Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Have a question about your personal investments? No matter how simple or complex, you can ask it here.
lostdog
Posts: 3581
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by lostdog »

Chicken Little wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 4:33 am
abuss368 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:21 amWe are help investors one at a time transition to the Two Fund Portfolio.
To serve your mission better, I think what you really want to do is prevent investors from investing in international in the first place. I'm not so sure about the transitioning advice.
To sell low and buy high and then applaud them for it. :oops:
Brokerage: VTI+VXUS || Retirement: VTWAX || Short-Term: Cash+BSV || 33x Expenses
visualguy
Posts: 2175
Joined: Thu Jan 30, 2014 1:32 am

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by visualguy »

I don't know why it's selling "low". Ex-US P/E is currently higher than its historical average. The fact that the index hasn't gone anywhere in well over a decade doesn't mean that it's cheap - ex-US earnings stagnated, unlike US earnings.
rockstar
Posts: 1128
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:51 pm

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by rockstar »

RadAudit wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 6:48 am An earlier poster (Actin?) to this thread asked:

"International investing is a catch 22. It has underperformed the past 13 years, so anyone that dumps it is performance chasing and if you're holding it because you think it's going to change, you're market timing."

Excellent observation for almost any investment. What's the universally approved holding period?
I like to hold for two years before making any decisions. Of course, if it drops below its 300 day moving average, I'm out.
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 23020
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by abuss368 »

I am curious how many Bogleheads believe that Vanguard will eventually move to a recommended allocation (and change the Target and LifeStrategy funds) of US 50% and International 50%? Vanguard recommended 20% years ago, then 30%, and now 40%.

Then of course international bonds of 30% and US bonds of 70%. Vanguard recommended 20% and now 30%.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
000
Posts: 4052
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am
Location: Ursa Minor

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by 000 »

abuss368 wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:23 pm I am curious how many Bogleheads believe that Vanguard will eventually move to a recommended allocation (and change the Target and LifeStrategy funds) of US 50% and International 50%? Vanguard recommended 20% years ago, then 30%, and now 40%.

Then of course international bonds of 30% and US bonds of 70%. Vanguard recommended 20% and now 30%.
I doubt they'll ever go above world market cap.
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 23020
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by abuss368 »

000 wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:34 pm
abuss368 wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:23 pm I am curious how many Bogleheads believe that Vanguard will eventually move to a recommended allocation (and change the Target and LifeStrategy funds) of US 50% and International 50%? Vanguard recommended 20% years ago, then 30%, and now 40%.

Then of course international bonds of 30% and US bonds of 70%. Vanguard recommended 20% and now 30%.
I doubt they'll ever go above world market cap.
Is world market cap presently 60% US and 40% International?
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
000
Posts: 4052
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am
Location: Ursa Minor

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by 000 »

abuss368 wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:45 pm
000 wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:34 pm
abuss368 wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:23 pm I am curious how many Bogleheads believe that Vanguard will eventually move to a recommended allocation (and change the Target and LifeStrategy funds) of US 50% and International 50%? Vanguard recommended 20% years ago, then 30%, and now 40%.

Then of course international bonds of 30% and US bonds of 70%. Vanguard recommended 20% and now 30%.
I doubt they'll ever go above world market cap.
Is world market cap presently 60% US and 40% International?
Here you go... https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... olio/vtwax
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 23020
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by abuss368 »

000 wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:05 pm
abuss368 wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:45 pm
000 wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:34 pm
abuss368 wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:23 pm I am curious how many Bogleheads believe that Vanguard will eventually move to a recommended allocation (and change the Target and LifeStrategy funds) of US 50% and International 50%? Vanguard recommended 20% years ago, then 30%, and now 40%.

