2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

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9-5 Suited
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2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by 9-5 Suited »

For people contemplating retirement in the near future, I think it would very instructive to hear from retirees who are currently experiencing a poor (though not yet terrible) early return sequence to learn about both the emotional impact as well as financial impact as it is happening. Some things I'm curious about:

1. Are you resolved to completely stay the course on your retirement plan as it stood when you first pulled the trigger, or are you considering any short-term changes such as picking up some part-time work?

2. Are you feeling hopeful since these events are 'baked in' to SWR scenarios already, or is it more difficult than you expected emotionally?

3. What have you found surprising, especially if it's something helpful, that you didn't expect either about your own reactions or how your finances were impacted? For example in other forums, I've noticed people with larger 'cash stashes' seemed more relaxed, regardless of whether that's a technically wise strategy or not.

I hope this is considered actionable, as well as helpful. I'm contemplating retirement in about 3-5 years, and have been thinking about how I might have reacted had it been 1/1/2022. But it's hard to project those feelings perfectly since I know I'm still working/accumulating.
Marseille07
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by Marseille07 »

Might walk this year, but tbh OMY (one more year) might be on the horizon as well.

My problem is that I have enough at 4%, but I want to do 3%.
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Californiastate
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by Californiastate »

I retired in early '19. I have no plans to change my FP glide path. I never expected a rose garden.
AQ
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by AQ »

Contemplating now. Not too concerned about market turmoils but really worried if inflation is going to be out of control
maulermark
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by maulermark »

My plan was to go part time in June at a 40% pay cut (3 days a week) and then retire completely at the end of the year.

I planned for the worst-case scenario in my portfolio, but it still makes me uncomfortable that the market is tanking this fast with no stability in sight.

Seeing hundreds of thousands of dollars evaporate is never fun.
Slacker
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by Slacker »

I retired Oct 2021.

Staying the course, however, we are mostly living off our cash and bonds at this time.

Soon we will sell a rental property. Keep enough cash from that sale to cover 6 months expenses and invest the remainder based on our desired 80/15/5 portfolio (80 stock fund, 15 bond fund, 5 cash & I bonds).

In about 11 years we start our first pension. 16 years for the second.

Sleeping just fine at night. Always have the option to go back to work part time, but see no need to at this time.
ktdintex
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by ktdintex »

I retired a few months ago in February 2022 at the age of 49. While I don't like seeing the value of my portfolio decrease, as it has recently, it doesn't affect my long term plan at all. Zero. Nada. And there are two main reasons for this.

First, I set aside a little more than 2 years of cash when I retired. I'm not selling anything now, so the current market value doesn't directly affect me. I will draw down my cash and plan to replenish it back to a 2 year cushion at the end of 2022 / beginning of 2023. However, if the market is in bad shape at that time, I might delay selling investments, sell a smaller amount of investments, tax loss harvest, etc.

Second, I really only care about the value of investments at the time that I sell. Even then, I'm not going to completely cash out my entire portfolio, so selling investments at a "low" value only matters for that particular small sale.
dcabler
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by dcabler »

Retiring in a few months and not changing a thing. Won't be using SWR for my method of withdrawal, so that's irrelevant to me. Will be using my own version of ABW, described elsewhere on this forum.

Cheers.
fposte
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by fposte »

I retired at the end of July 2021. I have a pension that covers about 70% of my planned non-lumpy expenses, which obviously makes it easier; I also bundled some capital gains into last year so have some cash to draw on. But mostly I'm grateful to Bogleheads for spurring me to makea plan I can live with in a down market.
ScroogeMcDuck
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by ScroogeMcDuck »

We retired a little over a year ago, both in our late 30s. Essential spending is 2% of our initial portfolio, planned spending is 3% (although our actual spending over the past year has been 2%). No pensions, no mortgage.

I'm happy to stay the course and don't feel stressed. Our portfolio is 80/20 stocks/not stocks. The stocks portion is 70/30 US/international, obviously international hasn't done great but I'm sticking with it. The "not stocks" portion is half stable value fund, half Series I bond ladder. I sure am glad I started the I bond ladder 6 years ago and got out of bond funds a couple years ago. I used to reluctantly buy total bond funds in an "eat your vegetables" way but after the March 2020 COVID crash I realized I don't want to deal with interest rate risk. I'd rather take my risk on the equities side.
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Silentnight
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by Silentnight »

I have left the two comma club. I had 1.1 mil. Yesterday it was 938k.
My quit date remains 7/1/22.
Don't plan to take SS yet.
Have $60k in cash. Think I need ~$35k to live on.
Not planning to use investments yet.
It will be fun to see what my really real expenses will be over the first 12 months of not working.
Hopefully the market will rebound in a year, and if it doesn't, it doesn't.
I am looking forward to leaving this funny farm of a job and I'm not thinking about getting a different job, at least, not right now. We'll see what the really real turns out to be.
LegalFI
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by LegalFI »

I started a self-funded year-long sabbatical in 2022, which could turn into something longer. Before that, I transitioned from mostly stocks to a 67/33 split between stocks and bonds/cash. I told myself I would be fine with a 50% equity drop because I still have the bonds/cash. I've started following the day-to-day swings of my portfolio (and thinking about those swings too much) because I never anticipated losing so much money on the bond side. If I had it to go over again, I would have bought individual bonds or kept the fixed income side in cash. I just did not expect this kind of volatility from intermediate treasury and corporate bond funds.

Almost more interesting is that I funded a donor-advised fund last year. I put it in a 40/60 allocation between stocks and bonds because I didn't want to see a large drop early on. I plan to donate the money in the fund over a long period, kind of like living off a fund in retirement. The fund is down 13% YTD and now I don't want to make donations from the fund, which is the whole point. Again, I underestimated the volatility of a 40/60 fund.

Psychologically, I'm starting to think there's a lot of value in eliminating volatility from the safe portion of your portfolio when you're going to be living off/giving from that portfolio.
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9-5 Suited
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by 9-5 Suited »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 3:11 pm Might walk this year, but tbh OMY (one more year) might be on the horizon as well.

