Anyone preparing to sell all their stock holdings to raise cash?

[kareysue]

Since the market is getting close again to the highs set early this year do you guys plan to sell into the rally tomorrow and raise cash so during the next downturn we will have more cash to buy stocks?

[Jack FFR1846]

Uh.....no.

[kareysue]

Uh.....no.

With the way the economy is going you don't think the market will fall back to the lows of march 17?

[dmcmahon]

I'm not looking to raise cash. I am looking at more repositioning within the equity allocation though. I will probably cash out half my allocation to VTI and put it into the S&P 500, effectively cutting my exposure to small caps in half. I don't plan to do this for several more weeks, though.

[arcticpineapplecorp.]

sounds like you're trying to time the market. this is bogleheads, not markettimerheads. Why would I sell all to raise cash? Because I'm out of cash and can't put food on table or because I'm trying to get greedy and wait for a big drop to buy back in?

stock holdings are long term investments. They're not for day trading.

I hold stocks for the long run.

I hold stocks to sell in retirement (slowly and over decades as in from 70-100 years of age). Since that's not even starting for another 20 years away, why would I sell now if I don't need the money now?

What do you know that everybody doesn't already know? In other words, you think the market's gonna fall again (maybe it will, maybe it won't. let's put that aside for the moment). Don't others think that too? If they do, then why hasn't the market already fallen?

Do you think you're smarter than everyone else?

Do you think you're the only one who thinks he's smarter than others?

Can all the children be above average?

What if you sell and the market doesn't go down as you expect, but instead it goes up. Then what? You gonna buy high after having sold lower?

Do you have an predetermined asset allocation? Do you have an IPS? If not, get one: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investm ... _statement

Have you ever gotten the return of the market? Most don't, because they're too busy trying to beat the market. Why don't you try to get the return of the market first before trying any funny business?

[anon_investor]

I'm not looking to raise cash. I am looking at more repositioning within the equity allocation though. I will probably cash out half my allocation to VTI and put it into the S&P 500, effectively cutting my exposure to small caps in half. I don't plan to do this for several more weeks, though.

Hopefully this is being done in conjunction with tax loss harvesting?

[birdog]

Markettimerheads! ......and to that I simply say “thank you”.

[Sandtrap]

Since the market is getting close again to the highs set early this year do you guys plan to sell into the rally tomorrow and raise cash so during the next downturn we will have more cash to buy stocks?

If I do anything besides nothing, it will be after the markets recover to early February 2020 levels per DW and I adjusting our glide path per our IPS. Until then, not reacting to market movements.

OP: if you leave the market now and the bottom is behind us, then what?

j

[Trader Joe]

Since the market is getting close again to the highs set early this year do you guys plan to sell into the rally tomorrow and raise cash so during the next downturn we will have more cash to buy stocks?

No, not at all.

[dmcmahon]

I'm not looking to raise cash. I am looking at more repositioning within the equity allocation though. I will probably cash out half my allocation to VTI and put it into the S&P 500, effectively cutting my exposure to small caps in half. I don't plan to do this for several more weeks, though.

Hopefully this is being done in conjunction with tax loss harvesting?

Complex topic. Prior to the crisis I had taken the decision to tax-gain harvest about half of my portfolio, and just pay the tax. The rationale was to hedge against possible adverse changes in tax policy towards investment income. I view the odds as 50/50, and I don’t want to be part of a stampede late in the year. So I determined to realize 50% of my gains this year, pay tax at today’s rates, reduce the size of my taxable estate, and give up very little because I would be funding the tax payments from my bond ladder, which is earning, net of high marginal taxes, less than 100bp (and going forward seemingly even lower!). This is a hedging strategy plain & simple, and unfortunately despite the outsized effect taxes have on investment returns, we’re allowed to talk about every other type of risk except this one here. I asked myself this one question late last year: is my tax rate on investment income ever going to be lower than it is right now? The answer was no, so I asked the next question: how much return would you be giving up to pay the tax now? The answer at the time was about 80bp, and it’s now about 10bp.

[bugleheadd]

Since the market is getting close again to the highs set early this year do you guys plan to sell into the rally tomorrow and raise cash so during the next downturn we will have more cash to buy stocks?

let me when is the next downturn going to be and how much is it going to drop, so i can mark my calendar

[White Coat Investor]

Uh.....no.

