TIPS Allocation and Duration

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Topic Author
spartyfanaa
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TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by spartyfanaa »

Hello Bogleheads -

Early retiree, 53; cash/cash equivalents until I reach 59.5;AA is 60/40; DIY investor, index funds

About 30% of my bond allocation is in TIPS (SWRSX) held in my T-IRA. The remainder is in VG Total Bond and a broad Muni Bond fund in taxable. I recently had a free consultation with my Schwab AM. He suggested that I move about 1/2 of SWRSX into a S-Term TIPS fund like VTIP. His reasoning was the short-term bond fund was better correlated to inflation and some exposure to shorter duration TIPS may be more beneficial than the longer duration SWRSX TIPS fund. I won't withdraw funds from my T-IRA for many years. I'm wondering if having a shorter duration TIPS fund makes sense if I don't intend to use the $ in the fund for several years? In other words, should the duration of the TIPS fund match my need for the $?

Two questions:
1. Is 30% allocation to TIPS reasonable for my age/stage in life? Schwab AM said it's reasonable.. maybe a little on the high side but not problematic.
2. What are your thoughts about staying in SWRSX or moving a portion of it to VTIP (shorter duration TIPS)

As always, thanks for your input.
MIretired
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by MIretired »

One thing about any shorter bonds now (their term risk), is the expectation of nearer future fed raising short rates. This will definitely hit short NAVs. But not intermediate and long NAVs. IM and long will be affected by future inflation expectations, though.
We see short bnds already taking a NAV hit.
Fed probably won't hit short NAVs by much to worry about, though.
MIretired
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by MIretired »

I've heard short tips follow cpi better from elsewhere, also. But don't recall why. Maybe less interest rate noise? Maybe some other reason.
I use tips as cpi adjusted emergency fund, and also cash for the future. It's always real valued cash, although a little correlated to equity returns.
Notwithstanding the neg real composite return beneath cpi current value.
chrisdds98
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by chrisdds98 »

vtip duration is very short duration, 2.5 years or so. personally, i would consider it a cash equivalent.

I am an early retiree as well and see inflation as a bigger risk to my hopefully very long retirement than deflation so I'm half SCHP (intermediate TIPS).
FactualFran
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by FactualFran »

In my opinion, having the current duration of a bond fund match when the money is expected to be needed is not very useful. What is useful is having individual bonds that mature when the money is expected to be needed, an approach known as liability matching.

At age 53 I was not retired and had about 15% of my portfolio in individual TIPS. Since then, I have retired, those TIPS have matured and I have 0% in TIPS. How much you have in TIPS is up to you.

A major difference between short-term and long-term TIPS funds is that the price of a long-term TIPS fund is more sensitive to changes in the yield of TIPS. Short-term and long-term TIPS get the same CPI-U adjustment. A dividend from short-term and long-term TIPS funds should include the same percent change in the CPI-U. The part of the dividend due to coupon payments will differ because long-term TIPS usually have a higher coupon rate.
Topic Author
spartyfanaa
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by spartyfanaa »

chrisdds98 wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:54 pm vtip duration is very short duration, 2.5 years or so. personally, i would consider it a cash equivalent.

I am an early retiree as well and see inflation as a bigger risk to my hopefully very long retirement than deflation so I'm half SCHP (intermediate TIPS).
I agree that Short Term TIPS appear to be cash equivalent. I have cash equivalent (money market, I-Bonds, Demand Notes, etc) to bridge me to 59.5. I was surprised the Schwab rep suggested Short Term TIPS given that some use it as an emergency fund, and I won't touch the $ for several years. My current TIPS fund has intermidate duration (about 7.5 years). Confused on next steps.
dbr
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by dbr »

The argument that protection from inflation is measured by how well the investment correlates with inflation is baloney.

All TIPS are compensated for inflation exactly, meaning there is no inflation risk in the holding at any duration.

In addition to changes in real value due to inflation (which TIPS don't have) the value of the investment can change due to duration risk, the fact that the market value of the bond changes when real interest rates change. A change in real interest rates is not inflation and does not defeat the fact that the investment is compensated for inflation. If a person has to actually see that the value in nominal dollars goes up exactly with inflation to believe that the investment is protected from inflation, then that person needs to hold short TIPS, or even better I bonds, but most people don't need to see that to understand what they have.

