So I read in bogleheads guide to Retirement planning and found this passage on withdrawal: Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.
My grandma passed away when she was 98, so following this rule, I need to plan that my nest egg is enough until I'm 108 (which I don't want). The impact is my withdrawal rate would need to be lower than if I plan to live until the 80
That is a "rule of thumb". Such rules may apply to the most common situations, but they do not apply to all situations. If that "rule" does not make sense for your situation, just ignore it.
sport wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:59 pm
That is a "rule of thumb". Such rules may apply to the most common situations, but they do not apply to all situations. If that "rule" does not make sense for your situation, just ignore it.
Neus wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:53 pm
Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.
I don't recall that but that makes little sense because many people people will have a living parent or grandparent well through their working career and even into retirement especially if they retire somewhat early.
There have also been so many advances in medical care that your situation may be much less related to your family history than it was in the past. For example many things like heart disease and cancer are much more survivable than they were 50+ years ago. Improved diagnostic test can also find problems much earlier when they are more treatable. One advance that is also very important is that ambulances and paramedics are also a lot more advanced they they were a generation or two ago so after a significant accident you are more likely to make it too a hospital alive. Even cell phones are a big change now since if you are hurt and not alone help will quickly be called using a cell phone instead of someone having to find a landline phone to call for help. In the past if you were in a car accident you could be a long way from a landline.
Neus wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:53 pm
So I read in bogleheads guide to Retirement planning and found this passage on withdrawal: Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.
It's a silly "rule". Doesn't make much sense.
My oldest grandparent passed at 72. Both parents lived into their middle/late 80s.
My grandma passed away when she was 98, so following this rule, I need to plan that my nest egg is enough until I'm 108 (which I don't want). The impact is my withdrawal rate would need to be lower than if I plan to live until the 80
If you want to plan to die at 80, that's your choice. Perhaps not a smart choice, but one you are always free to make.
Just consider what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money.
This is gonna be my time. Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this: The Summer of George!
The sex of the person should also be taken into account. If your oldest grandparent was a woman and you are a man, it would make sense to subtract 5 years.
Neus wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:53 pm
So I read in bogleheads guide to Retirement planning and found this passage on withdrawal: Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.
My grandma passed away when she was 98, so following this rule, I need to plan that my nest egg is enough until I'm 108 (which I don't want). The impact is my withdrawal rate would need to be lower than if I plan to live until the 80
Does anyone have a similar situation?
Does it really say that? Someone should have edited out something that silly.
It can be reasonable to point out that life expectancy charts are for 50% survival and you can be in the long-lived 10%. But it is also a question how much credit you want to give to trying to figure out how long you are going to live.
Neus wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:53 pm
So I read in bogleheads guide to Retirement planning and found this passage on withdrawal: Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.
My grandma passed away when she was 98, so following this rule, I need to plan that my nest egg is enough until I'm 108 (which I don't want). The impact is my withdrawal rate would need to be lower than if I plan to live until the 80
Does anyone have a similar situation?
My grandmother lived until she was 105 and had 105% of her portfolio in bonds when she passed.
Neus wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:53 pm
So I read in bogleheads guide to Retirement planning and found this passage on withdrawal: Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.
It's a silly "rule". Doesn't make much sense.
My oldest grandparent passed at 72. Both parents lived into their middle/late 80s.
My grandma passed away when she was 98, so following this rule, I need to plan that my nest egg is enough until I'm 108 (which I don't want). The impact is my withdrawal rate would need to be lower than if I plan to live until the 80
If you want to plan to die at 80, that's your choice. Perhaps not a smart choice, but one you are always free to make.
Just consider what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money.
JoeRetire
what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money. -> fair point, but since i’m in asia where typically elderly still retires at kids’s house, it’s quite safe to assume that my child would take care of my meager expense at that age.
But to be safe and leave some for my child, reducing withdrawal seems reasonable
Neus wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:53 pm
So I read in bogleheads guide to Retirement planning and found this passage on withdrawal: Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.
My grandma passed away when she was 98, so following this rule, I need to plan that my nest egg is enough until I'm 108 (which I don't want). The impact is my withdrawal rate would need to be lower than if I plan to live until the 80
Does anyone have a similar situation?
