Stop me from market timing!

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Topic Author
sp_admiral
Posts: 14
Joined: Fri May 15, 2020 1:21 pm

Stop me from market timing!

Post by sp_admiral » Fri May 15, 2020 1:53 pm

With all that's going on, I'm having a tough time keeping my mind from wandering into thoughts of market timing.

A part of me keeps thinking this time will be different.

Every new update (record-setting stimulus packages, employment rates, etc.) makes me think I should be exiting the market now and get back in later, but I very well know this would be market timing!

Any advice or links to resources that could help me stay focused would be greatly appreciated!

For anyone curious, all of my investment portfolios are currently split between VTSAX, VBTLX, and VTIAX. I've got about 25% of my net worth in investable cash.

milosz19
Posts: 111
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:56 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by milosz19 » Fri May 15, 2020 2:24 pm

You are not alone. I certainly would not sell anything to buy it back later - that is incredibly hard to do. If you must time the market, time it with new money.

I am DCA-ing from my cash stock pile at the moment, but if the market drops substantially (say more than 20% from now), I will dump all my cash reserves in. Even that is hard to do. While I made substantial purchases during March lows, I did not go all in, expecting the market going even lower. There is no world in which you will not be second guessing yourself.

randybobandy
Posts: 70
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:51 am

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by randybobandy » Fri May 15, 2020 2:27 pm

Perhaps not watching or reading the news for a bit would help.


-Randy Bo Bandy

theorist
Posts: 631
Joined: Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:39 am

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by theorist » Fri May 15, 2020 2:33 pm

sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 1:53 pm
With all that's going on, I'm having a tough time keeping my mind from wandering into thoughts of market timing.

A part of me keeps thinking this time will be different.

Every new update (record-setting stimulus packages, employment rates, etc.) makes me think I should be exiting the market now and get back in later, but I very well know this would be market timing!

Any advice or links to resources that could help me stay focused would be greatly appreciated!

For anyone curious, all of my investment portfolios are currently split between VTSAX, VBTLX, and VTIAX. I've got about 25% of my net worth in investable cash.
This is all psychological, since trying to predict what is going to happen is a fool’s errand (too complex and nonlinear). I found these articles strangely comforting; maybe you will, too.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/0 ... ket-crash/

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/0 ... ar-market/

jimkinny
Posts: 1340
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2010 1:51 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by jimkinny » Fri May 15, 2020 2:48 pm

If you know more than the rest of the market then it would be a good time to try and time the market.

What do you know that isn't known already? What is unknown unknown that you know?

livesoft
Posts: 71980
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by livesoft » Fri May 15, 2020 2:55 pm

sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 1:53 pm
With all that's going on, I'm having a tough time keeping my mind from wandering into thoughts of market timing.

A part of me keeps thinking this time will be different.

Every new update (record-setting stimulus packages, employment rates, etc.) makes me think I should be exiting the market now and get back in later, but I very well know this would be market timing!
I think record-setting stimulus packages are a reason to buy equities, so I think you seem to have your market timing desires backwards. That should be enough by itself to stop you from market timing.

The fact that you have 25% of your net worth in investable cash is also market timing, so it seems that it is too late to stop you from market timing.

One thing that might work is to look at your portfolio performance DAILY and compare it DAILY to a suitable benchmark fund such at Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund. And it probably would even be helpful to use some of that cash to buy shares in that suitable benchmark fund to make things even more interesting.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

Topic Author
sp_admiral
Posts: 14
Joined: Fri May 15, 2020 1:21 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by sp_admiral » Fri May 15, 2020 3:09 pm

livesoft wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 2:55 pm
sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 1:53 pm
With all that's going on, I'm having a tough time keeping my mind from wandering into thoughts of market timing.

A part of me keeps thinking this time will be different.

Every new update (record-setting stimulus packages, employment rates, etc.) makes me think I should be exiting the market now and get back in later, but I very well know this would be market timing!
I think record-setting stimulus packages are a reason to buy equities, so I think you seem to have your market timing desires backwards. That should be enough by itself to stop you from market timing.

The fact that you have 25% of your net worth in investable cash is also market timing, so it seems that it is too late to stop you from market timing.

One thing that might work is to look at your portfolio performance DAILY and compare it DAILY to a suitable benchmark fund such at Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund. And it probably would even be helpful to use some of that cash to buy shares in that suitable benchmark fund to make things even more interesting.
To clarify, the 25% investable cash is actually money I had allocated in savings for potential home purchase, but my personal circumstances have changed and I no longer need that money for a home purchase :)

delamer
Posts: 10117
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 6:13 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by delamer » Fri May 15, 2020 3:16 pm

sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:09 pm
livesoft wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 2:55 pm
sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 1:53 pm
With all that's going on, I'm having a tough time keeping my mind from wandering into thoughts of market timing.

A part of me keeps thinking this time will be different.

Every new update (record-setting stimulus packages, employment rates, etc.) makes me think I should be exiting the market now and get back in later, but I very well know this would be market timing!
I think record-setting stimulus packages are a reason to buy equities, so I think you seem to have your market timing desires backwards. That should be enough by itself to stop you from market timing.

The fact that you have 25% of your net worth in investable cash is also market timing, so it seems that it is too late to stop you from market timing.

One thing that might work is to look at your portfolio performance DAILY and compare it DAILY to a suitable benchmark fund such at Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund. And it probably would even be helpful to use some of that cash to buy shares in that suitable benchmark fund to make things even more interesting.
To clarify, the 25% investable cash is actually money I had allocated in savings for potential home purchase, but my personal circumstances have changed and I no longer need that money for a home purchase :)
Is the rest of the portfolio designated for retirement? If so, how far are you from retiring?

260chrisb
Posts: 511
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2010 7:26 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by 260chrisb » Fri May 15, 2020 3:18 pm

sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:09 pm
livesoft wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 2:55 pm
sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 1:53 pm
With all that's going on, I'm having a tough time keeping my mind from wandering into thoughts of market timing.

