PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

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Miriam2
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio

Post by Miriam2 »

midareff wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:07 am
Miriam2 wrote: Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:25 pm
nanameg wrote: It would have be wonderful if I had this service and this relationship before I locked in 250k in losses late March but what’s done is done and paying for something I don’t need now because I needed it then doesn’t make sense. Recency bias. :)
But what happens if late March returns again and you're up at 3:00 am, unable to sleep because you couldn't take it another night? Will you cash out again? Yes, you likely will if left alone . . .

. . . because remember in this thread you observed you went to PAS expressly "to find a way to insure" that you would "never do that again" and further, you said, "I don't trust myself not to." - the "that" is cashing out 2.2 million at 3 am one morning in March because you couldn't sleep and couldn't take it another night.

And we're not judging or blaming you - we've all been up with similar sleepless nights during financial earthquakes. You are fortunate you recognize your risk limits.

Isn't it worth the small fee PAS charges to insure you won't cash out again? Next time may be worse. It could be a bigger drop for a longer period, and you might be newly retired, panicking over your investment balance or sequence of returns risk :shock:
Not all of us Miriam. ....
Haha! Then there are those very fortunate Bogleheads who have set their asset allocation to their liking, aggressive enough to make money and conservative enough to sleep at night and with enough extra :moneybag to take wonderful vacations with their family :D
John Bogle, "The Twelve Pillars of [Financial] Wisdom" - Pillar 4: Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained. Eschewing the risk of stocks, therefore, carries a risk of its own.
Silence Dogood
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by Silence Dogood »

LadyGeek wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:33 am An advisor acts in a fiduciary capacity. They can act on your behalf, but they are not you. You can always override their decisions.

For example, you don't need an advisor's permission to move your money. If your money is held at your advisor's financial institution (mine was at Ameriprise many years ago), all I needed to do was sign the Vanguard account transfer authorization forms and Vanguard pulled the money into Vanguard. I informed my advisor after-the-fact.
Interesting. Thank you for this explanation, LadyGeek.

So I guess what Outer Marker wrote is true.
Miriam2
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio

Post by Miriam2 »

Silence Dogood wrote:
Outer Marker wrote: And, just because your PAS tells you not to do it, doesn't guarantee you won't do it.
Is this true? I thought the advisor takes control of the portfolio?
Your PAS advisor needs to know whether you plan to buy or sell or add to funds in the portfolio that PAS is managing - otherwise what you do may throw off the asset allocation or derail the likelihood of financially achieving the goals that you and the advisor set out.

If you make changes in the portfolio without PAS knowledge, there could be difficulties on both ends. You can make changes or suggest changes - but you need to let them know ahead of time so they can give you their opinion. After all, you're using them for their advice.

And this is not unique to Vanguard PAS, probably all or most financial advisors have the same requirement.

Also, you may have other accounts that PAS is not managing for you, such as 401k's and HSA's, as well as real estate and other income or investments, but PAS needs to know about those accounts as well so that they can have them in mind when they design your Vanguard portfolio so it fits into your portfolio life as a whole.
John Bogle, "The Twelve Pillars of [Financial] Wisdom" - Pillar 4: Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained. Eschewing the risk of stocks, therefore, carries a risk of its own.
GMT-8
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by GMT-8 »

At the risk of offending you, I note that earlier in this thread someone noted that your (remaining) assets are in the $2.5M range.
I see from a quick search that the average IRA balance for a person facing retirement in Q1 2020 is $98k.
Perhaps you need to take a deep breath, thank God or your lucky stars for your good fortune, and relax.
And stay off the Vanguard website for a few months.

Best wishes,

GMT
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nanameg
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

Silence dogwood,

Yes, sorry I forgot to post the recommended 2018 PAS portfolio as you requested

55/45 AA

Total International stock 22% of portfolio
Total international bond 14% of portfolio

Total US stock 33%
Total US bond 31%
Silence Dogood
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by Silence Dogood »

nanameg wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:26 pm 55/45 AA

Total International stock 22% of portfolio
Total international bond 14% of portfolio

Total US stock 33%
Total US bond 31%
So you were at 55/45 when you sold back in March?

And now you are at 45/55?
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nanameg
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

I was closer to 60/40. I’m not an avid rebalancer.

In retrospect it was the speed of the drop that got me in March..and also that I just was not prepared for losses...I really had no idea what the stock market risk really was. Lulled into complacency over these past 10 years or so.

Now I’m more like 50/50.
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nanameg
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

Sorry I got your user name wrong. Dogwoods are the flower of our town and maybe even state...that’s what I saw looking quickly.

I see your name is more like Hawthorne than like CT.
Silence Dogood
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by Silence Dogood »

nanameg wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:16 pm I was closer to 60/40. I’m not an avid rebalancer.

In retrospect it was the speed of the drop that got me in March..and also that I just was not prepared for losses...I really had no idea what the stock market risk really was. Lulled into complacency over these past 10 years or so.

Now I’m more like 50/50.
I can't help but wonder if you would have been better off choosing a target retirement fund, back in 2018, instead of the individual funds.

