What to do, if anything, about a single stock (XOM)

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TresBelle65
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Joined: Sun Apr 12, 2015 2:44 pm

What to do, if anything, about a single stock (XOM)

Post by TresBelle65 »

In the early 90s, as a young'un, I started investing in the market. My first purchase was through the DRIP program of Exxon. I continued to invest and re-invest dividends, through the years. About 15 years ago, I stopped buying with outside money, only re-investing dividends.

I've paid far for more for it, over the decades, than it's now worth...maybe 70-80% lower than it's peak? (roughly)

A few years ago, I dropped out of the DRIP program and moved the shares to my brokerage account - where I just stare at it - neither adding to the position, nor selling.

I found Bogleheads about a decade ago, so XOM remains the only single stock in my portfolio.

I had planned to sell it in retirement (2021) in order to buy another vehicle, but the price has sunk so low that it seems more appropriate perhaps for TLH.

I hope it goes without saying that no one knows the future direction of the stock price nor the direction of that sector, but I am wondering if I am overlooking something, maybe there is some kind of weird sentimentality here in letting go of the first stock I ever bought?.

Can anyone think of one good reason to keep holding XOM? there are the dividends, I suppose.
CardioMD
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Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:40 am

Re: What to do, if anything, about a single stock (XOM)

Post by CardioMD »

I cannot think of one.

Maybe take the dividends each quarter (while they last) and blow it on lottery tickets in the hopes of XOM finally paying off? That’s a joke of course :)
“The stock market is a giant distraction from the business of investing.” -Jack Bogle
balbrec2
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Joined: Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:03 pm

Re: What to do, if anything, about a single stock (XOM)

Post by balbrec2 »

Don't be sentimental about a stock. It doesn't know you own it. Sell and be done.
Hopefully you kept excellent records for your taxes. Drip programs can be messy.
Good luck
Valuethinker
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Re: What to do, if anything, about a single stock (XOM)

Post by Valuethinker »

Would you be in a lower tax bracket in retirement,?

Conversely would the capital loss be more valuable now?

The behavioural finance research suggests reframing a sale from a capital loss to a gain via lower taxes helps us to make the sacrifice.
tibbitts
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Re: What to do, if anything, about a single stock (XOM)

Post by tibbitts »

I don't really understand the question in terms of selling. Obviously if I had a large loss I would capture it. That's really a different question than what to replace this investment with. Even if I was to replace it with the same stock, or maybe a sector fund in the same sector, I'd still realize the loss.
Topic Author
TresBelle65
Posts: 280
Joined: Sun Apr 12, 2015 2:44 pm

Re: What to do, if anything, about a single stock (XOM)

Post by TresBelle65 »

Would you be in a lower tax bracket in retirement,?

Yes, quite a bit lower, hence it seems capturing the loss would be more valuable this year, than selling next year.

I realize this may be more obvious to others more accustomed to selling. I am a lifelong accumulator, finally beginning to shed or spend from the portfolio.


Thanks
TXGator
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Re: What to do, if anything, about a single stock (XOM)

Post by TXGator »

As a former employee who held nearly 100% of my 401k in XOM by trusting the senior managers on how well XOM does long term - rip the band-aid off.

If you're still into O&G as this point I'd TLH for CVX or XLE so you can get XOM exposure without the 100% risk the dividend is cut
Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: What to do, if anything, about a single stock (XOM)

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

TresBelle65 wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:47 am Would you be in a lower tax bracket in retirement,?

Yes, quite a bit lower, hence it seems capturing the loss would be more valuable this year, than selling next year.

I realize this may be more obvious to others more accustomed to selling. I am a lifelong accumulator, finally beginning to shed or spend from the portfolio.


Thanks
I own it, but I would not hesitate to take a TLH opportunity and if you have a specific need for the money don’t buy back into it.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions
EnjoyIt
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Re: What to do, if anything, about a single stock (XOM)

Post by EnjoyIt »

TresBelle65 wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:47 am Would you be in a lower tax bracket in retirement,?

Yes, quite a bit lower, hence it seems capturing the loss would be more valuable this year, than selling next year.

I realize this may be more obvious to others more accustomed to selling. I am a lifelong accumulator, finally beginning to shed or spend from the portfolio.


Thanks
At the very least sell enough to cover any capital gains you may have this year if any and sell at a minimum to get $3k in losses to deduct from your income.