Whether or not a person can tolerate duration risk depends on the investor. There are incentives to have duration risk, such as the fact that the expected return is usually more and in order to match duration to liability. Currently the real yields for 5 year to 30 year TIPS range from -1.76% to -.48%, so the duration premium is only 1.28%, which is very little. That would be a reason to be short in TIPS now. A person holding an investment for a short time would hold a short duration, but everyone knows that already.
ivgrivchuck
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by ivgrivchuck »

Based on your description, it sounds like that this is money that you intend to spend many years from now.

In that case, I disagree with your advisor, I think you should keep the money in the long duration fund. This however means that you will have to stomach some higher short-term volatility. Meaning if interest rates rise rapidly, the fund will lose a lot of value.

It sounds like that your advisor is optimizing for short term volatility and short-term inflation reactiveness. I can't see a reason to do that considering that your objectives are more long term (assuming you can stomach the volatility...)
25% VTI | 25% VXUS | 12.5% AVUV | 10% AVDV | 2.5% VWO | 25% BND/SCHR/SCHP
dbr
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by dbr »

ivgrivchuck wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:55 pm Based on your description, it sounds like that this is money that you intend to spend many years from now.

In that case, I disagree with your advisor, I think you should keep the money in the long duration fund. This however means that you will have to stomach some higher short-term volatility. Meaning if interest rates rise rapidly, the fund will lose a lot of value.

It sounds like that your advisor is optimizing for short term volatility and short-term inflation reactiveness. I can't see a reason to do that considering that your objectives are more long term (assuming you can stomach the volatility...)
Exactly and that is why I call baloney on the idea. Note even Vanguard has a paper out there with the same, in my opinion, idea.
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Leif
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by Leif »

I use target date funds for "reasonableness" of my TIPS AA. Vanguard retirement 2020 (since you are retired) is around 10% of portfolio in short term TIPS. They have an allocation approx. 50/50. So that makes the TIPS around 20% of fixed income.

I have around 25% of my fixed income in TIPS funds. I use a combination of short and intermediate term TIPS. When my CD comes due, in my retirement account, I'm planning to move it to VTIP.
hudson
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by hudson »

spartyfanaa wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:23 am Hello Bogleheads -

Early retiree, 53; cash/cash equivalents until I reach 59.5;AA is 60/40; DIY investor, index funds

About 30% of my bond allocation is in TIPS (SWRSX) held in my T-IRA. The remainder is in VG Total Bond and a broad Muni Bond fund in taxable. I recently had a free consultation with my Schwab AM. He suggested that I move about 1/2 of SWRSX into a S-Term TIPS fund like VTIP. His reasoning was the short-term bond fund was better correlated to inflation and some exposure to shorter duration TIPS may be more beneficial than the longer duration SWRSX TIPS fund. I won't withdraw funds from my T-IRA for many years. I'm wondering if having a shorter duration TIPS fund makes sense if I don't intend to use the $ in the fund for several years? In other words, should the duration of the TIPS fund match my need for the $?

Two questions:
1. Is 30% allocation to TIPS reasonable for my age/stage in life? Schwab AM said it's reasonable.. maybe a little on the high side but not problematic.
2. What are your thoughts about staying in SWRSX or moving a portion of it to VTIP (shorter duration TIPS)

As always, thanks for your input.
I like SWRSX with an almost 8 year duration over short TIPS. It matches your duration better.
I would not sell SWRSX; I'd hold it. You are already in. I would stay.
I can't think of a reason to own short TIPS over longer TIPS.
Duration match? I vote yes.
Topic Author
spartyfanaa
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by spartyfanaa »

hudson wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:11 pm
spartyfanaa wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:23 am Hello Bogleheads -

Early retiree, 53; cash/cash equivalents until I reach 59.5;AA is 60/40; DIY investor, index funds

About 30% of my bond allocation is in TIPS (SWRSX) held in my T-IRA. The remainder is in VG Total Bond and a broad Muni Bond fund in taxable. I recently had a free consultation with my Schwab AM. He suggested that I move about 1/2 of SWRSX into a S-Term TIPS fund like VTIP. His reasoning was the short-term bond fund was better correlated to inflation and some exposure to shorter duration TIPS may be more beneficial than the longer duration SWRSX TIPS fund. I won't withdraw funds from my T-IRA for many years. I'm wondering if having a shorter duration TIPS fund makes sense if I don't intend to use the $ in the fund for several years? In other words, should the duration of the TIPS fund match my need for the $?