With the way the economy is going you don't think the market will fall back to the lows of march 17?

Your crystal ball seems less cloudy than mine.

[Brianmcg321]

Since the market is getting close again to the highs set early this year do you guys plan to sell into the rally tomorrow and raise cash so during the next downturn we will have more cash to buy stocks?

When is the next downturn going to be?

What if it's fifteen years from now?

[barberakb]

All of it? heck no

[annu]

I sure hope too, keeping fingers crossed that market will jump based on vaccine news ..

[venkman]

I'm not selling anything extra, but I have been aggressively rebalancing into the rally. If the market jumps up tomorrow, I'll be selling off enough to end the day at my AA. I think the market is getting excited about the virus starting to peak, and assuming social distancing is going to start tapering off soon. But I don't see how it can happen until there's a vaccine, and that could take a year or more.

If I'm wrong, I'll have ended up selling at this level the same amount I bought at this level on the way down, so it'll just be a wash.

[jharkin]

Markettimerheads! ......and to that I simply say “thank you”.

Really does feel like I’m reading that site the last few months. I miss jack.

[StormShadow]

Uh.....no.

With the way the economy is going you don't think the market will fall back to the lows of march 17?

My hunch is no. Not any time soon.

It’ll dip and jump periodically, but overall I expect it to trend upwards until the next unrelated market recession X years in the future.

[Jack FFR1846]

Uh.....no.

With the way the economy is going you don't think the market will fall back to the lows of march 17?

Uh.....no.

[Third Son]

Since the market is getting close again to the highs set early this year do you guys plan to sell into the rally tomorrow and raise cash so during the next downturn we will have more cash to buy stocks?

I have the goldilocks amount of cash..... Just right. But then I am retired so I already figured out all of my needs for the next couple of years.

[jasperhobbs]

Since the market is getting close again to the highs set early this year do you guys plan to sell into the rally tomorrow and raise cash so during the next downturn we will have more cash to buy stocks?

We are a long way from the highs this year. I don't see the DOW getting to 29,000 but what do I know.

[nisiprius]

I don't think people who are "inspired by Jack Bogle" would do a thing like that. I wouldn't, and I'm not.

Just in case you are not sure what I mean by that: John C. Bogle was the founder of Vanguard, which created the first index fund. Of all of Bogle's maxims, "Stay the course" was probably the one he said most often. In fact that is the title of the last book he wrote. A typical piece of Bogle advice was:

There are an infinite number of strategies worse than this one: Commit, over a period of a few years, half of your assets to a stock index fund and half to a bond index fund. Ignore interim fluctuations in their net asset values. Hold your positions for as long as you live, subject only to infrequent and marginal adjustments as your circumstances change. When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest one.

Although the stock market’s wild and wooly odyssey since I wrote them makes those words seem an eon away, I believe more than ever in that basic principle: Rely heavily on index funds, and begin with the idea of a 50/50 bond/stock ratio, adjusting the ratio in accordance with your own financial profile.

[mortfree]

What do you mean by stocks - like Apple, google, Tesla?

Or do you mean stock index funds like VTI/VTSAX, S&P 500?

If individual stocks then people will tell you to sell.

[livesoft]

Since the market is getting close again to the highs set early this year do you guys plan to sell into the rally tomorrow and raise cash so during the next downturn we will have more cash to buy stocks?

Your thread title is "sell all", but your question in your post is different. If I hit my rebalancing trigger on the upside,then indeed yes, I will rebalance from equities into bonds.

Make the plan, execute the plan, expect the plan to go off the rails, throw away the plan.

[watchnerd]

Since the market is getting close again to the highs set early this year do you guys plan to sell into the rally tomorrow and raise cash so during the next downturn we will have more cash to buy stocks?

There's going to be a rally today?

[ThunderTurtle]

Since the market is getting close again to the highs set early this year do you guys plan to sell into the rally tomorrow and raise cash so during the next downturn we will have more cash to buy stocks?

There's going to be a rally today?