Does it really say that? Someone should have edited out something that silly.
It can be reasonable to point out that life expectancy charts are for 50% survival and you can be in the long-lived 10%. But it is also a question how much credit you want to give to trying to figure out how long you are going to live.
Yeah..
The book also mentions early-retirement org, when i check it, the first page is a thread which says “bogleheads is a cult”
Neus wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:53 pm
So I read in bogleheads guide to Retirement planning and found this passage on withdrawal: Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.
It's a silly "rule". Doesn't make much sense.
My oldest grandparent passed at 72. Both parents lived into their middle/late 80s.
My grandma passed away when she was 98, so following this rule, I need to plan that my nest egg is enough until I'm 108 (which I don't want). The impact is my withdrawal rate would need to be lower than if I plan to live until the 80
If you want to plan to die at 80, that's your choice. Perhaps not a smart choice, but one you are always free to make.
Just consider what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money.
JoeRetire
what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money. -> fair point, but since i’m in asia where typically elderly still retires at kids’s house, it’s quite safe to assume that my child would take care of my meager expense at that age.
But to be safe and leave some for my child, reducing withdrawal seems reasonable
to op
This is a sensible and mature viewpoint of your situation.
Your question must be answered within the larger more comprehensive context of "your" culture, family dynamics, country, and so forth,
Cultural myopics aside:
to op
While "rules of thumb" exist and are highly arguable and exhaustive to banter, it may be more useful and actionable to you to return to the basics of estate planning, etc etc to establish a solid financial foundation that you can have confidence and feel secure no matter what your "expiration date" is.
Thank you for sharing.
I am very familiar with your concerns and point of view etc.
PM me as you wish.
Aloha
j
Last edited by Sandtrap on Fri Aug 05, 2022 8:50 am, edited 5 times in total.
I think it's important to retirement planning to run a number of aging scenarios. Get a feel for what happens if you die early or late, suddenly or extended, average or average with exceptions. Really live those circumstances in your mind. Write them down, plan the finances in a spreadsheet if you are so inclined. How does it all look and feel? Is there a cliff somewhere in there, or is it a slow fade? Does your own life experience inform you one way or another, even an inkling of what you might want to explore and plan for? There is no certainty. There's a good reason it takes people years to figure out what/when/how they want to retire, and the preparations leading up to it.
Like good comrades to the utmost of their strength, we shall go on to the end. -- Winston Churchill
Neus wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:45 pm
what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money. -> fair point, but since i’m in asia where typically elderly still retires at kids’s house, it’s quite safe to assume that my child would take care of my meager expense at that age.
Where you live in Asia, do the children know they will be expected to take care of their parents' expenses when their parents choose to spend all their money? Have you told them about your plans?
Personally, I wouldn't plan to impose that burden on my children. And my financial plans ensure that won't happen. But I don't live in Asia.
This is gonna be my time. Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this: The Summer of George!
Neus wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:45 pm
since i’m in asia where typically elderly still retires at kids’s house, it’s quite safe to assume that my child would take care of my meager expense at that age.
But to be safe and leave some for my child, reducing withdrawal seems reasonable
Your child would likely be retirement age when you reach an advanced age, so they would need to save up enough for themselves as well as saving extra to take care of you if you run out of money. Though if your child plans on having their child take care care of them when they run out of money, that would mean your grandchild has to take care of both of you.
Neus wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:45 pm
what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money. -> fair point, but since i’m in asia where typically elderly still retires at kids’s house, it’s quite safe to assume that my child would take care of my meager expense at that age.
Where you live in Asia, do the children know they will be expected to take care of their parents' expenses when their parents choose to spend all their money? Have you told them about your plans?
Personally, I wouldn't plan to impose that burden on my children. And my financial plans ensure that won't happen. But I don't live in Asia.
Neus wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:45 pm
since i’m in asia where typically elderly still retires at kids’s house, it’s quite safe to assume that my child would take care of my meager expense at that age.
But to be safe and leave some for my child, reducing withdrawal seems reasonable
Your child would likely be retirement age when you reach an advanced age, so they would need to save up enough for themselves as well as saving extra to take care of you if you run out of money. Though if your child plans on having their child take care care of them when they run out of money, that would mean your grandchild has to take care of both of you.
