Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Have a question about your personal investments? No matter how simple or complex, you can ask it here.
Post Reply
Topic Author
bb201
Posts: 39
Joined: Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:34 pm

Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by bb201 »

I am about 50/50 stock to bonds. All of my bonds are in LTT's. My plan was to hold the LTT's until stocks really crash hard and then sell a lot of the bonds and buy the Total Stock Mkt. A lot of the bonds are in IRA's so I was planning on selling those bonds and buying stocks again when the stock market reaches a new all time high. However, I am getting killed with the bonds and it seems like interest rates can only go up from here so I will get killed with the LLT's. I am thinking on selling the LTT's and buying short term or inter term treasuries. Any suggestions?
Triple digit golfer
Posts: 7700
Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Market timing is never a good idea.

If you are holding them because you think they'll go up when stocks crash, why are you surprised that the opposite is happening while stocks are on a tear?

Regardless, holding bonds with a 20 or so year duration and worried about short term returns is not a good idea either.

Look at your portfolio as a whole.
mhalley
Posts: 8973
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2007 6:02 am

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by mhalley »

Sounds like you have a market timing mentality. You need to cultivate instead about a stay the course mentality, and decide what your asset allocation should be based on that.
User avatar
jason2459
Posts: 989
Joined: Wed May 06, 2020 7:59 pm

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by jason2459 »

Sounds like a good time to buy more of them.
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
User avatar
anon_investor
Posts: 6922
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:43 pm

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by anon_investor »

OP, have you been rebalancing to maintain your AA?
z3r0c00l
Posts: 2391
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2012 11:43 am
Location: NYC

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by z3r0c00l »

bb201 wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:30 pm I was planning on selling those bonds and buying stocks again when the stock market reaches a new all time high.
Wait you want to buy stocks after they reach an all-time high? Doesn't this scheme entail waiting for stocks to crash then selling bonds to buy them at a discount?

Anyway, it doesn't matter too much because what you are trying to do is not possible. If you didn't know before hand, now you do, long term bonds are very volatile. Almost as much as stocks. And you can't time the market or even know if it will ever drop below present levels again. Since stocks go up most of the time, about 2/3rds of the time, odds are they won't go down again.

I think 50/50 stocks/bonds is an interesting mix but not necessarily a bad one. If you had a plan here, no point in selling after long term bonds dropped a bit. Hopefully you had them all last year and made some money? Or did you buy the long term bonds only after they had an incredible run?

By the way LTT mutual funds are paying about 1.7% right now with considerable volatility, you can get the same from I bonds for no volatility at all.
Last edited by z3r0c00l on Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:53 pm, edited 3 times in total.
100% Global Stocks / Ibond Emergency Fund
learningtime
Posts: 63
Joined: Sat Apr 09, 2011 4:13 pm

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by learningtime »

It's difficult to predict what long treasuries will do when equity markets go up. When the fed cuts rates, equities benefit. When equity markets go up, and rates inch up, long bonds will take a hit.

If you hold treasuries as a placeholder for some cash that will allow you to inch into equity markets, short term treasuries/munis may be better. Long bonds are generally workable only if they are part of your long term asset allocation.
User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 9829
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by whodidntante »

When you buy doom insurance, sometimes the doom never shows up.
thenextguy
Posts: 520
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:58 am

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by thenextguy »

The good news is your stocks have been killing it. That's how it's supposed to work.
User avatar
Wiggums
Posts: 3857
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:02 am

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by Wiggums »

You could create a similar hedge using money market funds, certificates of deposits (CDs) or online savings accounts. Those places don’t yield much either, but they also don’t have nearly as much interest rate risk.

Then again you wouldn’t benefit as much as you would if bond yields were to contract further, but that’s the price you pay for safety. (It’s hard to believe rates could continue to fall, but they’re negative in a number of developed markets around the globe.)

Anything beyond these safe investment vehicles and you’re introducing additional risks to your portfolio. More risk isn’t necessarily always bad, but it is something you have to think about when venturing outside your comfort zone.

Dividend-paying stocks or corporate bonds or high-yield or alternative investments could offer you more yield right now, but those investments have many different characteristics than high-quality bonds.

There are no easy answers in the low-rate world we’re living in.