Having said that, are you sure that 50/50 isn't too aggressive for you?

You don't want to learn the wrong lesson from the March crash - the stock market can stay down for a long time.
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nanameg
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

Silence Dogood wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 9:08 pm
nanameg wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:16 pm I was closer to 60/40. I’m not an avid rebalancer.

In retrospect it was the speed of the drop that got me in March..and also that I just was not prepared for losses...I really had no idea what the stock market risk really was. Lulled into complacency over these past 10 years or so.

Now I’m more like 50/50.
I can't help but wonder if you would have been better off choosing a target retirement fund, back in 2018, instead of the individual funds.

Having said that, are you sure that 50/50 isn't too aggressive for you?

You don't want to learn the wrong lesson from the March crash - the stock market can stay down for a long time.
I’ve thought that too about being in the TDF ...It would have been great if PAS had said yes, good idea if you’re not going to do PAS in 2018 go with a TDF, rather than no TDF too expensive without having admiral funds.

But I may have panicked just the same and what’s done is done. Kiss that ~200k good bye forever...sunk cost.

We had a psychological limit of loss that was way too high. I understand that better now and I think 50/50 is ok.Plus my husbands practice has rebounded, we got some of the PPE and stimulus money and may not even have lost much ground.

But I take your point and will continue to mull it over. The advisor said there is not much difference between 45/55 and 50/50. He had origin recommended the 45/55.

We’ll be talking to him about it all again in 2 weeks
Silence Dogood
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by Silence Dogood »

nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 6:15 am But I may have panicked just the same and what’s done is done.
Were you considering Vanguard Target Retirement 2020? That would have had you at ~50/50 during the March crash.

You "may have panicked just the same" at 50/50... but now you're at 50/50?

Perhaps 50/50 is too aggressive for you?
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nanameg
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

I don’t think I can panic twice. It cost too much. And I understand more now. I understand now something I didn’t in March..something very simple...we have more than enough money saved, I don’t need it all at once and we’re going to be retired for a long time...hopefully.

But I do take your point and I will think and read and talk more to the advisor about AA.

As I said he recommended 45/55 and then said 50/50 really doesn’t “ feel” very different from the 45/55 he recommended.

I asked about 50/50 because my simplest easiest portfolio that is still transparent and controllable by me ( which I grant may be a bad thing ) is 50/50 US stock/ bond and that’s what I have in the 401k he can’t manage and he said “ it’s fine”.

I plan to discuss much more about this with him in 2 weeks.
dbr
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by dbr »

nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:15 am

As I said he recommended 45/55 and then said 50/50 really doesn’t “ feel” very different from the 45/55 he recommended.

Based on mathematics those two ratios are not different enough for anyone to worry about. Getting hung up on 5% differences in stock/bond ratio means any kind of rational planning comes to a screeching halt. But it would drive me crazy for an advisor to say it doesn't "feel" different.

Also, getting hung up on whether or not the investment selection is a TDF or a set if individual funds brings rational planning to a screeching halt.

In Portfolio Visualizer after 32 years you have 6% more money one way than the other but the worst drawdown you experience is -25% rather than -22%. In investing differences like that are nothing.

In FireCalc with all the default settings except stock allocation there are7 failures out of 120 examples at 45% stocks and 6 failures at 50% stocks. That is just no difference at all. If you want zero failures you can get there by lowering the withdrawal rate from 4% to 3.71%.
retiredjg
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by retiredjg »

nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:15 am I don’t think I can panic twice.
Here is something to mull over while you wait.

It's not just about panicing so much that you sell in a down market. It is also about your ability to be comfortable and happy with what you choose when the bad times do come.

You should not want a portfolio that is stressful even if you can "gut it out" and stay the course. "Gutting it out" through a 1 hour procedure at the dentist is one thing. "Gutting it out" for a 12 to 24 months downturn is another thing. It takes a toll on your mind and your body. And your relationships. :(

Instead, you should want a portfolio that allows you to go on with other parts of your life without worry. You want to be able to sleep at night without worry. You want to spend more time thinking about your grandkid(s) than your portfolio. In fact, you should want a portfolio that you hardly think about at all.

I know you want 50/50 but a large motivation for that seems to be that the math is just easier. You can pretty much see things at a glance. I'd suggest that your temperament is more suited for moving the other direction. I think you'll be a lot happier with 40% stock (or even less) in the next downturn than 50%.

Your money should be a source of comfort in your life, not something that causes you stress.
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nanameg
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

That’s very much on point ...thank you.

We’ve been invested since 2002 and this is the first time I’ve reacted to the market. In 2008 I didn’t even flinch. We’re at a different point, near retirement and with a bigger portfolio. My husbands dental practice was also hit this time.He was shut down completely and we were afraid permanently at the time.

I don’t know if it’s temperament as much as lack of knowledge that did me in this time. I mean the lack of knowledge about how much we actually need in retirement ( I have a guesstimate now) and a broader sense of market history.

