It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

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Admiral Fun
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It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by Admiral Fun »

The May Green Street Premium to NAV moved to -5.2%, suggesting that commercial real estate is overvalued. https://www.greenstreet.com/insights/avgpremnav

Per my IPS, I exchanged $180,000 of TIAA Real Estate for total stock market funds. TREA has grown 12% in the last 6 months while the total stock market has declined by about 15%.

I don't own bonds so this is all the dry powder I have. Time will tell whether I am a genius or a moron (so far moron is winning).

Has anyone been market timing? **ahem** I mean engaging in tactical asset allocation?

-Admiral Fun
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by runner3081 »

Couldn't even tell you what the market is doing. Though I suspect down with all of the TLH posts these days.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by secondopinion »

Admiral Fun wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 6:05 pm The May Green Street Premium to NAV moved to -5.2%, suggesting that commercial real estate is overvalued. https://www.greenstreet.com/insights/avgpremnav

Per my IPS, I exchanged $180,000 of TIAA Real Estate for total stock market funds. TREA has grown 12% in the last 6 months while the total stock market has declined by about 15%.

I don't own bonds so this is all the dry powder I have. Time will tell whether I am a genius or a moron (so far moron is winning).

Has anyone been market timing? **ahem** I mean engaging in tactical asset allocation?

-Admiral Fun
I have concavity in my asset allocation; you suggest buying dips and that is one such implementation of concavity. Does it help you to better meet your goals? If so, how?
Last edited by secondopinion on Fri May 06, 2022 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by VanguardInvestor1972 »

Trying not to, per the personal IPS :happy . Good of you to open this thread though as a reminder.

I have particularly kept my exposure to commercial real estate (which I do in addition to a basic three-fund Boglehead approach as a personal "tilt"). The reason I do so is that stocks and bonds both seem to have fallen recently in lockstep (see the WSJ this week, e.g. this https://www.wsj.com/articles/stocks-and ... 1651551170; apologies for paywall). The mostly-private commercial real estate I have held has not declined at the same rate so far as I can tell (those that report NAVs showed a modestly up first quarter, e.g.; those that pay monthly or quarterly have met their expected obligations to pay out). Without claiming false precision, it does seem to me that the advantage to keeping your exposure to commercial real estate in addition to the three-fund approach is that it might well be differently correlated. FWIW, it has seemed to me that the private real estate holdings I have are less correlated than the REITs that I track as part of my regular AA. I realize others on this Board will disagree but I am sticking with it for now. Haven't sold any.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by livesoft »

Admiral Fun wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 6:05 pm Per my IPS, I exchanged $180,000 of TIAA Real Estate for total stock market funds. TREA has grown 12% in the last 6 months while the total stock market has declined by about 15%.
So $180,000 is about the amount that one would have if they bought the limit $150,000 about a year ago. Are you selling 100% of your TREA aka QREARX?
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by camillus »

I have heard legends of the time-ability of TREA. From time to time I poke around to see what the TIAA forums at Morningstar are saying. I have been too chicken to stray from my three fund (with TRAD 3% GRSA as my "bond" position).

Please let me know when you buy back in ;-)
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by Admiral Fun »

livesoft wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 7:00 pm So $180,000 is about the amount that one would have if they bought the limit $150,000 about a year ago. Are you selling 100% of your TREA aka QREARX?
Yes, I bought in February 2021 and just sold out completely. My thesis is that TREA has benefitted from the recent spike in real estate values, and it will soon return to its long term return of around 6.5%. Meanwhile, stock valuations are starting to look more tempting.
camillus wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 7:27 pm Please let me know when you buy back in ;-)
For me to buy back in, Green Street's premium to NAV would have to be in the top quartile, which is around +10%.

Note: When the premium is above average on Jan 1, TREA returns an average 12.8% the following year. When the premium is below average on Jan 1, TREA returns an average of 5.2%. We are now well below average.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by camillus »

Admiral Fun wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 7:31 pmNote: When the premium is above average on Jan 1, TREA returns an average 12.8% the following year. When the premium is below average on Jan 1, TREA returns an average of 5.2%. We are now well below average.
even "below average" returns aren't that bad. With all the shifting thoughts around bond funds on this forum, I wonder if I need to take a fresh look at TREA. I've already abandoned bond funds for stable value funds. I wonder if TRAD and TREA combo would be a little better.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by randomguy »

Admiral Fun wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 6:05 pm The May Green Street Premium to NAV moved to -5.2%, suggesting that commercial real estate is overvalued. https://www.greenstreet.com/insights/avgpremnav

Per my IPS, I exchanged $180,000 of TIAA Real Estate for total stock market funds. TREA has grown 12% in the last 6 months while the total stock market has declined by about 15%.

