1258% YTD

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Firemenot
Posts: 479
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:48 pm

Re: 1258% YTD

Post by Firemenot »

k1982 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 3:17 pm
1789 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 3:07 pm
k1982 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 2:57 pm
1789 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 12:40 pm
k1982 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:02 am I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that :moneybag if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

How do you stop yourself?
I don't want to gamble. I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far
maybe the last sentence is a good enough reason :oops:

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!
I am with you. 5-10% is meaningless. If i am gambling it better worth my time. I can only provide some points here.

Lets say i have a portfolio of 200k total and i see that NIKOLA is the stock i want to buy due to its past performace, as it skyrocketed along with others. Assume i bought it two days ago and now my portfolio decreased to 120k from 200k. That is like losing more annual income for an average household in just two days. The reason is will you buy Nicola stock today or not? I could also buy Zoom two days ago and see where i would sit now , similar loss.

Just look at your financial goals and see if you can reach your goals by assuming 5-6% returns (market returns). If so, what will having more money add to your life? I am almost certain nothing! If you cant reach your financial goals with average expected market returns then you will throw the dice and decide if you want to gamble or adjust your lifestyle (cuttings expenses, increasing savings etc..)

Remember in a stock trading there will be always losers and winners, never assume you will be the winnner!
+1
you are 100% correct. I can reach my financial goal before I retire. all I need is nominal returns of 6-7% in the next 25-30 years.
btw, i'm 38 years old and 100% VFIAX

However, with single stocks I can ruin myself financially and have nothing saved for retirement.

I want the peace of mind when I turn 65 I can relax and enjoy life.
I understand that it is very tempting but remember more money doesn't mean much if you can reach your goals already. We are also close to your age ~36 yr olds and all in VTSAX/VFIAX. You cant go wrong with your portfolio. Stay positive and please remember investing is not a competition. It is about reaching your own goals. Lots of people gambling with stocks have no idea how much money they need to reach their financial goals. They just want more money and sadly they get less money at the end because they lose big. Good luck.
haha thanks for the reality check
I'm a very competitive person so sometimes I treat this as a game (I like to keep score against other players) - very foolish on my part :oops:

I have to keeping telling myself I'm a Boglehead for stability, growth, and financial independence.

Thank you everyone for the kind replies and different perspectives.
Sometimes you just need a reality check from the wise/more experienced before you do something that can set you back years.
I’m sure you know this, but comparing yourself to other (I.e. your “score” versus theirs) is not a recipe for contentment. Any there will ALWAYS be someone richer to compare yourself against and come up short.
Streptococcus
Posts: 417
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2013 12:17 am

Re: 1258% YTD

Post by Streptococcus »

I opened 2 accounts on M1 for my wife and I and bought a several individual stocks, many of which are Chinese companies, including NIO.

They caught so much steam and more than triple in a few months that my wife, never interested about investing, started reading about it.

I always try to tell her that the real learning is when you lose, not when you win big :D

I think the M1 finance slice model and the app make up for a better experience than vanguard and is responsible for her renewed interest. Now she wants to learn about index investing while still playing with the slices.

That's fun money. We're up by about $20K to date. We could pull that money out but the fun would be over.
herbert_21
Posts: 63
Joined: Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:41 am

Re: 1258% YTD

Post by herbert_21 »

k1982 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:02 am I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that :moneybag if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

How do you stop yourself?
I don't want to gamble. I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far
maybe the last sentence is a good enough reason :oops:

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!
You'll find the type of "investment" in Reddit r/wallstreetbets, on YouTube at Stock Moe, if you consider Tesla and Bitcoin, check out @ChickenGeniusSingapore. He also talks a lot about the mindset for 10x gains. Or check Dave Lee on Investing.

The philosopher Sartre once said, if you ask someone a question, you already know what the answer will be. If you ask your question in a Bogleheadforum, you know what the answer will be.

I suggest to be honest with your risk tolerance and your goals. Can you meet your goals with 10% on an index fund? Have you done the math? Are you able to keep a stock with 50% loss? What about 80% drop? The example with bitcoin is an excellent one. It's the most volatile thing you can think of. I'm not saying you shouldn't invest in Bitcoin. But what's the plan, DCA in when BTC is at 20k?
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ruralavalon
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Location: Illinois

Re: 1258% YTD

Post by ruralavalon »

k1982 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:02 am I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that :moneybag if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

How do you stop yourself?
I don't want to gamble. I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far
maybe the last sentence is a good enough reason :oops:

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!
November 16 it was announced that Tesla will be added to the S&P 500 index, it's shares are up 39% since then.