My problem is that I have enough at 4%, but I want to do 3%.
Very similar for us. I can’t help but build in buffer in my life, so I’m much more comfortable at 3.5%. That plus wanting to save enough for a fully or mostly paid off home in a nice area are the differences between retiring today and in 3 years or so. Nice side benefit of working a few more years at peak income is reaching the second bend point on the SS curve.

Hopefully the OMY also lands us in a good roll of the dice on early returns, but it seems so far from this thread that it hasn’t impacted people too much to have these blah returns at least to this point.
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9-5 Suited
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by 9-5 Suited »

ktdintex wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 4:03 pm First, I set aside a little more than 2 years of cash when I retired. I'm not selling anything now, so the current market value doesn't directly affect me. I will draw down my cash and plan to replenish it back to a 2 year cushion at the end of 2022 / beginning of 2023.
I’m becoming a big fan of this idea for the psychological benefit given retirement and drawing down assets will be a totally new experience. Honestly even if it means saving an extra 2 years of cash in addition to “my number” that would be OK. I’m 95% confident in my ability to stay the course even without this approach, but this would cover that 5% risk that I’m not as Spockian as I’d like to believe.
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by jjunk »

I was planning to retire at the end of 2022 but am reconsidering. I'll be moving this fall to a lower cost of living apartment, so I'll revisit at that time and see how the markets are doing. At the start of the year, my SWR would have been under 3%. It's now closer to 3.4% and my "safe space" number was under 3.5% so I'm still technically in that space. I don't have any inheritance or pension coming my way so once I pull the plug, that's it.
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by Recently Retired »

I retired at the end of 2021. In the first week of 2022 I rolled over my retirement funds into an IRA that includes 5 ETFs allocated at 60/40.

At the end of trading today my portfolio's value has dropped by 12.14% YTD. I am now in the $950k range.

I have no plans to change my strategy/allocation. SS will be dictated by the market. My goal is to wait until 2032 (70). 2029 (67) at the earliest if I can. Again the market will dictate this need.

Emotionally I am going to try and side with history. As history has taught us this too shall pass.
VTI 30% VXUS 15% BND 25% SCHD 15% SCHP 15% | Diversified Low-Cost Portfolio
Marseille07
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by Marseille07 »

9-5 Suited wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 5:42 pm Very similar for us. I can’t help but build in buffer in my life, so I’m much more comfortable at 3.5%. That plus wanting to save enough for a fully or mostly paid off home in a nice area are the differences between retiring today and in 3 years or so. Nice side benefit of working a few more years at peak income is reaching the second bend point on the SS curve.

Hopefully the OMY also lands us in a good roll of the dice on early returns, but it seems so far from this thread that it hasn’t impacted people too much to have these blah returns at least to this point.
When you say 3.5%, is that constant-dollar 3.5% + CPI annual adjustments?

My 3% is constant-percentage, and I don't think I need a buffer any more than the discretionary budget I've already accounted for. I also won't run out of money technically, but if the markets stay down for a long time then my withdrawals can be tight.
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9-5 Suited
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by 9-5 Suited »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 5:54 pm
9-5 Suited wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 5:42 pm Very similar for us. I can’t help but build in buffer in my life, so I’m much more comfortable at 3.5%. That plus wanting to save enough for a fully or mostly paid off home in a nice area are the differences between retiring today and in 3 years or so. Nice side benefit of working a few more years at peak income is reaching the second bend point on the SS curve.

Hopefully the OMY also lands us in a good roll of the dice on early returns, but it seems so far from this thread that it hasn’t impacted people too much to have these blah returns at least to this point.
When you say 3.5%, is that constant-dollar 3.5% + CPI annual adjustments?

My 3% is constant-percentage, and I don't think I need a buffer any more than the discretionary budget I've already accounted for. I also won't run out of money technically, but if the markets stay down for a long time then my withdrawals can be tight.
More similar to 3.5% + CPI, although I don’t really believe in CPI for personal use so it would be more like my own personal inflation rate or if I feel like just making a few small cuts or substitutions to inflate away some lifestyle rather than increase the withdrawal. I guess I’m not too committed to anything concrete, but want to be in the ballpark of 3.5% of portfolio to begin. We also take a lot of vacations for which I don’t expect to have the same spend every year so that would toggle us a bit up or down.
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by Vanguard User »

Anyone here have all equity portfolio?
Marseille07
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by Marseille07 »

Vanguard User wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:17 pm Anyone here have all equity portfolio?
Not 100/0, but 90/10 and plan to walk with that. Possibly this year but might work another year, still deciding.
85% US + FM + RSU | 15% Cash
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corn18
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by corn18 »

I retired Mar 2021 @ age 55. 100% Probability of Success (Ps) in all calculators. Had 2 years of cash. Felt pretty good.

If I retired today with the same plan but my current balances, my Ps goes down to 85%. Not sure what to make of that other than stacking a 15% loss followed by the worst 35 years in history seems like a double whammy that I should ignore. I can say that I am right on track with the worst case starting year of 1969. Tracking right on the line. So there's that. That worst case line actually recovers nicely for a few years and then all heck breaks loose in 1973. So I should be good to go until 2026, right?

Not changing anything. If we drop another 20%, I may have to adjust our discretionary spend. COLA military pension covers 50% of spending now. When I hit 70, that plus SS will cover all expenses. So all I really have to do is slide into SS with a few shekels for the kids.
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by Third Son »

Retired February 2020 right before Covid. It has been strange to say the least. I moved to 40/60 late last year. In January of this year we withdrew our yearly calculated spend and are working off of that. It is not enjoyable to see the portfolio drop so much but we have been in the game for a long time. Reading and posting here keeps me level headed. Staying where I am.

62....no pension. I will take SS at FRA.
"A part of all you earn is yours to keep" | | -The Richest Man in Babylon
journey
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by journey »

This is the type of information I sought before DH and I retired. We retired in January 2021, 478 glorious days ago. We were both 56.

1. Are you resolved to completely stay the course? Yes.
2. Are you feeling hopeful? Yes. Is it more difficult emotionally? No.
3. What have you found surprising? Nothing, though grateful that I insisted on having a strong cash/cash equivalent reserve before retiring.