I don't own bonds so this is all the dry powder I have. Time will tell whether I am a genius or a moron (so far moron is winning).

Has anyone been market timing? **ahem** I mean engaging in tactical asset allocation?

-Admiral Fun
I am glad your market timing worked out. Have you tracked how well it has worked out for you over time? How many other market timing rules do you have?
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by Admiral Fun »

randomguy wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 8:37 pm I am glad your market timing worked out. Have you tracked how well it has worked out for you over time? How many other market timing rules do you have?
This is the first time one of my rules has been triggered. One day in, It hasn’t worked out so well. My only other rule is when I buy back TREA. Fairly small part of my portfolio.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by livesoft »

Admiral Fun wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 9:03 pmThis is the first time one of my rules has been triggered. One day in, It hasn’t worked out so well. My only other rule is when I buy back TREA. Fairly small part of my portfolio.
That's great because here at Bogleheads.org you only get respect if your market timing loses money because with anything else no one would believe you.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by Fallible »

Admiral Fun wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 6:05 pm The May Green Street Premium to NAV moved to -5.2%, suggesting that commercial real estate is overvalued. https://www.greenstreet.com/insights/avgpremnav

Per my IPS, I exchanged $180,000 of TIAA Real Estate for total stock market funds. TREA has grown 12% in the last 6 months while the total stock market has declined by about 15%.

I don't own bonds so this is all the dry powder I have. Time will tell whether I am a genius or a moron (so far moron is winning).

Has anyone been market timing? **ahem** I mean engaging in tactical asset allocation? ...
You are investing based on a “suggestion,” so no matter what happens, you will be lucky or unlucky.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by Admiral Fun »

Fallible wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 9:22 pm You are investing based on a “suggestion,” so no matter what happens, you will be lucky or unlucky.
It's not a sure thing, but I think the odds are in my favor. Plus II'm feeling lucky :beer
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by camillus »

Hi Admiral Fun,

Just curious how your IPS is going. I have access to QREARX / trea and have been intrigued by your posts.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by pkcrafter »

Admiral Fun wrote:
It's not market timing if it's in your IPS
Yes, it's still market timing designed as a strategy. I'm not sure what sort of replies you're looking for, but your strategy doesn't conform to Bogleheads' investing.

Carry on!

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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by livesoft »

I decided to sell some TREA today because it has been languishing in the 2 months or so when others things went up more than 15%. I exchanged to a money market while I think about this.

Since this thread started on May 6, 2022, TREA has gone from 522.77 to reach 577+ and yesterday closed at 573.40, so up 9.7%.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by aristotelian »

What you are suggesting is rules-based or systematic market timing. It is still market timing in that the assumption is that you can somehow predict when assets are under or over-priced rather than assuming assets are always fairly priced. You are taking a risk of underperforming your target allocation.

You could probably achieve a similar result without market timing with a simple rebalancing rule. In this case, it is likely that your TREA is above target and stocks were below target.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by burritoLover »

Those that put market timing rules in their IPW typically end up modifying those rules anyway either because it isn't working well or they get lucky and it is working well (so they double down). So, it isn't even a rules-based market timing strategy anymore just active trading - might as well not even bother with an IPS at that point.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by Eagle33 »

aristotelian wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:07 pm What you are suggesting is rules-based or systematic market timing. It is still market timing in that the assumption is that you can somehow predict when assets are under or over-priced rather than assuming assets are always fairly priced. You are taking a risk of underperforming your target allocation.

You could probably achieve a similar result without market timing with a simple rebalancing rule. In this case, it is likely that your TREA is above target and stocks were below target.
Isn't rebalancing a rules based form of market timing?
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by aristotelian »

Eagle33 wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:28 am
aristotelian wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:07 pm What you are suggesting is rules-based or systematic market timing. It is still market timing in that the assumption is that you can somehow predict when assets are under or over-priced rather than assuming assets are always fairly priced. You are taking a risk of underperforming your target allocation.

