Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

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cashboy
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by cashboy »

No.

for my goals, the 3-fund has served me better than i expected.

i vaguely remember someone (Bogle?) said something like one's investing goal should not be that one aim to be rich, but instead the aim is to not die poor (or something like that). that is my goal. as such, i do not need to 'make a killing'. for those that do aim to be rich, and make a killing on certain stocks, i wish them well.

now, if a person did feel they are missing out they could keep 3-fund as a part/core of their portfolio and speculate with any other money.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by statefan03 »

If you look at the financials for Tesla it doesn't look like a good investment. Negative ROIC, negative Profit Margin, and a P/E of almost 400.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by pkcrafter »

Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:57 pm Hello Everyone,

Does anyone worry about "missing out" because you are only invested in the 3-fund portfolio and hot tips abound?
An emphatic NO!

Read up on FOMO.


Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Zillions »

statefan03 wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:00 am If you look at the financials for Tesla it doesn't look like a good investment. Negative ROIC, negative Profit Margin, and a P/E of almost 400.
This is exactly why I am / was nervous. The company's financials don't look good. The counter was "it's a growth company & Graham would never have invested in AMZN back when it IPO-ed, either, but look at AMZN now". That did anger me a little but Graham was several orders of magnitude smarter than either of us and if he wouldn't have betted in TSLA or AMZN why should I?

I am ok now, having slept on this overnight, but I did feel momentarily angry at myself yesterday. I know for our life circumstances, speculation will end badly esp as our money has to last our son for several decades after we're gone.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Fallible »

RomeoMustDie wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:05 pm ...
In a sense, rebalancing is "market timing" yet most bogleheads are not resistant to rebalancing. ...
Rebalancing is bringing a portfolio that has deviated from a target asset allocation back into line. Market timing is basically predicting what the market will do and investing based on that prediction.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by ChiKid24 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:46 pm
Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:40 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:38 pm
Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:33 pm My brother is a gambler. He claims he made $54000 today just on TSLA and I have no reason to doubt him. I should be happy for him but ugh! envy! although our mileage varies.

I DO like the predictability the 3-fund portfolio has brought to our lives, although I am having a really hard time understanding Total Bond fund (as I posted earlier today). Plus, my / our personal life is quite chaotic at the moment so I should be avoiding the volatility / unpredictability of single stocks like the plague (and we are). But yes, I am jealous. I should probably be ashamed of myself that I am not happier for him.
If my math is correct that means your brother has roughly $545,000 invested in Tesla stock. Unless he is an options guy.
Not sure, but he is straight with me. If he says he made 54K, yes, he made 54K. He's a physician (married to another physician) and has deep pockets so it is entirely possible that he's got that kind of money in TSLA or dabbles in options (he's a gambler).
I was just trying to point out the size of the investment required for the gain.
The actual investment could have been much lower given the run-up Tesla has had. If he bought at $200/share last year (which I did with a small allocation I devote to individual stocks), his investment could have been closer to $60k to generate yesterday's $54k gain. I understand the regret, as I definitely wish I still had my shares! But I sold when I doubled my money and rebalanced into 2-fund (no bonds) to keep my individual stock allocation low (5%).
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Zillions »

ChiKid24 wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:25 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:46 pm
Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:40 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:38 pm
Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:33 pm My brother is a gambler. He claims he made $54000 today just on TSLA and I have no reason to doubt him. I should be happy for him but ugh! envy! although our mileage varies.

I DO like the predictability the 3-fund portfolio has brought to our lives, although I am having a really hard time understanding Total Bond fund (as I posted earlier today). Plus, my / our personal life is quite chaotic at the moment so I should be avoiding the volatility / unpredictability of single stocks like the plague (and we are). But yes, I am jealous. I should probably be ashamed of myself that I am not happier for him.
If my math is correct that means your brother has roughly $545,000 invested in Tesla stock. Unless he is an options guy.
Not sure, but he is straight with me. If he says he made 54K, yes, he made 54K. He's a physician (married to another physician) and has deep pockets so it is entirely possible that he's got that kind of money in TSLA or dabbles in options (he's a gambler).
I was just trying to point out the size of the investment required for the gain.
The actual investment could have been much lower given the run-up Tesla has had. If he bought at $200/share last year (which I did with a small allocation I devote to individual stocks), his investment could have been closer to $60k to generate yesterday's $54k gain. I understand the regret, as I definitely wish I still had my shares! But I sold when I doubled my money and rebalanced into 2-fund (no bonds) to keep my individual stock allocation low (5%).
He suggested it to me at TG and he's been extremely bullish on TSLA and AMZN. Calls himself the "growth stock guy". I do not have the stomach for risk having graduated from the University of Hard Knocks with a Ph.D in Murphy's Law so nothing ventured, nothing have, I guess.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by nisiprius »

Fear of missing out will drive you bananas, lead to failing and pendulum swings between depression and elation, lead you to churning your account, and, most likely, increase the volatility and uncertainty of your personal results without leading to any higher return.

Someone is always going to be doing better than you. You have to figure out in advance what you are going to do about that.

The people who are "into" stock-picking are almost certain to be selective in what they tell you, and very likely selective about what they remember themselves. It is almost irresistible to find reasons and excuses for why various investment failures shouldn't "count."

