1258% YTD

[k1982]

I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

How do you stop yourself?
I don't want to gamble. I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far
maybe the last sentence is a good enough reason

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!

[Marseille07]

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

But you aren't all-in. Don't you have a Boglehead portfolio? 401K? IRA? Cash? RE? The "5% of your portfolio" advice isn't a waste of time. That's how you roll if you must.

[theorist]

I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

How do you stop yourself?
I don't want to gamble. I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far
maybe the last sentence is a good enough reason

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!

This thread is pretty inspiring:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=139157

If you pay yourself first with a high savings rate, work on improving yourself vis a vis the job market to get a good salary, and keep steadily investing at an AA that allows you to avoid panic, all evidence from this thread is that you’ll do quite well. So why expose yourself to the vagaries of gambling high fractions of your net worth on a single stock?

[cogito]

I started HedgeFundie, tilted to SCV and EM, a couple ARK funds, and bought a Bitcoin. All riskier strategies that scratch the itch with far less risk than playing with single stocks, let alone options. Works for me, if these are all bad ideas for the next 5 years it won't impact my retirement too much.

[bargainhuntingking]

Easily.

I sold my last Bitcoin 7-8 years ago for ~$300-400. I had speculated for 2 years into the mid-high 5 figures. It was too volatile for me; I lost about $16k total.

Today Bitcoin is worth ~ $20k each.

My original investment, if I had held it, would be worth millions.

Who cares? I could have lost it all too. No regrets, no interest in buying more. I was so glad I had sold it when I did and felt relieved that I didn’t lose more. At the end of that experiment, I wish I had just stuck with a total stock market index fund.

I knew I was gambling. In fact, after reading Michael Lewis’s “Big Short”, even index investing feels like gambling. But what’s the alternative?

It’s fun to retrospectively think of the “what if’s”, but I have no interest in trying to guess the next out-performer.

[Samosa22]

The problem with strategies like "5% Play money" or "if it goes to zero it won't matter" is that they won't move the needle in your favor either. If you want substantial returns from your risky investments then the amount invested has to be enough to cause some pain if it goes south.

[k1982]

Easily.

I sold my last Bitcoin 7-8 years ago for ~$300-400. I had speculated for 2 years into the mid-high 5 figures. It was too volatile for me; I lost about $16k total.

Today Bitcoin is worth ~ $20k each.

My original investment, if had held it, would be worth millions.

Who cares? I could have lost it all too. No regrets, no interest in buying more. I was so glad I had sold it when I did and felt relieved that I didn’t lose more. At the end of that experiment, I wish I had just stuck with a total stock market index fund.

I knew I was gambling. In fact, after reading Michael Lewis’s “Big Short”, even index investing feels like gambling. But what’s the alternative?

It’s fun to retrospectively think of the “what if’s”, but I have no interest in trying to guess the next out-performer.

very true statement.
all I would be doing is just guessing. speculating on the next big stock
I want to built wealth and that is why I frequent this site everyday.

It's so hard not to tinker around...
I guess the hardest part about being a Boglehead is just standing there. doing nothing...

[burritoLover]

It’s like lamenting after a lottery drawing because you think it’s possible you could have picked those numbers. Makes no sense.

[bg5]

I also am a firm believer in boglehead philosophy. I live well below my means. 90% of my money is in VTSAX which I think is the best fund in the world.

But I also believe in having a little bit of skin in the game to get returns that are like those that you posted above. I currently have about 10% invested in bitcoin (GBTC) and this think will probably return my money 25-50 times in the next decade. As I see it I cannot miss out on an opportunity like this. Bitcoin is very similar to Tesla in regards to being something different. I missed out on Tesla, Amazon, and Apple but I am not going to miss out on Bitcoin. If it goes belly up then I am only out 10% which is not gonna kill me.

Do yourself a favor and invest in Bitcoin.....you will be glad you did in 20 years. 5% wont kill you and if will get you returns like you have never seen before but be ready for a bumpy ride

[Jags4186]

The problem with strategies like "5% Play money" or "if it goes to zero it won't matter" is that they won't move the needle in your favor either. If you want substantial returns from your risky investments then the amount invested has to be enough to cause some pain if it goes south.

It will though:

Assume you have $100,000 invested. $5000 in a random high flyer stock, $95,000 in an TSM fund. If the TSM returns 10% and the stock goes to zero your return for the year is 4.5%. If the TSM returns 10% and the high flyer 10x’s, your return is 54.5%. If you just manage to do that one time and then abandon the strategy, you are incredibly better off.