But I hear what you’re saying and I will take it seriously. Thank you.
dbr
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by dbr »

retiredjg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:47 am
nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:15 am I don’t think I can panic twice.
Here is something to mull over while you wait.

It's not just about panicing so much that you sell in a down market. It is also about your ability to be comfortable and happy with what you choose when the bad times do come.

You should not want a portfolio that is stressful even if you can "gut it out" and stay the course. "Gutting it out" through a 1 hour procedure at the dentist is one thing. "Gutting it out" for a 12 to 24 months downturn is another thing. It takes a toll on your mind and your body. And your relationships. :(

Instead, you should want a portfolio that allows you to go on with other parts of your life without worry. You want to be able to sleep at night without worry. You want to spend more time thinking about your grandkid(s) than your portfolio. In fact, you should want a portfolio that you hardly think about at all.

I know you want 50/50 but a large motivation for that seems to be that the math is just easier. You can pretty much see things at a glance. I'd suggest that your temperament is more suited for moving the other direction. I think you'll be a lot happier with 40% stock (or even less) in the next downturn than 50%.

Your money should be a source of comfort in your life, not something that causes you stress.
It could actually be true that even tens like 40/60 "seem" more natural than 45/55.

The next "small integer" step from 50/50 is 33/67, but that one is just so awkward. That 40/60 is not just a step in dividing up by ten but also in dividing up by five. I think it is a nice, comfortable number. Maybe it isn't a surprise that on the other side 60/40 has been a "go to" for a long time.

These comments, by the way, are not actually facetious. Lots of reading would suggest this little relationship of numerology to comfort is real.
dbr
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by dbr »

nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:06 am
I don’t know if it’s temperament as much as lack of knowledge that did me in this time. I mean the lack of knowledge about how much we actually need in retirement ( I have a guesstimate now) and a broader sense of market history.
I think you will find that shift is far more important than you could ever have imagined.
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by LadyGeek »

dbr wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:07 am It could actually be true that even tens like 40/60 "seem" more natural than 45/55.

The next "small integer" step from 50/50 is 33/67, but that one is just so awkward. That 40/60 is not just a step in dividing up by ten but also in dividing up by five. I think it is a nice, comfortable number. Maybe it isn't a surprise that on the other side 60/40 has been a "go to" for a long time.

These comments, by the way, are not actually facetious. Lots of reading would suggest this little relationship of numerology to comfort is real.
From a financial perspective, asset allocations should be done in 5% steps. From another thread:
LadyGeek wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:49 am For new investors - Tracking your asset allocations to the nearest 5% is fine. There's no need for anything more precise, such as 1% or even 0.1%. It's a LOT more work for little added benefit.

For example, Fund A has 12.1% of your portfolio and Fund B has 1.3%. Adjust Fund A to 10% and remove Fund B (0%) which will simplify your portfolio. (Adjust the other funds in your portfolio to get a total of 100%.)

^^^ This is a numerical example, not what the OP should do. Follow the advice in this thread, then use the above rule-of-thumb when you're ready to do something with your fund allocations.
With emotional support from numerology, there's nothing wrong with 60/40, 50/50, or 40/60.
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nanameg
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

dbr wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:07 amThese comments, by the way, are not actually facetious. Lots of reading would suggest this little relationship of numerology to comfort is real.
[ quote fixed by admin LadyGeek]

I’m sure that’s true. I was thinking that might be next on my list...to read about the behavioral and neurological aspects of investing. I know there’s at least one book in that area that’s suggested on the boglehead getting started page.

The other piece of this panic was my husband telling me about pts who had “ cashed out” in December of 2019. He kept asking ...do we have enough? Have we hit that number? I had that rattling around in my head late March...others have cashed out even before this ?will we lose it all?

We have a broader picture now. He knows he can retire. He wants to do it on his terms and he’s not ready yet. But he knows he can. PAS was worth it just for that...I had to tie him down to get him on the phone with the advisor for that question and I needed a daughter to be witness to it too.
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nanameg
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

Sorry ...I still don’t know how to just quote small portions of posts rather than the entire post.

I’ll need that daughter to help me with that too.
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nanameg
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

No one in either of our families ever invested or talked about investing. My father had a pension and a savings account...my mother in law died without a cent and in debt.

It’s a new world for us and we’re learning and passing the info on to our children in real time.
dbr
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by dbr »

nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:37 am Sorry ...I still don’t know how to just quote small portions of posts rather than the entire post.

I’ll need that daughter to help me with that too.
No problems. It is clear enough.

If you want to get into psychology then maybe it is time for my little joke that obviously asset allocations should not be based on simple integers but rather on prime numbers. For example 53/47 is clearly preferred to all other asset allocations. It doesn't matter if that is stocks/bond or bond/stocks.