True story, not about investing. A friend of mine mentioned that she had spent the weekend at a casino in Atlantic City and "had won money playing my system." I really didn't cross-examine her, but I did encourage her to keep talking. It transpired that she had indeed won money on Saturday. Also, she had lost money on Sunday. Also, she had lost more money on Sunday than she had won on Saturday, but on Sunday she "had outsmarted herself" by departing from her system.

I don't know where to get statistics on "individual enthusiastic stock-pickers," but there are statistics on the professionals who run actively-managed mutual funds. Over the last five years, 80% of actively-managed large-cap funds failed to beat the index. That's a stunning failure. As an indexer, you can choose to feel unhappy about the 20% that beat the index, or happy about beating 80% of the active funds.

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makingmistakes
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by makingmistakes »

Have a coworker whose AAPL stock is worth about half a million now and I’m extremely jealous :( And like you, I’m not proud of myself.

I’ve been praying that I’ll be a person who “rejoices with those who rejoice and weeps with those who weep”.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by RocketShipTech »

nisiprius wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:51 pm I don't know where to get statistics on "individual enthusiastic stock-pickers," but there are statistics on the professionals who run actively-managed mutual funds. Over the last five years, 80% of actively-managed large-cap funds failed to beat the index. That's a stunning failure. As an indexer, you can choose to feel unhappy about the 20% that beat the index, or happy about beating 80% of the active funds.

Image
Super misleading stat. There are thousands of really terrible funds out there, it doesn’t take a genius to weed them out.

What does the comparison look like for actively managed funds with reasonable expense ratios, lauded managers, and a proven track record?
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by cos »

RocketShipTech wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:56 pm Super misleading stat. There are thousands of really terrible funds out there, it doesn’t take a genius to weed them out.

What does the comparison look like for actively managed funds with reasonable expense ratios, lauded managers, and a proven track record?
Got any good recommendations?
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by RocketShipTech »

cos wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:58 pm
RocketShipTech wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:56 pm Super misleading stat. There are thousands of really terrible funds out there, it doesn’t take a genius to weed them out.

What does the comparison look like for actively managed funds with reasonable expense ratios, lauded managers, and a proven track record?
Got any good recommendations?
Plenty of BH threads on favorite active funds.

I will just point out that a recent systemic study of Morningstar fund ratings shows that past performance moderately predicts future performance:

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-mornin ... 1508946687
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Zillions »

makingmistakes wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:53 pm Have a coworker whose AAPL stock is worth about half a million now and I’m extremely jealous :( And like you, I’m not proud of myself.

I’ve been praying that I’ll be a person who “rejoices with those who rejoice and weeps with those who weep”.
I have miles to go there! Jealousy is ugly, but I think it's FOMO / regret really.

cos wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:58 pm
RocketShipTech wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:56 pm Super misleading stat. There are thousands of really terrible funds out there, it doesn’t take a genius to weed them out.

What does the comparison look like for actively managed funds with reasonable expense ratios, lauded managers, and a proven track record?
Got any good recommendations?
When WGROX opened up, it was suggested to me. Why I am CONVINCED that that persona non grata Murphy lives in my non-existent basement is because as soon as we sold everything to put into the 3-fund portfolio "HOT STOCK / MUTUAL FUNDS / ETF" tips have come pouring in.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by TheTimeLord »

ChiKid24 wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:25 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:46 pm
Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:40 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:38 pm
Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:33 pm My brother is a gambler. He claims he made $54000 today just on TSLA and I have no reason to doubt him. I should be happy for him but ugh! envy! although our mileage varies.

I DO like the predictability the 3-fund portfolio has brought to our lives, although I am having a really hard time understanding Total Bond fund (as I posted earlier today). Plus, my / our personal life is quite chaotic at the moment so I should be avoiding the volatility / unpredictability of single stocks like the plague (and we are). But yes, I am jealous. I should probably be ashamed of myself that I am not happier for him.
If my math is correct that means your brother has roughly $545,000 invested in Tesla stock. Unless he is an options guy.
Not sure, but he is straight with me. If he says he made 54K, yes, he made 54K. He's a physician (married to another physician) and has deep pockets so it is entirely possible that he's got that kind of money in TSLA or dabbles in options (he's a gambler).
I was just trying to point out the size of the investment required for the gain.
The actual investment could have been much lower given the run-up Tesla has had. If he bought at $200/share last year (which I did with a small allocation I devote to individual stocks), his investment could have been closer to $60k to generate yesterday's $54k gain. I understand the regret, as I definitely wish I still had my shares! But I sold when I doubled my money and rebalanced into 2-fund (no bonds) to keep my individual stock allocation low (5%).
I was speaking of the investment at the previous close. Whether it was dollars the investor used to purchase or capital gains it was money invested in TSLA stock.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by RCL »

OP, have you considered if you would be having this regret had you invested a large amount in the stock (or any stock) and it tanked?
If that happened, you would have wasted all that $$ that would have put your son in a better position.
In the mean time, the $$ that went into the three-funder portfolio (diversified) most likely appreciated in value.

Gamblers usually don't come out ahead unless they realize and bank their gains when they receive them.
If they let it ride...odds are against them
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Zillions »

RCL wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:41 pm OP, have you considered if you would be having this regret had you invested a large amount in the stock (or any stock) and it tanked?
If that happened, you would have wasted all that $$ that would have put your son in a better position.
In the mean time, the $$ that went into the three-funder portfolio (diversified) most likely appreciated in value.

