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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 5:09 pm
by RetiredCSProf
Be prepared for volatility. I've done well in semiconductors -- but the worst year was down 50%. In the past decade, I've had good returns in Global Technology funds, such as the IXN ETF.

A few stock suggestions for the next decade:
Nio -- manufactures electric cars in China
NextEra Energy Partners (NEP) -- utility stock for green energy
BigCommerce -- or the next big e-commerce stock to compete with Shopify
Zoom video communications or its next competitor
DocuSign or other technologies that facilitate online transactions
Travel and leisure stocks

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2020 8:52 pm
by DesertMan
Pepper11 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:42 pm HACAX
That's an interesting growth fund. Looks like it has a good history. I do think you could do better by getting rid of Uber and some of the Healthcare stocks like so...

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... on38_2=100

Here is another version with some of the newer companies removed so you can go back a few years.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... on38_2=100

Disclosure: I own some of version 1

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2020 9:35 pm
by fmhealth
As already mentioned earlier, I would second SPCE. I believe that space tourism could be a tremendous investment opportunity. It's also a "Robin Hood" play that many times results in outlandish returns. Also, take a look at ROKU. It has the potential be a prime T/O candidate that would be a bolt-on acquisition for Apple, Amazon or Netflix.

In terms of full disclosure, I have significant positions in these two stocks for both trading as well as LT growth.

Be Well,
fmhealth

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2020 9:48 pm
by JonnyDVM
BuddyJet wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:11 am My standard line was that when I want to gamble, I go to Vegas. At minimum, I'd get free drinks and know quickly if I won.
They aren’t giving free drinks out right now. Plus it just isn’t as much fun these days with all the new rules. This is the only way to get a real fix.

Penny stocks or scour Wall Street bets on Reddit and maybe you get lucky picking the right autist to coat-tail. I don’t have a penny stick to offer a gamble on.sorry. The last one I was in went belly up. 😵

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2020 9:51 pm
by softwaregeek
I'm doing employee options in a startup.

But that's my life, not an investment.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2020 9:54 pm
by DesertMan
fmhealth wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 9:35 pm , take a look at ROKU. It has the potential be a prime T/O candidate that would be a bolt-on acquisition for Apple, Amazon or Netflix.
Roku was a better takeover candidate when it was a neutral streaming platform. Now it is competing with everyone else to bundle channels. Technology wise, they are falling behind Amazon, Google and Apple while trying to compete with them. We are a Roku house but may move to another platform soon to get channels that aren't available on Roku.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:05 pm
by sheroo
Would Snowflake (SNOW) be a possible moonshot?
IPO may be tomorrow.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:47 pm
by JoeRetire
novemberrain wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:54 am Question : If I am willing to lose this entire play money, but hoping for a lottery ticket of sorts that will net me a 100x return over the next decade, what are your suggestions ?
Lottery tickets.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:08 pm
by anoop
sheroo wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:05 pm Would Snowflake (SNOW) be a possible moonshot?
IPO may be tomorrow.
I think it's pricing in at $25B or so market cap. Possible moonshot if it gets to $2.5T in 10 years, which is possible with a little assistance from the fed. Problem is unless you have access to IPO prices, you might have to pay a bit more to play. It is already up from where Buffett bought ($80) and is now at ~$100. My guess it gets to $200-$250 as soon as it begins trading.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:28 pm
by toocold
Are you talking public or private markets?

You can always put some money in a VC.

For public markets, look at new IPOs that have the potential to overhaul current markets or create new ones: This could include Coursera, SpaceX, Instacart, UiPath, Reddit, Palantir, Impossible, Unity, Gingko. Not all of these will succeed, but they are trying to redefine areas and some may hit that threshold.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:56 pm
by gwe67
JoeRetire wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:47 pm
novemberrain wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:54 am Question : If I am willing to lose this entire play money, but hoping for a lottery ticket of sorts that will net me a 100x return over the next decade, what are your suggestions ?
Lottery tickets.
Something between lottery tickets and roulette. Maybe long-shot sports betting. Washington Nationals are 1:100 to win world series.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:02 am
by sheroo
anoop wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:08 pm
sheroo wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:05 pm Would Snowflake (SNOW) be a possible moonshot?
IPO may be tomorrow.
I think it's pricing in at $25B or so market cap. Possible moonshot if it gets to $2.5T in 10 years, which is possible with a little assistance from the fed. Problem is unless you have access to IPO prices, you might have to pay a bit more to play. It is already up from where Buffett bought ($80) and is now at ~$100. My guess it gets to $200-$250 as soon as it begins trading.
Looks like IPO share price just shot up to $120 :shock:

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:57 am
by anoop
sheroo wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:02 am
anoop wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:08 pm
sheroo wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:05 pm Would Snowflake (SNOW) be a possible moonshot?
IPO may be tomorrow.
I think it's pricing in at $25B or so market cap. Possible moonshot if it gets to $2.5T in 10 years, which is possible with a little assistance from the fed. Problem is unless you have access to IPO prices, you might have to pay a bit more to play. It is already up from where Buffett bought ($80) and is now at ~$100. My guess it gets to $200-$250 as soon as it begins trading.
Looks like IPO share price just shot up to $120 :shock:
Currently trading at ~$280 with market cap of $60B. Buffett just made a 250% return on his investment in < 1 week. Anyway, to get 100x return on this, getting in now as a "visionary" means you expect it to get to a market cap of $6T. Powell's statements this afternoon should keep things firmly on track.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:51 pm
by SwampDonkey
My favorite sleeper stock right now is Mercado Libre (MELI). If you combine Amazon, Paypal, and a few others into a single company, this is what MELI is....only in South America and still in the early stages. Strong management team, clear vision and execution (so far), investments from some major US companies, and a market cap that isn't outrageous (~$50B).

IF they continue their growth story I could easily see them hitting $500B in 10-15 years.

Disclosure: I bought into the company in March when they dropped to $550, they're currently around $1k/share. I expect continued volatility but have no intention of selling anytime this decade.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:59 pm
by SwampDonkey
Another big risk/big reward would be to buy baskets of stocks from currently troubled industries. Specifically the airlines and the cruise industry.

You could have a cruise basket made up of the three majors, all currently down a ton. If they recover, huge profits for you.

You could have an airline basket made up of the ~10 airlines in the U.S, all currently down a ton. Again, if they recover, huge profits for you.

I purchased Spirit airlines back in March at $10. It quickly rose to $25, then dropped to $16 where I sold to lock in my 60% profit. It's been simmering around $18 ever since. I also purchased Southwest at the same time but am still holding those shares.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:05 pm
by JeepDaze
Biotech penny stocks. As risky as some of the other suggestions here.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:01 am
by Shallowpockets
The underlying premise is a moonshot. 100x is an extraordinary number. Unrealistic. And a 20 year horizon is another long wrong shot.
What if it hits 10x in the first year? Will you bail? What if it doubles between now and the end of the year? Many stocks have doubled in 2020 so far. Would you leave it be?
Seems at such points as above i would get out.

Your basis of 4% is an unknown dollar amount to us. You are prepared to lose it. Therefore the dollar amount is not that significant to you. Therefore it needs to go to extremes such as 20x to make it worthwhile to you. To make it enticing.
It is a game for you and your rules of 20x in 20 years is a horizon that boxes you in.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:30 am
by hagridshut
I believe that 100x moonshots are possible, but generally only for people who (1) have the expertise to spot an opportunity far earlier than others, and (2) are willing to tolerate long periods of underperformance and stress related to the stock holding.

TSLA is an example that comes to mind. IPO was around $3.40/share (split-adjusted) in mid-2010. A decade later, the stock is trading around $420/share, for a greater than 100x gain.

How many people would have been able to understand the implications of Tesla's roadmap in 2010? How many people would have been able to tolerate years of massive uncertainty, relentless attacks by the Mainstream Media, and the sometimes unpredictable behavior of Elon Musk? TSLA basically went nowhere from mid-2014 through late 2019, with share prices trapped in the $40-60 (split adjusted) range for most of that period.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:51 am
by MotoTrojan
MotoTrojan wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:36 am
OP I would consider buying a basket of net-net micro-cap stocks if you can find any. Buying 10 of them may give you a shot at capturing a couple big ones, but 100x is all luck.
Good book covering all the basics of net-nets: https://www.amazon.com/Benjamin-Grahams ... 085719707X

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:23 pm
by System1
novemberrain wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:28 am
vtjon02 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:06 am I think you should first focus on getting your spending under control. That alone will help you increase your net worth by over $4M over the next ten years.
As I mentioned in my post, the income got high only recently. That explains the low NW.
There has been a lot of helpful advice on the investment options, but with the ability to make that much income (vastly more than you can make investing) why wouldn't you focus your attention there and maybe planning to start your own company in that space: "invest in yourself". You might make $10M in the next 10 years in your careers, vs. a bunch of time spent on risky endeavors that may or may not pay off.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:36 am
by alfaspider
hagridshut wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:30 am I believe that 100x moonshots are possible, but generally only for people who (1) have the expertise to spot an opportunity far earlier than others, and (2) are willing to tolerate long periods of underperformance and stress related to the stock holding.