A part of me keeps thinking this time will be different.

Every new update (record-setting stimulus packages, employment rates, etc.) makes me think I should be exiting the market now and get back in later, but I very well know this would be market timing!
I think record-setting stimulus packages are a reason to buy equities, so I think you seem to have your market timing desires backwards. That should be enough by itself to stop you from market timing.

The fact that you have 25% of your net worth in investable cash is also market timing, so it seems that it is too late to stop you from market timing.

One thing that might work is to look at your portfolio performance DAILY and compare it DAILY to a suitable benchmark fund such at Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund. And it probably would even be helpful to use some of that cash to buy shares in that suitable benchmark fund to make things even more interesting.
To clarify, the 25% investable cash is actually money I had allocated in savings for potential home purchase, but my personal circumstances have changed and I no longer need that money for a home purchase :)
If 25% of your net worth is in cash then you very likely have a pretty moderate overall asset allocation and haven't felt the pain many who don't did! Leave it there. Market timing almost never works; maybe you equally fund the three holdings and your cash account and stop watching the news so much. We've all had these feelings over the past two and a half months.

Topic Author
sp_admiral
Posts: 14
Joined: Fri May 15, 2020 1:21 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by sp_admiral » Fri May 15, 2020 3:22 pm

delamer wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:16 pm
sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:09 pm
livesoft wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 2:55 pm
sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 1:53 pm
With all that's going on, I'm having a tough time keeping my mind from wandering into thoughts of market timing.

A part of me keeps thinking this time will be different.

Every new update (record-setting stimulus packages, employment rates, etc.) makes me think I should be exiting the market now and get back in later, but I very well know this would be market timing!
I think record-setting stimulus packages are a reason to buy equities, so I think you seem to have your market timing desires backwards. That should be enough by itself to stop you from market timing.

The fact that you have 25% of your net worth in investable cash is also market timing, so it seems that it is too late to stop you from market timing.

One thing that might work is to look at your portfolio performance DAILY and compare it DAILY to a suitable benchmark fund such at Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund. And it probably would even be helpful to use some of that cash to buy shares in that suitable benchmark fund to make things even more interesting.
To clarify, the 25% investable cash is actually money I had allocated in savings for potential home purchase, but my personal circumstances have changed and I no longer need that money for a home purchase :)
Is the rest of the portfolio designated for retirement? If so, how far are you from retiring?
I am in my mid 20s. My entire net worth minus non-liquid possessions and emergency savings is designated for retirement:

- 401k
- Roth IRA (just rolled my Traditional IRA into this)
- Taxable, Personal Portfolio

My desired exposure is 60% US Index, 20% International Index, 10% Bonds, 10% Stock Picks (giving Buffet's intrinsic value a try)

Topic Author
sp_admiral
Posts: 14
Joined: Fri May 15, 2020 1:21 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by sp_admiral » Fri May 15, 2020 3:28 pm

theorist wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 2:33 pm
sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 1:53 pm
With all that's going on, I'm having a tough time keeping my mind from wandering into thoughts of market timing.

A part of me keeps thinking this time will be different.

Every new update (record-setting stimulus packages, employment rates, etc.) makes me think I should be exiting the market now and get back in later, but I very well know this would be market timing!

Any advice or links to resources that could help me stay focused would be greatly appreciated!

For anyone curious, all of my investment portfolios are currently split between VTSAX, VBTLX, and VTIAX. I've got about 25% of my net worth in investable cash.
This is all psychological, since trying to predict what is going to happen is a fool’s errand (too complex and nonlinear). I found these articles strangely comforting; maybe you will, too.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/0 ... ket-crash/

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/0 ... ar-market/
These two links are gold! Thank you for sharing

delamer
Posts: 10117
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 6:13 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by delamer » Fri May 15, 2020 3:30 pm

sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:22 pm
delamer wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:16 pm
sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:09 pm
livesoft wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 2:55 pm
sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 1:53 pm
With all that's going on, I'm having a tough time keeping my mind from wandering into thoughts of market timing.

A part of me keeps thinking this time will be different.

Every new update (record-setting stimulus packages, employment rates, etc.) makes me think I should be exiting the market now and get back in later, but I very well know this would be market timing!
I think record-setting stimulus packages are a reason to buy equities, so I think you seem to have your market timing desires backwards. That should be enough by itself to stop you from market timing.

The fact that you have 25% of your net worth in investable cash is also market timing, so it seems that it is too late to stop you from market timing.

One thing that might work is to look at your portfolio performance DAILY and compare it DAILY to a suitable benchmark fund such at Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund. And it probably would even be helpful to use some of that cash to buy shares in that suitable benchmark fund to make things even more interesting.
To clarify, the 25% investable cash is actually money I had allocated in savings for potential home purchase, but my personal circumstances have changed and I no longer need that money for a home purchase :)
Is the rest of the portfolio designated for retirement? If so, how far are you from retiring?
I am in my mid 20s. My entire net worth minus non-liquid possessions and emergency savings is designated for retirement:

- 401k
- Roth IRA (just rolled my Traditional IRA into this)
- Taxable, Personal Portfolio

My desired exposure is 60% US Index, 20% International Index, 10% Bonds, 10% Stock Picks (giving Buffet's intrinsic value a try)
So presumably at least 30 years until retirement?

Stocks are a long-term investment. If you make decisions about your asset allocation based on short-term market conditions, you’ll do your financial self a lot of harm.

Read both of these:

https://www.etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/0 ... ket-timer/

260chrisb
Posts: 511
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2010 7:26 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by 260chrisb » Fri May 15, 2020 3:32 pm

sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:22 pm
delamer wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:16 pm
sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:09 pm
livesoft wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 2:55 pm
sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 1:53 pm
With all that's going on, I'm having a tough time keeping my mind from wandering into thoughts of market timing.

