Moderna

Eastcoaster212 · Post by **Eastcoaster212** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:26 pm

Thoughts on this investment?

caffeperfavore · Post by **caffeperfavore** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:29 pm

Yes... as part of a low cost equities index fund in a three fund portfolio.

This is Bogleheads you know.

surfstar · Post by **surfstar** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:32 pm

Eastcoaster212 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:26 pm Thoughts on this investment?

You're a bit late.

Eastcoaster212 · Post by **Eastcoaster212** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:36 pm

Bought it a while ago, just figuring out how long to hold it. DO you think it will hit 90? Today it opened at 87. Holding out for the best price

jason2459 · Post by **jason2459** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:37 pm

I think it's great news that they are progressing well with a vaccine. I'm happy to be invested in it along with over 3,000 other companies in my total market index funds.

arcticpineapplecorp. · Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:46 pm

Eastcoaster212 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:36 pm Bought it a while ago, just figuring out how long to hold it. DO you think it will hit 90? Today it opened at 87. Holding out for the best price

looks like you should have sold it then this morning, since it closed at $80.22. whoops

if you have to ask when to sell, that tells me you don't have an exit strategy. That's a dangerous thing because you'll never know when to sell if you haven't already determined when you should. Even if it did hit $90 tomorrow, would you say "Maybe it'll hit $100. I should wait til then"?

individual stocks are risky. They can go to $0.

do you know the total stock market index fund holds 3493 stocks (including Moderna)? 5,585,195 shares of Moderna to be exact. Source: https://personal.vanguard.com/funds/rep ... 2210160916

so why not own it along with 3492 other stocks?

what is the likelihood 3493 stocks will go to $0?

then you can stop asking what other random strangers on the internet think an individual stock's "best" price will be (as if they would actually know that). The market knows what the correct price is at all times. What makes you think any one person can know the right and true and "best" price?

Sell and then you can instead get on with the business of investing.

Eastcoaster212 · Post by **Eastcoaster212** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:51 pm

Lol.

Yes i own, Etfs, mutual funds, VTSAX and a whole plethora of safer investments. I was just asking what people thought about this stock. I also own in in other funds that are well diversified.

Personally every now and then i like to put in 10K into an individual stock that I think will hit big. Its fun and not completely about the money... It worked out well with tesla and thought it would with this as well.

You don't need to be rude, was just a simple basic question and didn't need to get into the other aspects of investing of more diversified funds, which im sure every single person here does that...

EnjoyIt · Post by **EnjoyIt** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:53 pm

Buying individual stocks are easy. Selling them is the hard part.

Aw0k3n · Post by **Aw0k3n** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:58 pm

Funny post
Wallstreetbets on reddit would offer more discussion and “DD” on this. I am just happy to own this as part of total stock market

JonnyDVM · Post by **JonnyDVM** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:59 pm

The time to buy is before the news hits. BEFORE. Also, the antibodies have to stay around. They haven’t proven that they do yet. If they last for a month that’s not doing us much good.

To make it actionable I noticed the travel and entertainment sector spiked today. RCL up 20%. You might still be able to find some value rooting around in that sector.

SmileyFace · Post by **SmileyFace** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:01 pm

If you look at the top of the page you will see the words "Investing Advice Inspired by Jack Bogle"

Jack Bogle inspired many of us to invest only (or mostly) in index funds. Its the primary strategy discussion here. Thus you won't find much feedback on individual stock picks and when to buy/hold/sell on this site (plenty of other sites for that discussion).

Aw0k3n · Post by **Aw0k3n** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:03 pm

JonnyDVM wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:59 pm The time to buy is before the news hits. BEFORE. Also, the antibodies have to stay around. They haven’t proven that yet. If they last for a month that’s not doing us much good.

This as well. Plus there is Pfizer, Astrazeneca and whole bunch of big, small and bleeding edge pharma on the covid19 train. So if competition comes up with something sooner then would drop fast

Teague · Post by **Teague** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:08 pm

OP, everybody already knows about that company. Too late there. If I were you I'd invest in that small but established biotech company that has shown promising phase I results and very solid but unpublicized early phase II results, but has not received nearly the same publicity as Moderna.

yohac · Post by **yohac** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:10 pm

Eastcoaster212 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:51 pm Personally every now and then i like to put in 10K into an individual stock that I think will hit big. Its fun and not completely about the money... It worked out well with tesla and thought it would with this as well.

