Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

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cowdogman
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Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by cowdogman »

At the advice of Vanguard reps I have held VXUS shares for a long time--in the interest of diversification and balance. For a long time I have been pretty much the standard Vanguard three fund investor.

As stock prices recovered in the late spring/summer I slowly trimmed my VXUS holdings to zero--putting the money in very short term US Bond ETFs. I was tired of the VXUS mediocre returns. (I now wish of course that I had simply exchanged VXUS for VTI.)

When I mentioned what I did and why to a Vanguard rep I expected to get a stern talking to, but to my surprise she said something like "Yeah, we've been re-looking at our recommendation to diversify with VXUS."

So, now I am looking at ways to diversify internationally without having such broad international diversification that the overall returns will always be mediocre.

My current inclination is to invest in China Index ETFs like GXC or MCHI. I would likely not invest to the same extent as I was in VXUS, but probably a significant $ amount--and probably put the balance in VTI.

What do you think?
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Ben Mathew
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by Ben Mathew »

It think this is performance chasing, and one of the most dangerous things an investor can do. You should continue to hold international stocks, remain diversified, and not waver.

Also note that VXUS is selling for 17.7x earnings and VTSAX is selling for 27.5x earnings.
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by donaldfair71 »

I think you’ve just committed to being an expert on what’s “Good enough” for the rest of your investing life.

You know that VXUS isn’t it. But you now have to commit to another thing with the same unknowns you just left.

What did the Vanguard rep suggest?
000
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by 000 »

I've gone in the opposite direction, moving from VXUS to VEA (developed markets only). I am not interested in relying on the CCP to protect my investment.

I have also considered VSS (the ex-US small cap ETF) and specific country ETFs, but VEA is less expensive than all of that.
invest2bfree
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by invest2bfree »

Ultimately international just provides you a diversification which you may not need in your lifetime.

Until 1859 most people in USA never thought country will ever have a civil war and in 1860 we out of the blue went into civil way. Argentina\Russia\USa 150 years back was considered an emerging markets but you know rest of the story.

These changes happen suddenly and cannot be predicted. USA has been going strong for the last 5 decades but may not repeat its performance.

What will happen if all three parts of the government is under control of one party.
livesoft
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by livesoft »

cowdogman wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:56 pmWhen I mentioned what I did and why to a Vanguard rep I expected to get a stern talking to, but to my surprise she said something like "Yeah, we've been re-looking at our recommendation to diversify with VXUS."
[...]
What do you think?
I think the V rep was agreeable because that's what their training is about. If you have ever read the book "A Fool and His Money: The Odyssey of an Average Investor" by John Rothchild then you saw the same thing in action. Basically, he tested various schemes and advisors with a pot of money. All of them asked him questions and reinforced whatever he did as a positive thing no matter how crazy and outrageous it was.

As in, "I'd like to trade options to make lots of money!"
"Excellent idea, we can help you do that! And you will make a lot of money!"

Or "I'd like to stay invested in CDs!"
"Excellent idea, we can help you do that! And you will make a lot of money!"

Or "I'd like to swing trade stocks!"
"Excellent idea, we can help you do that! And you will make a lot of money!"

Or "Maybe some growth mutuals funds are for me?"
"Excellent idea, we can help you do that! And you will make a lot of money!"
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brad.clarkston
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by brad.clarkston »

cowdogman wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:56 pm My current inclination is to invest in China Index ETFs like GXC or MCHI. I would likely not invest to the same extent as I was in VXUS, but probably a significant $ amount--and probably put the balance in VTI.

What do you think?
You had me going until you fell of the big old performance chasing cliff with GXC/MCHI.
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by brad.clarkston »

000 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:08 pm I've gone in the opposite direction, moving from VXUS to VEA (developed markets only). I am not interested in relying on the CCP to protect my investment.

I have also considered VSS (the ex-US small cap ETF) and specific country ETFs, but VEA is less expensive than all of that.
That's something interesting to talk about.