Gamblers usually don't come out ahead unless they realize and bank their gains when they receive them.
If they let it ride...odds are against them
Yes. We converted to Bogleheadism for a reason and I am glad we did. It was momentary madness that goaded me into making this post. I cannot afford risk because it's about my kid, not me. I never want to jeopardize his future because I acted on every "hot tip" that is sent my way.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by sean.mcgrath »

Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:57 pm Hello Everyone,

Does anyone worry about "missing out" because you are only invested in the 3-fund portfolio and hot tips abound? My brother made a killing in TSLA just today. Our portfolio is going to be up as well, of course, but not likely to the extent that he (brother) is. I would never take that kind of risk but admittedly am a bit jealous that he made a small fortune today.

Anyone else?

Thanks.
This is a wonderful post. I really admire your willingness to make yourself vulnerable and honestly seek divergent viewpoints, Z.

FWIW, my view (nothing really new to the other posters):

1. Of course he does not admit his losses. Nobody does. I am willing to bet that in 10 years your return will be higher, but that there will be no way to verify this.

2. I absolutely get the jealousy. As my (older) brother said to my (younger) brother back in HS, "I am a grasshopper and you are an ant." When the grasshoppers do well, they do really well. But if you are an ant, you are an ant. Ants usually do better than grasshoppers over the long term, but even when they don't they could never have copied the grasshopper strategy anyway. It is what it is. You are better off being who you are than trying to copy your brother.

Best of luck. You did well not to buy Tesla.
Last edited by sean.mcgrath on Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by mrspock »

RocketShipTech wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:56 pm
nisiprius wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:51 pm I don't know where to get statistics on "individual enthusiastic stock-pickers," but there are statistics on the professionals who run actively-managed mutual funds. Over the last five years, 80% of actively-managed large-cap funds failed to beat the index. That's a stunning failure. As an indexer, you can choose to feel unhappy about the 20% that beat the index, or happy about beating 80% of the active funds.

Image
Super misleading stat. There are thousands of really terrible funds out there, it doesn’t take a genius to weed them out.

What does the comparison look like for actively managed funds with reasonable expense ratios, lauded managers, and a proven track record?
Not misleading at all. It doesn't take a "genius" to do stock picking with Large cap companies (there just aren't that many of them)... yet still somehow.... over just 5-10 year periods, the vast majority of them manage to royally screw it all up -- never mind 20-30 year time periods. Frankly, it's pretty embarrassing.

If anything, this stat is being overly generous. If we included all (more complex/difficult) fund management styles (comparing them against the appropriate benchmarks), and included all of those which are shutdown because they've been so badly underperforming it would likely look far worse. Proven track records are meaningless, unless your manager happens to have infinite life span. By time they've proven themselves (20 years seems fair -- a mere 2-3 market cycles), and they are "ready" for you to send them some money, their career is basically half over, it's questionable they have another 20, 30 years left in them.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Zillions »

sean.mcgrath wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:59 pm
Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:57 pm Hello Everyone,

Does anyone worry about "missing out" because you are only invested in the 3-fund portfolio and hot tips abound? My brother made a killing in TSLA just today. Our portfolio is going to be up as well, of course, but not likely to the extent that he (brother) is. I would never take that kind of risk but admittedly am a bit jealous that he made a small fortune today.

Anyone else?

Thanks.
This is a wonderful post. I really admire your willingness to make yourself vulnerable and honestly seek divergent viewpoints, Z.

FWIW, my view (nothing really new to the other posters):

1. Of course he does not admit his losses. Nobody does. I am willing to bet that in 10 years your return will be higher, but that there will be no way to verify this.

2. I absolutely get the jealousy. As my (older) brother said to my (younger) brother back in HS, "I am a grasshopper and you are an ant." When the grasshoppers do well, they do really well. But if you are an ant, you are an ant. Ants usually do better than grasshoppers over the long term, but even when they don't they could never have copied the grasshopper strategy anyway. It is what it is. You are better being who you are than trying to copy your brother.

Best of luck. You did well not to buy Tesla.
Wow, what a wonderful analogy! May I steal it?

"Ants do better than grasshoppers over the long haul - be an ant!"
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:52 pm
Grt2bOutdoors wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:46 pm
Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:48 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:46 pm
Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:40 pm

Not sure, but he is straight with me. If he says he made 54K, yes, he made 54K. He's a physician (married to another physician) and has deep pockets so it is entirely possible that he's got that kind of money in TSLA or dabbles in options (he's a gambler).
I was just trying to point out the size of the investment required for the gain. Looks like Tesla is up almost another 4.5% in after hours trading.
Well, I'm gonna smack him really hard if he tells me about it.... J/K.

I am not surprised at all. In fact, at Thanksgiving, when TSLA was in the 200s (I believe) he was pushing me to buy it. Said he'd pay for 50 shares as Christmas present for my son with autism. UGH. I can't believe I passed up on it.
Classic narcissist! If your brother was so well meaning he either could have outright gifted the shares to your son at the time without running it past you OR he could gift them from his holdings now. Has that happened? Only someone with those tendencies make the braggart comments. Even more scary is the thought that a physician is gambling, what else does he gamble with? Hmm? Emotions?
No, he's not a narcissist. And this is not about him but my emotions. It's about why I feel so bad about not investing in TSLA when I still had the chance. And he didn't call to "rub it in" but to tell me that he thinks TSLA has potential and if I still felt like I didn't want to buy it.
My apologies. TSLA is a lottery ticket, yeah I could have also bought it at $200 but I didn’t. There will always be another lottery ticket out there. It doesn’t have to be in tech, it could be in industrials, etc and the price could be $1 and it goes to $8 - 7 times your money just like Tesla right? Lots of potential but not all of them will pan out.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by sean.mcgrath »

Zillions wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:03 pm Wow, what a wonderful analogy! May I steal it?