Two questions:
1. Is 30% allocation to TIPS reasonable for my age/stage in life? Schwab AM said it's reasonable.. maybe a little on the high side but not problematic.
2. What are your thoughts about staying in SWRSX or moving a portion of it to VTIP (shorter duration TIPS)

As always, thanks for your input.
I like SWRSX with an almost 8 year duration over short TIPS. It matches your duration better.
I would not sell SWRSX; I'd hold it. You are already in. I would stay.
I can't think of a reason to own short TIPS over longer TIPS.
Duration match? I vote yes.

Thanks Hudson. I believe the Schwab rep may have advised buying the short term TIPS fund as a play against expected rising interest rates. I think he mentioned that short-term TIPS are less sensitive to interest rate increases than SWRSX (longer duration).
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by hudson »

spartyfanaa,

I'm sure that advisor is doing his best at what he's trained to do.
I disregard interest rate predictions when making decisions.
Have you read anything by W. Bernstein or Larry Swedroe?
vineviz isn't contributing anymore, but his posts are worth a look.
Topic Author
spartyfanaa
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by spartyfanaa »

hudson wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:20 pm spartyfanaa,

I'm sure that advisor is doing his best at what he's trained to do.
I disregard interest rate predictions when making decisions.
Have you read anything by W. Bernstein or Larry Swedroe?
vineviz isn't contributing anymore, but his posts are worth a look.
Thanks Hudson. I have seen some of Vineviz's posts. He has some valuable insights. I have heard of Bernstein and Swedroe but haven't read a lot of their stuff. I will look into both of them. Do you think a 30% allocation to TIPS is appropriate in the fixed income portion of my portfolio? Thanks for your responses.
hudson
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by hudson »

spartyfanaa,

30% TIPS....I think that it's a good choice. I like that fund. I also like Pimco's long TIPS, LTPZ.
I would not move from the fund you're in.

I'm not a great expert or optimal portfolio advisor.
If I held an average duration 8 year TIPS fund, I would be happy. I would likely hold it until the cows came home.
Centexbob
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by Centexbob »

hudson wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:20 pm spartyfanaa,

I'm sure that advisor is doing his best at what he's trained to do.
I disregard interest rate predictions when making decisions.
Have you read anything by W. Bernstein or Larry Swedroe?
vineviz isn't contributing anymore, but his posts are worth a look.
Since you mention William Bernstein, he has (by my recollection) recommended almost exclusively investing in short-term TIPS for that part of a portfolio. Don't have any of his books around anymore so I can't point to a specific statement, but I think I'm right about this. I believe the reason given was less interest-rate risk with short-term, but I'm going from memory here. Anyone else recall this?
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by Northern Flicker »

spartyfanaa wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:11 pm
chrisdds98 wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:54 pm vtip duration is very short duration, 2.5 years or so. personally, i would consider it a cash equivalent.

I am an early retiree as well and see inflation as a bigger risk to my hopefully very long retirement than deflation so I'm half SCHP (intermediate TIPS).
I agree that Short Term TIPS appear to be cash equivalent.
VTAPX (short TIPS) has had a drawdown of about 3.4%. It likely would have had a steeper drawdown in 2008 had it existed at the time.
exodusNH
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by exodusNH »

MIretired wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:22 pm I've heard short tips follow cpi better from elsewhere, also. But don't recall why. Maybe less interest rate noise? Maybe some other reason.
I use tips as cpi adjusted emergency fund, and also cash for the future. It's always real valued cash, although a little correlated to equity returns.
Notwithstanding the neg real composite return beneath cpi current value.
The shorter duration means they respond more quickly, both down and up.
Derpalator
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by Derpalator »

Centexbob wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:20 pm
hudson wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:20 pm spartyfanaa,