I held VSS for awhile it's an under performing stinker in my book but at least VEA tracked well with VXUS until Feb/March.
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by nisiprius »

livesoft wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:16 pm
cowdogman wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:56 pmWhen I mentioned what I did and why to a Vanguard rep I expected to get a stern talking to, but to my surprise she said something like "Yeah, we've been re-looking at our recommendation to diversify with VXUS."
[...]
What do you think?
I think the V rep was agreeable because that's what their training is about. If you have ever read the book "A Fool and His Money: The Odyssey of an Average Investor" by John Rothchild then you saw the same thing in action. Basically, he tested various schemes and advisors with a pot of money. All of them asked him questions and reinforced whatever he did as a positive thing no matter how crazy and outrageous it was.

As in, "I'd like to trade options to make lots of money!"
"Excellent idea, we can help you do that! And you will make a lot of money!"

Or "I'd like to stay invested in CDs!"
"Excellent idea, we can help you do that! And you will make a lot of money!"

Or "I'd like to swing trade stocks!"
"Excellent idea, we can help you do that! And you will make a lot of money!"

Or "Maybe some growth mutuals funds are for me?"
"Excellent idea, we can help you do that! And you will make a lot of money!"
I personally experienced that years ago in the days (pre-Internet) when I "had a broker," placed orders by telephone, and discussed investment ideas with my broker. I don't recall that he said "and you will make a lot of money," but he certainly always approved whatever I wanted to do, and would give confirming reasons. Often they were of the form "a lot of my clients do that," without mentioning that a lot of his clients probably did the opposite...

He also liked to seduce me into making predictions--"so, what do you think XYZ might do?" and if I said it might go up he would have suggestions about investments that would do well if XYZ went up.
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samsoes
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by samsoes »

000 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:08 pm I've gone in the opposite direction, moving from VXUS to VEA (developed markets only). I am not interested in relying on the CCP to protect my investment.

I have also considered VSS (the ex-US small cap ETF) and specific country ETFs, but VEA is less expensive than all of that.
CCP?

What does the Community College of Philadelphia have to do with VXUS?
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Post by inverter »

samsoes wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:36 pm
000 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:08 pm I've gone in the opposite direction, moving from VXUS to VEA (developed markets only). I am not interested in relying on the CCP to protect my investment.

I have also considered VSS (the ex-US small cap ETF) and specific country ETFs, but VEA is less expensive than all of that.
CCP?

What does the Community College of Philadelphia have to do with VXUS?
Chinese Communist Party
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by 000 »

brad.clarkston wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:35 pm I held VSS for awhile it's an under performing stinker in my book but at least VEA tracked well with VXUS until Feb/March.
Every time I think about adding VSS, it's as a 10% small cap tilt within a 40% ex-US allocation, which would be just 4% of stocks. It's not worth the effort to maintain a 4% tilt (other than in some individual stock or leveraged position), so I haven't pulled the trigger. Even a 20% tilt would be an 8% position. So I have taken no action and stayed the course.

I do think VSS is more "different" from VTI than VXUS or VEA.
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by Actin »

International investing is a catch 22. It has underperformed the past 13 years, so anyone that dumps it is performance chasing and if you're holding it because you think it's going to change, you're market timing.

I can tell you that you're better off with VXUS than you will be investing in China.
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Post by Steve Reading »

Actin wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:03 pm International investing is a catch 22. It has underperformed the past 13 years, so anyone that dumps it is performance chasing and if you're holding it because you think it's going to change, you're market timing.
Holding onto your international investments, regardless of its recent returns, is not market timing in any way, shape, or form.
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by Actin »

Steve Reading wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:12 pm
Actin wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:03 pm International investing is a catch 22. It has underperformed the past 13 years, so anyone that dumps it is performance chasing and if you're holding it because you think it's going to change, you're market timing.
Holding onto your international investments, regardless of its recent returns, is not market timing in any way, shape, or form.
Here's a rhetorical question. How many years of a fund underperforming does it take before it can be considered a bad investment compared to others?
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Post by MotoTrojan »

I don’t hold VXUS but I do hold FNDC and IVAL, both which provide small/deep-value exposure. Thanks for your contribution to turning ex-US around. Now that you’ve capitulated it’s bound to explode.
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Post by drk »

Actin wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:32 pm Here's a rhetorical question. How many years of a fund underperforming does it take before it can be considered a bad investment compared to others?
Rhetorically, I would encourage people to avoid outcome bias.
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InvestorNewb
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Post by InvestorNewb »

I regret VXUS too. All new money (except dividends) will be directed to other investments.
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)
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Post by visualguy »

cowdogman wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:56 pm At the advice of Vanguard reps I have held VXUS shares for a long time--in the interest of diversification and balance. For a long time I have been pretty much the standard Vanguard three fund investor.