I am sad to say I still have XOM as well but had it for a profit before this recent drop. I used to be a dividend growth investor prior to a boglehead. I was hoping to sell it when my capital gains become 15% and not 23.8 which is where I am at now.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939&start=400#p5275418
Topic Author
TresBelle65
Posts: 280
Joined: Sun Apr 12, 2015 2:44 pm

Re: What to do, if anything, about a single stock (XOM)

Post by TresBelle65 »


If you're still into O&G as this point I'd TLH
. O&G = oil and gas? I have been wondering about the reliability of the XOM dividend.

I shudder whenever I think of employees holding large 401K positions in employer stock. Flashbacks to Enron and Worldcom stories in the news.
TimeTheMarket
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Re: What to do, if anything, about a single stock (XOM)

Post by TimeTheMarket »

I bought some XOM in March. It's a turd. I should sell it and I advise you to do that. Don't get emotionally attached to it. I'm not selling mine, because I'm just going to rage-hold it until it goes up, come hell or high water. I bought a trivial amount so this sort of emotional silliness from me I'm okay with.
Username is not serious :)
btenny
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Re: What to do, if anything, about a single stock (XOM)

Post by btenny »

I am another long term holder of XOM. I bought it in the early 1980s and it did great for decades. Now it is my last single stock. My holdings are pretty large and were over 5% of my portfolio. I have wondered and thought about selling for a long time. Basically I have been disappointed in the stock performance and the company since they started borrowing BIG $$ to fund growth into natural gas and LNG stuff. But in my case I will have to pay big cap gain taxes if I sell so I held on.

Now the value has dropped a LOT, maybe 50% from my previous $75 guess as a fair price if they could cover the dividend. But everything I read says they do not have the cash flow. So I think they have to cut the dividend a lot and this will drop the stock price more. So I am thinking lots of bad words and thinking that right now in 2020 might be good time to just sell and pay the taxes.

Anyone else think like this???? Comments????
Rudedog
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Re: What to do, if anything, about a single stock (XOM)

Post by Rudedog »

I too own XOM. Its less than 2% of my portfolio. I'm going to hold it for now. Most cars and trucks still run on gasoline, XOM has interests in natural gas, etc, etc. Hoping it will go up, it won't cost me much to hold it, just the frustration of looking at my paper loss every day. If it's still in the dumps in December, I may sell it to take the tax loss.
raiderjkwong
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Re: What to do, if anything, about a single stock (XOM)

Post by raiderjkwong »

I own a couple oil and gas pipelines. I bought most of my shares during the crash in 08 and this year so I am only down 5% but I am getting a dividend yield of of 10-12% so I am keeping them. Over 10 years ago I bought Kinder Morgan (KMI) and I have lost 70% of its value so I sold out of my position this year and reinvested it in another stock. Why? I don't see the price going back up 70% in the near or far term (1-5 years). Depending on your loss in XOM, if you have lost over 50% I don't see XOM recovering in the near or far term (1-5 years). Its better to see your position and invest it in another stock that will grow. You can also keep a 1/2 of it and sell the other 1/2 as a compromise. Its hard to sell a stock that you have held long term and you genuinely believe in the company. But facts are facts and the price of oil/gas will be very volatile for the next few years to come.
illumination
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Re: What to do, if anything, about a single stock (XOM)

Post by illumination »

Some of the best investment advice I've gotten is "would you buy this today"? If the answer is no, you probably should sell it.

That being said, I do believe energy stocks are oversold and near a bottom, but I've thought that before and they went lower. Just not something I want to speculate on and jump in.

I did own some energy stocks before going more Boglehead, and I'm SO glad I sold them all.
Annabel Lee
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Re: What to do, if anything, about a single stock (XOM)

Post by Annabel Lee »

TimeTheMarket wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:01 pm I bought some XOM in March. It's a turd. I should sell it and I advise you to do that. Don't get emotionally attached to it. I'm not selling mine, because I'm just going to rage-hold it until it goes up, come hell or high water. I bought a trivial amount so this sort of emotional silliness from me I'm okay with.
Lol. I did the same thing at a $50 entry point, and am also rage-holding my minimal share until it goes up. Which could very well be 2023.

Dividend investing isn’t dead, they said. :oops:
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