In this example, if a 30 year old were to achieve the above, then abandoned the strategy and over the next 30 years received 10% CAGR on this money, he’d have $2.695mm. Someone who just owned the index would have $1.745mm. And someone who tried it and lost the 5% one time would have $1.658mm.

The question is, how many times will 5% go to zero before you find a 10x? I don’t think it’s as bad as that though because the likelihood of a stock going to zero before exiting the position is low.

[arcticpineapplecorp.]

it has "jumped."
that doesn't mean it will continue to jump.
it may.
it may not.
all you know is what's in the rear view mirror.
yet you're expecting the same going forward.
is the future ever the same as the past?

look up recency and hindsight bias.
learn about it.
avoid it.

reversion to the mean is a thing too.
most stocks that go up alot can come cratering back down to earth too.

[Dude2]

I work for a boring old defense contractor, and, recently, believing I was making a point to a coworker, we plugged in our company vs. TSM into portfolio visualizer. From 2002, $10,000 of TSM grew to $45,000; whereas, our company $156,500 ==> 3.4X. The point was made moot. To the risk takers, sometimes go the rewards. However, there was Enron.

[goodenyou]

Do you like to win more than you hate to lose? You will resist the temptation to gamble on stocks when you do something that really hurts. It will be just a matter of time before you pick a “for sure” winner and it crashes. If you can survive that reality with your hard-earned money, then you have a high risk tolerance. I would rather have average returns that have a very high probability of getting me to land of no alarm clocks.

Here is what I do: Instead of looking at the stocks that have gone up and say to myself “of course they went up. I should have invested in them because I was smart enough to see that”, I look at the stocks that should have gone up and crashed and said to myself “I am glad that I’m not that poor bastard that took a beating on that stock that should have gone up”.

[Mullins]

lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

How do you stop yourself?
I don't want to gamble. I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far
maybe the last sentence is a good enough reason

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!

So, I notice twice you say "I can't help it..." I've heard, "I can't help myself, that's just the way I am" used as an excuse for decades by many people to excuse many things about themselves. It's a terrible excuse because it means the person's saying they have NO control over outside forces making them act this way. And, would have us believe that as people, they aren't able to grow or develop aspects of themselves, and remain helpless.

Stop focusing on the "what if's" because that on your mind ("think of what I could be doing with all that") is what generates your feelings ("gets your juices going") until it gets to a point where it acts like fuel, making you give in and act on them. The thoughts may come in your head but you don't need to give them permission to stay there.

[Anon9001]

I think you are looking for positive skewness which diversification reduces:https://www.morningstar.com/articles/93 ... sification

The 5-10% speculation part could actually be valuable in increasing skewness but only if you chose the most riskiest things out there that have high risk of going to 0 other-wise it is waste as volatility would be too low to make difference to portfolio. The things that you listed most likely qualify other-wise they wouldn't have given such high returns in short period of time so you could probably allocate the percentage to that.

[FrugalInvestor]

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc

Why do you even look at individual stocks?

I just look at the broad market indexes because that's what I'm invested in. On the other hand, if a conversation or an article about an individual 'hot' stock comes up I can honestly say (usually just to myself unless I'm trying to make a point) "I probably own some of that."

My advice to you is to stop looking at individual stocks in the short-term and focus on the market in the long-term. That's what matters. If you start trying to pick winners you'll also get the losers right along with them and almost certainly be worse off in the long term.

[Firemenot]

How about getting a job with options? Great way to swing for the fences. I only started receiving options three years ago (publicly listed stock) and they’re already about 550K in the money. It’s a heck of a roller coaster ride too. They zeroed in March with Covid.

[Dottie57]

I worked way too hard for my money to “play” with it. Swinging for the fences on a stock is just a desire to gamble. To hit the jackpot so to speak. I “won” my game the old fashioned way - steadily investing in 401k/Roth.

[barnaclebob]

I love that so many people aren't willing to pay 1% in AUM fees but will gladly let 5% of their portfolio under perform on average in the long term via gambling on moonshots.

[newguy123]

Easily.

I sold my last Bitcoin 7-8 years ago for ~$300-400. I had speculated for 2 years into the mid-high 5 figures. It was too volatile for me; I lost about $16k total.

Today Bitcoin is worth ~ $20k each.

My original investment, if had held it, would be worth millions.

Who cares? I could have lost it all too. No regrets, no interest in buying more. I was so glad I had sold it when I did and felt relieved that I didn’t lose more. At the end of that experiment, I wish I had just stuck with a total stock market index fund.

