read in bogleheads guide to Retirement planning and found this passage on withdrawal: Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.

My grandma passed away when she was 98, so following this rule, I need to plan that my nest egg is enough until I'm 108 :oops: (which I don't want). The impact is my withdrawal rate would need to be lower than if I plan to live until the 80 :(

Does anyone have a similar situation?
sport
Posts: 11255
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 3:26 pm
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by sport »

That is a "rule of thumb". Such rules may apply to the most common situations, but they do not apply to all situations. If that "rule" does not make sense for your situation, just ignore it.
Topic Author
Neus
Posts: 424
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:12 am
Location: a Developing country in Asia with Low Cost of Living and Tax Treaty with USA

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by Neus »

sport wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:59 pm That is a "rule of thumb". Such rules may apply to the most common situations, but they do not apply to all situations. If that "rule" does not make sense for your situation, just ignore it.
Ah okay :sharebeer
User avatar
Watty
Posts: 25475
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:55 pm

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by Watty »

Neus wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:53 pm Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.
I don't recall that but that makes little sense because many people people will have a living parent or grandparent well through their working career and even into retirement especially if they retire somewhat early.

There have also been so many advances in medical care that your situation may be much less related to your family history than it was in the past. For example many things like heart disease and cancer are much more survivable than they were 50+ years ago. Improved diagnostic test can also find problems much earlier when they are more treatable. One advance that is also very important is that ambulances and paramedics are also a lot more advanced they they were a generation or two ago so after a significant accident you are more likely to make it too a hospital alive. Even cell phones are a big change now since if you are hurt and not alone help will quickly be called using a cell phone instead of someone having to find a landline phone to call for help. In the past if you were in a car accident you could be a long way from a landline.
User avatar
Watty
Posts: 25475
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:55 pm

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by Watty »

One more thing, for a couple their joint life expectancy will be much longer than either of their individual life expectancies.

See this article and the calculator you can download.

https://www.kitces.com/joint-life-expec ... alculator/
User avatar
JoeRetire
Posts: 13315
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:44 pm

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by JoeRetire »

Neus wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:53 pm So I read in bogleheads guide to Retirement planning and found this passage on withdrawal: Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.
It's a silly "rule". Doesn't make much sense.

My oldest grandparent passed at 72. Both parents lived into their middle/late 80s.
My grandma passed away when she was 98, so following this rule, I need to plan that my nest egg is enough until I'm 108 :oops: (which I don't want). The impact is my withdrawal rate would need to be lower than if I plan to live until the 80 :(
If you want to plan to die at 80, that's your choice. Perhaps not a smart choice, but one you are always free to make.
Just consider what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money.
This is gonna be my time. Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this: The Summer of George!
User avatar
tennisplyr
Posts: 3277
Joined: Tue Jan 28, 2014 1:53 pm
Location: Sarasota, FL

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by tennisplyr »

Really? Twin studies, however, suggest genetics only account for approximately 20 to 30 percent of an individual's chance of surviving to age 85.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... dentified/
“Those who move forward with a happy spirit will find that things always work out.” -Retired 11 years 😀
ClassII
Posts: 283
Joined: Fri May 21, 2021 12:05 pm

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by ClassII »

Eat more cheeseburgers and milkshakes?
homebuyer6426
Posts: 720
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2017 9:08 am

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by homebuyer6426 »

The sex of the person should also be taken into account. If your oldest grandparent was a woman and you are a man, it would make sense to subtract 5 years.
dbr
Posts: 41845
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 9:50 am

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by dbr »

Neus wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:53 pm So I read in bogleheads guide to Retirement planning and found this passage on withdrawal: Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.

My grandma passed away when she was 98, so following this rule, I need to plan that my nest egg is enough until I'm 108 :oops: (which I don't want). The impact is my withdrawal rate would need to be lower than if I plan to live until the 80 :(

Does anyone have a similar situation?
Does it really say that? Someone should have edited out something that silly.