Planning: I used a variety of online calculators, all of which indicated we could retire. Then, for each of the 3 years prior to retiring, we had three different CFP firms (independently) evaluate our portfolio when they offered free evaluations (wanting us to use their services). Each said we were good to go. After that, I created a ‘worst case scenario’ calculator. In short, it forecasts our portfolio

• with no Social Security
• with no Medicare
• with no pensions
• a market downturn of x% (select a variable from a list of historic downturns)
• … and then $1M set aside for health care despite using the ACA (I became ill in college and spent the rest of my 20s in hospitals and recovering; expect the unexpected, eh?)
• and y% return on equites (I often use 0%)
• and z% Federal tax rate + our state rate (fixed in NC)

When it was clear that we would be okay after these factors, albeit lean, I was confident in us retiring. We are currently at 56/26/16 (stocks/bonds/cash). Is the cash a drag, especially during increased inflation? Yes. Are we okay with this? Yes. The cash is funding peace of mind and Roth conversions for years to come. So far, so good.

Best to you in your considerations :sharebeer
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Wiggums
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by Wiggums »

1. Are you resolved to completely stay the course? Yes.

2. Are you feeling hopeful? Yes. We retired with three years of expenses in cash which was a good decision.

Moved DW’s 401k which was invested i. proprietary funds. she had to move to cash near the top of the market to transfer the money. She should be fully back in the market by summertime.
Investors need to be better informed about the costs they pay. “High fund fees can be hazardous to your wealth in the same way that high calories can be hazardous for your health.”
robertvax
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by robertvax »

I early-retired in February 2020, so apparently I triggered the global pandemic, it's my fault. :-) As an early retiree, I have no social security checks coming in, so I have no source of income other than the payouts that my portfolio generates, and I use that cash for my living expenses. We can meet our needs with only 3%/year withdrawal from the portfolio, though this won't be the case for much longer if the market keeps cratering. I don't keep "dry powder" other than ~1 year of cash reserves, so I've had to watch helplessly as both stocks and bonds crater over the past 4 months, with my general sentiment being "bonds aren't supposed to do this, this was not the agreement."

In June 2020 I shifted from 60% stock / 40% bonds to 60% bonds / 40% stocks as a defensive play because I was concerned about inflated equity prices. (Yes, market timing, so sue me...) My concern has now arguably proven to be correct, however the "defense" of shifting into mid-term bonds didn't protect me - it appears to have actually made things worse, since VTI is presently still running above June 2020 levels, while BND is much lower. So shifting from stocks to bonds has INCREASED the damage to my portfolio, at least as of today. Go figure.

Errors in my portfolio setup on retirement:
- For legacy reasons, I was too heavy in growth stocks (Vanguard small-cap and mid-cap index), not enough in value stocks to balance it out. There were capgains issues here that I couldn't easily work around. And of course, small-cap growth has been one of the worst-hit segments this year.
- I trusted, incorrectly, that BND was sufficient as the One True Bond Fund that would be protected against major downturns. The only U.S. bond fund that my 401k even offers is BND, so there are no hints from the 401k side that one might ever want to buy anything else.
- Although I did have about 2 years' worth of expenses in short-term bond funds in addition to my cash reserves, I should have had more.

Things learned:
- When you're retired you have to learn how to manage the fixed income side of your portfolio, just buying BND isn't sufficient. I need a portfolio of I-bonds (which we already had in small quantity), TIPS, short-term and intermediate bonds, and I need to keep an eye on the yield curve.
- It's wise to keep an eye on what the Federal Reserve is doing, because their actions can badly screw over your portfolio.
- The rules that apply during accumulation don't apply during retirement, because you can't just say "everything is down, oh well, I'll just keep feeding the portfolio with my income for another 10 years and it won't matter". I need regular withdrawals from that portfolio because I like to eat. :-)
- The triple whammy of cratering stock market, cratering bond market, and almost 10% inflation is not something that even a fairly robust early-retirement setup with some cushion can sustain for long.
- Under certain conditions (like now), growth stocks and value stocks can behave VERY differently.
- Unexpected large medical expenses will happen every year regardless of your insurance situation, so just assume they're going to happen and incorporate them into the budget. Ask me about adult dental work. :-O

Changes made or in progress:
- I've used tax-loss harvesting from my bonds to allow some shifting out of my growth stock funds while cancelling out the capgains.
- I'm about to buy a lot more I-bonds as "gifts" between myself and my spouse, now, to get the 9.62%. See https://thefinancebuff.com/buy-i-bonds-as-gift.html
- I did a heavy shift of BND into VGSH, short-term treasuries. I now have a more balanced portfolio of short-term and intermediate-term bonds, and I'm camped on enough VGSH that I can go for years and not have to touch my BND. Since VGSH has a much shorter duration, it won't crater like BND did if there are further interest rate increases. This could be considered "selling BND at a low", but at this point I don't care, I need the security of more short-term treasuries. I do still hold some BND and similar mid-term bonds, just not nearly as much.
- I'm investigating TIPs, how much I want to buy, and which part of my portfolio to buy them in (presumably should be in non-taxable).
- I'm about to start a bond ladder of 2-year treasuries to cover future-me living expenses. A true bond ladder gives me the ability to hold the bonds to term and not worry about price fluctuations. After 2 years I get my money back, No Matter What.

I haven't panic-sold and shifted to cash. I don't play with options or meme stocks.

As of this moment, my total portfolio value is about the same value as it was the day that I retired in 2020, but now we're at 9% inflation so the real value has dropped quite a bit. And stock prices are still dropping.

There's negligible discretionary spending that I can subtract to cut expenses - we haven't been traveling or eating out due to COVID, so all major components of our annual expenses are essentially mandatory.

I haven't yet seriously contemplated going back to work, however I continue to watch my LinkedIn auto-emailed search results for positions similar to the tech role that I used to have, to keep an eye on what's out there. If the downturn continues, it's conceivable that I'll have to go back into the workforce to bring my total portfolio value back up to a safe range.

