The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

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Newieinvestor
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The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Newieinvestor » Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:18 am

I'm guessing a number of people are in my situation of having a chunk of money (about 10K in my case) that they'd like to invest in the market but would ideally like to do so when the market is near bottom. Curious when people think this will be.

Now?
After a few weeks once the East Coast has greater signs of improvement?
After a few months when most US cities have had their surge?
In many months when other countries are past their surge?
Right before the vaccine is available in over a year?

What I understand is that:

1) No one can accurately predict when this happens (i.e. no one can "time the market.")

2) Yet I still need to decide when to put this money in the market.

I am planning on putting this money in 70% stocks (VTSAX) and 30% bonds (VBTLX) although I have a high risk tolerance and am in my 30s and would be open to 100% stocks with the hope I'd be riding the wave up.

Would love some advice/thoughts! Thanks!

Silk McCue
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Silk McCue » Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:33 am

March 23, 2020.

Cheers

Goal33
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Goal33 » Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:35 am

Silk McCue wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:33 am
March 23, 2020.

Cheers
+1
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theorist
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by theorist » Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:39 am

I would just advise that your investment strategy should NOT depend on being able to answer this question (or analogues) with any accuracy.

I’d invest the money now (DCA over a few weeks if you’re uncomfortable with lump sum), and then focus on earning the next 10K to put in!

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nps
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by nps » Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:42 am

Newieinvestor wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:18 am
Now?
By definition, it cannot be "now."

mptfan
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by mptfan » Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:43 am

Goal33 wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:35 am
Silk McCue wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:33 am
March 23, 2020.

Cheers
+1
+2

retired@50
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by retired@50 » Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:45 am

Newieinvestor wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:18 am
my situation of having a chunk of money (about 10K in my case)
...
I still need to decide when to put this money in the market.
...
I have a high risk tolerance and am in my 30s
...
Would love some advice/thoughts! Thanks!
Given the points shown above:

Assuming you don't need the money to beef up your emergency fund, I'd suggest you lump sum the money in today.

Unless, somehow, you think it will be worth less in 30 years when you actually need the money in retirement. Putting the money to work now will give it plenty of time to grow. Spending excess mental cycles over this "timing" is an exercise in futility. Move on to something more productive.

Regards,
Last edited by retired@50 on Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
This is one person's opinion. Nothing more.

bogledogle
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by bogledogle » Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:46 am

If I knew the answer to that. I would not be hangin with you peasants! :twisted: :moneybag

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by ruralavalon » Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:47 am

mptfan wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:43 am
Goal33 wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:35 am
Silk McCue wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:33 am
March 23, 2020.

Cheers
+1
+2
+ 3, that would be my guess too.

2) Yet I still need to decide when to put this money in the market.
I suggest now.
Last edited by ruralavalon on Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by striker79 » Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:49 am

If we base it on fear and pessimism we have a very long way to go. Many people are viewing this as a buying opportunity to still, I dont think there is much fear or pessimism. Is this the new normal since we know the FED will do bailouts and whatever it can to keep the market up? Or can investors still have fear like they used to in the last financial crisis? To me the million dollar question is can we ever have fear like we used to, knowing that the FED will bail us out. We were having several circuit breaker days before the fed stimulus.

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by TropikThunder » Wed Apr 15, 2020 12:07 pm

striker79 wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:49 am
If we base it on fear and pessimism we have a very long way to go. Many people are viewing this as a buying opportunity to still, I dont think there is much fear or pessimism. Is this the new normal since we know the FED will do bailouts and whatever it can to keep the market up? Or can investors still have fear like they used to in the last financial crisis? To me the million dollar question is can we ever have fear like we used to, knowing that the FED will bail us out. We were having several circuit breaker days before the fed stimulus.
Unless you think the $10,000 OP referred to is the entire balance of all the money he will ever be able to invest, then none of this has any relevance. Unless you think the market TODAY is higher than it will be for OP’s retirement, they should just get it in.

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Newieinvestor
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Newieinvestor » Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:44 pm

Thanks everyone for your replies! You're right that it's really the long term that matters so there's no meaningful reason to wait.

It's interesting that so many people are thinking that we've already had our bottom. It's all speculation, but I've definitely heard others surmise that things may get worse as time goes on as people drain their savings being out of work, more business have to shut down, and some states/countries who are currently in denial see how bad things really are...

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Silk McCue » Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:11 pm

Newieinvestor wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:44 pm
Thanks everyone for your replies! You're right that it's really the long term that matters so there's no meaningful reason to wait.