I'm sure that advisor is doing his best at what he's trained to do.
I disregard interest rate predictions when making decisions.
Have you read anything by W. Bernstein or Larry Swedroe?
vineviz isn't contributing anymore, but his posts are worth a look.
Since you mention William Bernstein, he has (by my recollection) recommended almost exclusively investing in short-term TIPS for that part of a portfolio. Don't have any of his books around anymore so I can't point to a specific statement, but I think I'm right about this. I believe the reason given was less interest-rate risk with short-term, but I'm going from memory here. Anyone else recall this?
Bernstein is always short term fixed income in his recommendations, except when discussing LMP where he advocates TIPs bond ladder.
hudson
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by hudson »

Bill Bernstein contribution April 2020:
viewtopic.php?p=5160087#p5160087
MIretired
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by MIretired »

exodusNH wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 12:07 am
MIretired wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:22 pm I've heard short tips follow cpi better from elsewhere, also. But don't recall why. Maybe less interest rate noise? Maybe some other reason.
I use tips as cpi adjusted emergency fund, and also cash for the future. It's always real valued cash, although a little correlated to equity returns.
Notwithstanding the neg real composite return beneath cpi current value.
The shorter duration means they respond more quickly, both down and up.
True. They 'roll-over' quicker.
But add Fed fiddling up or down on overnight rates ( not regarding the also QE of longer bonds), and there is extra volatility in the short bonds. I know it can't be timed.
But it makes me want to throw out st bnds and sub cash and IM bnds for it.
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galeno
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by galeno »

We use Vanguard's TRF 2020 as our port's benchmark.
Leif wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 4:57 pm I use target date funds for "reasonableness" of my TIPS AA. Vanguard retirement 2020 (since you are retired) is around 10% of portfolio in short term TIPS. They have an allocation approx. 50/50. So that makes the TIPS around 20% of fixed income.

I have around 25% of my fixed income in TIPS funds. I use a combination of short and intermediate term TIPS. When my CD comes due, in my retirement account, I'm planning to move it to VTIP.
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spartyfanaa
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by spartyfanaa »

galeno wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:24 am We use Vanguard's TRF 2020 as our port's benchmark.
Leif wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 4:57 pm I use target date funds for "reasonableness" of my TIPS AA. Vanguard retirement 2020 (since you are retired) is around 10% of portfolio in short term TIPS. They have an allocation approx. 50/50. So that makes the TIPS around 20% of fixed income.

I have around 25% of my fixed income in TIPS funds. I use a combination of short and intermediate term TIPS. When my CD comes due, in my retirement account, I'm planning to move it to VTIP.
Interesting. This would definitely keep things simple. The TF 2020 is about 46% in equities and progresses to an even more conservative AA over the next 5 years. I wonder if that's too conservative for an early retiree like me at age 53. Preserving capital with some growth is the priority... not interested in maximizing growth at this point.
Northern Flicker
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by Northern Flicker »

I believe that Vanguard's position is that a properly constructed portfolio of stocks and nominal bonds protects against inflation in the medium and long term, but may not track inflation well in the short term as changes in inflation expectations and changes in interest rates work their way through capital markets. Thus, including a short term TIPS fund in a portfolio provides a good source of liquidity in the short term when inflation and interest rates are more volatile.
Centexbob
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by Centexbob »

I keep reading here about TIPS having negative yields, but Morningstar shows TTM yield for VTAPX (short-term TIPS fund) at 3.41% and shows total return at 5.26% YTD, 4.97% for 2020, and 4.85% for 2019. Can someone please explain this apparent disconnect to me?
dbr
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by dbr »

Centexbob wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 2:36 am I keep reading here about TIPS having negative yields, but Morningstar shows TTM yield for VTAPX (short-term TIPS fund) at 3.41% and shows total return at 5.26% YTD, 4.97% for 2020, and 4.85% for 2019. Can someone please explain this apparent disconnect to me?
Yes, some brokers such as Vanguard are publishing the real yield and others what you get with the inflation increment. At current high inflation the difference could be 5%-6%. SEC real yield plus inflation adjustment is forward looking.