I knew I was gambling. In fact, after reading Michael Lewis’s “Big Short”, even index investing feels like gambling. But what’s the alternative?

It’s fun to retrospectively think of the “what if’s”, but I have no interest in trying to guess the next out-performer.

I know the feeling, I went all in Nvda when it was in the 20s, then it fell to 17 and I chickened out and sold at a loss ... hurts seeing it now haha. but that is the game we play, some win and some lose. Just gotta keep going. I also had a huge loss speculating this year which is my final straw with speculation, it is awesome when you win, but when you lose, it really takes years off of life to shake off the depression.

On the other hand, I went all in MCZ (mad catz game controller company) sometime in 2007-2009 when it was a dollar or so and I am glad I sold it ... it is under a penny now ...

OP if you are looking for someone who did YOLO into single stock plays "all or nothing" ,I am your man ... some success, some failure. Mentally though, it takes a toll on almost everyone. Mental health is the cost of yolo's which I think many people don't factor in

[bloom2708]

It is easy to see the "great deals" in the past.

Today, right now, what stock is a "great deal"?

Hopefully many/most of them that I own in the Total US Stock index.

Confidence doesn't equate to success.

[retired@50]

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!

Instead of spending time reading about the success stories of individual stocks this year, spend some time reading about some abysmal failures from the past. Enron, etc.

https://www.britannica.com/event/Enron-scandal

Using index funds requires a trade off. You wipe out the possibility of gaining 1258% YTD, and at the same time, you wipe out the possibility of losing every cent because one company went out of business. What you're buying is the safety and security of being in the middle, somewhere between the best outcomes and the worst outcomes. Index investing avoids the "poor" house, and if you engage in it long enough, and contribute regularly, you'll wind up in the "good enough" house.

Regards,

[Mullins]

And also, in real time, it's not a smooth ride in only an up direction. You may not be so thrilled about the ride and jump off with a loss. That 1258% YTD rise... what if you had owned it in 2016 at $10 and then saw it tumble to $4? What if you did buy it in Jan 2020 at 1.07 only to see it fall to .64 cents? Or held on, saw it go to $6 and then drop to where it is now? What if you're hearing stories about it that make you nervous? What if you decide to put in stop losses but get whipsawed with them?

[NYCPete]

I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

How do you stop yourself?
I don't want to gamble. I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far
maybe the last sentence is a good enough reason

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!

Two things have kept me from it.

1) Short term capital gains taxes - Sure stocks can go up 20% in a day. That means they can also go down that much in a day too. Holding onto a high flying stock for a year while riding through its volatility is not fun. If you decide you want to "lock in your gains" be prepared to pay your income tax rate for the privilege of doing so.

2) Let's say you promise yourself to only hold stock for the long term. Except that holding a stock for the long term is not intuitive - I can guarantee that if you'd had the choice in 2005 between buying either Google or Dominos Pizza, based on which one you thought would be a better long term investment, you'd have picked Google. And you'd have been spectacularly wrong as to which was the better investment. Domino's Pizza by a mile. Nobody knows nothing.

Best,
Peter

[newguy123]

I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

How do you stop yourself?
I don't want to gamble. I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far
maybe the last sentence is a good enough reason

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!

Two things have kept me from it.

1) Short term capital gains taxes - Sure stocks can go up 20% in a day. That means they can also go down that much in a day too. Holding onto a high flying stock for a year while riding through its volatility is not fun. If you decide you want to "lock in your gains" be prepared to pay your income tax rate for the privilege of doing so.

2) Let's say you promise yourself to only hold stock for the long term. Except that holding a stock for the long term is not intuitive - I can guarantee that if you'd had the choice in 2005 between buying either Google or Dominos Pizza, based on which one you thought would be a better long term investment, you'd have picked Google. And you'd have been spectacularly wrong as to which was the better investment. Domino's Pizza by a mile. Nobody knows nothing.

Best,
Peter

1. Usually people who go all in one stock have capital losses from previous losses which offset the gains rolling forward, don't ask how I know lol

[Marseille07]

I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

How do you stop yourself?
I don't want to gamble. I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far
maybe the last sentence is a good enough reason

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!

Two things have kept me from it.

1) Short term capital gains taxes - Sure stocks can go up 20% in a day. That means they can also go down that much in a day too. Holding onto a high flying stock for a year while riding through its volatility is not fun. If you decide you want to "lock in your gains" be prepared to pay your income tax rate for the privilege of doing so.