It's interesting that so many people are thinking that we've already had our bottom. It's all speculation, but I've definitely heard others surmise that things may get worse as time goes on as people drain their savings being out of work, more business have to shut down, and some states/countries who are currently in denial see how bad things really are...
Just because I gave you a date doesn't mean I would bet real money on it not being possible for it to go lower.

Cheers

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Jozxyqk » Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:12 pm

ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:47 am
mptfan wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:43 am
Goal33 wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:35 am
Silk McCue wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:33 am
March 23, 2020.

Cheers
+1
+2
+ 3, that would be my guess too.

2) Yet I still need to decide when to put this money in the market.
I suggest now.
I am surprised at the number of long-time forum members endorsing this prediction, particularly to a very new poster who may be very disappointed in the entirely possible event it turns out to be wrong.

OP, the smart money is on putting your funds in the market. But nobody here can tell you whether we will hit new lows. If, as it seems may be the case, it will be difficult for you to stomach a big drop right after you put in your funds, consider putting in $1,000/week until it's all in. Taking this approach rather than lump-summing it in will almost certainly make no difference over the course of many years of investment, and may help you sleep better during these difficult times.

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Silk McCue » Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:19 pm

Jozxyqk wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:12 pm

I am surprised at the number of long-time forum members endorsing this prediction, particularly to a very new poster who may be very disappointed in the entirely possible event it turns out to be wrong.

OP, the smart money is on putting your funds in the market. But nobody here can tell you whether we will hit new lows. If, as it seems may be the case, it will be difficult for you to stomach a big drop right after you put in your funds, consider putting in $1,000/week until it's all in. Taking this approach rather than lump-summing it in will almost certainly make no difference over the course of many years of investment, and may help you sleep better during these difficult times.
The OP isn't a new poster and has been on this site since 2017. They are putting their money into the market for 30 years so today is a great day to do that. They can also type lump sum or DCA in the search bar and find every opinion every given on the subject.

Cheers

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by White Coat Investor » Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:23 pm

Newieinvestor wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:18 am
I'm guessing a number of people are in my situation of having a chunk of money (about 10K in my case) that they'd like to invest in the market but would ideally like to do so when the market is near bottom. Curious when people think this will be.

Now?
After a few weeks once the East Coast has greater signs of improvement?
After a few months when most US cities have had their surge?
In many months when other countries are past their surge?
Right before the vaccine is available in over a year?

What I understand is that:

1) No one can accurately predict when this happens (i.e. no one can "time the market.")

2) Yet I still need to decide when to put this money in the market.

I am planning on putting this money in 70% stocks (VTSAX) and 30% bonds (VBTLX) although I have a high risk tolerance and am in my 30s and would be open to 100% stocks with the hope I'd be riding the wave up.

Would love some advice/thoughts! Thanks!
I put in my monthly investment on Monday. My last monthly investment was March 6th. My next will be the first week of May.

My advice is to get a solid written investment plan and then follow it and quit stressing yourself out every month wondering which way the market will go. In the only time period that should matter to you, the market will go up.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by bovineplane » Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:24 pm

If anyone knew the answer to this question thy could make a zillion dollars.

Barsoom
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Barsoom » Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:28 pm

Newieinvestor wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:44 pm
Thanks everyone for your replies! You're right that it's really the long term that matters so there's no meaningful reason to wait.

It's interesting that so many people are thinking that we've already had our bottom. It's all speculation, but I've definitely heard others surmise that things may get worse as time goes on as people drain their savings being out of work, more business have to shut down, and some states/countries who are currently in denial see how bad things really are...
I'd say that to your question of when will the market bottom out, I'd wait until about 30% of the Q1 earnings reports come in over the next few weeks to find out which way things will be going.

-B

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by PDX_Traveler » Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:32 pm

Newieinvestor wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:18 am
Now?
After a few weeks once the East Coast has greater signs of improvement?
After a few months when most US cities have had their surge?
In many months when other countries are past their surge?
Right before the vaccine is available in over a year?

What I understand is that:

1) No one can accurately predict when this happens (i.e. no one can "time the market.")