As stock prices recovered in the late spring/summer I slowly trimmed my VXUS holdings to zero--putting the money in very short term US Bond ETFs. I was tired of the VXUS mediocre returns. (I now wish of course that I had simply exchanged VXUS for VTI.)

When I mentioned what I did and why to a Vanguard rep I expected to get a stern talking to, but to my surprise she said something like "Yeah, we've been re-looking at our recommendation to diversify with VXUS."

So, now I am looking at ways to diversify internationally without having such broad international diversification that the overall returns will always be mediocre.

My current inclination is to invest in China Index ETFs like GXC or MCHI. I would likely not invest to the same extent as I was in VXUS, but probably a significant $ amount--and probably put the balance in VTI.

What do you think?
Many here who invest in foreign stock markets use different investments than VXUS or similar. Moving away from ex-US indexing makes sense to me since it hasn't really worked well as an investment in the long run - poor returns with high volatility. There's more than enough history there to make that decision easy in my view. The question is what to do instead. You can go all-US as some here do, or start a thread to ask about what alternative international investments people use.
Last edited by visualguy on Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by lostdog »

InvestorNewb wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:48 pm I regret VXUS too. All new money (except dividends) will be directed to other investments.
This is the second thread this week.

People need protection from themselves from selling low and buying high or just giving up on it.

Giving into emotions and bad investing behavior is a mistake. What a joke.

:oops:
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Post by lostdog »

Ben Mathew wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:03 pm It think this is performance chasing, and one of the most dangerous things an investor can do. You should continue to hold international stocks, remain diversified, and not waver.

Also note that VXUS is selling for 17.7x earnings and VTSAX is selling for 27.5x earnings.
+1

Glad it's not my money. People can invest how they want but novice investors need to see the OP's huge mistake.
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Post by InvestorNewb »

lostdog wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:53 pm
InvestorNewb wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:48 pm I regret VXUS too. All new money (except dividends) will be directed to other investments.
This is the second thread this week.

People need protection from themselves from selling low and buying high or just giving up on it.

Giving into emotions and bad investing behavior is a mistake. What a joke.

:oops:
I haven't sold any of my existing shares but the returns have been terrible. I can't wait a few lifetimes for the fund to generate a decent return.
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)
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Post by lostdog »

InvestorNewb wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:56 pm
lostdog wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:53 pm
InvestorNewb wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:48 pm I regret VXUS too. All new money (except dividends) will be directed to other investments.
This is the second thread this week.

People need protection from themselves from selling low and buying high or just giving up on it.

Giving into emotions and bad investing behavior is a mistake. What a joke.

:oops:
I haven't sold any of my existing shares but the returns have been terrible. I can't wait a few lifetimes for the fund to generate a decent return.

What if in a year it starts to out perform? You'll start buying high?
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Post by Tingting1013 »

I present the following facts without comment:

1. From 1997 through 2019, Vanguard Total International has beaten Vanguard TSM 10 out of 23 years (43%)

2. The most recent year that Total International beat TSM was 2017.

3. Total International beat TSM for six years in a row from 2002 through 2007.

4. TSM’s latest win streak is only two years long.

5. The years when Total International beat TSM, it beat by an average of 8% total return.

6. The years when TSM beat Total International, it was by an average of 11% total return.
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Post by InvestorNewb »

lostdog wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:58 pm
InvestorNewb wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:56 pm
lostdog wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:53 pm
InvestorNewb wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:48 pm I regret VXUS too. All new money (except dividends) will be directed to other investments.
This is the second thread this week.

People need protection from themselves from selling low and buying high or just giving up on it.

Giving into emotions and bad investing behavior is a mistake. What a joke.

:oops:
I haven't sold any of my existing shares but the returns have been terrible. I can't wait a few lifetimes for the fund to generate a decent return.

What if in a year it starts to out perform? You'll start buying high?
I'll just keep reinvesting the dividends back into VXUS. It makes up about 23% of my portfolio but I'm not comfortable putting new money into it given the poor return and risk rating. My guess is that when VXUS does well, VTI will do well also but to a different degree.