Yahoo had a bigger boost when added to the S&P 500 index in 1999. But it didn't last. Yahoo lost 86% in 2000, and lost another 41% in 2001.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started
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sergeant
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Location: The Golden State

Re: 1258% YTD

Post by sergeant »

Go all in! Let us know what moves you make close to real time. Good luck, seriously.
AA- 20+ Years of Expenses Fixed Income/The remainder in Equities.
Topic Author
k1982
Posts: 311
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:36 am

Re: 1258% YTD

Post by k1982 »

Streptococcus wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 3:59 pm I opened 2 accounts on M1 for my wife and I and bought a several individual stocks, many of which are Chinese companies, including NIO.

They caught so much steam and more than triple in a few months that my wife, never interested about investing, started reading about it.

I always try to tell her that the real learning is when you lose, not when you win big :D

I think the M1 finance slice model and the app make up for a better experience than vanguard and is responsible for her renewed interest. Now she wants to learn about index investing while still playing with the slices.

That's fun money. We're up by about $20K to date. We could pull that money out but the fun would be over.
ha, experience is everything in the game of life
when you fail multiple times that is when you learn the important lessons

I am also a believer that when you make easy money real quick in ruins you as a person ...
for example, I would rather someone give me 5 million instead of 5 billion.
I know crazy. right?
but I'm being serious too. I would appreciate life way more with 5 million - cause you still have to manage it and put it in the right places.
You have to be responsible with it.

however, with 5 billion I would live miserably; eventually, nothing would make me happy. Mentally, I would be a cruel person.
Topic Author
k1982
Posts: 311
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:36 am

Re: 1258% YTD

Post by k1982 »

ruralavalon wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 4:05 pm
k1982 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:02 am I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that :moneybag if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

How do you stop yourself?
I don't want to gamble. I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far
maybe the last sentence is a good enough reason :oops:

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!
November 16 it was announced that Tesla will be added to the S&P 500 index, it's shares are up 39% since then.

Yahoo had a bigger boost when added to the S&P 500 index in 1999. But it didn't last. Yahoo lost 86% in 2000, and lost another 41% in 2001.
whatever happened to those yahoo stocks if you owned them back in the days?
did you lose 100% of your money? or was it bought by someone else?
I never looked into it...
thanks for the reply in advance!
tesuzuki2002
Posts: 1165
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2015 12:40 pm

Re: 1258% YTD

Post by tesuzuki2002 »

k1982 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:02 am I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that :moneybag if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

How do you stop yourself?
I became a pretty avid Boglehead (buy and hold indexer) in about 2015 after about 5 years of making picks and trades and feeling like I was treading right around Market returns... and also spending a lot of time doing research... I eventually realized that no one knows nothing... And I started selling induvial stocks and consolidating and that is working and is really is gaining momentum.

HOWEVER, this year had been crazy and I agree there has been a lot of individual volatility lately. Even more so in the options markets, which I have been reading up on for several months now and made my first options trades last week. Kick me sideways if I didn't make over 200% in a week on 2 different trades..

I could see where this is addicting and one could go all in with a lot and lose a lot...

I am going to keep my base investing, but I am also pulling about 5% of my NW with start up some day trading. I don't need to make a lot of trades... But I will hold on them until I feel like I really have a good one and then execute it.