You can either earn less income to better protect your capital or earn more income to accept more risk in your portfolio.
pkcrafter
Posts: 14907
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 12:19 pm
Location: CA
Contact:

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by pkcrafter »

bb201, can you provide the names and tickers of the bond funds you are holding now.
I am about 50/50 stock to bonds. All of my bonds are in LTT's. My plan was to hold the LTT's until stocks really crash hard and then sell a lot of the bonds and buy the Total Stock Mkt.
A lot of the bonds are in IRA's so I was planning on selling those bonds and buying stocks again when the stock market reaches a new all time high.
These both can't be right. Which do you want to do?

Paul
Last edited by pkcrafter on Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
pseudoiterative
Posts: 223
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:11 am
Location: australia

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by pseudoiterative »

bb201 wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:30 pm I am getting killed with the bonds and it seems like interest rates can only go up from here so I will get killed with the LLT's.
I basically agree that long term bonds do not seem to be a very attractive asset class compared to how they have performed during the past 35 year (and counting) bull market for bonds. Holding them no longer provides any real income, they have increased correlation with equities which reduces their ability to serve as a depression hedge. Then if you expect interest rates are more likely to increase rather than decrease in future then there's another expected loss from holding bonds, particularly longer duration bonds.

But what to do instead? Some discussion & ideas: Inker's article emphasises that tail hedge strategies may be difficult to implement manually:
Investing in tail hedge strategies requires substantial discipline. Properly structured tail hedges pay off in the scariest of times – either extreme economic duress or some period of extreme geopolitical uncertainty. Like any good rebalancing strategy, investors should be moving out of strongly performing tail hedges and into beaten-down risk assets. This requires selling those tail hedges at the point of maximum uncertainty, which is difficult to do to say the least. Having a firm plan in place before the extreme event occurs is critical to using tail hedges to maximum effectiveness. Rebalancing from tail hedges in times of crisis really matters. The negative carry peculiar to most tail hedges prevents them from being a “set it and forget it” type of strategy[2]. The depression hedge that has provided the best success for GMO (excluding government bonds) has been our Tactical Opportunities Strategy, which is long high quality stocks (which tend to do well in bad economic times; these companies are well insulated from bankruptcy) and short low quality stocks (or, at times, the market). Again, rebalancing can be critical.

[...]

[2] A simple put-buying strategy starting with $100 in 1986 would have resulted in remaining capital today of about $5. Ouch.
pseudoiterative
Posts: 223
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:11 am
Location: australia

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by pseudoiterative »

My approach is:
  • 90% equities
  • 10% low duration investment grade corporate debt (VCSH)
  • (in the immediate term at least) keep working part time in corporate job to provide reliable stream of cashflow as hedge
I don't understand fixed income well enough to know how silly the corporate debt allocation is. Corporate debt probably has a higher degree of correlation with the stock market compared with alternative fixed income asset classes, so what I am doing may not be very clever.
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 9113
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by watchnerd »

I’ve held LTT for a few years now and am pleased with how they behave in my port (see sig).

But if you’re holding them for risk parity matching or deflation protection purposes, it’s not necessary to hold a 50% allocation.

Even heavy on LTT ports like the Permanent Portfolio (25% LTT) and All Weather (40% LTT) don’t go that high.

LTT have significant duration risk — because of this i barbell with shorter bonds to lower the average effective duration down to 6.3.

FWIW, over the past few weeks I’ve been adjusting out of stocks and into LTT — selling high, buying low.
Last edited by watchnerd on Sat Feb 20, 2021 9:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
60% Global Market Stocks (VT,FM) | 38% Global Market Bonds | 2% crypto & securitized gold || LMP TIPS/STRIPS || RSU + ESPP
FIREyourself
Posts: 42
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:58 pm

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by FIREyourself »

bb201 wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:30 pm I am thinking on selling the LTT's and buying short term or inter term treasuries. Any suggestions?
I would cut your losses and switch to a total bond market fund in accordance with your risk tolerance. Chalk up the loss as the price paid for complicating your portfolio unnecessarily.
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 9113
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by watchnerd »

bb201 wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:30 pm I am about 50/50 stock to bonds. All of my bonds are in LTT's. My plan was to hold the LTT's until stocks really crash hard and then sell a lot of the bonds and buy the Total Stock Mkt. A lot of the bonds are in IRA's so I was planning on selling those bonds and buying stocks again when the stock market reaches a new all time high. However, I am getting killed with the bonds and it seems like interest rates can only go up from here so I will get killed with the LLT's. I am thinking on selling the LTT's and buying short term or inter term treasuries. Any suggestions?
Didn't you mean:

"buying bonds again when the stock market reaches a new all time high"?