It can be reasonable to point out that life expectancy charts are for 50% survival and you can be in the long-lived 10%. But it is also a question how much credit you want to give to trying to figure out how long you are going to live.
Dregob
Posts: 352
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:45 pm

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by Dregob »

Neus wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:53 pm So I read in bogleheads guide to Retirement planning and found this passage on withdrawal: Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.

My grandma passed away when she was 98, so following this rule, I need to plan that my nest egg is enough until I'm 108 :oops: (which I don't want). The impact is my withdrawal rate would need to be lower than if I plan to live until the 80 :(

Does anyone have a similar situation?
My grandmother lived until she was 105 and had 105% of her portfolio in bonds when she passed.
Topic Author
Neus
Posts: 424
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:12 am
Location: a Developing country in Asia with Low Cost of Living and Tax Treaty with USA

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by Neus »

JoeRetire wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:33 am
Neus wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:53 pm So I read in bogleheads guide to Retirement planning and found this passage on withdrawal: Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.
It's a silly "rule". Doesn't make much sense.

My oldest grandparent passed at 72. Both parents lived into their middle/late 80s.
My grandma passed away when she was 98, so following this rule, I need to plan that my nest egg is enough until I'm 108 :oops: (which I don't want). The impact is my withdrawal rate would need to be lower than if I plan to live until the 80 :(
If you want to plan to die at 80, that's your choice. Perhaps not a smart choice, but one you are always free to make.
Just consider what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money.
JoeRetire

what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money. -> fair point, but since i’m in asia where typically elderly still retires at kids’s house, it’s quite safe to assume that my child would take care of my meager expense at that age.

But to be safe and leave some for my child, reducing withdrawal seems reasonable :)
Topic Author
Neus
Posts: 424
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:12 am
Location: a Developing country in Asia with Low Cost of Living and Tax Treaty with USA

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by Neus »

dbr wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:11 am
Neus wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:53 pm So I read in bogleheads guide to Retirement planning and found this passage on withdrawal: Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.

My grandma passed away when she was 98, so following this rule, I need to plan that my nest egg is enough until I'm 108 :oops: (which I don't want). The impact is my withdrawal rate would need to be lower than if I plan to live until the 80 :(

Does anyone have a similar situation?
Does it really say that? Someone should have edited out something that silly.

It can be reasonable to point out that life expectancy charts are for 50% survival and you can be in the long-lived 10%. But it is also a question how much credit you want to give to trying to figure out how long you are going to live.
Yeah..

The book also mentions early-retirement org, when i check it, the first page is a thread which says “bogleheads is a cult”
User avatar
Sandtrap
Posts: 16803
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 6:32 pm
Location: Hawaii No Ka Oi , N. Arizona

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by Sandtrap »

Neus wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:45 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:33 am
Neus wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:53 pm So I read in bogleheads guide to Retirement planning and found this passage on withdrawal: Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.
It's a silly "rule". Doesn't make much sense.

My oldest grandparent passed at 72. Both parents lived into their middle/late 80s.
My grandma passed away when she was 98, so following this rule, I need to plan that my nest egg is enough until I'm 108 :oops: (which I don't want). The impact is my withdrawal rate would need to be lower than if I plan to live until the 80 :(
If you want to plan to die at 80, that's your choice. Perhaps not a smart choice, but one you are always free to make.
Just consider what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money.
JoeRetire

what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money. -> fair point, but since i’m in asia where typically elderly still retires at kids’s house, it’s quite safe to assume that my child would take care of my meager expense at that age.

But to be safe and leave some for my child, reducing withdrawal seems reasonable :)
to op
This is a sensible and mature viewpoint of your situation.
Your question must be answered within the larger more comprehensive context of "your" culture, family dynamics, country, and so forth,

Cultural myopics aside:

to op
While "rules of thumb" exist and are highly arguable and exhaustive to banter, it may be more useful and actionable to you to return to the basics of estate planning, etc etc to establish a solid financial foundation that you can have confidence and feel secure no matter what your "expiration date" is.