I mean I say go for it... it's gambling, but I would also considering it somewhat calculated risk..
herbert_21
Posts: 63
Joined: Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:41 am

Re: 1258% YTD

Post by herbert_21 »

While we're on the topic: All-In meme stocks

WSB Meme stocks overview 12/1
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets ... rview_121/
Mr.BB
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by Mr.BB »

Nothing wrong with taking some money and buying a stock. The question is have you maxed out your 401k /Roths..etc this year? Make sure you do that first. Whenever I get feeling like you do I always think about highway driving in heavy traffic. Your in the middle lane and then you notice a bunch of cars passing you in the left lane. You think "I should be in that lane I will be far ahead of everyone else". A few more cars go past you and then you realize all the value of getting in that lane earlier is now in front of you and the lane begins to slow and eventually stops; and the lane you were in is now far in front of you. Bottom line is....you are late to the party. If you were so sure about your stock pick(s) you should of been in there earlier this year or last.
Last edited by Mr.BB on Tue Dec 01, 2020 4:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."
BigMoneyNoWhammies
Posts: 300
Joined: Tue Jul 11, 2017 11:58 am

Re: 1258% YTD

Post by BigMoneyNoWhammies »

Samosa22 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:30 am The problem with strategies like "5% Play money" or "if it goes to zero it won't matter" is that they won't move the needle in your favor either. If you want substantial returns from your risky investments then the amount invested has to be enough to cause some pain if it goes south.
This is only true if you maintain that 5% of your total portfolio even when the play money allocation makes gains by selling off to maintain AA along the way, or if you contribute additional funds along the way to get it back up to that 5% when it is down. A 5% play money gambit can easily grow to enough that it changes other decision making. I have roughly 5% of my portfolio in a 50/50 UPRO/TMF HEDGEFUNDIE strategy. I don't plan on taking any of that $ off the table until it's a rather large amount, nor will I throw good $ after the bad by trying to boost it back up to its original % if it loses a ton. That's the whole point of the play money - to take a gamble with a small amount try and hit a big score that has amplified gains. If it does, great, you get to retire earlier than expected. If it goes to nothing or doesn't beat market returns, your original investment was so small that it doesn't adversely impact your retirement trajectory.
Topic Author
k1982
Posts: 311
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by k1982 »

BigMoneyNoWhammies wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 4:40 pm
Samosa22 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:30 am The problem with strategies like "5% Play money" or "if it goes to zero it won't matter" is that they won't move the needle in your favor either. If you want substantial returns from your risky investments then the amount invested has to be enough to cause some pain if it goes south.
This is only true if you maintain that 5% of your total portfolio even when the play money allocation makes gains by selling off to maintain AA along the way, or if you contribute additional funds along the way to get it back up to that 5% when it is down. A 5% play money gambit can easily grow to enough that it changes other decision making. I have roughly 5% of my portfolio in a 50/50 UPRO/TMF HEDGEFUNDIE strategy. I don't plan on taking any of that $ off the table until it's a rather large amount, nor will I throw good $ after the bad by trying to boost it back up to its original % if it loses a ton. That's the whole point of the play money - to take a gamble with a small amount try and hit a big score that has amplified gains. If it does, great, you get to retire earlier than expected. If it goes to nothing or doesn't beat market returns, your original investment was so small that it doesn't adversely impact your retirement trajectory.


This ONLY works if you control your emotions and do not go on tilt.
I know myself well enough that if I lost 5% of my play money on some random stock; I would then double down on another stock ...and keep going until broke.
It is self destructive behavior which many of us have, but won't admit to it.
I learned the hard way playing high stakes poker back in the days. and will never go back to that lifestyle again.
Mr.BB
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by Mr.BB »

k1982 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 4:58 pm
BigMoneyNoWhammies wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 4:40 pm
Samosa22 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:30 am The problem with strategies like "5% Play money" or "if it goes to zero it won't matter" is that they won't move the needle in your favor either. If you want substantial returns from your risky investments then the amount invested has to be enough to cause some pain if it goes south.
This is only true if you maintain that 5% of your total portfolio even when the play money allocation makes gains by selling off to maintain AA along the way, or if you contribute additional funds along the way to get it back up to that 5% when it is down. A 5% play money gambit can easily grow to enough that it changes other decision making. I have roughly 5% of my portfolio in a 50/50 UPRO/TMF HEDGEFUNDIE strategy. I don't plan on taking any of that $ off the table until it's a rather large amount, nor will I throw good $ after the bad by trying to boost it back up to its original % if it loses a ton. That's the whole point of the play money - to take a gamble with a small amount try and hit a big score that has amplified gains. If it does, great, you get to retire earlier than expected. If it goes to nothing or doesn't beat market returns, your original investment was so small that it doesn't adversely impact your retirement trajectory.