I'm sure that VXUS will eventually outperform VTI. However, by then, the opportunity cost of not investing that money elsewhere will probably exceed the gains provided by VXUS.

Warren Buffett said something like "Never, ever bet against America.” I think this advice will stay true for my lifetime. I know that arguing from authority is a fallacy but it's foolish not to listen to one of the greatest investors of all time.
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)
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Post by drk »

InvestorNewb wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:13 pm Warren Buffett said something like "Never, ever bet against America.” I think this advice will stay true for my lifetime. I know that arguing from authority is a fallacy but it's foolish not to listen to one of the greatest investors of all time.
Buying international stocks isn’t a bet against America because the economy is not a zero-sum game.
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Post by absolute zero »

These threads, while somewhat painful to read, are always interesting to me. They represent excellent examples of the fact that some people just don’t have the right DNA to be good investors. Fortunately, there are many attributes that are associated with building wealth. Some people can make quite a few behavioral errors in their investing career and still make it out just fine.
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Post by mrspock »

cowdogman wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:56 pm At the advice of Vanguard reps I have held VXUS shares for a long time--in the interest of diversification and balance. For a long time I have been pretty much the standard Vanguard three fund investor.

As stock prices recovered in the late spring/summer I slowly trimmed my VXUS holdings to zero--putting the money in very short term US Bond ETFs. I was tired of the VXUS mediocre returns. (I now wish of course that I had simply exchanged VXUS for VTI.)

When I mentioned what I did and why to a Vanguard rep I expected to get a stern talking to, but to my surprise she said something like "Yeah, we've been re-looking at our recommendation to diversify with VXUS."

So, now I am looking at ways to diversify internationally without having such broad international diversification that the overall returns will always be mediocre.

My current inclination is to invest in China Index ETFs like GXC or MCHI. I would likely not invest to the same extent as I was in VXUS, but probably a significant $ amount--and probably put the balance in VTI.

What do you think?
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Post by 7eight9 »

livesoft wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:16 pm
cowdogman wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:56 pmWhen I mentioned what I did and why to a Vanguard rep I expected to get a stern talking to, but to my surprise she said something like "Yeah, we've been re-looking at our recommendation to diversify with VXUS."
[...]
What do you think?
I think the V rep was agreeable because that's what their training is about. If you have ever read the book "A Fool and His Money: The Odyssey of an Average Investor" by John Rothchild then you saw the same thing in action. Basically, he tested various schemes and advisors with a pot of money. All of them asked him questions and reinforced whatever he did as a positive thing no matter how crazy and outrageous it was.

As in, "I'd like to trade options to make lots of money!"
"Excellent idea, we can help you do that! And you will make a lot of money!"

Or "I'd like to stay invested in CDs!"
"Excellent idea, we can help you do that! And you will make a lot of money!"

Or "I'd like to swing trade stocks!"
"Excellent idea, we can help you do that! And you will make a lot of money!"

Or "Maybe some growth mutuals funds are for me?"
"Excellent idea, we can help you do that! And you will make a lot of money!"
Pretty much what Michael Lewis describes in Liar's Poker.

Now I admit, even for a geek, it was a little embarrassing to let investors believe their white magic. But as long as the chartists placed their bets with me, my jungle guide explained, the reasoning of our customers was not for me to question. Just the opposite. Only days after landing in my new job I found myself praising such statements from investors as "I was looking at the ten-day moving average last night, and it is a perfect reverse duck tail and pheasant. Let's bet the ranch." At this juncture my role was only to shout encouragement: Yeah! Do it!
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absolute zero
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by absolute zero »

I also find it interesting that I would be extremely uncomfortable in a US-only portfolio. And yet the OP (and many others on this forum) are extremely uncomfortable holding any international.

We all have a “default portfolio” in our heads. It seems the trick is not just to educate ourselves on the optimal portfolio from a risk/return and diversification standpoint, but also to recognize (after that education) what our own default portfolio is. If it’s 100% US stock, then there’s a good chance that it’s best to just stick with that, even if it’s less diversified. Perhaps a suboptimal portfolio that an investor truly believes in will benefit him in the future, since it will minimize costly behavioral mistakes (like dumping an underperformer).
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Post by 000 »

cowdogman wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:56 pm When I mentioned what I did and why to a Vanguard rep I expected to get a stern talking to, but to my surprise she said something like "Yeah, we've been re-looking at our recommendation to diversify with VXUS."
If what she said is true, I wonder if Vanguard will start pushing their international active funds.