I have no idea when stocks will reach an all time high, but I've been rebalancing out of stocks (selling high) and buying LTT bonds (buying low) after the recent run-up, per my IPS rules.
60% Global Market Stocks (VT,FM) | 38% Global Market Bonds | 2% crypto & securitized gold || LMP TIPS/STRIPS || RSU + ESPP
bugleheadd
Posts: 695
Joined: Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:25 am

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by bugleheadd »

Why not rebalance between stocks and bonds to maintain 50/50 allocation ?
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 9113
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by watchnerd »

learningtime wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:45 pm Long bonds are generally workable only if they are part of your long term asset allocation.
The hint is in the name 'long'. ;)
60% Global Market Stocks (VT,FM) | 38% Global Market Bonds | 2% crypto & securitized gold || LMP TIPS/STRIPS || RSU + ESPP
User avatar
nisiprius
Advisory Board
Posts: 43738
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:33 am
Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by nisiprius »

You don't state exactly what form your long-term treasurys are in.

If you look at the Vanguard Long-term Treasury Fund, VUSTX you will see that Vanguard classifies them as "risk potential 3"

Image

and if you click on the maroon line below the diagram, it pops up an explanation:
Moderate funds Risk level 3
Vanguard funds classified as moderate are subject to a moderate degree of fluctuation in share prices. In general, such funds may be appropriate for investors who have a relatively long-term investment horizon (more than 5 years).
They are strongly suggesting that investors should not buy this fund if they are planning to hold it for less than five years.

This fund, in fact, has averaged 5.94% annual return over the last five years. So I don't understand why you say you are "getting killed."

Image

I took a longer look over a data set covering 7/1986 - 9/2020, more than thirty-four years. Over this period of time, there were 352 overlapping 60-month time periods, and I can tell you that

1) VUSTX did not lose money in any of those five-year time periods, not a single one;

2) The worst five-year performance was 8/2012 - 7/2017, and here is how it did over that time period:

Source

Image

In the worst five-year period in its 34-year history, it made $928 on a $10,000 investment which works out to an average return of 1.79%.

Now, I do not personally like long-term bonds. This is a topic of spirited discussion on the forum. People who just want bonds to ballast their portfolio and dilute the risk of stocks generally use an intermediate-term fund like Vanguard Total Bond. Long-term bonds have had a negative correlation with stocks that began about twenty years ago, and those using long-term bonds generally are expecting that negative correlation to persist, and hope to exploit it, not just to dilute stock risk, but to actively erase or cancel it. That's a different topic.

My point is that I don't see how you could be "getting killed" if you are using something similar to a long-term-treasury fund and holding it for the five-year period Vanguard says is suitable. (Even five years seems short to me, since the fund has an 18-year duration and the duration is the "fairly safe holding period" for bonds and bond funds).
Last edited by nisiprius on Sat Feb 20, 2021 8:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
User avatar
Beensabu
Posts: 840
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by Beensabu »

bb201 wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:30 pm I am about 50/50 stock to bonds. All of my bonds are in LTT's. My plan was to hold the LTT's until stocks really crash hard and then sell a lot of the bonds and buy the Total Stock Mkt.
This is still a viable plan. Who knows when you'll get to execute it though.
A lot of the bonds are in IRA's so I was planning on selling those bonds and buying stocks again when the stock market reaches a new all time high.
No. You mean when you determine stocks are great deal, or when your stocks:bonds allocation is out of whack. Make a rule. Write it down. Follow the rule.
However, I am getting killed with the bonds
What are you talking about? You ain't seen nothing yet.
and it seems like interest rates can only go up from here so I will get killed with the LLT's.
That is entirely possible. Did you not consider this possibility previously?
I am thinking on selling the LTT's and buying short term or inter term treasuries. Any suggestions?
If you insist on viewing your portfolio allocations separately rather than as a whole, then your current mix is not for you.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next."
User avatar
Wiggums
Posts: 3857
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:02 am

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by Wiggums »

nisiprius wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 8:31 pm You don't state exactly what form your long-term treasurys are in.

If you look at the Vanguard Long-term Treasury Fund, VUSTX you will see that Vanguard classifies them as "risk potential 3"

Image

and if you click on the maroon line below the diagram, it pops up an explanation:
Moderate funds Risk level 3
Vanguard funds classified as moderate are subject to a moderate degree of fluctuation in share prices. In general, such funds may be appropriate for investors who have a relatively long-term investment horizon (more than 5 years).
They are strongly suggesting that investors should not buy this fund if they are planning to hold it for less than five years.