This ONLY works if you control your emotions and do not go on tilt.
I know myself well enough that if I lost 5% of my play money on some random stock; I would then double down on another stock ...and keep going until broke.
It is self destructive behavior which many of us have, but won't admit to it.
I learned the hard way playing high stakes poker back in the days. and will never go back to that lifestyle again.

So, if you know this your "normal behavior", why would you even go there? That's like an alcoholic going to a bar.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."
Mr.BB
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by Mr.BB »

k1982 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 4:58 pm
BigMoneyNoWhammies wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 4:40 pm
Samosa22 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:30 am The problem with strategies like "5% Play money" or "if it goes to zero it won't matter" is that they won't move the needle in your favor either. If you want substantial returns from your risky investments then the amount invested has to be enough to cause some pain if it goes south.
This is only true if you maintain that 5% of your total portfolio even when the play money allocation makes gains by selling off to maintain AA along the way, or if you contribute additional funds along the way to get it back up to that 5% when it is down. A 5% play money gambit can easily grow to enough that it changes other decision making. I have roughly 5% of my portfolio in a 50/50 UPRO/TMF HEDGEFUNDIE strategy. I don't plan on taking any of that $ off the table until it's a rather large amount, nor will I throw good $ after the bad by trying to boost it back up to its original % if it loses a ton. That's the whole point of the play money - to take a gamble with a small amount try and hit a big score that has amplified gains. If it does, great, you get to retire earlier than expected. If it goes to nothing or doesn't beat market returns, your original investment was so small that it doesn't adversely impact your retirement trajectory.


This ONLY works if you control your emotions and do not go on tilt.
I know myself well enough that if I lost 5% of my play money on some random stock; I would then double down on another stock ...and keep going until broke.
It is self destructive behavior which many of us have, but won't admit to it.
I learned the hard way playing high stakes poker back in the days. and will never go back to that lifestyle again.

So, if you know this your "normal behavior", why would you even go there? That's like an alcoholic going to a bar. :oops:
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."
bugleheadd
Posts: 618
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by bugleheadd »

play with whatever leftover you have from your paycheck, after deducting maxed out tax deferred and advantage accounts (IRA,401k, Roth,HSA), and after paying your monthly expenses. Never sell your current long term stock holdings to repleneish your "play" account.

if you have the discipline to consistently put in a set amount into TSLA week after week, you might do well.
newguy123
Posts: 107
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:44 am

Re: 1258% YTD

Post by newguy123 »

Mr.BB wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:53 pm
k1982 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 4:58 pm
BigMoneyNoWhammies wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 4:40 pm
Samosa22 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:30 am The problem with strategies like "5% Play money" or "if it goes to zero it won't matter" is that they won't move the needle in your favor either. If you want substantial returns from your risky investments then the amount invested has to be enough to cause some pain if it goes south.
This is only true if you maintain that 5% of your total portfolio even when the play money allocation makes gains by selling off to maintain AA along the way, or if you contribute additional funds along the way to get it back up to that 5% when it is down. A 5% play money gambit can easily grow to enough that it changes other decision making. I have roughly 5% of my portfolio in a 50/50 UPRO/TMF HEDGEFUNDIE strategy. I don't plan on taking any of that $ off the table until it's a rather large amount, nor will I throw good $ after the bad by trying to boost it back up to its original % if it loses a ton. That's the whole point of the play money - to take a gamble with a small amount try and hit a big score that has amplified gains. If it does, great, you get to retire earlier than expected. If it goes to nothing or doesn't beat market returns, your original investment was so small that it doesn't adversely impact your retirement trajectory.


This ONLY works if you control your emotions and do not go on tilt.
I know myself well enough that if I lost 5% of my play money on some random stock; I would then double down on another stock ...and keep going until broke.
It is self destructive behavior which many of us have, but won't admit to it.
I learned the hard way playing high stakes poker back in the days. and will never go back to that lifestyle again.