Thank you for sharing.

I am very familiar with your concerns and point of view etc.
PM me as you wish.
Aloha
j🌺
Last edited by Sandtrap on Fri Aug 05, 2022 8:50 am, edited 5 times in total.
Wiki Bogleheads Wiki: Everything You Need to Know
User avatar
tooluser
Posts: 1276
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2011 7:04 pm

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by tooluser »

I think it's important to retirement planning to run a number of aging scenarios. Get a feel for what happens if you die early or late, suddenly or extended, average or average with exceptions. Really live those circumstances in your mind. Write them down, plan the finances in a spreadsheet if you are so inclined. How does it all look and feel? Is there a cliff somewhere in there, or is it a slow fade? Does your own life experience inform you one way or another, even an inkling of what you might want to explore and plan for? There is no certainty. There's a good reason it takes people years to figure out what/when/how they want to retire, and the preparations leading up to it.
Like good comrades to the utmost of their strength, we shall go on to the end. -- Winston Churchill
User avatar
JoeRetire
Posts: 13315
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:44 pm

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by JoeRetire »

Neus wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:45 pm what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money. -> fair point, but since i’m in asia where typically elderly still retires at kids’s house, it’s quite safe to assume that my child would take care of my meager expense at that age.
Where you live in Asia, do the children know they will be expected to take care of their parents' expenses when their parents choose to spend all their money? Have you told them about your plans?

Personally, I wouldn't plan to impose that burden on my children. And my financial plans ensure that won't happen. But I don't live in Asia.
This is gonna be my time. Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this: The Summer of George!
Ping Pong
Posts: 670
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:51 pm

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by Ping Pong »

Neus wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:45 pm since i’m in asia where typically elderly still retires at kids’s house, it’s quite safe to assume that my child would take care of my meager expense at that age.

But to be safe and leave some for my child, reducing withdrawal seems reasonable :)
Your child would likely be retirement age when you reach an advanced age, so they would need to save up enough for themselves as well as saving extra to take care of you if you run out of money. Though if your child plans on having their child take care care of them when they run out of money, that would mean your grandchild has to take care of both of you.
Topic Author
Neus
Posts: 424
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:12 am
Location: a Developing country in Asia with Low Cost of Living and Tax Treaty with USA

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by Neus »

JoeRetire wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 6:14 am
Neus wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:45 pm what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money. -> fair point, but since i’m in asia where typically elderly still retires at kids’s house, it’s quite safe to assume that my child would take care of my meager expense at that age.
Where you live in Asia, do the children know they will be expected to take care of their parents' expenses when their parents choose to spend all their money? Have you told them about your plans?

Personally, I wouldn't plan to impose that burden on my children. And my financial plans ensure that won't happen. But I don't live in Asia.
Well.. Point taken

Any ideas for SWR simulation longer than 50 years?
I use the one here and it's 50 years max https://retirementplans.vanguard.com/VG ... ggCalc.jsf

Want to check my SWR for 60 years
Topic Author
Neus
Posts: 424
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:12 am
Location: a Developing country in Asia with Low Cost of Living and Tax Treaty with USA

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by Neus »

Ping Pong wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 6:31 am
Neus wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:45 pm since i’m in asia where typically elderly still retires at kids’s house, it’s quite safe to assume that my child would take care of my meager expense at that age.

But to be safe and leave some for my child, reducing withdrawal seems reasonable :)
Your child would likely be retirement age when you reach an advanced age, so they would need to save up enough for themselves as well as saving extra to take care of you if you run out of money. Though if your child plans on having their child take care care of them when they run out of money, that would mean your grandchild has to take care of both of you.
Ping Pong,
Good point
I should plan my money to last 60 more years
Ron
Posts: 6918
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 7:46 pm
Location: Allentown–Bethlehem–Easton, PA-NJ Metropolitan Statistical Area

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by Ron »

The 2022 IRS Uniform Lifetime Table goes up to 120+ years, so there is always a possibility :mrgreen: ...