You could probably achieve a similar result without market timing with a simple rebalancing rule. In this case, it is likely that your TREA is above target and stocks were below target.
Isn't rebalancing a rules based form of market timing?
No, it's maintaining a level allocation, pretty much the opposite of market timing.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by finite_difference »

livesoft wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:21 am I decided to sell some TREA today because it has been languishing in the 2 months or so when others things went up more than 15%. I exchanged to a money market while I think about this.

Since this thread started on May 6, 2022, TREA has gone from 522.77 to reach 577+ and yesterday closed at 573.40, so up 9.7%.
What % TREA did you start with/end up with?

I agree that TREA appears to have flatlined.

We can also only trade once per quarter or something?
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by livesoft »

finite_difference wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:39 pmWhat % TREA did you start with/end up with?
I sold about 80% of the TREA that I owned. I should've exchanged into a bond fund since that has gone up nicely in the past few days, but I didn't.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by nisiprius »

I can't agree with the thread title. Many people who self-identify as market timers say that they are following rules-based mechanical systems that could easily be written into an IPS.

Following hunches, intuition, and a sense of the psychology of the market--that is to say, acting on impulse--is not usually considered to be what is meant by "market timing."
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by livesoft »

nisiprius wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:38 pm....
Following hunches, intuition, and a sense of the psychology of the market--that is to say, [...]-- is not usually considered to be what is meant by "market timing."
Yep, nowadays that's called AI. :twisted:
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by Eagle33 »

aristotelian wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:59 am
Eagle33 wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:28 am
aristotelian wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:07 pm What you are suggesting is rules-based or systematic market timing. It is still market timing in that the assumption is that you can somehow predict when assets are under or over-priced rather than assuming assets are always fairly priced. You are taking a risk of underperforming your target allocation.

You could probably achieve a similar result without market timing with a simple rebalancing rule. In this case, it is likely that your TREA is above target and stocks were below target.
Isn't rebalancing a rules based form of market timing?
No, it's maintaining a level allocation, pretty much the opposite of market timing.
So what you are saying is don't try to predict what will happen (market timing), but okay to react to what actually has happened (rebalancing) in the market. Seems the later is a form of poor performance chasing.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by aristotelian »

Eagle33 wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:04 pm
aristotelian wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:59 am
Eagle33 wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:28 am
aristotelian wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:07 pm What you are suggesting is rules-based or systematic market timing. It is still market timing in that the assumption is that you can somehow predict when assets are under or over-priced rather than assuming assets are always fairly priced. You are taking a risk of underperforming your target allocation.

You could probably achieve a similar result without market timing with a simple rebalancing rule. In this case, it is likely that your TREA is above target and stocks were below target.
Isn't rebalancing a rules based form of market timing?
No, it's maintaining a level allocation, pretty much the opposite of market timing.
So what you are saying is don't try to predict what will happen (market timing), but okay to react to what actually has happened (rebalancing) in the market. Seems the later is a form of poor performance chasing.
The idea is to maintain diversification and a constant level.of risk versus expected return. If it rebalancing happens to outperform that is just gravy.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by grabiner »

Eagle33 wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:04 pm
aristotelian wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:59 am
Eagle33 wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:28 am Isn't rebalancing a rules based form of market timing?
No, it's maintaining a level allocation, pretty much the opposite of market timing.
So what you are saying is don't try to predict what will happen (market timing), but okay to react to what actually has happened (rebalancing) in the market. Seems the later is a form of poor performance chasing.
The difference between the two is that rebalancing is based on you, not on the market.

If 100% stock is the right risk level for you, and the stock market goes up, you should stay at 100% stock; the market isn't any more likely to go down just because it went up.

But if 60% stock is the right level for you, and the stock market goes up to move your allocation to 70%, then you should sell some stock. While the market is no more likely to go down, the risk to you if it does crash has increased, and you rebalance to get back to the previous level of risk.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by secondopinion »

grabiner wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 3:35 pm
Eagle33 wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:04 pm
aristotelian wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:59 am
Eagle33 wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:28 am Isn't rebalancing a rules based form of market timing?
No, it's maintaining a level allocation, pretty much the opposite of market timing.
So what you are saying is don't try to predict what will happen (market timing), but okay to react to what actually has happened (rebalancing) in the market. Seems the later is a form of poor performance chasing.
The difference between the two is that rebalancing is based on you, not on the market.