"Ants do better than grasshoppers over the long haul - be an ant!"
Please steal it, it would feel like a legacy. It is inspired by my younger brother's eulogy at my older brother's funeral (older brother drank about one glass of wine a week, never smoked in his life, and was stunningly fit. Throat cancer didn't seem to care.).
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Zillions »

sean.mcgrath wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:09 pm
Zillions wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:03 pm Wow, what a wonderful analogy! May I steal it?

"Ants do better than grasshoppers over the long haul - be an ant!"
Please steal it, it would feel like a legacy. It is inspired by my younger brother's eulogy at my older brother's funeral (older brother drank about one glass of wine a week, never smoked in his life, and was stunningly fit. Throat cancer didn't seem to care.).
Condolences on your brother's loss. Cancer and autism should be eradicated from the face of the Earth. Hopefully, there will be a cure for both plagues some day, in the not-so-distant future.
Grt2bOutdoors wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:09 pm
Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:52 pm
Grt2bOutdoors wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:46 pm
Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:48 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:46 pm

I was just trying to point out the size of the investment required for the gain. Looks like Tesla is up almost another 4.5% in after hours trading.
Well, I'm gonna smack him really hard if he tells me about it.... J/K.

I am not surprised at all. In fact, at Thanksgiving, when TSLA was in the 200s (I believe) he was pushing me to buy it. Said he'd pay for 50 shares as Christmas present for my son with autism. UGH. I can't believe I passed up on it.
Classic narcissist! If your brother was so well meaning he either could have outright gifted the shares to your son at the time without running it past you OR he could gift them from his holdings now. Has that happened? Only someone with those tendencies make the braggart comments. Even more scary is the thought that a physician is gambling, what else does he gamble with? Hmm? Emotions?
No, he's not a narcissist. And this is not about him but my emotions. It's about why I feel so bad about not investing in TSLA when I still had the chance. And he didn't call to "rub it in" but to tell me that he thinks TSLA has potential and if I still felt like I didn't want to buy it.
My apologies. TSLA is a lottery ticket, yeah I could have also bought it at $200 but I didn’t. There will always be another lottery ticket out there. It doesn’t have to be in tech, it could be in industrials, etc and the price could be $1 and it goes to $8 - 7 times your money just like Tesla right? Lots of potential but not all of them will pan out.
True. I took his money and put it into VTSAX for my son. Portfolio up nicely since (although not as high as TSLA) so maybe I am stooooopid to whine I didn't buy TSLA with it in December! Greed! Just greed wanting returns without the potential disaster.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Third Son »

The bigger they are, the harder they fall. I am recently retired, having used a two fund portfolio for 80% of my investments. The other 20% was invested by a investment brokerage who made very little for me over the years. I still was able to retire comfortably at 60. Don't be fooled...there are very few quick ways to the top.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Kookaburra »

I’d like to see a corollary thread: do you feel like you’ve ever missed out due to not having the 3-fund portfolio?

I’m sure many started their investing journey “in the dark”, stock picking, relying on a financial advisor, actively managed funds, etc. I know I did. I sure wish I know about the three-fund from the start. Better late than never, but still.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by tadamsmar »

I feel that way almost every day.

Each day, I check the market and figure out which stock was the biggest gainer for that day.

Then I wallow in regret that I had not put all my money in that stock. I toss and turn all night. I am an exhausted wreak.

On the day that Telsa popped 13%. I did not get a wink of sleep!

:P
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by sean.mcgrath »

tadamsmar wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:29 pm I feel that way almost every day.

Each day, I check the market and figure out which stock was the biggest gainer for that day.

Then I wallow in regret that I had not put all my money in that stock. I toss and turn all night. I am an exhausted wreak.

:P
From what I have seen of your posts, Tad, I certainly hope that you have calculated the "lost profit" from not having invested in each day's best stock. :D
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by MarkBarb »

A lot of friends of mine enjoy going to Vegas. I hear a lot about how much money they won on each trip. It amazes me that Vegas can stay in business after listening to them. My point is that these people making money on hot tips brag a lot about their winners and don't mention their losers. If you did an honest comparison factoring trading costs and taxes, you'd find very few of them beat index funds. Passive investing gives you better returns for less work. You just lose the ability to brag about the killing you made in XYZ.
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Zillions
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Zillions »

tadamsmar wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:29 pm I feel that way almost every day.

Each day, I check the market and figure out which stock was the biggest gainer for that day.

Then I wallow in regret that I had not put all my money in that stock. I toss and turn all night. I am an exhausted wreak.

On the day that Telsa popped 13%. I did not get a wink of sleep!

:P
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
MarkBarb wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:32 pm A lot of friends of mine enjoy going to Vegas. I hear a lot about how much money they won on each trip. It amazes me that Vegas can stay in business after listening to them. My point is that these people making money on hot tips brag a lot about their winners and don't mention their losers. If you did an honest comparison factoring trading costs and taxes, you'd find very few of them beat index funds. Passive investing gives you better returns for less work. You just lose the ability to brag about the killing you made in XYZ.