[watchnerd]

Since the market is getting close again to the highs set early this year do you guys plan to sell into the rally tomorrow and raise cash so during the next downturn we will have more cash to buy stocks?

There's going to be a rally today?

My bad for being behind on reading market timing newsletters.

[dukeblue219]

There's going to be a rally today?

That was probably the most reasonable part of this whole thread actually, given where futures were sitting all night.

[watchnerd]

There's going to be a rally today?

That was probably the most reasonable part of this whole thread actually, given where futures were sitting all night.

Oh I never both to look at futures because I never do anything about what they do or don't say.

[striker79]

Mark Cuban is doing that because he is a billionaire and can better use that money elsewhere. Buffett has been reportedly raising lots of cash as well, not sure what his plans are. Most people invest over their careers, 30+ years, within the next couple years will likely have been a great time to been having invested in the market. Raising cash to pinpoint a bottom is a fool's game. Getting a job or additional income right now so that you have more to invest into the market over the next couple years would be a much smarter thing. The global game over the past 1o years has been low interest rates and stimulus to keep markets up, I don't see that trend ending. We've had very little inflation, could be because other large economies also played the same game and also because the US dollar carries so much faith/strength. You may want to sell to raise cash for other investments you like better or for other personal needs, but to raise it to time a re-entry point for the next bottom is foolish.

[birdog]

My bad for being behind on reading market timing newsletters.

The best market timer newsletter is put out by the markettimerheads forum.

[watchnerd]

Mark Cuban is doing that because he is a billionaire and can better use that money elsewhere. Buffett has been reportedly raising lots of cash as well, not sure what his plans are. Most people invest over their careers, 30+ years, within the next couple years will likely have been a great time to been having invested in the market. Raising cash to pinpoint a bottom is a fool's game. Getting a job or additional income right now so that you have more to invest into the market over the next couple years would be a much smarter thing. The global game over the past 1o years has been low interest rates and stimulus to keep markets up, I don't see that trend ending. We've had very little inflation, could be because other large economies also played the same game and also because the US dollar carries so much faith/strength. You may want to sell to raise cash for other investments you like better or for other personal needs, but to raise it to time a re-entry point for the next bottom is foolish.

Elsewhere almost certainly meaning "outside public markets".

I'm sympathetic to this. We have a working capital pool that is ear-marked for illiquid, private investments. Our IPS allows that it *can* be invested in public markets if they get cheap enough, but we haven't hit that point yet.

[watchnerd]

My bad for being behind on reading market timing newsletters.

The best market timer newsletter is put out by the markettimerheads forum.

Maybe we can make a subforum for them here, too, so they'll feel at home in their own safe space.

[ChowYunPhat]

We've been tilting towards more cash for about a year, and with the obvious drop in equities we're probably 8-9% in cash at this time. The additional cash is an added blessing as we work in an industry that would be considered a high risk to labor. I'm not sure if we'll make it out of this unscathed.

As a future consideration, we don't know if RE will be a reality. But we'll be continue to keep cash allocation a bit higher to combat sequence of returns risk which could arise in a RE outcome.

Stay safe everyone and enjoy the outdoors if you're able. There's been some beautiful weather as of late.

CYP

[delamer]

At this moment, the S&P 500 is down about 17% from its all-time high in February.

How is that “getting close?”

[260chrisb]

No. I have a few stock holdings but have no need to sell them or anything else at this point. Today I partially funded my Roth, partially funded my HSA, bought bonds in my taxable, and contributed to my 401K. My HSA isn't investable so it's technically raising cash and my 401K contributions went to cash because I want my percentage of cash to be higher as I get closer to retirement so that I have money that isn't exposed to the markets that I can withdraw in the event of a down market in 2 years.

On a separate note; why would anyone sell all their holdings to raise cash? I'm guessing to buy different investments? Also, I'm not good at math and while I know the market is up today, are we not still 15% or more from the top? Being 2-3% away is close to me, not 15%.

[striker79]

I dont think most people realize how important the FED buying all these corporate bonds on March 23rd was. A corporate debt bubble was going to pop...

See this video below which was made March 6th https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deZ83WxKJk0

We live in a world where the FED can manipulate markets to avoid crashes or recover quickly. FED can buy stocks too if it needs to.