So, if you know this your "normal behavior", why would you even go there? That's like an alcoholic going to a bar. :oops:


I know the feeling ,it is like keeping bugs away from light... somehow always end up going towards the light lol
Would I rather relax and make money or make money and relax ?
Topic Author
k1982
Posts: 311
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:36 am

Re: 1258% YTD

Post by k1982 »

bugleheadd wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:16 pm play with whatever leftover you have from your paycheck, after deducting maxed out tax deferred and advantage accounts (IRA,401k, Roth,HSA), and after paying your monthly expenses. Never sell your current long term stock holdings to repleneish your "play" account.

if you have the discipline to consistently put in a set amount into TSLA week after week, you might do well.
eh, easier said than done

sounds like a good idea in theory, but it would be near impossible to do for some (including me)

I like to re-buy (double down, chase losses, etc) and that is where my flaw begins ...and it spirals out of control from there

I'm sure many of us can agree with that statement. Some of us don't have that will power.

More of a reason for me to stay under control in my index fund - no emotions involved
I'm more than ok with my portfolio being 100% VFIAX SP500 - cause I know it will bounce back - no action is required on my part

However, there are some of us that can't digest a 40% drop mentally/emotionally; that is why they buy bonds to scale back the risk.

Maybe it all comes back to risk tolerance? in some way or form

single stocks - very risky
index funds - some risk
50/50 portfolio - where most of the population belongs
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hagridshut
Posts: 339
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by hagridshut »

k1982 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:02 am However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc

1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that :moneybag if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

How do you stop yourself?

I don't want to gamble.

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!
Don't gamble. Invest.

Investors put money into a company because they believe that over the long term (years or even decades in the future), that company will thrive and grow in value. This means understanding a business, understanding the market in which that business operates, and getting a sense of where the company is going in the future.

Gambling is buying an asset simply because it is on the way up, with the hopes of unloading that asset before prices fall. The problem is that most people are just not good at this, because fear prevents them from buying low, and greed prevents them from selling high.

Unless you have both (1) the technological expertise to understand something like Tesla or Moderna, and (2) the conviction to hold those companies for years or decades in order to hopefully realize their full potential, you should probably stay away from individual stocks.

Most people have neither the ability to understand or conviction to hold stock in a new tech company over 5, 10 or more years.

Being able to hold onto shares in a good company, when volatility is high and everyone here and in the Mainstream Media is spreading Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt, is extremely difficult.

Unless you have technological expertise and can resist panic selling and greed buying, you should stay far, far away from individual tech stocks.
Taking a break as of 2 Mar. 2021; First Principles: (1) Diversify (2) Low Cost (3) Stay the Course | 3-Fund Index Portfolio
BlueCable
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by BlueCable »

I recall considering the purchase of $100 of bitcoin when it had just crossed the $1 threshold back in 2010-11. That's what, around $2M today?

I didn't purchase any, but it doesn't bother me at all, because I know I would have sold when it hit $2 or some other arbitrary threshold. There's no way I would have held it until now.

If you would bought any of these stocks before they skyrocketed, would you have held on or would you have taken smaller returns early ? How would you evaluate a proper price to make your buy/sell determinations?

I crowdsource my pricing analysis to the market and buy index funds.
Topic Author
k1982
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by k1982 »

BlueCable wrote: Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:09 am I recall considering the purchase of $100 of bitcoin when it had just crossed the $1 threshold back in 2010-11. That's what, around $2M today?

I didn't purchase any, but it doesn't bother me at all, because I know I would have sold when it hit $2 or some other arbitrary threshold. There's no way I would have held it until now.

If you would bought any of these stocks before they skyrocketed, would you have held on or would you have taken smaller returns early ? How would you evaluate a proper price to make your buy/sell determinations?

I crowdsource my pricing analysis to the market and buy index funds.
that is such a true statement!
If you bought for $1 and it hit $2 few days later you would certainly sell cause you already double your money (100% increase) which would take the SP500 about 10-15 years.

But then months later you peek and see bitcoin hit $100. Years later $1000. gosh. I would drive myself crazy knowing how much I "lost" even though I won in a short period of time.
no, thank you! I don't want to go thru such an depressing phase. Too much for me.
could of would of should of
Topic Author
k1982
Posts: 311
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by k1982 »

hagridshut wrote: Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:57 am
k1982 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:02 am However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc

1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that :moneybag if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

How do you stop yourself?

I don't want to gamble.

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!
Don't gamble. Invest. :moneybag

Investors put money into a company because they believe that over the long term (years or even decades in the future), that company will thrive and grow in value. This means understanding a business, understanding the market in which that business operates, and getting a sense of where the company is going in the future.