A part of me keeps thinking this time will be different.

Every new update (record-setting stimulus packages, employment rates, etc.) makes me think I should be exiting the market now and get back in later, but I very well know this would be market timing!
I think record-setting stimulus packages are a reason to buy equities, so I think you seem to have your market timing desires backwards. That should be enough by itself to stop you from market timing.

The fact that you have 25% of your net worth in investable cash is also market timing, so it seems that it is too late to stop you from market timing.

One thing that might work is to look at your portfolio performance DAILY and compare it DAILY to a suitable benchmark fund such at Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund. And it probably would even be helpful to use some of that cash to buy shares in that suitable benchmark fund to make things even more interesting.
To clarify, the 25% investable cash is actually money I had allocated in savings for potential home purchase, but my personal circumstances have changed and I no longer need that money for a home purchase :)
Is the rest of the portfolio designated for retirement? If so, how far are you from retiring?
I am in my mid 20s. My entire net worth minus non-liquid possessions and emergency savings is designated for retirement:

- 401k
- Roth IRA (just rolled my Traditional IRA into this)
- Taxable, Personal Portfolio

My desired exposure is 60% US Index, 20% International Index, 10% Bonds, 10% Stock Picks (giving Buffet's intrinsic value a try)
Okay, I'm sorry but you're not old enough to worry about any of these things!! :happy 8-) Stick to your desired exposure. Get back with us in 20 years. :sharebeer

SD2SR
Posts: 22
Joined: Thu May 23, 2019 6:25 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by SD2SR » Fri May 15, 2020 3:36 pm

randybobandy wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 2:27 pm
Perhaps not watching or reading the news for a bit would help.


-Randy Bo Bandy
+1, certainly for myself.

User avatar
UpsetRaptor
Posts: 583
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:15 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by UpsetRaptor » Fri May 15, 2020 3:59 pm

OP,

There's over 100 vaccines currently in some stage of development, with 8 already in either Phase 1 or 2 human trials. Even if it's unlikely we'll see a fully tested/approved vaccine in widespread use in CY2020, it's quite likely we'll at least be getting some positive news tidbits on this front the rest of the year that may very well provide a backdrop support floor for the market. E.G. [Major Company X] covid vaccine passes phase 2 trials successfully, moving onto phase 3, they're ramping up production in advance - that type of thing.

IMO, betting on a major downturn back down to the March 23 low or lower is basically betting the vaccine push falls completely flat. A nonzero possibility, but not a bet I'd be willing to make. In the end it's only going to take one. Every week that goes by without a major downturn is one week closer to Phase 3 trials and eventually approval. Again, unless you just think they're all going to fail.

https://www.who.int/who-documents-detai ... e-vaccines

retired@50
Posts: 3049
Joined: Tue Oct 01, 2019 2:36 pm
Location: Living in the U.S.A.

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by retired@50 » Fri May 15, 2020 4:07 pm

sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:22 pm

My desired exposure is 60% US Index, 20% International Index, 10% Bonds, 10% Stock Picks (giving Buffet's intrinsic value a try)
10% Stock Picks is leading you astray. You don't have the temperament for this. Give up now so that you can stop reading / listening to the news. That way you won't have to be on the lookout for a value play.

Regards,
This is one person's opinion. Nothing more.

7eight9
Posts: 1057
Joined: Fri May 17, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by 7eight9 » Fri May 15, 2020 4:24 pm

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:59 pm
OP,

There's over 100 vaccines currently in some stage of development, with 8 already in either Phase 1 or 2 human trials. Even if it's unlikely we'll see a fully tested/approved vaccine in widespread use in CY2020, it's quite likely we'll at least be getting some positive news tidbits on this front the rest of the year that may very well provide a backdrop support floor for the market. E.G. [Major Company X] covid vaccine passes phase 2 trials successfully, moving onto phase 3, they're ramping up production in advance - that type of thing.

IMO, betting on a major downturn back down to the March 23 low or lower is basically betting the vaccine push falls completely flat. A nonzero possibility, but not a bet I'd be willing to make. In the end it's only going to take one. Every week that goes by without a major downturn is one week closer to Phase 3 trials and eventually approval. Again, unless you just think they're all going to fail.

https://www.who.int/who-documents-detai ... e-vaccines
I think betting against a vaccine would be a better bet. After all, it wasn't as if nobody tried to create a vaccine for SARS.

April 11, 2003 -- As SARS cases continue to increase, the U.S. government has a message for scientists: Make finding a vaccine a priority. ...

Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson this week called together vaccine manufacturers from around the world for a private meeting in Washington.

He told the companies this situation was not "business as usual," and that the federal government wanted work to begin on a possible vaccine as quickly as possible.

Fauci said he hopes to have a possible vaccine ready for human testing in just over a year. But it would still be years "before we have a vaccine available for people in a bottle to distribute, " Fauci said.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=116747&page=1
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.

Fallible
Posts: 7411
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 4:44 pm
Contact:

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by Fallible » Fri May 15, 2020 5:33 pm

sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:22 pm
...
My desired exposure is 60% US Index, 20% International Index, 10% Bonds, 10% Stock Picks (giving Buffet's intrinsic value a try)
The problem is probably here: first experience in a major market crash, discovering more risk than you were prepared for, leading to panic selling.

An alternative: lower your equity risk and keep lowering it until it begins to feel "right" for you, i.e., until you meet your personal risk tolerance. Do Buffett value stuff later; you'll have plenty of time for that.