2) Let's say you promise yourself to only hold stock for the long term. Except that holding a stock for the long term is not intuitive - I can guarantee that if you'd had the choice in 2005 between buying either Google or Dominos Pizza, based on which one you thought would be a better long term investment, you'd have picked Google. And you'd have been spectacularly wrong as to which was the better investment. Domino's Pizza by a mile. Nobody knows nothing.

Best,
Peter

1. Usually people who go all in one stock have capital losses from previous losses which offset the gains rolling forward, don't ask how I know lol

I'm trading one stock all year, up bigly. I trade both sides (long & short) though.

[newguy123]

I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

How do you stop yourself?
I don't want to gamble. I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far
maybe the last sentence is a good enough reason

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!

Two things have kept me from it.

1) Short term capital gains taxes - Sure stocks can go up 20% in a day. That means they can also go down that much in a day too. Holding onto a high flying stock for a year while riding through its volatility is not fun. If you decide you want to "lock in your gains" be prepared to pay your income tax rate for the privilege of doing so.

2) Let's say you promise yourself to only hold stock for the long term. Except that holding a stock for the long term is not intuitive - I can guarantee that if you'd had the choice in 2005 between buying either Google or Dominos Pizza, based on which one you thought would be a better long term investment, you'd have picked Google. And you'd have been spectacularly wrong as to which was the better investment. Domino's Pizza by a mile. Nobody knows nothing.

Best,
Peter

1. Usually people who go all in one stock have capital losses from previous losses which offset the gains rolling forward, don't ask how I know lol

I'm trading one stock all year, up bigly. I trade both sides (long & short) though.

Same, I go long short, last thing that blew me out was short tesla with puts. I was up ~200% this year and blew it all. Lost about 30k of capital as well with it. Not happy but such is life as a speculator ... I may give speculation one last year next year as I am carrying over a loss. After that I am going the boggle head strategy whether I win or lose next year

[Prettyfrtnt]

I did the 10% play money thing and now it’s 50%. Rather happy I did. Now with first world problems in regards to rebalancing out. Super fun problem to have. It moved the needle for me.

My advice if you must: be a retail investor that knows more than Wall Street this is possible now with Twitter/Reddit. And yes I believe as a retail investor I know quite a bit more about the companies I own than Wall Street. Elon Musk agrees w me. It’s only possible with modern communication technology.

Buy and hold. Don’t forget taxes. Own only things you would expect to still want to have in 10 years. Trading and options is stupid to me. Mainly because you can’t gain an edge and the taxation on it ruins it—one big year and you are taxed 40%, next year you lose 100k government doesn’t give you money back. It’s work you must follow carefully all individual stocks you own.

Conceptually for me it only makes sense to do this concentrated risk when you are young and have huge personal capital.

I’ve been told I’m wrong so many times by posters here in the last two years luckily when I log into my brokerage account there are millions and millions of reasons to reflect I was right.

[arcticpineapplecorp.]

I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

How do you stop yourself?
I don't want to gamble. I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far
maybe the last sentence is a good enough reason

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!

Two things have kept me from it.

1) Short term capital gains taxes - Sure stocks can go up 20% in a day. That means they can also go down that much in a day too. Holding onto a high flying stock for a year while riding through its volatility is not fun. If you decide you want to "lock in your gains" be prepared to pay your income tax rate for the privilege of doing so.

2) Let's say you promise yourself to only hold stock for the long term. Except that holding a stock for the long term is not intuitive - I can guarantee that if you'd had the choice in 2005 between buying either Google or Dominos Pizza, based on which one you thought would be a better long term investment, you'd have picked Google. And you'd have been spectacularly wrong as to which was the better investment. Domino's Pizza by a mile. Nobody knows nothing.

Best,
Peter

1. Usually people who go all in one stock have capital losses from previous losses which offset the gains rolling forward, don't ask how I know lol

I'm trading one stock all year, up bigly. I trade both sides (long & short) though.

Same, I go long short, last thing that blew me out was short tesla with puts. I was up ~200% this year and blew it all. Lost about 30k of capital as well with it. Not happy but such is life as a speculator ... I may give speculation one last year next year as I am carrying over a loss. After that I am going the boggle head strategy whether I win or lose next year

i'll give the benefit of the doubt and said it was a typing error, but it's Bogle, not boggle.

this post does Boggle the mind, though, so there's that.

[JoeRetire]

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

No problem. Your challenge is to pick the next single stock that is going to jump 20% and pick the correct day.