- Ron
Topic Author
Neus
Posts: 424
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:12 am
Location: a Developing country in Asia with Low Cost of Living and Tax Treaty with USA

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by Neus »

Ron wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 7:32 am The 2022 IRS Uniform Lifetime Table goes up to 120+ years, so there is always a possibility :mrgreen: ...

- Ron
Ron,
Damnn
I don't mind living till 120+ if my health is constantly like 30-35 years old
my grandma does live until 98, but since she's 93 years old, she barely recognizes anyone anymore
lazynovice
Posts: 2886
Joined: Mon Apr 16, 2012 10:48 pm

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by lazynovice »

Neus wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:46 pm
dbr wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:11 am
Neus wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:53 pm So I read in bogleheads guide to Retirement planning and found this passage on withdrawal: Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.

My grandma passed away when she was 98, so following this rule, I need to plan that my nest egg is enough until I'm 108 :oops: (which I don't want). The impact is my withdrawal rate would need to be lower than if I plan to live until the 80 :(

Does anyone have a similar situation?
Does it really say that? Someone should have edited out something that silly.

It can be reasonable to point out that life expectancy charts are for 50% survival and you can be in the long-lived 10%. But it is also a question how much credit you want to give to trying to figure out how long you are going to live.
Yeah..

The book also mentions early-retirement org, when i check it, the first page is a thread which says “bogleheads is a cult”
That got my attention. Went to read that post. It was pretty interesting. Thanks for pointing it out.
User avatar
ram
Posts: 2078
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2008 10:47 pm
Location: Midwest

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by ram »

When was the "rule" made. Has anybody thought of updating it based on new data.

Life expectancy in US has stagnated and is likely in decline due to the Obesity epidemic.
Ram
User avatar
JoeRetire
Posts: 13315
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:44 pm

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by JoeRetire »

ram wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 6:33 pm When was the "rule" made. Has anybody thought of updating it based on new data.

Life expectancy in US has stagnated and is likely in decline due to the Obesity epidemic.
Anyone is free to invent and update any "rule" they choose.

Be careful assuming that life expectancy will decline for you. In recent years average US life expectancy has dropped disproportionately for some based on their wealth level, locale, racial group, and willingness to vaccinate and mask. Personally, I would never base my asset allocation on anything like this "rule" in any form.
This is gonna be my time. Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this: The Summer of George!
stoptothink
Posts: 11993
Joined: Fri Dec 31, 2010 9:53 am

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by stoptothink »

My wife currently has all of her grandparents living, all in their mid-90's. They also all had pretty unhealthy lifestyles; both her grandfathers are morbidly obese, type 2 diabetic, and drank pretty heavily for several decades. All also survived at least 2 bouts with COVID, with hardly any symptoms. She's going to live forever.

On the other hand, I didn't have a single grandparent reach 65 and my birth father didn't reach 60.
User avatar
nisiprius
Advisory Board
Posts: 47214
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:33 am
Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by nisiprius »

The Framingham study found an almost negligible correlation between parental and child longevity, I'm thinking it was something like 0.07. I think I remember some earlier European study had similar results.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 32250
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by willthrill81 »

nisiprius wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 7:29 pm The Framingham study found an almost negligible correlation between parental and child longevity, I'm thinking it was something like 0.07. I think I remember some earlier European study had similar results.
IIRC, no more than 20% of an individual's longevity can be explained by genetics in total, which encapsulates parents' and grandparents' longevity.
User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 32250
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by willthrill81 »

Such a 'rule' should be thrown out the window wholesale. It's garbage for many reasons.
seajay
Posts: 729
Joined: Sat May 01, 2021 3:26 pm

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by seajay »