If a future Congress (think 2025) repeals the Affordable Care Act, that will end my early retirement and I'll be forced to return to work.

- RV
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tooluser
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by tooluser »

1. Are you resolved to completely stay the course on your retirement plan as it stood when you first pulled the trigger, or are you considering any short-term changes such as picking up some part-time work?
I'm not retired yet, but the paperwork is in for a few months from now. I am staying the course, because I had already considered the possibility of a 50% drop and am comfortable that I have done all I could to build appropriate pad into my plan, budget, and retirement decision point. I would consider going back into the work world only as a last resort of impending poverty or long-term boredom, neither of which I think are likely for me.
2. Are you feeling hopeful since these events are 'baked in' to SWR scenarios already, or is it more difficult than you expected emotionally?
Hope is not a strategy, so I do not feel hopeful. A well thought out plan gives me good confidence though. That plan did not appear overnight, it took several years to develop fully. If you can afford to retire into a declining market you are likely better off long-term than retiring at the peak. My biggest fear is out-of-control inflation. There is no perfect defense against it.
3. What have you found surprising, especially if it's something helpful, that you didn't expect either about your own reactions or how your finances were impacted? For example in other forums, I've noticed people with larger 'cash stashes' seemed more relaxed, regardless of whether that's a technically wise strategy or not.
I look back at the spreadsheet I use to gauge my retirement financial readiness, and on paper I was in a better position last Fall. However, the number on paper is a bit misleading. If I had retired then, I would have had a lower pension and more time to live, while my portfolio shrank with the market the same amount either way. So there are offsetting factors that get better with time even though the market goes down.
Like good comrades to the utmost of their strength, we shall go on to the end. -- Winston Churchill
timboo
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by timboo »

Believe it or not, I just put in my retirement notice today. I'm 55 and the market scares me a bit, but I think if I waited till I felt 100% comfortable, I might never retire. I live a pretty humble life, so I should be fine.
averagedude
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by averagedude »

Very good questions for a person who just retired one month ago.
1. I am resolved to completely stay the course on my financial plan.
2. I really am aware of the sequence of returns risk, especially considering valuations and the outstanding returns of the last several years. My plan will achieve success if me or my spouse can at least achieve a 0% real return on our investments over the next 35 years.
3. I still have a spouse working for a couple more years, so it is easy for me to say. If she retires next year, we have the next 10 years of spending covered in fixed income investments.
I really have no worries. If I was going to name a worry that wouldn't be a black swan event,it would be the purchasing power of my fixed income investments.
Exchme
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by Exchme »

9-5 Suited wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 5:46 pm
ktdintex wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 4:03 pm First, I set aside a little more than 2 years of cash when I retired. I'm not selling anything now, so the current market value doesn't directly affect me. I will draw down my cash and plan to replenish it back to a 2 year cushion at the end of 2022 / beginning of 2023.
I’m becoming a big fan of this idea for the psychological benefit given retirement and drawing down assets will be a totally new experience. Honestly even if it means saving an extra 2 years of cash in addition to “my number” that would be OK. I’m 95% confident in my ability to stay the course even without this approach, but this would cover that 5% risk that I’m not as Spockian as I’d like to believe.
You realize that's just a psychological trick to stay calm, right? When the market is down, you have a smaller portfolio, it doesn't matter which pocket you pay for groceries from.

While it seems intriguing to hold a big cash reserve (I was building one before seeing the advice on the forum), big cash reserves tend to be self defeating. For instance, there was a thread the other day where someone held multiple years worth of cash and was asking if they should now spend it down. But they'd been holding it for a while and the result of holding the cash during the good times was they lost out on gains that could have helped them today. For every possible case where you time it just right to have a bucket of cash, there are other, just as likely, scenarios where you need the return you could have gotten by being invested. On average of course, the cash loses out, so that's the only real information we have to go on.
Tjb
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by Tjb »

I am retiring end of May 2022 ( in a few weeks) Turn 63 the day I retire. I posted a while back on my plan and considered leaving earlier, but got into 1 more year syndrome, then decided to pull the trigger. I gave 9 months notice due to my position, and at that time, honestly thought the pandemic was done and honestly was believing that inflation was transitional, as some of it likely is, but some not. Since then, I've had some second thoughts, but decided to stick with the plan, which leads to the plan I had that just might work out.

My plan was to combine, The Christine Benze Bucket Apparoach, along with Liability Matching, along with the 3 fund portfolio, and then after it's all set up. look at total return. It got decent reviews when I posted it, so here is the simple version.

Bucket 1 : Holds 7 years laddered CD's, Bonds and Mygas to cover a similar salary I had during work for 7 years until 70 and SS kicks in. Side note, by staying the extra year, me, my wife and my youngest (sr in college) can stay on my companies health plan until I turn 65. Very low cost and a good plan. After that, we would need to buy a plan for my wife who is 5 years younger, my son will be working by then and have his own insurance.

Bucket 2: I will have enough in Bucket 2, that with a 4% return for 7 years, the total in that Bucket will be enough to pay the same salary as Bucket 1 was paying, plus SS, so that helps with inflation, until I am 83 yr old (13 more yers). Right now, 7 year Mygas are close to 4% gauranteed, and if the 10 year gets there, I could avoid the market altogether. The reality is, that might be it for me by then anyway, not many write ups in the Obits over 83, but maybe I'll get luckey and live longer.

Buckets 1 is set up now, bucket 2, I am working on . I have the funds for both of them. I'm trying to decide if I should split bucket 2 up between the fixed MYGA idea and add the ballanced index fund, or the S&P fund, or just go with life strategy conservtive growth, I might divide it up since the market is dropping now, so DCA in and watch the fixed rates. I likely would not put it all into a MYGA since it's not insured, so splitting is more likely

Buckets 3 & 4 will be filled 1 year after I retire and transfer company ESOP into the IRA and divide it up 50/50

Bucket 3 will be for years after I turn 83, and my wife who is 5 years younger, to live off of in our "slow go - no go" years
Bucket 4 will be legacy and I've considered 50/50 or possibly even EE bonds
Buckets 3 and 4 will likely be 20 year investments, unless I have to tap into them due to impact of bucket 2 how it's placed.