Good luck with that - I suspect you'll need more than juices.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

Great! Go for the gusto. Go big or go home. Bet it all on black. YOLO!
Hopefully, nobody is depending on you financially, and that the risk is solely to yourself? If so, have fun.

How do you stop yourself?

It's not all that hard. I think it through and realize that I have succeeded financially by never investing in lottery tickets.

I don't want to gamble.

It sure seems like you do.

I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far

So how lucky do you feel?

On a serious note, if you are actually interested, make your home run, going to be the next 1258% winner, can't miss stock pick here. Post it here publicly first, without actually using your real money. Maybe you'll be able to learn a valuable lesson without throwing your money away. Maybe not.

[Nate79]

There are always going to be high flying stocks. Best to not let it keep you up at night. If professionals can't pick winners consistently why do you think you could?

[newguy123]

Two things have kept me from it.

1) Short term capital gains taxes - Sure stocks can go up 20% in a day. That means they can also go down that much in a day too. Holding onto a high flying stock for a year while riding through its volatility is not fun. If you decide you want to "lock in your gains" be prepared to pay your income tax rate for the privilege of doing so.

2) Let's say you promise yourself to only hold stock for the long term. Except that holding a stock for the long term is not intuitive - I can guarantee that if you'd had the choice in 2005 between buying either Google or Dominos Pizza, based on which one you thought would be a better long term investment, you'd have picked Google. And you'd have been spectacularly wrong as to which was the better investment. Domino's Pizza by a mile. Nobody knows nothing.

Best,
Peter

1. Usually people who go all in one stock have capital losses from previous losses which offset the gains rolling forward, don't ask how I know lol

I'm trading one stock all year, up bigly. I trade both sides (long & short) though.

Same, I go long short, last thing that blew me out was short tesla with puts. I was up ~200% this year and blew it all. Lost about 30k of capital as well with it. Not happy but such is life as a speculator ... I may give speculation one last year next year as I am carrying over a loss. After that I am going the boggle head strategy whether I win or lose next year

i'll give the benefit of the doubt and said it was a typing error, but it's Bogle, not boggle.

this post does Boggle the mind, though, so there's that.

good catch, hahaha . Yep I don't have a clear cut strategy yet, but am trying to develop my own. I am treating the loss this year as education to develop my own strategy which I can speculate and also not lose everything. I am giving it one year, if it fails I will just do the boglehead strategy which is tried and works, but I don't think I can be peaceful on my deathbed thinking what if I never tried things "my way"

[Marseille07]

good catch, hahaha . Yep I don't have a clear cut strategy yet, but am trying to develop my own. I am treating the loss this year as education to develop my own strategy which I can speculate and also not lose everything. I am giving it one year, if it fails I will just do the boglehead strategy which is tried and works, but I don't think I can be peaceful on my deathbed thinking what if I never tried things "my way"

Trading individual tickers isn't easy. There's no TA for something like Tesla. You *could* B&H I suppose, if you can stomach huge ups and downs.

[arcticpineapplecorp.]

I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

here's some other thoughts:
1. some of the stocks you mention haven't been around that long:
Moderna Dec 7, 2018
Expeng 8/28/2020
NIO 9/14/2018

so while they may have done well since March 2020 that's only 8 months of great data. Would you really stake your entire investment lifetime on 8 months and how would you know which stocks will do great the next 8 months (hint, it's probably not the same stocks). And epeng's only been around for 3 months? Man that's really short term thinking. Why not just buy IPOs? (that's not a recommendation).

here's another example of 50/50 tesla and overstock vs total stock market index fund:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion3_2=50

most of the extraordinary gains came since March. Pretty short time period.

2. tesla and overstock have been around longer but look at how they've done since inception) overstock goes back further, but tesla only goes back to 6/29/10 so that's as far back as we can go and compare to the total stock market index fund since 6/29/10):



source:
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D

telsa did great but overstock did worse than the total market. If you look at how overstock did this year, sure it beat the market, but not over the long term. Hint: the same may be true for tesla, we have yet to know the future.

3. so you can use whatever time period you want to make your point.
4. if you pick individual stocks some may do well and some may do not and some may be average. You may think, but if I just have one Tesla that'll more than make up for all the dogs, right? Perhaps, but again, you have to know right now which stocks are going to be the next tesla. You can't just buy tesla today and expect the same results of tesla from the past. That's foolish.