Yes.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by shess »

Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:57 pm Does anyone worry about "missing out" because you are only invested in the 3-fund portfolio and hot tips abound? My brother made a killing in TSLA just today. Our portfolio is going to be up as well, of course, but not likely to the extent that he (brother) is. I would never take that kind of risk but admittedly am a bit jealous that he made a small fortune today.
I spent the 90's and 00's working my portfolio HARD, researching, researching, researching, learning all the stuff. I didn't do a ton of stock-picking, but I was always striving to be aware of all the trends and impacts to be in the right places before everyone else. In the latter part of the 00's, I learned a lot about Boglehead-style investing, to the point where I'd have recommended it for other less-capable people.

Then I lucked out from choice of employer and came into a windfall. I sat down to figure out what I was going to do, and .... I realized that it's one thing to swing for the fences when you don't have much and you can make it up quickly by working hard, but it's quite another thing to do so when you're already "there" and a mistake will require decades to recover from (if you ever do). When I didn't have a retirement-sized portfolio, taking risks to grow my portfolio seemed like a good and smart idea. When I did have a retirement-adjacent portfolio size, instead it felt more like "Wouldn't it be really stupid to have this much, and then lose it?"

For that reason, I sat down and analyzed all my wicked smart investments in the 90's and 00's, and realized I didn't really do any better than a 3-fund portfolio. Maybe I could make a positive argument with some squinting and wishful thinking, but I was working hard and stressing a lot for something which was only adding MAYBE a couple percent of total return over a 20-year period. I could have probably made more money by translating that work and stress into my career path rather than investing. So in the 2008 timeframe I used realized losses to rearrange my portfolio along 3-fund lines, and I can honestly say that I don't feel like I've been missing out AT ALL. In fact, I'm now more confident in my portfolio's ability to carry us, and retired early.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by RocketShipTech »

tadamsmar wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:29 pm I feel that way almost every day.

Each day, I check the market and figure out which stock was the biggest gainer for that day.

Then I wallow in regret that I had not put all my money in that stock. I toss and turn all night. I am an exhausted wreak.

On the day that Telsa popped 13%. I did not get a wink of sleep!

:P
It works for some people:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f=6AuXlLEZ
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by bottlecap »

Exactly the opposite. Anytime I’m not in it or something like it, I feel like I’m missing out.

You’re brother is going to have to be right almost every time to retain his "killing". Good luck.

JT
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Zillions »

shess wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:55 pm
Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:57 pm Does anyone worry about "missing out" because you are only invested in the 3-fund portfolio and hot tips abound? My brother made a killing in TSLA just today. Our portfolio is going to be up as well, of course, but not likely to the extent that he (brother) is. I would never take that kind of risk but admittedly am a bit jealous that he made a small fortune today.
I spent the 90's and 00's working my portfolio HARD, researching, researching, researching, learning all the stuff. I didn't do a ton of stock-picking, but I was always striving to be aware of all the trends and impacts to be in the right places before everyone else. In the latter part of the 00's, I learned a lot about Boglehead-style investing, to the point where I'd have recommended it for other less-capable people.

Then I lucked out from choice of employer and came into a windfall. I sat down to figure out what I was going to do, and .... I realized that it's one thing to swing for the fences when you don't have much and you can make it up quickly by working hard, but it's quite another thing to do so when you're already "there" and a mistake will require decades to recover from (if you ever do). When I didn't have a retirement-sized portfolio, taking risks to grow my portfolio seemed like a good and smart idea. When I did have a retirement-adjacent portfolio size, instead it felt more like "Wouldn't it be really stupid to have this much, and then lose it?"

For that reason, I sat down and analyzed all my wicked smart investments in the 90's and 00's, and realized I didn't really do any better than a 3-fund portfolio. Maybe I could make a positive argument with some squinting and wishful thinking, but I was working hard and stressing a lot for something which was only adding MAYBE a couple percent of total return over a 20-year period. I could have probably made more money by translating that work and stress into my career path rather than investing. So in the 2008 timeframe I used realized losses to rearrange my portfolio along 3-fund lines, and I can honestly say that I don't feel like I've been missing out AT ALL. In fact, I'm now more confident in my portfolio's ability to carry us, and retired early.
I think the point you made about "getting to the retirement portfolio and worrying about losing it all" is the key here.

My / our retirement portfolio is nowhere close to where we need it to be, which may be why I still have to fight the urge to chase "hot tips". Once we reach our magical number then I too would likely never feel the urge to play roulette. It has taken immense self control to be a committed Boglehead. I invested the money he gifted in VTSAX last Christmas and I will be doing the same every Christmas, even if he has ever more hotter tips for us. I am just being honest that it's not easy for us as our number is still so far off our target number.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:57 pm My brother made a killing in TSLA just today. Our portfolio is going to be up as well, of course, but not likely to the extent that he (brother) is. I would never take that kind of risk but admittedly am a bit jealous that he made a small fortune today.
So here's the thing.

Did he sell TSLA today?

If yes, then he did in fact make money/lock in his gains.

If he did that though, he really shouldn't be enamored with TSLA anymore, because he doesn't own it anymore. So he wouldn't care anymore about the performance of TSLA anymore, would he?