TSLA is an example that comes to mind. IPO was around $3.40/share (split-adjusted) in mid-2010. A decade later, the stock is trading around $420/share, for a greater than 100x gain.

How many people would have been able to understand the implications of Tesla's roadmap in 2010? How many people would have been able to tolerate years of massive uncertainty, relentless attacks by the Mainstream Media, and the sometimes unpredictable behavior of Elon Musk? TSLA basically went nowhere from mid-2014 through late 2019, with share prices trapped in the $40-60 (split adjusted) range for most of that period.
The other way to do it is with out the money options (as popularized on wall street bets). Depending on what's available in the options market, you may be able to get a 100x return with the stock merely doubling or tripling. Of course, it's a straight lottery ticket with extremely low chances of success. Not too much different from online gambling.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:50 am
by AlohaBill
Try C O T Y

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:44 pm
by epicahab
SwampDonkey wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:51 pm My favorite sleeper stock right now is Mercado Libre (MELI). If you combine Amazon, Paypal, and a few others into a single company, this is what MELI is....only in South America and still in the early stages. Strong management team, clear vision and execution (so far), investments from some major US companies, and a market cap that isn't outrageous (~$50B).

IF they continue their growth story I could easily see them hitting $500B in 10-15 years.

Disclosure: I bought into the company in March when they dropped to $550, they're currently around $1k/share. I expect continued volatility but have no intention of selling anytime this decade.
I think you might be on to something great here, thanks for posting.
In researching, I found three other international non-USA online marketplace companies that could be interesting: SE, BWMX, and JMIA.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:33 pm
by rich126
10X is tough enough much less 100X.

Options may allow for a huge gain.

This year and the past year or so has been huge for cloud/software as a service stocks. Just look at the obvious one - Zoom. But again 100X is a whole different strata.

Someone elsewhere had ENPH (I think it is Enphase) and that has done extraordinarily well but is too high now.

Personally I think it would make more sense to shot for 10X since it is more achievable. Going for 100X is more likely to result in a lot of money lost and unlikely to obtain the 100X stock unless you bought it early and kept it for many years.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:52 pm
by Dontridetheindexdown
At age 40, with, "2M NW...and now close to 1M annual household income" you are just beginning to fund your retirement.

Possibly, you have paid off student debt, each practice a lucrative specialty, and spend less than you earn.

The good news is, you have found this website.

The reality is, you need at least 20x income to retire, some of us have amassed multiples of 20x.

If you invest at least half your income during the next 10 years, you will be fortunate to have 10x annual income invested at age 50.

If you continue to invest at least half your income during the following 10 years, you might, just might, have 20X income invested at age 60.

The system we use here is entirely scale-able, whether you earn 40,000/year or 1,000,000/year.

Choose an asset allocation you can live with (we are at 50/50 at ages 69 and 65) and live with it.

Live below your means, invest assiduously, and you just might fund a comfortable retirement.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:01 pm
by SwampDonkey
epicahab wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:44 pm
SwampDonkey wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:51 pm My favorite sleeper stock right now is Mercado Libre (MELI). If you combine Amazon, Paypal, and a few others into a single company, this is what MELI is....only in South America and still in the early stages. Strong management team, clear vision and execution (so far), investments from some major US companies, and a market cap that isn't outrageous (~$50B).

IF they continue their growth story I could easily see them hitting $500B in 10-15 years.

Disclosure: I bought into the company in March when they dropped to $550, they're currently around $1k/share. I expect continued volatility but have no intention of selling anytime this decade.
I think you might be on to something great here, thanks for posting.
In researching, I found three other international non-USA online marketplace companies that could be interesting: SE, BWMX, and JMIA.
I've been watching SE for a year. ALMOST bought it in March. D'oh!

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:38 am
by 4nursebee
I detest the phrase play money.
I detest "willing to lose it all"
I find lazy people unwilling to do work on their own...

Anything that will go up that much over time is going to be a heck of a ride, I predict you won't hold on during volatility, especially if advice was obtained by anonymous internet types. Such kind of intestinal fortitude comes through hard work, perhaps instructive losses, and personal conviction. Bogleheads won't agree with you, will tear you down, argue to sell sell sell at a time when you should buy more!

Who would you take football advice from? Some guy drinking beer on the couch or the coach of some major university program?