Gambling is buying an asset simply because it is on the way up, with the hopes of unloading that asset before prices fall. The problem is that most people are just not good at this, because fear prevents them from buying low, and greed prevents them from selling high.

Unless you have both (1) the technological expertise to understand something like Tesla or Moderna, and (2) the conviction to hold those companies for years or decades in order to hopefully realize their full potential, you should probably stay away from individual stocks.

Most people have neither the ability to understand or conviction to hold stock in a new tech company over 5, 10 or more years.

Being able to hold onto shares in a good company, when volatility is high and everyone here and in the Mainstream Media is spreading Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt, is extremely difficult.

Unless you have technological expertise and can resist panic selling and greed buying, you should stay far, far away from individual tech stocks.
certainly have no tech expertise to understand complicated companies like Tesla or Moderna
It would be just speculation and greed - very foolish move

however, I do have a wild imagination and dream big. does that count? :idea:
Triple digit golfer
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by Triple digit golfer »

BlueCable wrote: Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:09 am I recall considering the purchase of $100 of bitcoin when it had just crossed the $1 threshold back in 2010-11. That's what, around $2M today?

I didn't purchase any, but it doesn't bother me at all, because I know I would have sold when it hit $2 or some other arbitrary threshold. There's no way I would have held it until now.

If you would bought any of these stocks before they skyrocketed, would you have held on or would you have taken smaller returns early ? How would you evaluate a proper price to make your buy/sell determinations?

I crowdsource my pricing analysis to the market and buy index funds.
That is so true. Even if I were to "take a risk" and dabble in an individual stock, I would never, ever hold it long enough to make a ton of money. If I saw that I was beating the market by 10%, I'd probably take my winnings and invest everything back into index funds. If I saw that I was losing, I may panic and lose money and cut my losses.

Since the stocks of most companies go down and the market is only driven by few winners, this is a silly gamble to take.
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goodenyou
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by goodenyou »

k1982 wrote: Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:36 pm
hagridshut wrote: Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:57 am
k1982 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:02 am However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc

1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that :moneybag if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

How do you stop yourself?

I don't want to gamble.

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!
Don't gamble. Invest. :moneybag

Investors put money into a company because they believe that over the long term (years or even decades in the future), that company will thrive and grow in value. This means understanding a business, understanding the market in which that business operates, and getting a sense of where the company is going in the future.

Gambling is buying an asset simply because it is on the way up, with the hopes of unloading that asset before prices fall. The problem is that most people are just not good at this, because fear prevents them from buying low, and greed prevents them from selling high.

Unless you have both (1) the technological expertise to understand something like Tesla or Moderna, and (2) the conviction to hold those companies for years or decades in order to hopefully realize their full potential, you should probably stay away from individual stocks.

Most people have neither the ability to understand or conviction to hold stock in a new tech company over 5, 10 or more years.

Being able to hold onto shares in a good company, when volatility is high and everyone here and in the Mainstream Media is spreading Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt, is extremely difficult.

Unless you have technological expertise and can resist panic selling and greed buying, you should stay far, far away from individual tech stocks.
certainly have no tech expertise to understand complicated companies like Tesla or Moderna
It would be just speculation and greed - very foolish move

however, I do have a wild imagination and dream big. does that count? :idea:
Buy a lottery ticket for a few bucks several days before the drawing. Play the game of “what if I won?” for the days leading up to the drawing. It’s a lot of fun and it won’t cost you much.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" | “Do you know how to make a rain dance work? Dance until it rains”
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k1982
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by k1982 »

If you paid for my lottery ticket everyday. I still wouldn't take that proposition. It sounds very depressing.
1 in 100,000 + chance of winning a substantial amount. no, thank you.
BigMoneyNoWhammies
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by BigMoneyNoWhammies »