In the meantime, continue reading more good stuff like the two links provided for you upthread. Have you read the Bogleheads' wiki on "Asset allocation" and "Risk tolerance" with more good links and recommended reading? Also, if you liked the "Wealth of Common Sense" blog by Ben Carlson, check out his website and his excellent book, "A Wealth of Common Sense: Why Simplicity Trumps Complexity in Any Investment Plan."
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool. ~Richard Feynman

CardioMD
Posts: 106
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:40 am

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by CardioMD » Fri May 15, 2020 5:54 pm

This is incredibly interesting for me because I am the complete opposite. Every piece of bad news, to me, is an opportunity to buy more at a discount. Of course my time horizon is long and my risk tolerance is high. However, in my humble opinion you have to ask your ‘will American business come out the other side of this as strong or stronger’? My answer is yes, it always has and this time is no different.

Make sure your AA is in line with your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance and let it ride. Tune out the noise.

P.s. this virus is here to stay but we will adapt and overcome as we always have. Don’t bet on a “cure” or a vaccine. In medicine we rarely, if ever, cure a disease. We hope to manage the illness and restore to as close to baseline function as possible. Treat this the same way, manage your portfolio around this illness (market disruption) and restore it to baseline function (proper AA).
“The stock market is a giant distraction from the business of investing.” -Jack Bogle

rbaldini
Posts: 1436
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:20 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by rbaldini » Fri May 15, 2020 5:56 pm

It proves nothing, but it's a fun story: Back on literally the low point of the market price back in March, a close friend of mine sent me a text, recommending that I sell all my stock funds. It was literally the market low.

Time might still prove him right: maybe new lows have yet to be reached. All I know is, if I had listened to him I would literally be about 20% poorer than I am now.

It's all just a matter of chance. Walk away from the news and do something productive with your time.

TeeDee
Posts: 89
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:21 am

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by TeeDee » Fri May 15, 2020 6:02 pm

7eight9 wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 4:24 pm
UpsetRaptor wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:59 pm
OP,

There's over 100 vaccines currently in some stage of development, with 8 already in either Phase 1 or 2 human trials. Even if it's unlikely we'll see a fully tested/approved vaccine in widespread use in CY2020, it's quite likely we'll at least be getting some positive news tidbits on this front the rest of the year that may very well provide a backdrop support floor for the market. E.G. [Major Company X] covid vaccine passes phase 2 trials successfully, moving onto phase 3, they're ramping up production in advance - that type of thing.

IMO, betting on a major downturn back down to the March 23 low or lower is basically betting the vaccine push falls completely flat. A nonzero possibility, but not a bet I'd be willing to make. In the end it's only going to take one. Every week that goes by without a major downturn is one week closer to Phase 3 trials and eventually approval. Again, unless you just think they're all going to fail.

https://www.who.int/who-documents-detai ... e-vaccines
I think betting against a vaccine would be a better bet. After all, it wasn't as if nobody tried to create a vaccine for SARS.

April 11, 2003 -- As SARS cases continue to increase, the U.S. government has a message for scientists: Make finding a vaccine a priority. ...

Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson this week called together vaccine manufacturers from around the world for a private meeting in Washington.

He told the companies this situation was not "business as usual," and that the federal government wanted work to begin on a possible vaccine as quickly as possible.

Fauci said he hopes to have a possible vaccine ready for human testing in just over a year. But it would still be years "before we have a vaccine available for people in a bottle to distribute, " Fauci said.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=116747&page=1
+1

however the nonsense being put out everyday that there will be a second wave etc. all the doom and gloom, is what I am betting against. while the market is mostly efficient, wall street is just as gullible to fake news.

User avatar
UpsetRaptor
Posts: 583
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:15 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by UpsetRaptor » Fri May 15, 2020 6:03 pm

7eight9 wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 4:24 pm
UpsetRaptor wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:59 pm
OP,

There's over 100 vaccines currently in some stage of development, with 8 already in either Phase 1 or 2 human trials. Even if it's unlikely we'll see a fully tested/approved vaccine in widespread use in CY2020, it's quite likely we'll at least be getting some positive news tidbits on this front the rest of the year that may very well provide a backdrop support floor for the market. E.G. [Major Company X] covid vaccine passes phase 2 trials successfully, moving onto phase 3, they're ramping up production in advance - that type of thing.

IMO, betting on a major downturn back down to the March 23 low or lower is basically betting the vaccine push falls completely flat. A nonzero possibility, but not a bet I'd be willing to make. In the end it's only going to take one. Every week that goes by without a major downturn is one week closer to Phase 3 trials and eventually approval. Again, unless you just think they're all going to fail.

https://www.who.int/who-documents-detai ... e-vaccines
I think betting against a vaccine would be a better bet. After all, it wasn't as if nobody tried to create a vaccine for SARS.

April 11, 2003 -- As SARS cases continue to increase, the U.S. government has a message for scientists: Make finding a vaccine a priority. ...

Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson this week called together vaccine manufacturers from around the world for a private meeting in Washington.

He told the companies this situation was not "business as usual," and that the federal government wanted work to begin on a possible vaccine as quickly as possible.

Fauci said he hopes to have a possible vaccine ready for human testing in just over a year. But it would still be years "before we have a vaccine available for people in a bottle to distribute, " Fauci said.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=116747&page=1
We actually did have a few vaccine candidates for SARS. It’s not that they were proven to be unsafe or ineffective. They just weren’t pushed through all the trial phases because the disease basically was contained and then went away on its own, so it was deemed there was no market for them. A shame, really, because we’d be further ahead right now if they had been followed through to completion. If you look at the WHO link I posted, a couple of these SARS-2 candidates are based on original SARS research.

Regardless, the issue with original SARS vaccines, lack of market because the disease is contained and goes away, is unlikely to happen with SARS-2.

TeeDee
Posts: 89
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:21 am

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by TeeDee » Fri May 15, 2020 6:07 pm

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 6:03 pm
7eight9 wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 4:24 pm
UpsetRaptor wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:59 pm
OP,

There's over 100 vaccines currently in some stage of development, with 8 already in either Phase 1 or 2 human trials. Even if it's unlikely we'll see a fully tested/approved vaccine in widespread use in CY2020, it's quite likely we'll at least be getting some positive news tidbits on this front the rest of the year that may very well provide a backdrop support floor for the market. E.G. [Major Company X] covid vaccine passes phase 2 trials successfully, moving onto phase 3, they're ramping up production in advance - that type of thing.