Expensive entertainment. Congrats on your win with Tesla. However unless you had insider info, that was a bet based on only a hunch. If Moderna has what becomes the global vaccine, then 85 or 90 or 100 doesn't really matter.

JonnyB · Post by **JonnyB** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:11 pm

Moderna executives have sold $90 million worth of their shares since February.

The chief medical officer sold all 100,000 of his shares then exercised his options and sold those too. He now holds no shares.

The chief technical officer also sold all of his shares in the last few months.

The CEO has sold 400,000 shares this year.

Maybe they know something you don't.

Teague · Post by **Teague** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:15 pm

JonnyDVM wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:59 pm The time to buy is before the news hits. BEFORE. Also, the antibodies have to stay around. They haven’t proven that they do yet. If they last for a month that’s not doing us much good.

Memory T and B cells play a great role, not just preformed antibodies.

UpsetRaptor · Post by **UpsetRaptor** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:20 pm

Bear in mind there's dozens of vaccines in development right now. Moderna is really in second place behind Oxford, and some others by the big boys - Pfizer, Merck, Johnson+Johnson, etc - are only a quarter or so behind those two. So even if they hit and hit first, how long is their likely window to make significant revenue? Granted probably not all of those will pan out, but that's another big risk - bad news pops up from Moderna's Phase 3, bad side effects among some of the elderly or something, and the stock immediately craters. They currently have no approved vaccines.

I am excited about mRNA vaccine possibilities in general, long-term. So I'm certainly rooting for them, for humanity's sake. And maybe that's their eventual catalyst, a broader mRNA vaccine portfolio. Risky bet though.

And of course, nobody knows nothin.

Scooter57 · Post by **Scooter57** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:41 pm

They are moving from a trial with 45 healthy people under age 55 to one with 30,000 people of all ages. This is highly risky. There has been no serious safety testing and no testing to see if the antibodies provoked repel the virus. The chances for a bad side effect to emerge are very high. It is also quite possible the antibodies don't prevent infection in the vulnerable people who most need protection or that they last only a short time.

The time to get onto this kind of stock is when it is mostly hope. One piece of bad news and the price will plunge. Hopium stocks like this can easily go to near zero.

Flobes · Post by **Flobes** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:44 pm

"Researchers around the world are developing more than 155 vaccines against the coronavirus, and 23 vaccines are in human trials."

Check out the Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker.

The Tracker details all the myriad endeavors, explains the vaccine development process, and describes the science underlying different types of vaccines. Status is updated daily with whatever news is news for all of the various ventures.

Good luck to the stock-pickers picking the winner. Good luck to all the rest of us that several of them succeed soon.

Hyperchicken · Post by **Hyperchicken** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:53 pm

In before the lock - it's all priced in (tm).

goodenyou · Post by **goodenyou** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:24 pm

Buy AZN if you want a vaccine play. My opinion only.

McDougal · Post by **McDougal** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:59 pm

Eastcoaster212 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:51 pm Lol.

Yes i own, Etfs, mutual funds, VTSAX and a whole plethora of safer investments. I was just asking what people thought about this stock. I also own in in other funds that are well diversified.

Personally every now and then i like to put in 10K into an individual stock that I think will hit big. Its fun and not completely about the money... It worked out well with tesla and thought it would with this as well.

You don't need to be rude, was just a simple basic question and didn't need to get into the other aspects of investing of more diversified funds, which im sure every single person here does that...

It's fun until you lose a lot of money. Don't ask how I know that.

JonnyDVM · Post by **JonnyDVM** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:57 pm

goodenyou wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:24 pm Buy AZN if you want a vaccine play. My opinion only.

Random person I’m the internet??? [offensive language removed by admin LadyGeek] I’m in!!!!

Not joking. I’ll buy some tomorrow. All fun money.