If 100% stock is the right risk level for you, and the stock market goes up, you should stay at 100% stock; the market isn't any more likely to go down just because it went up.

But if 60% stock is the right level for you, and the stock market goes up to move your allocation to 70%, then you should sell some stock. While the market is no more likely to go down, the risk to you if it does crash has increased, and you rebalance to get back to the previous level of risk.
In limited cases, changes in allocation based on total portfolio worth are not market timing. Think about this one carefully; I see many here who have this effectively happening without their knowledge if they have a minimum of X years in bonds, for example, as a safety bucket and stocks otherwise.

Convexity of net worth to risk is one key feature of an allocation not often considered.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by malabargold »

100% stocks since the late ‘60’s
No need to reallocate!
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by finite_difference »

livesoft wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:48 pm
finite_difference wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:39 pmWhat % TREA did you start with/end up with?
I sold about 80% of the TREA that I owned. I should've exchanged into a bond fund since that has gone up nicely in the past few days, but I didn't.
But are you selling 80% of something that comprises 1% of your portfolio? Or 10%?

I have approximately 8% in TREA. Have not tried to time it yet.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by livesoft »

It looks like I started with about 5% and ended up with about 1%.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by grabiner »

secondopinion wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 4:22 pm
grabiner wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 3:35 pm
Eagle33 wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:04 pm
aristotelian wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:59 am
Eagle33 wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:28 am Isn't rebalancing a rules based form of market timing?
No, it's maintaining a level allocation, pretty much the opposite of market timing.
So what you are saying is don't try to predict what will happen (market timing), but okay to react to what actually has happened (rebalancing) in the market. Seems the later is a form of poor performance chasing.
The difference between the two is that rebalancing is based on you, not on the market.

If 100% stock is the right risk level for you, and the stock market goes up, you should stay at 100% stock; the market isn't any more likely to go down just because it went up.

But if 60% stock is the right level for you, and the stock market goes up to move your allocation to 70%, then you should sell some stock. While the market is no more likely to go down, the risk to you if it does crash has increased, and you rebalance to get back to the previous level of risk.
In limited cases, changes in allocation based on total portfolio worth are not market timing. Think about this one carefully; I see many here who have this effectively happening without their knowledge if they have a minimum of X years in bonds, for example, as a safety bucket and stocks otherwise.

Convexity of net worth to risk is one key feature of an allocation not often considered.
Agreed; again, the key is that this depends on you. If you would change your stock percentage if you won $100K in the lottery or spent $100K on medical bills, then you should make the same change if your net worth increases or decreases by $100K because of a rising or falling stock market.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by dknightd »

livesoft wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:21 am Since this thread started on May 6, 2022, TREA has gone from 522.77 to reach 577+ and yesterday closed at 573.40, so up 9.7%.
TREA has been doing very very well this year. Amazingly well. Not good enough to balance out my other losses, but it did put a dent in them. It looks like it maybe flattening, but who knows.

Funny this thread should resurface. I also sold some of my TREA recently. Some I put into stocks. Some I used to pay my tax bill.

I like to keep TREA at about 10% of my total allocation. It had creeped up to almost 15%. So it was time to sell some. I do not think I'd ever sell it all, but when it started slowly going down seemed like a good time to get some of it out. Now my taxes for the year are paid, and maybe I'll get lucky and stocks will go up next year as fast as TREA did last year.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by dknightd »

Admiral Fun wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 6:05 pm Has anyone been market timing? **ahem** I mean engaging in tactical asset allocation?

-Admiral Fun
I moved almost 1/2 of my flexible TIAA Traditional into money market 121 days ago. Then moved about 2/3 of it back into Traditional last Friday. The other 1/3 will go back in 1/1/2023 (so will be in a different vintage year). Does that count as "tactical asset allocation?"

edit: I never do 100% in or out of something. I'm too scared to do that. I need that money!
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by newbie001 »

It's tempting to try to time TREA, but I think that I will limit that to disaster scenarios like the GFC or for real estate-specific meltdowns. Simple corrections I can live with :) I held everything during COVID and that worked out well enough.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

Are IPS somewhat specious? Years ago, on the old Morningstar Bogleheads (Vanguard Diehards) site it was quite common to see a general recommendation of 50% TIPS and 50% total bond market fund for the fixed income sleeve. This was advocated by prominent Bogleheads. (Look it up.)