Maybe International Core Stock, with a 0.45% ER and -1.90% YTD performance1 versus the benchmark.

Or Emerging Markets Select Stock, with a 0.93% ER and -3.12% 1YR performance1 versus the benchmark.

Or International Growth, with a 0.43% ER and Tesla as the #2 holding.

[1] Despite having very familiar names from the index in the top 10 holdings.
Last edited by 000 on Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Post by GreendaleCC »

I am buying your ex-US equity. Keep it coming!
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by VAslim16 »

VXUS holder here. Has been sad watching it do nothing while VTI has soared. Thought about doing what you have but have not and (most likely) will not. Follow the plan is what "they" say. I will continue to do so. 41 so (hopefully) lots of time to see international make up ground.
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by dumbmoney »

Past returns are hard facts, while the future is wild speculation. So it's natural to latch on to past returns. Fund marketing presents them as if they were vitally important. But they really are irrelevant.

Bond investors are less likely to make this mistake because the return is more predictable. A low yielding bond doesn't inspire greed just because past returns were good. The low yield is staring you in the face.
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Post by Hyperchicken »

I've been through this, held some VTSNX (institutional version of VXUS/VTIAX) in my 401(k).

I read every thread and every reason here on this forum why it is a good idea to continue holding it, still saw no reason to do so, and exchanged all of it into FXAIX (S&P 500 fund). This was on February 11th, 2020.

I know this in principle is a wrong move. Oh well, I made my choice and will deal with the consquences.
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by roth evangelist »

I'm in my late 20s. I started investing with a Betterment Roth IRA this year, so I have a heavy international holding (~24% VEA/14% VWO, which is basically VXUS with a stronger EM tilt). When I start my wife's Vanguard Roth IRA and transfer my Roth to Vanguard, they will be 80% VTSAX and 20% VTIAX. That is currently less international than the total world index, but I can always rebalance to increase my international holdings if I feel so inclined. I think it just depends on how old you are. I really believe my portfolio will be well served by holding international by the time I'm in my 70s. For those much older, they might not see the benefits of international holdings. At the end of the day, no one knows. But I believe holding some international and not worrying about their low recent returns will serve almost every investor.
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by Hector »

If you had invested in total US stock market starting from 1999, would you have exchanged it for international starting from 2009?
US stock market returned -0.81% and ex-US returned 1.95% (adjusted to inflation) during that time.
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by XacTactX »

OP, I disagree with the framework that is being used to make this decision because from what I have seen the consensus is that the best way to forecast future returns is by looking current valuations. Most of the companies that publish capital market assumptions for U.S. and international believe that International will outperform the U.S. in the next 10 years. You are trying to make a decision based on past returns but you can not invest in the past, you can only invest in the future.

Vanguard U.S. 4.9% vs. International 8.4% https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/ ... ctober2020

Blackrock U.S. 5.8% vs. International 7.0% https://blackrockblog-blanktemplate-ass ... USD_10.pdf

JPMorgan Chase U.S. 7.2% EAFE 9.2% https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm ... %20USD.PDF
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lostdog
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by lostdog »

absolute zero wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:21 pm These threads, while somewhat painful to read, are always interesting to me. They represent excellent examples of the fact that some people just don’t have the right DNA to be good investors. Fortunately, there are many attributes that are associated with building wealth. Some people can make quite a few behavioral errors in their investing career and still make it out just fine.
+1

The other painful thing to see is that other encourage it. 👎
World Market Weight Equity || 33x Expenses
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Starchild
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by Starchild »

I use VWIGX (Vanguard Int'l Growth) for International exposure and have been happy with its performance. I don't like the total int'l index because I don't want to buy every piece of junk out there, but that's just my strategy, just like others here who's strategy is to own all of it. At the end of the day, it's good that you made your own decision you're happy with.
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vineviz
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by vineviz »

mrspock wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:28 pm On behalf of the two fund Bogleheads, welcome to the fold. The water is warm. Enjoy. Sleep well again once more.
I seem to recall a story about a pot and a frog that also involved warm water, at least near the beginning.