Ping Pong,
Good point
I should plan my money to last 60 more years
Ron wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 7:32 am
The 2022 IRS Uniform Lifetime Table goes up to 120+ years, so there is always a possibility ...
- Ron
Ron,
Damnn
I don't mind living till 120+ if my health is constantly like 30-35 years old
my grandma does live until 98, but since she's 93 years old, she barely recognizes anyone anymore
Neus wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:53 pm
So I read in bogleheads guide to Retirement planning and found this passage on withdrawal: Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.
My grandma passed away when she was 98, so following this rule, I need to plan that my nest egg is enough until I'm 108 (which I don't want). The impact is my withdrawal rate would need to be lower than if I plan to live until the 80
Does anyone have a similar situation?
Does it really say that? Someone should have edited out something that silly.
It can be reasonable to point out that life expectancy charts are for 50% survival and you can be in the long-lived 10%. But it is also a question how much credit you want to give to trying to figure out how long you are going to live.
Yeah..
The book also mentions early-retirement org, when i check it, the first page is a thread which says “bogleheads is a cult”
That got my attention. Went to read that post. It was pretty interesting. Thanks for pointing it out.
ram wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 6:33 pm
When was the "rule" made. Has anybody thought of updating it based on new data.
Life expectancy in US has stagnated and is likely in decline due to the Obesity epidemic.
Anyone is free to invent and update any "rule" they choose.
Be careful assuming that life expectancy will decline for you. In recent years average US life expectancy has dropped disproportionately for some based on their wealth level, locale, racial group, and willingness to vaccinate and mask. Personally, I would never base my asset allocation on anything like this "rule" in any form.
This is gonna be my time. Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this: The Summer of George!
My wife currently has all of her grandparents living, all in their mid-90's. They also all had pretty unhealthy lifestyles; both her grandfathers are morbidly obese, type 2 diabetic, and drank pretty heavily for several decades. All also survived at least 2 bouts with COVID, with hardly any symptoms. She's going to live forever.
On the other hand, I didn't have a single grandparent reach 65 and my birth father didn't reach 60.
The Framingham study found an almost negligible correlation between parental and child longevity, I'm thinking it was something like 0.07. I think I remember some earlier European study had similar results.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
nisiprius wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 7:29 pm
The Framingham study found an almost negligible correlation between parental and child longevity, I'm thinking it was something like 0.07. I think I remember some earlier European study had similar results.
IIRC, no more than 20% of an individual's longevity can be explained by genetics in total, which encapsulates parents' and grandparents' longevity.
SWR will have to be replaced with PWR as they say the first person that will live to be 1000 has already been born. If biotech extends longevity faster than it takes one to get there!! But whether that is a actual person as we presently consider it?? If/when you could upload all of your memories each night and download those into a replaceable body each morning would that be you or just a robot? Good for space exploration, set you body clock to tick once/year and a trip to the Andromeda galaxy could be just a month journey time away. But I guess money/investing would be a thing of the past by then.
I’ve set my planned date of death to age 91. This is 6 years past when my parents died. Who knows. But, it’s probably a reasonable expectation. I certainly hope I make it past my parent’s time of passing.
Don’t sell yourself short. As noted above, don’t plan for your money to run out at 80.
seajay wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 8:00 pm
SWR will have to be replaced with PWR as they say the first person that will live to be 1000 has already been born.
Nobody says that.
This is gonna be my time. Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this: The Summer of George!
Planning such things is next to impossible. One of my great grandfathers was killed in an accident at the age of 90. Moreover, he was born in 1825 before modern medicine such as blood pressure and cholesterol drugs.
Artful Dodger wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 8:23 pm
I’ve set my planned date of death to age 91. This is 6 years past when my parents died.
How did you happen to settle on that number?
To be honest, I don’t really remember. I use Fidelity’s retirement planner and they ask for a final date. I think I wanted to be conservative and adding 5-6 years past my parents death seemed reasonable. It is way past average life expectancy even for a 65 year old male which is 89, but as I said I wanted to be conservative. It’s possible I could live much longer. I’ve got money set aside for inheritance and I don’t include our home in the retirement planner calculation, so there is some margin. We’re both delaying social security until 70, and that may cover the bulk of the expenses then.
seajay wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 8:00 pm
SWR will have to be replaced with PWR as they say the first person that will live to be 1000 has already been born.