So, I have LMP set up with buckets 1-2 covering expenses for 20 yrs, just spend down ladders, and add SS to cover inflation
Buckets 3-4 will be invested in a 3 fund portfolio allocation to result in my total portfolio to be somewhere between 30/70 and 40/60
My withdrawal rate on the total will only need to be 2.8% which should be doable with 40/60 and 30/70.

So, the short story, 2.8% SWR and low volatility for the first 20 yrs. I know I may need to tap into Bucketd 3-4 for health care or some other big item, so there's some safety there.

Last, Our house is paid for, all tuition for 3 kids paid for and 500K in cash to be used for paying taxes on Roth Conversions, or any big ticket item we want to buy without needed to remove from the IRA.

All that said, I still worry, but it seems like a reasonable approach.
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HomerJ
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by HomerJ »

Exchme wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 8:49 pm
9-5 Suited wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 5:46 pm
ktdintex wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 4:03 pm First, I set aside a little more than 2 years of cash when I retired. I'm not selling anything now, so the current market value doesn't directly affect me. I will draw down my cash and plan to replenish it back to a 2 year cushion at the end of 2022 / beginning of 2023.
I’m becoming a big fan of this idea for the psychological benefit given retirement and drawing down assets will be a totally new experience. Honestly even if it means saving an extra 2 years of cash in addition to “my number” that would be OK. I’m 95% confident in my ability to stay the course even without this approach, but this would cover that 5% risk that I’m not as Spockian as I’d like to believe.
You realize that's just a psychological trick to stay calm, right? When the market is down, you have a smaller portfolio, it doesn't matter which pocket you pay for groceries from.
Psychology is a big part of investing.

And I don't think it's a trick. Of course it matters which pocket you pay the groceries from. Paying from cash that hasn't dropped, and letting stocks recover instead of selling them at a loss makes a lot of sense.
While it seems intriguing to hold a big cash reserve (I was building one before seeing the advice on the forum), big cash reserves tend to be self defeating. For instance, there was a thread the other day where someone held multiple years worth of cash and was asking if they should now spend it down. But they'd been holding it for a while and the result of holding the cash during the good times was they lost out on gains that could have helped them today.
Holding cash does indeed mean you're very likely to have lower returns.

But in retirement, you're not shooting for MORE MONEY. You already had enough... That's why you retired.
For every possible case where you time it just right to have a bucket of cash, there are other, just as likely, scenarios where you need the return you could have gotten by being invested. On average of course, the cash loses out, so that's the only real information we have to go on.
It's not about timing it right where cash was the best choice. It's definitely not about there being scenarios where you NEED the return by being fully invested. If you need the return that a 100/0 stocks portfolio is likely to give, you shouldn't retire yet.

Nothing at all wrong with a cash buffer. You have to stop thinking about maximizing returns, and start thinking about minimizing losses when you retire.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Derpalator
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by Derpalator »

Retired October 2021. 65/35 portfolio. Changed from Total Bond/Munis to 100% inflation-indexed in December 2021 as always had been part of the plan AND had already seen increased inflation for over 6 months. It did suck to be buying fixed income with guaranteed losses of about 1% at the time. Being a child of the 60s/70/80s still remember those retirees not having enough to live on due to inflation. Do not carry much cash and just withdraw when needed. Currently have spent 2/3 of planned for the year, with the planned being 25-30% below what we could spend (DW is so very conservative).

With respect to your questions:

1. Remain resolved to retirement plan using TPAW/ABW. As portfolio has decreased due to market conditions, yields have risen enough to offset losses. My spending plan has not changed, nor has legacy.

2. Do remain hopeful as pre-retirement planning seems to have this/these scenarios covered. Some tension (a little) in talking with DW (OMG, we're DOWN over 1.xxxx MILLION since retirement!) but I have over a decade of goodwill built since adopting Boglehead methodology, so there is that. With each big drop, calculations were reviewed and the robust nature of the plan shines through. :D

3. Has been surprising to see interest rates finally go up. People on this forum, and elsewhere, have been predicting higher rates for over a decade. So pay attention to your fixed income, in context of your personal financial situation and risk profile.
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Wiggums
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by Wiggums »

Tjb wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 9:19 pm I am retiring end of May 2022 ( in a few weeks) Turn 63 the day I retire. I posted a while back on my plan and considered leaving earlier, but got into 1 more year syndrome, then decided to pull the trigger. I gave 9 months notice due to my position, and at that time, honestly thought the pandemic was done and honestly was believing that inflation was transitional, as some of it likely is, but some not. Since then, I've had some second thoughts, but decided to stick with the plan, which leads to the plan I had that just might work out.

My plan was to combine, The Christine Benze Bucket Apparoach, along with Liability Matching, along with the 3 fund portfolio, and then after it's all set up. look at total return. It got decent reviews when I posted it, so here is the simple version.

Bucket 1 : Holds 7 years laddered CD's, Bonds and Mygas to cover a similar salary I had during work for 7 years until 70 and SS kicks in. Side note, by staying the extra year, me, my wife and my youngest (sr in college) can stay on my companies health plan until I turn 65. Very low cost and a good plan. After that, we would need to buy a plan for my wife who is 5 years younger, my son will be working by then and have his own insurance.

Bucket 2: I will have enough in Bucket 2, that with a 4% return for 7 years, the total in that Bucket will be enough to pay the same salary as Bucket 1 was paying, plus SS, so that helps with inflation, until I am 83 yr old (13 more yers). Right now, 7 year Mygas are close to 4% gauranteed, and if the 10 year gets there, I could avoid the market altogether. The reality is, that might be it for me by then anyway, not many write ups in the Obits over 83, but maybe I'll get luckey and live longer.

