Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

[lostdog]

We are help investors one at a time transition to the Two Fund Portfolio.

To serve your mission better, I think what you really want to do is prevent investors from investing in international in the first place. I'm not so sure about the transitioning advice.

To sell low and buy high and then applaud them for it.

[visualguy]

I don't know why it's selling "low". Ex-US P/E is currently higher than its historical average. The fact that the index hasn't gone anywhere in well over a decade doesn't mean that it's cheap - ex-US earnings stagnated, unlike US earnings.

[rockstar]

An earlier poster (Actin?) to this thread asked:

"International investing is a catch 22. It has underperformed the past 13 years, so anyone that dumps it is performance chasing and if you're holding it because you think it's going to change, you're market timing."

Excellent observation for almost any investment. What's the universally approved holding period?

I like to hold for two years before making any decisions. Of course, if it drops below its 300 day moving average, I'm out.

[abuss368]

I am curious how many Bogleheads believe that Vanguard will eventually move to a recommended allocation (and change the Target and LifeStrategy funds) of US 50% and International 50%? Vanguard recommended 20% years ago, then 30%, and now 40%.

Then of course international bonds of 30% and US bonds of 70%. Vanguard recommended 20% and now 30%.

[000]

I am curious how many Bogleheads believe that Vanguard will eventually move to a recommended allocation (and change the Target and LifeStrategy funds) of US 50% and International 50%? Vanguard recommended 20% years ago, then 30%, and now 40%.

Then of course international bonds of 30% and US bonds of 70%. Vanguard recommended 20% and now 30%.

I doubt they'll ever go above world market cap.

[abuss368]

I am curious how many Bogleheads believe that Vanguard will eventually move to a recommended allocation (and change the Target and LifeStrategy funds) of US 50% and International 50%? Vanguard recommended 20% years ago, then 30%, and now 40%.

Then of course international bonds of 30% and US bonds of 70%. Vanguard recommended 20% and now 30%.

I doubt they'll ever go above world market cap.

Is world market cap presently 60% US and 40% International?

[000]

I am curious how many Bogleheads believe that Vanguard will eventually move to a recommended allocation (and change the Target and LifeStrategy funds) of US 50% and International 50%? Vanguard recommended 20% years ago, then 30%, and now 40%.

Then of course international bonds of 30% and US bonds of 70%. Vanguard recommended 20% and now 30%.

I doubt they'll ever go above world market cap.

Is world market cap presently 60% US and 40% International?

Here you go... https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... olio/vtwax

[abuss368]

I am curious how many Bogleheads believe that Vanguard will eventually move to a recommended allocation (and change the Target and LifeStrategy funds) of US 50% and International 50%? Vanguard recommended 20% years ago, then 30%, and now 40%.

Then of course international bonds of 30% and US bonds of 70%. Vanguard recommended 20% and now 30%.

I doubt they'll ever go above world market cap.

Is world market cap presently 60% US and 40% International?

Here you go... https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... olio/vtwax

Many thanks! That fund is 60% US and 40% International.

[JimmyJammy]

Last time I checked, Vanguard's 4-fund Target Retirement Funds have a large portion allocated to International Stock.

VFORX (Target 2040) for example, has 33% in non-US Equity.

If you're giving up on international, you're taking a big stand against Vanguard's advice.

[boogiehead]

Has anyone done some in depth analysis on what's causing the suffering. Is it mostly Japan's two lost decades since Japan has the highest country exposure for the etf?

[l1am]

I don't know why it's selling "low". Ex-US P/E is currently higher than its historical average. The fact that the index hasn't gone anywhere in well over a decade doesn't mean that it's cheap - ex-US earnings stagnated, unlike US earnings.

I agree, viewing it as "low" is market timing.

To your second point, should I pull my money out of US energy stocks too? https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/VDE

[000]

Has anyone done some in depth analysis on what's causing the suffering. Is it mostly Japan's two lost decades since Japan has the highest country exposure for the etf?

Lack of large, innovative businesses is probably factor #1.

[Adfmacro]

Going from international stock to very short term bonds is not chasing returns. It is trading uncertain low performance and volatility with certain low returns and no volatility. I might be wrong, but this seems to be more about adjusting from the accumulation phase to the distribution phase. I am a few years away yet, but it does not feel like it will be an easy shift for me. In the past a downturn meant an opportunity to buy low. In the future a downturn could mean selling low. For those of us not yet in the distribution phase, we have to be prepared for the shift before it happens. We have to be able to trust ourselves to stay the course.

[EnjoyIt]

Going from international stock to very short term bonds is not chasing returns. It is trading uncertain low performance and volatility with certain low returns and no volatility. I might be wrong, but this seems to be more about adjusting from the accumulation phase to the distribution phase. I am a few years away yet, but it does not feel like it will be an easy shift for me. In the past a downturn meant an opportunity to buy low. In the future a downturn could mean selling low. For those of us not yet in the distribution phase, we have to be prepared for the shift before it happens. We have to be able to trust ourselves to stay the course.

If you sell a portion of your equities to go into a more stable asset class like bonds, then yeah, you are decreasing the risk in your portfolio. If you are picking just one asset class and selling it all off it feels more like market timing.

[flaccidsteele]

I don’t invest in international because Bogle didn’t

I’m glad I avoided it

[stan1]

I don’t invest in international because Bogle didn’t

I’m glad I avoided it

Sorry to call you out, but your profile says you are in Canada. So are you saying you only invest in Canada?

[flaccidsteele]

I don’t invest in international because Bogle didn’t

I’m glad I avoided it

Sorry to call you out, but your profile says you are in Canada. So are you saying you only invest in Canada?

I follow the Bogleheads definition of “International” because we’re posting on the Bogleheads forum

Make sense?

I can use the terms “ex-US” or “non-US” like John Bogle did, if that’s easier for you

https://youtu.be/P54trh0Rre8 (“Why Jack Bogle doesn’t own non-US”)

Jack Bogle: “I do not think you need to have international”

Clear enough for me