Nobody says that.
Almost nobody: https://futurism.com/aging-expert-person-1000-born
Like a lot of predictions, you read about them for years and nothing happens and nothing happens, and then a few come true. Can't count on them though.
As a personal goal I have a milestone to execute in my 110th year, but I only used age 95 or 100 in retirement planning. A little flexibility should get me to 110 if I am even remotely close.
Like good comrades to the utmost of their strength, we shall go on to the end. -- Winston Churchill
seajay wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 8:00 pm
SWR will have to be replaced with PWR as they say the first person that will live to be 1000 has already been born.
Nobody says that.
Almost nobody: https://futurism.com/aging-expert-person-1000-born
Like a lot of predictions, you read about them for years and nothing happens and nothing happens, and then a few come true. Can't count on them though.
Fair enough. And it's not hard to find a 5 year old article stating that the earth is flat.
Perhaps this "futurist" actually believes what he says. I'm doubtful.
Not something that's going to impact my financial plans either way.
This is gonna be my time. Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this: The Summer of George!
nisiprius wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 7:29 pm
The Framingham study found an almost negligible correlation between parental and child longevity, I'm thinking it was something like 0.07. I think I remember some earlier European study had similar results.
IIRC, no more than 20% of an individual's longevity can be explained by geneticsin total, which encapsulates parents' and grandparents' longevity.
Kind of impossible to quantify things that have so many factors. Although Framingham is right up my alley, as I do metabolic health research, I'm not a huge fan of the simplicity of the Framingham risk score and I am leery of putting so much emphasis on data that began to be collected ~75yrs ago - life is much different today and IMO there are some holes in the analysis of the newer data. I am among the cohort who believes that Framingham overestimates risk (for reasons irrelevant to this thread). Vitality International is doing some interesting research on the factors involved with lifespan.
In a roundabout way, I pretty much agree with you. These rules of thumb are useless...but I'm still pretty certain my wife should financially plan on immortality.
Neus wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:53 pm
So I read in bogleheads guide to Retirement planning and found this passage on withdrawal: Plan to have enough money to live 10 years past the age of your oldest parent or grandparent lived.
It's a silly "rule". Doesn't make much sense.
My oldest grandparent passed at 72. Both parents lived into their middle/late 80s.
My grandma passed away when she was 98, so following this rule, I need to plan that my nest egg is enough until I'm 108 (which I don't want). The impact is my withdrawal rate would need to be lower than if I plan to live until the 80
If you want to plan to die at 80, that's your choice. Perhaps not a smart choice, but one you are always free to make.
Just consider what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money.
JoeRetire
what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money. -> fair point, but since i’m in asia where typically elderly still retires at kids’s house, it’s quite safe to assume that my child would take care of my meager expense at that age.
But to be safe and leave some for my child, reducing withdrawal seems reasonable
to op
This is a sensible and mature viewpoint of your situation.
Your question must be answered within the larger more comprehensive context of "your" culture, family dynamics, country, and so forth,
Cultural myopics aside:
to op
While "rules of thumb" exist and are highly arguable and exhaustive to banter, it may be more useful and actionable to you to return to the basics of estate planning, etc etc to establish a solid financial foundation that you can have confidence and feel secure no matter what your "expiration date" is.
Thank you for sharing.
I am very familiar with your concerns and point of view etc.
PM me as you wish.
Aloha
j
+1 Thanks Jim, as always, you are spot on.
Dave
"Reality always wins, your only job is to get in touch with it." Wilfred Bion
Neus wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:45 pm
what you will do if you happen to live past your "plan to live" date and have withdrawn all your money. -> fair point, but since i’m in asia where typically elderly still retires at kids’s house, it’s quite safe to assume that my child would take care of my meager expense at that age.
Where you live in Asia, do the children know they will be expected to take care of their parents' expenses when their parents choose to spend all their money? Have you told them about your plans?
Personally, I wouldn't plan to impose that burden on my children. And my financial plans ensure that won't happen. But I don't live in Asia.
(which I don't want). The impact is my withdrawal rate would need to be lower than if I plan to live until the 80 
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