[newguy123]

good catch, hahaha . Yep I don't have a clear cut strategy yet, but am trying to develop my own. I am treating the loss this year as education to develop my own strategy which I can speculate and also not lose everything. I am giving it one year, if it fails I will just do the boglehead strategy which is tried and works, but I don't think I can be peaceful on my deathbed thinking what if I never tried things "my way"

Trading individual tickers isn't easy. There's no TA for something like Tesla. You *could* B&H I suppose, if you can stomach huge ups and downs.

Yep, TA doesn't work which is why I failed this year. I am focusing more on fundamentals now and buy and hold but with a certain percentage gain where I would sell as opposed to buy and hold forever.

[Marseille07]

good catch, hahaha . Yep I don't have a clear cut strategy yet, but am trying to develop my own. I am treating the loss this year as education to develop my own strategy which I can speculate and also not lose everything. I am giving it one year, if it fails I will just do the boglehead strategy which is tried and works, but I don't think I can be peaceful on my deathbed thinking what if I never tried things "my way"

Trading individual tickers isn't easy. There's no TA for something like Tesla. You *could* B&H I suppose, if you can stomach huge ups and downs.

Yep, TA doesn't work which is why I failed this year. I am focusing more on fundamentals now and buy and hold but with a certain percentage gain where I would sell as opposed to buy and hold forever.

I see. I think that's a safer approach, certainly better than trying to go shorting, which is never easy.

[Firemenot]

I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

How do you stop yourself?
I don't want to gamble. I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far
maybe the last sentence is a good enough reason

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!

How about looking to scratch the itch via employment? Try to get a job with options (where non-option compensation is satisfactory) at one of the companies with stock you’re tempted to invest it. Typically the options are good for 10 years in publicly traded companies. You can’t even buy such option on the open market.

[newguy123]

good catch, hahaha . Yep I don't have a clear cut strategy yet, but am trying to develop my own. I am treating the loss this year as education to develop my own strategy which I can speculate and also not lose everything. I am giving it one year, if it fails I will just do the boglehead strategy which is tried and works, but I don't think I can be peaceful on my deathbed thinking what if I never tried things "my way"

Trading individual tickers isn't easy. There's no TA for something like Tesla. You *could* B&H I suppose, if you can stomach huge ups and downs.

Yep, TA doesn't work which is why I failed this year. I am focusing more on fundamentals now and buy and hold but with a certain percentage gain where I would sell as opposed to buy and hold forever.

I see. I think that's a safer approach, certainly better than trying to go shorting, which is never easy.

Yep with time expiring options none the less, haha . Trying a lot less risky "YOLOs"

[simba1]

The way I've done it is analyze every single investment mistake I've made over the last 10 years.

My biggest losses were when I did emotional trading and broke my investment rules.

I've also saved all the great FOMO quotes in an excel spreadsheet and refer it to time and time again.

I also refer to the statistics that over time stock-picking will not outperform the market.

This has generally helped.

It's gotten really hard when all your friends are "diamond handing" tesla

Also really hard when EV stocks are 2-3x up on nothing.

[1789]

I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

How do you stop yourself?
I don't want to gamble. I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far
maybe the last sentence is a good enough reason

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!

I am with you. 5-10% is meaningless. If i am gambling it better worth my time. I can only provide some points here.

Lets say i have a portfolio of 200k total and i see that NIKOLA is the stock i want to buy due to its past performace, as it skyrocketed along with others. Assume i bought it two days ago and now my portfolio decreased to 120k from 200k. That is like losing more annual income for an average household in just two days. The reason is will you buy Nicola stock today or not? I could also buy Zoom two days ago and see where i would sit now , similar loss.

Just look at your financial goals and see if you can reach your goals by assuming 5-6% returns (market returns). If so, what will having more money add to your life? I am almost certain nothing! If you cant reach your financial goals with average expected market returns then you will throw the dice and decide if you want to gamble or adjust your lifestyle (cuttings expenses, increasing savings etc..)

Remember in a stock trading there will be always losers and winners, never assume you will be the winnner!

[Triple digit golfer]

You can also look at yesterday's winning lottery numbers and said that you should have played those numbers. What good does it do you after the fact?

The facts are the the vast majority of stocks are losers. The market return is carried by just a handful of winners.

I'm sure somebody can post a link or some cool charts demonstrating this.

Why would you try to pick the winners when the odds are stacked so highly against you?

Why not pick a handful of stocks and track on a spreadsheet for 2021? At the end of the year, see how you did compared to the whole market.

[nigel_ht]

You can also look at yesterday's winning lottery numbers and said that you should have played those numbers. What good does it do you after the fact?