SWR will have to be replaced with PWR as they say the first person that will live to be 1000 has already been born. If biotech extends longevity faster than it takes one to get there!! But whether that is a actual person as we presently consider it?? If/when you could upload all of your memories each night and download those into a replaceable body each morning would that be you or just a robot? Good for space exploration, set you body clock to tick once/year and a trip to the Andromeda galaxy could be just a month journey time away. But I guess money/investing would be a thing of the past by then.
User avatar
Artful Dodger
Posts: 1574
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2016 12:56 pm

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by Artful Dodger »

I’ve set my planned date of death to age 91. This is 6 years past when my parents died. Who knows. But, it’s probably a reasonable expectation. I certainly hope I make it past my parent’s time of passing.

Don’t sell yourself short. As noted above, don’t plan for your money to run out at 80.
User avatar
JoeRetire
Posts: 13315
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:44 pm

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by JoeRetire »

seajay wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 8:00 pm SWR will have to be replaced with PWR as they say the first person that will live to be 1000 has already been born.
Nobody says that.
This is gonna be my time. Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this: The Summer of George!
User avatar
JoeRetire
Posts: 13315
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:44 pm

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by JoeRetire »

Artful Dodger wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 8:23 pm I’ve set my planned date of death to age 91. This is 6 years past when my parents died.
How did you happen to settle on that number?
This is gonna be my time. Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this: The Summer of George!
sport
Posts: 11255
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 3:26 pm
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by sport »

Planning such things is next to impossible. One of my great grandfathers was killed in an accident at the age of 90. Moreover, he was born in 1825 before modern medicine such as blood pressure and cholesterol drugs.
User avatar
Artful Dodger
Posts: 1574
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2016 12:56 pm

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by Artful Dodger »

JoeRetire wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 8:29 pm
Artful Dodger wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 8:23 pm I’ve set my planned date of death to age 91. This is 6 years past when my parents died.
How did you happen to settle on that number?
To be honest, I don’t really remember. I use Fidelity’s retirement planner and they ask for a final date. I think I wanted to be conservative and adding 5-6 years past my parents death seemed reasonable. It is way past average life expectancy even for a 65 year old male which is 89, but as I said I wanted to be conservative. It’s possible I could live much longer. I’ve got money set aside for inheritance and I don’t include our home in the retirement planner calculation, so there is some margin. We’re both delaying social security until 70, and that may cover the bulk of the expenses then.
User avatar
tooluser
Posts: 1276
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2011 7:04 pm

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by tooluser »

JoeRetire wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 8:28 pm
seajay wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 8:00 pm SWR will have to be replaced with PWR as they say the first person that will live to be 1000 has already been born.
Nobody says that.
Almost nobody: https://futurism.com/aging-expert-person-1000-born :happy
Like a lot of predictions, you read about them for years and nothing happens and nothing happens, and then a few come true. Can't count on them though.

As a personal goal I have a milestone to execute in my 110th year, but I only used age 95 or 100 in retirement planning. A little flexibility should get me to 110 if I am even remotely close.
Like good comrades to the utmost of their strength, we shall go on to the end. -- Winston Churchill
User avatar
JoeRetire
Posts: 13315
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:44 pm

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by JoeRetire »

tooluser wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:20 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 8:28 pm
seajay wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 8:00 pm SWR will have to be replaced with PWR as they say the first person that will live to be 1000 has already been born.
Nobody says that.
Almost nobody: https://futurism.com/aging-expert-person-1000-born :happy
Like a lot of predictions, you read about them for years and nothing happens and nothing happens, and then a few come true. Can't count on them though.
Fair enough. And it's not hard to find a 5 year old article stating that the earth is flat.
Perhaps this "futurist" actually believes what he says. I'm doubtful.