2) Yet I still need to decide when to put this money in the market.
All I can add is to your point # 1):
1a. The 'market' is made of millions of agents operating on (different levels of) available information.
1b. In times of great dislocation, when information and its implications are not fully known, the 'market' pricing becomes a crapshoot - witness what happened in March.
1c. More people appear to believe the shape of things is becoming clearer (whether the shape is good or bad), and so market moves are starting to appear more normal.
1d. Two things about that though - one, in my opinion it's anybody's guess still as to whether we know enough about the infection and the public health implications; two - 'normal' pricing perhaps only means normal bear market pricing swings, which may be not as manic as the uncertainty driven swings of the past few weeks

As to your point 2), that doesn't depend on the market - it depends on your situation and risk tolerance etc. In my 30s I'd feel quite comfortable putting money I don't need for ~30 years into a 70/30 or even more equity weighted allocation. Being in my late 50s and a few years from possible retirement I'm planning more along the lines of the Kitces 'bond tent' approach of letting equity exposure drift downwards 60%-50%-45% before rising again. I'd have liked the drifting to be less forced by equity market downward moves and more by proactive moves to bonds, but events are what they are, I guess :annoyed

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Jozxyqk » Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:47 pm

Silk McCue wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:19 pm
Jozxyqk wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:12 pm

I am surprised at the number of long-time forum members endorsing this prediction, particularly to a very new poster who may be very disappointed in the entirely possible event it turns out to be wrong.

OP, the smart money is on putting your funds in the market. But nobody here can tell you whether we will hit new lows. If, as it seems may be the case, it will be difficult for you to stomach a big drop right after you put in your funds, consider putting in $1,000/week until it's all in. Taking this approach rather than lump-summing it in will almost certainly make no difference over the course of many years of investment, and may help you sleep better during these difficult times.
The OP isn't a new poster and has been on this site since 2017. They are putting their money into the market for 30 years so today is a great day to do that. They can also type lump sum or DCA in the search bar and find every opinion every given on the subject.

Cheers
Fair point re: OP's newness (I just glanced at the number of posts and the username). I still don't think it's good forum behavior to make unserious predictions to someone who's looking for help and reassurance.

Your second two sentences are accurate, but don't have anything to do with where the bottom was or will be.

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Silk McCue » Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:04 pm

Jozxyqk wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:47 pm

Fair point re: OP's newness (I just glanced at the number of posts and the username). I still don't think it's good forum behavior to make unserious predictions to someone who's looking for help and reassurance.

Your second two sentences are accurate, but don't have anything to do with where the bottom was or will be.
Were I charging by the hour I would write very serious answers to every question and provide point counterpoint perspectives.

I'm good with March 23, 2020 because its the only known date so far that has an excellent chance of winning in its category.

Cheers

dreamrider
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by dreamrider » Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:20 pm

After a few months when most US cities have had their surge.

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by tetractys » Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:20 pm

Sometimes the market “climbs a wall of worry.”

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Jozxyqk » Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:25 pm

Silk McCue wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:04 pm
Jozxyqk wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:47 pm

Fair point re: OP's newness (I just glanced at the number of posts and the username). I still don't think it's good forum behavior to make unserious predictions to someone who's looking for help and reassurance.

Your second two sentences are accurate, but don't have anything to do with where the bottom was or will be.
Were I charging by the hour I would write very serious answers to every question and provide point counterpoint perspectives.

I'm good with March 23, 2020 because its the only known date so far that has an excellent chance of winning in its category.

Cheers
OP -- I think you've got a handle on this, but please note as Silk indicates above that you should not take his responses (or the responses of the other "predictors") seriously.

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Silk McCue » Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:37 pm

Jozxyqk wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:25 pm


OP -- I think you've got a handle on this, but please note as Silk indicates above that you should not take his responses (or the responses of the other "predictors") seriously.
Your intervention with the OP on my behalf and others is unnecessary and for me is not appreciated. I expect that OP is fully capable of reaching their own conclusions regarding our responses.

Cheers
Last edited by Silk McCue on Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Beach
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Beach » Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:37 pm

When do quarterly earnings start coming out? They are going to be terrible

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by nps » Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:46 pm

Beach wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:37 pm
When do quarterly earnings start coming out? They are going to be terrible
They already have

nix4me
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by nix4me » Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:59 pm

i heard it bottomed out a few years ago. you missed it.

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Spirit Rider » Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:03 pm

The SARS-CoV-2 virus pandemic is the symptom of the current stock market gyrations. The end of the pandemic no more indicative of the future longer term performance of the market.

At this point no one really knows what the long term effects will be on the U.S. and World economies. Only after that plays out and the bottom has already happened will we know when it occured.

This well established refrain bears repeating; "Nobody knows nothin."