I predict you either are an exceptional human being and can do well without any help (I think one person I know did well like this) or you will get results in line with the effort brought forth.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:27 am
by mptfan
I just want to say one word to you, just one word... are you listening? Plastics.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:03 pm
by Day9
Larry Swedroe just published an article investigating what kind of investor buys "lottery ticket" style assets. He was surprised to find that wealthy households are more likely to buy these kinds of assets. OP has a household income of $1 million. Good luck to all :beer

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:03 pm
by k1982
World Series Of Poker held every year in Las Vegas

Buy In's are small and you can 10-100x your way in several events
and the main event if you make it to final table you are set for life :)

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:37 pm
by bedon
Deep out of the money (DOTM) options strategy - Buying calls on growth stocks that have positive story about them around the current crisis. Don’t know about 100x but 30-50x it definitely possible (as is losing all of your premium). You would want to go 6-18 month in expiration with strike price meaningfully above the current price in something that has liquid options market.

This is pure speculation but to increase your chances in the speculation you would want something that:
  • Has good story around them about how they are benefiting form the current situation (e.g. ZM, PTON, AMZN, ETSY).
  • Has been able to significantly grow revenue (not earnings, not being profitable is probably a plus here) in the last few quarters (e.g. ZM +100%, SQ +40%, FSLY +18%)
  • It’s in a sector/industry that has a lot of “excitement” around it (e.g. green energy, semiconductors, software, internet stuff) - basically anything that has the narrative about “revolutionising” something. Bonus points if millennials are exited about it :)

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:44 pm
by mptfan
k1982 wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:03 pm World Series Of Poker held every year in Las Vegas
Not this year, the live event was cancelled due to Covid.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:51 pm
by Doctor Rhythm
Step 1: acquire cat from shelter
Step 2: monetize said cat on YouTube

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:57 am
by Cyanide123
novemberrain wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:54 am I have a very bogleheadian portfolio. Mostly VTSAX (or FSKAX) and recently venturing into the other 2 legs of the 3 fund portfolio. However, I do have a "play money" account which is at present about 4% of my investible assets (and 2% of NW).

I have had some success with this play money. But nothing spectacular.

Question : If I am willing to lose this entire play money, but hoping for a lottery ticket of sorts that will net me a 100x return over the next decade, what are your suggestions ?

Age : 40
DI2K (Double income 2 kids)
Recently crossed 2M NW.
Careers recently went into high earning mode and now close to 1M annual household income.
Predictit.org

Can probably double it or completely lose everything in a couple of months of you truly want to. It's basically gambling, but an academic experiment to see if markets predict political outcomes. I'll probably go up 9 percent in a few weeks after the election. I say probably because my bets are on trump winning Indiana, 10% return on bet, and losing NY with a 7% return.

It's dumb how some people are willing to bet 7 cents stating that Trump will win NY State. What Republican ever wins NY State 😂? I mean come on.... That's just free money...

There are articles online how some people actually do that full time now and make a decent income lol.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:12 am
by Cyanide123
bedon wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:37 pm Deep out of the money (DOTM) options strategy - Buying calls on growth stocks that have positive story about them around the current crisis. Don’t know about 100x but 30-50x it definitely possible (as is losing all of your premium). You would want to go 6-18 month in expiration with strike price meaningfully above the current price in something that has liquid options market.

This is pure speculation but to increase your chances in the speculation you would want something that:
  • Has good story around them about how they are benefiting form the current situation (e.g. ZM, PTON, AMZN, ETSY).
  • Has been able to significantly grow revenue (not earnings, not being profitable is probably a plus here) in the last few quarters (e.g. ZM +100%, SQ +40%, FSLY +18%)
  • It’s in a sector/industry that has a lot of “excitement” around it (e.g. green energy, semiconductors, software, internet stuff) - basically anything that has the narrative about “revolutionising” something. Bonus points if millennials are exited about it :)
Or you could sell puts for volatile stocks, make a couple percent every month in premium. If you get assigned then you start selling calls. Obviously should only be done with stocks/etfs you're willing to hold if needed. But this strategy probably can easily get 10-20 percent per year if you're willing to bet on volatile items

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:14 am
by Cyanide123
Lastly if you're truly bullish on the economy and sp500, then spxl may be interesting. But if sp500 declines, you're basically screwed.

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:57 am
by newguy123
I have not seen 100x moon shots before but have seen some 10X ,

The criteria I have found for 10X moon shots that sometimes happen is the following

1.When you tell anyone you are invested in XXX , most will say you are stupid
2.You would think you will lose your 100% of your money when you put into it
3. The chance of you making any money is close to 0%


An example of this is AMD in 2012 , you have to be crazy to invest in AMD at this time, they were on a verge of becoming bankrupt and their chips plain out sucked. If you told anyone you invested in AMD in 2012, they would think you are stupid and crazy.

Take it with a grain of salt, but if you are looking for a 10X moon shot that is your criteria

Another one is overstock earlier this year ... my friend told me he was invested in Overstock and I told him , he is crazy and stupid ... see the trend ?