Buckets 1 is set up now, bucket 2, I am working on . I have the funds for both of them. I'm trying to decide if I should split bucket 2 up between the fixed MYGA idea and add the ballanced index fund, or the S&P fund, or just go with life strategy conservtive growth, I might divide it up since the market is dropping now, so DCA in and watch the fixed rates. I likely would not put it all into a MYGA since it's not insured, so splitting is more likely

Buckets 3 & 4 will be filled 1 year after I retire and transfer company ESOP into the IRA and divide it up 50/50

Bucket 3 will be for years after I turn 83, and my wife who is 5 years younger, to live off of in our "slow go - no go" years
Bucket 4 will be legacy and I've considered 50/50 or possibly even EE bonds
Buckets 3 and 4 will likely be 20 year investments, unless I have to tap into them due to impact of bucket 2 how it's placed.

So, I have LMP set up with buckets 1-2 covering expenses for 20 yrs, just spend down ladders, and add SS to cover inflation
Buckets 3-4 will be invested in a 3 fund portfolio allocation to result in my total portfolio to be somewhere between 30/70 and 40/60
My withdrawal rate on the total will only need to be 2.8% which should be doable with 40/60 and 30/70.

So, the short story, 2.8% SWR and low volatility for the first 20 yrs. I know I may need to tap into Bucketd 3-4 for health care or some other big item, so there's some safety there.

Last, Our house is paid for, all tuition for 3 kids paid for and 500K in cash to be used for paying taxes on Roth Conversions, or any big ticket item we want to buy without needed to remove from the IRA.

All that said, I still worry, but it seems like a reasonable approach.
Your approach is very reasonable. We have no regrets holding several years of cash. You still want the rest invested. Things will turn the corner as the supply chair improves.
Investors need to be better informed about the costs they pay. “High fund fees can be hazardous to your wealth in the same way that high calories can be hazardous for your health.”
MrLoco
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by MrLoco »

My wife and I are both retired in our early 60's. I have been thru market downturns in the past as most of you have. The tech bubble burst in 2000 and the financial crisis at the end of 2008. The big difference now is that back then we didn't have the size portfolio we have today.
YTD we are down about 10%. You might say 'that's not so bad." True % wise not so bad but $$ wise it is about $600,000 and we have an AA of 50/50!

I was thinking .....$600,000.......down in only 4 months! That's a house! ANd our stock funds are all index funds. Nothing too exotic although we do have a tilt toward small caps.
One thing we do have going for us is we both have pensions.....my wife with a COLA and we have about $600,000 of cash set aside.
I have struggled with this because this represents at least 7 years of expenses not even including the pensions. And I know it is a drag on the portfolio but the cash is about 10% of the overall portfolio. Now, I am glad we have so much cash. Every day the balance does not decrease like other assets (yes I know that inflation eats at purchasing power). But so much cash is a nice cushion meaning never having to sell stocks or bonds ( both which are declining ) in this market.

The "sleep at night " factor is a true phenomena.
1moreyr
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by 1moreyr »

This thread is much more helpful than I thought it would be. Not much of a touchy feely guy and almost didn't open a "feelings" thread.

I retired 2/4/22. I pretty much knew that whenever I retired this would be the outcome as this is my luck.

On 2/25/22 I was in the process of consolidating my DW 401ks, IRAs from 4 places to Schwab to make it easier. It came over as 600K in cash. I froze because I knew there was no good place to put it. It's market frozen, not market timing. I have seen this movie before on Fed raising rates.

I also had been adding cash to ALLYbank at a whopping .65% in CDs for the last 12 months of my job. I knew I needed a better plan but I was busy working. This got me to 65/20/15 as I entered retirement Granted I am now at 50/20/20 and sitting on a lot of cash but I have avoided almost all of the 18% drop that VTSAX has had with this money because that's where it was going. So what I lost in inflation i am probably even or a little ahead at the moment.

1. I am now moving some of VBTLX to VTSAX in a balancing move and backfilling some cash with Treasuries tied to my 5 year plan to SS. This takes the VBTLX that's down 10% and acquires VTSAX down 18% and aligns new bond money at higher rates and puts the money when I need it. I expect to have all long term cash deployed back to allocations by late summer. I am not trying to time the bottom. I am trying to be very thoughtful about this next phase of decumulation.

viewtopic.php?p=6667272#

2. I am spending more than expected this year. I have been to Florida, then Hawaii (last week) and have 3 more trips planned by September. I purchased a new car in 2021 and have one on order for DW , both purchased with cash. I also have $20K in house repairs going on. I am not worried yet as all but the trips should be one time items and set me up for less maintenance costs for the next 7 years.

The vacations were all planned before everything turned ugly. That is why I retired at 58. To do things while i still can. Otherwise, i may as well just go back to work. I was told you spend more in your first year. .. I thought "not me, i am too frugal"... not true, I have spent more in the last 12 months than I can ever remember doing.... think about this as you retire. it most likely will happen to you. Be prepared. My WR is a 3.2% forecasted when i was shooting for 2.75% for all my pre retirement planning.

3. I still read linkedin emails on all the jobs that come in. I usually have lunch or a phone call with old colleagues that are still working. It always cures me to not think about it anymore.

4. I am reading more on BH and other sites and spending more time on learning fixed income , which I thought I understood.

5. I am not overly concerned because i have a strong plan and I may also have a 12 month gig next year. At least it was discussed as I left. I am not sure I want it, but 12 months is a long way away at the moment.

I used to spend tons of hours analyzing my plan to retirement. Now I spend tons of hours analyzing my plan for retirement. .. I never expected that.
marcopolo
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by marcopolo »

Exchme wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 8:49 pm
9-5 Suited wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 5:46 pm
ktdintex wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 4:03 pm First, I set aside a little more than 2 years of cash when I retired. I'm not selling anything now, so the current market value doesn't directly affect me. I will draw down my cash and plan to replenish it back to a 2 year cushion at the end of 2022 / beginning of 2023.
I’m becoming a big fan of this idea for the psychological benefit given retirement and drawing down assets will be a totally new experience. Honestly even if it means saving an extra 2 years of cash in addition to “my number” that would be OK. I’m 95% confident in my ability to stay the course even without this approach, but this would cover that 5% risk that I’m not as Spockian as I’d like to believe.
You realize that's just a psychological trick to stay calm, right? When the market is down, you have a smaller portfolio, it doesn't matter which pocket you pay for groceries from.