Then it fell out of favor with some, even among the long-tenured Bogleheads. (it won’t take long to find those posts on this forum.)

So what of the IPS that included 50% TIPS and 50% TBM?
Last edited by AlwaysLearningMore on Thu Feb 02, 2023 7:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by secondopinion »

It is good to see this thread again. :P

At this point, I am tossing out my old IPS because clearly it is too ignorant of the reality of the market nor have I really thought it through with the knowledge I now have. Fortunately/Unfortunately, I did not follow it.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by livesoft »

livesoft wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:21 am I decided to sell some TREA today because it has been languishing in the 2 months or so when others things went up more than 15%. I exchanged to a money market while I think about this.

Since this thread started on May 6, 2022, TREA has gone from 522.77 to reach 577+ and yesterday closed at 573.40, so up 9.7%.
An update with valuations from yesterday 2023-05-10 because commercial real estate vacancies have been in the news lately.
TREA (aka QREARX) had unit price of 533.1074 yesterday with YTD return of -4.28%. That's about -7% since the above post.

26 Empire State Buildings Could Fit Into New York’s Empty Office Space. That’s a Sign.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/08/busi ... state.html
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steve r
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TIAA RE

Post by steve r »

livesoft wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 10:09 am
livesoft wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:21 am I decided to sell some TREA today because it has been languishing in the 2 months or so when others things went up more than 15%. I exchanged to a money market while I think about this.

Since this thread started on May 6, 2022, TREA has gone from 522.77 to reach 577+ and yesterday closed at 573.40, so up 9.7%.
An update with valuations from yesterday 2023-05-10 because commercial real estate vacancies have been in the news lately.
TREA (aka QREARX) had unit price of 533.1074 yesterday with YTD return of -4.28%. That's about -7% since the above post.

26 Empire State Buildings Could Fit Into New York’s Empty Office Space. That’s a Sign.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/08/busi ... state.html
Further update. Now at $517.56.

The down trend continues. It had a couple of updates last week, so I moved back in. In part because of something I read a few weeks back, but mostly to rebalance/increase non-equity holdings and return back to closer to my prior allocation.

Second guessing this. It is not so much the down 0.20% or $300 ... yawn, but that the trend may not have bottomed.
"Owning the stock market over the long term is a winner's game. Attempting to beat the market is a loser's game. ..Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack." Jack Bogle
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by hkcj »

Admiral Fun wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 6:05 pm The May Green Street Premium to NAV moved to -5.2%, suggesting that commercial real estate is overvalued. https://www.greenstreet.com/insights/avgpremnav
I'm a bit confused by this chart. If the premium to NAV is negative, does that mean that the share price is under their estimate (share / estimate) or that their estimate is under the share price (estimated nav / share price)? Are you assuming their estimate or the market is better?
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by Admiral Fun »

hkcj wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2023 10:25 am
Admiral Fun wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 6:05 pm The May Green Street Premium to NAV moved to -5.2%, suggesting that commercial real estate is overvalued. https://www.greenstreet.com/insights/avgpremnav
I'm a bit confused by this chart. If the premium to NAV is negative, does that mean that the share price is under their estimate (share / estimate) or that their estimate is under the share price (estimated nav / share price)? Are you assuming their estimate or the market is better?
If premium to NAV is negative it says that publicly traded RE is trading for less than the NAV of privately held RE. If you assume that the public market is correct and that the private market lags, you can use this measure (at the extremes) to time TREA.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by JimInIllinois »

Relevant blog post: https://www.pim4you.com/blog/strategy-f ... eal-estate

In particular they note that "Assets can be transferred out of TIAA and then back into the TIAA Real Estate account in any amount." Has anyone tried that?
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by livesoft »

JimInIllinois wrote: Sat Aug 19, 2023 8:45 pm Relevant blog post: https://www.pim4you.com/blog/strategy-f ... eal-estate

In particular they note that "Assets can be transferred out of TIAA and then back into the TIAA Real Estate account in any amount." Has anyone tried that?
I'm not even sure what that sentence actually means.