Actually there are 12 choices of prime number pairs between 0 and 100 while there are only 11 pairs of multiples of 10 between 0 and 100.
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nanameg
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

Thanks to this forum!
tibbitts
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio

Post by tibbitts »

nanameg wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:54 am
little_star wrote: Sun Jun 21, 2020 11:11 pm I agree with dbr. In four days you have gone from asking a question about the different allocations in the two IRA accounts to deciding that you do not want to follow the advice provided by PAS at all, since you now disagree regarding the need for international funds. However, in your post below, you state that you want your life back. The way to get your life back is to find an advisor and follow the advice given. Set it and forget it. While it is possible to DIY regarding the fund allocations, your continual second guessing and past actions indicate that you need someone to discuss your financial decisions with before you implement them. That is the role of a financial advisor. The extra cost for not 100% DIY provides the peace of mind of having had the consultation before you implement something that may have even bigger financial consequences than paying the advising fee. Not everyone is tempermentally suited to DIY finances, just like not everyone is tempermentally suited to DIY home improvements. Recognizing that you are better served by paying the small fees for a PAS (or other) advisor should be one step toward getting your life back.
nanameg wrote: Sun Jun 21, 2020 9:08 am Thank you. Yes it’s very difficult to be on your own with this, especially since it’s my husband who has been working the last 12 years. We’ve had bad experiences with “ help “before too which led me to Bogle in the first place 18 years ago.

Unfortunately he was as panicked as I was and agreed to the cash out.

I will spend more time with PAS but I’m beginning to lean toward the fund of funds approach...I want my life back.
We had a very bad experience with a financial advisor in the early 2000’s and lost half our college fund for our children, just when we were going to begin to use it. I had “ set it and forget “ with him. I had no idea what I was doing and just trusted him ...disaster.

It’s very hard to trust anyone again. And now , since my panic in March, I don’t trust myself either.

I’m very, very grateful for all the supportive and intelligent responses here. I’ll stay with PAS and keep learning.
I'm not sure what happened to you in the 2000s but the early 2000s were a disaster for a lot of us and it had nothing to do with using an advisor or not. Often the damage from advisors is only evident over long periods, when the fees and - maybe - bad trading decisions compound.
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nanameg
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

dbr wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:49 am
nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:37 am Sorry ...I still don’t know how to just quote small portions of posts rather than the entire post.

I’ll need that daughter to help me with that too.
No problems. It is clear enough.

If you want to get into psychology then maybe it is time for my little joke that obviously asset allocations should not be based on simple integers but rather on prime numbers. For example 53/47 is clearly preferred to all other asset allocations. It doesn't matter if that is stocks/bond or bond/stocks.

Actually there are 12 choices of prime number pairs between 0 and 100 while there are only 11 pairs of multiples of 10 between 0 and 100.
Haha
A unique way of looking at things. Any number theory to help decide on international? That would be the ultimate liberation for this forum.
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nanameg
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio

Post by nanameg »

tibbitts wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:31 am
nanameg wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:54 am
little_star wrote: Sun Jun 21, 2020 11:11 pm I agree with dbr. In four days you have gone from asking a question about the different allocations in the two IRA accounts to deciding that you do not want to follow the advice provided by PAS at all, since you now disagree regarding the need for international funds. However, in your post below, you state that you want your life back. The way to get your life back is to find an advisor and follow the advice given. Set it and forget it. While it is possible to DIY regarding the fund allocations, your continual second guessing and past actions indicate that you need someone to discuss your financial decisions with before you implement them. That is the role of a financial advisor. The extra cost for not 100% DIY provides the peace of mind of having had the consultation before you implement something that may have even bigger financial consequences than paying the advising fee. Not everyone is tempermentally suited to DIY finances, just like not everyone is tempermentally suited to DIY home improvements. Recognizing that you are better served by paying the small fees for a PAS (or other) advisor should be one step toward getting your life back.
nanameg wrote: Sun Jun 21, 2020 9:08 am Thank you. Yes it’s very difficult to be on your own with this, especially since it’s my husband who has been working the last 12 years. We’ve had bad experiences with “ help “before too which led me to Bogle in the first place 18 years ago.

Unfortunately he was as panicked as I was and agreed to the cash out.

I will spend more time with PAS but I’m beginning to lean toward the fund of funds approach...I want my life back.
We had a very bad experience with a financial advisor in the early 2000’s and lost half our college fund for our children, just when we were going to begin to use it. I had “ set it and forget “ with him. I had no idea what I was doing and just trusted him ...disaster.

It’s very hard to trust anyone again. And now , since my panic in March, I don’t trust myself either.

I’m very, very grateful for all the supportive and intelligent responses here. I’ll stay with PAS and keep learning.
I'm not sure what happened to you in the 2000s but the early 2000s were a disaster for a lot of us and it had nothing to do with using an advisor or not. Often the damage from advisors is only evident over long periods, when the fees and - maybe - bad trading decisions compound.
Our college fund got sliced in half just when we needed it that’s what happened. Disaster...secondary to an insurance broker masquerading as a “ financial advisor” .

We should have been out of that stock fund he put us in long before. This is why I’m allergic to advisors of any stripe.

But the good thing is I stumbled onto Bogle after that.

Too bad I didn’t stumble on to bogleheads earlier than late March.