While it seems intriguing to hold a big cash reserve (I was building one before seeing the advice on the forum), big cash reserves tend to be self defeating. For instance, there was a thread the other day where someone held multiple years worth of cash and was asking if they should now spend it down. But they'd been holding it for a while and the result of holding the cash during the good times was they lost out on gains that could have helped them today. For every possible case where you time it just right to have a bucket of cash, there are other, just as likely, scenarios where you need the return you could have gotten by being invested. On average of course, the cash loses out, so that's the only real information we have to go on.
I am not a big fan of holding a lot of cash, hardly have any myself.

But, wouldn't following your reasoning above lead everyone to be 100% invested in equities, or whatever has the largest expected returns.

Substitute the word "bond" for "cash" in your post, and it would seem to argue for never holding bonds either.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
livesoft
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by livesoft »

My spouse retired earlier this year. She is completely oblivious to the actions of the markets and the value of our retirement assets. If a Fidelity rep had not reached her on her cell phone to try to sow some Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt, then she would not even know what Bogleheads talk about all day.
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by jebmke »

livesoft wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 7:01 am My spouse retired earlier this year. She is completely oblivious to the actions of the markets and the value of our retirement assets. If a Fidelity rep had not reached her on her cell phone to try to sow some Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt, then she would not even know what Bogleheads talk about all day.
My wife was a portfolio manager many years ago. She has no interest now but hears the various news reports about current markets on her normal radio station. “I don’t understand all the hair fires; it was a lot worse than this right after you retired in 2007. Seems like people have short memories.”
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.
ktdintex
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by ktdintex »

HomerJ wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 10:34 pm
Exchme wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 8:49 pm
9-5 Suited wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 5:46 pm
ktdintex wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 4:03 pm First, I set aside a little more than 2 years of cash when I retired. I'm not selling anything now, so the current market value doesn't directly affect me. I will draw down my cash and plan to replenish it back to a 2 year cushion at the end of 2022 / beginning of 2023.
I’m becoming a big fan of this idea for the psychological benefit given retirement and drawing down assets will be a totally new experience. Honestly even if it means saving an extra 2 years of cash in addition to “my number” that would be OK. I’m 95% confident in my ability to stay the course even without this approach, but this would cover that 5% risk that I’m not as Spockian as I’d like to believe.
You realize that's just a psychological trick to stay calm, right? When the market is down, you have a smaller portfolio, it doesn't matter which pocket you pay for groceries from.
Psychology is a big part of investing.

And I don't think it's a trick. Of course it matters which pocket you pay the groceries from. Paying from cash that hasn't dropped, and letting stocks recover instead of selling them at a loss makes a lot of sense.
While it seems intriguing to hold a big cash reserve (I was building one before seeing the advice on the forum), big cash reserves tend to be self defeating. For instance, there was a thread the other day where someone held multiple years worth of cash and was asking if they should now spend it down. But they'd been holding it for a while and the result of holding the cash during the good times was they lost out on gains that could have helped them today.
Holding cash does indeed mean you're very likely to have lower returns.

But in retirement, you're not shooting for MORE MONEY. You already had enough... That's why you retired.
For every possible case where you time it just right to have a bucket of cash, there are other, just as likely, scenarios where you need the return you could have gotten by being invested. On average of course, the cash loses out, so that's the only real information we have to go on.
It's not about timing it right where cash was the best choice. It's definitely not about there being scenarios where you NEED the return by being fully invested. If you need the return that a 100/0 stocks portfolio is likely to give, you shouldn't retire yet.

Nothing at all wrong with a cash buffer. You have to stop thinking about maximizing returns, and start thinking about minimizing losses when you retire.
Agreed on all points above. The only thing I'll add is that folks who are against big cash reserves for retirement / impending retirement probably aren't actually retired or near retirement, so they aren't faced with the prospect of leaving near term money in the market that might drop in value. Or they have a pension, SS, or other steady source of monthly income aside from their portfolio. In my case, I'm 49 and relying on my investments to carry me forward, so a cash cushion has been a big source of comfort.
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9-5 Suited
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by 9-5 Suited »

Third Son wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:38 pm Retired February 2020 right before Covid. It has been strange to say the least. I moved to 40/60 late last year. In January of this year we withdrew our yearly calculated spend and are working off of that. It is not enjoyable to see the portfolio drop so much but we have been in the game for a long time. Reading and posting here keeps me level headed. Staying where I am.

62....no pension. I will take SS at FRA.
What a retirement month! Quite the ride I'm sure both down and up, and I can definitely appreciate the positive influence of continuing to read and post here. That has helped me keep balanced perspective as well.
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by jebmke »

Third Son wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:38 pm Retired February 2020 right before Covid. It has been strange to say the least. I moved to 40/60 late last year. In January of this year we withdrew our yearly calculated spend and are working off of that. It is not enjoyable to see the portfolio drop so much but we have been in the game for a long time. Reading and posting here keeps me level headed. Staying where I am.

62....no pension. I will take SS at FRA.
I know what you mean. I retired at the end of December, 2007. Pension not to start for 11 years (2019). I glided to 40/60 over the three years prior to retirement using new money to buy more bonds.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.
trueson1
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by trueson1 »

Retired at the end of 2021 at 66. Similar to much of what has been said here already.

To avoid a big sequence of returns hit right out of the gate decided to keep two years expenses in cash. Also have a pension and DW's SS which fund about 1/3 of expenses. Holding off on my SS until 70.

60/40 stock/bond portfolio and I'm holding fast and I'm comfortable with this approach.
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by 9-5 Suited »

Exchme wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 8:49 pm You realize that's just a psychological trick to stay calm, right? When the market is down, you have a smaller portfolio, it doesn't matter which pocket you pay for groceries from.
Well, to answer your question I think my position of recognizing it's a psychological trick is reasonably clear from comments in this thread:
9-5 Suited wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 5:46 pm For example in other forums, I've noticed people with larger 'cash stashes' seemed more relaxed, regardless of whether that's a technically wise strategy or not.
9-5 Suited wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 5:46 pm I’m becoming a big fan of this idea for the psychological benefit given retirement and drawing down assets will be a totally new experience.
Lots of things in the world of investing (and beyond) are just psychological tricks. I promise you computers don't love their spouses or experience fear during risky events.