Then of course international bonds of 30% and US bonds of 70%. Vanguard recommended 20% and now 30%.
I doubt they'll ever go above world market cap.
Is world market cap presently 60% US and 40% International?
Here you go... https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... olio/vtwax
Many thanks! That fund is 60% US and 40% International.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
JimmyJammy
Posts: 252
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 1:08 pm

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by JimmyJammy »

Last time I checked, Vanguard's 4-fund Target Retirement Funds have a large portion allocated to International Stock.

VFORX (Target 2040) for example, has 33% in non-US Equity.

If you're giving up on international, you're taking a big stand against Vanguard's advice.
boogiehead
Posts: 206
Joined: Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:45 pm

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by boogiehead »

Has anyone done some in depth analysis on what's causing the suffering. Is it mostly Japan's two lost decades since Japan has the highest country exposure for the etf?
l1am
Posts: 400
Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2016 2:27 pm

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by l1am »

visualguy wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 11:55 am I don't know why it's selling "low". Ex-US P/E is currently higher than its historical average. The fact that the index hasn't gone anywhere in well over a decade doesn't mean that it's cheap - ex-US earnings stagnated, unlike US earnings.
I agree, viewing it as "low" is market timing.

To your second point, should I pull my money out of US energy stocks too? https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/VDE
000
Posts: 4052
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am
Location: Ursa Minor

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by 000 »

boogiehead wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:06 am Has anyone done some in depth analysis on what's causing the suffering. Is it mostly Japan's two lost decades since Japan has the highest country exposure for the etf?
Lack of large, innovative businesses is probably factor #1.
Adfmacro
Posts: 134
Joined: Fri May 17, 2019 8:12 pm

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by Adfmacro »

Going from international stock to very short term bonds is not chasing returns. It is trading uncertain low performance and volatility with certain low returns and no volatility. I might be wrong, but this seems to be more about adjusting from the accumulation phase to the distribution phase. I am a few years away yet, but it does not feel like it will be an easy shift for me. In the past a downturn meant an opportunity to buy low. In the future a downturn could mean selling low. For those of us not yet in the distribution phase, we have to be prepared for the shift before it happens. We have to be able to trust ourselves to stay the course.
EnjoyIt
Posts: 5317
Joined: Sun Dec 29, 2013 8:06 pm

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by EnjoyIt »

Adfmacro wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:02 am Going from international stock to very short term bonds is not chasing returns. It is trading uncertain low performance and volatility with certain low returns and no volatility. I might be wrong, but this seems to be more about adjusting from the accumulation phase to the distribution phase. I am a few years away yet, but it does not feel like it will be an easy shift for me. In the past a downturn meant an opportunity to buy low. In the future a downturn could mean selling low. For those of us not yet in the distribution phase, we have to be prepared for the shift before it happens. We have to be able to trust ourselves to stay the course.
If you sell a portion of your equities to go into a more stable asset class like bonds, then yeah, you are decreasing the risk in your portfolio. If you are picking just one asset class and selling it all off it feels more like market timing.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939&start=400#p5275418
flaccidsteele
Posts: 1339
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:42 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by flaccidsteele »

I don’t invest in international because Bogle didn’t

I’m glad I avoided it
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
stan1
Posts: 9535
Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2007 4:35 pm

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by stan1 »

flaccidsteele wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:02 am I don’t invest in international because Bogle didn’t

I’m glad I avoided it
Sorry to call you out, but your profile says you are in Canada. So are you saying you only invest in Canada?
flaccidsteele
Posts: 1339
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:42 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by flaccidsteele »

stan1 wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:06 am
flaccidsteele wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:02 am I don’t invest in international because Bogle didn’t

I’m glad I avoided it
Sorry to call you out, but your profile says you are in Canada. So are you saying you only invest in Canada?
I follow the Bogleheads definition of “International” because we’re posting on the Bogleheads forum

Make sense?

I can use the terms “ex-US” or “non-US” like John Bogle did, if that’s easier for you

https://youtu.be/P54trh0Rre8 (“Why Jack Bogle doesn’t own non-US”)

Jack Bogle: “I do not think you need to have international”

Clear enough for me
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
Post Reply