UpsetRaptor · Post by **UpsetRaptor** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:19 pm

goodenyou wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:24 pm Buy AZN if you want a vaccine play. My opinion only.

Same problem as Moderna. Lots of big players are a quarter behind, max. How long is their money making window going to be?

goodenyou · Post by **goodenyou** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:48 pm

UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:19 pm
goodenyou wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:24 pm Buy AZN if you want a vaccine play. My opinion only.
Same problem as Moderna. Lots of big players are a quarter behind, max. How long is their money making window going to be?

My money is on AZN. We shall see. Rooting for all of them, but I hope AZN pulls it off.

arcticpineapplecorp. · Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:07 pm

EnjoyIt wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:53 pm Buying individual stocks are easy. Selling them is the hard part.

buying individual stocks are easy. Figuring out which 4% of all the companies will be the ones to create the value of the stock market is the hard part.
https://www.spindices.com/spiva/#/reports
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=2900447

annu · Post by **annu** » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:09 am

I think a drug therapy will be best, as corono are tough to vaccinate against. For moderns itself check below

Regarding safety, no serious adverse events were reported. More than half of the participants reported fatigue, headache, chills, myalgia or pain at the injection site. Systemic adverse events were more common following the second vaccination and in those who received the highest vaccine dose. Data on side effects and immune responses at various vaccine dosages informed the doses used or planned for use in the Phase 2 and 3 clinical trials of the investigational vaccine.

More than half had adverse reactions......
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-re ... e-response

And if there are mutations, immune response if it lasts might not be effective anyway.
Maybe bot having any underlying hidden disease that can kill you is what will be best to hope for, as covid19 seemsnto cause complications.

But I am sure wallstreetbets and all stimulus checks will be investing and going for pharma and tesla for this year

JonnyDVM · Post by **JonnyDVM** » Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:28 am

goodenyou wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:48 pm
UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:19 pm
goodenyou wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:24 pm Buy AZN if you want a vaccine play. My opinion only.
Same problem as Moderna. Lots of big players are a quarter behind, max. How long is their money making window going to be?
My money is on AZN. We shall see. Rooting for all of them, but I hope AZN pulls it off.

I’m a man of my word. Just grabbed a small amount of AZN for kicks (only 36 shares). If it pays off handsomely I’ll give you the greatest possible compliment I can offer- a sharebeer emoji.

ikowik · Post by **ikowik** » Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:36 am

annu wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:09 am
More than half had adverse reactions......
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-re ... e-response

That is selective picking of parts of the report. The exact words which addressed adverse reactions in the report reads
"Regarding safety, no serious adverse events were reported. More than half of the participants reported fatigue, headache, chills, myalgia or pain at the injection site. Systemic adverse events were more common following the second vaccination and in those who received the highest vaccine dose...."

That is very similar to the new Shingles vaccine, which is now widely accepted.

goodenyou · Post by **goodenyou** » Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:28 am

JonnyDVM wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:28 am
goodenyou wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:48 pm
UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:19 pm
goodenyou wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:24 pm Buy AZN if you want a vaccine play. My opinion only.
Same problem as Moderna. Lots of big players are a quarter behind, max. How long is their money making window going to be?
My money is on AZN. We shall see. Rooting for all of them, but I hope AZN pulls it off.
I’m a man of my word. Just grabbed a small amount of AZN for kicks (only 36 shares). If it pays off handsomely I’ll give you the greatest possible compliment I can offer- a sharebeer emoji.

Welcome to the fan club. We can paint our faces!

wolf359 · Post by **wolf359** » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:29 pm

EnjoyIt wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:53 pm Buying individual stocks are easy. Selling them is the hard part.

+1

Back when I bought individual stocks, I found that I had a knack for picking excellent stocks. My problem was that I had no sell strategy.

I'd buy and the stock would soar. I'd hold on and it would soar more. Then it would collapse, but I was still holding.

Yes, I knew about stop losses. Individual stocks were often volatile enough that I'd get stopped out before it resumed the climb.

Index funds are much easier. They can't drop to zero. Some of my individual holdings did.