And for the record, what I proposed specifically in the comment you referred to (saving an additional 2x expenses above and beyond my number in order to fund the first 2 years of retirement in cash) absolutely will not harm my prospects of success and is different than a bucket strategy on existing assets. It's a recognition that I'm a human being, not a simulator program, and retirement is a large life change event so giving yourself a runway of cash to adjust to it seems very prudent.

Lastly, I think you should take note of how many people in this thread have expressed a positive attitude toward a small cash buffer. I agree a Yale professor doing a paper on optimal retirement strategies wouldn't suggest this approach, but then again those professors says idiotic things like "huge leverage is great as a young investor because even though you may get totally wiped out you can just start again with more earned income capital." Oh yeah, if you don't commit self harm, get divorced, or spiral into a depression along the way of course.
KineticSync
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by KineticSync »

I'm exactly 4 weeks from retirement today. No plans to change plans. Current allocation is 65/35 with most FI in a stable value fund. We have 6 years of income in stable value, plus another 3 or so in total bond. We're 65 and bridging to SS. She's taking hers later this year at FRA and I'm waiting until 70.

I'm honestly kind of relieved this is happening now. The craziness from the excess money, from real estate to crypto to consumer goods shortages, is something I'd rather not deal with later. An example: looking at houses+property in Arkansas. Saw a house that was purchased in 2017 for $275K listed now at $460K. No changes or upgrades to the property. We'll see what happens going forward.

No regrets. Part of the risk assessment is our health and mortality. We've buried way too many people recently who were full of life and had big plans for the future.
CloseEnough
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by CloseEnough »

I find this an interesting discussion. For most retirees, you will have perhaps 30 or even 40 years in retirement. So you will certainly experience a number of bear markets during your retirement. It just says to me that your overall plan has to have enough buffer in it to weather downturns. If it happens to come near the beginning of a retirement, makes it scarier but what's the choice, work forever? There are lots of uncertainties in life, this just being one more, some of the risk of which can be reduced through good planning (some, not all!!).
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by Ramjet »

CloseEnough wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 12:34 pm For most retirees, you will have perhaps 30 or even 40 years in retirement
More like 17 - 19 years

Avg. U.S. retirement age: 62

Avg. life expectancy of a man: 79

Avg. life expectancy of a woman: 81
VT & HFEA
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by 9-5 Suited »

KineticSync wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 11:40 am I'm honestly kind of relieved this is happening now. The craziness from the excess money, from real estate to crypto to consumer goods shortages, is something I'd rather not deal with later.
Yeah it's certainly a good test of one's temperament and asset allocation appropriateness, as are all bear markets. And with the inflation aspect, this one has a more fear-evoking narrative than say the 2018 bear market (at least IMO). Hopefully it truly is a reset to more appropriate and sustainable long-term asset values, and stocks and bonds give us a nice run after the dust settles. With 1% nominal yields and a CAPE near 40 not long ago, the tenor of the forum was quite bleak about future return prospects anyway.
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by jebmke »

Ramjet wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 12:44 pm
CloseEnough wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 12:34 pm For most retirees, you will have perhaps 30 or even 40 years in retirement
More like 17 - 19 years

Avg. U.S. retirement age: 62

Avg. life expectancy of a man: 79

Avg. life expectancy of a woman: 81
Are the last two conditional expectancies? the relevant number would be the expected age at death given that you have reached 62 already, right? That culls out all the deaths prior to age 62 from the actuarial data.

I also wonder if one excludes people who never retire if the conditional expectancy changes. I have no idea.
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Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by Third Son »

9-5 Suited wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 9:45 am
Third Son wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:38 pm Retired February 2020 right before Covid. It has been strange to say the least. I moved to 40/60 late last year. In January of this year we withdrew our yearly calculated spend and are working off of that. It is not enjoyable to see the portfolio drop so much but we have been in the game for a long time. Reading and posting here keeps me level headed. Staying where I am.

62....no pension. I will take SS at FRA.
What a retirement month! Quite the ride I'm sure both down and up, and I can definitely appreciate the positive influence of continuing to read and post here. That has helped me keep balanced perspective as well.
Yes I found out in retrospect that I checked a lot of boxes.

1. Retired right before pandemic.... Check✔️
2. Sold our house right as the market exploded... Check✔️
3. Couldn't find a place to live.... Check✔️
4. Couldn't travel..... Check✔️
5. Rented for a year because we couldn't find a decent house and didn't want to overpay. Check ✔️
6. Market began trending down... Check ✔️
7. Found a condo to live in while the market cools. Check ✔️

after all of that.... we are still OK. life is what happens when you are making plans. I should mention that prior to selling our house we had sold four houses on our own and never had a problem finding a new one. Renting was also a struggle for a while. what a perfect storm. I am glad that I changed my asset allocation.
Last edited by Third Son on Fri May 13, 2022 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"A part of all you earn is yours to keep" | | -The Richest Man in Babylon
Ramjet
Posts: 1414
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:45 am
Location: Ohio

Re: 2021/2022 retirees: your feelings

Post by Ramjet »

jebmke wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 1:00 pm
Ramjet wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 12:44 pm
CloseEnough wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 12:34 pm For most retirees, you will have perhaps 30 or even 40 years in retirement
More like 17 - 19 years

Avg. U.S. retirement age: 62

Avg. life expectancy of a man: 79

Avg. life expectancy of a woman: 81
Are the last two conditional expectancies? the relevant number would be the expected age at death given that you have reached 62 already, right? That culls out all the deaths prior to age 62 from the actuarial data.

I also wonder if one excludes people who never retire if the conditional expectancy changes. I have no idea.
No clue. Only point is I don't think most people have 30 or 40 year retirements. Most would be 90 or 100 years old around time of death
VT & HFEA
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