Live and learn.
dbr
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by dbr »

nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:35 am
dbr wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:49 am
nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:37 am Sorry ...I still don’t know how to just quote small portions of posts rather than the entire post.

I’ll need that daughter to help me with that too.
No problems. It is clear enough.

If you want to get into psychology then maybe it is time for my little joke that obviously asset allocations should not be based on simple integers but rather on prime numbers. For example 53/47 is clearly preferred to all other asset allocations. It doesn't matter if that is stocks/bond or bond/stocks.

Actually there are 12 choices of prime number pairs between 0 and 100 while there are only 11 pairs of multiples of 10 between 0 and 100.
Haha
A unique way of looking at things. Any number theory to help decide on international? That would be the ultimate liberation for this forum.
Actually the result is interesting and very (?????) helpful. All sets of three prime numbers that add to 100 include 2 (2,19,71--2/31/67--2,37,61). So the question is should we not invest in international at all thinking the 2 should be the international. Or should we assign the 2 to bonds in an all stock portfolio and pick international from the choices 19, 31, 37, 61, and 67.
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nanameg
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

dbr wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:41 am
nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:35 am
dbr wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:49 am
nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:37 am Sorry ...I still don’t know how to just quote small portions of posts rather than the entire post.

I’ll need that daughter to help me with that too.
No problems. It is clear enough.

If you want to get into psychology then maybe it is time for my little joke that obviously asset allocations should not be based on simple integers but rather on prime numbers. For example 53/47 is clearly preferred to all other asset allocations. It doesn't matter if that is stocks/bond or bond/stocks.

Actually there are 12 choices of prime number pairs between 0 and 100 while there are only 11 pairs of multiples of 10 between 0 and 100.
Haha
A unique way of looking at things. Any number theory to help decide on international? That would be the ultimate liberation for this forum.
Actually the result is interesting and very (?????) helpful. All sets of three prime numbers that add to 100 include 2 (2,19,71--2/31/67--2,37,61). So the question is should we not invest in international at all thinking the 2 should be the international. Or should we assign the 2 to bonds in an all stock portfolio and pick international from the choices 19, 31, 37, 61, and 67.
Ha! I’m leaning toward the first ...but wouldn’t it be nice if there wasn’t a second option at all!
dbr
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio

Post by dbr »

nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:39 am
Our college fund got sliced in half just when we needed it that’s what happened. Disaster...secondary to an insurance broker masquerading as a “ financial advisor” .
An interesting question about that is whether or not you ended up with more money after being cut in half than if you had invested more conservatively. It is actually a planning problem if early success in the plan caused you to cut back on saving. On the other hand you would have had enough in a more conservative allocation, but it would have taken more savings to get there. The right planning is an interaction between possible returns and risk, which is why asset allocations are never cut and dried but depend more on making sure a plan is informed by a proper appreciation of consequences -- which is not completely simple.

Keep in mind that if you had saved $5000/year from 1990 to 2019 and then had the amount cut in half you would have $505,221 and if you had done the same with a 50/50 stock/bond allocation cut by 25% at the end you would have $537,354. So much for asset allocation.
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by LadyGeek »

dbr wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:41 am Actually the result is interesting and very (?????) helpful. All sets of three prime numbers that add to 100 include 2 (2,19,71--2/31/67--2,37,61). So the question is should we not invest in international at all thinking the 2 should be the international. Or should we assign the 2 to bonds in an all stock portfolio and pick international from the choices 19, 31, 37, 61, and 67.
Remember that asset allocations are a moving target. You're picking the allocation percentages for the first day. After that, you'll no longer be where you started. Due to market volatility, changes of 1 or 2 percent are frequent. That's why using allocation "bands" of 5% is a suggested approach.

You're dealing with your life's savings here. Remove emotion from the equation and look at the data.

See the wiki: Asset allocation and note that the tables work in 10% steps. (The table in Note 6 works in 5% steps.)
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by dbr »

LadyGeek wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:19 am
dbr wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:41 am Actually the result is interesting and very (?????) helpful. All sets of three prime numbers that add to 100 include 2 (2,19,71--2/31/67--2,37,61). So the question is should we not invest in international at all thinking the 2 should be the international. Or should we assign the 2 to bonds in an all stock portfolio and pick international from the choices 19, 31, 37, 61, and 67.
Remember that asset allocations are a moving target. You're picking the allocation percentages for the first day. After that, you'll no longer be where you started. Due to market volatility, changes of 1 or 2 percent are frequent. That's why using allocation "bands" of 5% is a suggested approach.

You're dealing with your life's savings here. Remove emotion from the equation and look at the data.

See the wiki: Asset allocation and note that the tables work in 10% steps. (The table in Note 6 works in 5% steps.)
You realize this is all just humor. Right?

The point is that people take the actual numbers too seriously when all they are is just simple ways of making a table.