IMO, betting on a major downturn back down to the March 23 low or lower is basically betting the vaccine push falls completely flat. A nonzero possibility, but not a bet I'd be willing to make. In the end it's only going to take one. Every week that goes by without a major downturn is one week closer to Phase 3 trials and eventually approval. Again, unless you just think they're all going to fail.

https://www.who.int/who-documents-detai ... e-vaccines
I think betting against a vaccine would be a better bet. After all, it wasn't as if nobody tried to create a vaccine for SARS.

April 11, 2003 -- As SARS cases continue to increase, the U.S. government has a message for scientists: Make finding a vaccine a priority. ...

Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson this week called together vaccine manufacturers from around the world for a private meeting in Washington.

He told the companies this situation was not "business as usual," and that the federal government wanted work to begin on a possible vaccine as quickly as possible.

Fauci said he hopes to have a possible vaccine ready for human testing in just over a year. But it would still be years "before we have a vaccine available for people in a bottle to distribute, " Fauci said.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=116747&page=1
We actually did have a few vaccine candidates for SARS. It’s not that they were proven to be unsafe or ineffective. They just weren’t pushed through all the trial phases because the disease basically was contained and then went away on its own, so it was deemed there was no market for them. A shame, really, because we’d be further ahead right now if they had been followed through to completion. If you look at the WHO link I posted, a couple of these SARS-2 candidates are based on original SARS research.

Regardless, the issue with original SARS vaccines, lack of market because the disease is contained and goes away, is unlikely to happen with SARS-2.
I am confidently betting real money that the WHO is untrustworthy and this will turn out to be the greatest overreaction in modern history.

Trader Joe
Posts: 1785
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Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by Trader Joe » Fri May 15, 2020 7:48 pm

sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 1:53 pm
With all that's going on, I'm having a tough time keeping my mind from wandering into thoughts of market timing.

A part of me keeps thinking this time will be different.

Every new update (record-setting stimulus packages, employment rates, etc.) makes me think I should be exiting the market now and get back in later, but I very well know this would be market timing!

Any advice or links to resources that could help me stay focused would be greatly appreciated!

For anyone curious, all of my investment portfolios are currently split between VTSAX, VBTLX, and VTIAX. I've got about 25% of my net worth in investable cash.
Yes, you should tune out the noise.

NoRegret
Posts: 71
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Location: California

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by NoRegret » Fri May 15, 2020 7:57 pm

jimkinny wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 2:48 pm
If you know more than the rest of the market then it would be a good time to try and time the market.

What do you know that isn't known already? What is unknown unknown that you know?
VIX > 30 is the market’s way of saying it doesn’t know anything.
Market timer targeting long term cycles -- aiming for several key decisions per asset class per decade

User avatar
bluquark
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Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by bluquark » Fri May 15, 2020 8:29 pm

My gut had been telling me the market was irrationally behaving and due for another crash for the whole recent "dead cat bounce" so I recently decided to test my gut.

On April 8, I set up a paper trading account with thinkorswim and "bought" a simulated $50K of Jun 30 expiry SPY 269 put options, at a time when it seemed so obvious to me that we had to be near the top. It was my honest best guess as to the top and timeframe of the probable retesting of lows at the time. I left my real money following my IPS at 70/30 AA. The simulated action made me feel a little better somehow -- and I'd often heard the recommendation to log your beliefs about the market in a diary to avoid misremembering them in hindsight, and this was a quantitative version of that.

Thinkorswim tells me that today, my imaginary put options have currently lost about 60% of their value. The market may yet imminently crash but I did prove to my satisfaction that my gut is worthless in timing the top. I would probably have lost sleep second-guessing my decision if I cashed out real money on April 8 instead and watched the rise from the sidelines.

So I learned the wisdom of whitecoatinvestor's proverb:
1) Beginner investors have trouble staying put at lows
2) Intermediate investors have trouble staying put at highs (that was me)
3) Advanced investors stay the course.

Although, in truth, there is nothing "advanced" about 3. Some people get there by inattention and indifference instead! Part of the challenge is that it's hard to learn a lot about investing and then act the same as someone who knows nothing at all. What was the point? (Answer: curiosity for its own sake.)
Last edited by bluquark on Fri May 15, 2020 8:46 pm, edited 3 times in total.
70/30 portfolio | Equity: global market weight | Bonds: 20% long-term munis - 10% LEMB

dru808
Posts: 839
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Location: mid pac

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by dru808 » Fri May 15, 2020 8:39 pm

milosz19 wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 2:24 pm
You are not alone. I certainly would not sell anything to buy it back later - that is incredibly hard to do. If you must time the market, time it with new money.

I am DCA-ing from my cash stock pile at the moment, but if the market drops substantially (say more than 20% from now), I will dump all my cash reserves in. Even that is hard to do. While I made substantial purchases during March lows, I did not go all in, expecting the market going even lower. There is no world in which you will not be second guessing yourself.
This, I don’t do it but, I believe this is the least worst form of market timing, you are still invested for the most part and may not win out vs exiting & re entering or doing nothing different. It’ll allow you to partially scratch your itch without devastating consequences.
60% US equity | 25% International equity | 15% US Treasury bonds

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arcticpineapplecorp.
Posts: 5249
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Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Fri May 15, 2020 9:03 pm

sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 1:53 pm
With all that's going on, I'm having a tough time keeping my mind from wandering into thoughts of market timing.

A part of me keeps thinking this time will be different.

Every new update (record-setting stimulus packages, employment rates, etc.) makes me think I should be exiting the market now and get back in later, but I very well know this would be market timing!

Any advice or links to resources that could help me stay focused would be greatly appreciated!