This fund, in fact, has averaged 5.94% annual return over the last five years. So I don't understand why you say you are "getting killed."

Image

I took a longer look over a data set covering 7/1986 - 9/2020, more than thirty-four years. Over this period of time, there were 352 overlapping 60-month time periods, and I can tell you that

1) VUSTX did not lose money in any of those five-year time periods, not a single one;

2) The worst five-year performance was 8/2012 - 7/2017, and here is how it did over that time period:

Source

Image

In the worst five-year period in its 34-year history, it made $928 on a $10,000 investment which works out to an average return of 1.79%.

Now, I do not personally like long-term bonds. This is a topic of spirited discussion on the forum. People who just want bonds to ballast their portfolio and dilute the risk of stocks generally use an intermediate-term fund like Vanguard Total Bond. Long-term bonds have had a negative correlation with stocks that began about twenty years ago, and those using long-term bonds generally are expecting that negative correlation to persist, and hope to exploit it, not just to dilute stock risk, but to actively erase or cancel it. That's a different topic.

My point is that I don't see how you could be "getting killed" if you are using something similar to a long-term-treasury fund and holding it for the five-year period Vanguard says is suitable. (Even five years seems short to me, since the fund has an 18-year duration and the duration is the "fairly safe holding period" for bonds and bond funds).
+1

Thanks Nisiprius.

Very helpful explanation as always
000
Posts: 4952
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by 000 »

If your whole portfolio is in LTT and the US stock market, you are highly exposed to a US rising rates / inflation scenario.

No international stocks? Or Gold/commodities?
slicendice
Posts: 100
Joined: Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:08 am

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by slicendice »

What is your time horizon? if it is 20+ years, then stay the course and rebalance when appropriate. I think the stock percentage does seem to be low for such a long time horizon. If your time horizon is less than 20 years add short or intermediate term bonds to bring the overall average duration of the portfolio just under your time horizon.
annu
Posts: 1039
Joined: Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:55 pm

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by annu »

I feel the pain, I have https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutua ... /31635V232, fidelity version of Long term treasury.

The only change I am king moving forward increasing my allocation to BND(total bond) and keep LTT same. No point selling at loss, as yield has gone up.
Impatience
Posts: 388
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:15 pm

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by Impatience »

My suggestion is to check your portfolio less often.
averagedude
Posts: 1562
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 3:41 pm

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by averagedude »

You may be getting killed will LTT at the present moment, but haven't you benefited over the last 4 decades with this holding? A 9.4% compound rate of return with a maximum drawdown of only 17% over the last 40 years sounds pretty good to me. A $10,000 investment in 1981 would be worth over $350,000 today. You would have achieved a higher sharpe ratio with long term treasuries over this time period than you would with a total US stock market investment. Just saying.
000
Posts: 4952
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by 000 »

averagedude wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:21 pm You may be getting killed will LTT at the present moment, but haven't you benefited over the last 4 decades with this holding? A 9.4% compound rate of return with a maximum drawdown of only 17% over the last 40 years sounds pretty good to me. A $10,000 investment in 1981 would be worth over $350,000 today. You would have achieved a higher sharpe ratio with long term treasuries over this time period than you would with a total US stock market investment. Just saying.
Maybe OP isn't sixty years old...
jpmorganfunds
Posts: 296
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2007 12:56 am

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by jpmorganfunds »

It's only just beginning.

Image
averagedude
Posts: 1562
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 3:41 pm

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by averagedude »

000 wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:23 pm
averagedude wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:21 pm You may be getting killed will LTT at the present moment, but haven't you benefited over the last 4 decades with this holding? A 9.4% compound rate of return with a maximum drawdown of only 17% over the last 40 years sounds pretty good to me. A $10,000 investment in 1981 would be worth over $350,000 today. You would have achieved a higher sharpe ratio with long term treasuries over this time period than you would with a total US stock market investment. Just saying.
Maybe OP isn't sixty years old...
Very true, but my point is that any investment that has had a 40 year annualized rate of return of 9%, a 10% drawdown shouldn't be a major concern to an investor. The total stock market has only compounded 11% during this time, but an investor would had suffered a 40% drawdown twice during this same time period. I'm just playing devil's advocate, as I believe long term treasuries are a risky asset class. Full disclosure, the only long term bonds I have are what is in the total bond index. I don't recommend them, especially when yields are low and their is a good chance that the national debt will more likely be paid by bondholders instead of taxpayers, like we witnessed from 1940 to 1980. Speaking from a real rate of return perspective, long term government bonds experienced a 60% drawdown that lasted almost 50 years according to Bloomberg data. Their is no free lunch in long term treasuries, as you are taking on more risk for potential higher returns.
Marseille07
Posts: 4078
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 1:41 pm

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by Marseille07 »

jpmorganfunds wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:43 pm It's only just beginning.