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by VINNY » Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:27 pm

The market will bottom on April 23rd, 2020.

If you are buying ETF's, then the bottom will be at 1:19 PM eastern standard time that day.

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by nisiprius » Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:37 pm

The million-dollar question is, "how can I invest wisely without knowing when the market will bottom out?"
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by index245 » Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:43 pm

All conjecture but hey, you asked:

I'm going with late summer. Based on median number of days from outset of bear market to final low (referring to S&P500, the recent belle of the ball). I'm guessing that some of the biggest "loser" segments will bottom earlier (Emerging Markets, Developed Markets, Small Cap Value, Large Cap Value).

I'm not convinced we've bottomed yet because (a) very little capitulation (except for International and small cap value =) and (b) extremely high market (S&P500) valuation (near dot com levels) before the virus. A lot to work through regardless of stimulus.

I'm buying all the way through regardless as best I can.

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by galawdawg » Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:51 pm

Newieinvestor wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:44 pm
It's all speculation...
You answered your own question. :wink:

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by valleyrock » Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:53 pm

The bottom in the near term:

Will be when one of two things happen:
1. There's an accurate, widespread (read: easy to get everywhere) test for the virus, or
2. When there's an effective vaccine.
Economic activity won't reactivate (nor roll out geographically) until 1. or 2. occur. If there's
an attempt to reactivate economic activity earlier than that, the chances are very high that there
will be new lows not long after that. Besides, states like NY and California aren't going to go
there until 1. or 2. occur. They have too much invested, and too much to lose, what
with being economic powerhouses and all.
Based on this analysis, and on rumblings from the ruminators, this means the bottom
will likely be sometime around November 3.

The bottom in the long term: nobody knows nuthin'.

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Jozxyqk » Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:09 pm

Silk McCue wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:37 pm
Jozxyqk wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:25 pm


OP -- I think you've got a handle on this, but please note as Silk indicates above that you should not take his responses (or the responses of the other "predictors") seriously.
Your intervention with the OP on my behalf and others is unnecessary and for me is not appreciated. I expect that OP is fully capable of reaching their own conclusions regarding our responses.

Cheers
I viewed your advice as poor and misleading, and you confirmed that it was not serious. I think this is worth pointing out to OP. You're free to disagree.

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Silk McCue » Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:20 pm

Jozxyqk wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:09 pm

I viewed your advice as poor and misleading, and you confirmed that it was not serious. I think this is worth pointing out to OP. You're free to disagree.
Just stop. You have lost perspective and are making this personal.

Cheers

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Pinotage » Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:31 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:37 pm
The million-dollar question is, "how can I invest wisely without knowing when the market will bottom out?"
Outstanding post, and cuts to the heart of the whole discussion.

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by xerxes101 » Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:33 pm

Silk McCue wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:33 am
March 23, 2020.

Cheers
+1 it's come and gone, and if you don't think so you are fighting the Fed.

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Jozxyqk » Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:37 pm

Silk McCue wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:20 pm
Jozxyqk wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:09 pm

I viewed your advice as poor and misleading, and you confirmed that it was not serious. I think this is worth pointing out to OP. You're free to disagree.
Just stop. You have lost perspective and are making this personal.

Cheers
I do think you're taking this a little too personally, but I think our points have been made. Nothing further necessary. All the best.

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by geerhardusvos » Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:40 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:37 pm
The million-dollar question is, "how can I invest wisely without knowing when the market will bottom out?"
ding ding ding ding
VTSAX and chill

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watchnerd
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by watchnerd » Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:41 pm

April 16, 2020.

Now go invest.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by BV3273 » Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:42 pm

I think we’re going to start dropping and will continue to drop into the summer. I’m continuing to buy as per usual. My company dropped our 401k match which stinks but it is what it is. If you’re looking wha to do with your sum of money I’d say split the difference - half now and DCA the rest.

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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by clown » Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:59 pm

To OP - Since you are in your 30s, I think you should be 100% in equities. Here's why: It all depends on how you view "risk."

Some folks think risk is when the price goes down, and moan that they lost money. I would argue that if you owned 100 shares of XYZ yesterday and you still own 100 shares of XYZ today but the market went down, there was no loss -- just a difference in what you could sell for, which is immaterial because you are not going to sell.

Others think risk is when the assets aren't there when you need them, which is the veiw I happen to take. Over the next 30 years, I believe it is highly likely that equities will outperform bonds -- particularly considering that interest rates will go up, which means bond prices will go down.