The facts are the the vast majority of stocks are losers. The market return is carried by just a handful of winners.

Eh, picking the winners isn't the hardest part...it's when to get out while it's still a winner.

Its not like TSLA was super sekrit. Or APPL the last decade. Or CSCO in its heyday...but getting out of CSCO before the dot bomb killed it was harder to figure out.

[simba1]

You can also look at yesterday's winning lottery numbers and said that you should have played those numbers. What good does it do you after the fact?

The facts are the the vast majority of stocks are losers. The market return is carried by just a handful of winners.

Eh, picking the winners isn't the hardest part...it's when to get out while it's still a winner.

Its not like TSLA was super sekrit. Or APPL the last decade. Or CSCO in its heyday...but getting out of CSCO before the dot bomb killed it was harder to figure out.

Perhaps... but I have my doubts, we often only remember the stocks that went up and forget all the crappy ones... the best stock pickers in New York can't even beat the S&P 500! What chance does everyone else ahve!

Warren Buffet even made a $1M bet that the S&P 500 index will beat out any set of hand-picked hedge funds in 2008!

https://money.cnn.com/2018/02/24/invest ... index.html

"His pick, the S&P 500 (OEX), gained 125.8% over ten years. The five hedge funds, picked by a firm called Protégé Partners, added an average of about 36%. The names of the funds were not disclosed."

[SmallSaver]

If I could reliably pick the 1258%/yr companies I'd absolutely do that. I can't though, so I don't worry about it. I'd play the lotto and gamble on sports too if I knew I was always going to win. Indexing has the twin advantages of being a quantifiably superior strategy and incredibly easy and low stress.

[k1982]

If I could reliably pick the 1258%/yr companies I'd absolutely do that. I can't though, so I don't worry about it. I'd play the lotto and gamble on sports too if I knew I was always going to win. Indexing has the twin advantages of being a quantifiably superior strategy and incredibly easy and low stress.

+1

[k1982]

I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

How do you stop yourself?
I don't want to gamble. I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far
maybe the last sentence is a good enough reason

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!

I am with you. 5-10% is meaningless. If i am gambling it better worth my time. I can only provide some points here.

Lets say i have a portfolio of 200k total and i see that NIKOLA is the stock i want to buy due to its past performace, as it skyrocketed along with others. Assume i bought it two days ago and now my portfolio decreased to 120k from 200k. That is like losing more annual income for an average household in just two days. The reason is will you buy Nicola stock today or not? I could also buy Zoom two days ago and see where i would sit now , similar loss.

Just look at your financial goals and see if you can reach your goals by assuming 5-6% returns (market returns). If so, what will having more money add to your life? I am almost certain nothing! If you cant reach your financial goals with average expected market returns then you will throw the dice and decide if you want to gamble or adjust your lifestyle (cuttings expenses, increasing savings etc..)

Remember in a stock trading there will be always losers and winners, never assume you will be the winnner!

+1
you are 100% correct. I can reach my financial goal before I retire. all I need is nominal returns of 6-7% in the next 25-30 years.
btw, i'm 38 years old and 100% VFIAX

However, with single stocks I can ruin myself financially and have nothing saved for retirement.

I want the peace of mind when I turn 65 I can relax and enjoy life.

[1789]

I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

How do you stop yourself?
I don't want to gamble. I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far
maybe the last sentence is a good enough reason

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!

I am with you. 5-10% is meaningless. If i am gambling it better worth my time. I can only provide some points here.

Lets say i have a portfolio of 200k total and i see that NIKOLA is the stock i want to buy due to its past performace, as it skyrocketed along with others. Assume i bought it two days ago and now my portfolio decreased to 120k from 200k. That is like losing more annual income for an average household in just two days. The reason is will you buy Nicola stock today or not? I could also buy Zoom two days ago and see where i would sit now , similar loss.

Just look at your financial goals and see if you can reach your goals by assuming 5-6% returns (market returns). If so, what will having more money add to your life? I am almost certain nothing! If you cant reach your financial goals with average expected market returns then you will throw the dice and decide if you want to gamble or adjust your lifestyle (cuttings expenses, increasing savings etc..)

Remember in a stock trading there will be always losers and winners, never assume you will be the winnner!

+1
you are 100% correct. I can reach my financial goal before I retire. all I need is nominal returns of 6-7% in the next 25-30 years.
btw, i'm 38 years old and 100% VFIAX

However, with single stocks I can ruin myself financially and have nothing saved for retirement.

I want the peace of mind when I turn 65 I can relax and enjoy life.