Not something that's going to impact my financial plans either way.
This is gonna be my time. Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this: The Summer of George!
stoptothink
Posts: 11993
Joined: Fri Dec 31, 2010 9:53 am

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by stoptothink »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 7:31 pm
nisiprius wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 7:29 pm The Framingham study found an almost negligible correlation between parental and child longevity, I'm thinking it was something like 0.07. I think I remember some earlier European study had similar results.
IIRC, no more than 20% of an individual's longevity can be explained by genetics in total, which encapsulates parents' and grandparents' longevity.
Kind of impossible to quantify things that have so many factors. Although Framingham is right up my alley, as I do metabolic health research, I'm not a huge fan of the simplicity of the Framingham risk score and I am leery of putting so much emphasis on data that began to be collected ~75yrs ago - life is much different today and IMO there are some holes in the analysis of the newer data. I am among the cohort who believes that Framingham overestimates risk (for reasons irrelevant to this thread). Vitality International is doing some interesting research on the factors involved with lifespan.

In a roundabout way, I pretty much agree with you. These rules of thumb are useless...but I'm still pretty certain my wife should financially plan on immortality.
Dave55
Posts: 1687
Joined: Tue Sep 03, 2013 2:51 pm

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by Dave55 »

Sandtrap wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 11:29 pm
Neus wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:45 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:33 am
Neus wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:53 pm So I read in bogleheads guide to Retirement planning and found this passage on withdrawal: Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.
It's a silly "rule". Doesn't make much sense.

My oldest grandparent passed at 72. Both parents lived into their middle/late 80s.
My grandma passed away when she was 98, so following this rule, I need to plan that my nest egg is enough until I'm 108 :oops: (which I don't want). The impact is my withdrawal rate would need to be lower than if I plan to live until the 80 :(
If you want to plan to die at 80, that's your choice. Perhaps not a smart choice, but one you are always free to make.
Just consider what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money.
JoeRetire

what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money. -> fair point, but since i’m in asia where typically elderly still retires at kids’s house, it’s quite safe to assume that my child would take care of my meager expense at that age.

But to be safe and leave some for my child, reducing withdrawal seems reasonable :)
to op
This is a sensible and mature viewpoint of your situation.
Your question must be answered within the larger more comprehensive context of "your" culture, family dynamics, country, and so forth,

Cultural myopics aside:

to op
While "rules of thumb" exist and are highly arguable and exhaustive to banter, it may be more useful and actionable to you to return to the basics of estate planning, etc etc to establish a solid financial foundation that you can have confidence and feel secure no matter what your "expiration date" is.

Thank you for sharing.

I am very familiar with your concerns and point of view etc.
PM me as you wish.
Aloha
j🌺
+1 Thanks Jim, as always, you are spot on.

Dave
"Reality always wins, your only job is to get in touch with it." Wilfred Bion
TheNightsToCome
Posts: 847
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2017 11:48 pm

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by TheNightsToCome »

Neus wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 6:55 am
JoeRetire wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 6:14 am
Neus wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:45 pm what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money. -> fair point, but since i’m in asia where typically elderly still retires at kids’s house, it’s quite safe to assume that my child would take care of my meager expense at that age.
Where you live in Asia, do the children know they will be expected to take care of their parents' expenses when their parents choose to spend all their money? Have you told them about your plans?

Personally, I wouldn't plan to impose that burden on my children. And my financial plans ensure that won't happen. But I don't live in Asia.
Well.. Point taken

Any ideas for SWR simulation longer than 50 years?
I use the one here and it's 50 years max https://retirementplans.vanguard.com/VG ... ggCalc.jsf

Want to check my SWR for 60 years
These blogs posts should help:

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/ ... t-1-intro/
User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 32250
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: Oldest grandparent +10 year rule

Post by willthrill81 »

Neus wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 6:55 am Any ideas for SWR simulation longer than 50 years?
You should absolutely read Tyler's post on the topic here: https://portfoliocharts.com/2016/12/09/ ... etirement/. Portfolio Charts has numerous tools that are fantastic and free.
Post Reply