k1982 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 4:58 pm
BigMoneyNoWhammies wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 4:40 pm
Samosa22 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:30 am The problem with strategies like "5% Play money" or "if it goes to zero it won't matter" is that they won't move the needle in your favor either. If you want substantial returns from your risky investments then the amount invested has to be enough to cause some pain if it goes south.
This is only true if you maintain that 5% of your total portfolio even when the play money allocation makes gains by selling off to maintain AA along the way, or if you contribute additional funds along the way to get it back up to that 5% when it is down. A 5% play money gambit can easily grow to enough that it changes other decision making. I have roughly 5% of my portfolio in a 50/50 UPRO/TMF HEDGEFUNDIE strategy. I don't plan on taking any of that $ off the table until it's a rather large amount, nor will I throw good $ after the bad by trying to boost it back up to its original % if it loses a ton. That's the whole point of the play money - to take a gamble with a small amount try and hit a big score that has amplified gains. If it does, great, you get to retire earlier than expected. If it goes to nothing or doesn't beat market returns, your original investment was so small that it doesn't adversely impact your retirement trajectory.


This ONLY works if you control your emotions and do not go on tilt.
I know myself well enough that if I lost 5% of my play money on some random stock; I would then double down on another stock ...and keep going until broke.
It is self destructive behavior which many of us have, but won't admit to it.
I learned the hard way playing high stakes poker back in the days. and will never go back to that lifestyle again.


Ok, but that isn't a problem with the strategy or allocation, it's a problem with you as an individual. I do not have this same predilection to emotional torment over my investments, so it is irrelevant to me. There's absolutely nothing wrong with planning according to knowing one's likely reactions to adverse markets, but it's wrong to project that bias onto everyone else's planning.
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eye.surgeon
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by eye.surgeon »

k1982 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:02 am I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that :moneybag if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

How do you stop yourself?
I don't want to gamble. I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far
maybe the last sentence is a good enough reason :oops:

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!
I own every one of the outperforming stocks you mentioned, and so do you. So congratulations. Indexing at work.
"I would rather be certain of a good return than hopeful of a great one" | Warren Buffett
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alpenglow
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by alpenglow »

Whatever you do, don't spend time at WSB on reddit. You'll be YOLO'ing on PLTR options in no time.
Marseille07
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by Marseille07 »

Just keep it at 10%. This way, you don't get rekt if you lose it all. Gains will be smaller but if the 10% go 1258% then that'd be sizable. Good traders like me go for 30% but they really need to know what they're doing.
02nz
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by 02nz »

Consider the downside as well as the upside. I know someone who bet the entire taxable and retirement portfolio (seven figures) on a single company stock. This stock went to zero and this person is working well beyond normal retirement age.
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bartio
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by bartio »

02nz wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 6:43 pm Consider the downside as well as the upside. I know someone who bet the entire taxable and retirement portfolio (seven figures) on a single company stock. This stock went to zero and this person is working well beyond normal retirement age.
What company was that? Enron?
3funder
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by 3funder »

My father earned his MBA from Wharton. He has not once thought about speculating in hot investments or investing in an individual stock with the exception of discounted shares of his employer stock (where he was a brand CFO and had the skills to determine if buying discounted shares was a good idea). My point is not to brag about him, but if he never messed with it, I see no need to either.
Global stocks, US bonds, and time.
bltn
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by bltn »

I didn't read the entire thread, as the common sense Boglehead approach has been pretty repetitive.

But I thought I would bring up one thing about the psychology of gambling, which may have been already mentioned. A big win in speculating with individual stocks ( much like gambling )is almost as much of a curse as a blessing. Most will never be able to take their winnings and leave the game. And by staying in, you will eventually succumb to the odds and lose it all back. Sooner or later. To think you will continually beat the odds is self delusional. The casino companies make their money off "knowledgeable gamblers". Investment houses make their money off "knowledgeable" investors.

I succumbed to repeating the party line.
02nz
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by 02nz »

bartio wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:42 pm
02nz wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 6:43 pm Consider the downside as well as the upside. I know someone who bet the entire taxable and retirement portfolio (seven figures) on a single company stock. This stock went to zero and this person is working well beyond normal retirement age.
What company was that? Enron?
Not Enron, and it's not really relevant which company. My point was it can happen to any company, and has happened to many.
dukeblue219
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by dukeblue219 »

Someone once posted a message board thread of investors in GT Advanced, a sapphire glass supplier for Apple. The original link is long dead but archive.org has it cached: https://web.archive.org/web/20160317235 ... 9/page-500