In fact, to sell it, communicates that you no longer believe in the future performance of the stock. Otherwise, if you thought it would go higher, you wouldn't sell it now. You'd sell it later, at an even higher price, right?

But wait. You say he didn't sell it today? He's just bragging about how much money he made?

Well if he didn't sell it, then he didn't make any money. Because if it goes back down tomorrow, then he made nothing. Worse yet, it could go so low as to lose him money (if the price falls below his original purchase price).

So he either sold and made a bunch of money (and by definition now thinks TSLAs best days are behind) or he didn't sell, and therefore really hasn't made anything at all.

which is it?
It's "Stay" the course, not Stray the Course. Buy and Hold works. You should really try it sometime. Get a plan: www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by wander »

I think you should feel happy for him. Let your brother win the money is still better than some strangers out there win it. :D
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Brianmcg321 »

You're only missing out in your mind. Everyone is a Buffet on paper. But when it comes time to actually put your money where your mouth is, people make terrible decisions, trade too often and have terrible returns.
Rules to investing: | 1. Don't lose money. | 2. Don't forget rule number 1.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Zillions »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:34 pm
Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:57 pm My brother made a killing in TSLA just today. Our portfolio is going to be up as well, of course, but not likely to the extent that he (brother) is. I would never take that kind of risk but admittedly am a bit jealous that he made a small fortune today.
So here's the thing.

Did he sell TSLA today?

If yes, then he did in fact make money/lock in his gains.

If he did that though, he really shouldn't be enamored with TSLA anymore, because he doesn't own it anymore. So he wouldn't care anymore about the performance of TSLA anymore, would he?

In fact, to sell it, communicates that you no longer believe in the future performance of the stock. Otherwise, if you thought it would go higher, you wouldn't sell it now. You'd sell it later, at an even higher price, right?

But wait. You say he didn't sell it today? He's just bragging about how much money he made?

Well if he didn't sell it, then he didn't make any money. Because if it goes back down tomorrow, then he made nothing. Worse yet, it could go so low as to lose him money (if the price falls below his original purchase price).

So he either sold and made a bunch of money (and by definition now thinks TSLAs best days are behind) or he didn't sell, and therefore really hasn't made anything at all.

which is it?
Highly likely, he's holding on to it because he asked me to "reconsider".
wander wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:20 pm I think you should feel happy for him. Let your brother win the money is still better than some strangers out there win it. :D
Yeah, trying to pinch the envy out of my head. I'm happy for all - family or not - who made a killing yesterday!
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

Zillions wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:24 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:34 pm
Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:57 pm My brother made a killing in TSLA just today. Our portfolio is going to be up as well, of course, but not likely to the extent that he (brother) is. I would never take that kind of risk but admittedly am a bit jealous that he made a small fortune today.
So here's the thing.

Did he sell TSLA today?

If yes, then he did in fact make money/lock in his gains.

If he did that though, he really shouldn't be enamored with TSLA anymore, because he doesn't own it anymore. So he wouldn't care anymore about the performance of TSLA anymore, would he?

In fact, to sell it, communicates that you no longer believe in the future performance of the stock. Otherwise, if you thought it would go higher, you wouldn't sell it now. You'd sell it later, at an even higher price, right?

But wait. You say he didn't sell it today? He's just bragging about how much money he made?

Well if he didn't sell it, then he didn't make any money. Because if it goes back down tomorrow, then he made nothing. Worse yet, it could go so low as to lose him money (if the price falls below his original purchase price).

So he either sold and made a bunch of money (and by definition now thinks TSLAs best days are behind) or he didn't sell, and therefore really hasn't made anything at all.

which is it?
Highly likely, he's holding on to it because he asked me to "reconsider".
wander wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:20 pm I think you should feel happy for him. Let your brother win the money is still better than some strangers out there win it. :D
Yeah, trying to pinch the envy out of my head. I'm happy for all - family or not - who made a killing yesterday!
but you missed my point. they didn't make a killing if they didn't sell. they didn't make anything until they sold. if the company goes out of business the next day, week, month, year, they would lose everything. they only would have made anything if they sold. until they sold, they only have profits on paper, not real. Don't take my word for it. Go talk to the investors in Enron or any other company who's stock went up up up until it went down down down.
It's "Stay" the course, not Stray the Course. Buy and Hold works. You should really try it sometime. Get a plan: www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Hustlinghustling »

Take comfort that you’re simply not hearing about the losses on the other bets he prob took which are not worth mentioning till they get back in the black. Hopefully the Tesla gains are enough to cover.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by sf_tech_saver »

Never.

My big upside comes from my career.

Passive investing is just the best low-cost way of investing what I earn in my career.

Being a semi-professional (gambler?) investor has zero appeal to me regardless of the anecdotal 'wins' from that approach.
VTI is a modern marvel
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Orbuculum Nongata »

Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:57 pm Hello Everyone,

Does anyone worry about "missing out" because you are only invested in the 3-fund portfolio and hot tips abound? My brother made a killing in TSLA just today. Our portfolio is going to be up as well, of course, but not likely to the extent that he (brother) is. I would never take that kind of risk but admittedly am a bit jealous that he made a small fortune today.

Anyone else?

Thanks.
I wonder how your brother’s other invested assets fared on the same day. The whole story matters.