Maybe I’ll look it up and report back how it ends ....
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch
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Brianmcg321
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by Brianmcg321 »

Starchild wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:59 am I use VWIGX (Vanguard Int'l Growth) for International exposure and have been happy with its performance. I don't like the total int'l index because I don't want to buy every piece of junk out there, but that's just my strategy, just like others here who's strategy is to own all of it. At the end of the day, it's good that you made your own decision you're happy with.
Does it bother you that all the performance in the International Growth fund can be attributed to companies like Amazon, Tesla etc.
Rules to investing: | 1. Don't lose money. | 2. Don't forget rule number 1.
Tamalak
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by Tamalak »

Lo, and when the last VXUS holder giveth up on it, on that day it shall finally start making some fricking money
occambogle
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by occambogle »

Brianmcg321 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:15 am Does it bother you that all the performance in the International Growth fund can be attributed to companies like Amazon, Tesla etc.
As discussed in this thread I do agree they need to be clearer about the US component, for sure, but as it's no more than 10-15% it doesn't really bother me, I just perhaps look at it as 15% less international. But the performance has been stellar this year and I don't think is accounted for only be the US parts, though it would be interesting if someone was able to actually quantify the US vs Intl contribution to results. For sure it's a play on growth vs value/blend though.
That said the international options in my 401k were very limited, so my choices were limited anyway (no total international at all, for example).
rkhusky
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by rkhusky »

If you decide to divest of Int'l because of recent performance, you need to commit to never buying it again. The decision needs to be a fundamental change in your investing strategy that is not reversed in the future. Chasing past performance and buying high/selling low is a recipe for substantially reduced returns. I think everyone should be allowed one mulligan.
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simplesimon
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by simplesimon »

When you buy VTI these days you're basically saying "I'm going to take 15% of that money and buy three stocks."
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Starchild
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by Starchild »

Brianmcg321 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:15 am
Starchild wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:59 am I use VWIGX (Vanguard Int'l Growth) for International exposure and have been happy with its performance. I don't like the total int'l index because I don't want to buy every piece of junk out there, but that's just my strategy, just like others here who's strategy is to own all of it. At the end of the day, it's good that you made your own decision you're happy with.
Does it bother you that all the performance in the International Growth fund can be attributed to companies like Amazon, Tesla etc.
No. The fund managers were smart enough to add them to the portfolio, understanding theirs, and other global company's growth potential. They're also not the only companies in the fund that have had fantastic returns. Imo, it's a well managed fund, with a low expense rate, with a solid track record dating back to 1981. Long term hold for me. Will it keep up with this year's performance? Probably not, but it's done what a managed fund is supposed to do during a bear market imo.
e5116
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by e5116 »

I've been holding VTIRX (International Value) based on the nice research on here from 10 years ago about the slices optimization and it has performed pretty terribly (-13% YTD, -5% 1-year, -2% annualized 3-year, 4% annualized 5-year, 3.6% annualized 10-year, 3.6% annualized 15-year) ....but I'm holding on. New positions going to Total Stock & International though....
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by TomatoTomahto »

GreendaleCC wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:43 pm I am buying your ex-US equity. Keep it coming!
Yeah. Over the past 3 years, international (a variety of flavors) has returned over 14% annualized for me. Good enough. Any future investments will be aligned with having a global market weight.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
hnd
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Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Post by hnd »

Starchild wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:59 am I use VWIGX (Vanguard Int'l Growth) for International exposure and have been happy with its performance. I don't like the total int'l index because I don't want to buy every piece of junk out there, but that's just my strategy, just like others here who's strategy is to own all of it. At the end of the day, it's good that you made your own decision you're happy with.
My 401k has VXUS and outside of that I hold VEA and VWIGX in my Roth. My international is currently sitting at 15% and I hold all 3 equally or at least hope to.

But further inspection into VWIGX is that its growth is because of its 14% US holdings. the Largest Namely Amazon.

if you took VXUS at 100% vs VXUS 95%/AMZN 5% over the past 10 years, your CAGR is almost 2% a year better. So don't be completely enamored with VWIGX's performance. IMO its kind of cheating.
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