For anyone curious, all of my investment portfolios are currently split between VTSAX, VBTLX, and VTIAX. I've got about 25% of my net worth in investable cash.
"The four most dangerous words in investing are "This Time Is Different" - John Templeton

since you want to time the market how about trying it with fake money first and see how you do:

https://www.prudential.com/cdn/tools/ou ... oolcta=OFF
https://qz.com/487013/this-game-will-sh ... right-now/
https://engaging-data.com/market-timing-game/

now did you beat the market? If you didn't beat the market with known, past data, how do you think you'll be able to beat the market based on unknown future data?

Stop reading news, especially about financial stuff. It's mostly noise and bs. nobody knows nuthin.

You're making the classic mistake Larry Swedroe says of mistaking information for knowledge.

Also think about the following: I assume you would agree with the following statement:
the only way to profit is to know something that others don't, right?

news is just information that's already come out and is now known by everyone (including you).

well, if you know something that others don't, you can't trade on it so you can't profit from it (insider trading).
and if you know something, well everybody else already does too, so it's not profitable.

so pick an IPS : https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investm ... _statement
stick with it.
stay the course (which means rebalance according to your IPS as required).

the rest is just noise.
"The stock market is a giant distraction from the business of investing." Jack Bogle

welcome to bogleheads where you will hear the truth, even if it wasn't what you were looking to hear.
Last edited by arcticpineapplecorp. on Fri May 15, 2020 9:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"May you live as long as you want and never want as long as you live" -- Irish Blessing | "Invest we must" -- Jack Bogle

Topic Author
sp_admiral
Posts: 14
Joined: Fri May 15, 2020 1:21 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by sp_admiral » Fri May 15, 2020 9:20 pm

Thank you to everyone that has responded! All your comments and feedback have been a positive reinforcement in the right direction :thumbsup

justsomeguy2018
Posts: 1120
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:11 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by justsomeguy2018 » Fri May 15, 2020 9:38 pm

sp_admiral wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 1:53 pm
With all that's going on, I'm having a tough time keeping my mind from wandering into thoughts of market timing.

A part of me keeps thinking this time will be different.

Every new update (record-setting stimulus packages, employment rates, etc.) makes me think I should be exiting the market now and get back in later, but I very well know this would be market timing!

Any advice or links to resources that could help me stay focused would be greatly appreciated!

For anyone curious, all of my investment portfolios are currently split between VTSAX, VBTLX, and VTIAX. I've got about 25% of my net worth in investable cash.
I would stay invested in the market and just buy more if it really tanks. Especially with a 30-year time horizon. What if you had exited the market on March 23rd, thinking catastrophe was imminent? You would be stuck.

anoop
Posts: 1433
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:33 am

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by anoop » Fri May 15, 2020 9:43 pm

OP, you could follow this guy. :D

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/to-su ... 2020-05-14

"We offer a very simple, scalable strategy that involves the S&P 500 ETFs SPY and cash,” being in one or the other, Thomas H. Kee Jr., President and Chief Executive of Stock Traders Daily and portfolio manager at Equity Logic, told MarketWatch in an interview.

Stage three is usually “fast and harsh and brutal,” he said. And he has a bit of advice for 401(k) players when that last stage rolls around — move to cash. But ride the market out in the meantime.

DesertMan
Posts: 233
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2010 12:54 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by DesertMan » Fri May 15, 2020 9:50 pm

If you're having trouble staying the course, invest in a diversified buy and hold lazy portfolio such as All Weather or the Permanent Portfolio, that matches your needs and risk tolerance.

vicferrari
Posts: 22
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2014 10:43 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by vicferrari » Sat May 16, 2020 12:30 am

I tried to time the market. Put 50k into the market in March. Then the stuff hit the fan and it tanked much further. Things looked far worse than a “bad 911”. I pulled it out and took a 7k loss to have liquid back on hand. Lesson learned.

We have no idea how long or bad this is going take be. It appears worse than 2008 and far worse than 911. The double whammy of covid and oil is particularly lethal here in Texas.

So I’m holding onto cash and returning to Bogle’s advice that I ignored at my own peril—don’t time the market and stay the course. The 7k loss still stings. But it was probably worth it to know never to time the market again.

Cyanide123
Posts: 262
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 9:14 am

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by Cyanide123 » Sat May 16, 2020 2:21 am

7eight9 wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 4:24 pm
UpsetRaptor wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:59 pm
OP,

There's over 100 vaccines currently in some stage of development, with 8 already in either Phase 1 or 2 human trials. Even if it's unlikely we'll see a fully tested/approved vaccine in widespread use in CY2020, it's quite likely we'll at least be getting some positive news tidbits on this front the rest of the year that may very well provide a backdrop support floor for the market. E.G. [Major Company X] covid vaccine passes phase 2 trials successfully, moving onto phase 3, they're ramping up production in advance - that type of thing.

IMO, betting on a major downturn back down to the March 23 low or lower is basically betting the vaccine push falls completely flat. A nonzero possibility, but not a bet I'd be willing to make. In the end it's only going to take one. Every week that goes by without a major downturn is one week closer to Phase 3 trials and eventually approval. Again, unless you just think they're all going to fail.

https://www.who.int/who-documents-detai ... e-vaccines
I think betting against a vaccine would be a better bet. After all, it wasn't as if nobody tried to create a vaccine for SARS.

April 11, 2003 -- As SARS cases continue to increase, the U.S. government has a message for scientists: Make finding a vaccine a priority. ...

Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson this week called together vaccine manufacturers from around the world for a private meeting in Washington.

He told the companies this situation was not "business as usual," and that the federal government wanted work to begin on a possible vaccine as quickly as possible.

Fauci said he hopes to have a possible vaccine ready for human testing in just over a year. But it would still be years "before we have a vaccine available for people in a bottle to distribute, " Fauci said.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=116747&page=1
Agree with this post. A safe and effective vaccine in 1 year is very unlikely. We still don't have a HIV or hep C vaccine. They would be cutting a lot of safety profile corners if something is approved by the end of this year.