The Wiki article is seriously flawed in that it does not coherently discuss the concept of variability of returns and the consequences of that. The only way in which risk is addressed is by one example of bear market performance and the chart illustrating possible drawdown, which is the one Swedroe uses to discuss willingness to take risk. The variability of returns over time is far more fundamental to investing than just trying to address the idea that there may be bad experiences from time to time.
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

LadyGeek wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:19 am
dbr wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:41 am Actually the result is interesting and very (?????) helpful. All sets of three prime numbers that add to 100 include 2 (2,19,71--2/31/67--2,37,61). So the question is should we not invest in international at all thinking the 2 should be the international. Or should we assign the 2 to bonds in an all stock portfolio and pick international from the choices 19, 31, 37, 61, and 67.
Remember that asset allocations are a moving target. You're picking the allocation percentages for the first day. After that, you'll no longer be where you started. Due to market volatility, changes of 1 or 2 percent are frequent. That's why using allocation "bands" of 5% is a suggested approach.

You're dealing with your life's savings here. Remove emotion from the equation and look at the data.

See the wiki: Asset allocation and note that the tables work in 10% steps. (The table in Note 6 works in 5% steps.)
I’m thinking and working toward total simplicity...especially since I realize more than ever that my husband has absolutely zero interest in finances. There’s a reasonable chance that I will predecease him since I’ve had breast cancer and he’s had no health issues and longevity of 102 and 99 in his parents.

We’re relatively young (64) and healthy now but time goes fast and the unexpected happens. Now that I’m dedicating focusedtime to this I want to make best long term decision possible.

It seems a fund of funds may be best...they are rebalanced for you but I wonder whether the TDF or balanced funds are better? Any data to support one over the other?
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

And he is definitely one who would be prey to any unscrupulous advisor. I want this to be true key for him. No one to consult.
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio

Post by tibbitts »

nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:39 am
tibbitts wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:31 am
nanameg wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:54 am
little_star wrote: Sun Jun 21, 2020 11:11 pm I agree with dbr. In four days you have gone from asking a question about the different allocations in the two IRA accounts to deciding that you do not want to follow the advice provided by PAS at all, since you now disagree regarding the need for international funds. However, in your post below, you state that you want your life back. The way to get your life back is to find an advisor and follow the advice given. Set it and forget it. While it is possible to DIY regarding the fund allocations, your continual second guessing and past actions indicate that you need someone to discuss your financial decisions with before you implement them. That is the role of a financial advisor. The extra cost for not 100% DIY provides the peace of mind of having had the consultation before you implement something that may have even bigger financial consequences than paying the advising fee. Not everyone is tempermentally suited to DIY finances, just like not everyone is tempermentally suited to DIY home improvements. Recognizing that you are better served by paying the small fees for a PAS (or other) advisor should be one step toward getting your life back.
nanameg wrote: Sun Jun 21, 2020 9:08 am Thank you. Yes it’s very difficult to be on your own with this, especially since it’s my husband who has been working the last 12 years. We’ve had bad experiences with “ help “before too which led me to Bogle in the first place 18 years ago.

Unfortunately he was as panicked as I was and agreed to the cash out.

I will spend more time with PAS but I’m beginning to lean toward the fund of funds approach...I want my life back.
We had a very bad experience with a financial advisor in the early 2000’s and lost half our college fund for our children, just when we were going to begin to use it. I had “ set it and forget “ with him. I had no idea what I was doing and just trusted him ...disaster.

It’s very hard to trust anyone again. And now , since my panic in March, I don’t trust myself either.

I’m very, very grateful for all the supportive and intelligent responses here. I’ll stay with PAS and keep learning.
I'm not sure what happened to you in the 2000s but the early 2000s were a disaster for a lot of us and it had nothing to do with using an advisor or not. Often the damage from advisors is only evident over long periods, when the fees and - maybe - bad trading decisions compound.
Our college fund got sliced in half just when we needed it that’s what happened. Disaster...secondary to an insurance broker masquerading as a “ financial advisor” .

We should have been out of that stock fund he put us in long before. This is why I’m allergic to advisors of any stripe.

But the good thing is I stumbled onto Bogle after that.

Too bad I didn’t stumble on to bogleheads earlier than late March.

Live and learn.
It really depends on when he put you into the heavy-stock allocation, whether you would have been better or worse off. While I think most Bogleheads would not be 100% stock for a student starting college, Bogleheads have been becoming increasingly aggressive in recent years and you'd find some sentiment for some percentage of stocks. Honestly back in those days the real interest rates were decent, so it was more the temptation of the huge market gains of the time that would lead people to stocks. Now it's more the effectively negative real rates, but you've seen all the post now talking about substituting dividend stocks for bonds. Also you don't need all your college expenses at one time so people would say some of that money still had four years to run, or more for grad school.

Now if you say you just started using the advisor and brought him money that had been in cash that he invested in 1999 or something and he went 100% into a stock fund for 2000-year college funds, that would be highly questionable.
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

Yes, well it’s all past history now and our children have all finished college debt free, the last one graduated 10 years ago.

I went to Vanguard with 529 plans and did much better.

This guy was a fraud. He also sold us whole life insurance. We paid him for his “ services” on top of it.