It is fantastic reading if you want a reality check. These posters were regular folk who invested everything in this company believing they would revolutionize phone glass (they had a big Apple contract). On the day Apple suddenly cancelled the contract, the company filed bankruptcy (if I recall the events correctly). Even as the exchanges halted trading in GT Advanced these poor souls were convinced it must be because Apple had acquired the company outright. When news broke of the bankruptcy, the thread filled with sorrow and panic as people realized their entire life savings were gone, and many didn't know how to tell their spouse or their kids that they were back to square one. It's awful to read, but well worth it, even if you would never go all-in on a few (or 1!) individual stock.
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by TheOscarGuy »

k1982 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:02 am I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that :moneybag if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

How do you stop yourself?
I don't want to gamble. I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far
maybe the last sentence is a good enough reason :oops:

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!
You know for yourself this will ruin you mentally and you don't want to gamble, yet you do. It sounds like you need to stop all stimulations that cause you to act. I'd look at whatever media I am consuming and cut off the ones that prompt you to buy. In your own words this reads like a gambling problem. You just need to stay away from it anyway you can :D
Some people can be blissfully ignorant and in this particular case its a good thing. For others, you need to avoid the triggers.

Unless you think buying naked stocks is a winning strategy. Then by all means go all in :happy It doesn't sound like that is the case with you though.
Robert20
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by Robert20 »

I would say.. if you have time to research and spend lot of time,.. do it .. why not?.. Invest 10% of your money in individual stocks and play daily.. if u win every trade 10x.. good for you. Its all about time..
antman50
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by antman50 »

https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/up ... bution.pdf

OP - check out this short paper^

-39% of stocks had a negative lifetime total return (2 out of every 5 stocks are a money losing investment)
-18.5% of stocks lost at least 75% of their value (Nearly 1 out of every 5 stocks is a really bad investment)
-64% of stocks underperformed the Russell 3000 during their lifetime (Most stocks can’t keep up with a diversified index)
-A small minority of stocks significantly outperformed their peers (Capitalism yields a minority of big winners that all have something in common)
Trakl
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by Trakl »

barnaclebob wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:35 am I love that so many people aren't willing to pay 1% in AUM fees but will gladly let 5% of their portfolio under perform on average in the long term via gambling on moonshots.
Ha! Touché! :D
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Nate79
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by Nate79 »

dukeblue219 wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:59 pm Someone once posted a message board thread of investors in GT Advanced, a sapphire glass supplier for Apple. The original link is long dead but archive.org has it cached: https://web.archive.org/web/20160317235 ... 9/page-500

It is fantastic reading if you want a reality check. These posters were regular folk who invested everything in this company believing they would revolutionize phone glass (they had a big Apple contract). On the day Apple suddenly cancelled the contract, the company filed bankruptcy (if I recall the events correctly). Even as the exchanges halted trading in GT Advanced these poor souls were convinced it must be because Apple had acquired the company outright. When news broke of the bankruptcy, the thread filled with sorrow and panic as people realized their entire life savings were gone, and many didn't know how to tell their spouse or their kids that they were back to square one. It's awful to read, but well worth it, even if you would never go all-in on a few (or 1!) individual stock.
Thank you for posting the archived link. I couldn't find the original thread - it's one of my all time favorite stories.
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Makaveli
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Re: 1258% YTD

Post by Makaveli »

Nate79 wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:04 pm
dukeblue219 wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:59 pm Someone once posted a message board thread of investors in GT Advanced, a sapphire glass supplier for Apple. The original link is long dead but archive.org has it cached: https://web.archive.org/web/20160317235 ... 9/page-500

It is fantastic reading if you want a reality check. These posters were regular folk who invested everything in this company believing they would revolutionize phone glass (they had a big Apple contract). On the day Apple suddenly cancelled the contract, the company filed bankruptcy (if I recall the events correctly). Even as the exchanges halted trading in GT Advanced these poor souls were convinced it must be because Apple had acquired the company outright. When news broke of the bankruptcy, the thread filled with sorrow and panic as people realized their entire life savings were gone, and many didn't know how to tell their spouse or their kids that they were back to square one. It's awful to read, but well worth it, even if you would never go all-in on a few (or 1!) individual stock.
Thank you for posting the archived link. I couldn't find the original thread - it's one of my all time favorite stories.
Crazy
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