To your question: Yes. I missed out on some volatility over the past few months.
Potential - distraction = performance.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by shess »

Zillions wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:23 pm
shess wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:55 pm
Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:57 pm Does anyone worry about "missing out" because you are only invested in the 3-fund portfolio and hot tips abound? My brother made a killing in TSLA just today. Our portfolio is going to be up as well, of course, but not likely to the extent that he (brother) is. I would never take that kind of risk but admittedly am a bit jealous that he made a small fortune today.
I spent the 90's and 00's working my portfolio HARD, researching, researching, researching, learning all the stuff. I didn't do a ton of stock-picking, but I was always striving to be aware of all the trends and impacts to be in the right places before everyone else. In the latter part of the 00's, I learned a lot about Boglehead-style investing, to the point where I'd have recommended it for other less-capable people.

Then I lucked out from choice of employer and came into a windfall. I sat down to figure out what I was going to do, and .... I realized that it's one thing to swing for the fences when you don't have much and you can make it up quickly by working hard, but it's quite another thing to do so when you're already "there" and a mistake will require decades to recover from (if you ever do). When I didn't have a retirement-sized portfolio, taking risks to grow my portfolio seemed like a good and smart idea. When I did have a retirement-adjacent portfolio size, instead it felt more like "Wouldn't it be really stupid to have this much, and then lose it?"

For that reason, I sat down and analyzed all my wicked smart investments in the 90's and 00's, and realized I didn't really do any better than a 3-fund portfolio. Maybe I could make a positive argument with some squinting and wishful thinking, but I was working hard and stressing a lot for something which was only adding MAYBE a couple percent of total return over a 20-year period. I could have probably made more money by translating that work and stress into my career path rather than investing. So in the 2008 timeframe I used realized losses to rearrange my portfolio along 3-fund lines, and I can honestly say that I don't feel like I've been missing out AT ALL. In fact, I'm now more confident in my portfolio's ability to carry us, and retired early.
I think the point you made about "getting to the retirement portfolio and worrying about losing it all" is the key here.

My / our retirement portfolio is nowhere close to where we need it to be, which may be why I still have to fight the urge to chase "hot tips". Once we reach our magical number then I too would likely never feel the urge to play roulette. It has taken immense self control to be a committed Boglehead. I invested the money he gifted in VTSAX last Christmas and I will be doing the same every Christmas, even if he has ever more hotter tips for us. I am just being honest that it's not easy for us as our number is still so far off our target number.
I don't think reaching a plausible retirement portfolio changed the facts, but I think it changed my opinions about things. Previously, I thought that it was super important to really work hard on my portfolio - but once I sat down and really looked at things, I think I can honestly say that I didn't ACTUALLY improve the outcome by working hard on my portfolio. I think the vast majority of the value I added was in living below my means and saving a lot. I'd have had more positive impact on my life by devoting most of that energy to a fitness program or learning a second language or something.

I don't know how to turn that into actionable advice. I mean, you feel what you feel, and sometimes you have to do something even if you know that doing something isn't likely to help (*). Part of what helped me to see through my false impressions of my abilities on this front was being on a mailing list about these topics with a bunch of people who I knew were smart in another field of endeavor, and watching them routinely make claims which were not borne out in practice. After awhile, I started to think ... what if *I* am one of those smart people who's not really seeing the reality? But, to be honest, I had plenty of evidence before then, having read all sorts of books by Bogle and Bernstein and others. I just needed enough push to get over my own assumptions.

Another thing that helped me tamp down the inclination towards hot tips was to keep a logbook of investing ideas. It helped in two ways. First, keeping a logbook means you can go back and see that you had bad ideas amidst the good ideas. Second, you can go back and see the lack of confidence in decision-making. For me, over time this ended up kind of independently deriving the principle that most of the battle is in having a reasonably objective financial plan which can be used to inform decisions without involving a bunch of emotional baggage.

(*) Today my portfolio is slightly more complicated than it needs to be for this reason. This intentionally helps scratch an itch for me, which prevents me from doing something REALLY stupid. Objectively, I know that this is kind of silly, and every few years I step back and analyze things and find that I can trim something out which previously I was very committed to.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Tamarind »

Nope. I kept an eye on the stock picks I had prior to converting to three fund portfolio. They were chosen largely because my father thought those were recession proof sectors and they had fallen a lot in 2008.

Absolutely horrendous performance. Only one has done well at all and at least one has gone bankrupt. Honestly I should convince him to hire on to an investment bank as an anti-stock-picker. The more convinced he is that a stock is a hot thing, the worse it appears to do.

I am pleased that I got an early lesson in not knowing anything.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

...concentrating your portfolio in a few stocks maximizes your chances of getting rich. Unfortunately, it also maximizes your chance of
becoming poor. Owning the whole market—indexing—minimizes your chances of both outcomes by guaranteeing you the market return.
source: The Four Pillars of Investing by William Bernstein, pg. 102.
"Hot stocks can make you rich. But they probably won't.":

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/12/your ... -wont.html

how good are you at finding a needle in the haystack?

Anyone can find one after the fact.

But you need to find it before the fact to profit.
It's "Stay" the course, not Stray the Course. Buy and Hold works. You should really try it sometime. Get a plan: www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Rowan Oak »

I only think about how I missed out during all the years I didn't have The Three-Fund Portfolio. Wish I'd figured it out sooner, but better late than never.