Whatever...as I say it’s past history and moving forward toward best decisions for our retirement. Unfortunately the bad experience with him also kept me from seeking advice until it was too late and I panicked and sold in March.

We’ve made lots financial mistakes...but we are doing ok. Earned well and saved a lot. Found Vanguard. Spent less than we made all our lives so we’re debt free, own our home and have a nice nest egg I’m trying to preserve in the best way going forward now.
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nix4me »

Maybe simplify and take less risk?

30% VTSAX
70% VBTLX

Or just buy the Target Retirment Income VTINX fund in each account - its approx 30/70 as well but includes international.
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by LadyGeek »

nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:39 am ...It seems a fund of funds may be best...they are rebalanced for you but I wonder whether the TDF or balanced funds are better? Any data to support one over the other?
Target Date Funds change their asset allocation over time and are intended for investors who want to "dial-down" their risk level as they get closer to retirement (more bonds over time). Balanced funds keep the asset allocations constant. Simplicity is a very good idea. Like this one:
nix4me wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 11:34 am Or just buy the Target Retirment Income VTINX fund in each account - its approx 30/70 as well but includes international.
Or, you can choose from the Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds.

Just pick your asset allocation and use a fund that's the closest match. Done.
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

LadyGeek wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 11:44 am
nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:39 am ...It seems a fund of funds may be best...they are rebalanced for you but I wonder whether the TDF or balanced funds are better? Any data to support one over the other?
Target Date Funds change their asset allocation over time and are intended for investors who want to "dial-down" their risk level as they get closer to retirement (more bonds over time). Balanced funds keep the asset allocations constant. Simplicity is a very good idea. Like this one:
nix4me wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 11:34 am Or just buy the Target Retirment Income VTINX fund in each account - its approx 30/70 as well but includes international.
Or, you can choose from the Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds.

Just pick your asset allocation and use a fund that's the closest match. Done.
Yes but is it “ better” to have a glide path to more fixed income or “ better” to stay in one AA over a lifetime in a balanced fund. That’s my question. Any data on that?
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

dbr wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:08 am
nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:06 am
I don’t know if it’s temperament as much as lack of knowledge that did me in this time. I mean the lack of knowledge about how much we actually need in retirement ( I have a guesstimate now) and a broader sense of market history.
I think you will find that shift is far more important than you could ever have imagined.
I know we’re not supposed to discuss politics on this forum and I think that’s an excellent policy that I want to adhere to but I’d like to read about how politics affect the stock market too. Especially in light of the political turmoil now. Does that make it “ different this time?”

It’s interesting to watch some old clips of Bogle and all the caveats about the state of the world he brings up even then.
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by Miriam2 »

retiredjg wrote: Your money should be a source of comfort in your life, not something that causes you stress.
Amen :happy Smartest most concise statement on any thread on the forum, by of course, our retiredjg.
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by tibbitts »

nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:24 pm
dbr wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:08 am
nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:06 am
I don’t know if it’s temperament as much as lack of knowledge that did me in this time. I mean the lack of knowledge about how much we actually need in retirement ( I have a guesstimate now) and a broader sense of market history.
I think you will find that shift is far more important than you could ever have imagined.
I know we’re not supposed to discuss politics on this forum and I think that’s an excellent policy that I want to adhere to but I’d like to read about how politics affect the stock market too. Especially in light of the political turmoil now. Does that make it “ different this time?”

It’s interesting to watch some old clips of Bogle and all the caveats about the state of the world he brings up even then.
"It" is different this time, nobody can dispute that. Every time something happens, by definition "it" is different. Whether "it" will impact investing differently than in the past, nobody can tell you, no matter how much you talk about "it." Anything anyone would say would be speculation - one of the reason conversations here are restricted to more actionable subjects.
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

Makes sense.

Just wondering about recommended reading on markets and how they’re affected by politics ...
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by sergeant »

nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:35 pm Makes sense.

Just wondering about recommended reading on markets and how they’re affected by politics ...
They're not. Really, that is all you need to know. It isn't worth getting into the weeds on this topic to have success in investing. I actually think that if you read something it will negatively impact you. Also, I thought that you said you were going to take time and give VPAS a chance? You're already waffling and looking into TDF's. :oops:
AA- 20+ Years of Expenses Fixed Income/The remainder in Equities.
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

sergeant wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:27 pm
nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:35 pm Makes sense.

Just wondering about recommended reading on markets and how they’re affected by politics ...
They're not. Really, that is all you need to know. It isn't worth getting into the weeds on this topic to have success in investing. I actually think that if you read something it will negatively impact you. Also, I thought that you said you were going to take time and give VPAS a chance? You're already waffling and looking into TDF's. :oops:
I’m trying to make one decision for the long haul. I’m giving PAS a chance but I don’t see it as long lived. I didn’t join in when I first found out about it and I still don’t see the need for it long term.

It’s not “ waffling”...it’s thinking it through. I want to make one decision once and basically forget about it if that’s possible. I never want to be second guessing myself in the middle of the night again.
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

I first filled out a questionnaire and got the PAS sell in 2015. It seemed a lot for a little then. I still feel that way.