Image
I wonder what fundamentally changed. I think we've hit the bottom, but whether it'll start going back up or stay sideways is unknown.
User avatar
dmcmahon
Posts: 2777
Joined: Fri Mar 21, 2008 10:29 pm

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by dmcmahon »

averagedude wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 11:03 pm
000 wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:23 pm
averagedude wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:21 pm You may be getting killed will LTT at the present moment, but haven't you benefited over the last 4 decades with this holding? A 9.4% compound rate of return with a maximum drawdown of only 17% over the last 40 years sounds pretty good to me. A $10,000 investment in 1981 would be worth over $350,000 today. You would have achieved a higher sharpe ratio with long term treasuries over this time period than you would with a total US stock market investment. Just saying.
Maybe OP isn't sixty years old...
Very true, but my point is that any investment that has had a 40 year annualized rate of return of 9%, a 10% drawdown shouldn't be a major concern to an investor. The total stock market has only compounded 11% during this time, but an investor would had suffered a 40% drawdown twice during this same time period. I'm just playing devil's advocate, as I believe long term treasuries are a risky asset class. Full disclosure, the only long term bonds I have are what is in the total bond index. I don't recommend them, especially when yields are low and their is a good chance that the national debt will more likely be paid by bondholders instead of taxpayers, like we witnessed from 1940 to 1980. Speaking from a real rate of return perspective, long term government bonds experienced a 60% drawdown that lasted almost 50 years according to Bloomberg data. Their is no free lunch in long term treasuries, as you are taking on more risk for potential higher returns.
Prospective returns are nowhere near as good. At least with equities you can hope for some return in exchange for the drawdowns. Didn’t Buffett joking refer to bonds as offering “return-free risk”?
TBillT
Posts: 864
Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2011 1:43 pm

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by TBillT »

I did not have a chance to review all of the above feedback, but the expert on Long Term Bonds is economist A. Gary Shilling.

I am not totally up-to-date on Shilling's latest thinking, but one month ago when long term rates started ticking back up. he predicted that was temporary knee-jerk.

Unless Shilling has recently changed his mind, I suspect he is a buyer here. I have some small amounts and I am not sweating it.

Of course it is anti-Boglehead to listen to a market predicter, but you can't do much better than Shilling who manages a lot of peoples money quite well over the decades.
Last edited by TBillT on Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
TBillT
Posts: 864
Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2011 1:43 pm

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by TBillT »

duplicate
Last edited by TBillT on Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Marseille07
Posts: 4078
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 1:41 pm

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by Marseille07 »

Yields can certainly go sideways but barring negative yields, there just isn't much downside but a lot of upside. I would not like the risk/reward here.
Mofire
Posts: 46
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:28 am

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by Mofire »

LTT is a risky holding. I’d move to shorter durations.
Outer Marker
Posts: 1757
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2009 8:01 am

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by Outer Marker »

bb201 wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:30 pm I am about 50/50 stock to bonds. All of my bonds are in LTT's. My plan was to hold the LTT's until stocks really crash hard and then sell a lot of the bonds and buy the Total Stock Mkt. .... Any suggestions?
What did you do last March? That would have been the time . . .

I prefer to take all my risk on the equity side, and keep bonds short and high quality.
User avatar
Beensabu
Posts: 840
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: Help, getting killed with long term treasuries

Post by Beensabu »

bb201 wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:30 pm I am thinking on selling the LTT's and buying short term or inter term treasuries. Any suggestions?
My apologies for my previous response. I was unfairly mentally putting you in the category of folks who went gaga for long term treasuries last summer without thinking through what they were actually doing.

I took a quick look at your previous posts, and I think it would be helpful if you let people know your age or perhaps start a new post in the Personal Investments forum using this format: Asking Portfolio Questions. The responses that you receive if you do that will be quite different and far more tailored to your situation than what you have gotten so far.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next."
Post Reply