Best case scenario is vaccine by mid next year. Worst case scenario, everything fails since its hard to make vaccines. I mean.... We d still don't have a vaccine to the common cold. Our influenza vaccines are always hit or miss.

Plus they aren't able to manufacture known drugs like remdesvir, do you really think they can create something and produce 300 million doses within a year?

I mean....i literally don't have bare minimum n95s at work. If we can't even get ppe in months, can we really get a vaccine and distribute it to 300+ million people?

minimalistmarc
Posts: 942
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:38 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by minimalistmarc » Sat May 16, 2020 7:22 am

Cyanide123 wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 2:21 am
7eight9 wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 4:24 pm
UpsetRaptor wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:59 pm
OP,

There's over 100 vaccines currently in some stage of development, with 8 already in either Phase 1 or 2 human trials. Even if it's unlikely we'll see a fully tested/approved vaccine in widespread use in CY2020, it's quite likely we'll at least be getting some positive news tidbits on this front the rest of the year that may very well provide a backdrop support floor for the market. E.G. [Major Company X] covid vaccine passes phase 2 trials successfully, moving onto phase 3, they're ramping up production in advance - that type of thing.

IMO, betting on a major downturn back down to the March 23 low or lower is basically betting the vaccine push falls completely flat. A nonzero possibility, but not a bet I'd be willing to make. In the end it's only going to take one. Every week that goes by without a major downturn is one week closer to Phase 3 trials and eventually approval. Again, unless you just think they're all going to fail.

https://www.who.int/who-documents-detai ... e-vaccines
I think betting against a vaccine would be a better bet. After all, it wasn't as if nobody tried to create a vaccine for SARS.

April 11, 2003 -- As SARS cases continue to increase, the U.S. government has a message for scientists: Make finding a vaccine a priority. ...

Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson this week called together vaccine manufacturers from around the world for a private meeting in Washington.

He told the companies this situation was not "business as usual," and that the federal government wanted work to begin on a possible vaccine as quickly as possible.

Fauci said he hopes to have a possible vaccine ready for human testing in just over a year. But it would still be years "before we have a vaccine available for people in a bottle to distribute, " Fauci said.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=116747&page=1
Agree with this post. A safe and effective vaccine in 1 year is very unlikely. We still don't have a HIV or hep C vaccine. They would be cutting a lot of safety profile corners if something is approved by the end of this year.

Best case scenario is vaccine by mid next year. Worst case scenario, everything fails since its hard to make vaccines. I mean.... We d still don't have a vaccine to the common cold. Our influenza vaccines are always hit or miss.

Plus they aren't able to manufacture known drugs like remdesvir, do you really think they can create something and produce 300 million doses within a year?

I mean....i literally don't have bare minimum n95s at work. If we can't even get ppe in months, can we really get a vaccine and distribute it to 300+ million people?
your post shows that you know nothing about vaccines or virus.

Making a coronavirus vaccine is less problematic than HIV , for many reasons ( I’m not an expert).

The common cold can be caused by more than 200 different viruses.

There are currently around 100 COVID vaccines in development, with some working in a closely related monkey species and going into trials.

We are very good at making flu vaccines. The problem is guessing the annual strain before it hits.

In summary, stop thinking you know anything about stuff you have not studied yourself. Definitely don’t try and think you know anything that gives you an edge on the markets

Cyanide123
Posts: 262
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 9:14 am

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by Cyanide123 » Sat May 16, 2020 8:02 am

minimalistmarc wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 7:22 am
Cyanide123 wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 2:21 am
7eight9 wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 4:24 pm
UpsetRaptor wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:59 pm
OP,

There's over 100 vaccines currently in some stage of development, with 8 already in either Phase 1 or 2 human trials. Even if it's unlikely we'll see a fully tested/approved vaccine in widespread use in CY2020, it's quite likely we'll at least be getting some positive news tidbits on this front the rest of the year that may very well provide a backdrop support floor for the market. E.G. [Major Company X] covid vaccine passes phase 2 trials successfully, moving onto phase 3, they're ramping up production in advance - that type of thing.

IMO, betting on a major downturn back down to the March 23 low or lower is basically betting the vaccine push falls completely flat. A nonzero possibility, but not a bet I'd be willing to make. In the end it's only going to take one. Every week that goes by without a major downturn is one week closer to Phase 3 trials and eventually approval. Again, unless you just think they're all going to fail.

https://www.who.int/who-documents-detai ... e-vaccines
I think betting against a vaccine would be a better bet. After all, it wasn't as if nobody tried to create a vaccine for SARS.

April 11, 2003 -- As SARS cases continue to increase, the U.S. government has a message for scientists: Make finding a vaccine a priority. ...

Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson this week called together vaccine manufacturers from around the world for a private meeting in Washington.

He told the companies this situation was not "business as usual," and that the federal government wanted work to begin on a possible vaccine as quickly as possible.

Fauci said he hopes to have a possible vaccine ready for human testing in just over a year. But it would still be years "before we have a vaccine available for people in a bottle to distribute, " Fauci said.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=116747&page=1
Agree with this post. A safe and effective vaccine in 1 year is very unlikely. We still don't have a HIV or hep C vaccine. They would be cutting a lot of safety profile corners if something is approved by the end of this year.

Best case scenario is vaccine by mid next year. Worst case scenario, everything fails since its hard to make vaccines. I mean.... We d still don't have a vaccine to the common cold. Our influenza vaccines are always hit or miss.

Plus they aren't able to manufacture known drugs like remdesvir, do you really think they can create something and produce 300 million doses within a year?

I mean....i literally don't have bare minimum n95s at work. If we can't even get ppe in months, can we really get a vaccine and distribute it to 300+ million people?
your post shows that you know nothing about vaccines or virus.