I’m trying to stop behavioral errors the cheapest way possible and also set up my husband for any contingencies in the future since he won’t even talk to the PAS advisor unless I pin him down.
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

Investing is a family affair. I need to take in the whole picture not just me.
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nedsaid »

After having read through much of the thread, my conclusion is that the Original Poster is the ideal candidate for Vanguard Personal Advisory service. The OP panicked out of the market and sought help getting back in and now is the equivalent of the backseat driver or the armchair quarterback.

In August of 2019, I started a test drive of a portfolio management service. Don't agree with everything regarding portfolio construction and don't agree with every trade they have made. But I wanted help and I just decided to go with the recommendations. Just because my personal preferences are somewhat different from theirs, it doesn't mean that they aren't doing a competent job. I have come to realize that if I want someone else to do the driving that it defeats the purpose of hiring a manager if I am at odds with everything the manager does. If I want someone who agrees 100% with me, then I ought to appoint me as the portfolio manager.

If one wants help, cooperate with those helping. If one is confident of his or her own ability, one ought to manage the portfolio on their own. This backseat driving is helping no one. One can always argue over the fees, and I agree that even 0.3% adds up over time. But over time, the fee might be worth it if the OP can avoid behavioral errors in the future. Might be one reason the advisor is recommending 45% stocks rather than the 50% stocks the OP wants, the advisor is well aware of the OP's skittishness. So it really boils down to this: do you want help or not? If you want help, how much are you willing to pay for it?
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by nanameg »

I may be a backseat driver. But this is my dilemma.

I got a PAS portfolio in 2015 and 2018 and just followed that rather than sign up for the service. I panicked. Why did I panic? Because I was following a FORMULA I didn’t understand.

I’m trying to UNDERSTAND and agree rather than have someone drive me.

And I’m forced to be a “ back seat driver” since PAS can’t legally advise me on a full 1/2 of our portfolio which is the active part...my husbands 401k that Vanguard is the custodian of.

I’ll be a lot less “ skittish “ if I understand and agree ..I’ve had this formula before and didn’t understand or really agree, I just went along. That didn’t work. I panicked because of it.

I never fully understood if international stocks were necessary and felt ambivalent because I had read bogle’s books and remembered him saying they weren’t necessary. They were the first fund I sold and the rest was history as the market kept plunging. I wanted a time out.

It was a costly mistake but I made it, I own it and I want to do better. I don’t think just handing the keys over to someone who can’t even manage 1/2 our assets is the foolproof answer.

And as I’ve said, I can barely get my husband to sit through a phone conversation with the advisor. I think I’m probably better off just going with a single fund of funds for the three accounts if I can make an informed decision about which one for our future and his if I’m out of the picture.
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by Silence Dogood »

Miriam2 wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:26 pm
retiredjg wrote: Your money should be a source of comfort in your life, not something that causes you stress.
Amen :happy Smartest most concise statement on any thread on the forum, by of course, our retiredjg.
+1
nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:15 am ...we have more than enough money saved
nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:15 am As I said he recommended 45/55 and then said 50/50 really doesn’t “ feel” very different from the 45/55 he recommended.
To be clear, I'm not recommending 45/55 over 50/50. I actually think that you should be even more conservative.

Why take risk that you don't need to?

I think you should consider Vanguard Target Retirement Income fund (VTINX).
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Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

Post by pennywise »

nanameg wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 3:27 pm I may be a backseat driver. But this is my dilemma.

I got a PAS portfolio in 2015 and 2018 and just followed that rather than sign up for the service. I panicked. Why did I panic? Because I was following a FORMULA I didn’t understand.

I’m trying to UNDERSTAND and agree rather than have someone drive me.

And I’m forced to be a “ back seat driver” since PAS can’t legally advise me on a full 1/2 of our portfolio which is the active part...my husbands 401k that Vanguard is the custodian of.

I’ll be a lot less “ skittish “ if I understand and agree ..I’ve had this formula before and didn’t understand or really agree, I just went along. That didn’t work. I panicked because of it.
Very frankly after your many, many, MANY posts and explanations your logic is difficult to decipher.

If you don't want to use an advisor, don't use one. But according to this latest information your hesitation is because you implemented a set of investment recommendations you didn't understand but then never followed up to actually use the service/advisor which would have allowed you to discuss the recommendations till you did understand, then came to grief by bailing out of the investments you didn't understand partly because you didn't use the advisor you never hired to counsel you against a foolish decision.

I don't think anyone here can help you with that.

During this discussion you have shared you don't trust PAS, you don't think they are motivated by trying to help you, you are suspicious they do not have your best interests as a priority and you don't see yourself using them for any length of time. So don't use the advisory service. Advise yourself. Live long and prosper :D

You may feel better if you quit tormenting yourself by trying to understand the perspective of the folks on the forum who have used the advisory service to, as has been said, make our lives easier and our money management less stressful. It seems clear that at this time you do not share that perspective, and that's ok.

[OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek]
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