So if you hold 100% in well diversified equities and if you can disregard changes in market prices, 100% equities is the way to go. Just make sure it is a broad based holding -- not just one industry or, worse yet, one company.

Engaging in sloth
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Engaging in sloth » Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:14 pm

Besides virus concerns- Bottom probably after qtr 2 earnings reporting; or if enough investors hate November's election results- the day after election day- or whenever they finish counting all the ballots and final #'s official for congress and presidency. :confused

averagedude
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by averagedude » Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:21 pm

White Coat Investor wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:23 pm
Newieinvestor wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:18 am
I'm guessing a number of people are in my situation of having a chunk of money (about 10K in my case) that they'd like to invest in the market but would ideally like to do so when the market is near bottom. Curious when people think this will be.

Now?
After a few weeks once the East Coast has greater signs of improvement?
After a few months when most US cities have had their surge?
In many months when other countries are past their surge?
Right before the vaccine is available in over a year?

What I understand is that:

1) No one can accurately predict when this happens (i.e. no one can "time the market.")

2) Yet I still need to decide when to put this money in the market.

I am planning on putting this money in 70% stocks (VTSAX) and 30% bonds (VBTLX) although I have a high risk tolerance and am in my 30s and would be open to 100% stocks with the hope I'd be riding the wave up.

Would love some advice/thoughts! Thanks!
I put in my monthly investment on Monday. My last monthly investment was March 6th. My next will be the first week of May.

My advice is to get a solid written investment plan and then follow it and quit stressing yourself out every month wondering which way the market will go. In the only time period that should matter to you, the market will go up.
Good advice. Rather the bottom is 20% down or 25% down, will it really be a goal breaker either way over the long term. Focus on the goal, not optimization.

JD101
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by JD101 » Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:49 pm

Yes, you can not predict the market but I believe that is cliche. during normal economic cycles yes you can't predict and timing wont work. But the present time is not usual time by any stretch of imagination. We will only know its full effect within a year or so. Even within one year we may not know the full effect but by then market would have adjusted a lot more to current crisis than it is factoring in various things now. I would definitely DCA over a period of time so your buying cost will be somewhat average. In this situation, I am more about not losing shirt than making 10% return. There is only so much upward potential between now and say 2 years but downward potential is far more.

pkcrafter
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by pkcrafter » Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:55 pm

Jozxyqk, don't forget the original poster, Newieinvestor, asked this question --
I'm guessing a number of people are in my situation of having a chunk of money (about 10K in my case) that they'd like to invest in the market but would ideally like to do so when the market is near bottom. Curious when people think this will be.
Silk McCue wasn't the only poster to come up with March 23, so why single him out? I also think March 23 was probably the bottom, unless more new and surprising negative information comes in. Investors do not like shock surprises and new problems. The first reaction is get out, then wait and see.

The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?


bovineplane:
If anyone knew the answer to this question thy could make a zillion dollars.
Right. The only problem is they wouldn't tell anyone else.

by Newieinvestor » Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:18 am
I'm guessing a number of people are in my situation of having a chunk of money (about 10K in my case) that they'd like to invest in the market but would ideally like to do so when the market is near bottom. Curious when people think this will be.

1) No one can accurately predict when this happens (i.e. no one can "time the market.") :thumbsup

2) Yet I still need to decide when to put this money in the market.

Definitely start now. You can dollar cost average in if you want, but I would recommend putting in 50% to start and adding the rest on a set timetable. Eliminate the speculation and guessing and use a plan.

I am planning on putting this money in 70% stocks (VTSAX) and 30% bonds (VBTLX) although I have a high risk tolerance and am in my 30s and would be open to 100% stocks with the hope I'd be riding the wave up.

You are not displaying any indications you can actually handle 100% stock. I think 70/30 is much better. Use it, hold it for 10-15 years or until there are some major changes to you personal situation.

Paul
Last edited by pkcrafter on Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.

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F150HD
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by F150HD » Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:57 pm

Goal33 wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:35 am
Silk McCue wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:33 am
March 23, 2020.

Cheers
+1
+1 :beer

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watchnerd
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by watchnerd » Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:05 pm

I can't believe some of you are arguing with each other about a question nobody knows the answer to.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

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Nicolas Perrault
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Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

Post by Nicolas Perrault » Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:11 pm

Newieinvestor wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:18 am
2) Yet I still need to decide when to put this money in the market.
A good time to invest was on 8 July 1932. Another good time is now. Just like any other time.

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