Making a coronavirus vaccine is less problematic than HIV , for many reasons ( I’m not an expert).

The common cold can be caused by more than 200 different viruses.

There are currently around 100 COVID vaccines in development, with some working in a closely related monkey species and going into trials.

We are very good at making flu vaccines. The problem is guessing the annual strain before it hits.

In summary, stop thinking you know anything about stuff you have not studied yourself. Definitely don’t try and think you know anything that gives you an edge on the markets
The irony is im a physician who likely knows a lot more about vaccines and viruses than most people. I still don't think i have an edge on the market which is why i DCA. It literally takes 10 years to bring a drug to market from research and development to actually being used. It's just unheard of creating an effective vaccine within months.

The common cold can be hundreds, but in reality its 2-3 viruses that cause it most of the time - rhinovirus, corona virus (before the novel strain) is essentially 50 percent of common colds. And i know the problem is predicting the drifting/shifting antigens of the flu. But guess what, to get an effective vaccine by the end of the year, they also have to guess which one vaccine is likely to be most effective and start Mass producing before having safety and efficacy data. So there can be hundreds of trials, but eventually you have to pick one to mass produce out of these hundreds, and they very well can be completely wrong.

And hiv like corona viruses happens to be a single stranded rna that requires reverse transcriptase enzynes and host machinery to replicate the virus. Like any virus, they both have an envelope, a core, and rna strands - much more similar than different. One targets the T4 helper cells, the other targets the ace receptor. The point I'm making is if it was that easy to make vaccines or have block buster drugs to treat viruses then there are plenty of diseases caused by viruses that have no vaccines.

I think we're in for the long haul from a medical stand point.

minimalistmarc
Posts: 942
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:38 pm

Re: Stop me from market timing!

Post by minimalistmarc » Sat May 16, 2020 9:24 am

Cyanide123 wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 8:02 am
minimalistmarc wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 7:22 am
Cyanide123 wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 2:21 am
7eight9 wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 4:24 pm
UpsetRaptor wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:59 pm
OP,

There's over 100 vaccines currently in some stage of development, with 8 already in either Phase 1 or 2 human trials. Even if it's unlikely we'll see a fully tested/approved vaccine in widespread use in CY2020, it's quite likely we'll at least be getting some positive news tidbits on this front the rest of the year that may very well provide a backdrop support floor for the market. E.G. [Major Company X] covid vaccine passes phase 2 trials successfully, moving onto phase 3, they're ramping up production in advance - that type of thing.

IMO, betting on a major downturn back down to the March 23 low or lower is basically betting the vaccine push falls completely flat. A nonzero possibility, but not a bet I'd be willing to make. In the end it's only going to take one. Every week that goes by without a major downturn is one week closer to Phase 3 trials and eventually approval. Again, unless you just think they're all going to fail.

https://www.who.int/who-documents-detai ... e-vaccines
I think betting against a vaccine would be a better bet. After all, it wasn't as if nobody tried to create a vaccine for SARS.

April 11, 2003 -- As SARS cases continue to increase, the U.S. government has a message for scientists: Make finding a vaccine a priority. ...

Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson this week called together vaccine manufacturers from around the world for a private meeting in Washington.

He told the companies this situation was not "business as usual," and that the federal government wanted work to begin on a possible vaccine as quickly as possible.

Fauci said he hopes to have a possible vaccine ready for human testing in just over a year. But it would still be years "before we have a vaccine available for people in a bottle to distribute, " Fauci said.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=116747&page=1
Agree with this post. A safe and effective vaccine in 1 year is very unlikely. We still don't have a HIV or hep C vaccine. They would be cutting a lot of safety profile corners if something is approved by the end of this year.

Best case scenario is vaccine by mid next year. Worst case scenario, everything fails since its hard to make vaccines. I mean.... We d still don't have a vaccine to the common cold. Our influenza vaccines are always hit or miss.

Plus they aren't able to manufacture known drugs like remdesvir, do you really think they can create something and produce 300 million doses within a year?

I mean....i literally don't have bare minimum n95s at work. If we can't even get ppe in months, can we really get a vaccine and distribute it to 300+ million people?
your post shows that you know nothing about vaccines or virus.

Making a coronavirus vaccine is less problematic than HIV , for many reasons ( I’m not an expert).

The common cold can be caused by more than 200 different viruses.

There are currently around 100 COVID vaccines in development, with some working in a closely related monkey species and going into trials.

We are very good at making flu vaccines. The problem is guessing the annual strain before it hits.

In summary, stop thinking you know anything about stuff you have not studied yourself. Definitely don’t try and think you know anything that gives you an edge on the markets
The irony is im a physician who likely knows a lot more about vaccines and viruses than most people. I still don't think i have an edge on the market which is why i DCA. It literally takes 10 years to bring a drug to market from research and development to actually being used. It's just unheard of creating an effective vaccine within months.

The common cold can be hundreds, but in reality its 2-3 viruses that cause it most of the time - rhinovirus, corona virus (before the novel strain) is essentially 50 percent of common colds. And i know the problem is predicting the drifting/shifting antigens of the flu. But guess what, to get an effective vaccine by the end of the year, they also have to guess which one vaccine is likely to be most effective and start Mass producing before having safety and efficacy data. So there can be hundreds of trials, but eventually you have to pick one to mass produce out of these hundreds, and they very well can be completely wrong.

And hiv like corona viruses happens to be a single stranded rna that requires reverse transcriptase enzynes and host machinery to replicate the virus. Like any virus, they both have an envelope, a core, and rna strands - much more similar than different. One targets the T4 helper cells, the other targets the ace receptor. The point I'm making is if it was that easy to make vaccines or have block buster drugs to treat viruses then there are plenty of diseases caused by viruses that have no vaccines.

I think we're in for the long haul from a medical stand point.
Okay, so you do seem to know a thing or two about viral infections :)

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