As Rick Ferri puts it: The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by shess »

Rowan Oak wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:06 pm As Rick Ferri puts it: The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.
That, um, yeah, spot on. But I spent like 10 years knowing everything I know now, and yet refusing to choose what I choose now. I'm just glad I didn't burn myself too badly at any point!
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by DanFrancis »

Sounds like we have the same brother! LOL. I don't feel like I missed out. Instead, I worry about a market correction when he might sustain a much larger loss than me. He is in his 60's and is 100% stocks. We frequently share our investment ideas and goals, but each of us is happy with his own decisions. I'm sure he thinks I'm too conservative and vice versa.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by tibbitts »

RomeoMustDie wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:35 pm
helloeveryone wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:26 pm
Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:57 pm Hello Everyone,

Does anyone worry about "missing out" because you are only invested in the 3-fund portfolio and hot tips abound? My brother made a killing in TSLA just today. Our portfolio is going to be up as well, of course, but not likely to the extent that he (brother) is. I would never take that kind of risk but admittedly am a bit jealous that he made a small fortune today.

Anyone else?

Thanks.
Unless your brother sold all his TSLA holdings he didn't really "make a killing". I hear people say that all the time at work when CNBC is on, the ticker says so and so company is up "x" percent. Then they say man I just made $x dollars. But until they sell they actually haven't made the money.
Anyone holding a sufficient portion of QQQ is way ahead of the bogle 3 fund portfolio. Tech also seems to be the macro trend for the US and 100% QQQ backtests with superior returns to VTI.

Is it even speculation at this point to invest in tech if already weighting to the US whose economy is already driven by tech sector?
If it's not speculation now, it definitely wasn't in 1999. Have you held QQQ since then? If not, why not?
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Lazareth »

I chased performance for two decades... in individual stocks and mutual funds. For every winner (and there were winners!) there was also a loser, or two losers. We have now had a Schwab 3-fund portfolio across all accounts for two years and I couldn't be happier! My Schwab 3-fund portfolio is UP for the year despite the Covid debacle, and I didn't loose sleep throughout it.
Last edited by Lazareth on Sat Jul 11, 2020 7:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
a/66, retired, married, enjoy p/t employment.
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by RomeoMustDie »

tibbitts wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:08 pm
RomeoMustDie wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:35 pm
helloeveryone wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:26 pm
Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:57 pm Hello Everyone,

Does anyone worry about "missing out" because you are only invested in the 3-fund portfolio and hot tips abound? My brother made a killing in TSLA just today. Our portfolio is going to be up as well, of course, but not likely to the extent that he (brother) is. I would never take that kind of risk but admittedly am a bit jealous that he made a small fortune today.

Anyone else?

Thanks.
Unless your brother sold all his TSLA holdings he didn't really "make a killing". I hear people say that all the time at work when CNBC is on, the ticker says so and so company is up "x" percent. Then they say man I just made $x dollars. But until they sell they actually haven't made the money.
Anyone holding a sufficient portion of QQQ is way ahead of the bogle 3 fund portfolio. Tech also seems to be the macro trend for the US and 100% QQQ backtests with superior returns to VTI.

Is it even speculation at this point to invest in tech if already weighting to the US whose economy is already driven by tech sector?
If it's not speculation now, it definitely wasn't in 1999. Have you held QQQ since then? If not, why not?
In some sense, tech crashes are a positive for long term buy and hold investors who get to accumulate on the cheap.
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Zillions
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Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Post by Zillions »

RomeoMustDie wrote: Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:36 am
tibbitts wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:08 pm
RomeoMustDie wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:35 pm
helloeveryone wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:26 pm
Zillions wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:57 pm Hello Everyone,

Does anyone worry about "missing out" because you are only invested in the 3-fund portfolio and hot tips abound? My brother made a killing in TSLA just today. Our portfolio is going to be up as well, of course, but not likely to the extent that he (brother) is. I would never take that kind of risk but admittedly am a bit jealous that he made a small fortune today.

Anyone else?

Thanks.
Unless your brother sold all his TSLA holdings he didn't really "make a killing". I hear people say that all the time at work when CNBC is on, the ticker says so and so company is up "x" percent. Then they say man I just made $x dollars. But until they sell they actually haven't made the money.
Anyone holding a sufficient portion of QQQ is way ahead of the bogle 3 fund portfolio. Tech also seems to be the macro trend for the US and 100% QQQ backtests with superior returns to VTI.

Is it even speculation at this point to invest in tech if already weighting to the US whose economy is already driven by tech sector?
If it's not speculation now, it definitely wasn't in 1999. Have you held QQQ since then? If not, why not?
In some sense, tech crashes are a positive for long term buy and hold investors who get to accumulate on the cheap.
What concerns me is the valuations of tech companies and the ginourmous P/Es of some of these companies (including TSLA). I understand that growth companies may have steep valuations but a company like NKLA that hasn't sold anything yet has a P/E ratio of infinity AND is being cheered on! Well!

Also, due to a series of financial mistakes when we were younger, my husband & I are late starters with a small nest egg. So I am very wary although I might have been tempted to gamble had I - like him - been a doctor married to another doctor. My family has wildness in our blood, and it's taken a lot of hard knocks + Murphy moving into my house for me to "reform" and be mature.

I suspect that tech in general is due for a major pullback and given my luck - can't seem to evict Murphy from my couch - don't want to bet on it. VTI + VXUS is my thing now, although in the moment I did regret not jumping on his "hot tip" at Thanksgiving.
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