Return is a different issue still as return also includes any gains or losses from NAV changes, backward looking.
SimpleLife_fatfe
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by SimpleLife_fatfe »

In this environment, with a hot CPI, I'm wondering if 'some' exposure to a TIP (ex: QCILPX - CREF Inflation-Linked Bond Account) might be a better place to park vs a Money Market (Capital Preservation/Waiting for a better play)?
Centexbob
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by Centexbob »

dbr wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:58 am
Centexbob wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 2:36 am I keep reading here about TIPS having negative yields, but Morningstar shows TTM yield for VTAPX (short-term TIPS fund) at 3.41% and shows total return at 5.26% YTD, 4.97% for 2020, and 4.85% for 2019. Can someone please explain this apparent disconnect to me?
Yes, some brokers such as Vanguard are publishing the real yield and others what you get with the inflation increment. At current high inflation the difference could be 5%-6%. SEC real yield plus inflation adjustment is forward looking.

Return is a different issue still as return also includes any gains or losses from NAV changes, backward looking.
VTAPX looks to me like a good place to park some money for a while, especially since I am doubtful that the inflation we're currently seeing will return to previous long-term level any time real soon (i.e. next year or two).
DesertInvestor
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by DesertInvestor »

dbr wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:42 pm The argument that protection from inflation is measured by how well the investment correlates with inflation is baloney.

All TIPS are compensated for inflation exactly, meaning there is no inflation risk in the holding at any duration.

In addition to changes in real value due to inflation (which TIPS don't have) the value of the investment can change due to duration risk, the fact that the market value of the bond changes when real interest rates change. A change in real interest rates is not inflation and does not defeat the fact that the investment is compensated for inflation. If a person has to actually see that the value in nominal dollars goes up exactly with inflation to believe that the investment is protected from inflation, then that person needs to hold short TIPS, or even better I bonds, but most people don't need to see that to understand what they have.

Whether or not a person can tolerate duration risk depends on the investor. There are incentives to have duration risk, such as the fact that the expected return is usually more and in order to match duration to liability. Currently the real yields for 5 year to 30 year TIPS range from -1.76% to -.48%, so the duration premium is only 1.28%, which is very little. That would be a reason to be short in TIPS now. A person holding an investment for a short time would hold a short duration, but everyone knows that already.
Stupid question, but liability matching with respect to a fund avg duration would mean you need the money in 6 years if lets say you have an intermediate term TIPS fund (or whatever the avg duration is)?
dbr
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by dbr »

DesertInvestor wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 1:36 pm
dbr wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:42 pm The argument that protection from inflation is measured by how well the investment correlates with inflation is baloney.

All TIPS are compensated for inflation exactly, meaning there is no inflation risk in the holding at any duration.

In addition to changes in real value due to inflation (which TIPS don't have) the value of the investment can change due to duration risk, the fact that the market value of the bond changes when real interest rates change. A change in real interest rates is not inflation and does not defeat the fact that the investment is compensated for inflation. If a person has to actually see that the value in nominal dollars goes up exactly with inflation to believe that the investment is protected from inflation, then that person needs to hold short TIPS, or even better I bonds, but most people don't need to see that to understand what they have.

Whether or not a person can tolerate duration risk depends on the investor. There are incentives to have duration risk, such as the fact that the expected return is usually more and in order to match duration to liability. Currently the real yields for 5 year to 30 year TIPS range from -1.76% to -.48%, so the duration premium is only 1.28%, which is very little. That would be a reason to be short in TIPS now. A person holding an investment for a short time would hold a short duration, but everyone knows that already.
Stupid question, but liability matching with respect to a fund avg duration would mean you need the money in 6 years if lets say you have an intermediate term TIPS fund (or whatever the avg duration is)?
You can research some of the better nuanced presentations of the idea, which mine is not. However, if you need money six years from now you would buy bonds that mature six years from now. A fund with six year duration still has six year duration one year before you want your money and would not be a match. Usually people are really talking about wanting to take money continuously over an extended period of time, so it probably works to have bonds of a range of durations or an average duration somewhere in the middle of the whole time span. I think intermediate bonds are a reasonable choice for long term continuous investing even though probably in theory longer duration would be a better match,

A different kind of illuststration is the TIPS ladder in which a specific bond is held to mature each year as needed. Some of the bonds are due very soon and others later. This is tricky to do because TIPS don't exist in enough different issue dates to create a ladder of annual maturities.
DesertInvestor
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Re: TIPS Allocation and Duration

Post by DesertInvestor »

My parents are retired and I manage their portfolio through Vanguard, so I’m starting to investigate these things. Thank you.
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