Beehave · Post by **Beehave** » Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:57 pm

There are several competing vaccines. No one knows yet which if any will be successful. Astra Zeneca is preparing to produce and distribute batches at cost (zero profit).

Many years ago I invested in individual "break through" stocks (synthetic blood that saved drowning victims, inhalation diabetes control, cancer attacking salmonella, neural regeneration). I figured at least one would hit after promising initial studies. All four went bust (along with Dome Petroleum which I thought was too big for the Canadian gov't to allow to fail).

After that I eventually figured out that individual stocks are difficult compared to investing in very broad indexes. This Moderna thing may or may not work out. But whatever you choose to do, consider that things are very early in this process. They've only tested on young, healthy subjects in small numbers. All kinds of things can crop up between the promising current state and the hoped-for future state of passing all testing successfully and being able to produce in bulk and being able to sell at a profit.

I hope their stuff works and I hope all the vaccines and therapeutics work. But there's a huge delta between concept and early test and final product. I think back to the miracle synthetic blood that saved lives. In testing, it surprisingly and inexcplicably caused fatal strokes. The company went broke after the first round of testing failed, they made adjustments, and the second round failed too.

arcticpineapplecorp. · Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:02 pm

you've confused this website for Mod Money with Jam Creamer.

annu · Post by **annu** » Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:17 pm

ikowik wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:36 am
annu wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:09 am
More than half had adverse reactions......
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-re ... e-response
That is selective picking of parts of the report. The exact words which addressed adverse reactions in the report reads
"Regarding safety, no serious adverse events were reported. More than half of the participants reported fatigue, headache, chills, myalgia or pain at the injection site. Systemic adverse events were more common following the second vaccination and in those who received the highest vaccine dose...."

That is very similar to the new Shingles vaccine, which is now widely accepted.

Please read my post, I had full text there, 50% do have adverse reaction, and 3 had severe. I include all the text they had from thenrepprt, bo cherry picking

palanzo · Post by **palanzo** » Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:22 pm

Eastcoaster212 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:26 pm Thoughts on this investment?

Why ALL CAPS? That's shouting.

https://www.modernatx.com

ikowik · Post by **ikowik** » Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:20 pm

annu wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:17 pm
ikowik wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:36 am
annu wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:09 am
More than half had adverse reactions......
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-re ... e-response
That is selective picking of parts of the report. The exact words which addressed adverse reactions in the report reads
"Regarding safety, no serious adverse events were reported. More than half of the participants reported fatigue, headache, chills, myalgia or pain at the injection site. Systemic adverse events were more common following the second vaccination and in those who received the highest vaccine dose...."

That is very similar to the new Shingles vaccine, which is now widely accepted.
Please read my post, I had full text there, 50% do have adverse reaction, and 3 had severe. I include all the text they had from thenrepprt, bo cherry picking

You are correct, I missed part of your post

JonnyDVM · Post by **JonnyDVM** » Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:38 pm

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:02 pm you've confused this website for Mod Money with Jam Creamer.

When I’m a vaccine millionaire I’ll remember you said that. No share beer emoji for you.

02nz · Post by **02nz** » Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:42 pm

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:02 pm you've confused this website for Mod Money with Jam Creamer.

Jam Creamer? Sounds weirdly delicious.

JonnyDVM · Post by **JonnyDVM** » Fri Jul 17, 2020 6:24 pm

goodenyou wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:28 am
JonnyDVM wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:28 am
goodenyou wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:48 pm
UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:19 pm
goodenyou wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:24 pm Buy AZN if you want a vaccine play. My opinion only.
Same problem as Moderna. Lots of big players are a quarter behind, max. How long is their money making window going to be?
My money is on AZN. We shall see. Rooting for all of them, but I hope AZN pulls it off.
I’m a man of my word. Just grabbed a small amount of AZN for kicks (only 36 shares). If it pays off handsomely I’ll give you the greatest possible compliment I can offer- a sharebeer emoji.
Welcome to the fan club. We can paint our faces!