TREA / QREARX closed at $510.42 this past week or -8.35% YTD.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by Admiral Fun »

livesoft wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 4:38 am
JimInIllinois wrote: Sat Aug 19, 2023 8:45 pm Relevant blog post: https://www.pim4you.com/blog/strategy-f ... eal-estate

In particular they note that "Assets can be transferred out of TIAA and then back into the TIAA Real Estate account in any amount." Has anyone tried that?
I'm not even sure what that sentence actually means.

TREA / QREARX closed at $510.42 this past week or -8.35% YTD.
I think it means that you can add to TREA beyond the account limit if you rollover your pre-tax account to TIAA.

I closed out my final TREA positions last November at the peak. It’s been a good run, but I think I’m done playing with this fund.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by livesoft »

Admiral Fun wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 7:11 amI think it means that you can add to TREA beyond the account limit if you rollover your pre-tax account to TIAA.
So "TIAA" means the company and not TIAA Traditional Annuity which would already be held at the company anyways?

Does it also mean that once you bought TREA since it is an annuity that one could only sell TREA and move to another annuity within the company? Or could one take it out of the company and move it externally to say a Vanguard IRA or a Schwab IRA?
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JimInIllinois
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by JimInIllinois »

livesoft wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 7:35 am
Admiral Fun wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 7:11 amI think it means that you can add to TREA beyond the account limit if you rollover your pre-tax account to TIAA.
So "TIAA" means the company and not TIAA Traditional Annuity which would already be held at the company anyways?

Does it also mean that once you bought TREA since it is an annuity that one could only sell TREA and move to another annuity within the company? Or could one take it out of the company and move it externally to say a Vanguard IRA or a Schwab IRA?
My interpretation is that if you transfer/roll-over funds from a 401(a), 403(b), IRA, etc. managed by TIAA to another provider (e.g., Fidelity), if you then move it back to TREA it is not considered an "internal funding vehicle transfer" and is therefore exempt from the $150,000 accumulation limit.

TREA is liquid (one sale per quarter) and you can move the funds anywhere. The liquidity guarantee from TIAA Traditional basically means that Traditional buys and sells TREA units so that TREA is not forced to liquidate properties during a mass exodus.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by livesoft »

TIAA Real Estate Account (QREARX) today had a price change of -1.27%. I don't think this magnitude change for a single day has happened in a long long time, if ever.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by Admiral Fun »

livesoft wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 7:15 pm TIAA Real Estate Account (QREARX) today had a price change of -1.27%. I don't think this magnitude change for a single day has happened in a long long time, if ever.
The Green Street Premium to NAV was -15.8 last month. I’m sure that will come up this month as REITs have risen, but still indicates that TREA may have farther to fall.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by livesoft »

Admiral Fun wrote: Fri Dec 01, 2023 6:48 am
livesoft wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 7:15 pm TIAA Real Estate Account (QREARX) today had a price change of -1.27%. I don't think this magnitude change for a single day has happened in a long long time, if ever.
The Green Street Premium to NAV was -15.8 last month. I’m sure that will come up this month as REITs have risen, but still indicates that TREA may have farther to fall.
That's quite interesting to me since the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund (VGSLX) was up +12.0% in the past month. I'm thinking that maybe one of TREA's properties finally got an updated appraisal and got marked to market. The Elves behind whatever price is struck fo TREA had been on an optimistic glide path to doom, but too optimistic apparently.
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Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Post by Admiral Fun »

livesoft wrote: Fri Dec 01, 2023 9:59 am
Admiral Fun wrote: Fri Dec 01, 2023 6:48 am
livesoft wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 7:15 pm TIAA Real Estate Account (QREARX) today had a price change of -1.27%. I don't think this magnitude change for a single day has happened in a long long time, if ever.
The Green Street Premium to NAV was -15.8 last month. I’m sure that will come up this month as REITs have risen, but still indicates that TREA may have farther to fall.
That's quite interesting to me since the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund (VGSLX) was up +12.0% in the past month. I'm thinking that maybe one of TREA's properties finally got an updated appraisal and got marked to market. The Elves behind whatever price is struck fo TREA had been on an optimistic glide path to doom, but too optimistic apparently.
Premium to NAV is now -1.6. Another month like last may trigger a buy signal for TREA!
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