I understand that it is very tempting but remember more money doesn't mean much if you can reach your goals already. We are also close to your age ~36 yr olds and all in VTSAX/VFIAX. You cant go wrong with your portfolio. Stay positive and please remember investing is not a competition. It is about reaching your own goals. Lots of people gambling with stocks have no idea how much money they need to reach their financial goals. They just want more money and sadly they get less money at the end because they lose big. Good luck.

[k1982]

I don't think I can stomach a loss of 40% on a single stock within a few days, especially knowing most of my life savings is on that ride along.
I would do something emotional and foolish
I won't know if that stock will eventually go up in the future - way too stressful !!

However, If my VFIAX SP500 drops 40% in a few weeks it's an opportunity to buy more on sale!!
I know it will eventually go back up - the american economy always goes back up. At least in the past 100 + years
my index fund doesn't effect me emotionally at all. No stress. Its easy and fun.

The hardest part about being a Boglehead is doing nothing. Just standing there.

[simba1]

Most of my buddies who work at the best asset management firms cannot even the beat the index!

I used to think that I was smarter than them. I had the best stock mentors, I read every investment book.

I ended up outperforming the markets in some years and underperform in other years.

After accounting for fees, and the huge headache, I wasn't really ahead of the market.

Plus, I could of done so much more productive things with my time!

This is coming from a guy who actually worked on Wall Street!

Beating the market is a fool's game! Everyone mentions $TSLA, but for every $TSLA, there are 100s of companies that match or underperform the market

I have yet to see a professional money manager beat the index over the last 20-25 years (1995-2020 or 2000-2020) after fees, as it really does include many economic cycles (commodities, technology, financial crises).

Some can do it only a 1-month, 6-month, 1-year, 3-year and even 5-year basis (key: most don't). Once you stretch out returns to 10+ years the room becomes empty of money managers who beat a buy-hold index strategy

[k1982]

I have been a very loyal index fund investor since January 2020. I strongly agree with Bogleheads philosophy and have been praising it to everyone.

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc
I know this is looking at after the fact/It has already happened and the party might stop soon and self destruct

Seeing a stock jump 20% in a day is insane.
1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that if I was on that ride.
It gets my juices going.

P.S. I never bought individual stocks before. and please don't waste your time telling me 5% of your portfolio is ok for play money.
I'm a all in or nothing guy. I can't help it.

How do you stop yourself?
I don't want to gamble. I know it will ruin me mentally ...and possibly cost me everything I built so far
maybe the last sentence is a good enough reason

Please help. Any wise words are appreciated!!

I am with you. 5-10% is meaningless. If i am gambling it better worth my time. I can only provide some points here.

Lets say i have a portfolio of 200k total and i see that NIKOLA is the stock i want to buy due to its past performace, as it skyrocketed along with others. Assume i bought it two days ago and now my portfolio decreased to 120k from 200k. That is like losing more annual income for an average household in just two days. The reason is will you buy Nicola stock today or not? I could also buy Zoom two days ago and see where i would sit now , similar loss.

Just look at your financial goals and see if you can reach your goals by assuming 5-6% returns (market returns). If so, what will having more money add to your life? I am almost certain nothing! If you cant reach your financial goals with average expected market returns then you will throw the dice and decide if you want to gamble or adjust your lifestyle (cuttings expenses, increasing savings etc..)

Remember in a stock trading there will be always losers and winners, never assume you will be the winnner!

+1
you are 100% correct. I can reach my financial goal before I retire. all I need is nominal returns of 6-7% in the next 25-30 years.
btw, i'm 38 years old and 100% VFIAX

However, with single stocks I can ruin myself financially and have nothing saved for retirement.

I want the peace of mind when I turn 65 I can relax and enjoy life.

I understand that it is very tempting but remember more money doesn't mean much if you can reach your goals already. We are also close to your age ~36 yr olds and all in VTSAX/VFIAX. You cant go wrong with your portfolio. Stay positive and please remember investing is not a competition. It is about reaching your own goals. Lots of people gambling with stocks have no idea how much money they need to reach their financial goals. They just want more money and sadly they get less money at the end because they lose big. Good luck.

haha thanks for the reality check
I'm a very competitive person so sometimes I treat this as a game (I like to keep score against other players) - very foolish on my part

I have to keeping telling myself I'm a Boglehead for stability, growth, and financial independence.

Thank you everyone for the kind replies and different perspectives.
Sometimes you just need a reality check from the wise/more experienced before you do something that can set you back years.