Good start. Full disclosure, I sold a small loser and bought a little more this morning.

annu · Post by **annu** » Fri Jul 17, 2020 6:28 pm

goodenyou wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:48 pm
UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:19 pm
goodenyou wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:24 pm Buy AZN if you want a vaccine play. My opinion only.
Same problem as Moderna. Lots of big players are a quarter behind, max. How long is their money making window going to be?
My money is on AZN. We shall see. Rooting for all of them, but I hope AZN pulls it off.

This is where it started for me, the begining of the cycle I am in, where I own 289 shares of Azn now.

jason2459 · Post by **jason2459** » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:54 pm

down on this news right now https://www.reuters.com/article/moderna ... SL3N2EU3UL

wander · Post by **wander** » Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:10 pm

This is an old thread.

Eastcoaster212 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:36 pm Bought it a while ago, just figuring out how long to hold it. DO you think it will hit 90? Today it opened at 87. Holding out for the best price

Price at close last Friday was $62.60. Good luck. It's too risky for me.

humbledinvestor · Post by **humbledinvestor** » Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:14 pm

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:02 pm you've confused this website for Mod Money with Jam Creamer.

Jam Creamer

Hilarious!

More and more this site has posts about individual stocks, speculation etc. I fear others won't learn what took me a while to learn from Bogleheads.

arcticpineapplecorp. · Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:33 pm

humbledinvestor wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:14 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:02 pm you've confused this website for Mod Money with Jam Creamer.
Jam Creamer Hilarious!

More and more this site has posts about individual stocks, speculation etc. I fear others won't learn what took me a while to learn from Bogleheads.

thanks.

i'm finding the same thing (more an more talk about individual stocks and such). It's almost as if people haven't read the philosophy of bogleheads:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... philosophy

for the stock jobbers out there, there's subreddits. For investors...there's bogleheads!

nisiprius · Post by **nisiprius** » Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:27 pm

I don't buy or sell individual stocks. This is a forum devoted to "investing advice inspired by Jack Bogle" and he was dedicated to total stock market indexing. I don't know if this means anything or not and I haven't been following this closely. But a screaming headline did catch my eye. Referencing back to the source:

Moderna executives cashed out while stock price soared

The top five executives at the biotech company Moderna have sold more than $89 million of stock so far this year.

Two have sold down to zero:

Tal Zaks, Moderna’s chief medical officer... currently holds zero shares of Moderna stock.... Juan Andres, Moderna’s chief technical officer... as of his most recent trade... holds no shares of the company."

The sales are said to have been prescheduled through a corporate 105b-1 trading plan. Whatever that means.

All I can say is that this is not a good look--and I'm surprised that any company executive would be so determined to sell that they would ignore the public relations aspect of their actions. And further surprised that anyone who believed in the product their company made would be so hard-headed as to sell every single share and not keep just a little bit just in case the company had any further growth left in it (like when the vaccine went into production, perhaps).

How often does this happen (highly-placed executives dumping all of their shares?)

am · Post by am » Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:34 pm

nisiprius wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:27 pm I don't buy or sell individual stocks. This is a forum devoted to "investing advice inspired by Jack Bogle" and he was dedicated to total stock market indexing. I don't know if this means anything or not and I haven't been following this closely. But a screaming headline did catch my eye. Referencing back to the source:

Moderna executives cashed out while stock price soared
The top five executives at the biotech company Moderna have sold more than $89 million of stock so far this year.
Two have sold down to zero:
Tal Zaks, Moderna’s chief medical officer... currently holds zero shares of Moderna stock.... Juan Andres, Moderna’s chief technical officer... as of his most recent trade... holds no shares of the company."
The sales are said to have been prescheduled through a corporate 105b-1 trading plan. Whatever that means.

All I can say is that this is not a good look--and I'm surprised that any company executive would be so determined to sell that they would ignore the public relations aspect of their actions. And further surprised that anyone who believed in the product their company made would be so hard-headed as to sell every single share and not keep just a little bit just in case the company had any further growth left in it (like when the vaccine went into production, perhaps).

How often does this happen (highly-placed executives dumping all of their shares?)

Seems shady. Any chance he’ll be investigated if Moderna drops back down to the price before the vaccine?